Friday, June 12th, 2009...3:49 am
The Next Great Bigman?
48MoH reader Matthew, whose parents have held Spurs season tickets since 1970, emailed with this observation:
Pundits are quick to mention Dwight Howard as the best big today and everyone seems to be in awe of the season he had this year but when compared across the board statistically to even just the rookie years of players like Shaq, Duncan, the Admiral, and Olajuwon it appears that these players came into the league better players.
Maybe Matthew is correct. I’m not sure. But a chart he sent along gives us something to think about.
| YEAR |
AGE |
FG% |
STL |
BLK |
TO |
PF |
OFF |
DEF |
TOT |
AST |
PTS |
|
| Olajuwon |
1984-85 | 22 | .538 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 11.9 | 1.4 | 20.6 |
| Robinson |
1989-90 | 24 | .531 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 12 | 2 | 24.3 |
| O’Neal |
1992-93 | 20 | .562 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4 | 4.2 | 9.6 | 13.8 | 1.9 | 23.4 |
| Duncan |
1997-98 | 21 | .549 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 2.7 | 21.1 |
| Howard |
2008-9 | 23 | .572 | 1 | 2.9 | 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 9.6 | 13.9 | 1.4 | 20.6 |
Notice that Matthew has compared Howard’s 5th season numbers to the rookie campaigns of his Hall-of-Fame peers. He goes on to say:
It seems to me that, arguably, each of these players came into the league already a better all around player than Howard is today, not to mention that those years were when the NBA was a man’s league, as Kobe would say. Many pundits are quick to say Howard is the best big today and were in awe of the season that he had but I tend to call him slightly overrated at this point in his career, or at least I would definitely say he’s on a lower tier than these players. People gawk at Howard’s shot blocking skills but the Admiral and Shaq averaged 1.0 blk more a game. Now that’s impressive.
Of these 5 maybe Howard does rank last. Relative to his contemporaries, however, he’s a man apart. But does this really diminish Dwight Howard’s greatness? Or does it simply serve to further magnify the careers of The Dream, The Admiral, The Big Fill In the Blank, and The Big Fundamental. There is a reason for the 12 championship rings they share. Dwight Howard is already rubbing elbows with those who have an unquestioned place at the best ever big table. That’s not too bad.
But Matthew is correct in this: If Howard wants a chair at the table, he’ll have to continue to improve and collect some hardware. For as far as he’s come, he isn’t quite there yet. In the meantime, Matthew’s email stands as a challenge to cultivate a long memory. It’s easy to forget.
24 Comments
June 12th, 2009 at 6:07 am
I think Howard is not as good as any of these guys nor he never will be. The fact that he cannot score as a primary weapon is a big difference maker for me. Taking so few shots in great games (last night) say a lot. However, you do have to remember that Howard came into the league at 19 years old, so it would be unfair to him to compare season by season, as it would be unfair to compare the rookie season of the others if they are compared by age since Howard would’ve played a few seasons more by that time.
June 12th, 2009 at 6:09 am
Interesting point. I think throughout this series there has been talk about college players vs straight from high school etc. And everyone’s shining examples are of course Kobe and Dwight.
Recently we had a discussion on PTR about Dwight vs The Admiral, Shaq etc. What Mathew points out above is what I feel, in that those guys came into the league with much more of an offensive repertoire and better movement around the basket than Dwight. Those guys already had go to moves. I still don’t know what Dwight’s move is. I could argue, SVG is doing sub standard coaching in NOT using more lobs mixed into the offense to increase Dwight’s effect on the O and change how they are covering him.
Imo, I don’t know what Dwight has been doing for the last five years, but he’s gotta have developed more offense than what he’s got. Patrick really doesn’t have to teach dunking. When compared to other young big names, those guys are finding new gears every season. What’s Dwight doing?
June 12th, 2009 at 7:15 am
LZ,
weights?
No, but seriously, this is similar to how people are like “who is the next Jordan?”. Comparing people to the beyond exceptional is an almost impossible argument. He definitely isn’t to their caliber now but he is only 23 years old. I also agree with Varner on his point of how its pretty amazing to just be in that conversation. He will end up being in the lower half of the top big men list or the top of the second tier list. Either would be a great accomplishment.
June 12th, 2009 at 7:41 am
he won’t be as good as those other because of what Juan said. He doesn’t score consistently. And these Finals have shown it. He’s not even the best center in the NBA now. That honor goes to Yao Ming. Until Howard can be as good on offense as he is defensively (even though that’s not even as good as people say) he won’t manage to beat out Yao for the best center in the NBA, let alone the best of those big-men.
June 12th, 2009 at 8:57 am
One thing all of the bigs mentioned had in common is a great point guard who new how to get them the ball and a offense that built around them. Howard has neither of these even though J. Nelson is getting better. His worst enemy is his teams offense scheme which is backwards. It’s built around relying on the 3pnt shot. They go to Howard as an afterthought.
June 12th, 2009 at 9:17 am
My point was that IMO Dwight Howard is overrated at this point in his career. I agree with LionZion in asking what is Ewing really teaching him? Before Bynum got hurt it appeared Kareem had him turning the corner. Dwight has had 5 yrs in the league and yet still no offensive game to speak of. I feel like people only mention him in the same breath as the greats because we are all starving for a traditional “big” along the lines of the David’s, Hakeem’s, etc. While each of those players grew tremendously over their respective careers, none of them had as much work to do as Dwight still does. You think Dwight will win 2 rings, score 71 in a game, get a quad-double, etc…
June 12th, 2009 at 10:36 am
The statistical analysis bit is very interesting.
In my opinion, Howard is every bit as good as those other guys were in terms of rebounding and shot-blocking. As you mentioned, those other guys played in a “man’s league,” where touch fouls were not called as frequently. I think Howard’s rebounding numbers would be even more gaudy and his blocks would probably compare to the Dream’s and Shaq’s if the game was still played that way.
I do think that Howard’s offensive skillset is underdeveloped in relative to the other players in varying degrees.
I’d agree that Howard is probably one of lower (or possibly the lowest) ring on this tree of greats, but as you said, even to be mentioned in the same breath is an accomplishment in and of itself.
If Howard is ready to climb the ladder of all-time great bigs, I think it will come down to his determination and will to get better. All of the aforementioned guys had an unquenchable thirst for winning, and it’s too early to tell if Howard possesses that same intangible.
June 12th, 2009 at 10:38 am
I’ll play devil’s advocate for the moment (I actually have no strong opinion on this either way, but that’s never kept me quiet before
).
One small point to consider that actually argues in Howard’s favor — the change in the hand-checking rules makes it much easier for perimeter guys to blow by their defender and come flying at the basket now. You could argue that that change alone makes being an elite defensive center much more difficult. A weaker version of that argument would be that it’s harder for big men to stay out of foul trouble than it was back in the day.
You could also argue that another trend in the game has made it harder for Howard to get the touches he needs to keep developing his offensive game — teams take far more 3s now than they ever did in the 90s or earlier, and the Magic are one of the best examples of that trend.
June 12th, 2009 at 10:38 am
Howard’s post moves:
1. an ugly baby hook moving across the middle of the lane
2. baseline drop step to dunk
Like Kareem said, he’s predictable. Also, he would have a much better chance of getting and-1s if he would stop bringing the ball down below his waist when he catches it under the basket. It allows people to wrap up his arms. If he kept them up, it would be a much easier finish.
Sorry, I don’t do well with generalities. I’m a details guy.
June 12th, 2009 at 10:57 am
NickyDubs:
I have noticed that now that I had the chance to see more of him. He keeps bringing the ball down allowing smaller and weaker defenders to foul him and prevent him from making the basket. Considering his FT abilities that costs him a lot. Anything but a touch foul and he can’t finish.
June 12th, 2009 at 11:06 am
More with the devil’s advocate stuff:
Another point that argues in Howard’s favor — whether or not he has signature moves right now (or even any good moves, for that matter), all of the other guys on the list except for Shaq were elite offensive players because they could also shoot the ball. That’s one skill that Howard realistically could improve on considerably over the next couple of years if he works on it a lot — MJ, Kobe, and Lebron weren’t fantastic shooters when they first came into the league, and neither were Amare and Bosh. They all learned to hit jumpers pretty well for their position, though. Likewise, Duncan’s foul shooting generally has gotten better with age, even if he does regress from time to time.
Howard has shown signs this playoffs that his shooting is starting to come around — his free-throw shooting surprisingly has been pretty solid. He may not be quite on par with the other guys on this list above in terms of where he is at the same age, but you could argue that if his numbers are somewhat comparable to these guys even given his obvious offensive limitations, then he has more room to improve in the next couple of years than the other guys on the list.
June 12th, 2009 at 11:38 am
What the hell are yal talkin about? Dwights numbers are good compared to all of them, even tho hes in his 5th year… he is also the only one on the list to come STRAIGHT OUT OF HIGHSCHOOL!
Meaning he didnt get to learn in college like the other players… He is number one in rebounds on this list. Number one in field goal percentage… Sure he’s tied for last in points…. with HAKEEM!!! And only a year older than him… He has the second lowest rate of turn overs and people talk about how bad his hands are all the time… I think thats pretty damn good
June 12th, 2009 at 11:39 am
There’s definitely a point here, and it’s without question that Howard’s post moves (and overall offensive game) need plenty of work. However, I believe these stats are slightly misleading.
One, Dwight Howard doesn’t get the ball nearly as much as these guys did. He’s one of four primary options on the Magic, and he will go extended stretches without even touching the ball. These stats even illustrate that point a little bit, as Howard’s field-goal percentage is better than any of those four guys.
Two, it’s almost impossible to compare eras. For instance, Dwight Howard may have averaged less blocks than Robinson and O’Neal, but he has a higher block percentage (percentage of two-pointers blocked while a player is on the floor). Robinson averaged 3.9 blocks per game, but he only blocked 4.6 percent of the shots. Dwight blocked 5.9 percent of two-pointers this season. The explanation is that the game is played at a slower pace today, or opposing players aren’t challenging Howard they way they did those other guys. Either way, this year’s Dwight Howard was a far better shot blocker than any of those guys.
(you’ll find similar results if you look at these players’ rebounding percentage)
And to the commenter above who said Dwight brings the ball down low too much, you’re absolutely right. Dwight is insanely athletic and played a guard-like role in high school, so there are a lot of simple big-man fundamentals that Howard still has to work on. It’s pretty amazing that he can be so good while having problems with things such as keeping the ball up high, extending his arm on jump shots and setting a pick.
June 12th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
I could not agree more with what everyone is saying about Dwight bringing the ball down. Last night at least three times in the fourth quarter and OT alone Dwight caught the ball at head level or higher right in front of the basket and every time he brought the ball down to his waste. All this did was allow whoever the help defender was to get there in time and wrap him up before he could go up for the dunk. If he had just landed on the balls of his feet, kept the ball above his head, and gone right back up after he caught it he would have been able to score and maybe get fouled on all three of those. What Pau did on that and-1 dunk at the very end (the one where Pietrus hammered him in the back) is exactly what Dwight should do every time. It seems like he always has to gather himself before he goes up to dunk. He needs to learn how to dunk quickly. Every dunk doesn’t need to be a dunk that breaks the shot clock.
June 12th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Ro and Zach:
The difference here is that Howard doesn’t score that much because he doesn’t get the ball enough, it’s exactly the other way around. He doesn’t get the ball enough because he can’t score to deserve that many times. The other guys scored despite the fact that everyone knew the entire offense was built around them. Also if you want to analize stats, most of Howard’s points do not come from a play he created but rather on a good assist or offensive rebound. Again, is not that he doesn’t score for lack of touches but the other way around.
June 12th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Completely agree with Juan. Ro, of course Howard is going to win FG%, all of his baskets are dunks are within 3 ft. of the rim. Of course he is going to get a ton of rebounds, everyone else on his team is out on the 3 pt line on offense and they are playing R. Lewis at PF. With more 3 pointers being taken today, I would want to see the percentage of shots in the paint that were blocked and not just 2 point shots. Isn’t 4 years in the NBA at least as valuable as any experience the 4 hall of famers had coming into the NBA?
To whoever said Duncan has become a better free throw shooter, they need to look at the numbers. They are incredibly inconsistent. His best season (79.9%) was in his 5th year and his worst was in 7th (59.9%). This season was only 3% higher than his rookie season. In his first 6 seasons, he had 3 seasons over 70%. In the last 6, only 1 over 70% and all 3 of his worst shooting seasons.
June 12th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
Without looking at the numbers I would have said that Duncan has become a better shooter overall, long jumpers and FT. Maybe he has improved the timing of when he makes the shots or makes them when I get to watch games.
June 12th, 2009 at 8:37 pm
Also, Zach, if Howard plays until he is in his 30’s then his career block percentage should go down. Duncan had his worst blocking season this year in a tie with the 98-99 strike season where he played 25 less games.
On TO’s, I wish I could provide a stat because I hate to assume, but I assume that the rookie season is typically the highest. Duncan is an example of this as is 3.4 TOPG his rookie year was his highest. In fact, his first 6 seasons are all above his career average and the last 6 seasons are all equal or lower than his career average.
Duncan and Robinson played together. This clearly would effect both players’ stats, especially Duncan’s rookie year which is being used for the comparison. Actually, last season Duncan matched seasons played with and without Robinson at 6. Basically, Duncan played his most athletic seasons with one of the greatest centers of all time and still has crazy block numbers. The argument can work for Robinson as well saying he played his last 6 seasons with the greatest power forward ever at his most athletic point in his career.
Howard is the highest ranked player on his team this season in usage but is 42nd in the league. He is 38th in the playoffs with his usage actually dropping from 23.0% to 20.1%.
Another note: Duncan’s highest FG% year was his rookie season which is the one in the table. He is a 50.7% shooter on his career and been fairly consistent with 10 seasons between 48.4% and 50.8% and his rookie season at 54.9% and ‘06-’07 at 54.6%.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/stats?playerId=215
June 13th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
I did some number crunching the other day, taking Howard’s dunks out of his shooting percentage. Turns out his dunkless percentage hovers around 40%. I ran the numbers for Shaq, who was second behind Howard in dunks, and Shaq still shot 51 or so percent. Duncan hasn’t dunked since 2006, so his percentage is basically unchanged at nearly 50%. (I can post the exact numbers if anyone really wants me too.)
People say he’s the next great center, I say he’s just a much more aggressive Mutombo. The guy has the most ridiculously mechanical jump/rolling hook I have ever seen. I swear he travels every time, and I know what entails a travel on a rolling hook shot because that was my signature move throughout high school and college. Seriously, if he would hire me as his personal trainer, I could have him scoring 35 a night, with some free throw form added in for good measure.
He is the ultimate physical machine to play center. He’s got Shaq’s power and Robinson’s athletic grace (except on offense). If he could develop a dead eye sky hook or a Dream Shake, and he wins a couple titles, you’d have to throw him into the discussion for best center of all times. Just not until he gets some O game going.
June 13th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Surely the question begs to be asked. If ANY of those bigs listed had the team Howard has, would any team in the history of basketball have a chance at beating them?
Put simply, Howard is not a game winner, he’s a rebounder. A young version of any of those listed would absolutely tear him to shreds if they had the shooters to spread the floor that he has. Have a look at how good Gortat looks working in the magic’s system, that should provide some perspective as to how easy it is to operate when you have a team full of 6′10 wingmen who are deadly from 3.
Howard will continue to put up numbers doing what is easy, but until anyone has any confidence in him being able to score when he wants he should not be in this conversation.
June 14th, 2009 at 7:06 am
Something else I read from this table: until Duncan there was a new dominating big coming in the league every 3 to 5 years. We’re talking about first ballot HOFer who affected the game in incredible ways, statistical monsters, multiple rings types of guys.
And then virtually nothing between Duncan and Howard - more than 10 years. Yao is the only one I can think of and he’s good but not in the same league as the other guys.
June 14th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
@Will: Interesting observation. That speaks volumes of the impact of the league’s hand-checking rule changes. Overall, it has become more of a guard’s league as a result (with Duncan & Shaq the obvious exceptions).
June 14th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
It should also be noted that Duncan, Robinson, Shaq, and The Dream each played at least 3 yrs of college ball. Dwight has said that he definitely made the right decision to come out early but maybe these players developed into better all-around players in that time via college.
June 16th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Take your Spurs glasses off and look at the numbers that D. Howard put up at age 23. D. Robinson was a Rookie at age 24.
Howard has a bright future. I can say this without ever questioning my loyalty to the Spurs and Robinson.
We don’t need to take other players down to make our own players look good. Robinson and Duncan are locks as All-Time Greats.
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