Monday, October 19th, 2009...3:07 pm
On Winning the Division
During today’s live chat, 83% of readers said the Spurs would win the Southwest division. Given that it was mostly Spurs fans tuning in, that isn’t terribly surprising. But the general consensus throughout the league seems to be that the Spurs are the best team in the division.
The response reminded me of a conversation I had with a friend this past weekend. He and I were discussing the division and he asked if the team that won the Southwest tended to make the deepest playoff run. I casually responded “yes,” and we moved on. A few minutes later I thought about it a little further and realized, actually, that’s not true at all.
In 2006 the Spurs won the division. The Mavericks went to the NBA Finals. In 2007 the Mavericks won the division. The Spurs won the title. In 2008 the Hornets won the division. The Spurs made the deepest run of any Southwest division team that year. And last season the Spurs won the division, but both the Rockets and Mavericks made it deeper into the postseason.
In no way am I suggesting that the Spurs would be better off losing the division. This is clearly an instance of coincidence, not correlation. But I think it speaks to how competitive the Southwest has been over the last few seasons.
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17 Comments
October 19th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Missed the live chat… hope all’s well and good Tim!
October 19th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
It goes to show how often great regular season results don’t always translate post-season success.
The Mavs of 07 and the Cavs of last year come to mind.
Given that, is there any point to watch the Spurs during these first couple months of the season? We can’t draw very many conclusions about what kind of team they will be in the post-season from it….or would we be able to tell how they might stack up against the Lakers in May based on a game in November?
(I’ll still watch, but I don’t ever get very excited about games in the first few months, only around the All-Star break and the Rodeo Road trip do I start to care about wins and losses - given that we usually win more than we lose in the first few months.)
October 19th, 2009 at 6:37 pm
I’m also curious about Chris’s question. Of course I’ll watch and love every minute of it, but is the regular season for the Spurs basically just an extended pre-season?
Considering that 82-game record and division and conference standing don’t matter, what does matter for us fans before April?
October 19th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
The Mavs barely went to the finals though. If Manu doesn’t give Dirk an And One, Mavs probably don’t gain enough momentum to beat the Spurs (probably don’t go to OT). Nothing is guaranteed, but it is very likely that the Spurs win.
This has the potential to be the strongest Spurs team in a while. Arguably it’s the best team in terms of overall talent (although Duncan is not as strong of a player as he used to be and Manu is still a big unknown after two years of being injured).
October 19th, 2009 at 8:29 pm
Chris and AP
I can give you a couple good reasons to watch the first couple of months (granted you already said that you would).
1) Richard Jefferson - Adding a guy who can average 20 pts per is gonna be something huge to keep an eye and see how he handles going from THE guy to fourth option, although that was his role during his early days in Jersey.
2) Antonio McDyess - The best big man to play next to Duncan since our dear departed Admiral.
But the biggest reason people should watch at all this season is . . .
3) The Youth Movement - Now more than ever it is noticable that the Spurs are beginning to shift from Tim Duncan’s team to Parker’s team. The embergance of George Hill, and Malik Hairston. The adding of Richard Jefferson, and Marcus Haislip. And of course, the acquisition of DeJuan Blair. Can anyone honestly tell me that last we were sooooo excited about a rookie coming in? I’m sure people will say Parker and Ginobili, but we never got to see them play until they got here. Whereas Blair, we saw all through the NCAA tournament. I firmly believe that he is the most anticipated rookie that we have gotten since Tim Duncan.
Just talking to casual Spurs fans you can tell how excited people are about this guy. It’s nuts! By the way, five bucks says that when the Spurs play the Grizzlies, if Blair goes for a rebound, Hasheem Thabeet decides NOT to go after that same rebound.
October 19th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
man I was so mad in 2006 when mavs went to nba finals instead of spurs and got butt raped. I think the spurs had a much better chance in beating the 06 heat in the finals. Only if there wasn’t that and1 from nowitzki in the final second, man we would have had a back to back championship.
October 20th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
I can’t wait to watch the Spurs, early and often. Why?
- Manu “bucking to get back” Ginobili
- Parker in his Prime
- Jefferson declaring his independence
- Hill now over the hump
- DeJuan “Pounding the Paint” Blair
- Antonio in San Antonio
- Ian two steppin’ Manhinmi
- Theo “Smashing Pumpkins”
- The “Killer M’s” - Manu, McDyess, Manhinmi, Matt, Michael, Marcus, Malik, and Marcus?”
- Bogans bobbin for turnovers
- with Timmy & Pop enjoying it all!
October 20th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Whit…i hope the season starts soon, just so you’ll have something to do instead of thinking stuff up for posts like that
October 20th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
I am excited for this season just like all you guys.
And Zainn, if we had won in 06 it would’ve been a three peat
October 20th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
Just a nitpik, it may be that there is a correlation between winning the division and an early playoff exit, but this correlation does not necessarily imply causation.
Go spurs go! Hella’ excited for the season as well
October 20th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
oh yeah I think a threepeat would have been an all time record lol anyways we were 7-7 in three pointers in the first quarter vs the thunder tonight. Most of it was from finley, bonner, and hill. That’s just phenomenal and two of bonners were back to back. I think our team chemistry is really good man, can’t wait for next week against the hornets. The season begins soon fellow spurs fans!
October 21st, 2009 at 2:28 am
Guys! just want to share this Duncan pic please tell me what you think? Thanks!
October 21st, 2009 at 6:09 am
Oh my goodness! There were two dunks by the Spurs in one set of highlights (one by Blair, the other by Hill)! Isn’t that considered blasphemy by Pop?
October 21st, 2009 at 8:24 am
another awesome game from Blair: 17 pts, 10 boards, and 3 steals in 15 minutes.
October 21st, 2009 at 6:50 pm
Enjoyed the chat on ESPN!
As far as the topic goes, I really can’t see the Spurs with less than 57 wins. Even with Pop resting key guys, the Spurs are so deep this year that unless Parker, Duncan and Manu are all held out of games at the same time, there are plenty of guys that are able to pick up the slack for short periods of time.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:32 pm
Robby, love TD at Wake doing a Garnett.
He’s as thin as that coming into the season.
Maybe the low carb diet has emotional side effects
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:56 am
Sorry I missed the live chat Graydon and Tim. I was looking forward to firing off some questions. As far the poll of fans picking the Spurs to win the division, I currently have the Spurs winning the division, but I think it’ll be very close at the end with the Spurs and Mavs jockeying for division lead. The division, and the west will be very competitive this season, and the Spurs can’t afford to be off unless they are prepared to lose some games. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch, that’s for sure.
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