Thursday, April 22nd, 2010...10:20 am
Tiago Splitter and the Spurs’ playoff rotation
The smart folks at SpursTalk are following the international press, which is giving positive, but subtle, indicators that Tiago Splitter is closer than previously expected to joining the San Antonio Spurs. This on the heels of the uber-reliable Johnny Ludden’s recent proclamation that the Spurs are growing more confident in their ability to sign Splitter this summer. Having already extended Manu Ginobili, the Spurs could do nothing better this offseason than to secure the services of Splitter, as the current Mavs-Spurs series gives clear indication.
Over at Mathletics, our friend Wayne Winston has provided a delectable buffet of Mavs-Spurs Game 2 adjusted plus minus observations. Hurry on over, and take note:
In this series the Spurs have played 13 points better than average series and the Mavs 7 points better than average. When Manu, Duncan, McDyess, and Jefferson are on the court with Hill or Parker the Spurs are +25 points in 38 minutes (playing 40 points better than average). This combo was also great in the regular season, so we see history repeating itself….
…Spurs still need to do better with Duncan out. In regular season Blair, Manu,Hill Mason and McDyess was ok (5 points better than average) so it might be worth a shot. In regular season Blair Manu Hill Jefferson and Bonner was great (35 points better than average) but this lineup has stumbled so far. I would try Blair Manu Parker Jefferson Bonner . This has been hardly used (24 minutes in regular season, 3 points better than average), but it is worth a shot.
What does this have to do with Tiago Splitter? Everything, and more.
Tim Duncan played incredibly effective defense last night, but his career-worn knees increasingly limit his ability to defend in one-on-one situations. No lift. His lateral speed is slower than in the past. Etc.
Antonio McDyess is a similar study. He too played exceptionally good defense on Dirk Nowitzki last night, but it’s difficult to imagine that McDyess has more than, at most, one more decent postseason in his legs. Don’t expect McDyess to carry a heavy load next season. Those years are past.
And then there is the problem of super rookie DeJuan Blair. Namely, he’s short. His height is not always an issue, but against teams that feature legitimate size in the post (Mavericks, Lakers) he’s a problematic play for Gregg Popovich. John Hollinger picked up the question of DeJuan Blair’s place in the Spurs’ rotation early this afternoon, and his words are appropriate here.
Blair is listed as a 6-7 power forward, but effectively his position is center. If you’ll notice, they never play him and Duncan at the same time because it screws up the spacing — so he’s basically Duncan’s backup at center, which limits him to about 10 minutes a night. The fact he couldn’t make two-foot shots last night didn’t help him either.
Tiago Splitter is a solution-or, at least, a partial solution-to these issues.
Splitter is an ideal defender against players such as Dirk Nowitzki. He’s a suitable pick and roll mate for Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and George Hill. Splitter can play high-low with Tim Duncan. He’s a perfect match for San Antonio.
One assumes that the Spurs have given up on Ian Mahinmi, but I hope not. A regular season rotation (one that actually allows Tim Duncan rest) of Duncan, Splitter, Blair, Matt Bonner and Mahinmi looks nice on paper.
After last night’s Spurs-Mavericks game, the TNT crew carried out the tired refrain that this postseason is a last hurrah for the Spurs. But I’m not at all convinced of that. By adding Splitter, the Spurs would continue their practice of reloading on the sly.
Bang. Bang.
Put differently, a Splitter-Duncan front court would allow players like Bonner, Mahinmi, and Blair to thrive within better defined roles. And the Spurs would no longer have to worry about Antonio McDyess and his proverbial tank. Tiago Splitter is nothing for the Spurs, if not a big bag of solutions.
58 Comments
April 22nd, 2010 at 10:35 am
I have not seen Splitter play but if all the statemenst about him are true I am excited about the news. This would really help the Spurs because he will truly be able to fill the shoes of Duncan when he is on the bench. As for Blair I am not worried. If anyone has really watched his game he can become a very outstanding powerforward. He needs to work on his midrange jumper and ball skills. He is very athletic and I am sure he can develope a good midrange game. Blair brings some good energy to the floor when he is out there so I am excited to see him develope. Go Spurs Go!
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:03 am
I love how Splitter’s number is 21. Foreshadow much?
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:09 am
I am from Brazil, and watched Splitter play before he went over to Europe…. he is a solid player, he’s about 6′11/7 foot, long arms, a good defender… he’s on the skinny side though, so i don’t know if he would get pushed around by bigger guys like Bynum…. the NBA player that i think is most comparable to him as far as body build and game style is Lamarcus Aldridge. I don’t think he will ever be an all-star, but i do think he could be a solid starting center for us, and he’ll definitely help our defense!
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:13 am
Tim,
I love this guy (as if I haven’t stated enough here). I recently was in New Zealand for work/play and Tiago actually had some fans down under who appreciate his skills. (of all places, NZ?)
I’ve watched some video of him and I get the sense he just knows how to ball…and ball well.
Something to look forward to.
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:16 am
On second thought, maybe a better comparison in the NBA would be Andris Biedrins.
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:19 am
Yeah, we really need Tiago. Without Timmy & Dice, we really have no respectable inside presence defensively. Blair is actually ~6′5.5″ according to draftexpress.com, and I’ve seen him next to Manu a few times; he’s obviously shorter. I really hope Mahinmi figures out how to play without fouling. That’s the main thing holding him back, IMO.
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:19 am
Adding McDyess as a 7th big to your rotation isn’t a terrible option if we think we can really strengthen the SF spot through our D-League projects and our # 20 pick.
Let’s say RJ and Dice aren’t traded and return. Hill, Manu, and Parker can play 96 minutes a game (32 mpg each at the guards). One of Jerrells, Hairston, Temple, or a second round pick could easily give you enough minutes at small-wing to lower Parker and Manu to regular season minutes.
So what about large-wing? RJ, #20 pick rookie, M. Williams, Hairston, and Gee. Temple is long enough to guard some 3’s or large-wings as well. Plus there is always the triple headed Hill, Manu, and Parker lineup that we are seeing against Dallas to give RJ rest. All of those players are relatively cheap too.
So my other 8 potential roster spots after Dice joins your 6 bigs: Parker, Manu, Hill, RJ, Temple, Hairston, #20 Pick, and let Gee and M. Williams fight it out in summer league/preseason for the 15th roster spot. If Gee and Williams both show well, Hairston could become more expendable, but I don’t see it.
Subject to change, and trading Dice is a good option if Splitter comes over.
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:23 am
Splitter is like Varejao with post moves.
That’s a VERY good thing.
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:41 am
they shouldn’t have traded scola away
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:43 am
Good points here (and in the comments), but personally I don’t see SanAn carrying Ian next year. Pop pretty much played 4 bigs this year, with some scraps thrown to Ian and Theo.
Next year, I could definitely see him putting Splitter in there too, and resting Dice and Timmy more. But thats a crowded frountcourt, so why keep Ian around when there are cheaper project guys available? I’d be surprised if he’s better than Dice next year.
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:44 am
Indeed. Anything close to Varejao would be big.
And I agree - if Splitter is indeed as good as advertised (I think he is - he was a lottery pick in the two drafts he pulled out of), our window could very well be longer than anyone anticipated.
I think our future is brighter than most think.
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:45 am
Bringing over Splitter would likely take up our entire MLE. From what I’ve heard, he’s absolutely worth it, but I think that probably prices us out of re-signing Bonner for next year unless he’s willing to take the veteran’s min. to stay. Again, I think that’s an upgrade we should make if it comes down to that choice, but I’m not sure that we can count Bonner as a likely member of next year’s rotation if we indeed are getting Splitter.
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:50 am
@ Joe
I think we could offer Bonner the BAE.
@ ruth bader ginobili
If Splitter seriously cuts into Dice’s role, Ian is a much better option from a cap perspective (1:6). Trading Dice could net us a draft pick or SF depth which would be a much greater need with Splitter on the roster and Manu already under contract.
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:55 am
@BlaseE — Good point, I hadn’t thought about that.
April 22nd, 2010 at 12:03 pm
The Spurs of 2010 can really make it to the nba finals. The last meanigful games they played during the season shows that they are a supreme team when playing with playoff ferocity. They won games at cleveland, boston , and La lakers, nuggets, etc… ;Tim’s diet before the season has paid off, and having dejuan Blair, mcdyess and Jeferson has helped alot. Jeferson is an all star caliber player he knows the playoffs very well he went to 2 dissapointing finals when he was with new jersey nets, beware spurs haters we now have a 4 option in Richard Jeferson.!!!!;)
April 22nd, 2010 at 12:03 pm
McDyess was awesome last night! He guarded Dirk adequately, back-tapped a lot of rebounds, fought hard. I never saw that from him in the regular season. Maybe he really does save his best for the playoffs..
April 22nd, 2010 at 12:05 pm
Another reason that I’m very excited about Marcus Williams and Garrett Temple. These guys can play good spot minutes during the regular season and will be cheap during the off-season.
April 22nd, 2010 at 12:05 pm
Three years from now the Spurs will be in the playoffs and the depth of analysis will be “they’re an old team trying to make on final run but I don’t think they have enough youth or depth.” This will be said regardless of what the roster looks like, what seeding they have or how old their competitors rosters are. Since only one team can win the title very season, if it’s not the Spurs it allows “experts” to say they didn’t win because of their age. Further analysis would require them to do work and who has the time when you can be running your mouth on TV.
April 22nd, 2010 at 12:08 pm
Our 20th pick is going to cost us about $1.4 million next year.
Gee, Jerrells, and Temple would each cost ~.76 million. Hairston’s salary would be ~.86 million.
I’m not sure what Mahinmi would cost to keep.
April 22nd, 2010 at 12:09 pm
I may be wrong but I believe we have Bonner’s bird rights. The only concern resigning him is willingness to pay tax dollars.
April 22nd, 2010 at 12:43 pm
I’ve only seen some Youtube clips of TIAGO, but I’m impressed. By impressed I mean he is exactly what the SPURS need, a big body. I hope he comes over.
Plus, he just looks like a SPUR.
I also hope they keep IAN. I still think he could have been useful if they would have played him at the beginning of this season. At the very least he could have given 11 minutes like BLAIR.
He could have contributed like IBAKA has for OKC.
If they get SPLITTER then next season should be fun.
April 22nd, 2010 at 12:47 pm
@junierizzle
I can’t figure out when Ian should’ve been playing though. We can see that Blair is more talented than him, so we should be playing Blair as much as possible so that we can get him integrated. Ian seemed more like injury insurance. If we get Splitter, he’ll be even less on the list. It’s sad, but I don’t think we’ll see him on the Spurs next year.
April 22nd, 2010 at 12:55 pm
Just googled Splitter on youtube. He seems to be a bit soft..
I’m not convinced he’d be any better than someone like Darko Milicic. But that’s just from a 10-minute amateur highlight video.
April 22nd, 2010 at 1:26 pm
Congrats to Hill for placing third in the MIP voting (even though that award is a sham).
http://www.nba.com/2010/news/04/22/MIP/?ls=iref:nbahpt1
@Junierizzle
I don’t see where we could’ve given Ian any more minutes. He was already stuck behind Duncan, Blair, McDyess and Bonner. I don’t think there’s enough minutes unless it’s a blowout. I’m sad to say, it doesn’t look like he’ll be in silver and black next year.
April 22nd, 2010 at 1:48 pm
I’ve seen Splitter playing hundreds of times, really. He’s the best center playing in Europe. That’s for sure. But he is not John Kennedy. Sorry, I mean, he’s a center, not a power forward. No way he can defend Nowitzki. Two meters outside the paint and he got lost.
But you are right about pick and roll. Even more. He graduated with honors in that degree. Time and again.
Disclosure: I’m a big fan of the team in which he plays right now. So I prefer him to stay here. But life is life and I guess sooner or later he will go to San Antonio. Spurs really need him.
April 22nd, 2010 at 1:58 pm
@Jesse blanchard - this is Bonner’s third year as a Spur, so yeah Spurs should have his bird rights.
I don’t know about Splitter’s potential as a defender. I’ve heard he isn’t physical enough to defend some of the legit bigs in the NBA. He certainly is long so I guess he can defend with his length to a certain degree but I don’t see how he can replace McDyess (I do agree his years as a decent player are numbered) on defensive roles. It’s a damn shame Mahinmi project didn’t work out. It would’ve solved a lot of issues had he panned out like everyone had hoped.
April 22nd, 2010 at 3:15 pm
Let’s get some actual words from the Spurs on this matter before we pop our collective boners over adding him to the roster. Pretty much the only way to add him is to offer him close to if not all of the MLE…and then the Lux Tax hit will be HUGE (provided the RJ sticks around)
I would think the Peter Holt is going to push very hard to avoid the lock-out, but his compadres just might think otherwise…I know that seems like a non-sequitter, but it’s really not
April 22nd, 2010 at 4:10 pm
I hate to sound cynical, but wouldn’t this be like counting our chickens before the eggs hatch?
I’m really excited with all the buzz about Splitter, and, like all the Spurs fans, I want a high-quality, high impact player that would help continue the Duncan Dynasty and maybe even the Spurs Dominance in the NBA, but unless he’s introduced to the media by Holt and Pops, is given a Spurs jersey and a contract is signed, I wouldn’t be holding my breath and pointing at the other NBA teams while singing “You’re doomed/You’re doomed.” All the things we hear right now are merely rumors and hearsays, so I think it’s pretty much like saying that Wade or Bosh might be playing as a Spur next season.
I must admit I was quite disappointed when Splitter opted to stay in Europe last time, but I couldn’t really blame him. So, I’m lowering my expectations this time.
I’m more excited about us getting the 20th pick this coming draft. While who we’d be picking up would be more or less also a hearsay, the thought of being in a position of drafting “better” players than, say, Blair or Hill (and these players are definitely NOT busts) could be really exciting.
April 22nd, 2010 at 5:58 pm
They need to hold onto Bonner because his situational value is hard to replace. Even though he only is really needed for small amounts of playtime, finding a quality shooter at 6′10 is tough.
Add splitter and you suddenly don’t have enough space for Ian. Sure he has great potential, but how long do you wait for it to bloom? If they can pick him up at the minimum it’s a no brainer though. He doesn’t hurt you just by being on the roster.
April 22nd, 2010 at 6:46 pm
Word is that Splitter is soft guys…Fades under pressure and doesnt return agreesive play.
We need a beast in the paint. A blue collar worker with a nasty streak. No more choir boys to add to the ones we already have.
Time to start bringing in ballers. We need a guy like Perkins of the Celtics or Noah of the Bulls.
Duncan wont play forever…
April 22nd, 2010 at 6:58 pm
@Rey:
LOL. We’ve been papered.. being excited by a 20th overall pick. But you there make lots of sense.
April 22nd, 2010 at 7:58 pm
i am all for speculating when/if Splitter is going to play next year for the Spurs. but our team is still making a run THIS year. i think that if they do win it (first obstacle, Mavs) that it will only help the chances of bringing Splitter over.
If Splitter comes over we cannot keep Mahinmi and Bonner. Duncan, Blair, and McDyess have contracts on the books; add in Splitter. if we bring back Ian and Matt we would have way too many big men. so i’ll settle for McDyess and Ian over Bonner
lots to consider, but here is what i am hoping:
1) RJ and McDyess play great and help Spurs win 5th championship in 2010!
2) RJ opts out and signs a 4 to 5 year deal at $8 million a year
3) Splitter signs for full MLE (i think Marion signed for that last year)
3) Ian ($1.5 million/year) and Bogans ($1 million/year) are resigned at modest rates
2010-11 lineup:
PG: Parker, Temple, Gee
SG: Manu, Hill
SF: RJ, Bogans, Hairston
PF: Duncan, Blair
C: McDyess, Splitter, Mahinmi
this would be a very competitive line up at about $70 million per year (if RJ opts out and resigns; if not, $77 million for 2010-2011 year, plus cap penalty)
April 22nd, 2010 at 8:28 pm
I don’t think Mahinmi will be back. He just isn’t that good. I’d rather take on a new project or pick a player that can actually contribute.
April 22nd, 2010 at 8:34 pm
…………before everyone creams their jeans and starts making roster plans about this dude, let’s just see how he plays next year.
April 22nd, 2010 at 8:47 pm
………..if he comes over to the states
April 22nd, 2010 at 10:04 pm
Not that I agree w/ Ballhog entirely, but the trust of his ideas do bring up a good point:
How does Splitter mesh w/Blair? if they’re our future frontcourt, doesn’t one of them need to have some defensive abilities outside the paint?
Blair is often justly compared to Barkley. Barkley worked best with centers who had a wide, wide shooting range. If Splitter doesn’t that’s something Pop’s gotta figure out.
April 22nd, 2010 at 10:12 pm
Jesse blanchard
April 22nd, 2010 at 12:09 pm
“I may be wrong but I believe we have Bonner’s bird rights. The only concern resigning him is willingness to pay tax dollars.”
I think you’re right about that.
Rey
April 22nd, 2010 at 4:10 pm
I’m with you, Rey. I remain skeptical of the possible Splitter acquisition.
“They need to hold onto Bonner because his situational value is hard to replace. Even though he only is really needed for small amounts of playtime, finding a quality shooter at 6′10 is tough.”
Bushka
April 22nd, 2010 at 5:58 pm
I agree. It might be tough to upgrade at this important role position.
BALLHOG
April 22nd, 2010 at 6:46 pm
“Time to start bringing in ballers. We need a guy like Perkins of the Celtics or Noah of the Bulls.
Duncan wont play forever…”
I’m not sure either whether Splitter will be enough to effectively challenge teams like Cleveland in the next couple of years, and it is certainly not the answer to the prospect of Duncan’s eventual retirement. The problem is, it’s unlikely that either of the guys you mentioned are “available”, and even if you look to get guys that “may” be available that are anywhere near their class, you’re left with confronting significant trade possibilities, which would inevitably involve trading players that everyone wants to hold onto around here, “come hell or high water.” That’s the reality. Unless, of course, we get REAL lucky in the draft NEXT year.
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:54 pm
Excellent piece, as ever. You guys are really getting a gem in ol’ Tiago; he will surely be missed in Spain.
April 23rd, 2010 at 1:33 am
If you bring in Splitter and move McDyess, you better be getting back another big. Otherwise, the Spurs are still short up front due to depth. Dice and Duncan now get more time off, but you don’t want to weaken what’s already currently their weakest area of depth.
April 23rd, 2010 at 4:19 am
Go Spurs Go!!
April 23rd, 2010 at 5:19 am
manu announced in a argentine newspaper that he won’t play in turkey
http://www.canchallena.com/1257299
April 23rd, 2010 at 5:34 am
Nice article and discussion, everyone.
On a semi-related note (and an admittedly strange one to bring up in the middle of a heated playoff rivalry): Has anyone looked much at what will be available in the draft? With all the UGs declaring this year, it looks to be a very deep draft and the Spurs have their highest 1st-round pick in years (#20).
It’s worth a look: DraftExpress.com has a preliminary mock draft with the Spurs getting Gordon Hayward, which might be interesting. But as others have mentioned repeatedly, we need help up front. And right behind Hayward in this mock draft is Florida State’s 7′1″ Solomon Alabi. Or alternately, the Spurs could trade out of the 1st round to pick up a pair of early 2nd-round picks. That would allow them to draft someone like Jarvis Varnado-imagine him playing defense next to Tim!-and still get two more players, who in a more conventional year might not have been available. For instance, the Knicks have picks 8 and 9 in the 2nd round and Miami has 11 and 12, where Varnado and Jerome Jordan are projected. A trade with either team would allow the Spurs to get a first-round quality big man like Varnado, a backup PG with their own pick (19), and still have a pick to gamble on someone else (Craig Brackins, for instance) or to use to stash an overseas talent in need of development.
So if Splitter doesn’t work out, I think we still have an excellent chance at getting a PF or C this year. In fact, based on what Iñigo has written, they might want to look at drafting Varnado even if they do get Splitter.
Tim
April 23rd, 2010 at 6:09 am
@Tim in Surrey:
My understanding is that NBA teams cannot go two consecutive years without a first round pick. Because the Spurs traded away last year’s 25th pick (to the Thunder who then traded it to the Mavs), if they trade their 1st round pick this year, it will have to be for another 1st rounder.
April 23rd, 2010 at 8:12 am
Truefan:
My understanding of that rule is that they cannot trade away picks for consecutive years in the same trade, or in the same year or something like that. but recently there have been teams who have gone consecutive years without a first rounder.
April 23rd, 2010 at 8:39 am
@Pablo, six bigs is not too many on a 15 man roster, especially when two are old and need nights off, one is 6′5″ and another one lives at the 3 point line. We started this year with six bigs, plus Haislip.
Gee’s a wing, not a point. He’s a young RJ.
April 23rd, 2010 at 8:46 am
The rule is a team cannot trade consecutive first round picks. A team can, however, trade a first one year and then draft and trade the player in the next draft.
April 23rd, 2010 at 9:51 am
I still think the Spurs should attempt (even if it sounds far fetched) to trade for Chris Bosh by sending Jefferson and the rights to Tiago Splitter to Toronto in a sign and trade. Chris Bosh would like to live in Texas being from Dallas.
That way Duncan can be the mentor and play a backseat role to Bosh. Maybe Duncan plays an extra year or two as a result. We get a shot blocker and a good passer for the high low game with Duncan. Bosh can pick and pop in the screen and roll. Bosh is also a good FT shooter.
Is this Tiago Splitter that good?
April 23rd, 2010 at 9:59 am
Krista has the rule right.
As far as the potential fit between Blair/Splitter/Ian/whoever, I think all we really need to focus on is bringing in young talent at this point. We can sort the rest out later. Talent first, work out the fit later.
@Ballhog -
Guys like Perkins and Noah don’t grow on trees. I would love to have guys like them, but where we’ve drafted in recent years, they’re hard to come by (we’ve tried w/ Ian, Splitter, and Blair to get those type of guys). And I know Perkins went in the late 1st, but he also came straight out of high school. If he had been forced to go to college like they are now, he would have gone much higher.
April 23rd, 2010 at 10:16 am
@lvmainman
That would be a dream scenario. But, if Bosh leaves (and I think he will), Toronto goes into long-term, rebuilding mode. They’re going to demand young players (like a Jeff Green, Mike Beasley, Blake Griffin, etc), picks, and avoid all expensive, long term deals in any sign and trade.
I think Toronto is going to get better offers than we can potentially make. I could see Houston, OKC, Miami, and the Clippers making better offers.
The only way I could see us making a deal Toronto would consider would be something like RJ (for salary reasons), Blair, George Hill, and picks. Anything’s possible, but very unlikely.
April 23rd, 2010 at 10:57 am
i don’t think we gave ian much of a chance this year. he would have undoubtedly had some struggles, but we never gave him a good look. i think ian put together some nice games towards the end of the year. getting minnesota’s big’s in foul trouble, contributing to a near win against the mavs without tim and manu, and dominating garbage time with almost a point per minute in games against orlando and golden state. fouls have been an issue, but i think the worst we could do is let him go and watch him blossom. he could at least fill out our bench. i predict some strides in the summer for ian. we should start moving forward. trade dice, let ian play.
April 23rd, 2010 at 12:56 pm
@Daniel
Splitter is like Varejao with post moves.
That’s a VERY good thing.
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Agreed. This comparison has been made by Hubie Brown, too. If so then all Spurs fans should be very excited to see hem come over.
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@spursdan
They shouldn’t have traded scola away
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Absolutely but that’s water under the bridge. Something that can’t be taken back so time to move on.
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@Jordan
Another reason that I’m very excited about Marcus Williams and Garrett Temple. These guys can play good spot minutes during the regular season and will be cheap during the off-season.
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Temple - yes - Marcus - no. Marcus needs to gain significant weight in order to play in the NBA. He has the body of a Shaun Livingston…ie a oothpick…andwont be able to play bigger 3s or 2s regardless of how “smooth” he looks in the D-league. In order to play with his type of body in the NBA he needs serious hops, defensive stoppage or unreal scoring ability. He has none of the hthree IMHO. Gee is coming since he has a NBA type body but needs more work on his D.
April 23rd, 2010 at 1:09 pm
@Iñigo
I’ve seen Splitter playing hundreds of times, really. He’s the best center playing in Europe. That’s for sure. But he is not John Kennedy. Sorry, I mean, he’s a center, not a power forward. No way he can defend Nowitzki. Two meters outside the paint and he got lost.
But you are right about pick and roll. Even more. He graduated with honors in that degree. Time and again.
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Agreed. I’ve seen enough of him on youtube and in the ‘08 FIBA tournament in Vegas to know that he belongs in the paint. If he trys to play Dirk away from his comfort zone he will get toasted. He hasn’t the lateral movement to handle Dirk or any other player or that type that far from the paint.
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@BALLHOG
Word is that Splitter is soft guys…Fades under pressure and doesnt return agreesive play.
We need a beast in the paint. A blue collar worker with a nasty streak. No more choir boys to add to the ones we already have.
Time to start bringing in ballers. We need a guy like Perkins of the Celtics or Noah of the Bulls.
Duncan wont play forever…
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I hope you’re wrong but maybe we could get a brain transplant done on him and put Blair’s in his skull.
It will work… I saw it in a movie
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@pablo
I am all for speculating when/if Splitter is going to play next year for the Spurs. but our team is still making a run THIS year. i think that if they do win it (first obstacle, Mavs) that it will only help the chances of bringing Splitter over.
If Splitter comes over we cannot keep Mahinmi and Bonner. Duncan, Blair, and McDyess have contracts on the books; add in Splitter. if we bring back Ian and Matt we would have way too many big men. so i’ll settle for McDyess and Ian over Bonner
lots to consider, but here is what i am hoping:
1) RJ and McDyess play great and help Spurs win 5th championship in 2010!
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Ditto
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2) RJ opts out and signs a 4 to 5 year deal at $8 million a year
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I don’t think that is likely with the possible/probable lockout coming in a year. Maybe it does happen but IMO he is worth more in the 5 -6 milllion range than 8. And at 30 I would give him 4 years. Maybe 3 with a team option on the 4th. And with the lockout most likely to happen why would he give up 15 if most teams presently wont give him 30 - 40 mil over x number of years? Most teams aren’t giving out those types of contracts now and that’s one of the reasons that a lockout is looming. $$$$$$$$ and the owners feel they aren’t getting their fair share - read most of what’s to be had . And if RJ does opt out his performance in the POs will determine if he really is worth what you think he is. If this team doesn’t go far due to RJ’s low numbers then he wont get that from Holt or any other owner either IMHO. And what will be the new CBA and how will that effect salaries? Don’t know but that also will have an impact ofn RJ’s future.
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3) Splitter signs for full MLE (i think Marion signed for that last year)
3) Ian ($1.5 million/year) and Bogans ($1 million/year) are resigned at modest rates.
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I really dont see Bogans back next year.
I see Hairston, Temple, Gee, and maybeIan all in training camp with Pop giving Hairston the shot he deserves at the 3. He outplayed Bogans in this year’s preseason and then wasn’t given the chance. Most likely that is due to Pop’s vet preference but next year he will get his shot.
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2010-11 lineup:
PG: Parker, Temple, Gee
SG: Manu, Hill
SF: RJ, Bogans, Hairston
PF: Duncan, Blair
C: McDyess, Splitter, Mahinmi
this would be a very competitive line up at about $70 million per year (if RJ opts out and resigns; if not, $77 million for 2010-2011 year, plus cap penalty)
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That still leaves 2 positions open (assuming that Bogans is gone) and we have the 20th pick in the upcoming draft. Most likely the FO will be targeting a SF/3 so we’ll see what happens.
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@Robert
I don’t think Mahinmi will be back. He just isn’t that good. I’d rather take on a new project or pick a player that can actually contribute.
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I think he will be asked to training camp. He can be signed to a cheap contract IIRC and when on the curt has put up good numbers in limited time. His real problem is he fouls way too much but I think that if given decent minutes he has the ability to learn and correct that. Frankly he might be asked to the Thunder camp since he wont be under contract with the Spurs and Presti was part of the FO that drafted him. And with that young team he has the opportunity to develop with lower expectations. That might be just what he needs to turn into a solid NBA player.
April 23rd, 2010 at 2:04 pm
The spurs will resign Bonner.
In all the above theoretical line ups where sandwich boy is missing, you are also missing any form of shooting from the outside.
I don’t think it’s a case of the spurs can’t live without him at all, but i do think that they will want that option of having a true shooter at the 4 if they need it.
So yeah I don’t see them letting Bonner go without replicating the skill set. When was the last time the spurs didn’t have a stretch 4?
They have auditioned Haislip and Tolliver, searching for the other type of stretch 4 (the athletic one) but so far have not come up with a viable alternative to Mud guts.
I hope Ian stays has a crazy summer league where he overpowers all comers and turns into an athletic intimidator. Don’t think it’s going to happen though.
April 23rd, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Just an addendum.
I know it’s all kinds of crazy to talk about Bosh.
I also know that if he decides to go Toronto will work out a sign and trade with the team he is going to simply because they wont have any other choice.
That said I don’t see them taking back RJ as an expiring. The guy they would want back as an expiring is TP.
Now …..I can’t believe i’m doing this considering my lust for all things TP is well documented….
But they do have some PG’s they don’t like there, and Jarret Jack is a solid player at 5 mill per, and McDyess might be an interesting contract to them because he has one of those wonderful partially guaranteed contracts which you can waive in the final year and get your cap relief early.
Interesting:)
April 23rd, 2010 at 6:55 pm
[...] (Hat tip to reader Gus for the story.) [...]
April 24th, 2010 at 7:40 am
finally someone admits the obvious, blair is too short. i love him, but trading him while his value is high is not a bad idea.
April 25th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
Splitter will not play for the Spurs. Its all about money and the Spurs can’t offer him enough to come to the U.S. I’ve watched clips of him playing and he shows a lot of talent, but he won’t fit in right away at the center slot. Like Blair who is too short, Splitter is too slight to defend the big centers of the NBA. He likes moving down to the wing spots on offense and only goes to the low post when he is playing against shorter defenders. He does have a decent face up shot and move, but can’t put the ball on the floor for more than two bounces. I hope I’m wrong, but Splitter doesn’t seem too interested in coming to the NBA with the money he is earning in Europe. It would be very likely that he’ll get a fat contract extension where he is now. San Antonio won’t be able to match it. We probably will lose several players from this roster, but it won’t free up enough cash. Boy did that Jefferson trade really mess the Spurs up.
April 25th, 2010 at 10:42 pm
i don’t think we gave ian much of a chance this year. he would have undoubtedly had some struggles, but we never gave him a good look. i think ian put together some nice games towards the end of the year. getting minnesota’s big’s in foul trouble, contributing to a near win against the mavs without tim and manu, and dominating garbage time with almost a point per minute in games against orlando and golden state. fouls have been an issue, but i think the worst we could do is let him go and watch him blossom. he could at least fill out our bench. i predict some strides in the summer for ian. we should start moving forward. trade dice, let ian play.
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