Wednesday, January 28th, 2009...7:55 am
Can the Spurs Win with Matt Bonner?
Earlier this season, I wrote a piece called The Rise of the Red Rocket. At the time, Bonner’s PER was 18.76. He’s settled since then. Yet, his PER still stands at a laudable 17.29, which places him in the same class of player as Chris Kamam and Joel Przybilla. By any account, Matt Bonner is playing the best basketball of his life. His performance in last night’s toughly contested victory in Utah was crucial for the Spurs.
The game was also representative of an emerging Matt Bonner ambivalence amongst fans. Matt Bonner shot a remarkable 7-10 (6-7) for 20 points. His +14 was second on the team to only Tim Duncan, who chipped in a +16 with a near triple double. But in a game where the the Spurs lost the battle of the boards by a deficit of 11, Bonner only hauled in 5 rebounds in 32 minutes. Matt Bonner is only Matt Bonner. His limitations are as glaring as his strengths.
That brings us to the title of this post: Can the Spurs Win with Matt Bonner at Center? To that question, I offer an emphatic yes and no. Matt Bonner’s collective plus/minus is a gaudy +186. He is third in the league in 3 pt% at .452. He provides Tim Duncan with spacing and causes match up problems for teams like the Lakers. There is no question he makes the Spurs a better team. That’s my ‘yes’.
My ‘no’ is more nuanced. When Spurs fans ask whether or not the team can win with Bonner at center, I suspect they are not really asking a question about Matt Bonner. What they are really asking is, “Can the Spurs win with Matt Bonner as their second most productive big?” Or, a variation on the same concern, “Can the Spurs win without adding a gritty, interior big?” I sympathize with these concerns. Instinctively, these fans are not asking about Matt Bonner so much as about the shape of the frontcourt rotation.
By one measure, San Antonio is ranked 23rd in the league in rebounding, continuing a trend we took time to mark in Novemeber and earlier this month. By another measure, they’re 22nd in the league in blocks. Their interior defense remains stingy, but this has much to do with the guards remaining disciplined within the team schemes by pushing penetration toward the sidelines and baseline. Interior defense starts at half-court in San Antonio.
Ideally, Matt Bonner would be the team’s 3rd big, with Thomas and Oberto registering minutes behind him, and in that order. But this is not Matt Bonner’s fault. He could hardly play better. And this isn’t necessarily on the front office, either. For example, there is no reason to think that, if healthy, Ian Mahinmi couldn’t have been a help in this regard. Granted, he’s not a number 2 big, but he would have helped. It’s just an unfortunate swirl of circumstance that Pop and company need to figure out if the Spurs are to make a late season push. Let’s just hope against the odds that the Spurs can pull a big man rabbit out of their magician’s hat.
27 Comments
January 28th, 2009 at 10:14 am
Guess we’ll know once the season is over. My guess is no. Maybe with the younger Duncan, but less teams are doubling up on Tim and he’s not able to capitalize on it as often as he use to. Especially against bigger players like Howard, Bogut, etc.
January 28th, 2009 at 10:27 am
Here’s a thought - let’s make a play for Noah. Sure he’s immature, bratty and a headcase but he’s big and his ability to rebound is undeniable. Duncan could be a real calming influence on him and help him harness his talent.
Would the Bulls accept Udoka and a 1st round pick for getting rid of the talented headcase?
January 28th, 2009 at 10:36 am
Which first round pick? And why would the Bulls be interested in Udoka? Simply because his contract is expiring? Seems like Noah is more valuable to the Bulls than a future first round pick, likely late in the round, and an expiring contract.
January 28th, 2009 at 10:39 am
This may be a silly idea, but it seems like it would be worth a shot to have Bonner, Thomas/Oberto, and Duncan on the floor simultaneously for short stints. Bonner is obviously not the most nimble guy, but his frame is such that he could stay with a shooting guard enough to justify having three bigs on the floor. However, he may not have as many open looks offensively, since his main defender wouldn’t necessarily be one of the other team’s bigs.
January 28th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Kevin, I like the creativity, but I don’t think there is anyway Bonner could stick with a 2 or 3. He sometimes has trouble with 4s and 5s. And the Spurs want other bigs to guard him, thus pulling them away from the hoop, creating space for Tim Duncan.
January 28th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Bonner may be a “third” type big, but look at the team during the 07 season: was Oberto or Elson any better?
Also, the total rebounding stat may be misleading. In both this season and 07, SA dominated the defensive glass, but did poorly in offensive rebounding.
Not sure what the team needs most, but I do think Bonner can be part of the equation.
January 28th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Good point about the offensive rebounding numbers. The Spurs sacrifice offensive boards in favor of transition defense as a matter of principle.
January 28th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
The two sides of Matt Bonner. Example 1: Spurs Lakers 1/18. Example 2: Spurs/Jazz last night. Bonner is what he is…a streak shooter who can open up the floor when his shot is on. When it’s off he is a huge liability defensively. The Spurs cannot beat the Lakers with Bonner on the floor guarding the likes of Bynum, Gasol or Odom for long stretches. With that being said what team could win with Matt Bonner starting and playing a majority of minutes. The Big 3 cover up a lot of roster deficiencies.
January 28th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Unfortunately, although new to the systemI think Splitter would’ve been a great fit, and I don’t think it’s necessary to needlessly give up a draft pick in a market for bigs where the demand is high and the quality supply is low.
Fortunately, in my opinion, Pop is one of the best when it comes to making these decisions.
January 28th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Thanks for this discussion, to my knowledge not available anywhere else. In my mind bonner’s not the problem. Its the dissapearance of even minimal contributions from Kurt, Fab, udoka and Bowen. Thanks again.
January 28th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
ChillFAN, I see things a little differently. Fab and Udoka are underwhelming this season. I don’t Udoka fits the system. I’ve pretty much written him off. Fab hasn’t looked bad in his recent stints. But he’s clearly a 4th or 5th big at this point. Depending on the match ups, Thomas can be very effective. Basically, it comes down to his lateral foot speed. I’m not sure what to make of Bowen, other than Pop has lost confidence. His defense looked great last night against Okur. Bowen was a big part of last night’s victory. At other points this year-think 76ers blow out loss-he’s looked dreadful. The West has improved enough that the Spurs can’t afford an offensive liability heavy minutes.
January 28th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
I know Horry is old, but I really do think that with all the time he’s had away from basketball, he’ll be fresh. Put Duncan, Horry, and Bonner on the floor and you have two physical big men, and three shooters. Horry playing 20-25 minutes and a healthy Fab can get the Spurs through this season, and keep them in contention for a ring in ‘09.
January 28th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
John,
Can Horry shoot anymore?
January 28th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Timothy,
I don’t think Pop has lost confidence in Bowen despite conceding your latter point about offensive liability. I think Pop has placed Bowen in Horry territory — saving him for the playoffs. With about 15 games left in the regular season or a secured top 4 playoff position, Bowen will start to play more and the scoring differential will improve.
What say you about acquiring Josh Boone for Udoka, Vaughn, and cash?
January 28th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
We need to trade Ian Mahinmi, Fab, and a first round pick for Chris Bosh.
We need a definitive presence that can play both sides of the ball at center. This is becoming a serious problem with LA.
Andrew Bynum, Gasol, and Odom. We need someone to backup Duncan. You can’t have Kurt Thomas and Matt Bonner suddenly combine their talents, and physically it would look very strange.
January 28th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Tim, maybe Fab is a 4th or 5th big indeed, but who really needs (or uses) that many bigs? We need a 3rd big who can play some meaningful minutes, not stuff the roster with useless guys. The Spurs should definitely try to shop either Fab or Thomas. Not sure if anybody would have any interest in Finley.
January 28th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Why don’t we just trade Michael Finley straight up for Brian Scalabrine??
Then we would have two red-headed, pale white guys in our line-up full of hustle…
January 28th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
I’ll grant that a 5th big is more for emergency/injury purposes, but a 4th would be handy against teams like L.A., Portland, and Phoenix in the playoffs.
January 28th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
I can see why Toronto would do that trade…
January 28th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Josh Boone is a good idea, but I don’t think NJ is trying to give him up. But that’s sort of player the Spurs might be able to luck into.
January 28th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Why stop at Bosh? let’s trade for all the East All-stars! Why not just trade so-and-so and whats-his-name who both have blown in the league for years and years for someone younger and more talented?
January 28th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Screw the leagues perception that were too old. Sign Horry, trade Thomas for Mutumbo, I think I saw kareem guarding bynum better than anyone last Sunday so he’s in, voilà, Fab is our 5th big. Champions never die.
January 29th, 2009 at 9:16 am
ChillFan said:
“Why stop at Bosh? let’s trade for all the East All-stars! Why not just trade so-and-so and whats-his-name who both have blown in the league for years and years for someone younger and more talented?”
I would like to believe Tim meant “can’t”. Although Toronto might start looking at trading Bosh before loosing him to free agency 18 months from now, I can’t see them agreeing for less of what John suggested (Mahinmi, Fab and 1st Rounder) AND Manu.
January 29th, 2009 at 9:30 am
Juan,
Yes, it was sarcasm. Heavy sarcasm, actually. Lost in translation. There is zero chance—read that as absolute zero—that Toronto trades for Bosh.
January 29th, 2009 at 10:03 am
Zero chance of them trading for what John said or zero chance of trading him at all? I believe they at least have to consider it if they are offered enough talent and/or draft picks. Specially if they keep losing.
Anyway, back to Bonner. Like a lot of you have said, this is hardly his fault. I would be OK with him being a starter and playing starter minutes if the Spurs big man rotation was more solid. One above average big would make it one of the deepest rotations in the league, but without that the Spurs have a lot of guys that are very good at one end and below average at the other end.
I think they can make a good run with this team, but they would need more than a few breaks to make it all the way. They should actively look for that final piece that makes them a typical Spurs team that is either the favorite or the team even the favorites are the most afraid to play against.
January 31st, 2009 at 7:20 pm
[...] a blog post titled “Can the Spurs Win with Matt Bonner?,” the author summarizes Bonner’s strengths (shooting, hustle, strong +/- and average [...]
January 31st, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Where else are you going to get a guy who produces offensively at the 4/5 spot for $3 million? Someone earlier said it best, Matt Bonner is not your problem, in fact he is helping the Spurs stay on top in the division.
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