Monday, October 19th, 2009...5:16 am
Theo Ratliff by the Numbers
There are two things to know about Theo Ratliff. The first is that he’s not durable. He’s played a (near) full season of basketball only once this decade. In the most recent two seasons, he played 26 and and 46 games, respectively.
This first set of numbers should give fans a sense of how the Spurs might use Ratliff. My best guess-my hope, really-is that Gregg Popovich plays Ratliff just enough to acclimate him to the system and keep him in game shape, but not a minute more. This will strike most of our readers, those who follow the entire league, as obvious. But I want to sharpen the focus on Ratliff by throwing another number at you.
Theo Ratliff is a potential postseason game-changer, if he can make it there in one piece. This is not true against every team, or in every match-up. But short stints of Duncan-Ratliff or McDyess-Ratliff is akin to throwing a noose around the lane and kicking the chair out from under its feet. Theo Ratliff is an incredibly effective defender.
According to Steve Ilardi’s defensive adjusted plus minus (DAPM), Theo Ratliff is among a handful of exceptional interior defenders. Ratliff’s six season (2003-2009) DAPM is 4.64. To help put this in perspective, consider that Tim Duncan’s six year DAPM is 4.78 and Yao Ming’s is 4.38. Former Spur and defensive ace Kurt Thomas boasts a 3.65. Fan favorite trade targets Chris Andersen (3.34) and Marcus Camby (4.19) are not, in terms of DAPM, Theo Ratliff’s betters. Few players are better than Ratliff at protecting the rim.
As a situational defensive substitute, the Spurs were spot-on to ink Theo Ratliff’s deal.
Theo Ratliff and Matt Bonner provide the Spurs with two unique skill sets that give Coach Popovich the flexibility of substituting a potent offensive or defensive weapon into play, depending on game flow. Theo Ratliff’s lack of durability gives Popovich just enough of an excuse to play Ian Mahinmi or Marcus Haislip in garbage time or in back-to-back scenarios wherein Ratliff would otherwise see 8-12 minutes of playing time.
This is a long-winded way of saying that the Spurs’ frontcourt rotation is not as perplexing as we might think, even though it goes seven players deep. Assuming good health, a three man rotation of Duncan-McDyess-Blair seems small but appropriate based on preseason performance. The fourth member of the rotation would be one head of the two-headed situational beast that is Bonner-Ratliff.
Related posts:
15 Comments
October 19th, 2009 at 5:44 am
I wish pop would play Blair with Duncan or dice so we can get a feel who Blair has the capability of defending on a nightly basis. If the lakers go to a bynum-odom-gasol frontcourt would Blair be able to get on the floor?
October 19th, 2009 at 6:35 am
I would think so. Blair is going to have to build his defensive reputation by guarding players bigger than him (see: UConn), and it doesn’t really matter who guards Odom, anyhow. No one matches up with Odom. It is always a question of picking your poison. He could also probably step up to challenging Bynum (though I think he would certainly be the weak link on the floor in that position). No matter what in that situation, the key comes down to two words: “Help Defense.”
October 19th, 2009 at 9:33 am
Wow, I didn’t realize how great of a defensive player Ratliff is, aside from his knack for batting away the ball. I like seeing that he’s the antithesis of Bonner.
October 19th, 2009 at 9:46 am
This front court roster reminds me of our 2003 championship team. Blair plays the part of Malik Rose, Matt Bonner as Danny Ferry, Theo Ratliff as Kevin Willis, Antonio Mcdyess as David Robinson and Richard Jefferson as Stephen Jackson. Sounds like a recipe for success to me. The question remains however, who will be 2009’s Mengke Bateer?
October 19th, 2009 at 11:03 am
I’m really liking how we seem to be putting a little more emphasis on D this season compared to the last 2. I know it’s not a 2003 or 2005 emphasis, but it’s there. You may point out that we don’t have a defensive stopper on the team anymore, but since we are so deep at every position, each guy can kick his personal D up a notch and we’re going to be suffocating. How do you keep the Lebrons/Kobes/and Wades of the league in check? Give them their 30 but don’t let anyone else score 20. I think we have that kind of team, as long as everyone can gel like we hope they can.
Also, no other contending team in the league cares less about standings than the Spurs, so all of the minutes will be carefully monitored. I think you will see the freshest team in the playoffs, come April.
October 19th, 2009 at 11:15 am
LonghornMike, the part of Mengke Bateer is played by either Mahinmie or Keith Bogans.
October 19th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
No Spur can really match up with Odom. But no one can really match up with Parker or Manu when they are on. So the mismatches will exist on both sides. With that said….
The hope is Hailslip can improve over the season to stay in front of Odom as much as possible. Maybe Hairston who’s 6′6, with some wing span can help cover since he’s very athletic.
With Blair, you’d want him to be on main guy rebounding in that unit (if Duncan is not in). McDyess would probably be the better guy (if it’s a lineup of Blair/Dyess up front).
Theo is good to have, even just for teaching the young guys like Ian, Hailslip, and Blair a thing or two.
October 19th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
Matt,
In the case of Blair vs Bynum in a potential matchup I like what Blair provides, namely: physicality, hustle, positioning, energy and limb removal if necessary or available (obviously not malicious).
Bynum, in my estimation is a headcase. A matchup against Blair could destroy his delicate psyche. Blair is seemingly outmatched in the head-to-head but Blair will not give up, will be in position to make a play 90+% of the time, has deceptive wingspan and will even work an effective low-post offensive move against Bynum. Having success like that against an “up-and-comer” like Bynum would really deflate Bynum’s confidence.
Having said all that, Blair is a rookie and is mostly unproven while Bynum has proven his ability. This is purely conjecture, but I like what I sense Blair will be providing us long-term.
October 19th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
Tim, could you please tag this post with Mengke Bateer? Thanks.
Good insight. I like that Theo will be a great asset to have, but doesn’t completely block (pun?) Ian from getting PT in the regular season.
Just curious: does anyone else think that Bonner will be the third big, ahead of Blair?
October 19th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Bonner can now play as a big 3/undersized/underpowered 4 who is behind the arc.
(Depending on the matchups) He’ll probably be in the lineup with Blair, so Blair can board while Bonner throws stuff at the basket.
October 19th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
If the pre-season is any indication, Bonner starting may not yet be out of the question. I suspect he’ll (unfortunately) be the third big primarily though, ahead of Blair.
As for Ratliff, excellent signing. I was pleased when the Spurs signed him. He was exactly the type of big man they were missing (though another 1-2 inches and 20-30 pounds wouldn’t hurt).
October 19th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
@Rye,
If we follow the articles and comments about defense, then we better not see Bonner in the starting lineup. There’s no reason he should be starting with this much depth.
To get the most out of his bright spots and decrease his disadvantages, you have to put him up against 2nd/3rd string guys, not starters.
McDyess/Blair/Ratliff (albeit it short spurts/coming out of the game quickly) are all better options. The lineup has enough perimeter shooting, especially if you run Mason with Parker/Manu/RJ and Duncan.
October 19th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
I’m not adverse to Bonner playing lots of minutes. Tim and Antonio’s biggest enemy this year is the physical grind of 82 games.
But I’m acutally happy that there are 82 games this season to prepare for the playoffs, besides the entertainment. If the Spurs faced the Lakers TODAY in a seven game series they would lose. At least they have time to sort things out.
October 20th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Grego,
I agree. My comments were based on what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. I agree with Tim’s analysis of the big man rotation and how it should go, but I doubt Bonner is used in as limited a role as the majority of us would like.
October 20th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
@Rye,
When I say limited, I mean more of using him in situations when the matchups call for it.
There’s no way you leave him in as long to get abused on defense, especially if he’s not hitting at all.
This is why I think his play time will be more limited unless Pop doesn’t care about defense as much. The team is much improved with guys who can play D and even score.
Not really sure why he started with Finley, but I have my theories.
1- Since they are both shooters, Spurs want to build up their rhythm going into the season
2-Ease McDyess (likely to be the starter) into the starting lineup (although not sure how Finley does anything for anyone else)
Leave a Reply