Tuesday, February 9th, 2010...1:14 pm
Closing One Window, Cracking Open Another
Last week we ran a series of features exploring three options for the Spurs: Make no move; make a minor roster move; and make a major roster move. There was supposed to be one more- a post arguing that we should make moves focused on future seasons- that for various reasons was never published. After last night’s game, I felt it was appropriate to finally address the idea.
From where I stand, the situation is clear. It may be hard to stomach, but that does not affect its veracity.
The Spurs are not going to win a title as currently constituted. To some this may seem obvious, to others overly pessimistic. Either way it is clear to me that not a single member of the Spurs is playing at the level necessary to win a title. It takes not one or two, but several very talented players executing at a high level to hoist banners, and there is nothing that currently suggests that critical mass of execution is achievable.
There is not a trade that the Spurs can make that lifts them into contention this season. The problems this team is facing are very deeply entrenched and one, even two significant roster shakeups would not have the dramatic impact necessary to thrust the team back into the league’s top tier. Even if we somehow made a move that undeniably improved the level of talent on our roster, I agree with Gregg Popovich: “We’ve never had a group like this that didn’t gel, as far as being consistent night after night. I think if we change this person for that person, we’d still have the same problem.”
That being said, the Spurs may still be able to win a title during the Tim Duncan era, and can certainly win one in the next five years. But in order for that to happen, they must start making moves that are focused on the future. And not the near future. Their intention needs to be to contend two or three years down the line, not this season or even next.
In other words, I think it is time to start rebuilding.
There are three players that I am unwilling to trade: Tim Duncan, George Hill, and DeJuan Blair. In my opinion everyone else, to differing degrees, is on the table.
Tim Duncan is not on the table because he is the entire franchise and the greatest power forward of all time.
George Hill and DeJuan Blair are not on the table because they are young, cheap, and the only players on the roster that I can confidently say are going to play better next season than this season. A key element of rebuilding is adding young talent, not shipping it off.
Beyond that, anyone is up for discussion. Tony Parker. Manu Ginobili. Definitely Richard Jefferson.
Given the scale of what I am proposing, the trade possibilities are practically endless. So here are some rough guidelines I’d be interested in seeing the front office follow.
I think the goal should be acquiring young, developing players. Players who it is safe to assume have their best seasons still ahead of them. Certainly not anyone who will be thirty or over in two years. If we have to get a slightly older player in order to get a young prospect (For instance, Richard Jefferson for Corey Maggette and Anthony Randolph) that is acceptable, but the focus needs to be on young talent.
We need to commit ourselves to this strategy; any concerns that our team might get worse in the short term need to be thrown out the window. Getting worse now is not the goal- as I’ll explain in a moment I don’t think we should tank purposefully -but if it is a byproduct of a long term move, so be it.
This may sound strange, but the season has gone too well so far to tank. Fifty games into the season the Spurs are eight games over .500. I don’t think there are enough wounds the team could self-inflict that would move us far enough down the ladder to get a meaningful draft pick. If we miss the playoffs and get a lottery pick in the mid-first round, great. If we have a tidy little first round exit at the hands of the Lakers or Mavericks, well, that’s fine too. A brief trip to the postseason this year won’t dramatically affect our ability to rebuild.
We need to reconsider our approach to the draft. We need to stop trading away our draft picks, or at the very least not trade them away lightly. We need to stop drafting and stashing; we need to continue to make picks in the mold of George Hill and DeJuan Blair, picks whose value is clear within the first season or two.
And lastly, we need to be honest about the trade value of the various players on the team.
Richard Jefferson’s trade value is very low, but if it is possible to move him, the Spurs should pull the trigger. As we all know, it may not be possible to move him, at least not without getting bloodied in the process. And we shouldn’t be so anxious to move him that we load ourselves down with an undesirable, long term contract. Jefferson’s contract expires after next season. Worst case scenario: We just let it expire.
I know a few of you will be waiting out back for me with pitchforks when you read this, but here it goes: We need to trade Manu Ginobili. He has not played well enough this year to merit a new contract, and given his trajectory over the last three seasons, there is no reason to believe he will be able to play with any consistency over the coming years. Manu Ginobili has a $10.7 million expiring contract. We need to use that aggressively.
Along with Ginobili, we need to be willing to ship out Roger Mason Jr., Matt Bonner, Michael Finley, Keith Bogans, Theo Ratliff, and Ian Mahinmi in whatever combination brings back the most young talent. If we can attach a few of those to Richard Jefferson in order to make him palatable to other teams, so be it.
As the youngest member of the big three, Tony Parker is the most likely to be a force in the coming seasons, but that does not mean his name should be off the table entirely. Parker is arguably the oldest 27-year-old in the league, having played professional basketball in France before arriving in the NBA and having made several deep playoff runs during his career. If a team is willing to move a young all-star caliber player (Chris Paul, Devin Harris, Danny Granger), I am willing to discuss the idea of using Tony Parker as the centerpiece of such a trade.
For the time being Antonio McDyess is unlikely to be moved, as he has both underachieved this season and his contract does not effectively expire until the end of next season (his contract extends through 2011-12, but the third year is not guaranteed).
Does this mean Tim Duncan will retire with only four rings? I think no matter what we do, that is likely. But for those who say we owe it to Duncan to try to win another title, I think this gives the Spurs the best chance of doing so. Duncan is still an all-star caliber player, one of the best big men in the league. But he used to move mountains; now he is just very good at basketball. I think he can still be the centerpiece of a championship caliber team, but once upon a time he was Atlas- he could carry the world on his shoulders. Those days are no more. If we want to win another title, we will need to surround Duncan with more talent than ever before. The Spurs as currently constructed are not going to get it done.
There is no dignity in dying a slow painful death as a member of the pack. If we aren’t getting better, we are getting worse. It’s time to make some radical changes. The window has closed on this incarnation of the Spurs, but Tim Duncan and the rest of the franchise are in a position to rebound from this disappointing season.
67 Comments
February 9th, 2010 at 1:25 pm
Graydon,
Which of the four camps do you truly stand in?
I’d say the “stand pat” tent is pretty lonely right now, while the “major roster move” tent is starting to get crowded…
The best, most realistic trade I’ve seen is our expiring contracts for Salmons and Thomas. Does that qualify as a “major roster move” if none of the Big 3 are involved?
Anyway, keep up the good work in this, the hardest season I’ve ever experienced as a Spurs fan.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:30 pm
Chris,
This post was written earnestly. This is where I’m at.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:30 pm
If we are talking for the future, we need to discuss how far into the future. Sure we could trade away the talent to have a bunch of draft picks in 2015, but I like supporting a winning team. I especially like supporting a Tim Duncan winning team. If we can make moves to increase the chances of next year or the year after, it’ll be worth it. But I want another Duncan ring, he has brought too much to this team, fans, city, etc. to say thanks for everything but we can’t win, either it be because this team can’t gel or other teams are too good.
Win one for Duncan, just like this team one another ring for Robinson in his last year.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
But on another note, I truly appreciate the writing of this website and the opinions shared.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:39 pm
Wow, I couldn’t have said that better myself! I believe last night’s play was a final ‘Nail in the coffin,’ if you will. To say that Tim Duncan hasn’t been great would be blasphemous.
I agree and disagree with some points. I agree that we should start the rebuilding process in that most of what we have should go if it can bring back young, promising talent.
I disagree with the trade aspect of Manu Ginobli. While his shooting percentages have gone down across the board (except FT’s); I believe that with the influx of new young players, we would need someone with his leadership, work ethic, and play making abilities. Everyone talks about the so-called ‘intangibles’ that he brings to the table, but no one seems to mention his heart(hustle) or work ethic.
If this is the stage that we are going to take; I dont believe that getting rid of Ian Mahinmi would be a great idea. This kid has ridden the pine for almost 3 years, and i would love to see what he could do if given a steady 20 minutes a game for 15 - 20 games.
One point I believe that you missed:
You will have to change the head coach. If you want young new talent to get enough playing time to improve, Popavich has to go. I like Pop and what he has brought to this team, but I believe he would make a better front office manager than coach for an entire new group of young players.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:46 pm
Manu is on my untouchable list (with pitchfork held tightly). With his 3 year trajectory you mentioned we might be able to resign him with a modest contract. I’m also still holding out hope that we can sign Splitter this summer and he can contribute right away. When it comes to the Spurs I always have my rose tinted glasses on.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:49 pm
I agree our roster needs changing. If we can’t find a good trade for Rj this season, maybe wait til next year. A 15 mil expiring contract is some serious eye candy to an owner looking to shed salary.
I love Manu, but I seriously wouldn’t be surprised if he retires from the NBA after this year, but continues playing for his country. If we can get something good for his expiring contract, well we should take it.
I’ll support the Spurs through thick and thin (and complain excessively if we suck), but I’d rather see us win. We should start looking towards the future.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
I say make a “minor roster move”
They need a big body in there just to take up space.
I don’t know why The Spurs never got another token big man after NAZR. Kurt Thomas was perfect but they had to give him up for RJ.
The Spurs have always had a big body in there when they won a championship.
Two bigs and shooters around them.
Their biggest problem is that they haven’t been able to hit wide open threes.
I blame POP for keeping BOGANS in there. BOGANS could have single handedly won some game if he could have hit that shot consistantly.
I really feel BONNERS injury really hurt the flow of the team.
Now that BONNER is finally back and seems to be getting his shot back, POP SITS HIM. He made three against the CLIPS. He made his first against the LAKERS and then we never saw him again. WHY? Because ODOM drove by him a couple of times? So what, he’s not gonna hit those lay ups all night. WE NEED SHOOTERS OUT THERE!!
And why does RMJ only come in in the 4th when the SPURS are down by ten?????????????????
Im no coach but it would be nice to see how the SPURS would look if BONNER and RMJ(the spurs best shooters) were the ones getting the wide open looks that BOGANS and HILL were getting all season.
OH, yeah lets trade MANU, the only guy that looks like he’s trying out there. HE actually looked good last night. But its hard to get to the cup when no team is scared of your shooting and just sits in the paint waiting.
Better shooting could have helped MANU,TP,TD and hell maybe even taken some pressure off of RJ.
POP claims he’s been doing the same thing, but he hasn’t done the same thing all season.
February 9th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
Devin Haris and Lopez for TP.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
I think if we could get our hands on Devin Harris & Brook Lopez for Tony Parker and parts it would be a steal.
Highly unlikely though because of Lopez’s cap friendly contract.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
Uh I could see the Nets possibly trading Harris for TP, or someone else, but Lopez is going nowhere.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Great minds think alike Dos.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Great piece.
I agree with your strategy for building long term - draft well, don’t take on long, burdensome contracts, make shrewd trades, etc.
However, this isn’t exactly a ground breaking strategy - this is what the Spurs have always tried to do (although we definitely could have done things better the past few years). In fact, the teams that get away from this strategy usually end up paying heavily (Knicks, Sixers, etc.).
As a matter of fact, this should always be the strategy, no matter how many games or championships you win.
Call me optimistic to a fault, but even with the struggles we suffered this year (how spoiled are we - 28-20 is “suffering”), I still believe the future is bright for this organization. We have the best front office in the league - they’ll keep us from becoming the doormat of the NBA. They’ll find a way.
Cheers.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
I say the Spurs just go all out for LeBron James this offseason. James does a sign-and-trade in exchange for Jefferson and whatever other contracts are needed to make it work. Just gotta convince James to leave Cleveland. I think Buford can talk Danny Ferry into agreeing to the deal if the alternative is losing James and getting nothing in return. That’s my plan and I’m sticking to it. haha
February 9th, 2010 at 2:30 pm
We all knew this day would come. Sad that it’s come sooner than we thought, but methinks you are right, Graydon. As painful as it feels, I can’t argue with you about Manu, either.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
I’m sorry, but why is everyone so big on Ian? There’s probably a really good reason why he’s been stuck on the bench for 3 years. I think many of us see potential in the unknown, but let’s not kid ourselves.
That being said, I have full confidence that the front office will do the right thing and give us a good chance to win in the future. If it helps at all, Spurs fans, at least we know that this current team has the potential, on any given night, to put on one hell of a show. Right now, for this year, I’m just hoping we get a couple of those games to watch and maybe an exciting playoff series. If we somehow sent the Mavs or Suns home this year in the first round, I’d be happy enough.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:49 pm
We have to do something. I agree that we won’t win another title with the group we have at the moment. To me, we are done for this season and should focus on the future. As I wrote in a post this morning, it’s time to rebuild, just like Graydon says. We have a few right pieces but now we need to throw everything out we don’t need can’t use in the right way. I don’t want to see trades for guys over 30 or just under the 30’s. Basically I agree with everything in this article. It worked exceptionally well from ‘99 - ‘07. But now the time has come for a drastical change.We can’t afford to lose too much of the time Timmey has left. We desperately need hope for the future. At the moment we are one of only few teams that can’t say that better times are probably ahead with the actual roster.
February 9th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
I heard D.J augustin is on the trading block, any chance we can get into those talks. the talk is big baby for Augustin. Maybe we could use bonner and draft picks. I would love to see him playing for us.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:08 pm
And to think… without Jefferson, we actually had space to sign a guy like Bosh who wants to win and loves Texas.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:16 pm
Graydon,
Excellent, excellent piece. I couldn’t agree more with this article. I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks that this team is finished. On a positive note, it still is possible for Timmy to get one for the thumb, but it may take a year or two. I agree that we need to restock on good young players and we should start NOW by trading Manu. The guy has busted his ass to make it work, but it’s clear to see his dynamic days are over.
As I said early today, Jefferson could be next years Tracy McGrady with his $15million expiring contract. If we could move him in the summer or early next year for a couple of good pieces, it would put us miles down the road. Tony is the one chip that could net us a BIGTIME baller. I would love for us to package him for a big (Al Jefferson) or a great wing (Danny Granger). It’s been a great run gang, but if we play our cards right we could set ourselves up nicely for several more years to come.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
The only reason the Spurs aren’t great this year is because Parker has been playing hurt. The Spurs have the efficiency differential of a 50-55 win team. Take away the injury to Parker (and his significant lost productivity compared to last season), and they would be on pace to win 60-65 games. If Parker gets healthy, the Spurs are statistically as strong as the Cavs, Lakers, Celtics, and Magic- all because of Blair’s play. I really want the Jefferson/Maggette trade to happen. Maggette’s just a better fit at the 3, and Jefferson is just terrible at small ball 4. If they can pry Randolph of Wright from the Warriors in the trade, I’d just cry with joy.
Another trade that would add 5 years to the championship window would be Iguodala/Dalembert for Jefferson/McDyess/expirings. Adding a swap of Parker for Lou Williams/#1 pick would make the contracts match and keep from gutting the roster too much. Dalembert’s shot blocking in the middle would fix the defense immediately, Iggy is a gigantic upgrade, and Lou Williams is a downgrade from Parker and could come off the bench behind Hill for a while, but he costs 2/5 of what Parker does and produces more value for the money. John Wall with the #1 anyone? I can dream………
February 9th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
I have been nothing but positive around the spurs campfire up until this point in the season. I have preached patience, fiscal responsibility and an implicit trust in the front office.
Then I watched us succumb to the lakers. The stumbling on D, the poor shooting, the lack of cohesion, the continued fall into irrelevance of the Artist formerly known as Richard. It undermined my position of moral fortitude. It was such a gaping, horrible open wound of a loss, that it left me floundering on the coat tails of knee jerk one game trade junkies. It is the final straw on the dromedaries back.
So lets make a deal. I am all in. Hook line and sinker sold. I am wearing a dashing hat with feather in, a parrot on my left shoulder, ready to embark on the good ship rebuild and go searching for buried treasure with a pirate crew, while we still have the assets to make something happen.
The only thing I can cling to, in constance, is that I still have implicit trust in the spurs front office. I don’t blame them for the nightmare that Prince Peanut has become. It was a bold move, it bought in a player that at the time was just the tonic for our ills (at least on paper) and I was all over the thing in terms of support and joy.
So don’t send away Dejaun (having someone the same size as Ron Artest on the floor made me feel warm and fuzzy), keep a hold of George, Touch Timmy at your Peril, and unless it means getting rid of an awful lot of trouble and bringing back an incredible lot of good leave the Frenchman where he is.
For my money the rest of the spurs are Grist for the mill.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:29 pm
Here’s what the Spurs should do to have the best chance winning the next few years:
1. Sign Splitter
2. Extend Manu
3. Trade RJ and Mason
4. Keep Tony, George and Dejuan
RJ’s expiring contract will be attractive next year, especially with the uncertainty of the new CBA looming. The Spurs won’t get value back but need to put this mistake behind them. Mason has trade value but can’t get minutes here. Package other role players to get a defensive-minded SF who can shoot the 3. Someone in the Artest, Battier, Ariza, Sefalosha, etc. mold. What we hoped to get with RJ.
Starters:
Parker
Hill
New SF
Duncan
Splitter
Bench:
Manu
Blair
Other role players
Try to keep as many current role players as possible to preserve corporate knowledge. Maybe even bring some prior Spurs back. Two new starters will be plenty to integrate.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
OOOOH!!!
Minnesota could be just what the doctor ordered. Parker/Jefferson/Splitter/Mahinmi/#1/Kitchen Sink for Expirings/Love/Sessions/Rubio. This gives us a gigantic young talent at the 4, a lateral move at the 1 for this season (come on, Parker’s hurt after all), the best player in the world not in the NBA, and $20M in cap space for free agency. We could literally take a player like Iguodala for NOTHING but cap relief.
I don’t think Minnesota says no to this deal. Rubio is going to be worthless to them in two years, this is their chance to get some more talent on their team and start really rebuilding.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:43 pm
If I were RC or Pop, here’s what I’d do now.
RJ and Manu
for
Igoudala and Dalembert
The salaries match up PERFECTLY. The Spurs would get a much needed shot blocking big and a great young player in Iggy. Both are well under 30 yrs old. The 76ers get $11million cap relief this year and $15mil next year. They could even trade Jefferson next year for someone else if they like. The Spurs could throw in a pick to grease the wheels if need be. This would definitely shore up some of the Spurs problems. We could just play out the rest of the year to build chemistry.
February 9th, 2010 at 4:10 pm
Great article. The truth hurts.
I still think we need to play ian and some of the other young guys more.
I’d rather lose with the young guys on our roster than lose with the old guys. Right now we cannot win with the old guys, so let’s face reality and move forward.
If nothing else, losing with Ian M makes Ian M a more valuable trade chip. Need I revisit the pain of having Scola playing well for our in-state rivals in order to make this point?
February 9th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
” If a team is willing to move a young all-star caliber player (Chris Paul, Devin Harris, Danny Granger), I am willing to discuss the idea of using Tony Parker as the centerpiece of such a trade.”
Good luck with that.
CP3? New Orleans might as well fold if they move he for anyone other than LeBron.
Danny Granger? Indiana is building their organization around him (fragile as he is).
February 9th, 2010 at 4:22 pm
A couple of words on the Lakers game: true, the Spurs didn’t play well, but don’t underestimate the Kobe-less, Bynum-less Lakers.
A few years ago, Gasol drove a Grizzlies team with starters like Chucky Atkins, Lorenzen Wright, a washed up Eddie Jones and Battier to 49 wins and the playoffs. He’s really good. Get him some reasonably decent teammates (like Odom and Artest, for example) and you can have a playoff caliber team. Play them on the road and if you have a bad night, this can happen.
February 9th, 2010 at 4:24 pm
Gargalen,
There have been plenty of reports over the last two years that Paul is frustrated with the NOLA ownership and is interested in being traded. It is possible.
And Granger was just an idea- given that he is underachieving this season, there’s an off chance he could be poached.
February 9th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
my contention for trading the rest of the team is who is going to take parker and jefferson?
parker is not a pass-first point guard, he doesn’t shoot the ball that well and doesn’t have much range and his whole game is based on speed which is sure to go in the near future.
jefferson was an interesting piece when he was for the bucks, but now? i can’t see ANY team trading for him unless Dunleavy Senior pulls something or Isiah Thomas gets a GM job again.
We have a better chance at free-agency than trading, but again, since SA is a small-market city and franchise, it seems we are only going to be able to sign the twilight players such as McDyess. Do you honestly see a young player signing with the Spurs? Not likely.
February 9th, 2010 at 5:31 pm
This is exactly what I wrote two days ago. I agree entirely. Time to go for youth and athleticism and catch up with the NBA - it changed 2 years ago, and we didn’t.
February 9th, 2010 at 5:35 pm
Pass on Ginobili trade, I’d rather trade Duncan, I mean how much could Ginobili possibly warrant in the open market? How could we get someone that good for even close to the price?
February 9th, 2010 at 6:07 pm
In terms of getting maximum value for what we have, I wouldn’t trade either Manu or Tony until the summer. At this point, Tony is hurt and is at his nadir in terms of trade value. If the FO decides to blow up the team, we should shut him down for a month to let him heal a bit and then bring him back at the end of the season to showcase what a healthy Tony still brings to the table.
Regarding Manu, I can’t see any other team giving up much of value right now. The only teams that would want him right now are either teams looking to cut salary who don’t value what he can still do on the court, or teams who value his game but would therefore want him locked in for at least another season or two if they were to give up anything of value in return. If we wait until the summer, we open up the possibility of sign-and-trades for Manu so that he gets paid more than he might on the open market and we get a decent young prospect in return. If no one is interested in a sign-and-trade, then we either save the cap space for future trades/signings or we have a chance to resign him at a steep discount.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:08 pm
the spurs will never trade duncan. that’s not even a thought for the FO.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
If rebuilding now is the only recourse after losing to Denver, Portland and LA with out their main studs then the front office should agressively seek to move everyone on the roster not named Timmy and Manu. If trading Blair and Hill brought back young talent like Milsap or Monte then they should be on the table as well.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
Tony is not a bad shooter at all.
He is a bad three point shooter.
However his long range top of the key area has come on in leaps and bounds because he has an excellent work ethic and applies himself to the cause.
He shoots 50% plus with regularity which is a very good number for a PG.
TP is a very tradeable asset.
RJ of course is the new Jon Koncak.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
Just to point out also he takes an average of one three per 50 odd minutes of actual gametime, and most of those are final no other option plays.
He has very good shot selection.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
On Duncan: If we start trading the other major pieces of this team, who is to say that Timmy wants to stay on for a rebuild? He may not be as optimistic about how many more years he can play at a high level as we are — maybe his knees hurt a lot more than he’s letting on and he has no intention of playing beyond the 2+ years left on his current contract.
If the FO wants to rebuild, they should have a long conversation with Timmy before they even start talking to other teams about deals for the rest of the core. If he doesn’t want to stay, we might be best served by very quietly working a deal for him as the first step in a complete rebuild. He’s the only guy on the roster who could command multiple 1st round picks, and once we tip our hand that we’re rebuilding, the offers we get from other GMs for the guys we have left will be far less than what they would be otherwise.
February 9th, 2010 at 7:02 pm
Damn. This is a difficult post to read. I hope you’re wrong.
February 9th, 2010 at 7:56 pm
Last night’s loss was difficult because we keep on hoping they will turn the corner and string together some big, key wins. It just hasn’t happened yet.
The entire problem is RJ, but it’s more than his awful performance on the court. He has become a cancer on their confidence. Pop is flustered and the FO is probably in shock. The team, the whole organization actually, just can’t get their head around how this happened.
I’ve said it before, Jason Kidd opting not to come here as a free agent years ago scarred this team. Champions with a good friend and superstar (Duncan) and they couldn’t convince him to come, made it clear that SA would have problems attracting any high profile players.
That’s why they opted to go for broke and use the space they may have had for the RJ trade, thus his play is doubly troubling sort of speak.
The only way this team gets back is taking a toxic or expensive contract in return for RJ. This may work out for the Spurs as any deal that’s long in years but come with talent and youth (Iguodala comes to mind) - would essentially be like signing a free agent.
I believe the only deal that can save this franchise and keep them relevant is any deal for Iguodala/Dalembert. In this economy don’t discount what those five years left on Iguodala’s deal means to Philly.
Philly is probably hoping to get more cap relief (McGrady) or talent (Amare), but if they don’t get that, I think the Spurs should pounce.
Lastly - there is no way I’d trade Manu. His skills and knowledge will help with new players. The truth we should accept with him is that he’s going to have to play less minutes and with a much smaller contract. He is still effective in very important spurts.
Sure I can see the FO thinking about moving him but I can honestly tell you that I can’t see Timmy signing off on any such deal. These guys have too much history and have been through too many wars together.
TP on the other hand is an asset that they should consider (the key word being “consider”) moving this summer. Plenty of speed and talent and still young enough to get great value back. They went all in on RJ and he’s been a colossal bust. They have to be careful with any future trades.
February 9th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
A quick note.
To all the Don’t trade Manu people.
We may not have a choice in the matter.
February 9th, 2010 at 8:51 pm
I completely agree. Time to start looking to the future.
February 9th, 2010 at 9:05 pm
Bushka, you’re right. There’s no guarantee that he stays with us this summer and I don’t see the FO getting into a bidding war for him. If he walks this summer we will have screwed ourselves bigtime. Time to cash in and hopefully get some younger talent for him.
February 9th, 2010 at 9:11 pm
Unless we can get a wonderful deal for Jefferson, we keep him. Sure, at his current production, he’s not worth his salary, but his contract will be over after next season. Trading him for someone with a long, expensive contract probably wouldn’t be wise.
As far as Tony goes, he’s an excellent value when not injured. The way Tony has improved his game every year makes me think he’ll be a very effective PG for at least another 5 years. He just happens to be hobbled right now. I bet the Spurs will have loooong talks, in private, with their foreign players about playing during the summer. Dirk was denied the opportunity to play for the German team this year by Mark Cuban, and he’s killing right now.
Oh, and Timmy? He’s not going anywhere. He’ll pull a Robinson and mentor Splitter for a few more years, then ride off into San Antonio lore for all of eternity.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:09 pm
Graydon!
What has happened?! One day it’s all happy title-contention and optimism. Then you go away to school and out of nowhere we hear: rebuild.
This post hit me like a semi-truck. I’m still in denial. For whose team does the bell toll?
Please tell me it is just graduate school stress, and it will all end with the semester in time for playoffs.
February 10th, 2010 at 12:11 am
Blair may be the Spurs’ best trading chip right now. Everyone around the league is impressed with his performance and high energy, and someone wanting to win now would be willing to take a risk on his knees. What scares me about him is that he and his agent were so willing to take a four year deal (with the last two years being a team option) at about 4 million, or 1 mil/year. If they were convinced that his knees would hold up they’d probably want much more money, given his talent level- and that makes me think that holding on to him in a rebuilding phase is not necessarily a good idea. I really like the guy, but looking at the situation objectively, I would trade him straight up for someone like Mbah a Moute right now.
February 10th, 2010 at 1:00 am
Hey AP.
I think the loss to Los Angeles was a very clear message.
I’ve been overwhelmingly positive the past few weeks in the face of a lot of pessimism. But the guys looked so disjointed and clearly outclassed. It was an absolute gut check for me personally.
The chemistry is not there. The D is listless and a step late, and the offense is uninspired. R.J is absolutely lost.
I tell you what if they get it together from here it will be an absolute fairytale.
February 10th, 2010 at 2:26 am
(Damn, it seems that stupid pitchfork simply disappears everytime you need it… Where did I left it?!?)
February 10th, 2010 at 4:25 am
Don’t trade Manu. Let him play 38 minutes for 10 straight games.
And let Tim play 40 minutes for 10 straight games.
February 10th, 2010 at 4:27 am
don’t trade manu; let him play 35 minutes ten straight games.
If you want to win a championship during Tim’s era, let him play 40 minutes ten straights games.
February 10th, 2010 at 4:27 am
don’t trade manu; let him play 35 minutes ten straight games.
If you want to win a championship during Tim’s era, let him play 40 minutes ten straights games.
February 10th, 2010 at 5:08 am
I agree with the plan. Draft picks would be ideal as well. However to add another thing, with this approach, having Pop as coach seems to be counter intuitive as he can’t develop young players. He should move into the FO so he can focus on being in Europe and Avery takes over the team. We all know he’s the chosen successor. Might as well keep going forward. No reason to go half way.
February 10th, 2010 at 7:31 am
Where is TIAGO SPLITTER in this discussion????? Is he not a young up and coming as well?
February 10th, 2010 at 9:56 am
Since when does Pop not develop young players? George Hill, Dejaun Blair, Tony Parker….these are all guys that have flourished under Pop.
Maybe the problem isn’t Pop or the staff. As someone else touhed on, maybe the young guys don’t get burn b/c they aren’t good enough? I trust that the staff, after having seen them in practice more than any of us, know which young guys it can trust putting on the court. For as much as we all want Ian to succeed, with the exception of one decent game (against what could go down as the worst team of all time), he really hasn’t shown much besides athleticism, a few blocks, and a propensity to foul at a high rate.
I root for Ian as much as anyone, but he needs to show a lot more before he can be counted on.
February 10th, 2010 at 2:41 pm
been a spurs fan all my life, im 22, and this year has been the hardest to watch. ive come to a simple conclusion. we dont have a “franchise” player anymore. Duncan’s decreasing lateral movement and stamina combined with the ginobili’s decreasing speed and accuracy has robbed us of the two players that could dominate 4th quarters. We’ve become the mediocre 1997 spurs team, the year before they drafted Tim.
Do i think we can still get duncan one last ring? yes, but we cant depend on missing the playoffs and getting lucky in the lottery and correctly drafting an nba ready franchise player.
Sorry, we have to make a ground shattering trade, where we give up a lot to get a true franchise player (Chris Bosh) to partner up with TD inside. Then we may have a opportunity in TD’s last year to get anywhere. Then even if we fail, we atleast have someone to carry the franchise for another 6 years.
February 10th, 2010 at 3:14 pm
First of all, id like to say im tired of anyone saying that we cant trade blair or hill. From where im standing, the best they will ever be is great role-players. I would trade 3 great role players to get a franchise player in return. Their is no point in role players if they dont have dominate player to compliment, and due to age, the spurs dont have a “franchise” player that will lead them into the next decade.
This is painful to admit cause i love Blair, but he is too short to be a good defender in this league. Even when he helped in time as the weakside defender, he was too small to change Odom, or Gasol’s shot against the lakers. Im sure the result would be the same with Bynum. He will always be a liability inside against elite teams.
On the other hand, George Hill has a suspect shot and doesnt create for others enough. I also believe he’s turning into a volume shooter, which i dont think benefits the team’s field goal percentage.
February 10th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
It’s time for Popovich and Buford to admit that the Richard Jefferson trade was a mistake. But who is going to want his contract, as big as it is? Jefferson needs to be sat to see if that sparks a fire in his butt. And fans should be realistic. Yes, I believe they can get into the playoffs. Do I think they can take the title this year? Not unless some serious “gel”ing happens and soon. Do I think they can beat the Nuggets on Thursday? No. They don’t have the mettle at this point. There are still 32 games left in the season, and with that much time (that seem so little) Popovich needs to seriously reconsider some of the strategies he has used (the many different starting lineups, going small, etc.). He also needs to admit his mistake in trusting Jefferson, and bench him, starting DeJuan Blair instead. He’s already proven his worth in my mind. The season is not a total wash. Not yet. The next 10 to 15 games should tell. I think they are title contenders. Still. Just call me die hard, but I still think 2010 is the year of the Spurs. GO SPURS GO!!!!!!
February 10th, 2010 at 3:43 pm
yep. this season is in the crapper. if things continue to look considerably worse as the weeks go on, a trade is in order.
i don’t think we should include ianny in a trade. his contract expires this season and if this one clearly goes to the dogs, we should deactivate ratliff or trade some pieces to give him a roster spot. he may be able to overcome his foul woes if he was given some minutes to gain experience. chuck was calling for an athletic big to help timmy. we may have one in a suit that has been in the spurs system for a few years now that has never seen extended time.
this would also be a good chance to get a look at malik hairston. he has been blowing up the d-league for two season, which at least means he can be a serviceable player in the nba. he may help our slow-legged, unathletic back cour to some degree.
manu is the most ideal trade option, but tony’s future looks disapointing. he will continually play overseas ball for the rest of his career and we are going to have to endure sprain after sprain as long as he is a spur. maybe the nba will start moving away from signing foreign superstars for this matter.
if we could dump bonner, mason, finley, and ratliff, we will at least get a look at some of the prospects that we currently have. i would rather see malik and ian get some minutes than watching our old, slow, underperforming players continue to be disapointing. at least we will know that we are rebuilding
blog, spur fan, blog, even though your heart is breaking
February 10th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
WE NEED TO TRADE FOR CHRIS BOSH! no matter how much we give up. why? because we need a franchise player, we need a dominate weak side defender and rebounder to compliment Duncan (which will help us regain our defensive mentality)and because we dont have a future at the moment. But here’s the best realistic scenerio i can think of only based on the hope Toronto will trade him due to their inability to resign him.
First of all i considered trading Tony Parker, but the reality is they wouldnt want him. They would have too much money stuck at the PG position with Calderon making 8 million and rising for 4 years. And there is no way the Spurs eat that contract in order to sweeten that trade.
Second, if we get Chris Bosh, we must give them a 4 or a 5 with real potential.
NOTE: We will lose on the short run on this trade but we will have a greater shot at a successful future. (heck we are already losing in the short run so who cares.)
Now the trade: Chris Bosh, Antoine Wright for George Hill, Dejuan Blair, Richard Jefferson and the draft rights to Tiago Splitter.
Toronto gets the promise of a bright future with Tiago as the defensive and rebounding ace. Bargnani at the 4. They have Hedo at the 3 for five years. Derozan will be at the 2 and Hill at the running the point. Not only that but they will get financial relief when Jefferson’s contract ends next year.
The Spurs on the other hand will have a dominant small (tony) and a dominant big (Bosh) for the next 6 years. As far a getting Tim one last ring. Hoping that the Spurs resign Ginobili at 7 million per for 3 years, will have a starting lineup with TP, Ginobili, Duncan and Chris Bosh. I trust the FO can rebuild around them with draft picks and trades for the next decade.
February 10th, 2010 at 6:05 pm
“blog, spur fan, blog, even though your heart is breaking” rj
Where do I start… what going on its clearly a mess. though I will like to think that next season will better without any changes but its just a fantasy. R.C. and Pop probably just wake up from their day dreaming and next thing we know it too late.
I am confuse and torn, hate to see separation of the Big 3.
February 10th, 2010 at 10:03 pm
@ Rye
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/09/28/the-return-of-spurs-basketball/
Ummmmm…I told you so?
I was writing about this stuff on September 29, 2009.
Sad…
I like the Iggy/Dalembert trade idea.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:18 am
About Blair’s height, I’d just like every one to remember that teams thought Ben Wallace was too short to be an effective pf/c. I remember Wallace saying that the Wizards saw him as a tall shooting guard, or some such thing. Blair is only 2 inches shorter than Wallace.
Lets not forget Charles Barkley was a short guy and yet he could defend, he was also great at getting rebounds.
I’m just saying, being 6′7 isn’t too short to defend, especially when you have a wing span like Blair does, which I recall either Tim or Graydon pointing out when we drafted him.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:06 am
Guys,
This my first time to post a comment/s. Being a spurs fan, it’s really sad on knowing that this is one the franchise’s worst season standing. The big 3 are very important to those young players and still capable on winning another champoinship. As I viewed the replay/s, the weak sides are mostly; 1) outrebounded, 2) weak defense, 3) low percentage on 2 and 3 points made, 4) less aggressive and energy, 5) lower free throw percentage compare to high caliber teams and 6) the big three are too exhausted to compete with those young talented guys because so, that Hill, Blair, Jefferson and the rest must provide each own blast attack.
To coach Pop, I trust u well, please trained Bonner, mahinmi, finley and mason jr more on defense, not only long range shooting. To Jefferson, you need to improve your defense and aggressiveness. To the supporting casts, keep on improving. Please help the big 3….. The play off is nearer…. Don’t waste another season, as time goes by, we become older, take care of your kness….
Good Luck guys. Be positive. We your fans all over the world will keep cheering on your every ball game.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:45 pm
in reference to Blair’s height compared to Barkley and Ben Wallace, there is one major difference. Blair’s vertical is not very good. Barkley could play above the rim, crazy athlete. Wallace could get up in his prime. Blair, not so much, i dont think he has any hang time so his long arms are rendered useless..
February 15th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
[...] is to wait until Jefferson and Parker’s contracts expire and rebuild after next season as my colleague suggested, but holding onto assets too long can leave teams with nothing to show for them, as ESPN’s [...]
February 16th, 2010 at 7:17 am
[...] either end, as we all thought he would be at this stage of his career. And that’s one reason some really smart Spurs fans have called for the team to raise the white flag this [...]
February 18th, 2010 at 7:30 pm
It’s interesting to see how many fans on here are so quick to dismiss this player and that player when they’ve been on the team for 1/2 a season. RJ was good at the 2 teams he played for before (his average was about 16-18 pts per game during his 7 years w/ the NJN and 20 ppg last year w/ the Bucks) but all of the sudden it’s 12.2 ppg. Why do you think that is? Did he suddenly get worse at playing basketball? Perhaps it’s the system, or the style of coaching or the players around him. RJ isn’t the problem, it’s the adjustment that he’s being asked to make. I’m not saying he should be kept, I just think people need to be more patient - a different style of ball (uptempo) would support his game better.
TD is a treasure but I doubt seriously he will get another ring. Dallas just improved drastically, Denver has better, younger talent and Kobe and Co. are the best team in the league and (barring utter catastrophe) will probably remain so for another few years.
The trade deadline has passed w/ us making a simple offload of Theus. Is another late pick next year really gonna help us? If the Spurs really want to win NEXT year, we need Bosh, Amare, Wade or someone of that caliber (even then, the Lakers will be a challenge). And that’s going to have to be just signing a guy to a max contract - do we have the payroll to do that? Hardly. As such, some players gotta go.
Ginobli’s contract is up this year. Although I love the guy for what’s he’s meant to us in the past, the time has come to part ways. McDyess should be gone - buyout. Mahimi isn’t worth the roster slot …3 years and he still hasn’t played well enough to break into the rotation yet.
The future of this team should be Blair, Jefferson, TD (for the next 2 yrs), Mason Jr. (nobody shoots as well as he does), Hill, Parker, in that order. Everyone else should be kept around only for least amount acceptable. Let’s start restructing some contracts (staring w/ RJs) and get the next franchise player in here. Bosh, Stoudamire, D Wade then Joe Johnson, in that order.
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