Thursday, April 29th, 2010...8:46 pm
San Antonio Spurs 97, Dallas Mavericks 87: George Hill and Manu Ginobili close out the Mavericks
AT&T CENTER-Given a second shot at a closeout game after their disappointing Game 5 loss to the Dallas Mavericks, the only adjustment needed by the San Antonio Spurs between games was to find the energy and focus they lacked on the road.
“Minds are kind of hard to understand sometimes,” Manu Ginobili said. “We went into Game 5 relaxed and we were on our heels the whole game.”
The only clear and collective thought running through the minds of the San Antonio Spurs was how badly they wanted to avoid a return trip to Dallas and a Game 7. After struggling in each of the past two games, Tim Duncan came out aggressive early, scoring seven first quarter points-hitting banks shots, running hooks and generally scoring in every conceivable way except at the free throw line (1-7). But it was his and his teammates collective defense that set the tone.
At every turn there was a defender bumping a Dallas Maverick off their path to the basket, at every shot attempt one or two defenders looking to contest. The San Antonio Spurs set a franchise playoff record by holding the Dallas Mavericks to eight points in the first quarter on 25 percent shooting.
That the 22-8 advantage proved to be not nearly enough is a testament to why Gregg Popovich did not want to see the Dallas Mavericks in a Game 7.
“I hope we never have to play those guys again, I don’t even want to play them in the regular season,” San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said. “Change the rules or whatever you have to do, they’re a hell of a team. We’re even, nobody’s better than anyone else. The whole Western Conference seems to be that way.”
With Dirk Nowitzki saddled with four first half fouls, the last two coming on momentary lapses of judgement while swiping at George Hill, the Mavericks battled back from what was a 41-19 lead on the play of Caron Butler (25 points, 9-18 shooting) and rookie Rodrigue Beaubois (16 points, 7-13 shooting) to trim the Spurs advantage to a manageable 13 points at the half.
In the third quarter, the Mavericks fared even better and when Dirk Nowitzki-who had 15 points in the third quarter and 33 for the game-hit a three-pointer to give his team a one-point lead it appeared all the momentum was in his favor.
“We had an almost perfect 20 minutes and let up the last four minutes of the first half and they started the third quarter hot, making every shot,” Spurs guard Manu Ginobili said. “We didn’t start the third quarter with the right mental approach but we corrected our mistakes and we were able to run a couple times down the court and that helped us execute a little better on offense.”
Immediately after Nowitzki’s shot put the Mavericks up by one, Ginobili had what can only be described as another Manu moment, hitting a three-pointer to regain the lead. Beaubois then missed a layup which led to a Tim Duncan layup in transition.
The Spurs never trailed again, thanks in part to the play of second-year guard George Hill, who is having a breakout season similar to the one Rajon Rondo enjoyed during the Celtics championship run.
Hill failed to hit a field goal in the first half, scoring four points off of free throws. At the half, Gregg Popovich told his “favorite player” to forget about his teammates and go “get his name in the newspaper.”
Hill got going late in the third quarter, hitting an up-and-under move on Jason Kidd, answering a Mavericks layup withe a pull-up jumper and hitting a free throw to keep the Spurs ahead. Hill then hit two corner threes and all four of his field goal attempts in the fourth quarter, scoring 10 of his 21 points.
“You dream about playing in big time games like this that really count and that’s the type of person I am,” George Hill said. “I like to compete, I like the pressure, I like the challenge and things like that.”
A year ago the playoffs were not for George Hill. Now, thanks in large part to Hill, the San Antonio Spurs are heading for the second round.
94 Comments
April 29th, 2010 at 8:51 pm
man I still can’t believe how great we played today! Even with all those missed free throws we still won the game! GO SPURS GO
April 29th, 2010 at 9:02 pm
Ball don’t lie! This team has come together at the right time. Let’s hope they can keep this going!
April 29th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
Whether the Spurs win a 5th championship is in question. However, there is no doubt that from this point onward ,throughout the remainder of these playoffs, the Spurs are once again a serious contender for the championship.
April 29th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
“the Spurs are once again a serious contender for the championship.”
agreed, but if that’s so, there’s basically 3 teams we need to start thinking about how we match up with: LA, cleveland, and orlando.
The suns? not terribly worried.
April 29th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
The series against the suns will be very interesting. If it’s anything like series past, Amare will go nuts with a bunch of 30/20 games but they’ll still go down. We need someone to step up as an enforcer, get them rattled again with a hard foul or two - perfect role for Mahinmi in the 2/3 minutes he might get.
Really need RJ and maybe George Hill to put the clamps on Richardson too, he’s scoring in bunches lately.
April 29th, 2010 at 10:00 pm
This is George Hill’s team now haha
How great is it that the spurs get another chance to take on another rival type team in the playoffs.
Dirk should opt out of his contract and join the spurs. Haha
April 29th, 2010 at 10:03 pm
Hope Popovich doesn’t think that Mason needs to play against the Suns. I hope that Hairston gets activated and gets a chance to play instead of Mason. Hairston should get some of Bogans minutes as well because Hairston can get up and down the floor and attack the rim as well as play good defense.
But I guarantee the Spurs won’t be winning games by holding the Suns under 90 pts. The Suns have too much firepower. 3 of the top 10 3 pt shooters in the NBA play on the Suns. But, they don’t play as good of defense so the Spurs should be able to score easier.
3 days rest until Monday, Go Spurs Go.
April 29th, 2010 at 10:39 pm
This series is perfect for Blair. Suns lack the size that Dallas has. Bonner has had some of his best shooting success against the Suns.
With Hill, you have to cover the corner 3, but if you chase him off of it, he can still hit the shot unlike with Bowen.
You also don’t have the solid defender like Kidd, who was good at swiping at the ball when guys like RJ got to the bucket.
@OliverJ - one thing to add though. Nash can’t hide his defense on Bowen. He’ll have to be matched up with Parker/Hill/RJ.
April 29th, 2010 at 10:51 pm
Spurs beating Mavs is almost better than busting a big n*t.
April 29th, 2010 at 11:06 pm
GREAT WIN! I hate the MAVS, of course they would take the lead after trailing by 22.
Everyone contributed in this series. It was a real team out there. The best thing was the Defense.
I honestly thought that this would be the toughest match up for the SPURS, even over the Lakers.
Now anything can happen.
As far as the SUNS go, just stay on the 3 point shooters. If they’re gonna leave Big ass FRYE wide open hitting threes then its’ going to be tough. They can shoot the three because no one is gaurding them. They aren’t like the MAGIC that can still hit 3s with a man in there face. Stay on FRYE and Dudley and they are non factors.
I think they can pretty much play them like the MAVS. Don’t turn the ball over cover Amare on one, like DIRK. and cover the 3 ball.
Have a stress free weekend everybody. I know I will.
April 29th, 2010 at 11:18 pm
Hill shot 7/8 after missing his first four shots. Impressive.
April 30th, 2010 at 12:12 am
Phoebus
April 29th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
“The suns? not terribly worried.”
You’re making a mistake to overlook them.
They’re our next opponent. That’s where ALL the focus should be.
lvmainman
April 29th, 2010 at 10:03 pm
“Hope Popovich doesn’t think that Mason needs to play against the Suns. I hope that Hairston gets activated and gets a chance to play instead of Mason. Hairston should get some of Bogans minutes as well because Hairston can get up and down the floor and attack the rim as well as play good defense.”
You’re right about that.
“But I guarantee the Spurs won’t be winning games by holding the Suns under 90 pts.”
Correct. The goal should be < 1oo. We want to score at about our avg. or better, and hold them to 10 points or more under their avg. If we can do a good job controlling the tempo, we should be okay in this regard.
"But, they don’t play as good of defense so the Spurs should be able to score easier."
Actually, that's a bit of a misconception. The Suns are tied with the Spurs for 11th in the NBA in opponent FG%, at 45.2%. And no, you can't look at points per game given up because the Suns are an up tempo team, and led the league in scoring, so of course they're going to give up more points. But they can defend, and opposing FG% is the best marker for that in this case. Plus, their point differential is +4.9; ours is +5.1.
April 30th, 2010 at 12:20 am
Looked at the 3 matchups vs this year’s Suns, the Spurs never held them under 110 pts in any of the 3 games. We won the one game when Richardson missed the game tying dunk. Spurs got blown out in both games in Phoenix.
Suns have 3 of the top 10 3 pt shooters in the NBA. Suns don’t have lame shooters like Marion, Kidd, and Haywood.
This will not be an easy series.
April 30th, 2010 at 12:20 am
junierizzle
April 29th, 2010 at 11:06 pm
“I honestly thought that this would be the toughest match up for the SPURS, even over the Lakers. Now anything can happen.”
Have to disagree. LA is our toughest match-up, Mavs the 2nd toughest. The road to the finals still goes through LA.
Of course, the Suns are our most immediate obstacle. If they shoot well, they can be pretty scary, because their “D” is considerably more stingy than in the past. We’ve still got a tough road ahead in the Wild West!
April 30th, 2010 at 12:42 am
Anthony McDyess also deserves a pat on the back for his staunch defense on Dirk, plus those two timely jumpers in the third period to stymie the Mavs’ uprising. This series has shown why he’s worth his weight in gold.
And while the Suns have lost to the Spurs in the playoffs four straight times, we agree that looking beyond them would be a big mistake, which, fortunately, Pop is not going to make.
We figure that this semis series will also go to six games - in San Antonio’s favor, of course.
April 30th, 2010 at 12:46 am
lvmainman
April 30th, 2010 at 12:20 am
“Looked at the 3 matchups vs this year’s Suns, the Spurs never held them under 110 pts in any of the 3 games.”
“This will not be an easy series.”
I agree. Just remember, our team defense has reached another level since we last played the Suns. It has just recently come close to peaking against the Mavs. Dice is an entirely different defensive player than he was during the regular season. He must have been saving his old legs! The rest of the team has upped their “D” a notch as well.
Also, in our last game against the Suns, on 4/7, when we gave up 112 pts. in a loss: it was the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road, TP was in just his 2nd game back after breaking his hand, we shot 24% from three, and had 18 turnovers, which totally fed the Suns transition game. In contrast, we had 8 turnovers tonight, holding Dallas to 87. With 8-10 turnovers against the Suns, we should be able to hold them to 97. That’s doable, and it’s what we should shoot for in every game. It would help if we shot decent, and not TOO frequently from three.
April 30th, 2010 at 12:55 am
Also, Mavs averaged 97 pts./game against us during the regular season. We held them to 92 pts./game in the playoffs. With the Suns, TEMPO is HUGE. Gotta win that battle.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:06 am
We are not even close to the same team that played the Suns in the regular season.
If Lopez is not back up to pace they are going to have an out of their mind time trying to matchup with Duncan.
Look the key with the suns as previously mentioned by J.H is the tempo.
If we play dominant half court ball and chase the shooters off the three point line we’ll have a very good chance at this series.
I love how we match up right now though. Blair can be really handy here, no way in the world Frye can handle him in the low post, and he’ll eat him alive on the offensive boards so we can hopefully get Tim some rest.
Bonner actually matchs up here well because he doesn’t have to worry about Frye slashing to the hoop when its’ subs vs subs.
Very very excited. Should be a fun time.
April 30th, 2010 at 2:05 am
It seems the spurs are destined to always meet phonix on our playoff road, and I wouldnt have it any other way, suns-spurs series are awesome *has Tim’s clutch 3 flashbacks*
April 30th, 2010 at 2:08 am
Unfortunately i was at work so my only access to the game was the refresh button on my phone. Reading the play by play made it seem like tony parker had perhaps the biggest role in the 4th. He was gettin boards and hittin mid rangers.
April 30th, 2010 at 4:46 am
All these rookies…Good reading though….
Enjoymnet experienced by eliminating this Mavs team is awsome…Not my favorite group.
As for the game…Entire Spurs team and coaching staff should give George Hill thier game check.
Mcdyess. According to many BB geniouses here at the 48…Dice was a bust. Just came to the Spurs and suddenly forgot how to play. Glad that BS has been cleared up. His defensive effort against Dirk speaks for itself,.
And oh yes, I wouldnt leave without making it clear. Pop almost blew another game. Thanks to the mastermind coach, Spur nation spent most of the game with our Testees jammed up into our stomachs. Bogans made an appearance and I almost passed a stone. Brutal stuff….
Besides, lil Roddy came in and took the Spurs to school. It was certainly the cause of severe pucker factor. Phoenix will be no punk.
Hope Pop comes correct, gets Malik out of street clothes, and pencils Blair in for 20 plus minutes per game in this series. May as well leave Mason at Home. He should be a liilte pooped from all of his effort this season to play himself out of the league.
Rocking Win….
April 30th, 2010 at 5:11 am
Three words: Dallas, Go Fish.
April 30th, 2010 at 5:12 am
In the Suns Blazers series Phoenix willed the Blazers to shoot the 3 from above the free-throw line extended - often not even putting a hand up to challenge the shot. Long shots lead to long rebounds and transition offense and easy scores for the suns. The most underrated thing about the corner 3 is the statistical likely-hood a miss will be rebounded somewhere close to the baseline and thus doesn’t play into transition offense as well. We can limit our exposure to the Sun’s transition game by being patient on the ball and scoring in the paint or the corner. I think this is one of the reason’s why we’re had such success against the Suns in the past (along with our ability to stick to a game plan and not get suckered into their tempo).
April 30th, 2010 at 5:16 am
I am enjoying the warm glow of victory the day after. Feels great to have beaten the Mavs…retribution.
Here is a great article by Adrian W at Yahoo.com.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AsDO3SWhUBXeGXexEgLt_cW8vLYF?slug=aw-mavsspurs043010
April 30th, 2010 at 5:28 am
DeJuan Bear has a PER of 26+ in his 9 minutes a game in the postseaon good for 7th best in the league. It is Almost all of which is from his ridiculous rebound rates (defensive 25, offensive 28.9). Will he get any burn against the suns?
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?seasontype=3&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fhollinger%2fstatistics%3fseasontype%3d3
April 30th, 2010 at 5:30 am
@Tanjavur good link. I think the commentors (myself included) should pass links along more often than we do. A lot of good Spurs reading out there.
@Ballhog should Ian have played more last night?
April 30th, 2010 at 5:38 am
Seems like the team was channeling the Spurs of old, as in great defense and horrible free throw shooting. Could have done without the second half of that equation.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:00 am
I look for RJ, Georgie, and TP to go crazy, scoring in transition in the second round.
@ Grego, I completely agree that Nash will be exposed as a more of a defensive liability than during the past Spurs-Suns series.
Sweet 2nd round, how I missed you last year!
April 30th, 2010 at 6:03 am
Feels so good to beat the Mavs. Dirk is such a classy individual; as much as I hate playing him, he’s a great competitor and a humble individual. Go Spurs.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:07 am
Also, while Manu and George Hill carried us (and TP hit some big shots), Timmy’s defense with those blocked shots really helped us. 17pts, 10rbs, 5 assists, 3 blocks and 3 steals. Solid line from TD.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:17 am
“get his name in the newspaper”
Classic.
As much as we’ve criticized Pop this year, he knows this team better than anyone. He knows how to motivate our guys, knows when to rest them, and knows when to get after them. Even when he kept tinkering and we struggled during the regular season, the team really came together at the right time (albeit slightly later than anyone would have liked). And in the big scheme of things, that’s all that matters - playing our best basketball in the playoffs (kudos to Jim Henderson who touched on this point in an earlier post).
Sure, he’s driven us crazy with all the weird lineups, but all that matters in basketball is the end result. Pretty or ugly, a win is a win.
There isn’t a coach in the game I would rather go to war with.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:18 am
Jim Henderson,
Actually the Spurs are a much better defensive team than Phoenix. We give up 104.5 points per 100 possesions vs. 110.2 for Phoenix. The problem is they are by far the best offensive team scoring 115.3 per 100. The next best is Atlanta with 111.9. San Antonio scores 110. So our effeciency differential is 5.5, and Phoenix has a differential of 5.1. These are two close teams, with San Antonio having a slight edge and Phoenix having home court advantage. This series worries me.
I do agree with you about the pace. The reason they are so efficient on offense is the way they get out and run. I will not be happy if we start settling for a lot of long jumpers that lead to long rebounds and fast breaks for the Suns. We need to score inside and then get back on D.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:22 am
@NL
Agreed. I have nothing but respect for Dirk. He’s a classy, gutsy player. Doesn’t make excuses, doesn’t blame the refs, etc. He’ll be the first to take the blame for this loss. I have a ton of respect for him.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:32 am
This was Hill’s break-out series. He’s practically led the team on the offensive end in two games. That is amazing for a second year guy in such a hard fought series between veteran teams. I think think the guy will be an all star caliber player for his career. And he looks like he’s got that Spurs ice running through his veins. I’m really glad to see that he can be the scorer we wanted RJ to be when RJ has an off night. Actually, he can be the scorer we want Manu, TD, or TP to be when they’re off.
Though this was a great win, I do have a couple of concerns going forward. The smaller concern is that we haven’t seen Tony Parker do the stuff that’s made him great over his career, viz. attack the rim and score layups in the half court. Though he didn’t get too many points, 8 assists, 0 TO’s, 2 stls, and 7 rebounds and all great numbers for him. But I want to see him attacking the rim. His ability to do that was kryptonite to the Suns in 2008. Nash can’t stay in front of him.
The bigger concern is how TD, after having a good first quarter offensively, starting dribbling with his back to Dampier then shooting a tough fade-away. Against big centers, he should be moving more and using his feet. Where’s his drop step? How about a jab step before driving? That got him a bucket on a hookshot close to the net early on. His passing was superb, and he got those three big blocks. But it looked to me like he got tired as the game wore on and started settling for bad shots.
The defense has been great throughout the series. Great rotations, forcing turnovers in crunch time… When we play like that, we can beat anyone. The biggest matchup problems we pose for Phoenix are Duncan and TP. Amare is not a good 1-on-1 low post defender and Nash is bad at defending quick perimeter players. If we can play defense the way we have and get TD and TP going, we should be good.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:41 am
bduran,
I agree that this should be a close series. However, the numbers you cite don’t reflect a couple of things.
First, matchups. I might be missing something, but I think the matchups favor us. As I said in my previous post, the Suns don’t have a great low post defender (had to double Aldridge in the series vs. Blazers) and if Tony Parker can start attacking the rim like he used to, he’s a match-up nightmare for Nash. The biggest problem for us will be Amare. I expect him to get big numbers. And with all of Phoenix’s 3 point shooters, we don’t want to double him.
Second, Phoenix’s numbers reflect a team that’s been healthy all season. So they reflect the team we’ll be playing. The Spurs’ numbers reflect a team that struggled with injuries, kept its best players to low minutes, and didn’t figure out how to play together. The team currently playing is MUCH better than those numbers, especially defensively. I’ll bet the FG% they held Dallas to in this series was much lower than what they held them to in the regular season.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:42 am
Spurs should try signing Dirk. It be nice if he would take a huge pay cut and come join us for a Championship run! But that’ll never happen, right?
April 30th, 2010 at 6:45 am
Great, just great to beat the Mavs. Basking in that is almost good enough.
But not really.
The Suns are unquestionably gonna be tough, but do-able. It’ll be a matter of who wants it more. Which I think would advantage them, because they’ve never had it before, but our unit this year has kept the hungry guys (Ginobili, Duncan, Parker), added a really hungry guy (McDyess), and brought in a bunch of fresh appetites (Hill, Blair, etc.).
This won’t be easy. It will be exciting. In the words of Peter Holt last night, “Go Spurs Go!”
April 30th, 2010 at 6:45 am
I was hoping to have at least a day of debating Phoenix or Portland, but we’ll take the Suns. Nothing like going through classic rivalries in the playoffs. Dallas, Phoenix, the team from LA not the Clippers.
April 30th, 2010 at 7:01 am
Phoenix will be tough as some you all have mentioned but if you look at it from the suns point of view, I’ll be tough on them also.
Go Spurs Go!!
April 30th, 2010 at 7:07 am
Rick Carlisle and a Series of Unfortunate Events
spurs should get some nice rest between now and monday.
cover nash with a combo of hill, parker, and bogans, expose him on the offensive end.
timmy may not have legs to cover amare. hopefully dice can continue his solid low-post defense.
must contain dragic. he is a bigger threat than most think.
hopefully ms. lopez doesn’t return for this series.
GO SPURS!
April 30th, 2010 at 7:09 am
Apparently after Pop told the team that the next player to miss a free throw would have to buy him a new car, Duncan went up to him and asked, “What color would you like it to be?” Love the casual confidence that the Spurs have.
The Suns are as good a team in the NBA as any. I’m just as worried about this series as I was about the Mavs.
I love hearing commenters say that they were on McDyess’ side the whole year. I don’t recall anyone saying that he was the answer to our Dirk problem. If anything, Jesse, Tim, Andrew and Graydon were the ones telling all of us to be patient with Dyess.
I am not entirely sure that Pop can be blamed for the let down. At least not entirely. Roddy put 40 points up on Golden State at one point this year. He’s an amazing spark plug and I think he’ll probably take JET’s spot as 6th man. I give Pop the benefit of the doubt. I was surprised that Roddy came off the bench with such poise and score so many points.
April 30th, 2010 at 7:25 am
Pastry pride,
I agree that we are playing better than those numbers since we started playing much better towards the end. Sadly, the Suns also stepped it up at the end. They didn’t have as tough a schedule as us, but I believe they were over +10 for their last 20 games. Of course I’m not saying we can’t win, just that this should be a tough series.
April 30th, 2010 at 7:25 am
@Tyler. That was good coaching by Popovich. The Spurs really needed George Hill’s aggression in the second half. The guy’s been shooting it real well too. Carlisle couldn’t figure out he needed to play Haywood and Roddy more. Roddy’s like a faster version of Barea that finishes better at the rim.
April 30th, 2010 at 8:07 am
The second round will be a good series, but I think there is more pressure on the Suns than on us. How many times have we eliminated them? Three or four? How many times have they eliminated us? Zero.
I was on Pop’s case this season about Finley, Bogans, and Bonner, but I think he did a great job in the Mavs series, and he’ll be a genius once again vs the Suns.
Also, three days rest will be great for Timmy’s legs and Manu’s nose.
Go Spurs!
April 30th, 2010 at 9:12 am
I agree that this series will be very tough. These Phoenix Suns are probably the best version the Spurs have ever seen. With Shaq gone and no huge in season trades, this ballclub has had the benefit of playing together for some time. At the end of the regular season, I thought the Suns were playing the best basketball in the entire west. The Suns ended the season winning 17 of their last 21. Their last 4 losses came against Dallas, Spurs, Lakers, and Utah.
With that said, the Suns have a number of problems with the Spurs, many of which have existed for 5 years or more.
1.) Steve Nash can get torched by whoever he’s guarding.
2.) Front line Size: Without Robin Lopez, the Suns have no true 7 footer. Sure Jarron Collins and Frye are close, but they are far from the frontline trio of Dirk, Damp, and Haywood.
3.) Nash is hurt. He hurt his hip in game 3 and it was really bothering him last night.
4.) Much like the Mavs, the Suns are super reliant upon tempo (I wouldn’t have guessed that about the Mavs heading into that series). If they can be slowed, they are vulnerable.
Keys to the series: (I will probably miss one or two)
1.) Stick it to Nash on the offensive end; make him play defense.
2.) Pound the ball into Duncan. The Suns lack size in that department.
3.) Nash and Stat will probably get theirs, but what about J-Rich? I think he is the key. If he can be stopped, the Spurs have a great chance at this.
4.) Big 3+1; The Spurs need George Hill and RJ to come through. I also think that since Phoenix does not have three 7-footers, Blair will see some more run especially if we put him up against Amundson. Those two would physically kill each other.
5.) Health: No more broken schnozes for Manu and Duncan seems to need a bit of rest. I think Parker and Hill are finally rounding back into shape.
6.) 3 pt defense. We need to chase them off that 3 pt line. They LIVE on those.
I think the Spurs will take this series in 6. You heard it here first. While the Spurs were beating one of the most talented teams in the league, the Suns beat a team that was absolutely decimated by injuries. Brandon Roy was only a shadow of his healthy self. The Spurs win in round 1 was FAR more impressive than that of the Suns and I think Dallas was a great warmup for Phoenix. Both teams are similar in strengths and style of play. Good luck Spurs!
April 30th, 2010 at 9:27 am
Based on what I saw from this team in the reg season, I didn’t see the Spurs capable of holding the Mavs consistently under 100 ppg. The defense rotations look like past Spurs playoff teams and that’s a great sign.
RJ wasn’t sensational in this series but he competed and that’s all the Spurs need from him. Carlisle gambled and took his chances by giving extra attention to Ginobili’s and Parker’s dribble penetration and leaving G Hill alone in the corner and Hill made him pay a substantial price.
Looking forward Timmy and Dyess should command the paint against the Suns especially since the Suns are without Robin Lopez. Amare Stoudamire will get his but he always does and that’s fine. It would be nice to get some contribution from Mason in this series because our spot up 3 point shooters should get a lot of good looks.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:33 am
Congratulations to the Spurs for this victory.
And now going back to a much more mudane topic. I just wonder if anyone can tell: how much money are the Spurs going to get for going into the Conference Semifinals? I ask this question because this season a guy called Peter Holt has putted a ton of money from his not very deep pockets-for NBA standards-to make this team competitive again. And I wonder how far do the Spurs have to go for him to get his money back.
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/07/09/in-appreciation-of-peter-holt/
April 30th, 2010 at 9:34 am
Last year I posted around the time the Spurs traded RJ and signed Old Dice. Dallas got Marion about the same time. I said that I was nervous about facing Dallas in the playoffs again as we had just lost to them in 5 games. Glad to know what the end result was.
ESPN analysts had 3/10 Spurs win against Dallas. Now, 8/10 say Spurs will beat Phoenix.
GO SPURS GO!!!!
April 30th, 2010 at 9:46 am
Dallas was a lot tougher match up for us than Phoenix the mavs are longer and had a more dependable star…we will win the series in 6 again not disrespect to Phoenix but we have a better team than the one that beat them in the playoffs several times and they are basically the same its that simple…Spurs in 6
April 30th, 2010 at 10:19 am
Some thoughts against the Suns
I like our guard match-ups against the Suns. It can definitely be used to our advantage
Parker/Hill/-Ginobili/Temple?
vs.
Nash/Dragic and Richardson/Dudley (3 pt specialist, OK defender)….forgot about Barbosa, we’ll have to account for him as well.
(Richardson is playing out of his mind right now…I know)
Nash can’t guard anyone of our guards, but will make some shots and create for others….that’s a given…….and Stoudemire’s gonna GET HIS all around…….we know this.
If the Spurs can get:
Temple some minutes against Dragic/Barbosa when the Suns put them in. This Dragic can play and will do some things Spurs fans didn’t know he had in him. Temple WILL outmatch him athletically and make him earn everything while giving Hill/Parker a break when Dragic’s in. Plus Temple is a player who the Suns haven’t seen (I believe) and can potentially create some issues at the defensive end for the Suns as Dragic isn’t a great defender.
Get Blair avging 20 mpg, he will produce. His hustling play was responsible for the game 4 win. He IS a game changer on any given night.
We all know Duncan needs to bring at least B+/A- game to win this series.
Mcdyess to maintain his play…nuff said
Jefferson to neutralize Hill in some form whether it be on defense or working without the ball to slash to the hoop
Run plays to get Richardson guarding Ginobili at the top of the key where Richardson can’t force help….whether its a screen on a switch or 1 on 1 match up. Richardson cannot guard when he is isolated. Just open up the floor and don’t bring any screeners close to him. Hopefully this can take something out of Richardson at the offensive end.
let’s see how this goes down. I like our match-up against the Suns. No, it won’t be an easy series but I think we’ll win.
April 30th, 2010 at 10:55 am
I called Spurs in 6 last series. I’m calling Spurs in 5 now. Here are my reasons:
- relying on up-tempo offense to win you games is not going to take you very far
- Steve Nash can’t beat the Spurs in a 7 game series
- Suns had to double Lamarcus Aldridge ….. ……
- At times, Mavs will pretty effective guarding the pick and roll. Mav defenders were also semi-effective in guarding Manu. I don’t that being the case this round. I see Manu having a big series.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:04 am
@Jim Henderson
I didn’t mean to imply that a series against Lakers would be easy.
I was trying to say that a MAVS series would have been harder or just as hard as a series against the Lakers. But now that the SPURS beaten the MAVS in a tough series, then I love their chances.
Phoenix won’t be easy by any means, but IMO Dallas is a much better team then Phoenix.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:04 am
bduran
April 30th, 2010 at 6:18 am
“Actually the Spurs are a much better defensive team than Phoenix. We give up 104.5 points per 100 possesions vs. 110.2 for Phoenix. The problem is they are by far the best offensive team scoring 115.3 per 100. The next best is Atlanta with 111.9. San Antonio scores 110. So our effeciency differential is 5.5, and Phoenix has a differential of 5.1.”
And this is what I said:
“……The Suns are tied with the Spurs for 11th in the NBA in opponent FG%, at 45.2%. And no, you can’t look at points per game given up because the Suns are an up tempo team, and led the league in scoring, so of course they’re going to give up more points. But they can defend, and opposing FG% is the best marker for that in this case. Plus, their point differential is +4.9; ours is +5.1.”
I don’t see how we’re at odds in these comments that we made. We just approached it slightly differently to come to the same conclusion: the Suns defense is not bad when you take into account their offensive proficiency, and thus, we should not take them lightly in the least.
Este
April 30th, 2010 at 9:27 am
“It would be nice to get some contribution from Mason in this series because our spot up 3 point shooters should get a lot of good looks.”
No, please, NO MASON! He has unequivocally LOST his shot this season, and is a liability in all other areas of his game. We don’t want to be shooting TOO MANY threes against the Suns anyway, because misses feeds their deadly offensive transition game.
Colin
April 30th, 2010 at 10:19 am
Nice post, Collin. I think you’re right about getting Temple in for spot minutes for defensive purposes. His length matches up well with Dragic.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:09 am
Spurs can’t let J.Rich do to them what he did to Portland
April 30th, 2010 at 11:13 am
Mason
April 30th, 2010 at 10:55 am
“I called Spurs in 6 last series. I’m calling Spurs in 5 now.”
I think you’re taking the Suns too lightly.
junierizzle
April 30th, 2010 at 11:04 am
Yeah, I understand. I just think that, should we both advance, the Lakers would be a little tougher for us than the Mavs were (and the Mavs were tough!). That said, I like our chances against LA better than I did even as recently as 4-6 weeks ago, primarily because our team “D” has fairly recently gone up to another level. So, I’m happy about that.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:43 am
By the way, this is a great article for Spur fans that - Tanjavur - April 30th, 2010 at 5:16 am - linked to earlier:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=ArO7kg9CRRBnbjz.dv_CF628vLYF?slug=aw-mavsspurs043010
Here’s some excerpts to give you a taste:
“That’s the beauty of the Spurs. They never think they have the answers, but they almost always do.”
“It just didn’t jell,” Peter Holt said. “There were a lot of frustrating moments for all of us. We could’ve just fallen apart.”……
“………These are the four-time champion Spurs and Popovich had advanced out of the first round for the 11th time in the past 13 seasons, but make no mistake: This 97-87 Game 6 victory to clinch a Game 6 and a series victory over the Dallas Mavericks had been born of so much struggle and uncertainty. Maybe they were kidding themselves. Maybe the run was over. In the end, everyone had to trust that staying true to this Spurs system, to its core beliefs, would ultimately find them a way out of a murky regular season and into the light of springtime.”…….
“…….They were wildly up and down this year, and that’s why Duncan dismissed the notion that the Spurs were somehow too good to be a seventh seed in the West.
“We earned a seven seed,” he insisted. “We got put where we were supposed to be.”
There’s the greatness of Duncan, the essence of the man: No sense of entitlement, no sense that past glories earned them excuses now. That’s the culture here. That’s why they keep coming, and coming and coming.”…….
“…………In the moments of truth, there was such a calm over these Spurs. They lost a 22-point lead in the game, lost their touch at the free-throw line and Popovich finally blurted in the huddle: Next guy to miss a free throw owes me a car. On the way back to the court, Duncan, the worst of them all with six misses in seven tries, stared back blankly at his coach and asked, “What color do you want?”
The entire article is worth a read. Check it if you get the chance.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:51 am
Jim Henderson,
I agree with most of what you said, I just disagreed on one point.
“The Suns are tied with the Spurs for 11th in the NBA in opponent FG%, at 45.2%”
“But they can defend, and opposing FG% is the best marker for that in this case.”
This implies to me that you think that the Suns were approximately as good as the Spurs on D during the regular season. I disagree with this. I agree you have to adjust for pace, which is why I was using points per possession (point per 100 actually but it amounts to the same thing.) They are in the bottom half in points per possession given up. They do an okay job in FG%, so I looked at some of there other stats.
It looks like they are a little below average in opp 3pt. fg%, total rebounding, and Opp FTs attempted. Of course FTs attempted wasn’t pace adjusted so I’m not sure how important this is. As far is rebounding, they are actually a pretty good offensive rebounding team, but they are a terrible defensive rebounding team. I suspect this is the number reason they give up so many points per possession.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:53 am
@pastrypride,
NO way will Nash be guarding Parker frequently because Grant Hill will be on him. Grant Hill spent the series guarding Andre Miller. Nash will be on George Hill and forcing him to be aggressive offensively which will be a good thing. But rarely will Nash be guarding Parker in this series.
@ Colin,
I agree Temple should get playing time but, I’m hoping that Hairston gets the minutes instead. He has proven to be effective when guarding Kevin Durant or Kevin Martin holding them scoreless. Hairston’s athletic ability to get up and down the court will be needed as will as defending Richardson should Jefferson get in quick foul trouble again.
Roger Mason should Never, Ever play again for the Spurs. DNP-CD for him only.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:56 am
I don’t fear the Suns anymore than I have in the past.
At the end of the day (apologies for the cliche), the Suns two best players are GREAT on offense but POOR on defense.
The formula is tried and true. Defense wins championships.
April 30th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
The Spurs need Mason to contribute to keep guys fresh. In 08 playoffs the Spurs relied to heavily on the big 3 in the Phx and Hornets series and had nothing left in the tank when they faced the Lakers in the conference finals. Parker wore down and Manu broke down.
I know Mason has fallen out of favor with the Spurs faithful but he’s on the roster whether we like it or not so Pop needs to try to get some production from the guy
April 30th, 2010 at 12:17 pm
Of our small guys in the playoffs so far: Parker-Hill-Manu-RJ(kind of)-Bogans-Mason. This is what I’ve seen and wait I expect Pop to do. I would put Temple after RJ and I would expect to see Mason be let go if not traded this summer. He did some great things for the team but he isn’t doing it now. Sorry Roger.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:20 pm
[...] “George Hill and Manu Ginobili close out the Mavericks” | 48 Minutes of Hell [...]
April 30th, 2010 at 1:39 pm
Truthfully,
Didnt think our team would even make the playoffs this year. The fact that they not only made the playoffs, but made it to the second round against a team that they could actually beat.
Amazing…
Doesnt really matter what happens from this point on…This team has exceeded expectations already…
Cant get caught up thinking that the Suns cant defend…They can.
Must be careful of thier bench and must contain Richardson. He will be the key. Spurs have beat the snot out of Suns with most of thier core guys from yesteryear, but they didnt have Richardson or Lopez…
I say again, Blair really should get 20 min plus per game in this series. Not just minutes, but minutes inwhcih the Spurs are posting him up and feeding him the rock in the low post.
Im no Bonner fan, but Bonner could get away with more minutes in this series as well…
If Pop has his backcourt rotations solid for this series, it can be won. However, if he starts that Bogans, Mason BS, its a wrap. Look what Roddy did to us in Mavs game 6….
Hope the trainer, the coyote, the beer man, all the players, coaches and assistants gave thier end of month checks to the young G. Hill for game 6.
Finally,
Win, lose, or draw from this point on in these playoffs….What can any of us say about Ginnobli, Parker, and Duncan….
Getting to this point with this supporting cast…WOW, Ive been humbled! They are the three kings!
PS,
Still think Pop sucked this season! Hope he doesnt jack up round 2…
April 30th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
bduran
April 30th, 2010 at 11:51 am
“This implies to me that you think that the Suns were approximately as good as the Spurs on D during the regular season.”
No, I didn’t mean to imply that. However, what it does suggest (opposing FG% numbers), is that the Suns do play better “D” than they did in the past, and they aren’t “that much worse” defensively than any other playoff team in the West. Thus, with their exceptional shooting prowess, their decent level of “D” makes them quite competitive in the West.
You focus on points per possession, but they’re going to give up more points per possession because they play a transition game. And of course, as you alluded to earlier, they have a “positive differential” in points per possession.
You also mention the Suns opposing 3-pt. FG% is on the high side, but fail to note that they have the largest differential in the league, at 5.7% (they shoot it at an NBA record 41.2%, and give up 35.5%). In contrast, the Spurs shoot the three at 35.8%, and give it up at a 34.3%, a differential of just 1.5%.
And again, they don’t need to be one of the top rebounding teams when they lead the league by far in FG%, at 49.2%, and yet they edge the Spurs in both offensive & defensive rebounding (their tied for 5th in the league in total rebounds, we’re eighth - they’re tied for 14th in offensive rebounds, we’re tied for 17th).
lvmainman
April 30th, 2010 at 11:53 am
“NO way will Nash be guarding Parker frequently because Grant Hill will be on him. Grant Hill spent the series guarding Andre Miller. Nash will be on George Hill and forcing him to be aggressive offensively which will be a good thing. But rarely will Nash be guarding Parker in this series.”
That may be true, but there’s no way Hill can stay with Parker. It’s still a match-up advantage for us.
And I agree that Hairston should be an option before Temple, if he’s healthy, of course. Apparently, that’s a BIG if.
Right on about Mason!
VP of Common Sense
April 30th, 2010 at 11:56 am
They have built a core group of defenders around their two stars. Will it be enough? Perhaps not. But with the leading 3 point shooting team in history, their improvement on “D” from their surrounding cast makes them more formidable than ever before. If Lopez remains out due to injury, that hurts them in this match-up.
Este
April 30th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
There’s always guys on a roster that rarely see action unless an “emergency” exists (like a rash of injuries). RMJ should clearly be one of those guys.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
BALLHOG
April 30th, 2010 at 1:39 pm
“Must be careful of their bench and must contain Richardson. He will be the key.”
Must agree. He is an x-factor for them.
“I say again, Blair really should get 20 min plus per game in this series. Not just minutes, but minutes inwhcih the Spurs are posting him up and feeding him the rock in the low post.
Im no Bonner fan, but Bonner could get away with more minutes in this series as well…”
Good points. Generally agree. Blair just needs to make sure is “mentally ready”. Limit silly fouls, and missed defensive rotations.
“Still think Pop sucked this season! Hope he doesnt jack up round 2…”
Don’t agree. Big surprise!
April 30th, 2010 at 1:57 pm
Pop should be receiving little to no criticism for the job he did during this series. He has a knack for reading his players. He knows when they’re time has come, and when they aren’t quite ready. Whether you agree with the amount of burn given to some players versus others, you have to admit, like a good lover, he knows when to insert and when to pull out. (R.J. may be the only player he made out of wedlock and didn’t use proper protection.) Compare/Contrast. Pop tells Hill, “Go get your name in the paper,” i.e., “take over,” ignore thy teammates. Hill, remember, is supposed to be done in the fourth? Gets all kinds of burn, rewards the coaches faith. Meanwhile when things are going swimmingly for Dallas, Carlilse sends Butler to the bench for a while and more significantly, Beaubois, the player we essentially had no answer for when he found his groove. You think we have complaints? He minimized the two players that restored the lead for them not named Nowitski. When the little frog finally comes back in, we eat him alive, because too much is expected out of him - he’s already programmed to fail. Quite a different approach in psychological warfare wouldn’t you say? And purposefully tanking the previous game after we fell well behind for us to come out with exactly the kind of energy and first quarter we needed to set the precedent to win? Genius. Perception is a helluva thing. Pop is unmatched by most in the league.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:57 pm
Jim Henderson,
At this point it may just be semantics, but my point is that they are worse defensively. Obviously they make up for it on offense. In fact, they are worse defensively than they have been in the past, they just are also better offensively. This is one of the best offensive teams in the league in a long time. If your point is that their defense suffers because of the way they plan on offense and it’s worth it, then I won’t argue ’cause I just don’t know. However, D is not a strength of theirs.
Also, the rebounding numbers you cite are misleading. They only rebound .704 of opponents missed shots. This is not good. Y ou can’t look at totals per game for the same reason you can’t look at points, they aren’t pace adjusted. So they are in fact a poor defensive rebounding team. They are a good offensive rebounding team rebounding over 27% of their missed shots.
Another way to look at it is rebound differential. We out rebounded teams by 3.3 a game (good for 3rd), they out rebounded teams by only .7 a game (which puts them in a 3 way tie for 12th). We should beat this team on the boards. If we don’t … well, bad things will probably happen.
April 30th, 2010 at 2:46 pm
Nice post ballhog.
Also collin I like the idea of Temple, but for me right now I’d rather see an active Malik Hairston playing spot minutes at the 2 if needed and backing up the three.
I don’t think anyone in this series is the kind of guy that needs a Bogans type on him defensively.
Theres no big 3 who plays a point forward role here like Carmello.
I think everyone is in agreement that the suns are crying out to be Blaired in the face right?
Frye is no power man down low, nore is Amare for that matter.
April 30th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
Bushka
Amare is no power man down low????
I’d have to disagree with that. You’ve watched him this season right?
April 30th, 2010 at 4:09 pm
We gonna TEAR UP Suns
April 30th, 2010 at 5:26 pm
KOC
April 30th, 2010 at 1:57 pm
Nice post, KOC!
bduran
April 30th, 2010 at 1:57 pm
“In fact, they are worse defensively than they have been in the past……”
No way, show me the data to back this up. I think you’re wrong here.
On the rebounding data that you cite, I have a couple of issues:
(1) How did you arrive at the data for rebounds as a percentage of opponents missed shots? Also, it would help if you’d cite the same number for the Spurs, as well as for the best teams (e.g., Cavs, Magic, LA, Jazz, Celtics) in the league in this regard, for comparison.
(2) How are these stats you cite relevant to the whether the Suns are effective on the defensive end? The Suns might give up more second-chance point opportunities, but “defensive rebounding” is more of an indirect measure of team defense. Defensive rebounding is more relevant “defensively” when comparing “half-court” offenses with other “half-court” offenses; not so much when comparing “high-tempo-transition” offenses with “half-court” offenses. Ultimately, if a team shoots a much higher percentage than other teams, and rebounds effectively on the offensive end (which you admit is true in the Suns case), it seems to me that it would not hurt them nearly as much in terms of wins/losses and point differential (which are the most important factors in the final analysis) as it would teams who shoot a lower percentage and/or don’t rebound well on the offensive glass.
(3) On rebounding differential: Again, same concept; the Spurs need to out-rebound their opponents, particularly against the Suns, because our FG% vs. opponents FG% differential is just 2.1%, while for example for the Suns it is an NBA leading 4%.
“We should beat this team on the boards. If we don’t … well, bad things will probably happen.”
This I agree with you on, because we’re more of a half-court offense, and don’t cash in on offensive possessions at nearly the rate of the Suns (offensive rating of 115.3; Spurs 110.0). In other words, we MUST limit the number of Suns possessions as much as possible to win. Obviously, rebounding is one way we can do that (controlling tempo, another).
Colin
April 30th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
“Bushka
Amare is no power man down low????
I’d have to disagree with that. You’ve watched him this season right?”
I’m quite sure Bushka means from a “defensive” standpoint.
April 30th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
From my previous post:
“…..our FG% vs. opponents FG% differential is just 2.1%, while for example for the Suns it is an NBA leading 4%.”
Actually, I overstated here. Cleveland & Utah are the only other teams that beat the Suns differential in this case, both at 4.2%.
However, if one used TS%, which is probably even more relevant for the point I was making, the Suns probably come out on top because they lead the Cavs & Jazz in 3-point % by 3.1% & 4.8%, respectively.
April 30th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
Is RMJ engineering his exit from the NBA or just the Spurs with his play this season? He’s big in the music business (his girlfriend is a rising star named Cece and most of his energy this season has gone into promoting her work) so he should be set but oh man what a way to go out after being Money Mase.
April 30th, 2010 at 8:28 pm
I’m glad the Spurs made Jason Terry eat up his words. Terry guaranteed a Mavs’ victory in game 6 but was a no show in the game. Hey Terry, 1/7 shooting with 2 pts. is not how you back up your guarantee.
I hope this is the year of the Spurs but just to get to the NBA final the spurs would have to knock off the top 3 seeds in the West. Wow that’s tough. :\
April 30th, 2010 at 9:30 pm
Jim,
You can go to the espn team stats page and it has the rebounding percentages. I got the points per possession from basketballreference.com
Also, my evidence for their poor defense is their points per possession given up. I then looked at some other stats and then saw that they have a poor defensive rebounding and speculated that this may be a large part of the reason. Maybe they have other areas of weakness that are equally problematic.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:50 pm
Just wanted to throw this out there. Not only was our final season loss to the Suns the back end of a back to back and not only was it Parker’s second game back from injury and not only was it our 3rd successive road game in which we had just won in Los Angeles and Sacramento oh and beaten Orlando and Houston at home prior to the road trip, but George Hill did not play. Injured. Mason, Temple, Hairston ate his 40+ minutes.
I love our chances. Go Spurs Go!
May 1st, 2010 at 5:14 am
I truely feel sorry for the Mavs fans. To have such high hopes and great expectations dashed on the rocks of reality year, after year, after year must be heartbreaking. Better luck next year. Now all you Spurs fans join my mantra: I STILL BELIEVE!!!!! 2010 THE YEAR OF THE SPURS!!!!! GO SPURS GO!!!!!
May 1st, 2010 at 5:56 am
Not to rain on everyones statistical parade, but the spurs just demonstrated how “intangiables” overcame what on paper appeared as outmatched in talent. I think the Mavs haven’t been as discerning as the Spurs (and probably not as lucky over the years) when building a team that has ALL the ingredients needed to win.
My first gut feeling for Spurs v Suns series: Spurs in 5. They have enough offensive weapons to counter the Suns, and always do the little things in the game that bit better than Phoenix. Having games every 2 days could wear on Duncan and the veterans, pushing it to six….but its looking like the “old” spurs players have their eye on the opportunity to have a battle royale with the lakers….and the younger guys are proving to be very opportunistic.
Spurs in 5 gets us enough rest to throw the gauntlet at LA on the road in games 1 and 2….I see LA dispatching Utah in 5 aswell - but hoping for six….because rest and recovery is paramount going up against that kind of size.
May 1st, 2010 at 7:39 am
People worry about the Suns offensive prowess, which is impressive, but I think the Suns need to worry about us! Tony / Manu / Hill were crazy awesome vs the Mavs, and should run circles around the Suns as well!
I’m also glad the Suns closed out Portland in 6, this way Pop knows who we are playing and can use these three days off to prepare.
I’m going to pick Spurs in 5! Win, Lose, Win, Win, Win.
May 1st, 2010 at 7:41 am
Jim Henderson,
to continue…
“Ultimately, if a team shoots a much higher percentage than other teams, and rebounds effectively on the offensive end (which you admit is true in the Suns case), it seems to me that it would not hurt them nearly as much in terms of wins/losses and point differential (which are the most important factors in the final analysis) as it would teams who shoot a lower percentage and/or don’t rebound well on the offensive glass.”
Sure, but I was focusing on only one part of the equation, defense. Ultimately it’s about scoring more points per possession than the other guy, and the Suns, despite allowing a lot of points per, do quite well because they are ridiculously efficient on offense. The Suns are good at winning and they make me very nervous.
The last time we faced them we shot 47.6% and rebounded almost half our misses and yet lost by 11. Scoring against the Suns is not the problem, limiting them offensively is.
Also, according to basketball reference, the Suns were worse defensively last year, but prior to that haven’t had defense this bad since ‘95-’96.
May 1st, 2010 at 10:20 am
Spurs in 6, same set-up as against Dallas. Lose, Win, Win, Win, Lose, Win.
We let Dirk score crazy and we did fine, so Amare will score too But we need defense on the others. Cannot let Nash move the ball and get assists. High assists lead to wins for that team. Their bench won’t provide too much trouble if we play the same rotations as the Dallas series. That really leaves Hill and Richardson. We keep them cold, like we did to Marion, and we will win.
I was hoping the Thunder could push LA to 7 but no such luck.
GO SPURS GO!!!!
May 1st, 2010 at 11:09 am
bduran
May 1st, 2010 at 7:41 am
“Also, according to basketball reference, the Suns were worse defensively last year, but prior to that haven’t had defense this bad since ‘95-’96.”
I assume you are using the “defensive rating” stat to come to this conclusion. This is not the “ultimate” stat to use for determining the ultimate effectiveness of a team’s defense because it does not take “offensive tempo” into account. It is centrally tied to points given up per possession. The Suns did not became a “high” octane offense until Nash arrived in 2004-05, when their win total jumped from 29 to 62. This is when BOTH their offensive & defensive rating went considerably higher. It does not mean their defense was worst, but that they were not as concerned about it in a high transition situation that was to their advantage. This is why opposing team FG% is an important defensive stat because its “number” is not nearly as skewed by tempo-related factors as is the “defensive rating”. And just think about it for a moment: No team has EVER had the defense of the Spurs in 2003-04 (94.1 rating, 40.9 opp. FG%) and the offense of the Suns in 2009-10 (115.3 rating, 49.2 FG%, 41.3 3-pt.%). They wouldn’t lose a game! The “ratings” are as much about tempo as they are about defensive or offensive prowess. You gave to look at FG%’s to get a balance of the relative effectiveness of a teams offense or defense. Their was only one other year where the Suns opp. FG% was lower than this year, and only by a small amount, and their offensive rating was not as high.
May 1st, 2010 at 12:31 pm
We couldn’t make Dirk play defense last series and we couldn’t make Nash play defense in years past. We’ll make him play defense now.
May 1st, 2010 at 1:27 pm
Mason
Agreed. Nash has always had trouble guarding Parker in yrs past so they would put Bell or someone else on him and hide Nash on Bowen. Hell, Nash can’t even guard my kitchen table! Now with George Hill being a different kind of threat, there is nowhere to hide Nash on defense.
May 1st, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Jim,
Points per possession (ppp) is the best defensive stat. It does take pace into account because it doesn’t care about possessions per game. FG% leaves out rebounding, 3 pts, TOs, etc. If you are making the argument that the Suns sacrifice some things on D in order to play they way they want on offense that’s okay, I agree. However, that is not the whole story by any means.
Like I said, it comes down to ppp given up vs ppp scored. Your argument seems to be that that the Suns D isn’t so bad because they chose to give somethings in one area to increase things in another which ultimately increases their efficiency differential. I agree with that and it works for them. They still give up a lot of points on D.
Also, their poor Defensive Rating isn’t a foregone conclusion because of their pace. They were a better team in 2004-05. The scored almost as many ppp (1.145 vs 1.153), but gave up only 1.071 vs 1.102 this year. They did this while playing at pace generating 95.9 possessions a game as opposed to 95.3 this year. So almost as efficient on O, much better on D, and played at a faster pace.
May 1st, 2010 at 1:46 pm
Taking a read through the various break down’s of this series leads one down the path for a Suns’ victory. Looks the NBA.com, ESPN.com, CNNSI.com, CBS.com, etc are going with the opposition in 7 games. I on the other hand think this series has the same muscle memory as the Spurs/Mavs.
Come crunch time Dirk often responds the same way against a healthy Spurs team. Similarly Amare and Nash have certain responses as well. The common suggestion out there is the Suns dispatched a tough Blazers team with their new found team defense and rebounding. Allbeit true to a point, comments like this dismiss a great deal about the Spurs in order to provide substance for a Suns victory.
My factors:
a) Three days off before start of series
b) Parker is poison to Nash’s pain
c) RJ was non-existent earlier in the season
d) When the heat is on, Amare is an ego centric star who will over rely on his own greatness to his team’s detriment (Charley Rosen speaks well to this)
e) Manu is a Suns killer
f) Pop > Gentry
Go get ‘em boys.
GO SPURS GO!
May 1st, 2010 at 1:47 pm
It’s the playoffs — I am a big fan of this blog, and only say this out of love — but there really should be more posting. The pre-series commentary re the Suns shouldn’t have to be tacked onto a recap of game 6 from the last series.
May 1st, 2010 at 3:10 pm
It is a big mistake to underestimate the Suns considering how close they came to beating the Spurs in 07 playoffs. If it wasn’t for the fortunate suspensions the Suns might have beaten the spurs that year!
Regarding the point guard match, it’s a good idea for Pop to start Parker for the exact reasons Colin & bigJ stated. Maybe benching Manu would also be a good idea because he has not shot the ball well since the nose injury.
I think the key for the Spurs defensively is to slow down Richardson who is technically the 3rd scorer behind Stoudamire and Nash but is the Suns’ leading scorer thus far in the playoffs.
May 1st, 2010 at 3:32 pm
bduran
May 1st, 2010 at 1:29 pm
“Points per possession (ppp) is the best defensive stat. It does take pace into account because it doesn’t care about possessions per game. FG% leaves out rebounding, 3 pts, TOs, etc.”
From basketball-reference.com, here is the definition for “defensive rating”:
“Points allowed per 100 possessions.”
It’s really a pretty simple stat.
True, Drtg. does treat as neutral possessions per game. And, I never said Drtg. “completely disregards pace”. That said, ALL fast-paced teams will have a poorer Drtg. Does that mean all fast-paced team don’t play “D” well-enough to win deep into the playoffs? Perhaps, all things being equal, it may be more difficult, but certainly not out of the question. Look at the show-time Lakers of the 1980’s (no, I’m not comparing this years Suns to them! Just illustrating a point that it can be done - Magic’s Lakers did not win just because of a high-paced offense).
Also, in some respects, having a low opponent FG% is even more impressive on a fast-paced team because the opponent is also bound to get more easy baskets in transition than they might ordinarily get. Bottom line: No fast-paced team is going to be as good defensively as the best half-court-type team defenses. However, as you know, it takes both offense & defense to win a title. I’m simply saying that the defense of this years Suns is underrated. It’s MUCH better than last year, and it is competitive with the all other Suns teams during the Nash era, with the highest Ortg., and highest 3-point percentage. We would be making a mistake to under-appreciate their ability in any aspect of their game, including defensively.
Finally, opp. FG% is a purer measure than Drtg. is of “real” defense. It doesn’t care at all about pace. It asks, how infrequently do you allow your opponent to score, regardless of possessions per game, pace, or whether it’s in the half-court, or in transition. It cares about “fundamental defense”, as opposed to gambling for steals, how fortunate you are that your opponent commits an unforced turnover, or how good you are at rebounding, ergo, affecting the “possessions per game” in your favor. Let’s face it, steals aren’t always good “D”, turnovers are certainly not caused by good “D” many times, and rebounding is only indirectly related to “defense”.
“Your argument seems to be that that the Suns D isn’t so bad because they chose to give somethings in one area to increase things in another which ultimately increases their efficiency differential. I agree with that and it works for them. They still give up a lot of points on D.”
In answer to the first sentence in the paragraph quoted above, yes, and that’s what wins championships for teams with high-octane offenses (e.g., Magic’s Lakers). So again, if the Suns are running their team to maximize their strengths, which is fast-paced scoring, they’re going to be stuck with giving up more “easy” opportunities for the opponent to also score in transition. That’s just a reality of life. But giving up “a lot of points” is not the truest measure of team defense, or we could make it simpler and just look up points allowed per game. My whole argument is that the Suns defense is “underrated”. It’s not great, it’s pretty decent, but not as good as the Spurs.
“Also, their poor Defensive Rating isn’t a foregone conclusion because of their pace. They were a better team in 2004-05. The scored almost as many ppp (1.145 vs 1.153), but gave up only 1.071 vs 1.102 this year.”
I do agree that from a combined offensive/defensive perspective (which takes into account opp. FG%), the Suns were a bit better in 2004-05, and their record bears that out. Unfortunately, the Spurs were better then too.
However, with Lopez in the line-up, the current Suns may very well be “comparable defensively in the half-court set” to the 2004-05 team, which of course is crucial in end-of-game situations in the playoffs. As you know, there are key times when you just need a stop in the half-court. During those relatively rare times when they’re stuck more than they would prefer in the half-court set, they are better than the typical Suns team has been since Nash arrived . I do not believe they are as good as the Spurs are in these situations, and that’s one of the reasons I favor the Spurs in a seven-game playoff match-up, if they can win the tempo-war.
May 1st, 2010 at 3:50 pm
I understand what defensive rating is, it’s points per possession (points per 100 is the same thing).
“Finally, opp. FG% is a purer measure than Drtg. is of “real” defense. It doesn’t care at all about pace. It asks, how infrequently do you allow your opponent to score, regardless of possessions per game, pace, or whether it’s in the half-court, or in transition.”
This is not true, it doesn’t say how frequently the opponent scores, that’s ppp. It says how often does the shot go in when the opponent shoots. PPP takes everything into account opponent FG% takes only into account shots that leave the hand and whether or not they go in. Extremely limited.
If a team only allows 25% FG, but gives allows opponents to rebound 90% of their own misses, they will be terrible on Defense (I know this is an outrageous exaggeration, just trying to make a point.)
A simple stat like ppp doesn’t tell us why or how or anything like that. It just says what is. So I’ll say it again, but Suns are a very good team but they are not good on Defense. If a team is giving up a lot of points on every trip the opposing team makes down the floor they aren’t playing good D.
A team can make the a decision to sacrifice D for O and play better as a result and that should be noted in any analysis.
May 1st, 2010 at 6:27 pm
bduran
May 1st, 2010 at 3:50 pm
Fine, I’ll redefine opp. FG% slightly:
“opp. FG% is a purer measure than Drtg. is of “real” defense. It doesn’t care at all about pace. It asks, how infrequently do you allow your opponents shots to go in the basket, regardless of possessions per game, pace, or whether it’s in the half-court, or in transition.”
That’s what defense is. It’s stopping your opponent from making a shot, preferably without fouling him.
“PPP takes everything into account opponent FG% takes only into account shots that leave the hand and whether or not they go in. Extremely limited.”
But that’s the point, ppp allowed takes TOO much into account to be a “fine” enough measure to hone in on defining “defense”, and instead allows in a bunch of factors that only “indirectly” measures “defense”. It instead more directly measures a teams success at “allowing a team to score less points in a game”, primarily by simply winning the “efficiency” battle over points allowed per 100 possessions. This clearly FAVORS slow, half-court teams, like Charlotte, Boston, or Milwaukee, because you’re going to score less often per possession in the half-court compared to in the open court, in transition. Surely you can see this, right?
Other than that, I think we just have a fundamentally different idea as to what “defense” really means. For the type of up-tempo offense the Suns run, their defense is pretty good.
May 1st, 2010 at 8:18 pm
Spurs in 6.. a real bash like we love it.. L-W-W-L-W-W
May 1st, 2010 at 8:44 pm
Allright, last attempt.
“That’s what defense is. It’s stopping your opponent from making a shot, preferably without fouling him.”
NO, it’s stopping the opponent from SCORING. That is defense. Stopping the shot is a good start. Points scored per possession is the only stat that matters. I don’t care how good your FG% defense is, if your opponent is scoring a lot per possession it’s a problem. The Suns are getting by right now because their offense is amazing. As in, no one has scored this well per possession in a long, long time.
Look, a team could make every shot they took, but turn the ball over half the time down the court and they would be terrible. I don’t care how well you shoot, if you score points at a high rate every trip down the court you will be a good offense, if you don’t you won’t.
“For the type of up-tempo offense the Suns run, their defense is pretty good.”
I agree. Sun’s are good and they’ve decide what to focus on.
May 2nd, 2010 at 12:47 am
Okay, let me try to sum this up. This is what I said “defense” is:
“It’s stopping your opponent from making a shot, preferably without fouling him.”
This what you said defense is:
“NO, it’s stopping the opponent from SCORING. That is defense. Stopping the shot is a good start. Points scored per possession is the only stat that matters.”
Ultimately, having a “good” defense only matters in the context of how “good” your offense is. After all, the objective is to score on avg. more points in 48 minutes of Hell than your opponent does. That’s how you win or lose. Points per possession scored, and given up, is an indicator of your chances of success in this regard. Thus, in this most important context, the Suns do quite well compared to the other playoff teams. Their points per possession differential is 5.1. The only teams with higher differentials is Orlando (8.1), Cleveland (7.1), Utah (5.7), Spurs (5.5), and Hawks (5.2). The Hawks also do not have a high ranked Drtg, but are the 2nd ranked in Ortg. Only the Magic & Cavs have an Ortg./Drtg. differential of greater than .6 over the Suns.
So I’ll settle for this admission on your part:
I said:
“For the type of up-tempo offense the Suns run, their defense is pretty good.”
You said:
“I agree. Sun’s are good and they’ve decided what to focus on.”
And I still say considering a teams opp. FG% is important in deciding what team has the best defense, because I don’t think Charlotte has the best defense in the league (good, but not the best). That would be Orlando.
Leave a Reply