Monday, February 9th, 2009...7:36 am
The Mid-Season Moult
The question on my mind this morning is how much can the Spurs expect from their role players? The Spurs are showing signs of shedding their early season skin, twisting and turning their way into the class of elite contenders. There were no asterisks at the conclusion of yesterday’s game. Both teams played well, each one showing the other its championship form. The difference in the game was that San Antonio’s surrounding cast outshined Boston’s. But watching the game, one sensed more than the tension of two recent champions with lofty expectations. There was also the sense of competing paradigms.
When the Lakers traded for Pau Gasol they, perhaps unwittingly, raised the ante on the formula for winning championships. The Dynasty Bulls and Spurs had developed a formula of surrounding three stars with bench players that would run through a wall to help the team. But the Gasol Lakers have upset the apple cart—Los Angeles adopted a formula that features 4 stars and a stalwart bench. For those who would quibble about Lamar Odom’s inclusion into the Lakers star column, please see yesterday’s Lakers-Cavs box score. Boston has followed the Lakers suit, although their arrival at a 4 star formula is somewhat accidental. I don’t think Danny Ainge expected Rajon Rondo to develop into an All-Stat level talent, he just has. When healthy, the Lakers role with a quadumvirate of Bryant, Gasol, Bynum, and Odom. The Celtics flaunt a starting line up that features could be All-Stars Garnett, Pierce, Allen and Rondo. The 3 Star model is under threat.
It’s not atypical for this time of year, but the Spurs are oft-rumored conversation partners in trade talks. The difference this season is that the rumors involve names such as Rasheed Wallace, Brad Miller, and Vince Carter. The Spurs front office, we are led to speculate, is in the market for another All-Star. They see the money on the table, and the question is whether or not they should see the bet or call the bluff. If they are to compete with Los Angeles and Boston, should they go all in for another star? The Spurs always moult into something new after the All-Star break, but this year’s transformation could prove far more dramatic than seasons past.
Setting aside Manu Ginobili’s late steal of a lazy Ray Allen inbound pass, the Spurs came away with an impressive win in Boston on the strength of Roger Mason Jr., Matt Bonner, and George Hill. My temptation is to wax poetic about the front office in making something of unwanted free agents and unknown draft picks or to laud Popovich’s ability to get so much from so little. But I’m stopping short of those praises with the sincere inquiry: will those players be enough of a compliment to the core when the games count? For as well as Mason, Bonner, and Hill are capable of playing, none of them are All-Stars.
The optimistic in me wants to be heard, too. Maybe what we learned from yesterday’s game is that a model of 4 stars plus a solid bench is an unnecessary luxury. We learned the Spurs Big 3 can hang with the Celtics Big 4. We learned that there is no reason to panic, and that the Spurs can round what they have into championship form. I’m not sure. But I think it’s a debate Pop, Buford and the gang are currently having amongst themselves.
18 Comments
February 9th, 2009 at 8:07 am
Like I said in the trade post, I believe that having a 4th star is an unnecessary luxury and, considering the Spurs’ current roster, a very risky one because they would have to trade all of their rotation bench to make it happen. Any such trade would have to include a combination of at least 4 of the following players to make money work: Thomas, Oberto, Bowen, Udoka, Bonner, Hill, Mason, Finley and Vaughn. Not even mentioning that the other team still wouldn’t make the deal except they take 2 or 3 of the best players in that list, depleting the Spurs rotation.
… and worse if it’s going to be a Carter-like star.
February 9th, 2009 at 8:10 am
Juan,
I’m inclined to agree with you, but I’m withholding judgement. I can see the argument both ways. Intelligent Spurs fans are probably split down the middle on this question.
February 9th, 2009 at 8:40 am
Mr. Varner & Mr. Gordian, I’m a solid spurs fan and always look forward to your posts. Anyway, I once asked (posted this question on san antonio express website) whether we should trade the red rocket since we weren’t getting anything out of him (this was during the 07-08 season, making $3 mil, when Horry was still w/ the spurs.) Dropping Horry and having Bonner flourish has worked wonders for the Spurs. I was watching the Spurs-Celtics and Hubie Brown was on the dot. Since we are preserving what cap space we have for the feast of 2010, Pop has really focused on developing the bench play. For Matt to come out with a lot of confidence is great. I thought Bonner only showed his prowess during meager games (losing teams), since he shot a ton against the hornets the 1st time we played them… and lost. But I feel this Rodeo roadtrip should really boost the confidence and chemistry of what we have. I say stay pat for now. Any chance of Splitter next year? How about Gist? Hope Ian M. is ready next year. An athletic big would be great.
February 9th, 2009 at 8:46 am
The chances of Splitter ever playing for the Spurs are remote. He has buy out options in 2010 and 2012, but the rookie scale still applies.
My sense on Gist is that the Spurs want to give him another shot during next season’s training camp. I think he could well make the team. Ian Mahinmi should be ready for next season. I’d expect he’ll be featured prominently during the preseason. Between Gist, Mahinmi, Mensah-Bonsu, and Javtokas, I think there is a fair chance the Spurs will have at least one new big in their rotation next season. But the only one with a high ceiling skill set is Mahinmi, imo.
February 9th, 2009 at 8:47 am
If Lakers heave a healthy Bynum come WCF, we don’t win, it’s that simple. Gasol/Bynum > Garnett/Perkins (in my opinion). The team needs a star big man.
February 9th, 2009 at 8:50 am
I’m sorry, but the Carter thing gets me all riled-up
Of course I’m open to trades, I do think the Spurs are weak in some spots and need to address them. However, just adding a pricey name is not the answer. I would more than welcome a low-profile star like that can contribute with more substance. Ex.: Camby, Rasheed, **insert defensive big or willing-to-defend shooter**, etc.
February 9th, 2009 at 8:59 am
Well, if you read my initial post you know that it turned my stomach a bit too. Here’s the thing, though. Is Vince Carter worth another championship? Because if the Spurs add Vince Carter anything short of winning it all is losing. His contract is a bloated creature from a scary swamp, but round about the time of Duncan’s retirement it will become a huge expiring trade chip. In a way, it could accelerate the rebuild process.
February 9th, 2009 at 9:13 am
Bonner, Mason, and Hill are filling the roles of Horry, Barry, and Vaughn, respectively. With the latter crew, we were pretty confident that the Spurs would’ve beaten the Lakers with a healthy Ginobili. Now with a healthy Ginobili, shouldn’t we be supremely confident?
February 9th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Jason, you still have to consider that the rest of the rotation has regressed considerably from last year. Bowen, Udoka, Oberto and Thomas are not as active or effective as they did last year. Any trade would be to upgrade one or 2 of them. Plus, you can’t rule out any of the Big 3 getting hurt or playing less than 100% com playoff time.
February 9th, 2009 at 10:23 am
Hm. I agree and disagree with Juan. Funny how that happens.
I’m not sure that Oberto has regressed. He’s been hurt, and his minutes have been taken from him by Bonner and Thomas. If they slip again, he’ll be back in the rotation - his game shouldn’t change because of his years, because he never had any athleticism to begin with.
Thomas has definitely not regressed. He seems to be more confident in his shot in the last 10 games than ever, or at least since the first few months as a Spur. His rebounding rate is up, and he’s been handling the tough defensive assignments properly.
Udoka is a shadow of his former self, but he was already a nonfactor during last year’s playoff run, so I don’t believe that affects Jason’s comment. Bowen actually is a step slow, I’ll give you that. All in all, this bench seems to be a considerable upgrade from last year’s, and Mason and Hill’s contributions can’t be denied. We’re a better team because of them.
Why I’m not sold on the Carter trade, unless he comes incredibly cheap: do we win a championship with him in the roster? Is it 100% certain? No, it’s not. He’s an All-Star caliber player, but he’s not the piece that would propel us beyond the Lakers’ reach. (’Sheed could be, but the trade seems impossible.) So why risk it all on his washed up carcass?
I’m a firm believer in the FO taking a gamble with a big trade, but Carter doesn’t seem to be the answer. If we can’t find a difference-maker, trading for serviceable scrubs seems like the only option.
February 9th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Latin_D, don’t take me too seriously since I have barely watch the Spurs play this season and my knowledge comes from previous seasons, those few games, following live boxscores and reading lots of sources. However, I wanted to point out that Jason’s analogy wasn’t exactly accurate and I think that is why you kind of agree with me despite negating my argument
February 9th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Well, I forgot to actually say it, but I agree in that we could upgrade all four with a good trade. Didn’t mean to negate your argument…
February 9th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
If the Spurs trade for Carter and get Josh Boone, Sean Williams (limitless defensive potential), and either another big or CDR, they address ALL their weaknesses. Wing scoring (Vince is also a very good defender, when interested), athleticism, and shot blocking. Those four would cost Mason, Thomas, Oberto, Bowen, Finley, and Vaughn.
I’d try like hell to throw in Bonner, a #1 and the rights to Splitter and maybe Gist to get Brook Lopez instead of Boone. Maybe I’m a shortsighted homer, but that might actually work.
The perfect trade for the Spurs and one that gives the Nets all kind of space for 2010 and players to compete this year. We take their trash and talent (I hope!!!)… That leaves the Nets with $40m of space, an A+ point guard, and 3 promising athletic young big men in Yi, Anderson, and Boone. This would be good enough to trade even Hill, though I’d avoid it if possible.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=2990~136~209~3422~3448~591~3239~1996~83~242~2774~1721~2805~846~874~3430~3233&teams=24~24~24~24~24~24~24~17~17~17~17~17~17~17~17~17~17&te=&cash=
February 9th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Vince Carter on his own is a long shot. Real long shot. They’re not gonna get any favors from the Nets beyond that. Unless you count Williams as a favor-but the Nets brass would dp cartwheels in the parking lot if they could just give him away.
February 9th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
We are 9/10ths’ of the way there in terms of an elite team. We have a lot of guys that have gone all the way before and are proven at a championship level.
Pops is doing a grand job of blooding Mason & Hill (note the big minutes Hill played vs the celts in the 4th quarter), and the vets are well, doing what vets do, .. and doing it well.
Trading away your depth is not really what i worry about since you are getting back a part of the depth chart in the form of a rotation player. We already have a Centre by committee situation with Thomas / Oberto / Bonner. We have the JV languishing, Udoka getting next to no minutes, and Bruce not getting as many as on previous seasons.
We are in fact deeper than i can remember in recent times.
It’s more the chemistry.
Can someone come in and “buy” into a spurs mentality, this late in the season? How does Frenchy respond to less shots? Can we afford to go out and grab a guy who is a star just because he is there? If he does not play D he is going to be a liability regardless. Carter fits like a punch in the crotch. Miller for all his skill as a passer is a part time rebounder with an apathetic attitude to heavy lifting. He is not the guy you pair with Tim.
Perhaps the only guy i see out there that i see as being readily available and would be a good fit would be Johnny Salmons from the kings. Good defender, fills in the athletic 3 slot we need, can hit from the outside, create his own shot and would be able to play the game end to end. Did i mention he had a reasonable contract? I doubt though that the kings would let him go for anything we can throw at them without us taking on a bad contract, of which they have several monsters.
Besides all of which, we are winning, and for the most part winning well, and it’s not really a 4th all star we need. It’s a solid Rebounding big man that plays D and can let Tims minutes slow down a little prior to the playoffs (timmy’s running at a high 35 Mpg at present).
To steal an idea from Tom Ziller, why not Tyson Chandler? New Orleans looks like going well over the luxury tax threshold next year. One of the core is going to have to go, it wont be Paul, or West, and who is going to take Pejas contract on (14.2 Million…I know it surprised me too).
He is not a fourth star, but he would absolutely be perfect with Tim, would demand nothing on the Offense, and stuff the stat sheet chock full of blocks and rebounds. He could let Tims minutes dwindle to whatever he wanted/needed to play. He is young agile and already plays the way the spurs like to play.
If you call go for it over the next two years (and i think it is a crime to not put all engines full ahead to make the most out of a once in a generation talent like Tim), I think this style of player would be the one worth giving it up for, and he could possibly be had a lot cheaper than we think.
So sign that massive Big Bob Horry expiring contract up and start talking to the Nooch…
Like they’d help the spurs out. Still…Cap space could really do some talking this season.
February 10th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Juan, I agree Carter’s expensive, but disagree that he’ll disrupt chemistry. At this point in his career, he’d hustle even more to win a championship.
Latin_D, very funny, but Carter’s not a rotting carcass. Today, his skill goes beyond what we’ve had at SF for decades. As long as we don’t give away the team, ultimately, I’m with you Latin_D: green light on trade.
(Daniel, that’s incredible that you worked a 13 player deal out on ESPN, but too big a sacrifice for me and unrealistic that the Nets would trade so many young players) For a player of Carter’s-caliber, I’m willing to say goodbye to players I love like Bonner and Mason in the name competing with the young Lakers for the next couple of years.
JR, I hate to say it, but a healthy Ginobili would have made the Laker series competitive, not a sure win last year. Now this year, with a full season of Gasol and a healthy Bynum?
Bushka, I agree with Charles Barkley when he says Chandler owes his entire career resurrection to the Chris Paul lob. The Spurs should stay away from players overvalued by their current team.
Mason, I agree with you that we have no evidence that the current Spurs are capable of beating a healthy Laker squad this year or the next. That’s why we need to trade, but getting a “star big” may cost Hill, Mason, and Bonner, also it could clog the lane for Manu and Parker who already work off Tim. Are we willing to do that? But I agree with you all that something needs to be done.
Roland, and athletic big? Great point. All the admiration heaped onto our front office finding role players belies the fact that our latest first round picks, Splitter and Mahinmi have yet to contribute. Glen Baby Davis, Carl Landry, Brandon Bass, Ronny Turiaf and David Lee were snatched up right after the Spurs went international. Think one or two of those guys would help right now?
What I took away from this article was that the talent level consolidation that has occured since the Spurs last won a championship has changed considerably. The front office has been fantastic, but not championship level for the last couple of years. They can change that if they use the latest NBA fad, “trade the expiring contract,” to their advantage.
February 10th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Chill I don’t disagree that Chandlers numbers have been heavily influenced by playing with Paul.
But thats only on one end of the floor.
His D, Rebounding & Shot blocking are all skills he would put on the table regardless of who he is playing with.
If thats all he has to do I think he could be the deferring partner in any twin towers front court situation, and play that part extremely well.
February 11th, 2009 at 7:36 am
Bushka, you are right about Tyson’s shot-blocking being needed, thanks for keeping me honest. but a within division leaders trade at the deadline is doubtful.
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