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Last week ESPN.com asked their national writers to predict the 2009-10 player award winners. Manu Ginobili and Gregg Popovich’s names were suggested in the 6th Man and Coach of the Year categories, but the list caused me to think about the entire Spurs roster.

The ESPN writers did a good job of identifying the major contenders in each category, and it’s difficult to argue with their choices. But thinking about the lists in relation to the Spurs’ roster gave rise to a little fun. If we were to have a conversation about darkhorse candidates in each group, you might be able to work a Spur into most of the conversations.

Rookie of the Year

DeJuan Blair’s name was omitted from ESPN’s list, which isn’t surprising. Most analysts expect Blake Griffin to win the award, and I agree even after yesterday morning’s news of a stress fractured patella. But, as I’ve written before, Blair is a good bet to lead rookies in per minute production. His per minute numbers could secure a few ROY votes in the final tallies.

The preseason numbers on Blair and Griffin suggest more of a contest than you might suspect.

	Min	Pts	Reb	FG%	EFF	EFF48M
Blake Griffin	28.1	13.7	8.1	.569	18.71	32.01
DeJuan Blair	17.7	13.9	7.9	.594	17.86	48.34

In the end, Blake Griffin’s per game averages will distance themselves from Blair. But it’s still a conversation to follow.

Most Improved Player

Here’s a name the ESPN writer’s missed: George Hill. Pop describes Hill as his favorite player; Manu Ginobili says Hill was the best Spur in camp. One advanced scout described Hill’s preseason play in these terms: “One of the most improved players I’ve seen in preseason. Grew leaps and bounds in confidence over summer. Doesn’t look like same player. Looks like he knows he belongs, we expect him to get significant minutes.”

But George Hill won’t even make this conversation unless he averages 6th Man minutes. Recent winners (Bobby Simmons, Boris Diaw, Monta Ellis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Danny Granger) of this award saw more minutes per game than Hill is likely to. But there is a little doubt that Hill’s growth will help motor the Spurs toward more than a few victories. He’s the pacesetter for Most Improved Spur.

Sixth Man of the Year

There is a school of thought which sees this award as Manu Ginobili’s to lose, provided he comes off the bench. The Spurs are a team with a history of advanced statistic case studies: Bruce Bowen’s defensive greatness, Tim Duncan’s quiet efficiency, and Manu Ginobili’s superstar status all find helpful explanation outside the traditional boxscore.

In the Spurs’ preseason game against Oklahoma City, Ginobili finished the first half 0-0 from the field but managed a plus/minus of +22, which led his teammates by a comfortable margin. With Ginobili on the court, the team raced right past the talented Zombie Sonics. He is a cliche: he makes his teammates better.

We’ll soon know whether Ginobili will anchor the second unit. But that second unit also features George Hill and DeJuan Blair, giving the Spurs a potentially devastating supply of reserves. It’s possible George Hill will play himself into the Sixth Man conversation, but it’s not something a betting person would entertain. In my estimation, politics are the driving force in every awards race, and I’m not certain Hill’s supporters will have much of a stump speech. He’s third party all the way.

In a similar way, it’s not typical to award a rookie with 6th Man honors. But at 20 minutes a game, DeJuan Blair could put up numbers which force him into the conversation. I wouldn’t have said this prior to camp, but I learned a few things about DeJuan Blair in the last month. I had confidence Blair’s rebounding would translate from the NCAA to the NBA-rebounding numbers tend to do that. Whether the undersized (in height only) power forward could offer the Spurs any offense, on the other hand, was an open question.

One of the great surprises of preseason was the realization that DeJuan Blair is capable of scoring in clusters. Blair averaged 9 shots per 17 minutes in the preseason, but he didn’t get there by mindlessly chucking the ball whenever it came to him. His offense is more polished than people give him credit, and he’s incredibly active. He can score the ball without the Spurs running plays for him. He follows his shot, and he collects points off the misfires of teammates. Couple that with his rebounding and Blair emerges as an under the radar 6th Man candidate.

Coach of the Year

There are always guys who couldn’t win an award enough times. Michael Jordan might well have won MVP every year the Bulls won a championship. But it never happens like that. Gregg Popovich has only been named COY once, in 2003. Doesn’t that seem wrong to you?

Despite all the newly infused talent, Popovich has a tough road ahead. The Spurs’ system is difficult to master and the roster is littered with new faces. Plus, there is the challenge of managing the minutes of aging veterans while developing young talent, such as DeJuan Blair and George Hill. And above all this, Popovich must push his team to reestablish their claim to defensive stalwart status. This forecasts as Popovich’s most challenging season with the Spurs. If the Spurs do well this season, Popovich is an easy-to-see COY candidate.

Defensive Player of the Year

Tim Duncan has been named to 12 All-Defensive teams, but has never won Defensive Player of the Year. That’s criminal. At 33, his opportunities at winning the award are dwindling. Still, it’s something to watch. The Spurs’ embarrassingly talented roster could provide Duncan the cushion to concentrate more of defense than in recent years, years in which he was still an All-League defender. Put Duncan in the running.

Manu Ginobili is a super stealth candidate for the award. According to Steve Ilardi’s defensive APM, Manu Ginobili is amongst the best perimeter defenders over the last six years. Here’s a list to consider:

1. Ron Artest (+5.09)
2. Shane Battier (+3.92)
3. Manu Ginobili (+3.24)
4. Bruce Bowen (+2.95)
5. Trevor Ariza (+2.87)

There are a few younger and/or lower minute players (Thabo Sefolosha, +3.75) whose numbers are impressive, but I’ve not included them here. The point is not to create a definitive list, it’s to say that Manu Ginobili appears underrated as a defender. It’s something I plan to watch this season, and if the advanced statistics present him as an elite defender, especially against the apparent backdrop of past defensive success, I’ll write about it early and often. Ginobili has benefited from playing alongside Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen, no doubt. But his surprisingly dominant defensive numbers invite at least a little scrutiny.

Part of the beauty of Manu Ginobili is how easy it is to overlook his brilliance. He’s a highlight reel, for sure. But his best stuff lurks beneath the surface. It’s difficult to quantify just how good he is. Thankfully, a tiny band of mathematically-gifted basketball lovers are hard at work putting handles on all of our slippery questions.

Executive of the Year

The ESPN writers didn’t vote on this award, but it doesn’t take much wit to know R.C. Buford deserves the recognition. 10x over. The Spurs are the winningest team in American sports since Buford came on as GM. How many times has he won this award? Weird, huh?

Most Valuable Player

As much as I’d love to trumpet Tim Duncan for this award, it will take an unexpectedly brilliant season (and more minutes than he is likely to play) for Duncan to lay claim to his third MVP award.

Tony Parker parades around in the realm of remote possibility. This would be a laughable suggestion, even as a remote candidate, if not for two things.

The first is that Tony Parker was one the best three or four players in basketball for November, December and January of 2008-9. His PER kept pace with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade and John Hollinger found more than one occasion to laud Parker.

The second reason is that the Spurs could put up a huge win total this year. If Parker plays his best for the full season and the Spurs rush past 60 wins, he might work himself into consideration. But even then, Dwight Howard, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul all have the marketing machines to more than marginalize TP. It doesn’t look like a Spur will win MVP this year.

Of course, thinking Spurs fans remember that Tony Parker was gassed, and injury-riddled, by the time the 2008-9 postseason swung around. Whose with me in hoping Parker doesn’t get near this conversation?

Related posts:

1. A Note of Caution: Work to be Done
2. Spurs vs. Spurs, Training Camp Scrimmage
3. Should the Spurs Make Another Move Before Camp?
4. The Dennis Lindsey Interview
5. On the Five Game Winning Streak