Monday, April 12th, 2010...1:00 pm
Could Richard Jefferson opt out (and would the San Antonio Spurs want him to)?
Heading into the trade deadline this season, Richard Jefferson and his roughly $14-15 million cap figured weighed on the San Antonio Spurs neck like a huge albatross, choking the life out of roster flexibility while counting down to an impending luxury tax payment.
It was a hit Gregg Popovich and RC Buford gladly took last summer (albeit with Peter Holt’s money) to give the team a chance at competing this year. Then, as Timothy Varner pointed out, the science was sound but the execution was lacking.
At the trade deadline, the Spurs might have done anything to remove the contract from their books. But time and circumstance have a way of changing things.
According to an article by Chris Tomasson over at NBA Fanhouse, Richard Jefferson might consider opting out of his contract.
“That’s a situation I think every player will look at at the end of the season,” said Jefferson, making $14.2 million this season and due to earn $15 million in next season’s final year of his deal if he doesn’t opt out. “I probably wouldn’t make 15 (million dollars) some place, but you could somehow recoup some of that over a multi-year deal and get some guaranteed money for the next few years.
“So you figure it out. If you’re able to get four years and 40 (million dollars by opting out) from someone, it’s like, ‘OK, I did lose out on 15 (million dollars). But I’m going to get basically a $25 million extension.’ Those are things that you think of at the end of the season.”
Jefferson obviously will not make anywhere near the money currently on his contract, but should he pick up his option he risks the Spurs not extending him and facing an uncertain collective bargaining agreement after a probable lockout season that will see the athletic small forward on the wrong side of 30.
For the Spurs, such an unlikely event would be a welcome relief from a business standpoint but could have dire basketball effects.
Since the articles chronicling Richard Jefferson’s struggles, two things have happened which have markedly improved his value.
First, Jefferson has become a very useful player, as my colleague pointed out after the recent win over the Los Angeles Lakers:
Jefferson’s rebounding and ability to score in transition are noticeably improved. Richard Jefferson was a must-be-accounted-for offensive threat against the Lakers, and this wasn’t the case earlier in the season. Some of this is Richard Jefferson’s growing understanding of the Spurs’ schemes, but most of it is his coach’s careful consideration of how to play him, and with whom. Richard Jefferson is no longer an offseason bust.
The second-as soon as the trade deadline passed Jefferson’s trade value shifted from Richard Jefferson the player to Richard Jefferson the expiring contract.
For all the money the Spurs would save in luxury tax payments should Jefferson opt out, it’s not like it opens up a trove of salary cap space to enter the LeBron James sweepstakes. With Manu Ginobili’s new deal, he is for all intents and purposes the Spurs big free agent of 2010.
Should the Spurs find themselves wanting in this year’s playoffs, their best asset for improving over the summer will be Jefferson’s expiring contract.
The current-and similarly expiring-collective bargaining agreement precludes the Spurs from signing new players into maxed out salary cap space beyond the league minimum or within the provided exemptions. But a team over the salary cap may improve through trades, provided salaries match up within a certain percentage.
Theoretically, the Spurs could flip Richard Jefferson and smaller assets to a team looking to cut salary (like the 76ers were looking to do with Andre Iguodala at the trade deadline), cashing in on the same economy and circumstances that brought Jefferson into the mix in the first place.
Should the Spurs lose Jefferson for nothing they face the arduous task of replacing a player of his quality, which while overpaid is still significantly better than anything the Spurs could find in the Developmental League or for the league minimum.
Whatever salary cap space the Spurs clear up this summer, or use of the midlevel exception, will (hopefully) be earmarked for Tiago Splitter. Beyond that, the Spurs would be looking to fill Jefferson’s spot in the starting rotation with players like Malik Hairston or Garrett Temple.
Is Richard Jefferson’s current play worth his enormous contract? No. But losing him doesn’t necessarily put the Spurs in position to find a better player or field a better team.
43 Comments
April 12th, 2010 at 1:23 pm
Wouldn’t losing his contract help with Splitter?
April 12th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
@Jordan -
Not really. If after RJ opts out, and we’re still over the cap (likely), we can only offer Splitter up to the MLE (approx $5.5M).
If we are left under the cap after he opts out, we can offer any amount up until the salary cap figure, but that’s not going to be much. Most likely, we’ll only be able to offer the MLE to anyone, including Splitter.
April 12th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
we should convince him to opt out and then extend him 5 yr 25 mil
April 12th, 2010 at 1:43 pm
Correction -
If RJ opts out, we will be under the cap, but not by much. You can offer the MLE if you are over the cap, or if the signing takes you over the cap. For us, Splitter would take us over the cap, making the MLE the maximum we could offer.
But to answer your question - no, RJ leaving doesn’t make it easier to sign Tiago.
Hope that made sense.
April 12th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
I hope RJ does not opt out. He’s a decent player (especially as of the last 2 months) whose production will be tough to replace. He’ll also be more valuable next year as a player (one more year in the system and his role) and as a huge expiring contract.
April 12th, 2010 at 1:57 pm
Man, what a bad contract.
Its a select few whose salary (in millions) is greater than their PER (14.2 : 13.2).
April 12th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
yes, i do hope RJ opts out.
he is a very solid player who does little things well, knows his role, plays great defense, and is aggressive. so yes, i would love him on the Spurs, but feel we could use cap flexibility more. So i’m hoping RJ goes on a tear during hte playoffs as the Spurs win their 5th ring.
RJ then opts out, resigns with the Spurs in a sign-and trade deal, ending up on a team that would use him best, while bringing something in return to SA. if he doesn’t opt out that means what the Spurs would get back from a trade is a close to max contract. i’d prefer getting a solid player in the $7-10 million a year range.
not sure what teams would be interested in RJ or where his value is maximized but i would be happy with following trades
w/ Kings for Andres Nocioni and Omri Casspi
w/OKC for Jeff Green
w/ Clippers for ??? (good fit for them, although they could sign him outright w/out giving up anything)
w/ Chicago for ??? (might miss out on big signee)
so actually i would only do it if we got Nocioni and Casspi (unlikely OKC breaks up young core). That would give us a veteran SF who does same things as RJ well- defense, gritty, team player- and a young player who Spurs really like- Casspi.
thoughts?
April 12th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
@pablo: The Nocioni & Casspi deal is probably the best we could get. I think RJ will still be in silver & black next season, however.
April 12th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
Do you think Joe Johnson will ask for max money this offseason?
April 12th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Thoughts? Yeah I have a few of those
1) Firstly, why would OKC trade Jeff Green for another wing when they already have Durant, arguably the hottest property in the NBA at the moment?
2) Why would SAC swap Casspi, one of the best rookies on a very reasonable contract in a difficult economy for an aging Jefferson?
Believe it or not, most NBA execs don’t share the same “Midas touch” that Isiah had with the Knicks.
April 12th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
I think it all depends on how the playoffs shake out.
If the Spurs do very well, there may be the temptation to add in an MLE player and look to shed some salary before the deadline to minimize the tax hit to mazimize the potential of this line-up.
If however, the Spurs do poorly, I’m expecting the Spurs to start pulling out all 0f the stops to improve the roster for next year.
April 12th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
Best case scenario would be to trade Parker/McDyess/rights to Splitter to Minny for Love/Sessions/rights to Rubio (Minny will be well under the cap, so they can take on more money in a trade) and swap Jefferson/Picks to Golden State for Maggette/Randolph/filler. This would get the Spurs well under the luxury tax, and really help them reload for the future. Minny would probably be happy to get Parker even though he’s expiring because he would be forced to sign an extension before the new CBA takes effect, otherwise he could see his future earnings go down the drain.
With these transactions, the Spurs would have a payroll of $55M next season with 10 players under contract + possible Mahinmi + the entire MLE for a player like Mike Miller, Josh Childress (Atlanta can’t match if they extend JJ), Tyrus Thomas, Haywood, Salmons, Matt Barnes, Amir Johnson (either a good wing or a shotblocking big man) + the entire BAE for a player like Nate Robinson, Shelden Williams, Joe Alexander, Johan Petro, or Josh Boone. We can also keep Bonner/Mason if we go a little over the tax.
Love/Randolph/Rubio/Blair core would give the Spurs 4 blue chippers with a mistake-free defensive stud in Hill and some uberathletic system guys in Mahinmi (please keep him!), Hairston, Gee, Temple, or maybe even Marcus Williams if he ever sticks on the team. Even if they can’t get Rubio, the Spurs need to do anything they can to steal Love from Minny. This could easily be a core that continues to win championships well after Tim/Manu retire.
April 12th, 2010 at 3:00 pm
Well that truly is a “best case” scenario…I like playing armchair GM as much as the next guy, but that’s a lot of moving parts (no disrespect intended)
April 12th, 2010 at 3:00 pm
That sounds good Daniel and i wouldn’t be opposed to pulling the trigger on that…now we just gotta get Pop on the same page.
April 12th, 2010 at 3:15 pm
I’m gonna go pull those trades on my Xbox. I feel a dynasty developing…
April 12th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
He would opt out only if a team was offering the long term deal he is looking for. Who can he currently negotiate with? The Spurs. So it would have to be us giving him the longer deal.
RJ has to be thinking about after his contract expires. Other teams are probably thinking that the MLE is the best they would offer him, if they can afford it. This leads RJ to wondering how much he can make over the next four years. Let him exercise a player option and offer him some peanuts for a new deal of 3 years. He can always take a deal elsewhere, but will he get a title shot too? Probably not. If he did take a cheaper contract, I think the FO would be willing to spend more for another quality player.
April 12th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
Why would the Wolves trade players on rookie contracts for someone that will surely bolt after one year???
Their FO isn’t the smartest out there, but I don’t think they are idiots either.
Trades have to work both sides, I don’t think there is anything good for Minny on this one.
April 12th, 2010 at 4:11 pm
I think RJ is looking more towards the bigger name free agents. Just like we worried about Manu getting a big deal from teams like the Knicks who have prepared for cap room for big names but may not land them. Jefferson might be thinking that a lot of these big name players like LeBron and DWade will simply stay put in their current teams and the subsequent teams who cleared all this cap will have to bring in someone in order to appease the fan base and show them something rather than just a bunch of continued cap space. Perhaps Jefferson could be looking at a wide open system in New York with Dantoni and a return to the area he was so familiar with.
April 12th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
Miguel, I think you may have a point
April 12th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
When I first read this yesterday I was feeling quite happy then I realised any sort of financial security would have to come to the Spurs and the article on fanhouse was him talking about how he could opt out of his 15mil and then go for something like 4 years 40mil which is a crazy number (which he doesn’t deserve by the way) then I thought maybe he’s going to get Rudy Gay treatment and get some sort of pay check that he doesn’t deserve but gets it anyway because of the 2010 free agency spending bonanza.
There is always that possibility of Jefferson doing nothing and then signing with a offense orientated team like the Suns or Knicks after next season.
April 12th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
FO might have seen this coming, with all the signing of young 3s from the D-league (Hairston, Alonzo Gee, and even Temple). If RJ opts out, it does free up a lot of salary and Spurs will no longer be paying ridiculous amounts of tax next season. From basketball point of view, RJ opting out is a huge blow, but would Holt be willing to pay all those taxes if his team does badly in this postseason? Maybe a sign-and-trade to collect some draft picks and/or decent role player(s) would help both financial and roster issues, I don’t know, but I hope that he does opt out. 15 mil is just too much money esp. when they’re paying Manu more than 10 mil next season.
April 12th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
What isn’t discussed in this post is the possibility that Holt might not be ok with this payroll for this team and if Jefferson isn’t able to be traded in a salary dump of for multiple players making less money per year than I wouldn’t be surprised if Tony Parker ends up on the chopping block. George Hill is getting better and better and while he may not be anywhere close to what Parker is, he also is locked in to making about a tenth of what Parker makes for 2 more years.
Either way unless the team ends up being really impressed with Hairston, Gee, and Temple over the summer, I think Jefferson or Parker will be traded to fill holes throughout the roster.
Obviously the #1 choice would be the exile of Jefferson.
In Jefferson’s case I think the Spurs would just salary dump him if they could, then they would bring Splitter over, increase Blair’s role, maybe bring back Oberto for the vet minimum, and then trade Mcdysse for a veteran SF.
If Parker was the one to go, I could see something like a trade with Portland for Andre Miller, Batum, and maybe a draft pick. Or S.A. adds Mcdysse to that package if we could also get back Martell Webster , the last part might be a bit of a reach but that would give Portland some frontcourt depth and open up more room for Rudy Fernandez.
April 12th, 2010 at 5:40 pm
Marcos
April 12th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
“Trades have to work both sides, I don’t think there is anything good for Minny on this one.”
I have to agree with you on this one, Marcos. For one thing, the Wolves love Flynn, and want to give him the playing time he’ll need to develop quickly (with good coaching). Also, you’re right about Parker, he won’t stay with a team still in the early stages of rebuilding, with suspect prospects. Plus, the Wolves aren’t going to give away two very young players, with significant upside, for a guy likely to bolt with chronic foot problems, and an aging PF (36 yrs. old!). Teams that are rebuilding don’t make those kinds of trades.
The Jefferson for Randolph idea that Daniel mentioned “might” work (since the Warriors have too many guard/forward, young talents), and would be something I’d be interested to look more into as an “at the trade deadline” type of deal next February, particularly if we can continue to facilitate RJ’s recent renaissance.
I do appreciate Daniel’s efforts, but I think he’s thrown a bit too much on the table for people to get a realistic & firm grasp of. In my view, our first priority should be to focus first, just on TALL, reasonably young if possible, shot-blocking type “bigs”. And ask ourselves some questions: Who can we realistically get that would be a good fit, for either the MLE (which is not much $ for this type of player), or via the trade route.
Our other need, in my view, is a proven, bona fide perimeter defender on the wing. Again, is it possible to acquire this type of player through a trade that would leave our team stronger in terms of challenging for a title?
I think if we focus on clearly defining our needs, list players for which it’s reasonable or realistic that we could acquire them, and finally, can we offer in return something that makes sense to both teams. Gotta put ourselves in the GM shoes of BOTH teams.
Miguel
April 12th, 2010 at 4:11 pm
That is possible, but unlikely because RJ’s performance for this season has been underwhelming, to say the least. That said, his game is more suited to a D’antoni system.
Cory Clay
April 12th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
“Either way unless the team ends up being really impressed with Hairston, Gee, and Temple over the summer, I think Jefferson or Parker will be traded to fill holes throughout the roster.”
It’s the only way I can see to get the players we need to “truly” challenge. But I’m afraid trading RJ won’t be enough. We probably won’t get enough back for him; probably nothing before next years trade deadline. I think TP should strongly be considered as trade bait, even though I fully appreciate Parker’s game. The fact is, we’re not competing for a title with improving our DEFENSE, primarily on the interior, but also on the perimeter.
“If Parker was the one to go, I could see something like a trade with Portland for Andre Miller, Batum, and maybe a draft pick.”
We’re not going to get Miller, Batum, & a draft pick for Parker. Portland loves Batum, and Parker’s not a particularly good fit for Portland. But the Spur FO would jump all over this if it was even remotely possible. It would give us youth & a solid wing defender with significant upside, which are very definite needs for this team. And of course, Miller is a savvy veteran, and can play.
April 12th, 2010 at 5:40 pm
lol @ the people who think we could get casspri for RJ.
April 12th, 2010 at 6:10 pm
i strongly doubt RJ would get more than $12 million a year tops. why would the Knicks give RJ a max deal if they fail to land a Lebron, Joe Johnson, or Bosh? Walsh has said he would like to keep flexibility to add a free agent in 2011 as well. besides, Knicks have Danilo Gallinari and they might end up with D. Lee.
not sure what RJ is going to do, but it does give the Spurs options.
as for trading Parker (don’t want to, but would at least consider) to Minny for that package- no way.
if anything RJ’s arrival (last summer) and Manu’s signing (last week) have shown Spurs front office wants to capitalize on Duncan’s remaining years. that means forget about long term projections if they affect opportunity to win NOW.
April 12th, 2010 at 6:43 pm
RJ opting out will help Holt with luxury tax, that’s all. It is important for the owner in a bad economy. And the youngsters should be given the chance to develop their play à la Collison-Thornton.
April 12th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
Just with the TP stuff..
One thing I wouldn’t want to do which I hope isn’t in Holts plan is rebuilding on the fly. We saw in Detroit it didn’t work.
But if RJ didn’t opt out, he would be a useful trade chip for the Spurs next season wouldn’t he?
Having an expiring contract is the in thing right now in the NBA.
April 12th, 2010 at 8:37 pm
@Tyler,
Yes that makes sense. Thanks!
April 12th, 2010 at 8:38 pm
I can’t see more than a 1 in 10 chance of RJ opting out of his contract. He is so vastly overpaid it isn’t even funny. At this point, RJ maybe a $7-$8 million/year player. Let’s look at the numbers. Why would he want for example a 4 year $30 million deal ($7.5 million/year) when he can make half of that in one year? If you take into consideration the time value of money, RJ would actually come out ahead if he made $15mill next year and then signed for a VERY reasonable 3 year $15 mil deal (a “lowly” $5 mil/year). The only reason I could see him opting out is if he is seriously concerned about the new CBA coming up in a year. In my opinion, RJ leaving wouldn’t be a super bad deal, but it is a fantasy none the less.
P.S. RJ will only be 31 next summer when he becomes a free agent. He can easily sign a 3-4 year deal at that point.
April 12th, 2010 at 8:43 pm
Because of the salary situation, I think that the FO is going have to consider both: doing something with RJ AND trading Parker. I would think they have a chance to get RJ at 8M x 3Y. That would cut his salary impact by 7M next year (14M saving if Lux. tax. effects are included.) But that would just get them under the salary cap (maybe). In order to actually clear some cap space they are going to have to give up more. The only asset that I think they can give up and get something decent in return is Parker.
The month with Parker out for the broken hand has demonstrated that the Spurs can still be a winner without him. Trading Parker probably would ensure that the Spurs have enough cap space to be sure of snagging Splitter, and probably some left over to plug other holes
April 12th, 2010 at 9:27 pm
I said earlier to swap he for Raja Bell?! I do not know why Spurs keep on waiting.
April 12th, 2010 at 10:19 pm
Sad, but JR is trying, maybe will improve, cause he played well with Lakers last week.
April 12th, 2010 at 11:36 pm
I would love to see ronnie brewer fill the spot… He is a free agent and would only command 6 to 7 mil a year … And plays much better d and a all around solid player
April 13th, 2010 at 1:42 am
fatsocalifornia
April 12th, 2010 at 9:27 pm
“I said earlier to swap he (RJ) for Raja Bell?! I do not know why Spurs keep on waiting.”
Actually, Bell has an expiring contract, and has now been waived by the Warriors. That said, he’s a solid perimeter defender, and three point shooter, and would be an upgrade to Bogans as the designated defender on the perimeter. If we could do a sign & trade with another team for Bell’s services, it might be something we could look at.
But if RJ was involved in a deal, it would probably have to wait until the trade deadline, mainly as a “salary dump” type of issue. Nobody’s likely to want his expensive contract for the entire year at this point, unless he turned out to be amazing in the playoffs, maybe.
April 13th, 2010 at 7:20 am
From Holt’s perspective, I think it all depends on how this postseason goes. If we have a strong showing (by that I mean making it to the WCF), I think he’ll be much more open to taking one more hit via the luxury tax next year.
If, however, we’re dominated in the 1st round, I think you’ll see a concerted effort on the FO’s part to pare salary. If this is the case, I can almost guarantee Jefferson will be gone by next year’s trade deadline, if not sooner.
As far as this offseason goes, no matter what happens, it’s all about Splitter. He’s our #1 priority. Maybe I’m being too optimistic, but I think we’re better than 50/50 to sign him. For what it’s worth, Hollinger stated our chances of signing Splitter were 85% in a recent chat. I also have no idea how he came to that number.
April 13th, 2010 at 10:16 am
bp
“I would love to see ronnie brewer fill the spot… He is a free agent and would only command 6 to 7 mil a year … And plays much better d and a all around solid player”
Exactly who I was thinking of. Ronnie Brewer for Tony Parker, if it could be arranged, would be a good trade. I think he would fit better in the Spurs system with his defense. With George Hill maturing and showing he can handle the responsibility, I think the Spurs would not be too badly hurt by this trade.
Also, Garrett Temple looks like he might be the real deal, and could serve as a quality backup. He was a defensive guard that learned to play offense in the D league, a natural Spur.
April 13th, 2010 at 11:12 am
I like Brewer, but I don’t see the Spurs trading Parker straight up for him. Plus, contract-wise, that would put Memphis over the cap. And I think the Griz want to stay young with Conley.
April 13th, 2010 at 4:33 pm
Ronnie Brewer for Tony Parker….
The insanity that is online basketball websites continues.
Without injuries Tony Parker is Top 5 in the NBA at his position, one of the most influential and difficult to fill.
Without injuries Ronnie Brewer is a solid Swing player.
At what point does this lunacy break down?
April 13th, 2010 at 4:48 pm
This is nonsense.
One poor season from a player with injuries and your all writing him off?
One year after averaging 22 ppg and 7 assists while shooting better than 50% from the floor the incredible Knee Jerk Reaction is we can win when he is out lets loose him.
Across the past 10 years.
77
82
75
80
80
77
69
72
55
Those are the Games played year by year for TP.
667/738 possible games. Thats excluding of course the enormously large amount of playoff games he has been through as well….Where he has shown time and again how ridiculously talented he is, and how quickly he can tear a whole in opposition D, something that only one other guy on the roster (Manu), can individually do, and not to the same level of TP. This is a playoff must have when D tightens up.
He got injured this year. What a surprise, he was about due. It happens to every elite player. Get over it and realise that you don’t just throw him under a bus because George Hill has had a solid season (no more than Solid by Parkers standards by the way, in fact sub par).
George is a great prospect and playing solid ball but he is not better than Parker when both are at their peak..
He has performed every time we’ve asked him to apart from the end of last year when he had absolutely nothing left…
Why was he so exhausted?
Because he carried the team when every other soul was injured? Hey we won without Tim & Manu then…lets immediately trade those guys as well…
The only comfort I can take here is that I know there is no way in hell the front office is as delusional as some of the posters on this page.
If you want to win in this league. You accumulate talent. You do not disperse it elsewhere. Trading Tony Parker for 20 Cents on the dollar is giving someone else a free run at a title.
Holding onto TP is the natural extension of building a winning programme. Something this Franchises front office is skilled at doing.
April 13th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
Just FYI, I in no way underestimate Tony Parker. I just think we need MORE help on the front line than you do. Indeed, one has to be VERY careful on what one gets back if we’re going to consider trading TP. No question. And perhaps his value on the open market is not as high as it is for our franchise? I don’t know. And while some on here may be a bit cavalier about the prospect of trading TP, by the same token, holding on to TP “come hell or high water” is, in my view, passing up on “potential” opportunities to make our “team” stronger in terms of “truly” challenging for the title, NOW, and into the FUTURE.
Tony & George look pretty healthy right now, and should have their game legs back shortly. The playoffs are upon us. We’ll see how we do. And then we’ll have to take a closer look as to whether simply the MLE will be enough to make us “truly” competitive over the next few years.
April 13th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
I wasn’t just talking to you Jim, however I do agree on the frontline thing.
I just don’t think we’ll get a trade that is all that helpful with TP until he is injury free. I doubt he’ll be ready to rumble this playoffs despite the brave face and upbeat words of the past week.
If we have all star Tony playing next season, Tiago or some other Frontline stud has not snapped up our MLE, and George has progressed his game to the next level then I am absolutely fine with pushing a trade and getting back a quality Big Man back with a solid backup point guard in exchange for either George or TP.
Right now if Tony starts up next season hammered and we push him out the door it’s going to bite us so hard on the arse.
April 13th, 2010 at 10:19 pm
Sounds reasonable to me, Bushka. You’re right, teams may still be concerned about whether TP’s injury issues are in the past as of yet. This could hamper our ability to get enough back for him, and it would be a mistake on our part to pull the trigger prematurely. It’s definitely a delicate issue if we were to consider a trade of TP. I agree with you on that.
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