Tuesday, March 17th, 2009...6:32 am
Morning After Ambivalence
A slice of processed cheese on a cat head and the word “FAIL.” That’s how Graydon summed up last night’s effort against the Thunder. Absurd, yes. But right on the mark. For me, the loss gives rise to an ugly two-headed ambivalence.
The Spurs are a team whose fortunes tightrope the 3 point line. Their reliance on 3 pointers makes them a strong team, especially because opposing defenses are stretched to the edges to honor all the shooters Popovich puts on the floor. This, of course, creates space for Duncan and driving lanes for Ginobili and Parker. If you look at team by team shooting stats, the Spurs are near the top of the league in terms of percentage of 3 point attempts per game. They currently rank 8th. But if you set aside the first two teams–Orlando and New York–the Spurs are grouped into a cluster of teams, who attempt about the same amount of long balls per game. And none of the teams in that cluster are as successful as San Antonio at shooting the 3. The Spurs lead the league in 3 point FG%. Their .400 paces just ahead of Cleveland, Orlando, and Boston.
The Spurs problem, then, is not hidden away in the number of 3s attempted. Clearly, 3 point shooting is one of the strong bones of their offensive skeleton. The problem is that most of their players primarily score off jump shots. That is, on nights when mid-range jump shots and 3 balls aren’t falling, they suffer beneath the heat of one their notorious scoring droughts. Put differently, the Spurs 08/09 squad is widely recognized as one of Duncan’s deeper, more talented supporting casts. When healthy, this Spurs team is more skilled offensively than perhaps any team of the Popovich era. Yet against the Thunder they only scored 76 points because the jump shots weren’t going down. They finished the game 3-19 on 3 point attempts, more than 20% below their season average.
Averages typically win out, and this game was a blip on the radar. I’m not sounding the alarms. But such a heavy reliance on 3 point shooting can be problematic.
The other ambivalence I nurse on mornings like this is the Spurs record in close games. They’re now 10-4, according to the OKC color crew, in games decided by 3 points or less. Great, right? Veteran savvy. Championship know-how. Great coaching in late game time outs. Skillful execution by selfless All-Stars. This stat might represent all these things. And it likely does. But it gives me pause. We’re late in the season. The Spurs really ought to make a display of teams like the Thunder–the other kind of display. Last night’s game was an opportunity for a short night of work for Parker and Duncan. It was an opportunity to maintain their Division lead and current 2 seed. Is 10-4 a sign of weakness or strength? On mornings like this, I’m not sure.
5 Comments
March 17th, 2009 at 6:46 am
Tim,
I agree with your analysis but one of the things that concerned me about the game last night was that it looked like 08 Spurs.
Defense was simply brilliant, but all the effort on our basket was offset by the inefficient offensive game.
If you look at the Thunder’s goal percentage, it shows the team did a hell of an effort on stopping them. But it was also clear that the team misses Manu! The Spurs were badly outscored on the charity line (I am not even going to mention the fact that TD and TP were terrible there) and basically because there were no penetrations…
I hope we can get our slasher back and in rhythm before the second round or our fate will look like 2006…not even 2008
Great writing again…I am a 48MoH fan right now. By the way, I believe the name of this blog fully represents the way I feel every time I get the chance to catch a game on TV…I suffer until the last freaking second…
March 17th, 2009 at 8:32 am
It’s games like last night where the Spurs really miss Manu. When the shots aren’t falling they need someone getting to the basket and drawing fouls. Other than Tony and Manu this team has nobody who can beat you off the dribble and get to the rim and finish. When Mason attempts to create, a disaster ensues. Ime was horrible last night. When Tony gets tired he settles for jumpers and most of the time the misses are short which happened in the fourth. At one point in the 2nd Q the Spurs missed 3 straight shots within 1 foot. It’s mornings like this that make me feel like there is no way we can compete with the Lakers. We’ve got 17 games to get Manu healthy and Gooden comfortable. Go Spurs!!
March 17th, 2009 at 9:27 am
i knows its done and over with.. but this was the reason i wanted vince…as mentioned above, besides tony and manu nobody else can get to the rim off the dribble…
no excuses for last nights loss…
and down the stretch.. makes me wonder if timmay is playing injured. besides the ft attempts, not one real low post possession in the closing mins. it was all screens for parker trying to make forced layup attempts. timmay didn’t even setup down low. is it because he’s injured and is having a tough time playing through it? or did the ft’s missed affect his aggressiveness? is popp to blame for not calling his number?
losing to okc with a 15pt lead after 1? (shakes head in disgust)
March 17th, 2009 at 11:36 am
The issue with 3-pt shooting is that the percentages are always relatively low, and it’s hard to say whether it’s good defense or bad shooting. Therefore the Spurs (and Pop) often end up keeping with a high number of 3-pt attempts even when they are not going in… and then it’s disaster. Basically it doesn’t seem to be a strategy that sees any adjustments during the game, it’s always all-in.
Re: 10-4 it’s a nice stat, what I don’t like is that it obviously had 14 close games this year. That sounds like a lot – I wonder how that compares with previous years. But since playoff games are often closer than regular season ones, I think it’s encouraging.
Something totally unrelated: could we please get a story about Mahimmi making the road trip with the team, and the status of Gist? That would be nice
March 17th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
I was able to make it to last night’s game and it left me very depressed.
Don’t let the box score fool you, Krstic won the game for the Thunder. He grabbed three key rebounds down the stretch, and his disciplined play held the lead for the Thunder.
Also, Gooden’s play is like a zero sum game. For every flash of brilliance he had on the court he had a depressing mental lapse. I think he’s far from the starting rotation, and his minutes will be limited until he understands the Spurs game to the level Pop needs him to. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like Bonner any more than the rest of you, but replacing him with Gooden is maybe more of a liability this late in the season.
It seems like everyone in the conference has gotten stronger, and the Thunder are no exception. That being said, seeding this season is more important than we all are willing to realize. Screw the ‘it doesn’t matter to us’ crap… because this season we need that #2 seed.
I think maybe a decision Pops should have played with was placing Bowen on Stefolosha instead of on Durant in crunch time. Stefolosha was just pounding the aging Finley.
At the end of the day, this was not a game we should have lost. We came out strong, but could not hold our lead, very uncharacteristic Spurs basketball.
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