I only mentioned that Duncan played “half-a-leg” last season… and you and yes i believe it is a temporary injury… on the other hand you seem to insists it would be permanent.
Remember that Duncan never rely much on Power and athleticsm. he is effective because of his high Basketball IQ and great fundamental skills… (No wonder great big men of ALL TIME has high regard for him Bill Russel, Dr. J, Bill Walton just to name a few…)

and yes the Duncan decline is overrated… it has been mention since 2006, and guess what the Spurs still was able to win a ring in ’07.

We also know that besides hardwork, teamwork and dedication, championships still need a little luck (we could argue that with a healthy Manu in ’08 the Spurs could have won that series…)

“On the defensive stats, it is well known that it basketball offensive production is far easier to quantify than defensive production. This is not my bias speaking, but rather common sense.”

in case you don’t remember DEFENSE wins CHAMPIONSHIPS… and you pointed out that statistically speaking Duncan has the edge over Gasol even at this point. For the last Decade, champioship teams wins because of great defense (see Spurs ’99, ’03, ’05, 07, Detroit ’04, Boston ’08, maybe even Lakers ’09) so there goes your common sense…

I agree with you on this…
“If Tim Duncan regains his health fully, and his athleticism comes back to 90%+ of its peak, then I would agree with you. But I just don’t see that happening. I wish i were wrong (i actually do because i love to see great teams at full strength go against one another), and we will see next year.”

and yes i also wish you where wrong… We this upcoming season and hope that everybody stays healthy only by then we can have a better argument…

As of now he isn’t the defensive player Duncan is, but if you compared their numbers offensively and watched both, I would give the slight edge to Gasol based off of what you see…but again, its hard to for sure say anything, because both play in different offenses.

Pau is 29 now. Duncan is 33. If you compared Duncan 4 years ago to the Pau now, I would say Duncan of then has the edge. That Duncan dominated the finals against Detroit, while Pau played a sidekick role in this finals series.

As far as overall careers goes. It’s not close. Duncan wins. He led 4 different teams to championship rings.

Instead of: “all the stats that i talked about take into consideration the lesser number of touches that Tim Duncan gets.”

It should have been: “all the stats that i talked about take into consideration the slower pace of play of Tim Duncan’s team.”

I don’t respond well to insults, so in the future if you would like dialog please lay off them.

One point i’d like to respond to is this:
“Timmy gets the lion’s share of touches, but the Spurs have fewer possessions than the Lakers, and play a slower game generally speaking.”

All the stats that i talked about take into consideration the lesser number of touches that Tim Duncan gets. For instance the offensive efficiency is points produced per 100 touches. The true shooting percentage and field goal percentage obviously have no relevance to how fast you play. And I believe PER and the like take pace of play into consideration as well.

On the defensive stats, it is well known that it basketball offensive production is far easier to quantify than defensive production. This is not my bias speaking, but rather common sense.

You wrote: “i think you have a good argument here… but you should take into consideration that Tim Duncan literally played on “half-a-leg” most of last season.”

I tend to agree with you. As i said in my post, Tim Duncan at peak level is better than Pau Gasol. But i think where we differ is that I think Tim Duncan is playing on “half-a-leg” due to age and the natural decline you get from it. You on the other hand seem to believe that it is a temporary injury. If Tim Duncan regains his health fully, and his athleticism comes back to 90%+ of its peak, then I would agree with you. But I just don’t see that happening. I wish i were wrong (i actually do because i love to see great teams at full strength go against one another), and we will see next year.

But here is when you start to contradict yourself. You say that the Tim Duncan decline is over-rated –yet a paragraph earlier you said that he was playing on half-a-leg. Obviously if it looks like he is playing on half-a-leg, then he has declined.

And on the comparison between Tim Duncan and Pau, you go into Duncan’s life time achievements. These have no relevance to the conversation since the argument is not who has had the better career, but rather who is the better basketball player at the current time. Also it should be noted that Pau did have multiple 50+ game win seasons with the Grizzles, a team which outside of Pau was an abomination on the basketball court.

And of course Pau has gained due to his play with Kobe. I believe Kobe is the best player in the league and one of the 10 best all time. However, it should also be noted that Duncan has had some great help with his play: Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli to name 2.

And luck really has had nothing to do with the lakers winning the championship. This is the 2nd time in 2 years that they made it to the NBA finals –last year the lakers played the NBA finals without 2 of their starters, Trevor Ariza and Andrew Bynum. This year they had those starters back, although Bynum was definitely playing on half-a-leg. Thus last year they only got to the NBA finals (beating your spurs in the process) and this year winning the NBA championship. I don’t call this “luck,” and i doubt that any unbiased individual would.

but it’s clear that you’ve simply never watched a basketball game.

robby made most of the relevant points.

Timmy gets the lion’s share of touches, but the Spurs have fewer possessions than the Lakers, and play a slower game generally speaking.

And I wouldn’t quick to minimize his defensive contributions. You can’t pull a bunch of peculiar secondary stats and ratios like possession shares or true shooting percentage as evidence of PGs offensive advantage and then claim that ‘defense is very hard to gauge’ when the same dumb numbers favor Tim.

Also Pau played 12 games against the Warriors, Clippers, and Kings.

i think you have a good argument here… but you should take into consideration that Tim Duncan literally played on “half-a-leg” most of last season.

i also tend to disagree about this

“My contention is that Pau needs many more touches –he needs the same as Duncan is getting. If he had 28.5% usage rate, his overall ratings would be far superior.”
more touches does not always translate to better production specially if you are regularly doubled/ triple teamed. (as in the case for Duncan)

Gasol just benefits from having Kobe.

Bottom line: The Duncan decline is overrated.

Gasol’s defense on D.howard is overrated (the guy has no post moves. His offense is predictable as Kareem pointed last season’s finals)

Duncan might be aging but i’d still take him over Gasol at this point. THERE IS NO POINT OF COMPARISON… Duncan won Finals MVP 3 times, 2 time season MVP. 4 rings and top dog of the Spurs.

Gasol? 1 ring with a bunch of help and luck… to mention Gasol in the same breath with Duncan is a joke…

So let’s get the facts straight now —I’m saying that right now Pau Gasol is better than Tim Duncan. Since we would have to wait until next season to see if that statement is correct or not, I think the best option is to look at last season. Note that i’m not saying that Pau Gasol is better than Tim Duncan in his prime. I think Duncan has obviously started to decline from his peak –while Pau is still in his peak.

So let’s look at last year’s stats:

PER: Tim Duncan 24.4 Pau Gasol 22.2
Roland Rating: Tim duncan 7.7 Pau Gasol 7.3
Win Shares: Tim Duncan 9.7 Pau Gasol 14.3

These are the only all around ratings I know of players. They say that basically it is a wash, if not Tim Duncan has the slight advantage. However, these statistics tend to rise the more amount of touches/possessions each player gets. Here is the most important stat in my opinion: Usage Rate. This is the percentage of possessions that each player gets when he is on the floor.

Tim Duncan: 28.5
Pau Gasol: 20.4

This means that while Duncan is on the floor he uses 28.5% of the Spurs possessions (shots/turnovers/etc), while Pau only uses 20.4% of the Laker’s possessions. This is a HUGE difference. Pau Gasol is by far the more efficient player –with 1/3 less touches, he gets similar overall ratings. My contention is that Pau needs many more touches –he needs the same as Duncan is getting. If he had 28.5% usage rate, his overall ratings would be far superior.

Thus we move on to the efficiency ratings:

True Shooting Percentage –this is shooting efficiency taking into account free throws 2pt FGs and 3pt FGs.

Tim Duncan: 54.9%
Pau Gasol: 61.7%!!!

An absolutely huge difference here. Pau Gasol is by far the more efficient shooter when taking into consideration free throws and field goals (3pt are also included but neither take any). When Pau gets the ball, you are getting much more bang for the buck than when Tim gets the ball.

Next we can look at just normal FG% –this is not taking into account free throws:

Tim duncan: 50.4%
Pau Gasol: 56.7%

Again, it is obvious that on the offensive side, Pau is far more efficient.

Passing is next —i sure hope that there is no doubt here. Pau is by far the better passer. If he got as many touches as Tim Duncan, he would have higher assists. As they are with the lower number of touches for Pau, they have the exact same assist numbers per game at 3.5 vs 3.4.

This goes over offense –if you look at the offensive rating for each you see the drastic difference. ORtg is an estimate of points produced per 100 possessions (which takes out the difference in touches or possessions between the two.

Tim duncan: 111
Pau Gasol: 126!!

Huge difference. Pau is obviously the better player on offense, and far more efficient.

Defense is what i’m sure most of you are going to use as your #1 reason. Well let’s take a look.

Defensive rating which is an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions.

Pau Gasol: 105
Tim Duncan: 100

An advantage to Duncan, albeit slightly.

Total rebounds:

Tim Duncan: 10.7
Pau Gasol: 9.6

A 1 rebound advantage, per game, to Tim duncan.

Blocks: Tim Duncan 1.7 Pau Gasol 1.0
Another advantage to Duncan on the defensive side.

But then again, defense is very hard to gauge. Pau did an excellent job in this years season and playoffs, as was seen when Dwight Howard was stopped in the finals. Pau was guarding him mostly. Tim Duncan on the other hand seems to have lost a step. He is slower, no doubt.

And next year these stats will move further in the direction of Pau. He is still in his prime, but Duncan will be another step slower due to age.

An unbiased individual would say that they are very close in ability at the current time. No way any unbiased individual would say an argument in one favor or another is a “joke” or is ridiculous.

My girlfriend is from Toronto although I’ve never been. We’re planning a trip for some time this year. If I’m in the neighborhood, I’ll let you know. Hell, maybe I can rig it so that I’m there while the Spurs are in town.