Wednesday, September 30th, 2009...7:56 am
Jamie Dixon at Spurs Training Camp
University of Pittsburg head coach Jamie Dixon was in San Antonio yesterday, taking in DeJuan Blair’s first practice. I’m hopeful he and Coach Popovich were able to have a long conversation about Blair.
DeJuan Blair is an all-world force on the boards. He’s especially good on the offensive glass. And by especially good, I mean he’s a singular talent that comes along once in a generation. John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus provides this summation:
Let’s start with two numbers that were already present in separate compartments of my brain but that Ken Pomeroy brought to my attention as a wedded couple:
25.1 21.1
Ah, the decimals, the Courier typeface, you just know I’m gearing up to wield some incredibly complex calculations in support of my choice, right?
Hardly. The number on the left is Blair’s offensive rebound percentage this year. The number on the right is Colorado’s offensive rebound percentage. Repeat: the number on the right is what the entire Colorado team combined to accomplish this season, rebounding 21 percent of their own misses. Blair by himself hauled in 25 percent of his team’s misses during his minutes. For the record Blair also outperformed Nebraska, Samford, Weber State and Iowa State, among others. He is a team unto himself…
…this is the first year we’ve seen a player dominate the offensive glass to such a ridiculous extreme that he alone can outperform entire teams.
No problem with any of that, right? Well, no. But there is a lingering curiosity.
The San Antonio Spurs are a routinely poor offensive rebounding team. In fact, John Hollinger tells us that the Spurs’ offensive rebound percentage was the worst in basketball last season:
San Antonio was the best defensive rebounding team, pulling down 78.1 percent of opponents’ missed shots, and yet the worst offensive rebounding team, collecting only 22.1 percent of their own missed shots. It doesn’t seem possible that a team could rebound so well defensively and so horribly offensively, but in fact the two are very different skills. Additionally, San Antonio’s playing style — with Duncan having his back to the basket and four shooters spacing the floor — has never been conducive to high offensive rebound totals.
And there is something else that Hollinger omitted. Gregg Popovich prefers transition defense to offensive boards. On defense, the Spurs motto is to allow their opponent one, and only one, tough, contested shot. They close out, box, board and break. On offense, they want to create one high percentage shot and then immediately get back on defense. For the most part, the Spurs leave the offensive glass alone in exchange for the opportunity to set up a fortress up around the opposing team’s rim. It’s a transaction that produces historically great defensive teams.
So, then, how should Gregg Popovich treat DeJuan Blair, king of the offensive glass?
This, I think, is a good conversation for Pop to have with Dixon. What are the best ways to space and screen for DeJuan Blair? Luke Winn describes how Coach Dixon was able to assist Blair at Pitt:
Blair’s job mostly calls for him to set an early ball screen (for Fields) while he’s running down the floor, and then camp out in the paint after that. Pitt then attempts to free Blair up for post touches by setting across-the-lane screens, off of which he can receive the ball at close range to the basket, lower his shoulder, and drop it in for two points. Rarely does he roam outside the lane to receive passes, and this keeps him in prime position to clean up others’ misses.
If Coach Popovich wants to maximize DeJuan Blair’s production on the offensive glass, these are the sort of things he’ll have to consider. It’s something to watch.
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14 Comments
September 30th, 2009 at 8:27 am
Tim,
Good stuff here. You may not know this, but how often do the Spurs do things like bring out a rookie’s college coach? Did they do this for George Hill last season to get a better sense of how to utilize him, or is this something different for a guy like Blair?
September 30th, 2009 at 8:36 am
I wouldn’t read too much into it, Andrew. The Spurs have good relationships across the coaching community. NCAA coaches have attended past camps, although I can’t remember a situation that mirrors this one. It could be that they initiated the invitation to Dixon, but we don’t really know.
September 30th, 2009 at 8:42 am
I was just curious. It never dawned on me that teams would do this, but it seems like a good idea. Obviously they talk to a player’s college coach before they draft them. But bringing them to training camp as some sort of an “advisor” to the team about the player could pay some dividends in the short-term.
September 30th, 2009 at 9:08 am
I think Pop has a good pretty good understanding on how he will use Blair we were last in offensive rebounding and although we do wanna get back on denfense it also could help if we got a extra 8-10 points a game off of the o-glass Blair is a unique talent and you wanna take full advantage of his skill set.
September 30th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Tim,
What do you think of the rest of Hollinger’s assessment of the Spurs in 09-10?
Specifically…
Marcus Haislip: “Haislip’s translated stats from Europe weren’t very good and I’d be shocked if he can crack San Antonio’s rotation.”
and Keith Bogans: “Bogans struggled last season and isn’t likely to play a major role. However, because he defends and shoots 3s, he’s a good fit in San Antonio’s system and provides some insurance if Finley suddenly succumbs to age.”
and Theo Ratliff: “could prove useful matching up against the Lakers’ Pau Gasol.”
and Overall: “They’ll win lots of games, because that’s what they always do, and undoubtedly they’ll make a few shrewd in-season moves to boost their chances further. But for all the thrashing in the water the Spurs did this summer, the riptide of age might pull them right back to the same spot it did a year ago.
Prediction: 53-29, 1st in Southwest Division, 3rd in Western Conference”
September 30th, 2009 at 9:53 am
Chris,
In order: Not sure about Haislip; spot-on re: Bogans; right about Ratliff; a little soft on their overall record. I think they’ll win 58 games or so. Challenge the Lakers for the top seed. Although, I agree with Hollinger on the Blazers. They could be really good, and might be right there with L.A. and San Antonio.
September 30th, 2009 at 11:03 am
53 wins in the season might be too low for this teams (they just won 54 last season). I agree with Tim that the Spurs will win around 58 games. Although it wouldn’t really matter (playoff games counts). And Portland is right there in the mix, outside of Boston, Lakers, Magic, Cavs and the Spurs, they are the most dangerous team in the league.
September 30th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Start Blair out on the strong side, then have him set the post to post screen. The post to post screen is devastating and simple to run, plus both guys are able to seal their defenders in any number of advantageous positions. Also, having Blair start on the low block, then running up to the free throw line to set a screen on Duncan et al would allow Duncan to dive to the strong side block for great position and allow Blair to dive weak side for the board.
Also, and this is something that takes practice, is a stagger screen with both posts at the top of the key. Have Blair set the high/first screen and then roll to the weak side. Then Duncan sets the second screen. With this second screen, you can do the pick and roll, but you have more options since the guard defender may be way out of position from the Blair screen. The guard can shoot or drive, the post can roll or pop. But add a post slip to the equation if Duncan’s defender has to contain the guard. This leaves only Blair’s man to guard Blair and a sinking Duncan.
I can think of about 5 more plays, but don’t wanna keep typing. From everything I’ve read about Blair, I think he’s going to fit in so well with us.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
is Blair going to be starting, or is it going to be Mcdyess or Bonner? I think thats going to make a huge difference on how Blair is used. If hes the first big off the bench, we’ll probably see some plays drawn for him. If he starts, hes going to be doing what Kurt Thomas did, but with a little more freedom to attack the glass on offense. Thats my two cents at least. And personally, i hope he starts and Mcdyess comes off the bench with Ratliff.
September 30th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Because everyone else is being so cautious in their predictions, i’m just gonna go on record right now by saying that this is a 60+ win team. given our record last year, the number of close games we lost or games we didn’t compete in due to injury, and given the ability our team now has to still field 3 stars even If one is down, I think we’ll crack 60 again, not that it matters… It’ll be a bit deceptive this year record wise because the good teams have only gotten better since last year and many bad teams have gotten worse, look for another year with a clearly stratified class system amongst NBA teams.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:23 pm
i think you’re right on Jason, both with the win prediction and the stratification.
October 1st, 2009 at 2:23 pm
I feeel like the Spurs can win 60 games, but I’m not sure they actually will. And I only say that because of injury concerns and the potential of the big 3 to get reduced minutes.
October 5th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Disregarding offensive rebounding too much can bite you. I did a study and found that when the Spurs won the titles they were usually average on offensive rebounding and when they didn’t they were near the b0ttom.
Blair was the right pick up but now they have to use him some or at least get to the point where they are prepared to when they need to.
October 5th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Crow,
Send me an email. timothyvarner [at] gma [dot] com.
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