Saturday, January 23rd, 2010...8:37 am
Houston Rockets 116, San Antonio Spurs 109
Some fans are hearing a death knell. I’m not quite there, but I’m a little worried and a lot confused.
Last night’s loss to the Rockets was a straightforward affair. Houston played better. The Spurs, if they’ve shown anything this season, are simply not good enough to get it done against playoff-caliber teams. The Spurs’ offense looks sloppy; their defense doesn’t make the critical stops.
After the game, Gregg Popovich could not have been more clear.
You got to play a lick of defense if you want to win in this league. Our defense against Utah and against Houston was very poor. 60 points in the second half against Utah and 61 in the second half tonight. That’s not going to win basketball games. It looks like the effort and all that sort of thing is great, but way too many mistakes…not enough focus…not enough execution. We’re scoring enough points to win games. We’re scoring more points than we’ve ever scored in our lives, but our defense is really sub-par and it’s killing us.
In addition to this, the Spurs must be concerned about Tony Parker. Parker posted 22 points and 10 assists last night. Good line. And he looked the part of a good basketball player, but he’s not himself.
Parker is playing through a combination of injuries, and the French speedster’s trade mark zip-zoom to the hoop is not there. Or, at least, it’s there less frequently. Project Spurs recently posted a helpful take on Plantar Fasciitis, the condition that is dramatically reducing Parker’s RPMs. Parker, the doctors would tell us, needs to rest.
But curiously, the Spurs have opted not to rest Parker’s sore body. Everyone else gets rest. The Spurs strike out against the possibility of injury to Tim Duncan by preemptively resting him. Dice gets a pinch nerved, he sits. Jefferson’s back is a little sideways, he sits. Ginobili gets a cold and a team of specialists are flown in from the four corners. And so on.
Parker? He continues to soldier-through.
No team is more concerned about being healthy for the playoffs than the Spurs. That’s why Parker’s lack of rest is such a head-scratcher. Why not give him a week or three off? Obviously, their medical people know something we don’t. Perhaps, Parker is so bad gone that a few games rest here and there won’t bring his heel back to health. It’s hard to tell.
But what’s readily apparent is that this current version of the Spurs is nowhere close to championship contention. Sloppy, score-more-than-you offense. Passionless defensive play. And their wrecking ball point guard is not damaging the opposition with the same force as previous seasons. You know this already, but Parker’s 2010 PER is down 6.54 points from last season. That’s an astronomical drop for a 27 year old point guard. Aaron Barzilai has Parker’s 1-year adjusted plus/minus at an astonishingly low -9.06.
Parker has the lowest APM on the team. In fact, it’s leaps and bounds ahead of the pack, with the exception of Roger Mason Jr, whose headache-inducing -8.81 grabs one by the lapels. Strange, but relative to APM, the Spurs’ backcourt combinations, where they seem to have the most talent, are statistically underwhelming. Watching Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry blow past guys into the lane last night offered a window into this reality, but it’s sobering to look at the actual numbers.
Oh, Bruce Bowen. You were much better than even we knew.
I’m not sounding every alarm. Parker is still a fixture in San Antonio’s most effective 5-man units, but he’s not as effective as the Spurs need him to be. And those 5-man unit stats raise another question I couldn’t help but ask last night. Why do the Spurs play so much small ball?
Because it works?
I’m not anti-small ball, but I am surprised to see that small ball treats San Antonio well, and more often than people want to admit. By one account, the Spurs 4th best floor combination this season is Parker, Mason, Ginobili, Jefferson, and Duncan. And that’s putting it modestly. Barzilai tells us that San Antonio’s most effective combination, and easily so, is Parker, Bogans, Ginobili, Jefferson, and Duncan. In fact, Jefferson at power forward seems effective in a variety of combinations. Most of San Antonio’s best combinations have RJ at the four.
And so the majority of last night’s game saw Popovich giving his best Don Nelson impression. Consider this: DeJuan Blair played 22 minutes, Antonio McDyess 19 and Matt Bonner played only 10. My gut tells me this is too much small ball. Too clever by half, and all that. Couldn’t the Spurs use size to their advantage against a pint-sized Rockets squad? This is my gut talking, but I can’t show it on paper.
Some of the Spurs’ most effective 5-man units, according to 82games.com, feature fronts of Duncan-McDyess, Duncan-Bonner, and McDyess-Blair. Are the Spurs are drifting too far away from their bread and butter defensive front? It’s hard to funnel the guards into shot-blockers when they’re sitting on the bench, and deep down at the end.
Amazingly, I’m at the point of wondering whether the Spurs shouldn’t start a small line-up (sorry, Fred) and feature lengthier line-ups off the bench. We’ve entered a brave new world where San Antonio functions better small, even if many of us are betting that such things are fool’s gold. Is my worry about the advent of the San Antonio Warriors rooted in reality or am I simply paranoid of change?
Perhaps the antidote to small ball is the win column. The Spurs are now 8-15 against team’s that are better than .500. Ultimately, that’s the filter which separates gold from dross. I’m not really sure. What I do know is that this Spurs team makes the least sense to me of any that have gone before.
34 Comments
January 23rd, 2010 at 9:09 am
I really don’t understand Tony. He should be working hard on his jump-shot and 3 pointers now that he’s hurt but I fail to see any improvement in those areas also.
Why didn’t Tony post up against Brooks last night? Come on, hes bigger and stronger and yet failed to take advantage of the match-up.
Our transition defense is horrible. Time after time they scored in the paint for an easy bucket.
Even though we score, we work hard for them, or of course, we just shoot 30 from the arc. We do not share the ball very well. I really feel the Spurs offense is too predictable.
Unless the Spurs are pretending to suck in order to surprise the rest of the league (and me of course) I don’t see them making past the 1st round of the playoffs (that is if they even make it)
January 23rd, 2010 at 9:21 am
Man… I really miss Bruce Bowen…
January 23rd, 2010 at 9:22 am
time to make a trade i see that they got rid of haislip without realizing what they had they are in for a long rest of the season unless they make a trade or let mahimi play or some of the younger players like i would love to see malik haristion play but pop is very stubborn to play whom he likes
January 23rd, 2010 at 10:01 am
Forget small ball and tall ball. These guys just can’t manage to win many games because they can’t sustain a lead. Every time we get up 10, 15 points, the lead seems to evaporate within 5 or six minutes, usually in the third quarter. I see very little sense of desperation to get the win, although last night George Hill’s show of frustration as the game wound down was refreshing in my point of view.
The fact is, when Jefferson says it’s a learning process, he’s right. But you can still learn while playing like your life depends on it. I just don’t see the level of urgency from these players that would lead us to believe they are a team on the cusp of competing for a championship. Yes, most of the guys are used to playing deep into the playoffs, so it’s hard to get excited about the regular season. Well, they better get excited soon, or it’s going to be a quick exit again come April.
I totally agree about Parker, by the way. He’s playing terrible and half the things he used to do on offense have disappeared. The guy needs rest, but it looks like he’s not going to get it.
January 23rd, 2010 at 10:04 am
Let me repeat my prediction that the Spurs won’t get past the 1st round of the playoffs. The Lakers, Nuggets, Mavericks, Jazz, Rockets, Grizzlies, Trailblazers have handily beaten the Spurs. I think the Spurs can hold off the Suns, Hornets, and Thunder for the 8th spot.
But, I think it would be best to make a trade to improve.
Watching Parker and Hill get blown by Brooks and Lowery was atrocious. Why does Hill always turn sideways in front of a penetrating guard anticipating a screen? Stay in front of him and don’t let him go straight to the basket. How irritating to see over and over Hill get to the side of a guard and the guard then dribbles straight to the basket, allowing a layup or an assist because someone had to leave their man and help.
January 23rd, 2010 at 10:04 am
Good job ignoring all these signs that were already there 3 months ago becausr everyone insists on the wait for the rodeo state of mind.
January 23rd, 2010 at 10:20 am
The rodeo is really going to eat this team alive…
January 23rd, 2010 at 10:21 am
At this rate, can we be confident of making playoff’s if we have less than 50 wins? Let us play like a playoff team before trying to be a contender. My heart aches to see the spurs inability to play decent defense, forget about great, can we ask for decent.
January 23rd, 2010 at 11:03 am
First round exit. With Parker’s health, now we see why NBA brass gets bent out of shape when their All-Stars play all summer in Europe. Ginobili already hit that wall.
January 23rd, 2010 at 11:05 am
Pop went small twice: the final 5:43 of the 1st half and the final 5:02 of the game. The first time was a disaster with the Spurs coughing up an 11 point lead as Houston outscored them 18-8 (should have been 20-8, Scola’s offensive goaltend was a lucky break for the Spurs).
Small ball worked better at the end of the game. The Spurs were down 102-93 when they went small. They quickly closed the gap to 4 and had a chance to pull within 1 on an open 3 by Manu at 2:41 and within 2 on a RJ short jumper at 0:36. But both shots missed. In fact, neither team made a jumper in that last 5:02 except for a wide-open 3 by RJ at 3:34. The other 27 points were free throws and layups.
The last 9-10 minutes had a playoff feel, high intensity and physical defense.
January 23rd, 2010 at 11:44 am
Come on guys! Even with TP being banged, up he’s managing to at least get his teammates involved in most plays. He’s not going to be aggressive as he was with this nagging injury. Ask TD. Ginobili, he’s as inconsistent as he comes, but when he’s on… he’s on, but only at home it seems. Can’t do anything on the road. He and Blair make an awesome combo (as long as Blair makes the open layup). Ginobili and McDyess… uhhh, it seems as McDyess is never ready for Manu’s passes. McDyess… you gotta get your hands up and anticipate the pass. Ginobili is gonna draw in the D when he’s got the ball. Stop dropping the darn ball….
January 23rd, 2010 at 12:05 pm
Great recap. Though, Pop’s quote really was all the recap we needed. I think it’s about time for his annual ripping of the team.
As for plantar fasciitis, which I’ve had, 3 weeks won’t be enough time. To fully heal from PF you need at least 2-3 months of rest, sometimes more. A week or two off might make him feel better for a few games, but the PF will come roaring right back. It seems the only solutions are shut him down until the playoffs, or just keep doing what we’re doing. I’ve written a little about this in my recaps, as well.
January 23rd, 2010 at 12:16 pm
no man it is very hard to be in playoffs if we play like this. we need shooters…. forget about championship this year hope we will be in Playoffs???
January 23rd, 2010 at 12:19 pm
Small ball won’t work against Lakers or Celtics, so to me this season is over. No championship this year, so let’s start talking about next year…
At the PF/C, I like the Duncan & Blair starting line-up…Blair will only play better next year. However, the Spurs need an another defense-oriented big man. Maybe Tiago Splitter will provide it to them next season, maybe not. Worth a shot. A line-up of Duncan/Blair with Splitter/Bonner off the bench might be it. Screw Dice…he should retire.
At the SG, I still like Manu…he is trying hard, but he’s not the same Manu as 2-3 yrs ago…I can’t see him put up 30 points? You guys? Spurs should resign him, but at $5-$7MM range for 2-3 yrs. Good bench player now, not All-Star. So, the Spurs will need a solid SG, someone who can play D and score. Tough to fill this spot.
At the SF, we’re stuck with RJ for better or worse…maybe he’ll “get it” next year. He should put up 15-17 pts a game and start playing much, much better defense. Bogans will be a good guy to come off the bench at the SF for additional defense.
At the PG, Parker with a bum foot still puts up 20 pts + 10 assists….so lay-off a bit on him.We’re also set with Hill as his back-up, but I don’t like Hill playing SG or SF…that won’t cut it.
January 23rd, 2010 at 12:19 pm
What really disturbs me is that both Jefferson and McDyess are still very much passive on offence. Jefferson is having career-low FT attempts, and McDyess is almost being used as a mid-range jump shooter, nothing else. Hell, on some nights both Hill and Bogans get more touches than RJ and Dice. What was the point of acquiring these guys when the Spurs are simply going to use them like Bowen and Thomas at the offensive end?
January 23rd, 2010 at 12:24 pm
@SG
As far as I know, Splitter just isn’t physical enough to be a huge factor on defense. The way I see it, it’s either him or re-signing Bonner. Spurs just can’t risk having two big men that cannot defend.
January 23rd, 2010 at 12:50 pm
The Spurs really only trade during the season to tinker - Nazr for Rose comes to mind.
I really believe that after this home stand and the rodeo trip, if they don’t turn the corner, they should really consider shutting down the season.
Now I know how this sounds, but for starters they can shut TP down for the season and let Hill develop. Let the young ones play and get into the lottery. (Where they have had some success in the past.)
The Rockets PG’s scored 46 points last night. TP had a fairly good game, but he just looks gassed. I believe he has PF, but he also looks fatigued.
TD is showing that he’s still got some gas left, so why not wait for Splitter next year. Why waste it this season if they don’t get better? Let Mahinmi play (although it’s starting to look like the Nets game was just a showcase for a trade).
I know there’s too much money and pride invested into this team, but I seriously believe that they have until the rodeo trip to turn this ship around. It’s certainly starting to affect their overall team confidence.
Lastly, Bogans is a fine defensive, situational role player, nothing more. Any offense you get there is bonus. Bonner is like Danny Ferry was, a good shooting role player, not as dirty or chippy, but limited otherwise. They’re asking too much of him, and he’s a good dude - I hope they keep him.
Manu is playing for a contract and I know it’s been a complicated and delicate issue since he’s a fan favorite, but they should really consider throwing a number out there, something lower than what he’s making and see if he bites. Short on years, but fair. RJ’s contract coupled with his really mediocre play is really hurting this team. I hope they figure it out before it’s too late. GO SPURS!
January 23rd, 2010 at 12:59 pm
The Spurs are fucking shit.
We can’t defend. The defense is truly abysmal. I want TD to have a Garnett-esque in his approach to the guys around him. Give them torrents of abuse if they miss rotations and do dumbass things on D.
The simple logic of trying to KEEP A LEAD seems to continually elude the players.
RJ is a total fail. I’d bring back David Robinson and play him at SF, I bet he’d do a better job.
There’s a lack of intensity. They get paid millions to put a ball through a hoop and stop others to put a ball through a hoop (and in the case of most of them - not very well), so is it so much to ask that they actually look like they care?
In the words of Patches: ‘It’s like watching a bunch of retards trying to fuck a doorknob’
January 23rd, 2010 at 1:35 pm
A really fantastic article. TP not getting any rest is indeed a “headscratcher”. Not using size against the Rockets in the paint, the same. One of our great strengths coming into this season was Tony’s roadrunner abilities. Without that and, seemingly, Tim often alone on interior defense it doesn’t look good for us. Rest TP and let our healthy players step up as they have always have done ( remember our first game against Dallas?).
January 23rd, 2010 at 1:45 pm
I think that it is time to give up the Bogans experiment and start playing Mason. I think this has been a critical failure of Pop’s decision making this year.
January 23rd, 2010 at 2:05 pm
Pop needs to stop being a softer and go back to how he used to be. Mess up on defense = benched and SCREAMED at! I would rather see our “scrubs” out there playing hard and losing, then our starters out there playing soft and losing, which is what they are doing right now.
I know some players in the NBA really only care about their paycheck, but I believe most of them really do want to play. So if some of these guys start getting benched until they get it, it might help.
January 23rd, 2010 at 2:32 pm
As difficult as it is to watch the spurs loose games like those to Huston and Utah, it would be even more difficult if they were loosing to poor teams. When the spurs win they win big. Their point differential is third best in the West. The stat geeks say that this a better indication of success in the playoffs than overall win-loss record. Moreover, it will be a lot more difficult for these teams (Utah and Huston) to beat the spurs in a Seven game series.
That being said, POP should go back and look at his video archive from 2003. RJ is Steven Jackson,
Blair is the Shaq of the MAC, the veterans are the veterans on the Bench, Parker is Parker, Genobli is Genobli from 03, Duncan is well, Duncan and Mahinimi can be an impersonation of the Admiral. This team can win some games, POP should go back to Spurs-ball.
January 23rd, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Great read…Don’t know what to say about this team anymore…have never felt like this about the Spurs. They don’t know who they are and where this journey is taking them to. All I know is that with every game we lose like yesterday and everytime we blow a 15 point lead, I have more doubts about whether we’re going to make it this year or not : become the team everybody imagined when we traded for RJ, signed Dyess and saw Blair put up a double-double in his first NBA game. There simply seems too much work left right now.
Tony needs to sit. I don’t know if it’s Tony who refuses or Pop who doesn’t want to rest him. I guess it’s Pop though and it’s puzzling to me.
January 23rd, 2010 at 3:17 pm
Wanted to add that while thinking about the situation, I realize even more how good this organization has been during the last decade, and how lucky we are that a situation like this is exceptional to us. That’s why now it’s so tough to see our team struggling and not finding the right buttons to push. We simply are a little spoiled. That doesn’t mean we don’t have the right to criticize but we should also realize that the Spurs have continuously been good to us for a very long time.
January 23rd, 2010 at 4:06 pm
IMO, our greatest need is a distributing point guard. parker seems to take a lot of shots nowadays and many of them are jumpers which to his credit has become more reliable, but it is not something you expect going in 80% of the time.
and sadly, i don’t see jefferson doing much better than what he is providing for us now. this system is just wrong for jefferson. jefferson is not much a shooter either and with duncan and blair in the post, there isn’t much room to drive that jefferson is used to/comfortable with.
January 23rd, 2010 at 5:01 pm
How come the one good team the Spurs had to beat were my Lakers? It wasn’t just because Pau was out. The Spurs played great that game.
Just like secretchord, I’ve got PF, and let me tell you, it’s not pretty. Playing defense and driving to the hole are not desired. As an NBA fan, my concern for TP is once he hits his 30s, given his speed driven game and all the playoff games, he many not have anything left.
If the Spurs want to keep contending, you have to let your emotions subside and trade one if not two of the big three. A lot of people say the Celtics should have traded McHale or Parrish while they still had value, but no, Red was too “attached.” Conversely, hard as it was at the time, the Lakers traded Shaq at age 32, which essentially led to getting Bynum, Odom, and Gasol. Without that trade none of those three are on the team. Some will say being loyal is important. The Spurs have proven their loyalty millions of ways (ie, Manu’s salary), not to mention allowing him to play overseas.
Just remember, better to trade a superstar one year too early than one year too late. Shaq was once traded for Odom and Caron Butler. And then it was Shawn Marion. And then it was down to Ben Wallace and salary filler.
Bottom line, are you more of a Spurs fan or a Manu fan? Or Tony or TD for that matter. If trading these guys meant in a few years you would be contending, wouldn’t you do it? Just look at the Lakers.
January 23rd, 2010 at 5:34 pm
Defense, defense, defense. It would be nice if we had some.
January 23rd, 2010 at 5:39 pm
Perhaps the Spurs organization needs to add some fresh faces to its coaching staff and help Pop modify the thick playbook.
January 23rd, 2010 at 5:42 pm
I haven’t given up. And all those jumping ship better not come back should the Spurs reach the Western Conference Finals.
The Spurs just don’t know who they are. I blame POP for still making so many changes. All the other teams have their rotations down, but not the SPURS. The Spurs started getting into a groove when a starting line up seemed to be set. TD,parker, RJ, Bogans and Mcdeezy.
Bonner was stroking it when he went to the bench.
Then POP put Blair in the starting line up. RMJ for whatever reason only comes in now in the 4th when the SPURS are down by 12. Last Night he had HILL and Parker in the starting Line up!!!!!
I believe it started to eff up when Bonner got hurt. The stable line up hit the sh*ts.
Im no coach but, they just need to keep it simple.
Yes, they are putting up enough points to win, but its still sloppy offense. Its easy to get a lead early. They just can’t sustain it.
The Spurs always had two bigs in the middle. TD,Robinson,Nazr,Nestorovic. Put in IAN, man that’s a big body. I’m sure he could have snuffed AB a couple of times.
They always had shooters. Elliot, kerr, Horry.
The Spurs still have shooters. RMJ and Bonner. But they are using them the wrong way. They should just stay behind the 3 point line and wait for a pass. If they cover you oh well, then Manu and TP can get easier lay-ups.
Last night, RMJ and BOnner are two busy running around in the pain doing god knows what. Then it makes it harder for TD, TP and Manu to do what they do. Since the shooter aren’t staying outside, the offense has become predictable. How can Manu be Manu if he is constantly having to penetrate straight into 3 defenders? Same for TP and TD. It’s easy to collapse on these guys when there is no 3 point threat. This offense creates either turnovers or missed shots. Its not easy to play D when you give the opposing team a running start. Also when your shot isn’t going down, its hard to bring intenstiy on the defensive end. It’s just human nature.
Last night Bonner only got ten minutes. Hopefully things settle down when BOnner’s minutes are up.
Yeah I said when Bonner’s minutes are up.
The Big 3 are doing more than enought to win. They need some guys to step up.
January 23rd, 2010 at 8:25 pm
It’s no question to me why TP isn’t getting any time off to heal: Pop’s teaching him a lesson about playing international ball in the summer.
I’m sure Pop gave him a choice - shut it down long term (like Manu last year) or play in pain as though nothing is wrong. If he’s playing he’s expected to contribute and he sure didn’t get that injury in his Spurs uni.
TD did right by the team in the offseason so he gets protected. TP went for his own so he gets punished. It’s pretty simple.
January 23rd, 2010 at 10:19 pm
@junierizzle, no disrespect but wake up man. I know you are a fan, but don’t be delusional. The west finals, I think by now we all realize the spurs won’t make the west finals. Not unless they make some changes to their team.(That doesn’t gurantee anything. I know we all have our opinion, but lets be real here.
January 23rd, 2010 at 10:24 pm
@Laker Fan, I agree with some of your points. I think the spurs are going through the same problems the celtics are facing. When you don’t make moves for the future, of your organization your team will decline. I don’t understand why some teams are loyal to a fault. The spurs probably should have traded ginobli two years ago.
January 25th, 2010 at 6:17 am
[...] is a short addendum to the Rockets/Spurs recap just down the [...]
January 25th, 2010 at 9:32 pm
No defense, no toughness, no intensity,no fighting spirit. A team of too many scorers and not enough defenders.
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