Friday, May 8th, 2009...5:55 am
Offseason Breakdown: Aiming Small
In Wednesday’s post, I suggested the Spurs needed to put their backcourt house in order. This might come about naturally as players develop and learn the system. The return of Manu Ginobili will help, as if I needed to tell you. But if I let the impression with any of our readers that the Spurs had some sort of crisis situation at guard, then forgive me. That’s not the case at all. It’s the position where the Spurs are strongest in terms of talent. What I do question, however, is whether the pieces all fit together. Or, more precisely, if the Spurs would not be better served exchanging a backcourt role player for another team’s wing.
Back around the trade deadline, Vince Carter to the Spurs rumors were flying fast and furious. The Star Ledger’s Dave D’Allessandro said the parameters of the deal was a pile up of expiring contracts and either George Hill or Roger Mason Jr. Somehow the deal never happened, but one would expect that other teams will engage the Spurs in similar discussions in the coming weeks. So, using Vince Carter as our example, the Spurs would have to pile up Bruce Bowen, Matt Bonner, Fabricio Oberto and Roger Mason Jr. for the math to work. Try your hand at the Trade Machine. If you substitute Richard Jefferson, the trade looks more or less the same. Technically, the Spurs could make these deals work by adding Kurt Thomas and subtracting Mason Jr., but one wonders if other teams would be willing to part with an impact player, even in a salary dump scenario, without getting some young talent back in return. Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas and Matt Bonner are all valuable players, but you can’t sell them to fans as easily as George Hill or Roger Mason Jr.
This is familiar history to many of you, so why rehearse it now? The point of this post is not to advocate for one trade scenario over another. My goals are more modest. Obviously, I’m not sure what the Spurs will do. Instead, I’m trying to give our readers a sense of what they could do, especially if they’re willing to part with Mace or Hill. Previously, I’ve indicated that given the choice of parting with either Mason or Hill, I’d prefer the Spurs retain Hill. But beyond this, Mason Jr.’s contract helps make the trade math work; Hill doesn’t make enough to put a dent in most trade scenarios.
The Carter and Jefferson scenarios represent something approaching a straight up salary dump. Over the past several months, the Spurs have only been rumored in mammoth deals. But I’m not convinced the Spurs couldn’t score big, even if they aimed smaller. Let me suggest a couple names that could be available one or two shelves below Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, but who would still improve the Spurs wing situation. In other words, the Spurs have some flexibility to make a move on a smaller scale.
Josh Childress
The Atlanta Hawks own Childress’ rights, but after he left them for Greece the two parties amended their Christmas Card lists. If he returns to the NBA, it won’t be to Atlanta. It seems to me that an expiring contract and Roger Mason Jr. for Josh Childress is a fair deal-the Hawks would be getting both players for free. Prior to bolting, Childress turned down a 5 year, 33 million dollar offer from the Hawks. If the Spurs offered something closer to 7 or 8 million, he might consider it. That might be overpaying for him, but it’s overpayment for a 26 year old. From a basketball standpoint, the Spurs would be getting a starting SF/SG and the Hawks would be getting two quality veterans, at positions of need, for nothing.
James Jones and Dorrel Wright
The Heat are thinking of moving Michael Beasley to small forward. If that happens they’ll have a long jam of players and contracts at the position. Moreover, they need more depth at point guard and center. Again, an expiring contract and Mason Jr. would work. All four players are playing on quasi-expiring contracts (only Jones’ first two years are guaranteed). I admit that this is scenario that might not improve the Spurs at all. It’s a risk, but it’s a low risk. If it doesn’t work, the 2010 strategy remains in tact and the Spurs carry their reload agenda forward.
But this does give San Antonio an opportunity to address their small forward situation. I suspect many of our readers will look at this scenario and shake their heads. But the incoming scoring would make up for Mason’s 11 ppg, Jones would provide 3 point shooting, Wright is an exceptional rebounder, and both players are long, capable defenders.
Aim small, miss small.
If the Spurs went this direction, they’d have a hole at shooting guard. But with George Hill, Dorell Wright, the draft, and options like Malik Hairston and Austin Nichols, they should be able to fill that hole. No worries.
Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster
The Trailblazers have too many small forwards. Way too many. Kevin Pritchard drives a tough bargain, and is not likely to trade with the Spurs. The longstanding rumor is that Pritchard wants to package a bunch of his better role players for a star point guard. So, it doesn’t look like there is a deal here. Nevertheless, the Spurs could wait out the summer to see of one of the players becomes available.
******
Returning to my point. The Spurs are not strictly limited to taking on a salary dump. Perhaps, they’d be willing to part with a good player at one position in order to satisfy a greater need at another. Moreover, the Spurs do not necessarily have to choose between trading for a big contract now or waiting until 2010 to reload. They could make a smaller move that left all or part of the 2010 free agent money in tact. I’m sure that you, our readers, have ideas of your own. If the Spurs have taught us anything, it’s that they’ll make an unexpected move. With a healthy Manu Ginobili, the Spurs are not far from championship form. I tend to think that if impact players like Vince Carter become available, the Spurs really ought to pull the trigger. But they could get back into the championship conversation by adding one or two quality role players. As fans we gravitate toward home runs, but singles and doubles can win games too.
19 Comments
May 8th, 2009 at 6:50 am
After playing with the Trade Machine, I see one player out there that I think would be a good fit and help out at the 4-5 position: David Lee from the Knicks. First, his contract is up this summer so the Spurs wouldn’t have to give up any talent to get him. Second, he’s good for 12pts and 10rebs a game. Third, he’s athletic, not afraid to run, and young. Plus the fans love him - I think Pop would as well. I know he’s not as big as Oberto or Thomas, but with him and Gooden on the floor, that’s a solid reserve squad for when TD gets a breather.
May 8th, 2009 at 7:00 am
i’d be shocked if the knicks let lee go for anything we can offer.
May 8th, 2009 at 7:31 am
Honestly, I think David Lee is a starting quality PF, however, there remains the question of his defense, which in essence is virtually non-existent. As mentioned, I doubt the Knicks let him go at anything as cheap as the Spurs could dole out. If I were to go with the realm of hustle, undersized PF genre, I’d personally go with Paul Millsap, same problem with Utah lies here as with David Lee.
Tim, first, your posts as always are enlightening and analysis exceptional. Josh Childress is someone I’ve been tabbing for a while, I would love to get Marvin Williams, but honestly, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Personally, I think if we can get younger, and find a viable upgrade from Finley/Bowen/Udoka, then Mason is well worth the cost. While he’s been stellar in some respects, he’s relatively inefficient as well, I’d be willing to go for a younger inefficient player like Josh Childress. If I were to choose between Outlaw and Webster, I’d definitely have to go with Webster, as Outlaw demands touches and shots, which Pop may or may not be inclined to give him, however, it’s possible that a more rigid and controlled system that Pop runs might be able to get the most potential out of him.
Two other names that aren’t really “younger” but are also viable options for relatively cheap I think, would be Walter Herrmann and Marquis Daniels. The issue with Herrmann would possibly be his consistency, but he’s really never seen consistent floor time since retiring from the Argentina national team, and when he did get minutes in Charlotte he was solid. I think he’s worth giving a shot, and I think he’d be a great fit as a Spur. He shoots the ball well, he’s an above-average defender and he doesn’t demand a lot of touches. He’s also only signed in Detroit for $2 M and I believe is an RFA this off season. Marquis Daniels really stuck out at me during his play this season with Mike Dunleavy injured. He’s shown he can handle starter’s minutes and from the scouting reports looks to be a solid defender. He doesn’t have a reliable 3, but he can create his own shot. He’s supposed to have $7 million team option, I’m not sure if Indiana would take it though.
I think I understand your approach at trying to fill the offensive need and get by with passable defense. Another consideration with your Miami situation might be Jamario Moon? He’s not stellar, but it’s worth looking into, he’s just a slightly older Trevor Ariza to me.
Again, I’m not sure on how this would end up working out, but Milwaukee does have something of a front court need, and given how their first round picks kind of haven’t panned out and they end up trading them (see Yi), I was thinking maybe it was worth taking a swing at someone like Joe Alexander. He has a decent jumper and athleticism to be a solid defender, I think he’s definitely someone worth looking into. Of course, if you could land Luc Richard Mbah-a-Moute somehow, that’d be sweet.
I’m also very high on Wilson Chandler, if New York is really sold on LeBron for 2010, I don’t know if Chandler has a place there. Of course, this might be an issue further down the line, but I wouldn’t be opposed to trying to nab him now.
May 8th, 2009 at 8:08 am
I like the Childress scenario. Childress would adjust smoothly. Udoka is a capable back up, or Hairston. Ginobili is smart and gritty enough to play the 3 for a couple of minutes. I think Childress should be the aim.
May 8th, 2009 at 8:12 am
I understand we need a SF. However, would we not benifit more from a solid shot blocking center? I don’t know how the numbers would work out, but Bowen can play defense still and if we bring in Williams from Austin that could stem the tide for now, but what about grabbing a nice big in a trade?
Tyson Chandler, if he’s healthy, would look good playing with Duncan. Camby would also be nice. I’m not sure, I’m just wondering what you all think.
May 8th, 2009 at 9:35 am
I’m enjoying the anlysis and everyone’s ideas.
Big50 - Like you, I’m a bit more worried about the Center position and having defensive size and rebounding, both next to TD and with the understanding that throughout the regular season TD will see a few less mpg than past seasons. We have to have a rebounding big who can alter shots and not require a night off. If we get that, I’m happy to keep Bowen (which I prefer) and go with guys like Hairston and Williams. I want to move closer to what we’ve always been, not closer to Phoenix, Dallas, etc. Our pedigree wins titles. Just look at how a similar setup is working for Houston.
May 8th, 2009 at 10:50 am
I like the names you mentioned. Here are some other players that might be available to fill a need that I don’t recall being mentioned in previous threads of the top of my head:
Young SFs:
- Hakim Warrick — not much in the way of D, but he could certainly help the Spurs on offense if they choose to start developing more fast break-oriented offensive sets for the minutes and games that they rest Timmy. Since he didn’t get much pt this year, he’d likely come fairly cheap.
- Julian Wright — are the Hornets desperate enough to dump salary that they’d give up Wright & Antonio Daniels (whose deal expires in 2010) for the Spurs’ partially guaranteed deals and a 2nd round pick? Coach Scott doesn’t play him anyway, so I’m not sure what value he has for them. Obviously, Wright is more of a project for the Spurs than an answer to an immediate need, but if they could get him without paying much, perhaps his upside makes it worth the gamble.
Veteran SFs:
- Desmond Mason — not a sexy name, but he defends well, provides a second body that can drive to the lane, wouldn’t cost much, and by all accounts, he would fit in very well in the Spurs’ locker room
- Grant Hill — if the strategy is just to keep the window open with the big 3 for a couple more years, what’s not to like here? He can also handle some minutes as a point forward, which means the Spurs wouldn’t have to use 2 roster spots to fill the back-up PG and SF needs — they could use that extra spot to develop a younger player like Williams or Hairston
- Shawn Marion — on paper, he’s a great fit. The tricky part would be the $$ and the years on his contract. If he and Toronto would agree to a sign-and-trade for, say, $7 - 8 mill./yr for 2 or 3 years, where the Spurs send back Mason, a partially guaranteed deal, and maybe Mahinmi or draft picks, I think everyone wins. The Spurs would be a great fit for Marion at this stage of his career, too — on many nights when one or two of the big 3 are resting, he could be a primary scorer like he wants to be. However, the Spurs wouldn’t have to rely on him to do that on many nights, so whether or not he’s slowed down a bit would be less crucial for us than, say, in Toronto, where they would be counting on him to put up 20 each night.
- Bobby Simmons — hear me out on this one. Given NJ’s financial issues, the Spurs might be able to get him for just partially guaranteed deals and a future draft pick or two, which means he costs them virtually no talent (I wouldn’t do this deal if it cost much more than that). Yes, he’s overpaid, but his deal expires in 2010. He’s a solid defender and just hit nearly 45% of his 3s, and he doesn’t need to be a focal point on offense.
Young front-court players:
- Robert Swift — if he can stay healthy, he may be worth looking at as a shot-blocking/defensive specialist. I don’t know what he would bring to the table at first, but it might be interesting to see what a full season of practicing with Timmy and working with Pop brings out in him.
- Darko Milicic — If we need shot-blocking, that’s what Darko does best, and his deal expires in 2010. Memphis is also rumored to be cutting costs, so maybe partially guaranteed deals + Mahinmi or draft picks seals the deal.
- Ike Diogu — not sure why no one plays this guy. He’s very productive when he’s on the court, even if he doesn’t fill the defensive need we have at the moment. At this point, though, the long-term health of the franchise may be better served if we don’t overlook young talent simply because we are blinded by a current need.
May 8th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Spurred on, Big 50 The Spurs should play Duncan at center. And have a 4 who can move. Duncan has the size for center and the defense. it allows Duncan slowness to be a threat. Duncan at the 4 makes him vulnerable against 4’s who can move.
The small is to me, more or a worry. Then the center position.
May 8th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Big50 and SpurredOn,
I don’t disagree. You’re entirely correct about their need to add to the frontline. I’ve sort of assumed the Spurs would use their MLE for a big, and probably on a one year contract. That is, of course, if what we’ve previously written about Splitter is accurate. No sense in giving a large contract to a big if the Spurs will need that money next season to add Splitter. This approach would also provide Ian Mahinmi with minutes, sink or swin. So, in essence, I see their frontline as Duncan/Bonner or Thomas/Mahinmi/MLE big. If they carry a fifth big it will be a Toro, Gist, Javtokas, Dwayne Jones, or something of that variety.
Of course, this also means they’ll have to upgrade at wing through a trade or the draft. But even if they land someone like Casspi in the draft, they’ll still benefit from trading for a vet.
Regarding a return to defense: all the wings I highlighted are good defenders. We’re on the same page about a need to return to defensive form. In my estimation, the Spurs will never replace Bowen with a single person-unless they go after Ron Artest. I think it will take George Hill plus others, if you follow.
May 8th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Jose - I don’t like TD at Center because I’d prefer he not be the primary defender the 4x per season we face both Yao and Shaq. I also want a shot blocker who compliments TD and protects the rim when Duncan is resting. That he could set screens that helps give TD better positioning would also be welcomed.
Any changes only have to reflect the kind of team Pop wants. Much of my angst comes from seeing a deterioration of the defense last season turn into a full blown non-Spurs style team this year that bottomed out in the playoffs. I have no interest in our team trying to man-for-man outscore the Nuggets or Lakers. I want to defend them so well that any growing pains on offense won’t cost us victories. I’d like to play defense like Houston with the knowledge that our big-3 bring more offense to the table than any three Houston players. The gap between us and the current final 4, when our team is healthy, is miniscule. The right off-season tweaks can keep us legitimately in the top 3 of our conference for the next few seasons while leaving us more versatile and better prepared for different playoff opponents.
May 8th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
So many possibilities. Is it July yet?
In regards to Portland’s sitch, Kevin Pritchard is going to throw his entire roster—sans Roy, Aldridge and Oden—at NOLA and see if he can pry Chris Paul out of their hands. A year ago, a trade like that would have been laughed at. Now, from what I’ve read, the Hornets are hurting financially. With Chris Paul’s contract extension about to kick in, at 3x his rookie scale (!!!), the Hornets’ *may* be willing to part with their All-Star point-guard for some financial wiggle-room.
I like Josh Childress too. And I’m sure Pop loves Josh Childress’ defense. It would not surprise me to hear/read that R.C., Lindsay and Pop may have put feelers out to Childress’ reps, while they were away at the Euro Final Four. If landing Childress meant giving up on Mason Jr., then the Spurs should pull the trigger.
The Knicks’ David Lee would be a GOD-SEND. Consistent defensive rebounding alongside Tim Duncan? Ooo, yes please!
But the Knicks will probably require any team that trades with them to take on the final two-years of Eddy Curry’s bloated contract (pun intended). Plus, they have a glut of guards/threes, so I don’t see them jumping at the chance to bring in Mason or Hill. Although, the expiring/partially-guaranteed contracts the Spurs have would probably be attractive to the Knicks, in order to keep their “Lebron 2010″ plan/pipe-dream on track.
By the way, who among all these small forward prospects are decent ball-handlers? Someone who can occasionally break down the defense, if the need calls for it. This past season clearly screamed for another ball-handler to be added to the Spurs roster. Scary, horrific things happened, when Parker sat and Manu wore his sports-jackets.
May 8th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
I get the feeling that Dunleavy hasn’t quite given up on Camby yet, especially as he plays decently next to Zach Randolph. So I propose to you this. What about Chris Kaman?
May 8th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
I agree with signing Walter Hermann, a good fundamental sound team player. He was always on the floor for a last second shot with the Pistons. We should consider Anthony Parker from Toronto as well.
We still need to get a rebounding big (as in 6′11″ or taller) to help Duncan. I still say get Rasho back(for cheap, not $7 mil per) or give Chris Mihm a shot.
May 8th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Jeff Foster? He rebounds.
May 8th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
As I share the same strong feelings as most of you about the importance of bringing in some young talent, I feel we do a good enough job of this overseas/draft. If this analogy can actually be made, I feel like Pop builds his teams in a similar manner as Bill Belicheck from the Patriots. Keeps his solid core in tact (Brady, Wilfork, Moss) as we do with Timmy, Manu, Parker; and does an excellent job of finding the right veteran players who can come in the hit some big shots (Elie, Horry) and play defense (Bowen, K. Thomas).
I believe breaking this mold not only lessens our chances of succeeding, be redefines the whole mold of our organization. Why try to redefine something so perfect? Are there any veterans this off-season who can fill the important roles, maybe add some young talent, keep the core in tact, and make another solid run?
May 9th, 2009 at 3:47 am
The Belichick-Popovich analogy does work, but there is a fly in the ointment. The must Spurs role players must get younger so that they can hang with the role player’s of opposing teams. In some ways, the Gasol trade created such a power shift that the Spurs will have to adjust their model, if only at the edges, it it’s going to work going forward.
The 3 stars and role players model made popular by the Spurs and Celtics has been trumped. Boston and Los Angeles now carry a Big 4. Orlando and Cleveland traffic in freak of nature talent. The game has changed. The Spurs must change with it. It seems to me that if they simply abandoned the old as dirt role players for younger guys and added an impact player, then they’d be fine. That sounds like a lot, but it’s doable. And everything remains the same at core.
May 9th, 2009 at 8:48 am
Since Presti left, I can’t recall the Spurs making any real trade, unless you can’t the Kurt Thomas trade, which, ironically, Presti was still a part of.
For the most part, the FO seems too timid to make a move, and/or no one wants to work with us. Basically we wait until a few days before the trade deadline and hope for teams to get desperate and give us a bargain. There’s nothing wrong with that approach because we get to assess the first half of the season and the team’s strengths/weaknesses, but that shouldn’t be our sole approach to trades.
We have too many holes to fill and we need to be more proactive. The FO needs to show an ability to adjust to reality. Until proven otherwise, I’ve lost hope for the FO to do that.
If the FO emerges from this off-season with the old attitude of “if Manu was healthy…” then they’ve showed they are no longer up to the difficult task of trying to stay competitive.
To give credit where credit is due, the Spurs have an amazing System, but its foundation is an MVP level Tim Duncan. With Duncan no longer an MVP level player (though obviously still an elite player) does the System need to be reevaluated? Or has it already changed, and surrounding Duncan with bargain but effete long-distance shooters the new approach?
There’s a lot of questions to be answered in the off-season. My first question is: are they even asking them?
May 9th, 2009 at 10:43 am
Rumor mill:
NOLA won’t trade their core just to avoid the tax, although they’re open to everything.
Blazers want to trade Sergio Rodriguez?
Miami might not make a qualifying offer to Jamario Moon, who is a restricted free agent.
Hooray ESPN Insider. I’ll keep ‘em coming if y’all think it’s beneficial to this conversation.
May 14th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Thanks for all the great comments.
Nicky Dubs, thanks for the info.
Area Man, I don’t see why NO wouldn’t pay their their best and most popular player, CP3s not being traded. Neither is TP, by the way.
While I agree with others here that a Big to Help Duncan is priority #1, I’d agree that a wing player is badly needed. Pop lost confidence in Udoka and Bowen, but we probably have these guys another year. I’m okay if that’s all we have to guard the Kobe/Pierce/JoshHowards of the league, but we at least need a player to make others defend the SF when we are on offense?
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