Wednesday, February 18th, 2009...1:43 am
Manu’s Ankle and the Trade Deadline
By now most Spurs fans have heard the news: Manu’s right ankle is giving him trouble. We should know later today how serious the injury is, but that information is somewhat unimportant to this post. The Spurs are faced with a harsh possibility on Trade Deadline Eve. Not whether or not Manu Ginobili is injured, but whether or not injury will be a persistent pattern for the remainder of his career. If the latter proves true, the Spurs are wise to move for more firepower. Buck Harvey provides this frame:
The Spurs have been nosing around Vince Carter for most of the season, going over the numbers, re-evaluating the details. When they know there’s no way around the numbers and details.
Taking on Carter’s contract would be a risk in this economy. It would risk everything the Spurs have been for a decade, too.
But they’ve kept nosing, and Tuesday offered an explanation. Then the Knicks doubled Tim Duncan, and the other Spurs struggled to score, and the player they needed was back in San Antonio.
This is part of the Vinsanity equation: Do the Spurs need an option if Manu Ginobili can’t hold up?
Let me answer. Yes, the Spurs need an option. Without a healthy Manu, the Spurs championship aspirations hit the skids. That is unless the Spurs can replace Ginobili’s productivity by adding an impact player. But the prospect of another Ginobili injury complicates matters.
The Spurs may no longer see a trade which guts the current rotation as viable. Swapping both Hill and Mason for Vince Carter, for example, may do too much damage to the Spurs knowledge base. In order for this team to be successful, the players must know the system. The rumored Nets-Spurs swap would produce an ignorant and chemistry-less rotation. My guess is that Tim Duncan would use his unofficial veto power on any such deal. So what are the Spurs options?
- Do Nothing. Take Your Chances. Hope for the best.
- Patience. The Spurs have some 2.1 million dollars of MLE money left to spend. It’s possible that a quality vet will seek a buy out in hopes of hitching his dreams to a championship shooting star. And the Spurs could always approach a player like Carlos Delfino, who is available for the right suitor. This is unappealing to fans, but it represents a responsible tact.
- Aim Small(er). Rather than a huge blockbuster on the Vince Carter scale, the Spurs could retool their trade designs and go for a player like Andres Nocioni, Marvin Williams or John Salmons. Obviously, none of those examples replace Ginobili, but each player may be available (along with a handful of other such examples). The Bulls would love to dump Nocioni’s cap, and they might add a sweetener like Sefolosha to the pot to get it done. Marvin Williams is a different case. It’s doubtful the Hawks have the cash to re-sign him after the season. Something like Oberto + Udoka + pick/Splitter rights, might appeal to Atlanta if they intend to renounce Williams’ rights. Salmons could become available in an 11th hour fire sale. This option is more attractive if Manu Ginobili is expected to return before the end of the season, but you get the point. The Spurs could simply work the edges.
- Continue to Think Big, Just Not Vince Carter Big. If the Spurs are willing to take on Vince Carter’s contract, would they consider other millstones who masquerade as scorers. The first name that jumps out at me is Corey Maggette. The Spurs had interest in him last summer, and the Warriors would like to move him-an almost impossible task. Maggette’s deal simply pays too much for too long. It’s an awful contract. And, stoking the turn-your-stomach flames, Maggette is currently nursing a gimpy back. This is an ominous sign for a player who has never played a full season. Corey Maggette is talented, but he’s not Vince Carter talented. So why bring him up?
If the Warriors really want to move Corey Maggette’s contract, they’ll need to provide a cap dump inducement. Thankfully, they have an inducement or two on roster. For example, a deal that returned Maggette and Brandan Wright could give the Spurs pause, if they only had to send a dump Oakland-way. Obviously, this is just Trade Machine fiction. Silly speculation. Nothing here other than my imagination. But… My point is to demonstrate that a trade on the scale of Vince Carter’s enormous contract might be available elsewhere in this bad economy trade market. If Manu Ginobili’s injury is serious, or even if it’s not, some 11th hour exploration and soul-searching might be in order. This trade market begs for outside of the box creativity.
Manu Ginobili’s ankle has put an enormous wrinkle into the next 36 hours. What do you think will happen?
16 Comments
February 18th, 2009 at 3:48 am
Tim,
I’d love to see Nocioni or Delfino wearing silver and black. That said, I believe that three Argentines in the roster is way too much. Unfortunately for Fab, he has not been up to the expectations this year and he should be shipped out along with Udoka/JV to get a quality SF. I believe Nocioni is the type of defensive SF with the guts to stop pretty much anybody, I loved what he did in the Olympics and he was confined to the lame no-balls-bulls for the last few seasons. He could provide impact and instant chemistry with Manu.
February 18th, 2009 at 4:02 am
I don’t know what will happen. All I know is that I went to bed last night with a hole in my chest somewhere, and it’s sucking the life out of me. Things were going well for once this season, and now this.
Carter and Maggette aren’t good options, I think. I want the big trade, but I still wish we could do get ‘Sheed somehow.
February 18th, 2009 at 6:05 am
We’ve gotta get Carter. Historically very few teams win championships in the NBA. Face it, our window is open as long as Tim Duncan is playing like a perennial MVP candidate, which will likely NOT last more than 3 years. This means that we should do everything we can to win championships during this period. I say get Carter and forget about 2010 - for a team that has a legit shot at winning the championship, the focus should be on the NOW.
February 18th, 2009 at 6:46 am
I’d have to agree with Tim on this one.
Having Sheed on the team opens up a few other doors that Vince would be unwilling to entertain. Defense, for example. Also, having a quazi “twin towers” down low proved successful, however, Sheed’s ability for the long ball should make Tim’s eyes light up, knowing full well that will give him some room to post up.
February 18th, 2009 at 8:43 am
Aiming Smaller is the way to go. Marvin Williams and Andres Nocioni, are very solid. Both aren’t as talented as Vince Carter. But I see both of them fitting the system a lot faster than VC. Also Williams and Nocioni are younger than VC. They can play the 3 and 4. Which would help the frontcourt of the Spurs. Plus Roger Mason Jr. has proven he can score when given the green light. George Hill can score too. So aiming smaller will help the Spurs now and in the future.
February 18th, 2009 at 8:50 am
Spurs don’t need Carter but they do need Rasheed who can score and defend at the rim. Parker looked terrible last night as he has the past couple of weeks. Making him “untouchable” is questionable to me. I remember I brought up a trade a few years back suggesting they swap Parker for Deron Williams on the SpursReport forums. I was flamed off the forums and even banned.
February 18th, 2009 at 9:33 am
Look, guys, I love Nocioni, I really do. I have his autograph and a photo from when he was a rookie in Olimpia. He did a lot for the Argentinian national team and has played some solid basketball through the years.
But the Spurs sure don’t need him. First of all, he gambles too much on D, and always seems to leave his man at the worst possible moment. Just ask any Bulls fans. And second, he’s a chucker. We already have people to come in and provide instant offense, why would we need another shooter? (Not to mention that he has a horrible contract.)
I thought the general idea was that we needed either a big to rebound, block shots and if he has range, spread the floor, or a 4th banana so that we could simply overpower the others teams with out wealth of talent.
And while the Raptors miss Delfino much more than I thought they would, he’s the ultimate underachiever. He’s another player that I’ve watched for years now, and you always see so much potential in him that you begin to hope. But he never comes through.
Regarding the possibility of trading Tony… Sorry, Mason, but you’re crazy. Many Spurs fans seem to miss the fact that we don’t just have three All-Stars - we have them cheap. The only PGs that might match Tony right now are CP, who I personally dislike, and maybe Deron. Neither would be traded.
February 18th, 2009 at 9:39 am
I love the banter back and forth. You guys are great.
Noc’s contract diminishes in heft with each season, FWIW.
I thought Delfino was above average last season, after a couple years of middling production.
February 18th, 2009 at 9:43 am
Parker had a bad game. I think he is pretty much untouchable. No way to get back equal value in return. Portland isn’t offering Aldridge and Bayless, last I checked. It would take something at at least that level of value, maybe more. But I’ll say this, I appreciate a willingness to think outside the box. If the right deal came along for Parker or Ginobili, the Spurs should not dismiss it out of hand.
February 18th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Most mornings, I tend to agree. This happens to be one of those mornings.
February 18th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Here is the greatest irony. The Spurs management has done such a great job of giving players solid, reasonable contracts that now we don’t have any really bad expiring contracts to get rid of. So I guess it is a good idea to somewhere along the line give some player a crappy contract so that they can be traded later on!
All of the players we have no, for the most part, make what they are worth. Imagine that.
February 18th, 2009 at 10:05 am
Can we all just pray as hard as we can for Manu’s ankles?
February 18th, 2009 at 10:46 am
I know this has been discussed before, but what if the Spurs were open to trading Manu? I think a trade of Manu, Mason, and Oberto for Carter and Lopez would be a good trade for the Spurs to continue their title runs until Timmy can’t go anymore. This trade would fill the need for SF and C. Not to mention the fact that Lopez, as great a rookie as he is, will learn the game from the best big man out there. As much as I would hate trading Manu, it might be worth it down the line.
February 18th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Dude,
no way the Nets give up Lopez in the deal you just mentioned. You could offer Manu, Mason, and Oberto and they still wouldn’t give you Lopez by himself. Productive big men are real hard to come by in the NBA.
February 18th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Let’s face it, we need a bug guy to help Tim. That’s our main problem right now. I hate to say it, but the Lakers look unstoppable unless we get Tim some help. God help us if Manu goes down like last year. We need to trade for a big guy-yes, Carter’s great but it will take some time to learn the system and we don’t have much time. We’re better off going for something we really need but based on the fact that Spur contracts are so good-it looks like we’d have to give up 4 guys for anything material too happen. And, come on who wants old guys? Mason and Hill are the only real worth here given their youth. I think we’re screwed this year unless we trade up for a big. Somebody please convince me we still have a legit chance this year without a trade because I don’t believe we can get past the western finals. And, Tim only has 2-3 good years-let’s hope Pop and GM can pull something out of their hat so we can really contend this year. Plus, why aren’t there more trade rumors going on about SA? Do you think we won’t even make a trade at all?
February 18th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
Losing Ginobili to another team puts the fear of God in my heart. He is the sole reason I have followed this team since 2003. Don’t kid like that, Varner…
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