Tuesday, January 27th, 2009...6:53 am
Countdown to 2010: Day 520
My posts (here and here) from yesterday morning will raise questions in the minds of some of our readers. I want to anticipate a few of those questions and provide answers below. But more importantly, I want to take a moment, just passing mid-season, for the second installment of our Countdown to 2010 series. This helicopter view is not arbitrary, however. It’s in light of the first 43 games, and has an eye toward the Spurs current roster deficiencies. Let’s start there.
The Spurs are 21-3 against sub .500 teams; they are 8-11 against those with record of plus .500. Some number crunchers maintain the Spurs have played the easiest first half schedule, which was timely given the injury-stricken roster. Their roster is still mired with issues, like the need to add another big and inconsistent play at wing, but the Spurs have limited assets with which to address these problems. Granting that the Spurs are still rounding into form after injury and that they typically peek late, there remains cause for concern.
With regard to the Spurs inconsistent wing play, more alert Spurs followers, as many of our readers appear to be, might want to know about the possibility of ending Malik Hairston’s sojourn in Austin in favor of big league minutes. Hairston is playing well in the D-League, being previously named NBDL player of the week. His averages are solid, and he’s clutch like Big Shot Rog. On the season, Hairston has participated in no fewer than 3 big time shots, either to win games or force an overtime that eventually won the game. Earlier this month, be dropped 43 on the 14ers in a come from behind victory. In a past post, I said that he might approximate Ime Udoka’s stats, even now. But it’s worth reminding ourselves that George Hill is further along than Hairston, and some games George Hill’s rookie-ness is hard to watch. It might not hurt the Spurs to give Hairston a few minutes per game, but I suspect he helps them more in Austin. This is a nice way of saying if you want to see Hairston play this season, then go to a Toros game. Otherwise, you’ll have to wait until next year.
The main reason my mind turned to Carlos Delfino yesterday is that in order for the Spurs to trade/sign players that will genuinely improve their rotation, they’ll need a bit of luck and few moments of creativity. The Spurs simply don’t have the assets to otherwise land an impact player. An NBDL call up will not resolve their issues, and neither will trading for another team’s 12th man. They need to find a player or two who will impact the rotation.
The Ian Mahinmi injury is at once unimportant and a kick to the teeth. It’s unimportant because Mahinmi hasn’t played an NBA minute this season. All Spurs fans hope the best for him, and there is no reason that he won’t be in the rotation next season, but the Spurs are the same team now as they were before the news of surgery. But, here’s the boot to the grill, if he held any trade value, it’s now depreciated. Meanwhile Ian Mahinmi’s development is set back, and he continues to eat a roster spot.
But trade proposals and free agent fantasizing are just fan-boy side talk. There is a bigger question here, and one which the Spurs must ask themselves as we approach the trade deadline. Namely, is it worth mortgaging their future to seriously compete for championships now? As things currently stand, the Spurs are players in the 2010 free agent market. They’ve smartly engineered their cap with an eye toward the much ballyhooed market of 2010-although this comes with an important qualifier. If Manu Ginobili is extended this summer, much of their 2010 cap space will dissipate. Nevertheless, the Spurs will have money to spend in 2010. The question before them is this: do they stay the course and preserve cap for 2010 or are they willing to trade for a player that will eat into their cap flexibility?
To ask the question differently, does Team Duncan believe that they must upgrade their core (2010) or simply upgrade their supporting cast (trade now) in order to win over the balance of Duncan’s contract (2012)? If the Spurs choose an expensive supporting cast (trade now) over an expensive star later (2010), then they are saying they’ll wait until Duncan’s final year, at least, before signing their next max level player. Courtesy of Shamsports, here is the bottom line on their cap projections (remember, Manu Ginobili’s extension this summer is the major wild card and that these numbers are ballpark approximations):
| Current |
09/10 |
10/11 |
11/12 |
12/13 |
||
| Salaries | $68, 134, 289 | $70, 309, 916 | $34, 745, 399 | $22, 690, 906 | $0 | |
| w/o options | $68, 134, 289 | $67, 809, 916 | $32, 350, 000 | $21, 300, 000 | $0 |
Up to this point, and not counting Duncan, Parker and the recent rookies, the Spurs have only taken on contracts that expire by 2010. But their long term cap is healthy enough that they could simply delay their big reload until 2011/12 or 12/13. Trade Machine maestros, bare this in mind.
What do I think they should do? It honestly depends on my mood, and whether the Spurs won or lost the night before. But, generally speaking, I think they should play their cards to win now. Tim Duncan is a one of a kind player. There are max players, and then there are max players that anchor a franchise through multiple championships. We all know which class Duncan falls into.
14 Comments
January 27th, 2009 at 9:54 am
I love Manu but with that being said he reminds me of a “shot” boxer. Maybe he’s not 100% yet but I would think by now he would be. There are nights he can control a game and there are nights where he looks horrible. See Sunday’s Lakers game. I believe the days of a consistent Manu are over.He has taken to much of a pounding over his career. I don’t think the Spurs should extend him this summer. Let his contract play out and see where he is at that point. Trust me, I hope I’m wrong. As for 2010, there are no guarantees that a big name free agent/or the one the Spurs target will sign with them. If you can do something that makes your team better today, do it. I do agree that Timmy’s shelf life is getting closer every day. He is among the elite of the elite and obviously not every team has a player like that so I think you have to take advantage of having him while you can.
January 27th, 2009 at 10:59 am
Even if the Spurs play to win championships now, how the heck do they get better if the only players other teams might want would be Duncan, Parker, Ginobli, Mason, and Hill? I just don’t know how they can trade for a good player without giving somone equally as good in return.
January 27th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
This is where the fantasy cap dump comes into play. But, yeah, I’m with you. It’s a hard row to ho.
January 27th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
I hope you’re wrong. If he declines, the team declines. That’s inescapable.
January 27th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
If what gospurs44 says is true (and in my heart of hearts I think that it is true) then do we think about trading Manu now? I know that sounds ridiculous, but if we can get a couple of younger, healthier parts, would that offset the greatness that Manu can bring? I don’t know much about the salary cap situations or anything like that, but say, hypothetically and as part of my fantasy, if we could get Marcus Camby and some quality swing player for Manu and some other scrubs and picks on our team, would we do it? Probably not, but we would have to think about, right? Gosh, I hope I am wrong.
January 27th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
If the Spurs were to ever trade Manu, this would be a bad time. He’s in a funk and his value is lower than it would be after a stint of good play. But the question is, how do you replace him? He’s Manu Ginobili. Those younger, healthier parts better be really good.
January 27th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Ok fellas. Let’s not forget that Manu had his best season ever as a Spur last year. Yes, I know he didn’t play well in the playoffs, but we all know that was because of his ankle injury. Manu will bounce back. Duncan is the foundation for which the Spurs franchise is built on. But Manu, is the heart and soul of the team. Duncan and Parker by themselves would make the Spurs a playoff team, but Ginobli (when he’s on) springboards the Spurs to the elite level of NBA teams. I think the Spurs need another piece, but if we can’t get it then I’ll take our chances with what we got. Maybe we could grab another solid rotation guy like Mason with our mid-level exception this summer. I don’t know. But I do know that you don’t trade Ginobli. I’m reminded of this phrase from Bad Boys 2 “We ride together, we die together.” Well, I’m riding with the Big 3 until the bitter end.
January 27th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Trading Ginobili would end the Spurs season. He provides too many irreplacable intangibles. Whoever came in return would hopefully be young, but realistically could not produce as much as he can this season. Also, as Varner mentioned his trade value is not high right now.
Should the Spurs extend his contract? If they do, they’ll likely pay less than what he’ll cost in 2010.Manu and Kobe are the same age, he’s going to be a factor in the league for a few years beyond 2010.
When Bowen got an extension, Buck Harvey wrote an article that essentially raised an eyebrow to the move as a rare nicety in a cutthroat business. It’s not just about winning for the frontboffice, fans love and trust Manu more than any other player.
Manu will remain a Spur after summer 2010.
January 28th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Trading Ginobili isn’t even an option. Pop knows better than anyone that Manu is the heart and soul of his club. They were under .500 last year without him and were 6-6 this year. Missing all of training camp has hurt his consistency, but without him the Spurs have NO CHANCE. As someone else wrote, he provides all the intangibles, including inspiring his teammates to play with the same passion he brings. Even Spur fans don’t seem to get it, Manu has the winningest resume of any NBA player this decade. The Spur dynasty, such as it is, started Ginobili’s rookie year, and even back then he was a difference maker. No Manu, no chance.
January 28th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
The No Manu, No Chance mantra is true in all sorts of ways.
January 28th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Two Euro titles, Olympic gold medal, 3 NBA titles in 6 seasons. 16-3 in playoff series, the best winning pct of anyone who has played in the playoffs for more than one year.
MVP of the first 3 titles mentioned. All he’s ever done is win. I agree he hasn’t been consistent this year (yet), but the Spurs are 24-8 since his return, 6-6 before he played. He’s their guy, period.
January 28th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Qed.
January 28th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
And as a Spur fan I hate to admit this, but I bet against the Spurs every game until Manu returned, and won I believe 9 times in those 12 games. Even Vegas has no idea the impact Ginobili has. But I do. So do the other high school coaches that I know.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
I agree wholeheartedly. Problem is, it’s going to hard for the Spurs play their cards now because they don’t have a very good hand (in keeping with your analogy). Who can we get, for what we have, that will propel us over the Lakers, because they are really the only team standing in our way.
I think it is more important to get a big than a wing player, because a good big will open up shoots for shooters on the wing and the Spurs have guys that can make open shots (not to mention two great dribble penetrators). So, where is the (reality based) scenario that will get this accomplished?
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