Manu getting $10M is based on the assumptions that he’s healthy and returns to form. If so, he’s a top 5 SG in the league. Obviously, Kobe, Wade, Roy and Joe Johnson make a lot more than $10M. Maybe the closest comparison is Rip Hamilton who recently got extended for $11.6-12.6M/yr.

We can all speculate on whether or not he’ll be healthy, but in the end it’s just guessing. Unless his season’s plagued by injuries or his talent takes a nosedive, there’s absolutely no way he signs for $5M.

btw, i’ve never been bored a day in my life and i’ve certainly never been bored watching my Spurs! : )

I know overpaying is a common recreational activity for owners around the league, but at some point it’s also about what other teams are ready to pay. Sad to say but as we speak Manu’s only value is as an expiring contract. My guess is that he gets signed for 2 years for $5-6m/y, assuming he plays more than 3 games this year (I’m sill not sold on that idea, despite him being rested and healthy and all that)

1) Manu’s expiring contract. Will he be extended, for how much (health-dependent likely), or god forbid his $10M of expiring salary traded?

2) Duncan’s 2010 discount. Tim’s salary drops from over$22M in 2009 to under $19M in 2010.

Both of these issues are central to the Spurs’ immediate future in building the team. Entirely speculation, but I would guess Manu stays relatively healthy and gets re-signed for somewhere around $10M/yr. Why $10M? Because it’s a nice round number. Because it’s roughly the going rate for an aging shooting guard with all-star talent, because it means no pay cut for Manu, and because (due to Tim’s discount) it means the Spurs would have almost exactly the same payroll in 2010 as 2009.

The repercussions of this are considerable. Assuming Peter Holt is comfortable with hitting the same paycheck, the Spurs can do something exciting with their other expiring contracts (Mason, Bonner, Finley). Most teams can’t toss away expiring contracts because they have to use the freed money to counter the incremental raises all their other players receive yearly. But as stated above, thanks to Tim’s discount and assuming Gino gets $10M or so, the Spurs can be players in February.

Maybe the Wizards disappoint and Caron Butler becomes available. Or maybe it’s Detroit and Tayshaun or Rip. I don’t foresee a quality big becoming available, and I’m hoping George Hill makes it entirely unnecessary to search for a PG.

Are there other wings that may pop up on the market? I’ll throw one more out there: James Posey. New Orleans may not want to trade to a contender, but they’re certainly likely to want to shed salary. And Posey could be had for only 2 of our 3 expiring. He’s tough, plays great D, hits big 3s, would make for a formidable bench presence in the playoffs (a la Horry), has the ability to guard mobile 4s, and is a hard-core veteran.

He’s great. We were lucky to get him for a post.

His draft diary is also a good read… significantly better than Bill Simmons.

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/2009/06/shams-unnecessarily-long-2009-draft_1695.jsp

Poor guy wanted Blair so badly….

http://www.NBATradeRumorsCentral.com – Latest NBA Trade Rumors

Thanks, Mark.