Tuesday, April 7th, 2009...11:21 pm
The Challenge of Discernment
Ed. Note: In Lieu of my standard recap, I wrote this. For notes on the Thunder game (as well as some thoughts regarding our most recent call-up), make sure to check back for Tim’s posts throughout the morning.
I mentioned yesterday that I am firmly against the idea of shutting down Duncan for the remainder of the season. Rather than merely say that in passing, I felt my reasoning deserved further explication. My argument is a little involved so bear with me.
Several commenters have questioned whether a first (or even second) round victory is worth putting further stress on Duncan’s aching lower body. This isn’t entirely unreasonable. If we aren’t winning a title this season, shut him down, reload during the offseason and make a push for a fifth banner in 2010. Superficially, this is what many would characterize as the realist’s perspective.
Rather than mince words, I’ll be frank: I don’t find that to be realistic. I find it to be absurd. I don’t mean to use the term absurd in a rude or aggressive way. I genuinely feel that perspective is based off of a characterization of basketball which fundamentally misunderstands the nature of on-court achievement, therefore rendering it meaningless.
Before moving on with the ideology undergirding my thought process, let me provide a projection which may help clarify things: Let’s say the Spurs fail to make a substantive offseason acquisition or even do pick up a marquee free agent but still fall back into the Western Conference playoff peloton. By midseason it’s clear that, no matter what rotation we roll out, the Spurs aren’t a contender. What then? Do we rest Duncan for the remaining 40 games, intent on reentering the hunt in 2011? I am not saying that will be the case (in fact, I think the Spurs have a very strong chance of being near the top of the Western Conference again in 2010). But if that were the case, what is the realist’s response?
What if Ginobili has surgery and is out for all of next season (which is definitely inside the bounds of possibility)?
You know what all those scenarios are? Scary. You know why? Not because they mean the Spurs won’t win a fifth ring in the next couple of years. But because, for the first time in several years, day-to-day events seem out of control. Sitting Duncan for 25 games, the amount he would likely play from here on out if we were quickly dispatched by the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals (that’s about what I consider our ceiling at this point), will not be decisive in dictating the future of this franchise. What it does is provide a false sense of control. Instead of battling through a difficult moment, we would be distracting ourselves from our own fear of demise by doing something extreme.
This brings me back to my understanding of on-court achievement. If we are not winning championships, there are still reasons to tie up those laces. The goal of a basketball team (even a pro-team) is not necessarily to win a championship. The goal is to play to your full potential. For some teams, their potential is a championship. Subsequently, everything less is a failure. For some, a deep playoff run exceeds expectations and can be a point of pride. For others, merely making the playoffs is a reason to rejoice.
If the Spurs are never again a contender during the Duncan era (and I am not saying they won’t be but it is a concrete possibility), there is still a reason for Tim to head out onto the court: Because he can.
There is nothing wrong with aspiring to be a champion. There is nothing wrong with making decisions that are based off of long-term concerns rather than the season at hand. But there is an event horizon that, when crossed, moves us from the realm of aspiration to a place where we are unable to enjoy the game in and of itself.
There are many other reasons for Duncan to continue playing. Even more compelling than the argument I have just laid out may be the interest of Duncan’s teammates: They have given ceaseless effort all season. Because a single comrade’s postseason hopes have died does not mean theirs must as well.
I don’t think it’s illogical to argue Duncan should be shut down for the rest of the season (when I used the word “absurd’ I was reaching for an alternate meaning). I am also not arguing that Duncan should play every remaining regular season game. I stand behind previous remarks I’ve made regarding the responsible management of Duncan’s minutes.
What I am saying is that we must approach the rest of this season (and those to come) with clear minds and clear hearts. We must have the serenity to accept the things we cannot change; the courage to change the things we can; and the wisdom to know the difference.
13 Comments
April 7th, 2009 at 11:40 pm
totally agree, you have no idea how the post season is gonna pan out, what if kobe gets injured? could the spurs make the final then?
April 8th, 2009 at 12:05 am
Agreed. You play to win. In the course of any single game much less best of seven series, any number of things can happen. The only guarantee is that nothing happens to you if you’re not there.
I’m not convinced that L.A. in 2004 or Dallas in 2006 were better than the Spurs but they still advanced. I do know that they played in their series and played well enough to take advantage of breaks and a little luck. Maybe we get the breaks and luck this year. I’d be no less proud if we do our best an inevitably loose to a better team playing to its own potential. Only one way to find out.
April 8th, 2009 at 5:14 am
If Duncan doesn’t show us he is healthy on these last 5 games I’d pull him out for the season.
I now have ZERO expectations for this team for the remainder of the season and someway that makes me feel better vs. having the known pressure “we have to be champs”
I think a deep playoff run would be a happy story and you never know what could happens.
Again overall… it’s like a relief that we don’t have to win now… at least for this season…
April 8th, 2009 at 5:19 am
Actually I follow you… and then I don’t – the only point on which we’d disagree is that for me only a championship is satisfying. I don’t care if the Spurs go out in the 1st, 2nd or WCF – I really don’t. But short of a championship what I like is that the team and players I support go out with their heads high, having fought as much as they can – then there are no regrets.
And I think that’s why Duncan should play – the future is a big unknown. Maybe next year is worse than this year and then Duncan has a career-ending injury (forgive me for having those thoughts
and he’ll always look back and think “I didn’t compete when I could have”. And that’s when you get regrets.
So I agree with you on that and with SpurredOn – it’s like the lottery: the only guarantee is that you won’t win if you don’t play. Who knows what will happen in the playoffs. Let’s kick some ass.
April 8th, 2009 at 6:03 am
[...] about The Challenge of Discernment [...]
April 8th, 2009 at 6:14 am
Great post, Graydon, and great comments by Will and SpurredOn. Like you mention in the post, I thought the idea of shutting Duncan down for the post season was absurd… and I do mean that in an offensive way.
I think most of us can say that we didn’t think we could beat the Mavs in ‘07, and it turned out that we didn’t have to. I’m not saying that I think the Lakers will lose in the 1st round. I just think that there is no predestination in the playoffs, and last night was a good start.
April 8th, 2009 at 6:44 am
If we want to make a run to the championship in 2010, then players like Roger Mason Jr. and George Hill need meaningfull playoff minutes. This is reason enough for every single member of the Spurs to play hard through the rest of this season and playoffs. Duncan will have plenty of time to rest. I’m excited to see what this team can accomplish without Manu!
April 8th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Here’s the thing: Fate is a fickle mistress. Two years ago, I fully expected the Spurs to face a tough Mavericks team in the WCF trying to avenge the loss to Miami the year before. I knew the Spurs could beat the Mavs, but I also knew it was a tough matchup. Dallas lost to an 8 seed, the Lakers fell in round 2, and the eventual champs avoided any really difficult teams along the way (including a Cleveland team in the finals that rode one hot guy for two series). So, you play because you never know what will happen. If LA sustains a catastrophic injury, you don’t hand the WC to Utah or Denver. You take it for yourself. Play because you can and because you never know what hand fate will deal you.
April 8th, 2009 at 9:42 am
Amen spurchief. Amen.
I too knew the ‘07 Spurs could (and would) beat the Mavs in a tough rematch. Proof that the playoffs separate champs from chumps, as those Mavs where. They caught every break against us in ‘06 but were still mentally soft. The Warriors proved it. I happen to think that the current Lakers, outside of Kobe and Fisher, are also mentally soft. They’re front runners and could easily be on the wrong side of fate if they find themseles in a series with a team whose mentality and play is tougher and more physical. I look forward to finding out and hope that the breaks soon even out (from the .4 shot in ‘06 to our missing wide open shots, FTs in key moments and even some layups these past three weeks).
April 8th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Will, in reading your previous posts, it sounds like you have been following the Spurs for a long time. “Championships” are the goal for the Spurs, but the season is not necessarily a dissapointment if they fall short of that.
April 8th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Todays loss vs the Blazers highlights why we need to shut Duncan down, in contradiction to all of the claims above. Look at it this way, in our last 10 games how many playoff bound teams have beaten? 0? we cant beat the blazers leading by 20 @ home and u think we have a chance in a playoff series? seriously disappointing and heartbreaking for all Spurs fans but at least save our best players for next season and that includes Parker!
April 8th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
ChillFan, what I meant is that I’m always looking forward to the ultimate prize. Truth be told, if another ring can’t be achieved, I’d rather have the Spurs out early than another heartbreaking exit to the Lakers. In a way the Lakers start to be to the Spurs what the Spurs were to the Suns…
And I never said an early exit would be disappointed, the only thing disappointing for me would be to see the players or the coach quitting on games. But short of that I’m personally fine with whatever the outcome is. And I’m realistic – we tend to focus a lot on the bad breaks we got along the years, but forget about the good ones and you can’t win a championship, let alone 4, without a bit of luck. Apparently our luck has run out this year but it’s still early to call it quits.
Of course tonight’s loss put things in perspective as well. Not sure what happened with the huge lead turning into such a loss, but TP was gassed out and TD looked done – the Spurs are running on empty. It sure doesn’t sound good. I would like to try to convince myself that Pop downplayed it because Portland is the team the Spurs will most likely play in the 1st round, but the fact that TD was on the floor on the 2nd game of a b2b is proof enough that Pop meant serious business. That’s what’s disheartening.
April 8th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
[...] (4 points, 5 rebounds) as further evidence that Tim should be shut down. I stand firmly behind my previous statements on the matter. Yes, he was relatively ineffective during his 24 minutes of court time but on [...]
Leave a Reply