Wednesday, February 10th, 2010...7:03 am
On Chemistry and Shooting
Much of the concern over San Antonio’s recent play comes down to the vague and unquantifiable designation of “poor chemistry.” It’s true, and anyone who has watched the team this year would say so.
Something to note is that the Spurs, though an improved offensive team, have had more than a few ugly bouts of poor shooting this season. Manu Ginobili, as one example, is shooting career lows. Some of his numbers have dropped 10 and 15 percent. That hurts a team like the Spurs-who depend on hitting open shots-more than we imagine.
Putting these two things together, I was reminded of a bit of reflection from Wayne Winston. I’ll leave it to you to think through the implications.
When [Joakim] Noah and [Tyrus] Thomas were on the court, they lost by ten points a game. I mean, they sucked.
Here’s my theory on that, because the Mavericks had the same problem. We look at every lineup, we know how good the players were [note: Winston is talking about his own adjusted +/- ratings, which he says are somewhat similar to what’s on basketballvalue.com]. So you talk about chemistry. Chemistry means the lineup played better than what you’d expect from the players. Negative chemistry means they play worse. The holy grail, which I need to work on, and I’m not sure it’s obtainable … is to figure out what characterizes the lineups that tend to play better, and what characterizes the lineups that play worse.
My theory on the lineups that play worse is that they have two guys who can’t hit the broad side of a barn. Like, Noah and Thomas, their effective field goal percentage is like 30 percent. Dampier and George, those two have no jump shot. I’m not positive, this would take a lot of statistical analysis, but I think that’s what we’re seeing. That’s the key.
12 Comments
February 10th, 2010 at 9:04 am
What about Jefferson’s broken shot? It looks like he’s shooting a medicine ball blindfolded. I’ve heard coach Engelland has tried to help him, but everytime he’s starts speaking with him, Jefferson just wets his pants and blacks out. At least Manu is trying to work on his shooting.
February 10th, 2010 at 9:26 am
The theory on “shooting lineups” is only a small portion of the problem.
The name of the game is matchups. I dont care if Noah shoots 1%. Hes not in the game for shooting 70% from the floor and scoring 20 a game.
And why the F would I run plays to him anyway? But thats a PG problem. The point is, Noah is in the game, like Rodman, to defend and rebound. If he scores a few, thats a bonus. But his job is to DEFEND, limit second shots, and gain second shots for his team. If he holds his man to 1 pt, and he scores 2. He wins the matchup.
This has been the problem with a majority of our players. Sure they might not be shooting well, SYSTEM (push the ball and run), but it wouldnt be so bad if we could limit the opponents scoring. We cant because we dont have: wing players capable of growing a pair and working hard on the defensive end, or a dominant defensive big as in past years.
The same reason we lost last years playoff (dead horse) was no stops and bucket trades. TP scored 40 but he also let subs get a lot of those back with pts/assists/penetration.
February 10th, 2010 at 10:54 am
I doubt that Manu is the source of any problems the Spurs offense might have, but Winston’s point is good.
When you have two guys who have no jump shot whatsoever out there, your spacing suffers and you are giving a big advantage to the opposition. They can keep their bigs in the paint at all times without problems (in the case of Thomas/Noah, for example) and force the other team to shoot jumpers all game.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:07 am
Manu’s struggles from the field are due to the fact that he can’t create off the dribble like he use to and has become much more of a spot up shooter.
He just doesn’t have the burst to get the rim and finish anymore. Nobody likes the idea of trading a player who plays with as much heart and has given this franchise and it’s fans so much but he’s a declining asset that you may actually bring value in return.
I would not be surprised in the least if Ginobili is no longer a Spur after the trade deadline especially considering his contract situation.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:10 am
The Spurs’ standard of excellence the past decade is dissolving
Signs of their apocalypse are everywhere, most notably through their 3-14 record against the seven other Western Conference teams currently in playoff position. After compiling the NBA’s best road record over the past decade, they are under .500 (10-11) away from home this season and face an NBA-high 20 more road contests.
Spurs magic from past seasons. Synergy, swagger, chemistry, execution …..whatever it is, the Spurs have yet to find it this season.
By the numbers, the Spurs are among the league’s top 10 in both offensive (eighth) and defensive (10th) efficiency. lowest projected 50 game record — is 33-16 with this current roster, five wins better than their actual standing. That means San Antonio is either very unlucky or failing at enough crucial, game-altering moments: The interior rotation is a split-second too late to deter an opponent’s drive to the hoop; the wide-open three-pointer on the kick-out pass to the corner rims out.
This year, San Antonio is plus-3 points in average first-quarter margin, the third-best total in the league, and plus-1.1 points in the second quarter (No. 8 in the NBA). But in the second half the Spurs barely break even, registering a net zero in third-quarter scoring margin (15th in the league), and then edging their foes by plus-0.4 points in the fourth quarter (13th). The thrilling comebacks of the vintage Spurs are much less common.
They look older and slower now, their undersized frontcourt beside Duncan Antonio McDyess and rookie DeJuan Blair inadequate in defending the paint. They have to defeat Utah, Denver, the Lakers and the East-leading Cavaliers, each time without home-court advantage, to win a championship. With a brutal road schedule still to come, and a mere two-game cushion over the current ninth seed, it’s more likely the Spurs will miss the postseason altogether.
You can’t discount a team that has Duncan, Ginobili, Parker and Popovich, but the Spurs are not the title contenders we all imagined them to be on opening day. Sooner or later it might be time for Popovich to give Roger Mason, last year’s clutch-shooting guard, the minutes now taken up by Jefferson and George Hill. GO SPURS!! GO
February 10th, 2010 at 12:25 pm
It’s funny to see this article NOW.
Im not the only one that has been saying the Spurs need better shooters.
I just find it odd that they know shots aren’t going down and yet POP refuses to put in RMJ and BONNER.
I honestly wouldn’t be so pissed if RMJ and BONNER were the ones missing all those wide open 3s. Becasue at least they are losing with the best players.
How many wide open 3s have BOGANS and HILL missed???????
February 10th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
I see manu struggling to get teammates involved, creating chemistry as nodoby else in the team. He is creating more oportunities than ever for open shots, that everybody are just missing. But if decides to play alone, attacking the rim, there wouldn’t be ball movement at all (you can’t expect tony to do that, he is not that). On the other side, if you want manu numbrers to rise, you just have to make
Manu and Tim play more minutes together. Tim is the only one who can make easier for manu to penetrate, or find open shots for him.)
I’m affraid that nobody, besides manu, can make the spurs play as a team.
February 10th, 2010 at 7:09 pm
I think everyone here makes valid points to some degree. Does anyone else notice that only Manu has the guts to pass the ball to Tim & Blair when they slip the screen to the basket. I realize he has committed more than his share of T.O.s, but Hoe many times have you seen DeJuan, Tim, or McDyess standing alone near the basket with open arms to a ball that never comes.
This team’s parimeter players not only lack confidence in their shot, but lack confidence in their teamates ability to finish. I believe in Roger Mason, because he believes in himself — umm, his shot. This team is too mentally fragile, that’s why they build big leads then blow them.
February 10th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
The Spurs had a winning record last year against 1 of the 7 playoff teams; they swept Utah 3 - 0. This year Utah embarrassed the Spurs blowing them out 3 - 0.
I am glad to see someone agrees with the article I wrote 3 days ago: the Spurs will likely not win 53 games and they will not make the playoffs for only the second time in the last 21 years.
You may review my article at bleacherreport.com “Why San Antonio Spurs will not Make the 2010 Western Conference Playoffs.”
February 11th, 2010 at 2:17 am
Shooting is way more important than matchups.
If you have two guys that can’t shoot on the floor at once you can help off them constantly.
Hence why there is always a spot for shooters in this league.
Teams also go nuts for matchups and often play themselves out of games with it. How often do players just go and go and go at one guy they perceive is a “weak” link and not actually get anywhere.
Don’t forget Timmy can hit from mid range quiet confidently. If he couldn’t do that and we played him and a guy like Thomas together how the hell do we create spacing, how do we create lanes for anyone?
I agree with Winston on this one wholeheartedly I remember reading the article when he did that truehoop lecture series and thinking THATS IT! Thats one of the reasons the spurs don’t suck even though everyones injured, because you have shooters everywhere.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:07 am
SAS - I noticed your point about “crucial” times in the game. That has been our MO the past two years (at least) blowing 4th qtr leads. And anyone who has read a rant of mine knows how much I like to bring up TPs CRUCIAL TOS during last years playoffs.
TOs are never what you want, but sometimes turning the ball over can help you learn what to do the next trip down. Other times TOs are extremely bad because they are MOMENTUM changers. TP has a knack, along with some other guys, for knowing exactly when we DONT NEED a TO and then turn it over.
And yes, we all know that the players this year have an athletic FC or Dominant Big. So Why McDyess? Never once understood this.
I dont think RMJ should be in the game taking minutes away from Hill. Maybe Jefferson, but not Hill. We need George to develop as much as possible. Another thing I hate about POP. Hill could have gotten a lot of these “rookie” mistakes out last year, had POP gave him time. For some reason he continued to play Finley and Bonner. Great Payoff.
Bonner should never be in the game. Ever.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
Finley against the lakers was tough to watch. The guys got no movement left, just let him go.
Bonner for whatever reason when he plays well is part of some of the best spurs lineups statistically speaking. Again he gives effort on both ends it’s just the whole red headed white guy prejudice thing we have going on. His shot may look awkward but when he is on song stretching the floor for Tim & Tony he is an asset to the team. Obviously not for 30 minutes a game though.
McDyess was good vs the lakers on the boards and played solid D, this doesn’t fall on his shoulders, it’s not like he was hired onboard to guard Lamar Odom.
@Trade TP you are right on about RMJ taking minutes from jefferson. That would be positive at present.
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