Thursday, April 15th, 2010...10:05 am
Wayne Winston evaluates Spurs-Mavericks
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According to Winston, the Spurs will beat the Mavericks so long as Keith Bogans doesn’t receive too much burn. That, and DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner should play together. (They did last night, and it didn’t seem to hurt.)
You’re right, it’s not that simple, but Winston raises several interesting points. Here’s how the Spurs will beat the Mavericks, stat geek style.
58 Comments
April 15th, 2010 at 10:27 am
Interesting. I see Bogans as a role player in the shadow of Bowen. He has certain match-ups where he’s useful (guarding LeBron, Durant) and if he’s making his 3 he earns 20-25 minutes in games where we have the lead in the second half. I also like the physical way he fouls and his toughness to not back down. It’ll come in handy during this playoff run. That said, Dallas may not be the best series for him to receive more than a few minutes per game.
I appreciate the lineup breakdowns. I’m sure Pop and staff know this and will adjust in the playoffs accordingly. It’s nice to see how useful Dyce is regardless of his point total. The stats show this to be at worst and even match-up for the Spurs if not advantageous.
April 15th, 2010 at 10:34 am
Can you please email this straight to Pop. Some of these things have been apparent all season and yet I still see combinations that clearly do not work. The change happened with parkers injury when Pop was forced to switch his rotations and the team has gotten better.
I will say I was surprised about hill struggling in 4th. So wat line up should clse the fourth? Im guessing Manu, TP, RJ, Duncan, Mcdysse?
April 15th, 2010 at 11:05 am
yes, that is exactly the lineup we should use
April 15th, 2010 at 11:13 am
@Renato - it will depend on whether the team is leading or trailing. Remember how Bowen would often sit if we were losing late? When down you go with your best offensive matches. When up you go more with defense and rebounding. If we’re up you might see Bogans instead of RJ or Dyce.
April 15th, 2010 at 11:33 am
Put in Bogans for purposes of fouling other players.
Duncan-Parker-Hill-Manu-RJ-Blair-Dice can be our solid line-up. Mason and Bonner should spend every practice minute shooting 3’s. We need our big shooters to win.
Good rotations = wins!
April 15th, 2010 at 11:46 am
I’ve been preaching Bonner/Blair since one of the earlier Winston pieces (No. 4) inspired me to go look at the +/- groups on NBA.com.
I wrote this on March 4th,
“Blair and Bonner both show really well together.
Here are our top 11 trios by +/- per minute (minimum 75 minutes played together).
1. (.572) RJ, Bonner, and Blair
2. (.548) Manu, Mason, and Bonner
3. (.496) Hill, Bonner, and Blair
4. (.470) Manu, Bonner, and Blair
5. (.461) Hill, Mason, and Bonner
6. (.414) Mason, Manu, and Duncan
7. (.385) Parker, Hill, and Dice
8. (.339) Parker, Dice, and Duncan
9. (.336) Hill, Manu, and Bonner
10. (.330) Hill, RJ, and Bonner
11. (.315) Parker, Manu, and Dice
They didn’t qualify because of minutes but
.636 for Parker, Blair, and Bonner was our best and
.414 for Bogans, Blair, and Bonner would tie for 6th. On 2 man units, Blair-Bonner (.460) beats every other one by a huge margin. The only one even close was Finley-Parker (.373). Manu and Bonner is the next best at .303. That puts Bonner-Blair as scoring +7.5 points per 48 minutes to our next best tandem. Sick.”
April 15th, 2010 at 12:04 pm
Winston is the guy who convinced Avery to switch his lineup for the Warriors series, right?
I see some practical advice in his work but I wonder how applicable it will actually be. Playing Bonner and Blair does make some sense because Bonner helps space the floor and Blair grabs all the rebounds. In fact, that’s probably what kept last night’s game from being an even worse loss.
April 15th, 2010 at 12:17 pm
I like the line-up.
It’s going to be a tough series.
I think SPurs will take it for one reason:MANU.
POP said it:”He does what Jordan did, without the athletic ability.”
Again, people just don’t understand how great he is.
April 15th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
Have to echo Hollywood’s point here. Advanced stats have their place, but as the Dallas - Warriors series proved they don’t hold all the answers.
April 15th, 2010 at 12:50 pm
I love seeing stats. I’m a stats geek but we have to put some disclaimers on stats before we take them as gospel. Blair and Bonner are both bench players. Some of their time together comes during blow outs when it’s srcub vs. scrub so the stats may be a bit padded. Blair and Bonner against opposing starters (starters that have been subbed in to counter our bench) is not a good match up, but I do like Blair/Bonner when it comes to strictly bench vs. bench.
April 15th, 2010 at 12:53 pm
True, THAT! If Manu had played heavy minutes throughout his Spurs career (which he hasn’t because of threat of injury) he would be recognized as all-NBA year in and year out, and would be an all-star upwards of six seasons. I said it over and over on these pages: Manu is easily a top-1o guard in the league yet again THIS season, and our best pointman, AND he does what true superstars do: makes teammates better. It took TP’s injury to prove this to those who didn’t see it. I’m all for a healthy G Hill, with TP as the sixth man who finishes most 4th quarters for us.
to the other point… Considering the units they are matched against, Bonner and Blair are (obviously) dramatically inferior to McD and TD. In a playoff series the two of them on the court together is almost irrelevant, except for the occasional blowout, and when the opposition is resting their skilled bigs (Dirk, Melo, Dirk, Amare, Aldridge/Camby, Odom/Gasol/Bynum, Boozer/Milsap/et al, Cleveland’s crew)… Defense wins championships.
April 15th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
Blair will have his minutes. An energetic big who competes for rebounds and scores near the basket is made for playoff basketball. Remember what Bass did to the Spurs last year? He’ll draw a few over the back fouls on Dampier and Haywood plus give his team a few extra possessions. Sometimes that’s the difference between a series win and loss.
April 15th, 2010 at 1:04 pm
i am curious about the +/- totals-how are the compensated for by the level of competition? for example, blair and bonner will often be playing against an opponent’s second stringers. same with mason and often bogans. seems like this skews their +/- totals a bit, especially when you start considering playoff rotations.
April 15th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
We all know Parker and Manu are great at penetrating and dishing to Bonner for a great look at 3. I’d be very curious to see how many of Bonner’s assisted 3’s started with Blair picks for the passer vs Duncan and Dice’s picks.
Blair is always an offensive rebounding threat even if he isn’t a direct scoring threat too so most teams are probably unwilling to cheat too far away from him.
Duncan also usually goes straight for his post moves on the left side. Blair hangs around the middle looking to set the pick more often. I think this is more beneficial for Bonner.
April 15th, 2010 at 1:08 pm
And to add:
Once Blair has set a pick that results in, guard penetration and a Bonner three with a defender trying to closeout, Blair gets space to rebound.
April 15th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
So starting should be Dice, Duncan, Rage, Manu, Cubits (?) and Closing should be Dice, Duncan, RJ, Manu, and TP (?)
April 15th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Dallas wins.
April 15th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
All numbers here adjust for strength of opponents. Like if I win by 10 points in 48 min against 5 guys who play 15 points worse than average, then the combo gets a -5 rating. In Warrior series Jackson JR and Davis was a combo to which Mavs had no answer.
April 15th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
Bogans needs to make his threes. Yeah, he’s an ok defender but basketball is all about putting the ball throught the hoop.
April 15th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
Wow….Intresting indeed…
Spurs will have thier hands full with Dallas, and though popular opinion suggests it, Ginnobli wont be enough to beat the Mavs in a series.
As for the Article, I disagree. I have absolutely no respect for Bogans’ game, however, (Gimme a Minute) they need him in this series.
As much as I despise having to admit it, Bogans and Hill will do the best job defensively on Jason Terry.
Most worry about Dirk when facing the Mavs. Dirk is a beast of a scorer, but Terry is Dallas assassin that can kill you. He will struggle against Hill and Bogans, but Mason shouldnt spend one second guarding Terry, not one!
As for the frontcourt…Dallas is weak in the frontcourt. Never thought much of Haywood and Dampier can be had. If Pop just plays the players, Spurs could get past this team. Blair, Dice, Duncan, and Mahinmi should be trown at this frontline. Spurs clearly have an advantage there.
Jefferson will do well with Marion as will Parker with Kidd. The guy that bothers me is Butler. Hopefully Ginnobli can deal with this guy without getting into foul trouble. Hairston could match up well with him too.
Beyond that…We must beware the little guys…Barea and Beaubois….Both are real ballers. Most know about Barea, but not about this new kid.
Beaubois is seriously talented. Jumps out of the gym, strokes the jumper, has great handles, and shows zero fear.
Intresting Series….The key is controlling Terry and company…
Dirk will get his, but Spurs cant allow career nights from the supporting cast…
April 15th, 2010 at 3:52 pm
Here’s what people dont understand about the game of basketball. IT IS ABOUT MATCHUPS. The +- does not take into account WHO these players play against or WHEN these sets of players play. Starters versus scrubs, injuries, runs, all dictate the plus minus so this stat is almost worthless.
Eye Test
then incorporate your stats.
Not just stats.
April 15th, 2010 at 4:07 pm
@TradeTp -
I don’t think any stat geek, from Wayne Winston to Hollinger, have ever argued that you should look at only the stats and nothing else. Instead, it’s a tool that when used with other methods of evaluation, can be useful.
And yes, there are mathematical formulas that can control for strength of teamates and opponents. It’s called adjusted plus/minus.
April 15th, 2010 at 4:43 pm
One of Winstons edicts regarding lineups, which he disclosed during the in depth truehoop articles that Henry Abbott published, was the horror of two non shooters playing in one lineup.
I think this is one of the reasons Blair + Bonner is solid for the bench guys.
Just makes a lot of sense that you can’t play bigs who can’t shoot together.
I agree with TradeTP & Ballhog regarding this series(in other news hell hath frozen over). It is all about the matchups let Dirk get his and limit everyone else especially Terry. Especially Terry.
I’d be happy to see George Hill sicced on JT all day long. I think George matchs up superbly with Jet simply because Jet is an undersized shooting guard. We give up nothing in terms of height and Manu is crafty and crabby enough to pour scorn on Kidd.
Put Parker in to destroy the 2nd unit.
God this is going to be fun.
April 15th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
“The Spurs are poor when Mason is in and Duncan out. They play 7 points worse than average per 48 minutes).”
Duh…you really need stats to figure that out? Hell, you could have stopped the sentence after “when Mason is in”.
Am I alone in getting a sinking feeling in my stomach whenever I see Mason with the ball? It’s the same feeling I get when I see RJ launching a three.
April 15th, 2010 at 6:29 pm
I know Ian won’t get much playing time in this series but during his time in last night’s game neither Dampier nor Haywood could handle his post game. And, of course, Blair killed on the boards. Hopefully, their defense won’t be any better against Timmeh, Dyce and the rest.
April 15th, 2010 at 7:53 pm
@ Aguitierrez
It is amazing isnt it. Coach keeps Mahinmi on the bench all year long. Shows no confidence in him whatsoever and purposely leads fans to believe that the kid was terrible.
Lots of genious’ said that D Leaguers were dogs. Couldnt play at the NBA level. Im sure that has now changed.
Kid should log minutes in the playoffs. Regardless of what his shortcommings are, his presence alone changes the face of the team. If he fouls out, so be it. His fouls could actually be a blessing in disguise since most bigs cant shoot freethrows worth crap.
Having Ian and Blair on the floor together against Dallas’ second unit would be good.
Having them both on the floor with Ginnobli at the point, would be nasty for Dallas to deal with.
If the Spurs decide to stop &%^$# around and play to win, they could make some noise. Not saying we will, but if we must go out,,,,,Rather go out knowing that you fired all your ammo than to get smoked with rounds still in left the clip. Play anybody that can contribute.
I would love to see the Spurs beat the taste out of the Mavericks mouths.
Hope Pop brings his A game!
Oh, and before I exit the 48,
Had to mention this Garrett Temple kid. He could be nice for the Spurs off the bench. Very impressed with his poise. Never got rattled. If Pop can teach him how to play defense, he could be nice for a few years. Great length. Spurs havent had that type of length at the 1 in many years. Teach this kid how to defend with agression at 6′6 and he could be a nasty matchup for some of the bigger guards in the league.
He should play in this series as well. Dallas cant match up with him.
April 15th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
BlaseE
April 15th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
Nice post!
For all of you, a few points to consider:
First of all, I don’t think we know who will START at the point for us in game one. It seems like it will be Hill, but you never know with Pop. And it depends on who’s the healthiest, if TP (& Pop) feels he’s at, or close to 100%, and if TD has a preference. If TP starts, Hill will be first to come off the bench. Personally, I don’t think it matters at this point, under these circumstances, who starts, although TD might have a higher comfort level with the guy he’s gone to war with so many times over the years. And let’s not forget how well TP & TD work together. We’ll see.
On match-ups:
We have size issues at every position but PF & SF. Lets take a peak at the likely, specific match-ups:
JKidd <> Parker or Hill
Kidd is taller, stronger, & heavier. And can post up. Obviously Hill is a better match-up defensively, and on the perimeter because of his speed & length, but Parker can also give Kidd fits by penetrating and scoring, dropping it to TD inside, or kicking it to the perimeter. Kidd has become an excellent 3-point shooter. Do not leave him WIDE open from the arc.
Butler <> Ginobli
Butler is taller, stronger, & heavier. And can post up. That said, this should be an interesting match-up. Will Butler in fact try to post up Manu? Can Butler make it difficult on Manu to penetrate the driving lanes? Who’s going to have their outside shot going? Butler’s a tough nut to crack. I’m looking for Manu’s magic to be forced out into the open in this match-up. Should be fascinating!
Marion <> RJ
If RJ plays well, and takes care of the ball (Marion is crafty, & a steals guy), this match-up can be an advantage for us. RJ should use his strength advantage and take the ball to the cup as much as possible. RJ needs to pay attention at ALL times on the defensive end. Marion loves to sneak out in transition for easy baskets.
Dirk <> McDyess
A superstar, great shooter, with a distinct height advantage, and four years younger. As we all know, Dirk will be a handful. He loves the perimeter, and has a killer mid-range game. The main thing with him is to try to get him off rhythm by mixing up coverages: doubling him in certain situations (not very often), and “faking” at doubles constantly. The key is to keep him out of rhythm in the fourth quarter, particularly the last 6-8 minutes of the game, and hit him hard on the boards the whole game. On the offensive end, Dice needs to not be hesitant to shoot and make those 15-20 foot jumpers - make Dirk work on the defensive end. Of course, Dice’s rebounding inside is critical. He must aggressively box out, be very active underneath, and still get a hand up on Dirk on the perimeter.
Haywood <> Duncan
This is a key match-up. Haywood is more mobile, and lengthier than Dampier, and is three years younger than TD. As you know, TD is more troubled by length than he used to be because with the basic aging and chronic knee issue he simply doesn’t get the lift that he used to. If he’s got his bank, and mid-range jumper going, that’s going to help tremendously. TD’s all-around skills are so good in big games that I expect him to play well. It’s also critical that he can maintain the energy to block out consistently on the boards, with there depth & height advantages.
Brief comments on rotation players:
I agree with others; Terry is a critical match-up. He’s very dangerous, particularly in the fourth quarter. I think he must be Hill’s primary responsibility. Hill’s got the speed & length to make it tough on Terry. For Barea, I think Parker is okay guarding him. Beaubois could be a match-up problem, particularly if they play him with Terry for short stretches. Perhaps Temple on Terry in such circumstances? I’d consider Bogans or Hairston on Stevenson, and Bonner on Najera. Dampier would have TD or Dice on him. If Tim Thomas is healthy, RJ on him.
By the way, I don’t think the other night was just a fluke with Blair against the Mavs. If Blair’s ready to go, and can stay out of foul trouble, he can be a mismatch for them on the offensive end because he’s got strong, relative quick moves in the paint (their “bigs” aren’t particular quick or agile), and can really crash the offensive boards. I hope Blair has gotten his second wind. Proper use of him could be critical in this series.
If Dallas “closes” with Kidd, Terry, Butler, Dirk, & Haywood, I would counter with Parker, Hill, Manu, TD, & Dice.
KEY:
NO lackadaisical play! We need to offset their size & length with tough “D” for 48 minutes, by getting very physical on the offensive & defensive boards, and limiting their athletes from easy buckets in transition (Butler, Beaubois, Marion, & Terry). Go Spurs!!
Main Rotation:
Parker, Manu, RJ, Dice, TD
Hill, Bonner, Blair, Bogans
I would use Hairston & Temple for spot minutes (possibly Mahinmi, if necessary).
I would not play Mason, unless necessary - the way he’s played the whole year, we cannot afford to give him more than a few minutes of playing time, unless he hits his first shot, then maybe. We’ve given him plenty of time to find his shot. Now it’s either “make it happen” or sit down, because he’s a very mediocre player in all other areas outside of shooting.
April 16th, 2010 at 1:24 am
That Bonner and Blair are our best tandem is really interesting and revealing. Its revealing because it speaks both to Bonner’s 3pt prowess (and how much other players are being forced to respect it and run out there to guard him) and Blair’s rebounding ability.
Because of Bonner’s height and 3 pt shooting ability, the player guarding him needs to be tall enough to contest his jump shot which already has a pretty high release point on his body anyway. But they also need to be the more mobile of the opposition’s big men because they’re gonna have to be running out to the line and back to the lane if Bonner decides to passes to another or follow him if he drives.
The reason why Bonner looks like a stud now with his driving is because it doesn’t take a difficult move for him to breeze by his 200lb defender that’s running at him from the lane and then has to totally change directions. What usually happens is he slips by the defender and the other big has to come off Blair to help stop the drive which creates an easy pass to Blair who dumps it in. Or Bonner’s missed 3 still means that Blair gets the space to go 1 on 1 down low for a rebound… a battle he’s very comfortable with.
The reason why this info is interesting is because it may suggest that DeJuan’s value is significantly enhanced by having a Bonner-style player on the floor (as opposed to another low rebounding presence like Duncan) which may be reason enough to give Matt a small contract this summer.
April 16th, 2010 at 1:39 am
Oh ya and TradeTp is totally right about the stats, they are useful to confirm or deny what you may already be observing with a team but they can also be deceptive and send you on wild goose chases. Take for example Hill’s negative +/- in 4th quarters: that can be easily thrown off with a player like hill who’s role has changed so much over the year. A bench player may log most of their 4th quarter mins in blowouts where the team is already way up or down. If George is carrying a lot of the scoring load during a game, his main job during a 4th quarter may be weathering the storm in the early 4th while Tim and Manu get their rest on to better finish the game, and then go on the bench himself during the key 4th quarter push after working his ass off leading the 2nd string.
I’m just guessing at these, I may have the reasons off but its easy to see how something as simple as the way a coach uses a player (say defending the best opposition player) can distort that player’s effectiveness.
April 16th, 2010 at 5:08 am
Good Stats are very strong, non-biased indications of what is really happening on the field/court. Baseball has taught us that the “eye test” just isn’t sufficient to evaluate the game.
However, Plus/Minus is not a good stat. I’d say its equivilent to RBIs.
April 16th, 2010 at 5:56 am
Keep in mind that Wayne Winston is the same guy that last year said that he wouldn’t want Kevin Durant in his team even if it was for free. And he said so based on his stats. So, I take his analysis very lightly. KD would be the MVP this season if it wasn’t fro Lebron.
April 16th, 2010 at 6:25 am
That’s kind of a cheap shot on Wayne. Durant’s overall game improved immensely this season. He’s had a great year, but last year he just wasn’t consistently helping the team win yet.
April 16th, 2010 at 6:59 am
individual +- is not a very good player evaluation stat. It probably works a lot better when evaluating units, not sure though.
Durant is a good example. Yes he improved, but he didn’t go from being one of the worst in the league to one of the best.
It’s nice to know with what groupings your outscoring our being outscored, but the year to year inconsistency makes it hard to use for individuals.
April 16th, 2010 at 7:57 am
Bduran- I agree.
+/- for an individual is absurd to measure by itself. Bonner may have our best +/- but I would bet 1 million dollars that more than a handful of high school starters who will never play in college have as much all around talent.
Bonner has one skill and its shooting uncontested threes. Just like McDyess with his 15 foot jumper that has been horrible this year.
Bonner is useful when there is no one else left, much like McDyess.
+- is a stat that, just like any other, should be used with other means of evaluation. Taking BS +/- ratings for more than what they are worth might be our team problem this year.
April 16th, 2010 at 8:01 am
He said it. I am not making it up. It is no cheap shot. But, if add that to how he “helped” the Mavs a couple of seasons ago…..
+/- is a nice concept but has way too much to adjust/improve to be considered at the top of statistical analysis.
April 16th, 2010 at 9:36 am
Trade TP,
The thing about Bonner is it’s not just +- that likes him, it’s production metrics as well. And looking at his stats there is only one reason for this, and that’s his 3 point shot. Being a 40% 3 pt shooter who shoots mostly 3s makes him an efficient scorer. You want more from a starter since he doesn’t rebound well, but having a guy off the bench who scores efficiently and spreads the floor is a great thing to have. We are lucky to have his 15 to 20 minutes a game.
As pointed out above, it looks like Bonner’s shooting really helps Blair in the post. He struggles again two bigs because of his size, but clear out the paint and give him one man to beat and he goes to town. The thing that sucks about this lineup is the lack of post D. Bonner is eratic and Blair is underzied and a rookie.
I think if we somehow manage to bring Splitter over that they could work really well together. From what I remember of the scouting reports he’s a good post defender and has a good jumper. The two qualities I’d want in a big to pair up with Grizzly Blair.
April 16th, 2010 at 10:00 am
I won’t write a book like some posters. The Spurs team chemistry finally showed up, especially when Parker went out with his right hand injury. Overall the Spurs have more players with playoff experience than the MAVS and the best bench in the league. If any coach can bring out the best rotation Pop will but will only play about 8-9 players if they don’t get into foul trouble. The strong teams in the East and West that looked extremely strong most of seasons have have floundered somewhat, especially the Celtics. I hope I’m wrong but the Spurs probably won’t make it to the finals but they can beat the MAVS and maybe get past the second round, the Spurs are healthy at the right time, due to Coach Pop. I give the Spurs 5-1 odds on making it to the finals. This should be the year of the Spurs Northeast(the Cavs). Go Spurs go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 16th, 2010 at 11:07 am
@bduran -
Exactly. Being a 40% 3pt shooter is huge. Taking into account 3’s, 2’s and ft’s, Bonner has a TS% of .581 - second highest on the team for guys that have logged over 1,000 minutes this year (Manu leads @ .584).
Bonner is a decent role player who fills a certain niche quite well. We’re not asking him to be a jack of all trades. We’re asking him to hit open 3’s and wok on defense and the boards.
Whether it’s +/-, adjusted +/-, TS%, or WS/48, Bonner shows well. These stats, coupled with what we see on the court dictate that Bonner should get 15-20 minutes on a regular basis.
April 16th, 2010 at 11:37 am
These stats are overly “wonkish”. I’m sure Pop knows what his rotations are going to be, stats or no stats. Can we talk about the Spur/Mavs match-ups in the upcoming playoffs?
See my post on this thread for a conversation starter:
Jim Henderson
April 15th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
April 16th, 2010 at 11:58 am
what a complete and total time waste! Go Spurs!
April 16th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
News note:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AnoF6qHsnAIyhBRbKIJ80gu8vLYF?slug=ap-boardofgovernors
April 16th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
Sure Jim,
The stats say that Jason Terry is not the same player as in the past. He’s posting a career worst PER and his WP48 is terrible. Jason Terry is always a threat to get hot and cost us a game, but over the course of the series I do not expect him to be a major threat. Look out for groin punches though.
Caron Butler is posting a below average PER and WP48. Both Butler and Terry just aren’t as good as they’ve been in the past. They can hurt you in a game, but I don’t think a team can rely on them for a series.
What Dallas does have is two good centers (Dampier is playing above his career average), a really good PF who we have no answer for, and a great PG. Kidd is probably their best player, but I think Hill can defend him if he’s healthy.
Dirk is still very good, but he’s been steadily declining every year since he peaked back in the 05-07 years. TD is still a better player as long as he stays reasonably healthy. If Blair keeps playing at a high level (not 25 and 23 high, but high) I think we have the better frontcourt even with the lack of production from McDyess. If Blair doesn’t, then Haywood and Damp trump, McDyess and Bonner and we lose that matchup.
Luckily, I don’t think that the Dallas guard are very good after Kidd. Beaubois is a very promising, but a rookie who hasn’t had a lot of minutes. Barea isn’t great (below average production, short, and not a great defender), although he’s okay to have on your bench for the occasional spark he provides. I’ve already addressed Terry and Butler. If TP really has returned anywhere close to form then Hill, TP, and Manu definitely win this matchup. I just hope we dont’ get too many minutes from Mason.
As for small forward, RJ is playing better and is no longer a detriment,but Marion is still better. However, Marion is yet another Dallas player on the decline and playing well below his peak with the Suns.
All in all I’d say we’re better at most positions from a production stand point. Assuming good health ,then if Bonner can hit his 3s and we can keep Terry from going off more than once in a fourth quarter I like our chances.
April 16th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
To clarify Winstons Durant comments.
He was specifically talking about Durants play last season. Particularly the fact that he was a very ordinary defender in pick and roll situations, which was where he was playing a huge proportion of his defence on the perimeter and where he was getting torched time and time again.
The fact he was a stellar offensive force was something Winston acknowledged, it was the poor performance defensively both in man to man D, rotations, and especially rebounding which he was pointing out.
He changed that this year. Look at the real improvement in Durants game and it’s all about the boring parts of the box score. Defence and efficiency.
On to the red rocket clause.
Why do people continually say of role players “all he can do is shoot”, “he is only good at rebounding”, or “he is only there to block shots”.
This is a league where you base a team around established quality and build a contender by filling in the gaps with role players and skill sets. Being 6′10 and able to shoot 3’s is a genuinely advantageous skill for our beloved spurs.
Disparaging Bonners skill set is crazy. You can’t play on any team in this league and be a crap basketball player, the best guy you ever played with in your life is more than likely not even close to good enough to get a look in.
Basketball is about balance and chemistry as much as anything else. Not getting as many 20 ppg scorers as possible onto the court at one time.
If you put Mahinmi & Blair on the court at the same time vs the Mavs in the playoffs they are going to stack the pants off the lane. You will get to watch your offence die and choke on a lack of jumpshots.
You cannot play non shooters together in this league, players are too smart, skilled and perceptive, they are not going to bother guarding Ian & Dejaun at 20 feet, they will help off them all day. Not to mention if you play them with Tony you now only have a maximum of two guys you have to chase off the three point stripe.
Balance. Its really hard for coaches to fill rotations with guys that can’t shoot a jump shot.
April 16th, 2010 at 5:22 pm
News Note:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=Ak3RqzE.Getyqlg82rPUuVO8vLYF?slug=ap-spurs-pointguards
April 17th, 2010 at 6:33 am
Spurs/Mavs Match ups
Parker—————-Kidd
Temple——————-Butler
Dice——————-Dirk
Duncan—————-Dampier
Jefferson—————Marion
I know….Ya wanna start G. Hill. Want that kid in the lineup. But you just cant do it. Gotta bring Hill off the bench in this series. He doesnt need starter minutes, he needs to mirror Jason Terry’s minutes. When Terry is in, Hill is in.
Besides, starting Hill creates a matchup advantage for the Mavs. Hill cannot handle Butler. Too big, too strong. Temple is better suited.
I open the floor on this match up business with the 48 VIP and the rooks….
What is the winning lineup and rotation for the Spurs in this series.
NOTE:
It is a disqualifier, a foul, an insult, to place Bonner or Bogans in any starting lineup. If this occurs, that poster is to be publicly whipped with a water hose on a downtown street corner!
April 17th, 2010 at 7:06 am
I think we need to keep Manu as a starter. I know I know, he runs the second unit, he’s a boost off the bench etc etc, but having him start will help us get into a good rhythm.
April 17th, 2010 at 7:08 am
We have to use what has been working: Hill, Manu, RJ, Dice, Duncan. We have to focus on playing our game rather than worrying about stopping the Mavs game. RJ and Manu should be together as much as possible. But what I am concerned is about Duncan. We need big numbers from him this post-season and he really hasn’t been putting up great numbers lately. Hopefully he will be well rested for Sunday.
The important thing to remember is that we do not need to win every game, unlike the last month of this season. Sure 4 out of 7 sounds a lot better than 4 out of 6, but both teams will make adjustments through the series.
This is the time to show that the Spurs are the best in the SW division, and with a few lucky games at the beginning of the year, we would be the #2 seed.
April 17th, 2010 at 7:09 am
my concerns are barea/beabois, and dampier/haywodd slowing down timmy. hopefully g-hill is healthy and i will probably get ridiculed for this, but we should play mahinmi. he can get dampier and haywood in foul trouble as he did the other night. if mahinmi has a strength, its getting to the freethrow line. damp and haywood get in foul trouble and timmy will be loose to do some damage. this may work for a game. hopefully dejuan can blow up for another big performance.
go spurs
April 17th, 2010 at 7:35 am
Main factors from my view are:
1) First round schedule spread favors Spurs.
2) The Mavs go to guy does not produce in the play-off’s. Dirk fades under the play-off pressure.
3) Manu does not. More often than not he excels.
If the Spurs take the first game the Mavs are in it deep.
April 17th, 2010 at 8:55 am
George Hill is a gametime decision… I hope the decision is that he will play.
April 17th, 2010 at 10:05 am
@ RJ
BINGO…Yes, Mahinmi must play in this series. He can get Dallas’ two bigs into some foul trouble. He will rebound, and if he is on the floor with Manu, he will score as well.
I hope Pop is reading some of these posts. He should give Mavs a big dose of Duncan, Blair and Mahinmi. However, it will not work if Manu is not on the floor.
If we see this lineup in this series, I guarantee it will kill Mavs.
Also you are right to be concerned about the two back up guards. Other than Terry, those guys must be contained in this series.
April 17th, 2010 at 10:19 am
Manu-Kidd
Temple-Butler
RJ-Marion
Dice-Dirk
Duncan-Dampier
I think this is our best matchup
2nd unit
Parker- Little Rat #1
Hill- Little Rat #2
Malik/RJ-
Bonner-
Blair-
April 17th, 2010 at 10:21 am
Manu and Parker are interchangeable in those line-ups
April 17th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Starting line-ups, match-ups, if Hill is healthy:
Hill Kidd
Manu Butler
RJ Marion
Duncan Haywood
Dice Dirk
Of course, match-ups are frequently interchangeable:
Parker, Hill, Temple Kidd, Barea, Beaubois
Manu, Hill, Bogans Butler, Stevenson, Beaubois
RJ, Hairston, Bogans Marion, Butler
Duncan, Blair, Bonner Haywood, Dampier, Najera
Dice, Mahinmi Dirk, Haywood
April 17th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
At Tyler and Bduran=
So youre willing to trade erratic 40% 4/17 in playoffs, for No defense, no rebounding?
It might be a different story if hes a three. But we use him to defend in the paint. He cant rebound, or defend. So trading opponents being able to hit us in our already weak spot, you two think its worth some dude POSSIBLY hitting 40% of his threes in 20 minutes?
That is the problem. You dont have to ask him to be jack of all trades, but you do have to ask him to not get beat every time his man makes a move. Not get the ball ripped out of his hands, not get beat on fast breaks, etc. TRADING BASKETS or TRADING THE POSSIBILITY OF BASKETS DOES NOT HELP OUR TEAM.
Thats like betting and saying if I only lose 5 dollars instead of 10 every hour Im doing good.
Vegas Loves you guys!!!
April 17th, 2010 at 2:49 pm
@TradeTP - In a magical dream world of fans’ imaginations, of course they’d play TD, Dice, Blair and Mahinmi full 48 minutes apiece without ever needing to use Bonner. But realistically, they can’t log 48 minutes each, they can’t match up with everyone, and none can shoot 3s better than Bonner. Giving Bonner 15-20 minutes per game will suffice I think, may be more if his shots are going in or if the Spurs are in dire need of some offence.
Blair’s a rookie so I don’t think Pop will use him that much unless he performs surprisingly well in the POs, and Mahinmi probably won’t see any minutes. The guy saw less than 200 minutes this season - that’s less than Temple received in SA alone. Why would Pop use him now, esp. in the POs? Giving significant minutes to inexperienced young players in the playoffs hoping that they can make an impact, now that’s high-risk gambling.
April 17th, 2010 at 4:10 pm
More or less high risk than signing McDyess? or letting 4/17 career three shooting Bonner play?
To me its disgusting how Bonner has been in the pros for 4-5 years and hasnt gotten any stronger, quicker, tougher, better defender, ball handler, etc.
Waste.
April 17th, 2010 at 4:31 pm
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