Thursday, March 4th, 2010...7:40 am
Blair as Oberto
Back on December 4, I wrote the following,
Offensively, he [Blair] has the best in-air balance of anyone on the team not named Tony Parker. Blair is a case study of how to properly transform hard contact into shooting space. And his understanding of space is remarkable for such a young player. Strangely enough, Blair reminds me of Fabricio Oberto in his uncanny ability to move into empty space around the hoop and dutifully present himself to the passer. This helps explain why Blair and Ginobili play so well together. DeJuan is practically Argentinean.
In this morning’s Express-News, Jeff McDonald and Manu Ginobili pick up the same conversation.
“I played with Fabri for over 10 years,” said Ginobili, who first met Oberto when they were teenagers in Argentina. “He knew exactly how I wanted the screens. He had a passion for setting screens like I’ve never seen.
…Blair and Ginobili are only in the courtship phase of their relationship, but they pick and roll like an old married couple. With Ginobili supplying the trick-shot passes, and Blair producing the kind of slick catches and nimble finishes that belie his 6-foot-7, 270-pound frame, the Spurs’ second unit often has become must-see theater.
Where Oberto was a Hall of Fame pick-setter, Blair has proven himself adept at the other half of the equation.
“He’s a really good roller,” Ginobili said. “I know he’s going to be attacking the rim. That’s something you can count on, even when you don’t see him.”
That’s an excerpt, and the rest of the article is worth your time. But for now we’ll consider the matter settled: DeJuan Blair is one part Fabricio Oberto, one part Carl Landry.
34 Comments
March 4th, 2010 at 7:55 am
blair is playing great when other g.m . where scared the spurs took the gamble and it looks good so far. Go Spurs Go!!!!!!!!!
March 4th, 2010 at 8:54 am
For further study, you should link to the video that I think was posted by Kevin Arnovitz on youtube breaking down the pick and roll. It concentrated on Manu, but Blair was on the receiving end of a lot of passes on that clip. I can’t find it right now.
March 4th, 2010 at 10:23 am
Up until recently when Manu got his game going, Blair really was our 6th man. There have been several times (like that Boston game in the original article) where Blair really was the one who kept us in the game.
March 4th, 2010 at 11:03 am
I’m glad the assistant coaches convinced POP to play him.
I know he has no shot at Rookie of the year but you can make a case that he has had the best impact on his team.
March 4th, 2010 at 11:27 am
Reminds me more of a Malik Rose. The guy that impressed us enough for us to give him $40+ million
Although I think Blair has a greater potential
March 4th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
I’ve made the Malik Rose comparison myself, usually when discussion Blair with my friend who wants to keep comparing him to Charles Barkley.
Yes, Blair’s ceiling is probably a bit higher than Malik, but in the grand scheme of things, when his career is over, comparisons to Malik will be much closer than comparisons to Sir Charles.
Regardless of how much we like him, how hard he works and how good his production is right now, he is still an undersized forward that you cannot run your offense through. Blair is most likely a career role-player; one that we all love to see in the silver and black.
March 4th, 2010 at 12:28 pm
OneWing
March 4th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
“Yes, Blair’s ceiling is probably a bit higher than Malik, but in the grand scheme of things, when his career is over, comparisons to Malik will be much closer than comparisons to Sir Charles.”
“Blair is most likely a career role-player; one that we all love to see in the silver and black.”
We can’t draw these conclusions yet. He’s much too young, and it depends on how obsessive his work ethic is, how he’s developed by his coaches, and what the ultimate impact, if any, his ACL situation has on his career.
March 4th, 2010 at 12:40 pm
If Tyreke Evans is the clear cut RoY then DeJuan Blair has to be the clear Runner-Up. Beast has been a great fit for my beloved Spurs and my wife and I love, I mean love, watching the Manu/Beast pick-and-roll. Especially when it ends in a DeJuan Blair dunk. On a side note I think RJ moving to the second unit with ObiwanGinobili and Beast is better for his style of play. If RJ can keep gaining his confidence with the second unit along with Blair and Manu I don’t see the Spurs second unit giving up the title as most productive bench this season.
March 4th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
I think if there was a per 48 minute production statistic over rookies, blair would be much better in all categories than evans and therefore win ROY. Evans gets over 40 mpg and blair gets barely 20 and half the time he is at the center position. Make the case, blair for mvp!!!
March 4th, 2010 at 1:24 pm
not to burst anybody’s bubble, but i don’t necessarily agree with the fabricio/malik/landry comparisons. now i’m not saying they’re without merit, but the player i see does not bode well for the spurs in the coming years. blame it on the body, blame it on the lack of ligaments, blame it on whatever, but i see more of a post-injury elton brand. i absolutely LOVE blair’s game and attitude, but the body and mobility remind me of a present day elton.
March 4th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Fin picked up by Celtics. They’re probably hoping they get some spot up shooting from 3-pt. land that they lost when they traded Eddie House. I wish him the best. That said, I’d be surprised if he ends up being a steady contributor to that team throughout the playoffs. Just doesn’t have the game anymore, and can’t defend in the least - something the Celtics won’t be able to live with for long.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AnNGsByhkeO2GmHlgSlGPAO8vLYF?slug=ys-finleyceltics030410&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
March 4th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
@ bushytop: Blair’s footwork is far better than Brand’s. And he has a better sense of spacing and presence than Brand, too. Consider HOW they play more than what they look like and you’ll see.
March 4th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
Sorry for the double, but wanted to say good luck and best wishes to Fin. There’s now a player on the Celtics that I actually like.
March 4th, 2010 at 2:22 pm
@SAJKinBigD: sorry but i’m bored at work….
i definitely know what you’re talking about with the footwork — brand always seems to take the long way around instead of an easy drop step and is not as good a pick and roll player at this point as blair in his rookie year. point conceded there. plus blair has more energy than elton playing on a combination of red bull and coke.
it’s not that i look at blair like he’s some composite of brand, but there are some similarities in the two at home in the painted-area players — at least more than what i see when the comparison is the triumvirate of rose/landry/oberto. they both love the booty-bump and up move and rely more on misdirection and off hands than length or athleticism (this is where i see landry fitting in too). i also would not want to rely on either one of them if my life depended on someone shooting a 15 footer.
you think there’s another comparison that we’re all missing? or are these comparisons pointless and only good for arguing?
ps i hate duke players (except strangely cory magette) so i’m not some elton stan.
March 4th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
“I think if there was a per 48 minute production statistic over rookies, blair would be much better in all categories than evans and therefore win ROY. ”
At the halfway mark Blair was leading all rookies in WP48. Of course, minutes do matter. If you play less, you have less opportunity to produce. I love Grizzly Blair, but I give Evans the nod.
Actually, according to the wages of wins at the halfway point Blair had produced as many wins as Evans in half the minutes. So nevermind, Blair for ROY.
March 4th, 2010 at 2:37 pm
bushytop
March 4th, 2010 at 1:24 pm
I don’t know what game you’re watching. Blair has tremendous upside.
March 4th, 2010 at 2:57 pm
Wowzas!
I can’t believe how many people on here are minimalizing Blair’s contributions. The guy is 20 years old and has no ACL’s!
When Dejuan Blair is averaging 35 min + a game he will be Top 5 in the league in rebounding.
Can Malik Rose ever say that?
March 4th, 2010 at 3:13 pm
People forget Brand was never as good as anyone thought he was. There is a reason why only the Clippers and Sixers went after him. He was a solid double-double player, but he was no better than David Lee, and i think in time Blair has the ability to surpass both. One thing people dont talk about with Blair is his ability to dribble (which is way better than average for a PF) and his ability to pass, which is something Oberto was good at and i think Blair will one day catch him.
And I would argue that the Spurs HAVE run their offense through Blair on several occasions and he has produced well- and i’m not just talking about in the pick and roll. He’s got good post moves. If you look at the original article, he took Garnett (previous Defensive player of the year) to school one-on-one. He did the same against OKC when he went 28/21 or whatever it was. Hes especially good for a rookie. I have no doubt if he was getting 30 minutes a game he would be averaging about 12/10 and 2 assists. Look at what the other rookie bigs are doing and compare.
I think his ceiling depends on his usage. I think if he ever becomes a major part of the offense 16/12 wouldnt be out of the question. We’ve seen how well his free throws have improved this year. It’s not unreasonable to think he’ll be able to shoot a midrange jumper by this point next year.
I’m really high on this kid. And how can you not be with that smile?
March 4th, 2010 at 4:13 pm
deCarl Bloberto
March 4th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
deFabio AirBlair
March 4th, 2010 at 6:14 pm
Fabjuan Oblairto
March 4th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
Oberto was always there at the right time to take a charge. When’s the last time Blair took a charge. Oberto also had a higher IQ and good hands. But then again Oberto is 45 and Blair is still a baby
March 4th, 2010 at 8:40 pm
@Mason
BLAIR has tried to take charges. But either his feet aren’t set right or the Refs don’t give it to him because he is a rookie.
March 4th, 2010 at 9:22 pm
I agreed, Blair is hit with many “rookie” foul calls. Just crap. In fact, more crap is that Duncan does not get “benefit of doubt” calls, as he has earned them! I guess it is part of being a Spur.
March 4th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
I don’t quite understand all the hate on Elton Brand. He was a 20/10 machine before he blew out his knees several years back. In fact, this was the primary reason no one really wanted him when he came into free agency 2 years ago. With that said, I see a great deal of similarities between Blair and Brand. Both are undersized, wide bodied, long armed power forwards who are great at creating contact to get rebounds and points. Both are physical bangers who create space with their bodies to get close shots.
With Blair’s knack for finding the ball, his basketball sense, his sense of spacing, and his vice grip hands I think he has a pretty high ceiling. As someone noted, his free throw shooting has VASTLY improved since the beginning of the season thanks to Chip Engelland. With this kind of improvement in only 6 months, you can begin to see what he might be able to do in a few years. This kid could be good. My heavens, if Blair develops to where he is “only” as good as Brand, that would be unbelieveable.
March 4th, 2010 at 10:47 pm
@ Mason - But then again Oberto is 45 and Blair is still a baby. LMAO.
Pop struggles with unknowns. Whether it’s going against a team without their best player. Or playing rookies
Blair will get better with age, but once Pop can treat him as a known quantity he will not be as free to make mistakes and his minutes will always be held in check. It’s just the way Pop coaches. I think Blair is an incredible basketball mind and the Spurs have already benefited from his play. I see more Magic in Blair than Bark.
March 4th, 2010 at 11:42 pm
“DeJuan is practically Argentinean.” Haha. That was funny.
March 4th, 2010 at 11:43 pm
I just hope POP doesn’t put him on ice come playoff time. Like he did George Hill last year.
March 5th, 2010 at 8:43 am
Apparently Finley is gonna be a Celtic now.
For shame!
March 5th, 2010 at 8:59 am
Blairgentine
March 5th, 2010 at 9:47 am
First off - woot for intelligent conversation regarding Blair. Everyone makes some great points.
“Oberto also had a higher IQ and good hands.” Blair has similarly good hands. Stronger than Fabs, but not quite as agile, from what I’ve seen. Its a wash right now, but Blair may pass Oberto in that regard. As for the higher IQ, Oberto has been playing professional ball for what? 15 years? He has such an amazing knack for finding soft spots in defense in the paint. Blair could get there, too, as ball smart as he is. But Oberto was at least 3″ taller than Blair. Blair gets swallowed up by bigger players when he has the ball - I’ve seen this a lot. If he doesn’t have the ball in his hands and he’s going for it, surround him with 7-footers and he’ll still get the ball. But put the ball in his hands and surround him by 6′10″ guys, and he doesn’t really have the knack for moving the ball out of there yet. That should HOPEFULLY improve as he learns to recognize double-teams before they come.
The Elton Brand comparisons might not be far off, but don’t forget what Brand really showed himself to be - A player that can produce when given minutes, but it is probably better for the team if you don’t need him to produce for 40 minutes a game. The controlled approach to Dejuan’s minutes (especially when you can play him with Manu) is exactly where he needs to be right now.
Blair absolutely has an argument for ROY right now, too. It isn’t a winning argument, because of the minutes, but it is a good argument. WP48, APM and even PER he shows very high marks compared to other rookies. Put him in the discussion, but in the end, because Evans plays more minutes, he’s going to be perceived as more valuable by the voters.
But is his ceiling much higher than his current level of play? I say PROBABLY not. Projections are weird things, but they can be made. I can say I think his ceiling is closer to Rose than Barkley, and you can say its too young to know. Of course its too young to know, but that doesn’t mean its too young to project. And projections have a margin of error. But my projection still says he’s a slightly better Malik. The undersized workhorse thing only gets you so far in today’s NBA.
March 5th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
Hey, this feels like a really big game tonight. It’s the beginning of a tough stretch that will decide whether we make the playoffs and show whether we really have any business being there even if we do. So my question is, where’s the preview?
March 5th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
“But is his ceiling much higher than his current level of play? I say PROBABLY not.”
I say it PROBABLY is. I put his conceivable upside potential much more in the “Boozer” category, as an under-sized PF that can become dominate in games (and let’s face it, Blair has great hands, strength & bulk, a nice soft shooting touch, pretty decent hops, and adequate to above-average quickness for a PF - and then there’s the intangibles, which I think are large, all at the age of 20).
Also, without being privy to all the coaches and “experts” that continually analyze & assess his physical skills & intangibles, I think Blair MAY have the ability to add (after he develops a more consistent interior game at both ends, hopefully within the next couple of years) a solid perimeter & face-up game (working on his ball handling, his moves out of the pivot, a mid-range jumper, and perhaps even developing a 3-pt. shot remains a possibility). It depends on Blair’s work ethic, what he wants out of his game, and what his coaches are willing to help him develop.
Thus, I believe there’s still an outside chance he could still become closer to a Charles Barkley type, assuming his knees are OK (they don’t seem to be bothering him now, so who’s to say!). Also, Blair seems to be the type of guy that won’t settle for a one or two dimensional game. I think he wants to expand his repertoire of skills as much as possible to become a “complete” player, one that has the ability to “dominate” games at the power forward spot. I think yours, and some of the other comments, indicate that you do not yet see the true “diamond in the rough” we may have found in this young talent.
And there’s one important thing appears unequivocally obvious: Blair has one of the most positive, aggressive, enthusiastic, psychologically balanced, confident, & aggressive ATTITUDES that I’ve ever seen in a 20 year old professional athlete. This should take him a long ways, in my book. We’ll see.
March 5th, 2010 at 5:48 pm
Different people often have different projections, and no decent projection exists without good reasons to back it up. You reasons are good reasons to back up your projection. I have only two quibbles with them.
1) Expansion of his game - No interior-style big man in my memory developed a 3-pt game after getting into the league. Very few interior-style big men developed a dribble game after getting into the league. Mid-range jumpers and more low-post moves are entirely possible for Blair. With a continued work ethic and dedicated development, he could also turn into a fantastic fast-break big man. If you want to look at the peak possibilities of his ceiling in that respect, Elton Brand or even Amare Stoudamire are valid comparisons. But those require a lot of growth and development that are, at best, “uncommon” or even “rare” for interior-style big men to develop after getting to the NBA.
2) He is, without a doubt, undersized for his position. This is an absolutely HUGE hurdle for him to overcome. Magic and Barkley are the closest to his physical type that were able to overcome that in interior play. Yes, there is something innate and absolutely lovable about his ability to get rebounds while being undersized for his position. That ability cannot be denied, but it also cannot be coached or taught. It is in his very being to find that ball. But it isn’t really in him, today at least, to overcome that height when he has a dedicated defender on him and he is trying to score.
Is it within the realm of possibility that he can overcome that? Absolutely. Do I want to see him overcome it? You bet ya.
Is it likely? History says no. Magic and Barkley were Hall of Fame talents and they had it in them from the start of their careers. And they played in a completely different era of basketball with rule changes and the like.
I’m hoping you are right, and I can’t tell you that you are wrong. But we do have different projections for him, and that’s ok.
Leave a Reply