Thursday, June 17th, 2010...1:06 pm
Tall Brazilian: “I’ve always wanted to visit the River Walk”
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(Ed. Note: Mea culpa. Originally I incorrectly referred to Tiago as a Spaniard, but a few of our beloved commenters took the time to note my mistake.)
Ok, Tiago Splitter didn’t really say that. But Josean Quereta, president of Caja Laboral, Splitter’s Spanish Club, did say Splitter wants to play in the NBA.
Via the Express-News:
Quereta said he understands it is Splitter’s “intent and desire” to join the NBA next season.
Splitter, the Spurs’ 2007 first-round draft pick and the MVP of the Spanish League this season, “wants to compete in the best league in the world,” Quereta said.
Hey, don’t the Spurs own his rights? Does that mean, if he comes to the NBA, he’ll have to play for San Antonio? I’d be cool with that.
131 Comments
June 17th, 2010 at 1:24 pm
Me too!!
June 17th, 2010 at 1:25 pm
I really dunno about that.
I’ve been following the news about the free agency and the draft more than the NBA Finals, and all I’ve been reading about is the rumor about the Tony Parker (potential) trade and the overhype about this guy.
But the way I’m observing his behavior, while there is genuine desire for him to play in the NBA, I don’t think he wants to play for the Spurs. The way he’s been delaying things (a la LeBron) and how he sounds like he’s trying to make himself sweeter and much sought about, I think that we got here a prima donna in the making - definitely not a Spurs kind of guy. If his rights were drafted by some big-market team (e.g., New York, L.A.), I think he wouldn’t even be doing this and he’ll be probably playing in the NBA since one year ago. “Unfortunately” for him, he got drafted by a gritty, small-market team that’s more about the game than the image.
With the kind of attitude he’s showing, do we really want this kind of guy in our team? Yes, he’s talented, but so is LeBron. I see a egoistic person who wants the attention to himself. Looking at the traditional Spurs - Robinson, Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Hill and Blair - these are people whose concern is to win games, and not to be the center of the league.
Sure, I want him to be in the NBA as the apprentice (like Duncan was with Robinson), but I’d rather be holding my breath for the 20th pick than this guy.
I’m fervently hoping that I’m wrong about him. I’d be happy to retract my opinion on him if I see a person who’s hell-bent on proving himself a capable player in the NBA whose main concern is getting that trophy and his ring, rather than the hype.
June 17th, 2010 at 1:36 pm
I’m ok either way…either he plays for us, or is part of a sign and trade. Splitter to the NBA is nothing but upside for the Spurs.
June 17th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
Rey,
I smell what you’re steppin’ in, but are we sure the delay is Tiagos’ and not the Spurs “lets see what we get with the draft first” attitude that doing the holding up?
June 17th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
Good point Aron! Either way the Spurs win, right?
June 17th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
Rey, here’s the deal with Splitter…he was given a massive contract by his current team that the Spurs couldn’t match because they were tied to the rookie scale. At the time his sister was very ill so the money to help care for her was important.
The guy’s no slouch though, he was smart enough to ask for an early buy-out clause should his situation change. The clause is structured in such a way that to go play for an NBA team the amount would be X number of dollars, but to go play for another European team then the buy-out would be four times that. Seems to me that his agent did a good deal working with the team to help make Tiago’s dreams on playing in the NBA a bit easier.
As for the “attitude” he’s been showing, there’s a reason why he’s been non-committal and vague…he’s been playing in the frickin’ playoffs. One does not talk about next year when there are still games to be played this year.
I have no idea if Splitter is coming to the Spurs, I hope so, but I don’t think what we’ve seen from him off the court as of late is any sort of red flag to be worried about.
June 17th, 2010 at 2:57 pm
If he can produce like a Pau Gasol it might turn us into contenders.
June 17th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
The Spurs future rests with Splitter. An NBA championship requires a player with length and skill. Amen
June 17th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
Splitter to Spurs…..Can anyone say CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!
June 17th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
When we drafted him, 27 spots had gone by. The teams knew he was not coming to the NBA because of his sister. He was only 22 then. He is now 25 with 3 more years of pro play in Europe. We took the pick and lived with it. Now he is coming to the NBA here or no where. >>•If the player is already under contract to, or signs a contract with a non-NBA team, the team retains the player’s draft rights for one year after the player’s obligation to the non-NBA team ends. Essentially, the clock stops as long as the player plays pro ball outside the NBA. Players are not included in the team’s team salary during the regular season while the player is under contract with a non-NBA team.<< that is from the CBA maybe that will tell you TS is ours till 1 yr after his european contract ends.
June 17th, 2010 at 8:15 pm
Splitter is Brazilian,you stupid yankee!
June 17th, 2010 at 8:16 pm
i think splitter will def. come to the spurs, first of all hes not going to tell his fans “i really am thinking whether or not to play for the nba next year” MIND U he said this the next day after winning a championship. if you put yourself in his shoes, hes trying to break it to the fans and people easy over there. he is also prob behind that whole speech the caja president made, about supporting splitter and almost encourages splitter to join san antonio this year!!!
@REY if you think splitter wants to play for another team your crazy san antonio is much like a euro teamin the nba taking on the “cocky americans ” hahaha manu ginobili is a Lengend in europe and they highly respect the spurs org. and im sure san antonio has been great with splitter and very understanding, have no doubt if hes playing for anybody in the nba its us. were if not the most loved team in europe i believe
another thing is RC doesnt just say hes bringing people over while being uncertain, as he said earlier this year “theres a very very good chance tiago will be with us next year” RC and tiago have prob made the deal sometime ago and RC didnt want to jinx or overreact but knew this was going to happen for some time now.
mark my words tiago will be a spur ill even put money on him being a life time spur this guy gets better every year he plays!!!!!
June 17th, 2010 at 8:24 pm
Also, Tiago is Brazilian, not Spanish, while I don’t think he’s at either Gasol’s level, he should certainly be an improvement over Bonner and McDyess (regular season at least)
June 17th, 2010 at 8:29 pm
I went to http://www.espn.com a few minutes ago and saw the headline, “Sparks’ Parker (shoulder) sidelined for season.” I know it’s June, but at first glance, this scared the shit out of me.
June 17th, 2010 at 8:41 pm
Tiago is an idiot if he dosent want to come play for the SPURS! dosent he realize that if he’s that good and can make a big impact, the torch might be passed to him and he could be the next face of the franchise and that means alot of $$$$$$$$$$ not to metion he might learn a few things from some nba legends(#50, #21)!!!!!!
June 17th, 2010 at 10:17 pm
Splitter and a veteran point guard and we are rolling next year…..bad luck celts…giving away all those early off rebs was the real nail in the coffin…they should have simplified their offence in the final quarter..ala 2 man ball with pierce and KG or Rondo and KG. Hindsight is a wonderful, bitter thing.
June 17th, 2010 at 10:48 pm
Damn Lakers!
June 18th, 2010 at 2:08 am
Splitter in Spurs = Chmapionship. ASSUMING THE BIG 3 R HEALTHY. look the only reason Lakers won was due 2 rebounding. Tiago and an improved deJaun could do that. which makes one wonder does TD have one more year left in the tank. Just one more year, gand a healthy TP and Manu, along with rj, tiago, blair, Dyss, Hill and another SF=championship.
I don’t know what to amke of this day, being in LA and watching those Lakers win(btw did u c how much more ft they got?) or hearing about Thiago
June 18th, 2010 at 6:03 am
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
We haven’t even signed him and although the reports are that he’d like to come over this summer, I think it’s a little premature to start preparing for next year’s championship celebration.
And while I think he’s going to be a solid player for the organization, if our expectations are for him to be the next Pau Gasol, I think we’ll be disappointed. That’s not an indictment of Tiago, it’s just not fair to compare him to one of the 2-3 best post players in the world right now.
And while Tiago might (help) fill our glaring need for another big body down low, let’s not forget we still have several more holes to fill. And without progress in those directions, we still could very well end up in the same place as last year.
June 18th, 2010 at 6:17 am
Good for the Lakers.They didnt hate us they replicated us TWIN TOWERZ.Welcome home Tiago weve waited to get married for a long time an if it takes a shot gun so be it.PHX ,SA have learned tradeing 3 shooters an 2 post men for 4 shooters an a post man dosent work/becauzzz you have 4 men taking low% shots an one guy taking a high%shot”dunks”vs 3 men taking low % shots an 2 guys taking high % shots”dunks”.I saw Tiago play 3 years ago w3as wowed an now i havent seen him play realy any big guys so i dont know what to think of him.scola looked bigger standing next to him.If he realy is 7ft 250 then get him.Hes been playing long enough to have mental toughness wich is hard to find via every center we had since DAVID
June 18th, 2010 at 6:18 am
Paul Gorge in draft is a must i dont care whAT IT TAKES
June 18th, 2010 at 6:23 am
I believe you guys are missing the boat.
Tiago is an INCREDIBLE post player. Probably top 10 in the world. I have watched alot of this guy since we drafted him 2 years ago…GREAT ball player in all aspects. He makes great decisions, is an excellent finisher in the paint, and is a very good passer for his position (almost as good as Timmy). You can look at his numbers and say they are not up to par compared to the NBA, but you have to go on percentages in this case. Euroleage ball is much slower than in the NBA. The amount of possessions are just over half as many as in the NBA. If you translated his effective scoring, passing, rebounding, and assists to NBA pace… I would lowball to say he would be an 20-10-2-3 kinda guy with the last two stats being blocks and then assists.
His defence is also highly underrated. He averages drawing 3.4 charges per game. His P&R defense is textbook. He will never be the STELLAR shot blocker/rim defender that Timmy and David were, but that doesn’t make him a sub-par defender.
He also has the innate ability to get his defender into foul trouble! Both by taking charges and by forcing a bad shot under the arm of a cheating defender. This is the main reason they won the last finalse game. Tiago had Pete Mickeal (Barca’s #1 defender) in foul trouble the entire series and actually made him foul out just short of overtime in the final game.
Enough of my ranting about how good he is… I just cant wait for him to get here and prove all you doubters wrong!
June 18th, 2010 at 6:48 am
splitter will provide a some extra rebounding and another big body but he’s not a shot blocker. I would like him to play a back up role to Duncan and for the Spurs to bring in an athletic guy to block shots and guard the rim. No matter, Splitter will be an upgrade on the offensive side of the ball.
June 18th, 2010 at 7:06 am
“He averages drawing 3.4 charges per game.”
Are you sure? That’s a ridiculous number.
June 18th, 2010 at 7:27 am
I agree with what many have already posted in regards to the Twin Tower approach. I won’t rehash my arguments from last time, but the Boston-LA finals was a HUGE testament to what big, physical playoff ball is all about. I haven’t seen a game that grinding, physical, and low scoring in a couple years and both teams were dishing out blows because they had multiple bigs with size and length. Quickness and speed are great assets, but it appears to me that they come less and less into play the deeper one goes into the playoffs. (I don’t have stats to back this up, it’s just a personal observation after years of watching ball)
We wouldn’t have stood a chance against either front the LA or Boston front line. Bonner would have been knocked on his ass in a nanosecond. McDyess (while tough and strong) wouldn’t have been able to cope with the size and length. Duncan back in the day could have dished out trouble, but now I’m not sure he would have held up too well against the physical nature of either team. Parker and Manu would have had great difficulty getting to the rim and even more difficulty finishing over 7-footers. This would have forced them into being jumpshooters; a hit or miss proposition for the Spurs at best. The Spurs have a history of winning physical playoff basketball, but this year we got bounced by a team of jumpshooters with no back-to-the-basket postman.
My point is that we MUST sign Splitter, but even signing him doesn’t guarantee we can compete with those two. We are a long way from catching the top dogs and I think our roster changes have to be so great this summer that it will take a year for the team to fully gell. We need Splitter, at least one 3pt ace, and at least 2 QUALITY bench players. I wouldn’t necessarily be opposed to moving up in the draft to get a top flight big for Duncan to mentor. I love Tiago, but at 25, his upside has been largely realized. Thoughts, ideas, or suggestions?
June 18th, 2010 at 7:28 am
I was on the acb website and ran into a bunch of great stats. That was one that I couldn’t believe either. If you ever watch him play, it’s evident.
June 18th, 2010 at 7:32 am
Did you guys see this?
http://www.prosportsdaily.com/comments/pacers-must-deal-their-no-10-pick-for-point-guard-377367.html
Should we let Hill go?
June 18th, 2010 at 9:11 am
We need to go ahead and see if New Jersey is willing to give up their 3rd pick for Tony and dump off 12,6 millions. Draft big , Favors or Cousins. Then bring in Splitter and Nando de Colo. Finaly, via free agency go after Corver,Raja Bell, Mike Miller kind of a player. For me that would be perfect ofseason development.
June 18th, 2010 at 9:31 am
manufan
June 18th, 2010 at 9:11 am
“We need to go ahead and see if New Jersey is willing to give up their 3rd pick for Tony and dump off 12,6 millions. Draft big , Favors or Cousins.”
One idea I found interesting would be a Parker for Devin Harris and #3 trade. This would give NJ a star that could help the Nets lure another big name FA this summer. Harris is a poor mans TP so he would fit in our system and Parker would probably fit in Avery’s system. It was also brought to my attention that Avery Johnson and Devin Harris had their differences in Dallas. I don’t know the likelihood of this trade happening, but from a Spurs perspective, this would be good.
June 18th, 2010 at 9:47 am
Tyler
June 18th, 2010 at 6:03 am
My sentiments exactly.
Hobson13
June 18th, 2010 at 7:27 am
“My point is that we MUST sign Splitter, but even signing him doesn’t guarantee we can compete with those two. We are a long way from catching the top dogs and I think our roster changes have to be so great this summer that it will take a year for the team to fully gell.”
I agree.
manufan
June 18th, 2010 at 9:11 am
For one thing, Parker is a much better fit with an already established playoff team or better. And second, I’m not sure I would trade Parker for a top five pick, because you’re giving up a proven 3-time all-star for an unproven draft pick that has just a 30% chance of becoming a one-time all-star or better at some point during his career. A risky proposition in my book.
Also, Korver & Miller are beyond our price-tag. Bell is a more feasible option.
June 18th, 2010 at 9:59 am
Some team in the West needs to do something so I don’t have to see the Lakers in the Finals anymore. 3 years straight is plenty, thanks.
June 18th, 2010 at 10:16 am
Hobson13
June 18th, 2010 at 9:31 am
“One idea I found interesting would be a Parker for Devin Harris and #3 trade.”
That is a deal I would strongly consider, but I doubt the Nets would, unless they felt strongly that they could also sign someone like Amare, Boozer, or David Lee once free agency kicked in. Possible, but probably not that likely, and if they can’t land a big free agent, how well does Parker fit in with a team in building mode? That said, former Spur Avery Johnson as the Nets new coach probably does lift the deal from “highly unlikely” to “within reason”, because I’m quite sure Johnson fully values what Parker has to offer. Also, Parker could be that team leader that “buys” into Avery’s system and management style (since it’s not that much different than Pop’s), which apparently is something that before long got him into trouble in Dallas. Avery clearly needs a team leader to “back him up”, because his coaching style is demanding. What better guy than a 3-time all-star point guard with THREE championships under his belt. If the Nets want to go from an “improved, sub-500 team not in the playoff hunt” (without Parker) to a team “contending to get to the eighth seed or better quickly”, then trading for Parker and signing a top FA is certainly worthy of consideration (for the Spurs, the deal would depend on whether Favors is available at #3 - I might balk if it was Cousins).
June 18th, 2010 at 11:31 am
Tiago is VERY good. He’s the best center in Europe, he’s got a very good post game, he’s athletic, and he can also defend. The Spurs absolutely need this guy, I’ve been watching him play and he looks like he can easily make the transition to the NBA.
I know the Euro-league sometimes produces soft centers but Tiago is far from a soft player, he plays a very physical game and so did the people he was playing against. When he’s around the basket he can score with a variety of post moves, he also makes extremely tough shots. Not only was he a better player than Marc Gasol in Europe but his ceiling looks to be much higher than M-Gasol’s.
His offense is sort of like Pau Gasol’s while his defense is like Anderson Varejao’s, (Varejao is a excellent defender btw, 2nd team all defense)
At 7’0 250lbs he can guard guys like Pau Gasol, Bosh, Dirk, and other athletic big men while altering and blocking shots in the paint.
June 18th, 2010 at 11:38 am
@jim
last post, spot on.
June 18th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
Jim Henderson
June 18th, 2010 at 10:16 am
“for the Spurs, the deal would depend on whether Favors is available at #3 – I might balk if it was Cousins.”
First of all, you do make good points regarding Parker and Avery Johnson. Like you said, this trade may not be likely, but it is much more probable with Avery as head coach. As far as Cousins goes, I am particularly conflicted. On one hand, he didn’t interview that great. He has also been know to be socially immature and have attitude problems. With those issues also come the fact that he is not an explosive leaper and will therefore probably never be a great shot blocker. I suppose the real question is whether he has real attitude issues or simply issues that arise due to being a 19 yrs old idiot??
On the other hand, he is easily the most NBA ready big in the entire draft. One can’t teach size and Cousins has this in spades. On top of this, he is a very skilled ballplayer for his size. In a recent workout with the Kings he made 78% of his 200 shots. He could play for most teams in the NBA and make an immediate impact. Favors could very well be a beast, but he will also be a long term project. If the title window is tied to Duncan, how long do we really have to work on a guy who might be a 3-4 year project?
My analysis: Actually, I’ve borrowed this from another post I recently read. To paraphrase: “If Cousins goes to a team like Golden State or Sacramento, you can expect more immaturity and the inevitable under development of his talent. However, if he were to go to a championship/HOF atmosphere that surrounds Duncan and Pop, Cousins may mature and become a monster.” I’m not saying we should absolutely go after Cousins since I’m not particularly sure how long Favors might take to develop. However, DeMarcus would be an interesting piece to add to the Dejaun/Tiago young front line and would certainly jarr the Tim Duncan window open for a year or two longer.
June 18th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
Jim Henderson
June 18th, 2010 at 10:16 am
“for the Spurs, the deal would depend on whether Favors is available at #3 – I might balk if it was Cousins.”
First of all, you do make good points regarding Parker and Avery Johnson. Like you said, this trade may not be likely, but it is much more probable with Avery as head coach. As far as Cousins goes, I am particularly conflicted. On one hand, he didn’t interview that great. He has also been know to be socially immature and have attitude problems. With those issues also come the fact that he is not an explosive leaper and will therefore probably never be a great shot blocker. I suppose the real question is whether he has real attitude issues or simply issues that arise due to being a 19 yrs old idiot??
On the other hand, he is easily the most NBA ready big in the entire draft. One can’t teach size and Cousins has this in spades. On top of this, he is a very skilled ballplayer for his size. In a recent workout with the Kings he made 78% of his 200 shots. He could play for most teams in the NBA and make an immediate impact. Favors could very well be a beast, but he will also be a long term project. If the title window is tied to Duncan, how long do we really have to work on a guy who might be a 3-4 year project?
My analysis: Actually, I’ve borrowed this from another post I recently read. To paraphrase: “If Cousins goes to a team like Golden State or Sacramento, you can expect more immaturity and the inevitable under development of his talent. However, if he were to go to a championship/HOF atmosphere that surrounds Duncan and Pop, Cousins may mature and become a monster.” I’m not saying we should absolutely go after Cousins since I’m not particularly sure how long Favors might take to develop. However, DeMarcus would be an interesting piece to add to the Dejaun/Tiago young front line and would certainly jarr the Tim Duncan window open for a year or two longer.
June 18th, 2010 at 12:24 pm
Sorry for the double post, gang. My computer sucks.
June 18th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
Jim,
I agree with a lot of what you said, although I think you over value being an all star. To mist spurs fans ( and most stats) it’s pretty clear Manu is the superior player, yet I believe he’s only been an all star once.
That being said, TP has proven his value in many other ways so your point remains.
Additionally, I don’t entirely agree with you cousins vs favors take. I don’t think favors is good enough to trade all the way up for. Cousins, to my mind, is the better prospect. However, his character issues may make him to big a risk. This is why I’d rather trade for another mid range pick. This is a deep draft with not enough guarantee at the top.
June 18th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
Hobson13
June 18th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
Yeah, I know Cousins is a talented dude, and may be more NBA ready than Favors. My problem with Cousins is that he’s even a bit more of a “risk”, in my view, than Favors at becoming something consistently special in the NBA. I just don’t like the added risk that he presents. I think Favors is a more solid guy (yet not convinced he’s worth the risk either, but because I like Harris as well, I’m open to the deal) and I don’t mind him taking a little longer to to translate, because we’re going to need for someone with athleticism & height to take over for Timmy by defending the rim & scoring in the low post in the next 2-3 years. I just want the best chance of picking the “right” guy over the long term if I’m going to give up Parker. We need to be smart right now, and not let our concern with the “TD closing window” cloud our judgment about what’s best for the long-term health of the franchise. If it was ONLY short-term that we’re worried about than we probably would have a harder time trading Parker for something that made sense (e.g., a star big man). The good thing about the Net trade is that we would be getting a pretty talented, and younger, point guard in return. And that tempers the risk of trading for the draft pick.
“If Cousins goes to a team like Golden State or Sacramento, you can expect more immaturity and the inevitable under development of his talent. However, if he were to go to a championship/HOF atmosphere that surrounds Duncan and Pop, Cousins may mature and become a monster.”
I don’t really buy it. For one thing, “maturity” is not the only issue. It’s not like all draft under-performers of the past have resulted from “maturity” issues. The fact is, ANY draft pick (including Favors) is a considerable risk (especially sans getting the #1 pick), regardless of the team that drafts him. Playing in the Spurs system might reduce the risk by some small amount, but nothing significant enough to alter my basic view on this issue.
June 18th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
Bduran - I disagree.
I think you are basing your assesment of TP on this years production - which was not bad. When healthy - he is a top 5 pointguard in the league. Without a point guard that can penetrate and score at the rim as efficiently as he - our system falls apart. I would also like to point out that he is a very efficient scorer from anywhere inside the arc.
Write this part down - when healthy - TP IS THE ABSOLUTE BEST finisher at the rim in the league!
I do agree that Manu is the more versitile player, Tony brings lightning fast speed and the ability to make a lay-up on anyone, period.
Just something to chew on…
June 18th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Honestly, I don’t see the Russian owner giving up his #2 for Tony Parker. Avery makes it feasible that they would want TP, but then again AJ went to the finals with Harris. Why would you trade 2 young guys, and a potential franchise twin-tower effect for an aging TP? They’d have to get more back than that. Prohorov has already stated that he’s not gonna overspend on any thing less than an All-World Great and jeopardize smartly building a great team… but if he wanted to, he doesn’t need TP to “lure” a Boozer or Amare. He can sign one of those guys w/o TP. TP isn’t a strong enough magnent to lure LBJ, and so they would end up hurting their potential (the #2) by trading for TP, when Harris is a younger diverse scorer who, by the way, is pretty friggin’ good…. you guys can forget about the #2 pick. You can also forget about the #3. Minnesota might bite if they didn’t have flynn and rubio, oh well. Indiana might be in the running for Greg Monroe or Ed Davis, but you have to give up Tony to get back Troy Murphy. This is actually do-able unlike the NJ scenario, and might be worth it if you lose out on Tiago, but I don’t see us beating LA any time soon with a young big from the #10 pick, and doubt Murphy is the answer.
I agree that the Spurs need to sign Splitter, and that it’s not enough. I don’t know if they could package him for a game-changer, but as I see it adding him is the best realistic upgrade we can make inside. And of course we need other upgrades as well…
Boston got hurt on the boards in game 7, but Wallace and KG played better early on than I’d expect a Spurs forntline to perform next year or any year really, even with Tiago. But even the Celtics length wasn’t enough, because guys like Rasheed don’t manage to keep it up down the stretch, this is a confidence thing. And Timmy and co, are susceptible to the same defeatist anxiety, this is one area where Bryant really is the best, he relishes the final stretch, especially close games. (Artest also is pretty strong mentally in that respect, he doesn’t quit on himself. Fisher, too.) Which is contagious for Pau and Odom. I don’t know if Splitter will give us all that, but I don’t see us doing better since a Cousins or Favors is out of reach (and wouldn’t payoff for 3 years at least.)
But Boston also needed Ray to hit his shots! In addition to talented, physical bigs, we need more scoring . Tony and Manu, Tim and Tiago aren’t enough. Unless DB and Hill become bonafide stars, an RJ trade is vital!
Finally, there’s almost no way we get Paul George. Nevermind that any pick is an uncertain value. I was the first guy on here to campaign for Paul George, but he’ll go early and if we trade Tony for him, it’s a HUGE gamble! Do we trade Hill for him? That’s also a big, big risk. If we can add Splitter, Turiaf, and Maggette we can afford to draft an Elliot Williams or even no first rounder at all. If we can’t add the equivalent of such players, we might as well blow it up and start rebuilding with unproven rookies, because we have no real shot. The lakers are gonna be favorites in the west for a long time yet. Unfortunately. Although, Portland has a chance if they are bold, and OKC has a chance if they lure the right FA. SA’s only hope in the near term is ADDING serious length and talent inside, and formidable gamers outside., short of that, go ahead and try to blow it up for Paul George or whoever else you like, and get used to first round exits for awhile. But I think we won’t start trading assets like Tony or Hill until next year at the earliest, mainly because we will get Splitter, and won’t be able to get 2 needed pieces back for TP. Again, if we don’t get Splitter, or can’t trade RJ, all bets are off. If we can do both, and I think we can, then we are a much better team next year.
June 18th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
@ DieHardSpur
I would say TP is the best below the rim finisher in the league. I think it’s safe to say Lebron is probably the best overall finisher at the rim in the league; the combination of size, speed, strength, athleticism, etc……yikes….
June 18th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
Good call Tyler. I think you got my drift though…
June 18th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
Bduran
June 18th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
“I agree with a lot of what you said, although I think you over value being an all star.”
Why do you think I over-value being an all-star? It was not in any way central to the point I was making.
“Additionally, I don’t entirely agree with you cousins vs favors take. I don’t think favors is good enough to trade all the way up for. Cousins, to my mind, is the better prospect. However, his character issues may make him to big a risk.”
Now, don’t misinterpret me. I’m generally not inclined to move a guy like Parker to trade up in the draft, and I certainly don’t view Favors or Cousins as a certain future star (and the point of choosing Favors over Cousins was indeed because of the added risk Cousins presents - not about the always nebulous determination of “potential”). I was mainly open to the deal proposed by Hobson because I think Harris is one of the most talented PG’s we could get back in a 2 for one swap for Parker (plus he’s younger and still might have a bit of upside left in his game in the right system). And even with that, I’d have to be sure that Harris was the right fit for the organization before I would consider such a deal. So, the draft pick, though important, is NOT the only clincher in that deal. It’s how Harris would fit in the rotation with Manu & Hill. Could he in fact substantially mitigate against the loss of Parker? That’s the question that the FO would have to consider very carefully before pulling the trigger on such a deal. Because as we know, the draft pick MAY not end up helping us that much. We simply do not know with any certainty at present.
June 18th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
i guess everyone has given up on mahinmi.
we need length and athleticism at the post position to compete with the lakers.
i would agree that splitter, mahinmi, and blair has the weakness of inexperience, but they body up better with the lakers better than if we keep dyess and bonner with splitter, blair, and duncan.
trading splitter’s rights is also a poor desicion. he is the best availible big we can get our hands on and might be one of the best if he was in this draft class.
mahinmi is tall, athletic, full of potential , and most importantly, cheap.
if ian could play 4 and tiago at the 5, that is a could future front court with blair coming off the bench.
just creating some good argument material for jim and everyone else
June 18th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
td4life
June 18th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
“Honestly, I don’t see the Russian owner giving up his #2 for Tony Parker.”
Actually, the Nets have the #3 pick.
“Why would you trade 2 young guys, and a potential franchise twin-tower effect for an aging TP? They’d have to get more back than that.”
I’m skeptical as well, that’s why I made this statement from a previous comment on this thread:
“That is a deal I would strongly consider, but I doubt the Nets would, unless they felt strongly that they could also sign someone like Amare, Boozer, or David Lee once free agency kicked in. Possible, but probably not that likely, and if they can’t land a big free agent, how well does Parker fit in with a team in building mode?”
On the other hand, I think you might be underestimating the value of TP. After all, he’s a three-time all-star, if healthy - still in his prime, and a NBA Finals MVP. That’s a guy you want if you plan to challenge in the next 3-4 years. And don’t forget the personal dynamics. Avery & TP are a better match, from the same system & mentality. Harris reportedly had some issues with an inexperienced coach AJ in his approach, an issue that could still linger. Bottom-line is this: the deal is still not likely, for a variety of reasons, but nevertheless, it is within reason to carefully evaluate as a legitimate possibility.
Otherwise, I agree. I would prefer to do the Warrior deal that we discussed previously. That’s the safest & quickest way to plug multiple holes as long as GS is interested in salary-dumping this off-season.
June 18th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
rj
June 18th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
“if ian could play 4 and tiago at the 5, that is a could future front court with blair coming off the bench.”
I know you like Ian, but it is very unlikely that he becomes a better player than Blair. I know he has the height advantage, but Blair has incredible instincts for the game that will become more and more apparent over the next few years. In fact, he has a very good shot at becoming Boozer-like in the next 3 years. If Ian could become a solid role player on the front line that would be great, but right now that’s in limbo with an unsigned contract.
June 18th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
ERRORS in the my 1st paragraph above: I mistakenly referred several times to NJ’s pick as the #2, and Philly’s as the #3… sorry about that, but you know what I meant.
June 18th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
@Jim Henderson
I don’t think I am undervaluing TP in relation to NJ’s window which is longer than TP’s (and stronger if the #3 delivers) or in TP’s ability (versus the #3 AND Devin Harris (the fact that we would welcome Harris is the same reason they aren’t really gonna part with him AND the #3 for TP… Harris is actually a somewhat similar talent when compared to TP)) to attract a Free Agent, nevermind that these moves are counter to what Prohorov has stated as his plan. Seriously, since it’s such a totally unlikely long shot, we can forget about the #3.
I agree with Bduran’s notion that it’s better to trade for a mid-range pick. (AND FAR MORE REALISTIC.) This is what I addressed regarding Indiana, which is still risky as we’d then need to acquire a PG…. as Boston lacked clutch scoring down the stretch, we need Ballers in addition to athletic size, so if you are talking TP for the #10 (or other mid-range pick), you are probably counting us out of contention in the short-term in favor of success down the road when that pick pans out.
@RJ
yes, we have given up on Ian. Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t it true that we didn’t extend his contract, which was the cheapest way to keep him a spur, and therefor the only way we would have kept him. Aside from that, he clearly isn’t loved by Pop and Co. I longed for his potential too, but it ain’t happening. All our hopes and dreams for Ian as big-time Spurs presence were but a fantasy of what never will be. Forget about him.
June 18th, 2010 at 4:17 pm
td4life
June 18th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
“Seriously, since it’s such a totally unlikely long shot, we can forget about the #3.”
Well, in my view you over-value the #3 (the odds of them ever being a one-time or better all-star is rather slim), and don’t give enough credit to TP’s championship pedigree (in comparison to Harris). In addition, the relationship to a relatively inexperienced and hard-driving coach (Johnson) and his point guard is critical to a team’s chances to build a competitive squad on the quick side of things. TP has the clear edge there, and no GM wants to take forever to be competitive as well.
“I agree with Bduran’s notion that it’s better to trade for a mid-range pick. (AND FAR MORE REALISTIC.)”
Well, neither you nor bduran mentioned WHO you would want to trade for a mid-range pick. And again, I’m not much in favor of trading up to the top 3 or 5, but what I am saying is that Hobson’s proposal was at least interesting to take a look at as an outside possibility, and was within the realm of a legitimate trade-up consideration. And after all, NONE of the deals we suggest on here are particularly “realistic”, let alone slam dunks for both sides.
“……so if you are talking TP for the #10….”
Well, there’s no way I’m trading TP for the number 10 straight up, and I know bduran would not be in favor of that either. Perhaps you meant to reference Murphy in the deal, but as you mentioned, without an adequate and experienced PG coming back, the deal is problematic, short or long term.
June 18th, 2010 at 4:46 pm
By the way, I think Philly might take the gamble on Cousins at #2. If anyone can groom that guy, Doug Collins has as good of shot as any. And thus, Turner could potentially fall to number four (T-Wolves), because I think the Nets want a PF, and will therefore select Favors. Just a guess.
June 18th, 2010 at 5:18 pm
@Jim Henderson-
I was referring to the rumor of TP for Murphy and the #10, which I see as more realistic for both sides b/c Indy badly needs a PG, and wants to dump Murphy’s contract. I see a mid-draft trade such as this as SA’s only way to draft a lottery bigman. And I went on to state that I am not in favor of such a move, unless we can’t get Splitter, get value back for RJ, or both. If we are otherwise stuck with the bigs we have, then I might consider trading TP.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Philly go big. Minny foolishly would pass on Cousins even at #4, and they are in love with Turner. So maybe these 2 teams should swap picks, and trade some other assets while they are at it?
June 18th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
Harris wasn’t exactly enthralled to be playing for the little General again by the way.
He carried on about it despite the fact that he seemed to be the leader of a 12 win team just this season past.
I don’t honestly think that Harris is the goods. He was predicted to become a fantastic top flight PG with excellent Defensive credentials and it just hasn’t happened. If he was all that I don’t think the Nets would have sucked as much as they did this season.
June 18th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
Bushka
June 18th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
“I don’t honestly think that Harris is the goods.”
Sure, but he may be good enough to mitigate the loss of Parker, because we still have Hill & Manu (& Temple), and it would of course also provide us with the opportunity to potentially get a solid big with the #3 pick, which “could” be a long-term boon for the franchise (remember, TD only has a 2-4 less productive years left). So to me, that at least sounds like a reasonable area of discussion for both clubs. By the way, NJ would have to have some sort of agreement with Parker for a long-term (4 yr.+) contract extension to have any interest in this deal, and Parker may balk at that.
June 18th, 2010 at 7:17 pm
Tiago Splitter will help us and possibily keep Parker off the trade block. We can really start to compete with the Lakers in the West with Splitter, Duncan, McDyess, and Blair. With the 20th pick it looks like we can get a replacement long term for Jefferson. Damion James would be a great fit. The future is bright for the Spurs with or without Parker. One to Two year window for the championship. GO SPURS GO.
June 18th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
I think tp is looking to head to a bigger city anyway. I know his wife wants to, I think the nets trade isnt out of this world when you consider he might not resign then we should get the most we can. I think devin harris would be a homerun.
June 18th, 2010 at 7:26 pm
I’m usually opposed to trading parker for just a pick and throw-ins but what about parker and rj to the warriors for monta Ellis, Anthony randolph , azubukie/ morrow but well the spurs would have to take on Corey magettes contract for the deal to match.
The spurs would get a decent point back plus a young big that should keep getting better, some reliable 3pt shooting and well another rj replica… and theyd still have their MLE to sign splitter hopefully
The warriors would get two expiring contracts but two players still in their prime aswell as some extreme cap relief next year.
I find this trade to be somewhat possible because the warriors franchise has been in a state of turmoil therefore they might be willing to blow up their team and start rebuilding with curry as the franchise player, besides if they want curry to be the starting point, they could trade tp for some younger pieces being that he is an expiring deal and all.
Now if the spurs could manage to swap picks with the warriors it be great but I’m trying to keep it realistic…
June 18th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
Devin Harris was campaigning for Avery Johnson to be the Nets next coach back in April.
June 18th, 2010 at 9:05 pm
What about a trade that gave Parker, and our number 20 pick and a sign and trade for Mahinmi to the Hawks for Bibby and Horford? We get a vet point guard with shooting range and good creation to come off the bench, and a high energy big whose a good defender and a good o-rebounder. The hawks get another legit all-star and finisher in Parker to surround Johnson and Smith, a athletic big that might work better in their tempo, and another solid 1st round draft choice to shop SF’s and C’s. The money works, and I can see upside for both teams. What do y’all think?
June 19th, 2010 at 4:30 am
@ idahospur - I agree with you. It’s time for somebody else in the West to advance to the Finals. Of course, I’m hoping for the Spurs to be that team next year. Let’s just hope for the best during this off season!
June 19th, 2010 at 5:15 am
@Jim
I agree with the remarks about Tony’s pedigree and I think the spurs are thinking the same way. The more I think about it, the more I think there won’t be too much trading for the top picks in the draft unless they are swaps for similar high drafts and change. Reason: GFC impact - everyone wants the value of cheap rookie contracts right now. Underperforming franchises are likely modelling off what OKC are doing, rather than what the lakers are doing. The lakers are full of stars in their prime - meaning trying to build a team to beat them is a 2 year window. In 3 years time? Rule changes, collective bargain decisions, salary cap levels etc will have an impact on what makes an elite team in the NBA. The Spurs are spending coin now, but I think they are also trying to inexpensively develop talent to build around the post- Duncan and Manu era…..you need a little luck though to speed the process to championship contenders again. Maybe this isn’t the year to gamble on draft picks though…
June 19th, 2010 at 7:27 am
Spurs have to be thinking future long-term at this point. Sure it would be nice to get Duncan another ring, but what happened to Houston after the Hakeem years? I don’t think the FO wants that.
June 19th, 2010 at 8:24 am
I think that any amount of hardship is worth a championship. Was Boston’s single championship worth the trouble they could have rebuilding? Absolutely. Screw the long term future. You get every championship you can. It’s not for Duncan. It’s for all of us, all of them.
June 19th, 2010 at 8:28 am
DieHard- Tiago top ten in the world??? Jesus.
Tony Parker isnt a top 5 PG. Rondo, Nash, Dwilliams, Paul, Chauncy…..
I dont think we should ever let Bibby on our team. First of all he just throws up bricks, and hes ugly as sin.
I like the Harris thing. We would get size, more athletic, and better shooting.
I agree that we have a grade trade piece in Parker and should look to get something out of it (player and pick) before we just let him walk. Hes French anyway so good riddance.
Funny how my name took tons of bashing and now it seems as though you all have jumped on!
June 19th, 2010 at 8:55 am
So Devin Harris is a better shooter than Tony now? Funny, Tony’s a career 49% shooter, and 31% from 3-point range. Devin Harris is a career 44% shooter, and 30% from 3-point range. Better shooter, my foot. And he doesn’t have Tony’s speed, either. And you’re probably better off not even mentioning the assist rate. Tony is better than Harris at pretty much every part of the game, but maybe you don’t see that simply because he’s French.
June 19th, 2010 at 9:27 am
Tim C.
June 19th, 2010 at 8:55 am
“Tony is better than Harris at pretty much every part of the game, but maybe you don’t see that simply because he’s French.”
Tony is indeed better than Devin Harris, but there’s also a solid chance he walks at the end of this year or wants a much fatter contract. Devin is tied down for the next 3 years at $8.5mil/year or roughly 2/3 of what Parker is due to make. That’s a fairly reasonable contract if you consider his skills. Consider this: two seasons ago both Parker and Harris had career years. Parker averaged 22pt, 6.9 assts, and 3.1 rebounds on 50% shooting. Harris averaged 21.3pts, 6.9 assts, and 3.3 rebounds on 44% shooting. Besides the shooting percentage, (Tony had a better FG% and Harris a better FT%) their numbers were virtually identical. If we could get a good PG who is tied down for the next 3 years PLUS a top 3 pick for Parker, then this deal would make sense. At least from a Spurs perspective.
June 19th, 2010 at 10:15 am
I can’t wait to see Splitter, Manu and Blair on the floor at the same time. There will be some sick passing and putbacks going on.
June 19th, 2010 at 10:51 am
Tim- Yes, Harris is a better shooter than tony. Harris can create a shot off the dribble, tony cant. Tony cant hit FTs either. Tony is a better pick and roll player whose FG% are raised due to his elite speed and finishing off the pick and roll.
Harris would fit much better with Jefferson and Manu.
Parker would be the logical choice if Duncan were 8 years younger.
Devin and a top pick for Parker. It would be foolish to NOT do that
June 19th, 2010 at 11:00 am
Patrick
June 18th, 2010 at 7:17 pm
“We can really start to compete with the Lakers in the West with Splitter, Duncan, McDyess, and Blair.”
No we can’t. Lets be rational.
June 19th, 2010 at 11:24 am
@Hobson13
“If we could get a good PG who is tied down for the next 3 years. PLUS a top 3 pick for Parker, then this deal would make sense. At least from a Spurs perspective.”
Yeah, “at least from a Spurs perspective.” I can’t believe so many of you guys are acting like NJ would do this. Why make stuff like this up. It ain’t happening. Keep in mind that:
1) Prokhorov has already indicated he’s not inclined to throw money at a Boozer, Lee or Amare. You can bet on this, now that the defensive-minded Little General is in charge.
2) Meanwhile, Favors is projected to become a defensive phenom. You think Avery wants to trade away the chance to develop an Amare talent into a great two-way all-NBA power forward? Just think if Amare had been drafted by a Greg Popovich type. You guys think they trade away the perfect compliment to the young center Lopez, just to get a marginal upgrade for Harris??
3) Harris and AJ like each other alot. Harris was rooting for AJ to be their coach, over Coach K and others, months ago. AJ meanwhile, was always pushing for Devin Harris to be an all-star defensively, and would prefer Harris today over TP because of his defensive ability. Not to mention, he’s cheaper, younger, and locked-in under contract.
As for it being (a never-gonna-happen, but) good trade for the Spurs, yes, it would potentially make us better in the long run to get a chance at a top of the lottery bigman, something that we might never be in the running to get for as long as TD has just played the previous year. And Harris would be a more than adequate, and cheaper, replacement for TP. But if we are in win-now mode, the move is questionable. Doesn’t matter though, cuz you guys might as well start coming up with Greg Oden scenarios or something.
That said, I think it would be interesting to have polls on this site. Just to see how the votes stack up in favor of such hypothetical trades as this NJ one.
On that note, anyone interested in giving up another Spanish league MVP’s rights to Houston for the #14, Ariza & Battier, and maybe Lowry in order to dump RJ? What if we have to include the #20?
June 19th, 2010 at 11:45 am
td4life,
uhh… maybe if we don’t have to give up the 20th pick, but only if we know we are picking up a good big somewhere else. Which I’m having trouble imagining. I guess if could also buy Orlando’s first rounder, which is for sale, then we could gamble one or two picks on Larry Sanders, Hassan Whiteside, or Kevin Seraphin? And still get Elliot Williams, James Anderson or both. Or even Xavier Henry. Your proposal makes losing out on Babbit, or Paul George a non-issue. No need to pick Quincy Pondexter or Stanley Robinson, either.
June 19th, 2010 at 12:22 pm
Actually, speaking as a guy who follows the Nets, Harris wouldn’t be that hard to pry away. Unless you missed last season, he’s been very injury prone and his shooting totally vanished. Not to mention his defense vanished too. He was getting destroyed by role players last year like Jarrett Jack. His main problem is he’s more concerned about drawing the foul than he is about finishing. He just flips the ball up there, hoping for the call most of the time after contact. So yeah, Harris would not be hard to get. Not for Tony though, not like they could use him. They already have a ton of cap space now, Tony as an expiring would be useless.
Oh and the Nets are pretty much guaranteed to pursue a top flight PF in the draft this year.
And actually, Favors is pretty raw-ish and could just as likely turn out to be a bust. Trading the number 3 is not out of the question. But not for anything the Spurs could give. Even for Harris the Spurs don’t really have anything they could use. Outside of Tiago’s rights that is. They did after all ask for his rights in the Vince Carter negotiations before.
June 19th, 2010 at 12:29 pm
@TD4life,
Who really knows what is and isn’t possible when it comes to trades? Did anyone predict the Philly/Sacto trade this last week? Of course not. The only thing we can do is speculate as to what makes the most sense. I would bet that the Spurs make a move that none of us predicted, even after the dozens of trade speculations we’ve thrown around over the past several months.
“1) Prokhorov has already indicated he’s not inclined to throw money at a Boozer, Lee or Amare.”
I won’t even pretend to buy that. He’s also said he wants to win a championship within 5 years. If he truly wants to compete, how is he going to do that by not using the available cap space he has this summer? I’ve yet to see a team with massive cap space simply sit on it when it could be used to get (usually overpay) an available big name (and semi big name) FA. And this summer is stacked in the FA department. Lebron, Wade, and Bosh aren’t going to NJ. He would take one of the cats you mentioned in a second to pair him with Lopez.
“2) Meanwhile, Favors is projected to become a defensive phenom. You think Avery wants to trade away the chance to develop an Amare talent into a great two-way all-NBA power forward?”
Yes, it is possible that Favors could be special, but as Jim Henderson points out, it is FAR from any guarantee. Besides, who has Avery Johnson ever developed? When he went to Dallas, he walked onto a veteran team. He attempted to develop Harris for several seasons but then proceded to unload him to the Nets for Kidd.
” 3) Harris and AJ like each other alot.”
Do they? If you read through the BS in this article, you see they’ve had far from a wonderful relationship. Of course Harris would present that differently now, but what do you expect. Avery is the new coach and isn’t leaving anytime soon.
http://www.nj.com/nets/index.ssf/2010/06/despite_rocky_past_devin_harri.html
“anyone interested in giving up another Spanish league MVP’s rights to Houston for the #14, Ariza & Battier, and maybe Lowry in order to dump RJ? What if we have to include the #20?”
So we trade RJ and Splitter for two SF’s and the #14? (Kyle Lowry is a restricted agent and would complicate the deal) I like the idea of getting Ariza, but he and Battier are very similar players. Both are SF who are good defenders, but poor shooters. Sure our perimeter defense would be better, but neither can space the floor. By giving away Splitter, who would be able to come in and help Duncan? I suppose we could pick a PF or C at the #14 spot, but he probably wouldn’t be able to come in a make an immediate impact.
June 19th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
@muwu
That’s exactly my point. They don’t trade the #3 and Harris for TP. As for Splitter and TP for Harris and #3, that’s a gamble for both sides. This is the kind of move SA would make if they really think their near-term window is closed. Pop & Co have indicated interest Favors over Cousins (which is where all this speculation began), but NJ needs a PF more than a backup center.
June 19th, 2010 at 6:18 pm
td4life
June 19th, 2010 at 11:24 am
I’m not sure why you keep “overvaluing a #3 pick”? Perhaps you missed a few previous posts I’ve made on the subject. Here’s two excerpts, from two separate posts:
Jim Henderson
June 4th, 2010 at 8:49 pm
“……..Okay, I took a spin through the the 12 drafts from 1996 through 2007, with the intent to look at the draft picks 1-5 …….. Here’s what I found, draft # in parentheses:
1-5 picks, just ONE all-star appearance or better:
1996 – Iverson (1), Marbury (4), R. Allen (5)
1997 – Duncan (1), Billups (3)
1998 – Jamison (4), V. Carter (5)
1999 – Brand (1), B. Davis (3)
2000 – K. Martin (1)
2001 – P. Gasol (3)
2002 – Y. Ming (1)
2003 – James (1), Anthony (3), Bosh (4), Wade (5)
2004 – Howard (1)
2005 – D. Williams (3), C. Paul (4)
2006 – ZERO
2007 – Durant (2)
20 ONE-TIME or better all-stars out of 12 drafts from the top five picks. The MEDIAN is 1.5 one-time all-stars or better players yielded out of the top five picks in the average draft. Basically, a team has about a 30% chance of drafting a one-time or better all-star out of the top five picks. Average seasons played by the players listed in these drafts, about nine. By far, the best draft years for top five picks were 1996 and 2003.”
As you can see, even the chance of getting a one-time or better all-star from the top five picks is not very high. Something to consider.”
……AND, the odds are even more unlikely to get a “franchise” player, which Tyler & I mutually agreed were the following players for the draft years 1996-2007:
Iverson (1) (1996)
Duncan (1) (1997)
James (1) (2003)
Wade (5) (2003)
Howard (1) (2004)
Williams (3) (2005)
Paul (4) (2005)
Durant (2) (2007)
• Jim Henderson
June 9th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
“Lets hone in on the top five picks, since the common perception is that we would have a good chance at getting a “franchise player” if we were to somehow secure a top five pick, and acquiring a top five pick is often considered by many imperative to winning a championship.
I’ll start by just listing some facts from my “little study”:
– draft years looked at – 1996 through 2007
– number of draft years looked at – 12
– TOTAL number of top five picks – 60
– Number of “franchise players” – 8
– Number of drafts “franchise players” came from – 6
– Number of “franchise players” that were #1 picks – 4
– Number of “franchise players” that were 1-3 picks – 6
From this data:
– overall, cumulative odds of drafting a franchise player from one of the top five picks – 13%
– odds of having just ONE franchise player come out of the top five picks in any given draft year – 33%
– odds of having TWO franchise players come out of the top five picks in any given draft year – 17%
– odds the number one pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 33%
– odds the number 2-3 pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 17%
– odds the number 4-5 pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 17%
– odds the number two pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 8%
– odds the number three pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 8%
– odds the number four pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 8%
– odds the number five pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 8%
Granted, this is limited data, based on just 12 years of drafts, but as you can see, the chances of drafting a franchise player appear to be very slim, even for those teams that get into the top-five selection order of the draft, by virtue of a POOR record, a “big” trade, and/or a bit of LUCK. Furthermore, you can see that the “cream of the crop” generally rises quickly from pick five up to pick one (4 franchise players from the top pick, just one each from picks #2, #3, #4, & #5).
Thus, for those that want to trade up to the number 2-5 picks, you have approximately an 8% chance of drafting a “franchise player”. I’d think long and hard on that one. Generally speaking, in my view, it’s simply too risky to trade a guy like Parker for less than a number one pick, which just isn’t going to happen.”
Bottom-line: the #3 pick in this draft has about a 1 in 4 chance of just getting selected to the all-star team just one-time or more, and a 1 in 13 chance of becoming something “really” special. So giving up a 3-time all-star at age 28, with 3 championships, and a FINALS MVP, who’s a better fit with his former Spur teammate & new “Pop-like” coach of the Nets, for a better than average point with NO all-star appearances, and essentially the crap shoot of a #3 pick, is not an outrageous stretch. And I’ll tell you right now, Prokhorov would LOVE to have Parker running the show with Brooks Lopez & Amare side by side on that front line. That team has a chance to make the playoffs in their first year together in the East, because they also have a budding triple-double machine in Williams at the 3 spot, Courtney Lee at SG, and Ji coming off the bench.
As I said though, the key is, can they sign one of the better free agent PF’s, AND can they get Parker an adequate long-term contract extension that he would be interested in accepting, with still the unknowns of FA ahead AFTER draft day? That’s where I see the timing and financial practicalities of the deal ultimately spelling doom for the trade, but not because Parker would “clearly” not be worth it to New Jersey.
June 19th, 2010 at 7:11 pm
td4life
June 19th, 2010 at 11:24 am
“……anyone interested in giving up another Spanish league MVP’s rights to Houston for the #14, Ariza & Battier, and maybe Lowry in order to dump RJ? What if we have to include the #20?”
Well, for one, NJ would not give up BOTH Ariza & Battier in such a deal. And secondly, we would have an overlap at SF (which is a problem that will become more apparent for the Rockets this year with the late season addition of Kevin Martin, and BOTH Ariza & Battier healthy), and would still not have filled our gaping hole: TALL DEFENDER IN THE PAINT. And finally, I don’t see a team like Houston being particularly interested in RJ’s expiring deal.
Hobson13
June 19th, 2010 at 12:29 pm
“I like the idea of getting Ariza, but he and Battier are very similar players. Both are SF who are good defenders, but poor shooters. Sure our perimeter defense would be better, but neither can space the floor.”
I think the Rockets keep Ariza for the simple fact that he’s younger than Battier. But actually, in my view, Battier is a better fit on the Spurs because he’s less of a steals guy, more fundamentally sound defensively (as well as a better shot-blocker), and in fact does a much better job of stretching the floor (career 3-point % of 38.5, versus 32.1).
I actually would be open to the following, to get Battier: RJ & McDyess for Battier & Jared Jefferies. The Rockets might go for that, because they have significant redundancy going on at the SF (as you noted, Ariza & Battier have VERY similar games). At least RJ gives them a better rebounding, up-tempo look at the SF, and a large expiring contract for 2011. Dice gives them experience, size, depth, mid-range shooter from the PF spot (and a team option for 2011). Yao & Scola could use some veteran help on that front line to help battle the Lakers by committee. Battier on the other hand, really stabilizes our perimeter “D”, and can knock down the three. Jefferies gets us a bit younger and taller, opens the way more for Blair, and has a 6.5 million dollar expiring deal (Battier as well, at 6.9 million - good chance to resign him). Shane Battier is a great character guy, a very consistent player, and he fits our team like a glove. That would be one MAJOR problem (in my view) taken care of. Now if we can add Splitter and another shooter, we’d be heading in the right direction.
That said, I’d just as soon make the deal with GS, because Turiaf is a better fit than Jeffries, though it doesn’t address our perimeter “D” as well.
June 20th, 2010 at 12:41 am
@jim henderson
It’s not so much that “I” overvalue the #3 pick, it’s that I understand that lottery teams value their top picks very highly. For the same reason that we’d take Harris and the #3, they will keep them. NJ has a lot of holes. I have already stated repeatedly that I don’t buy the AJ dislikes Harris line. And Harris preferred AJ to all other candidates well prior of his hire. The #3 gives NJ a lot more upside than TP does over Harris. Most of the FA PFs are defensively weak. They have a young center and can add some vet leadership w/o giving up their talent, so they will put together a team that can be competitive long term. (Avery said in his press conference that, in addition to this summer, “there’s always NEXT summer.” when talking about adding talent, and their cap space.) If Harris and AJ really don’t work out they can trade later, or just sign a Billups, TP, CP3 strait-up at a future time. Avery is one coach, given the team he captained, and given the troubles he faced coaching the Mavs, that I am QUITE SURE is dreaming about two things in particular: (1) Twin Towers (2) A great defensive bigman… they keep the pick. Coaches and GMs tend to think that they are gonna be the smart guys who draft well, and other guys are gonna draft busts, owners also tend to get giddy with the possible upside… they keep the pick.
As for the Houston trade…
I was just trying to cleverly demonstrate how even a trade that gets us great talent back, including an ideal spur (Battier), and lots of athletic youth and potential, is HIGHLY problematic, because Tiago Splitter is really the best new asset we can hope for. He is, essentially, THE key. Regardless of the hype, I do not think a better bigman is attainable by the Spurs. Unless POP & RC are enthralled with several draft sleepers enough to bet on the more distant future, and/or believe in, say,Tyson Chandler, we can not expect much. Nor expect much improvement next year. To that end, I am having trouble imaging any better scenario than Splitter + the GS trade. Unless we somehow pull off a major multi-team trade. (BTW, I think Azubuike, Hill, and Manu represents sufficient shooting, and that Maggatte, et al improve our perimeter defence. I also think GS must realize that their Stephan Curry window is not gonna be a Maggette and Turiaf window, so they might as well cut payroll, acquire picks, and develop young talent.)
June 20th, 2010 at 2:01 am
Jesus… I thought TP for Harris + #3 was a dead subject? This scenario is even more improbable (it was pretty much far-fetched from the beginning) now that AJ is the head coach of the Nets. Even if the Nets are willing for such a trade, they’ll demand at least Splitter and the #20 pick/Blair in addition to TP. I like Favors a lot, but at this point when Splitter will likely sign with the Spurs and Favors won’t likely contribute immediately, it’d be much safer to hold on to Splitter and hope that #20 develops into a special player.
June 20th, 2010 at 2:35 am
Ian (not to be confused with “Yan”) gets it.
June 20th, 2010 at 2:55 am
Isn’t it reasonable to anticipate that Tiago Splitter will instantly be the best center we’ve had since Robinson left?
Perhaps it’s overly optimistic to think he can come in and be offer equivalent value to an ’09-’10 Bogut or Noah, but is it? I think anticipating production on par with, or superior to, what Charlotte got out of Nzar is the minumum (and that’s not to bad)… overall equivalent production to young guys Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Nene, Okafor for that matter… better return than Roy Hibbert right out of the gate is not at all unreasonable… which probably makes him a top 15, maybe even top 10 center even his rookie year. Certainly by year 2 and 3. It’s more a question of how he performs against the likes of LA in the playoffs, which I think is the only real sticking point in terms of his upside.
June 20th, 2010 at 3:53 am
@t d4life
I tend to agree with you about GM sentiment with draft picks. I’m not sure its just the management that gets giddy with the picks though…being a business and all, one creates alot of hope bringing in all this fresh talent that will one day “win it all”. That sells season tickets and jerseys…
Spurs are selling ‘the big ol’ engine that still can’ with a few young pieces.
@jim
disagree about Iverson and Williams as franchise players….top tier talent yes, but franchise builders no….Iverson had fantastic defenders around him for a year or so when they made the finals, and he was in his absolute prime…but a franchise player to build a team around for a decade? We all saw how that went. Franchise player is handed out way to easily in my opinion. Kobe, Duncan, Shaq, Lebron, maybe Wade, maybe Durant, maybe Howard, definitely KG…you get my drift…not Bosh, or Jermaine Oneal or tracy Mc grady or Vince. See the difference between dominant offensive players and dominant players period. One sells jerseys, the other end of season parades.
June 20th, 2010 at 4:11 am
On that whole franchise player tip - to clarify my thoughts: A franchise player to me is someone who is essentially untradeable with the exception of a past of prime player who has played for other teams who is due $20m like Shaq….I ammend my take on Wade to “probably” franchise player. I wouldn’t trade Timmy even if he was getting $30m next year - everything the franchise stands for would be wiped out in one trade. Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitski are interesting dilemmas; they are so valuable to a team, yet they require alot more pieces to succeed than the standard franchise player. Maybe they are franchise leaders, rather than “the franchise”?
June 20th, 2010 at 9:13 am
td4life
June 20th, 2010 at 2:55 am
“To that end, I am having trouble imaging any better scenario than Splitter + the GS trade.”
After all is said and done, I agree. The GS trade is the quickest way to rebuild the bench with young/talented players and Splitter should alleviate Duncan sufficiently. IF the GS trade were made, I would suggest us drafting a big man at the #20 instead of a SF, unless of course someone incredible falls to us. Since the GS trade would net us Maggette, we wouldn’t have an immediate need for a SF. I would certainly like us to look at a long, athletic PF like Larry Sanders who although would be a long-term project, may pay handsome dividends in 2-3 years.
June 20th, 2010 at 10:46 am
Would somebody mind recapping the trade proposal to GS? Apparantly i missed it. Thanks -
June 20th, 2010 at 11:29 am
Jacob,
There were actually two lines of thought regarding the GS trade. Let’s assume they ask for the #20 pick along with RJ. The two proposed trades would look like this:
#1) RJ and #20 for Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike, and Ronny Turiaf
#2) RJ and #20 for Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike, and Anthony Randolph
Realistically, if either of these trades went down, we would have a starting SF and two really nice bench players. This trade plus Tiago Splitter would get us younger, bigger, and also help our outside shooting.
June 20th, 2010 at 11:49 am
td4life
June 20th, 2010 at 12:41 am
“The #3 gives NJ a lot more upside than TP does over Harris.”
Perhaps, but how about if we throw the #20 pick into the deal? That is, if the Spur FO REALLY likes Favors, Cousins, etc.
Otherwise, as I said, the GS deal is our safest, best option.
Ian
June 20th, 2010 at 2:01 am
“Jesus… I thought TP for Harris + #3 was a dead subject? This scenario is even more improbable (it was pretty much far-fetched from the beginning) now that AJ is the head coach of the Nets.”
I’ve always stated from the beginning that the deal has only an outside chance of ever coming to fruition, but to suggest it’s completely far-fetched, and even more so with the addition of Johnson as coach is ridiculous, in my view. Anyone who thinks that Johnson would rather have Harris over TP is either crazy or clueless. In fact, Harris is only ONE year younger than TP.
Easy B
June 20th, 2010 at 3:53 am
“disagree about Iverson and Williams as franchise players….”
Geez, what do you got to do to be a “franchise” player? Iverson averaged 30 points per game FIVE times in his career, had more than 2 steals per game 9 straight times upon entering the league, and led a mediocre team to the NBA Finals in 2000-2001.
All Williams has done is averaged 19+ points & 10+ assists per game in three of his firsts five years in the league, all by the age of 25 (the ONLY other guys to EVER do that were Oscar Robertson, Isiah Thomas, Kevin Johnson, & Chris Paul!), and led his Jazz team to the playoffs in each of his first five years in the NBA.
If we leave them off the list, you’re just making my main case that much stronger: it’s VERY difficult, and you have to be VERY LUCKY, to draft a “franchise” player with one of the first five picks in the draft.
“One sells jerseys, the other end of season parades.”
Remember, not ALL “franchise” players have the good fortune to win titles. For example, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, George Gervin, etc. were clearly “franchise” players.
“Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitski are interesting dilemmas; they are so valuable to a team, yet they require alot more pieces to succeed than the standard franchise player. Maybe they are franchise leaders, rather than “the franchise”?”
ALL “franchise” players REQUIRE A LOT more pieces to win a title, and NONE of them are “the franchise”, not even TD. You appear to be elevating “franchise PLAYERS” to god-like status. They are more simply, the most valuable PLAYER of the franchise, the heart of the system on the court, and are able to CONSISTENTLY dominate games, particular BIG, pressure-packed ones.
June 20th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
@Jacob
RJ (and the #20, if necessary. Or next years first rounder, instead?) for Maggette, Azubuike, and Turiaf.
It was rumored that Anthony Randolf was available to move Maggette, or more likely Monta Ellis. But he would need net them more talent in return than just an expiring contract. He’s young and very skilled. Jim Henderson pointed out that Turiaf is a better fit for the spurs, and Randolf’s development minutes would conflict with the D Blair’s.
Another variation is Anthony Morrow, who is a restricted FA and would be a good fit in Chicago, Sacramento, next to LeBron, etc… places he wouldn’t not have to worry about sharing PT with Manu & Hill, and teams could offer him bigger $$, we’ll see. But Morrow would be a very exciting player to add. He’s a hard worker, a great marksman, and has stated his goal to become a great hustle defender. Azubuike has a good all-around game. Maggette is big and physical, is aggressive, draws fouls all night long, has shown flashes of his defensive prowess against Kobe, etc, and has been sought by Pop during both his FA summers. Finally there is the option of Reggie Williams. Lesser scenarios have the Spurs getting just, say, Turiaf and Maggette for RJ, and having to take on, say, Brandon Wright.
In addition to RJ (who is a better fit in GS), if GS gets Wesley Johnson or Aminu, then Maggette, Azubuike and/or Morrow are expendable. They could also be more willing to part with these guys if they could draft a good wing with the #20.
This rotation arguably addresses all of our major needs:
TD, Splitter, McD, Blair, Turiaf
Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Maggette, Azubuike
(Or, perhaps you subsequently trade 2 of the above for one superior player?)
June 20th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
td4life
June 20th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
“Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Maggette, Azubuike”
Dude, that’s a virtual 5-headed monster! For real. Especially if Tony improves his 3-pointer this summer, not to mention Hill showing more growth next season. But, smart, high percentage scorers across the perimeter, I like it…. I guess this means I’m rooting for Cousins to go to Philadelphia or Minnesota, and Sactown drafting Greg Monroe, setting up Golden State to draft an SF. On the other hand, maybe RJ alone is enough to make them swap, and they’ll want to replace Turiaf’s minutes. Who knows, I just hope we do get a significant overhaul as talented as this, this summer.
June 20th, 2010 at 3:06 pm
Thank you Hobson and Td4life for explaining it again. I can’t argue; those are both excellent trade options. I personally like the idea of maggette, azubuike and turiaf to meet more immediate needs. So, if Splitter comes over, who would fill out our roster? Temple, Hairston, Bonner? looks good!
Parker - Hill - Temple
Ginobili - Hairston
Maggette, Azubuike
Duncan - McDyess - Bonner
Splitter - Turiaf - Blair
June 20th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
I wouldn’t call a trade with GS unrealistic, but considering that the Spurs will pay heavy loads of luxury tax in the years to come esp. with Maggette on board, I just don’t see that happening. Unless Spurs are intending to let Parker walk after next season, RJ’s contract should just be left to expire and give Spurs some financial relief - that’s what I think anyway.
June 20th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
I think that the GS trade would be the best way to go.
Spurs get: Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike, and Anthony Randolph
GS get: RJ / 20
We dont have to play McDoosh anymore. Turiaf really isnt a better fit for SA compared to Randolph. Hes a worse rebounder scorer and FT shooter than Blair or Randolph.
WE NEED ATHLETIC PLAYERS inside to fit this “system.”
June 20th, 2010 at 5:54 pm
td4life
June 20th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
Yeah, that post pretty well summarizes why a deal with the Warriors is the best combination of being “realistic”, and filling the most holes on our roster in one fell swoop.
“This rotation arguably addresses all of our major needs:
TD, Splitter, McD, Blair, Turiaf
Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Maggette, Azubuike
(Or, perhaps you subsequently trade 2 of the above for one superior player?)”
That’s a pretty competitive team, with a good mix of talent, youth and experience. It would put us in the ballgame in year one, if everything went just right. Otherwise, after a full year of playing together, year two should be a killer season (Blair, Hill, Azubuike, & Splitter just getting that much better, and a burgeoning chemistry - maybe add a younger front line guy instead of McDyess in year one, or year two).
Ian
June 20th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
“Unless Spurs are intending to let Parker walk after next season, RJ’s contract should just be left to expire and give Spurs some financial relief – that’s what I think anyway.”
Understandable, but you’re NOT going to win a championship during Duncan’s window that way. Hey, look at the Lakers salaries! (I know it’s a “big” market, but …..). Also, Turiaf & Azubuike have expiring deals for a total of about 7.3 mil, so if things don’t go well this year, we don’t HAVE to resign them, or pick up the option on McDyess (4.5 million). And TD has just two more years on his contract, after which his 21 mil. comes off, or he is extended at a much lower salary. Paying the luxury tax is simply the price an owner pays if he truly wants a shot at “winning”.
Trade Tp
June 20th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
“Turiaf really isnt a better fit for SA compared to Randolph. Hes a worse rebounder scorer and FT shooter than Blair or Randolph.”
For one thing, Randolph has a smaller salary under contract, and has more upside, which are reasons why GS would be much less likely to part with him for RJ. And secondly, Randolph would invariably take minutes away from Blair, since both are very young, talented guys whose best position is the same, PF (THREE power forwards demanding time is way too much). Turiaf does not present a problem of REQUIRING minutes, is bigger and a better shot-blocker (something we need), and could platoon well at CENTER with Splitter.
June 20th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
@Ian
I second Jim Henderson’s response to your comments above. If the Spurs plan on contending for a championship in the TD era, they have to spend… I believe that if they were gonna shell out last season for RJ and McD, they’d spend similarly to put together this proposed, and much better, roster. And, again, there are plenty of expirings along the way to TD resigning in the summer after next.
So, Ian, of the 2 teams involved, I really don’t see SA as the one which would hesitate or have any misgivings with this trade.
June 20th, 2010 at 8:05 pm
Trade Tp
June 20th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
“We dont have to play McDoosh anymore. Turiaf really isnt a better fit for SA compared to Randolph. Hes a worse rebounder scorer and FT shooter than Blair or Randolph. WE NEED ATHLETIC PLAYERS inside to fit this “system.”
I agree. While both trades would vastly improve the Spurs, Randolph provides MUCH more scoring, shot blocking, and upside potential than Turiaf. He, Azebuike, Hill, Splitter, and Blair would be a NICE young core.
Jim Henderson
June 20th, 2010 at 5:54 pm
“For one thing, Randolph has a smaller salary under contract, and has more upside, which are reasons why GS would be much less likely to part with him for RJ.”
You do have a point with this, however, look at the Warriors depth chart. They have two legitimate C’s on their roster; Biedrins and Turiaf. Turiaf, like Randolph, is also a low cost option at center. On the other hand, they have 3 legitimate PF’s on their roster including Randolph. With the #6 pick and #20 they can easily pick up another PF to replace Randolph. My point is that a case could be made that Randolph is more expendable than Turiaf.
“And secondly, Randolph would invariably take minutes away from Blair, since both are very young, talented guys whose best position is the same, PF (THREE power forwards demanding time is way too much).”
I don’t think Pop would play 3 PF’s. First of all, if this trade went down, Bonner is bye-bye (which would help our salary cap situation a bit). Secondly, McDyess wouldn’t really even be needed. That would leave Blair starting and Randolph coming off the bench. Also, if Randolph can add another 20+ lbs, he can play the C position as well. He’s almost 6’11″ has unreal length and will be an EXCELLENT shot blocker with time.
Don’t get me wrong, guys, I would go for this trade either way around it. However, Randolph would certainly give this trade a much greater upside.
June 20th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
Hobson13,
I would love Randolf, in part because I am sceptical regarding the long-term value of D Blair. But I think Turiaf is the thicker body and of more use to us in the TD-era. It’s moot however, because the Warriors GM has stated that he will not trade Randolf this summer, unless there is a major player being gained in return. He told Randolf this directly this week. And this came in response to a rumoured Kevin Love trade, which is more than we could offer.
June 20th, 2010 at 11:03 pm
Hobson13
June 20th, 2010 at 8:05 pm
“Don’t get me wrong, guys, I would go for this trade either way around it. However, Randolph would certainly give this trade a much greater upside.”
Well, don’t get me wrong either, I’d be glad to take Randolph. He’s the more talented player, with still significant upside. If he could put on 20-25 pounds, improve his strength in the next 2 years, develop a low post game, and learn to defend better in the paint, I’d be thrilled to see him and Blair play side by side in the future. Randolph could rotate in for Splitter at center, and fill in for Blair when he’s resting. In the meantime though, TD would need to play more minutes at the center position than he’s used to, sharing that role with Splitter. The bottom line is, we would need to play TD less to be able to properly develop & play all three young guys. We’d have to keep TD’s minutes closer to 25, and give him some more rest days. We need to be serious about developing our young front court players, and that requires significant minutes.
As far as Turiaf & the Warriors: Turiaf is actually a PF as well, though he’s the best PF on their current roster to back-up Biedrins. But let’s face it, the Warriors, for whatever wacky reason, have never been too concerned about having centers, or even big, dominant PF’s for that matter. They love “small ball”, which is practically a “Nellie” trademark. And they have plenty of them: Radmonovic, Wright, and Tolliver, plus all the athletic guards & SF’s that they have. Now, if they suddenly want to begin to turn over another leaf, they can begin by drafting a PF/C with the 6th and/or 34th picks. They’d have a good shot at Monroe, Cousins, Davis, or Udoh at number 6 (to replace Randolph), and Brackins, Varnado, or Zoubek at number 34 (to replace Turiaf). Of course, they also need to draft their SF of the future, which could be Aminu, or maybe Johnson at number 6. So, hypothetically, in my view, it probably makes more sense for them to spend their number one pick on a SF, and their 4th pick of the second round on a guy to replace Turiaf as a back up to Biedrins. There’s a number of 2nd round picks that could do the trick. Plus, they could also resign their d-league guy that played with them this past spring, the 6’11″ Chris Hunter. To me, that would make more sense for them than to give up Randolph and be left with the hope that drafting those listed above at #6 will eventually pan out. It’s generally easier to replace a guy in a back-up role with less known NBA value (Turiaf), and no upside, than someone projected as an eventual full-time starter with more known NBA value (Randolph), with a bright future.
June 20th, 2010 at 11:20 pm
That’s right, the Warriors would also have the #20 pick (from us) to find a replacement for Turiaf, and a back-up to Biedrins. Perhaps Whiteside?
June 20th, 2010 at 11:33 pm
td4life
June 20th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
“I would love Randolf, in part because I am sceptical regarding the long-term value of D Blair.”
Blair should be amazing over the long-term. How many NBA players do you know that had TWO twenty/twenty games in their rookie season at age 20. None, it’s never happened before. He’ll do great. He just needs to work hard at his game (to overcome the height issues as best he can), get some playing time, and get a TALL defender next to him on the front line. Hopefully Splitter fits the bill.
“…..the Warriors GM has stated that he will not trade Randolf this summer, unless there is a major player being gained in return. He told Randolf this directly this week. And this came in response to a rumoured Kevin Love trade, which is more than we could offer.”
I’m not surprised. I just don’t think it’s as realistic to get Randolph in this deal, and Turiaf is still fairly young, but much more experienced, and is the bigger body, something we definitely need.
June 20th, 2010 at 11:59 pm
Trade Tp
June 20th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
“Turiaf really isnt a better fit for SA compared to Randolph. Hes a worse rebounder scorer and FT shooter than Blair or Randolph.
WE NEED ATHLETIC PLAYERS inside to fit this “system.”
Now, this looks pretty athletic to me:
Pretty sweet block in transition on Kobe, don’t you think?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3V0jTHOlRA
Also, Turiaf has a better career average in FT% than Blair, has more career shot blocks per game per 36 minutes than either Randolph or Blair, and is also a better defender in the paint than either of them. And that’s what we need: size, defense in the paint, & shot-blocking. We don’t need scoring or rebounding as much because that’s what Duncan, Blair, & McDyess do pretty well as a team, and Turiaf is adequate in these areas as well for the 15 minute per night role we need him for.
June 21st, 2010 at 1:32 am
some stats for anyone who’s interested:
Player MPG…EFF48M…PER…AFG%…(misc)
Turiaf 2o.8…22.79…12.7…0.582…(1.29blkpg)
Duncan 31.3…35.97…24.8…0.519…(1.5blkpg)
Blair 18.2…29.3…17.8…0.556
Maggette 29.7…29.96…20.4…0.523…(7.9FTA on .835FT%)
Azubuike 25.7…27.84…19.8…(.520AFG% career)
Jefferson 31.2…19.03…13.2…0.505
Parker 30.9…22.42…16.5…0.494
Ginobili 28.7…29.32…22.5…0.514
Hill 29.2…20.03…14.7…0.529
Splitter…???
Tony, of course, played through injury much of last season.
Azubuike’s numbers last season were a small statistical sample due to injury, so I subbed his career AFG% for his abnormally high shortened season number; his 3pt% & FT% were down significantly in his short season last year, while his FG% was way up.
Kelenna’s injury worry you?… here’s Reggie Williams:
32.6MPG…23.83EFF48M…16.oPER…0.553AFG%
As per the reasoning against the probability of picking up Randolf and of affording Morrow, I left them off.
June 21st, 2010 at 1:43 am
@Jim Henderson
Nice block by Ronny. This video show he’s not 6’10″ though, more like 6’8″ to 6’9″…not that I care too much, we could sure use him.
June 21st, 2010 at 4:59 am
Henderson- McD Duncan cant defend worth poop anymore. One block shouldnt HIGHLIGHT a players career. Thats the same thinking that gave us McDyess.
Randolph is a better player.
June 21st, 2010 at 7:08 am
Sorry to rain on everyone’s parade, but there’s not chance of the Golden State trades happening-especially not the one with Randolph. First of all, the team is up for sale (and won’t be sold before the draft) and there’s no effective management team currently in place. It’s similar to the paralysis that Atlanta had for a couple of seasons. Expect to see no trades with GS and some designed-by-committee, offensive-to-nobody draft choices. Second, about the only sure thing in Golden State right now is that Curry and Randolph are all but untouchable.
That said, I’d love to pick up a couple of their players. I’d forget Magette or Ellis, who while talented are hardly worth the price tag and headaches they cause. But Azubuike and Turiaf are very much Spurs-type players. Parker and Morrow would fit well in San Antonio, too.
Regarding some of the other trade ideas: Don’t league rules mandate that a team may not trade their 1st-round picks in consecutive years? If so, then the Spurs can’t trade their pick unless they pick up one in return. I’m also not sure whether they could draft for another team and then make the trade later.
June 21st, 2010 at 7:23 am
One more thing: I still think the most interesting player in this draft is DeMarcus Cousins. There are a lot of questions about him but he is unquestionably a great talent. Forget about Zach Randolph or Rasheed Wallace, to whom he is frequently compared. He’s much more talented than either of them. Having seen him play, he reminds me a lot more of Moses Malone, both in terms of attitude and talent. Sure, he’s a headache for your coach. But he’s a bigger headache for your opponents’ coaches. For all of the hype about John Wall, my alma mater Vanderbilt had a couple of guys who could defend him (Jermaine Beal, whom we should invite to training camp, and Jeffery Taylor, who is a likely lottery pick next year). But despite a lot of front court players, including an All-SEC center, we had no answer for Big Cuz.
There’s a nice feature on him from ESPN’s Andy Katz:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2010/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&page=cousins-100620
I think that a no-nonsense team like the Spurs, with a strong coach and a roster full of real leaders (especially Manu, TD, and Blair) would be a great place for Cousins-especially with Tim Duncan to learn from and pair with.
I actually think this draft is pretty loaded-there are five strong talents at the top and lots of good possibilities down into the second round. ANY of the top five picks would fit our needs very well. (Imagine if we could add an effective wing player like Turner or Johnson to our roster this year, as well as Splitter.) If there’s any way we could pick up a top-five pick and retain that other first-rounder, even if we have to downgrade at PG from Tony Parker, I think we should do it.
June 21st, 2010 at 9:24 am
@ Tim Surrey
To get by the rule, a team can draft for another and then immediately trade the pick.
June 21st, 2010 at 12:30 pm
@Trade TP
You are missing the point, Randolf is not attainable. Certainly not for RJ.
@Tim in Surry
I don’t think trading for DMC is in any way more reasonable than the GS trade, although Anthony Randolf is not happening. GS cutting long-term payroll by losing Maggette only facilitates the pending sale.
The only team that would be inclined to trade their top 5 pick is Philly, who are requiring the other team to take back Elton Brand’s 3 years @15mil per. Even in his prime EB could never take over a game in the final minutes. Never. But, I guess this means you are advocating sending RJ, TP, and change for Iggy (4 years), Elton, and the #2. Philly would LOVE the 2 expirings, but even just an RJ for EB is WAY to pricey for the Spurs… this is the one top 5 draft team that would covet the Spurs assets and the Spurs would not make this trade. What’s more, with the #2 pick, all indications are that the Spurs would select Favors (which is what launched all kinds of 76ers-Spurs trade speculation over the last month) over Cousins anyway.
June 21st, 2010 at 12:38 pm
Td- I understand that GS wouldnt want to part with Randolph. The point is what type of players we need. Turiaf V Randolph.. That would be like saying we need McDoosh more than Blair.
June 21st, 2010 at 12:38 pm
Speaking of the draft, this is an excerpt from an ESPN The Magaize article that polled potenital draftees:
“Who’s your dream team to be picked by?
Sure, many rooks (11.7%) want the Lakers to hand them a jersey. But the team most named was the Spurs, with 16.7% of the vote. Respondents point to tradition, Gregg Popovich (one of five coaches in NBA history with four league titles) and playing with 12-time All-Star Tim Duncan. “I want to go somewhere I can learn,” says one great college big man. The nightmare team? The Bucks. Explains a projected second-rounder: “They’re young, but they always seem young.”
Interesting. I wouldn’t have thought the Spurs would be at the top of the list.
June 21st, 2010 at 12:49 pm
Tim in Surrey
June 21st, 2010 at 7:08 am
“Sorry to rain on everyone’s parade, but there’s not chance of the Golden State trades happening”
Number one, the trade doesn’t necessarily have to happen before the draft. Number two, the Warriors cannot afford to stand pat right now, new ownership in place or not. Current management/owner needs to make moves this summer that they believe will make their team more valuable to the prospective owners that have expressed interest (e.g., Larry Ellison, etc.). One major and obvious way of doing that is to clear out any long-term expensive contracts that the team does not see as adding value to the teams long-term future as a franchise. Maggette & Turiaf certainly qualify (getting Azubuike gives us incentive to take on Maggette’s contract, and he is an upgrade over RJ), and RJ’s large expiring contract will free up even more cap space for them in 2011.
What the Warriors should want to do is build their team around Curry. To do that, they need to start getting rid of some excess baggage, and the sooner the better for a franchise that has only been modestly competitive a handful of seasons over the past 30+ years. They’re lucky they have good fans up their (I used to live there), but it’s a real shame that for a market of that size, they haven’t been able to field some strong teams. In fact, it’s really a disgrace, and needs to stop. With Curry, and some other young talent & high draft picks, the next few years is ripe with potential, but they need to get moving, and start making some smart, shrewd decisions for this franchise. There’s nothing smarter at present than making this team financially leaner, and bringing its direction as a team into sharper focus. To do this, they need to start weeding out the most expensive and most extraneous parts to their direction as a team. And if they don’t know what their direction is by now, they need to fire all their management today, not tomorrow. After all, I’m sure none of the prospective new owners are particularly enamored with a 75 year old coach that has been the face of that franchise off and on for decades. With the teams he’s fielded over the years, would you? And if his buddy, GM Larry Reilly, can’t bring more clarity to that muddle of a team, what good is he either? The bottom-line is they need to get moving now. You mess around with Curry for too long and he’ll bail when his contract’s up at the end of next year. And that would be a tragedy; because that guy is that good. As management, you must be able to tell Curry that you’re reducing salary this year to bring in a major free agent in 2011; that you have a well-thought-out PLAN to bring a WINNER to the Bay Area in the next few years. If you don’t, the price for that team is going to go down by the day. Hopefully current owner, Chris Cohan, is not too stupid to understand that.
June 21st, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Trade Tp
June 21st, 2010 at 12:38 pm
“The point is what type of players we need. Turiaf V Randolph.”
No, the point is, Randolph is not a viable option. So, in that case, the matter is simple: can Turiaf help this team (much better shot-blocker, & 9 years younger than McDyess)? And I say yes.
June 21st, 2010 at 1:49 pm
i am of fan of turiaf. good defender and excellent mid-range jump shooter. no post game, however.
jim, i’m not sure i have asked you this before, but what is it about blair that makes you think he has “boozer-like” potential.
i think what we saw from blair last season is what we will see for the bulk of his career. his ceiling is relatively low.
June 21st, 2010 at 1:58 pm
Also, via Chad Ford at ESPN, one GM’s mock draft:
20. Spurs: Daniel Orton
Note: The Spurs need a big man and they could rip out the heart of folks in OKC if they take Orton one pick ahead of the Thunder.
Pretty interesting. Though we probably need a wing more than anything (assuming we bring in Splitter), taking a young big like Orton would certainly signal that we see something special. He’s certainly a top 20 talent. And it also does make some sense - we’ve been trying to move up in the draft. Indy’s #10, as has been rumored, would certainly ensure that we would be able to grab Orton, who should go somewhere in the 10-20 range. However, I’d also take everything a GM, coach, player, or agent says with a grain of salt at this point in the process. Interesting nonetheless.
June 21st, 2010 at 1:59 pm
and another thing. some much trade tp talk…
what are the odds the sours trade george hill over TP? tony parker is unstoppable when heatlthy, experienced, and still in his prime. don’t think george hill can achieve the same level as parker.
any thoughts? anyone?!?!?
June 21st, 2010 at 2:32 pm
@rj - I’ve heard that the Pacers might be interested in G Hill, since Hill is their hometown kid and Pacers needing a PG and all. I’m not saying the Pacers are talking to Spurs FO for a potential trade, but rather assuming Hill could be their candidate for the PG spot. Spurs can get that #10 pick and perhaps Brandon Rush added in that trade as well if such trade would happen.
(note: this isn’t my opinion but rather what I read from a post/article written by someone else, so this is more of a scenario than a rumor I think)
June 21st, 2010 at 2:34 pm
Jim Henderson
June 21st, 2010 at 12:49 pm
“Number two, the Warriors cannot afford to stand pat right now, new ownership in place or not. Current management/owner needs to make moves this summer that they believe will make their team more valuable to the prospective owners.”
Absolutely. I like the energy and passion the Warriors fans had several years ago when they beat Dallas in the 1st round. They had an INSANE atmosphere in their arena and certainly deserve better than what Don Nelson and the FO have given them over the past several years. They have some nice young pieces and are primed to get another good player at the #6 spot this year.
With that said, you are absolutely right. They need to unload higher priced pieces (Maggette) that are too old to be building blocks. However, in order to do that, they will have to bribe a team with a piece like Azubuike. Unloading Maggette serves two purposes; #1 it makes the team more attractive to sell, #2 it clears the way to bring in a FA next summer. Common sense (and rumors) dictates that they WILL trade Maggette. The only questions are when and for what will they give up in return.
In a few years, GS can be a good team with Ellis, Curry, Randolph, Biedrins, Morrow (assuming they resign him) and DeMarcus Cousins (assuming they get him). All of these players are fantastic young pieces that can create a good nucleus. If GS was really serious about becoming a Playoff team, they would unload Don Nelson, the worst coach in the league, and clean out their entire FO. I promise you that if Pop had all that young talent, they would be an unreal team in just a couple of years.
I can’t wait for the draft this week. I have a feeling that the Spurs are going to make a big move in the next few days. Check out these two comments by Chad Ford.
Comment #1 “And if the Pacers and Hornets can’t move down, they, along with the Bulls, might look to get out of the draft completely.”
Comment #2 “From what I can gather, the Pacers, Hornets, Raptors, Spurs and Thunder are the most active right now.”
He says the Pacers and Hornets are looking to trade won or get out so that means that the Raps, Thunder, and Spurs must super active and really be looking to move up. Something may be a brewin’.
June 21st, 2010 at 2:53 pm
@rj - I also heard that Chad Ford recently said something along the lines of ‘Spurs will likely trade one of their two PGs (Parker and Hill) to move higher up in the draft’. I don’t put much trust into Ford’s “insider” information personally, but rumors are certainly flying around involving the Spurs and the team’s PGs.
June 21st, 2010 at 3:17 pm
rj
June 21st, 2010 at 1:49 pm
RE: Blair
Blair has a number of very basic qualities and skills at age 21 that makes me very high on his future prospects:
(1) HE HAS TREMENDOUS DRIVE & DETERMINATION. How else do you explain a guy that had TWO twenty/twenty games at 6’6″, age 20 during a rookie season in which he only averaged 18 mpg.? NOBODY in the history of the game has ever done that.
(2) AT AGE 20, HE HAS TREMENDOUS NATURAL INSTINCTS FOR THE GAME. How else do you explain the “50/50 ball” nemesis he was to Dallas in the playoffs, or his knack getting a key steal, or finishing around the rim?
(3) HE HAS AWESOME HANDS. Did you ever notice how this young “tank” of ours has the softest hands you’ve probably ever seen? He simply does not drop passes, and puts the ball up on the rim/board with outstanding touch for a guy that stands 6’6″, 275 pds.
(4) HE HAS AN AMAZINGLY POSITIVE ATTITUDE, AND A WILL TO IMPROVE AS A PLAYER, AS WELL AS A “NEED” TO “WIN”. You can tell by watching him play that he just loves to play the game. I’m sure you’ve caught his Grizzly Bear smile on numerous occasions. But I’ve also seen his competitiveness and anger about his own mistakes, which suggests to me that he has very high expectations for himself.
(5) HE IS VERY COACHABLE. And when you have a guy like Pop & Co. doing the coaching, don’t take this quality for granted. Blair is very attentive to what the coaches are trying to accomplish, and is a very fast learner. The hardest thing for him to learn has been to avoid unnecessary fouling, but this was bound to be one of his toughest assignments, given his height disability. With his great hands though, he will learn to strip like Boozer, and become a more than adequate defender in due time.
All of these qualities will help him greatly improve his all-around game. For example, I won’t be surprised in the least that he becomes a very solid mid-range shooter. He may even be able to develop a fade away jumper, which with his extraordinary ability to offensive rebound & score inside, would put him over the top. Plus, he has the attitude and determination to make it happen. In fact, he’s probably got a plan in the works right now to take 10,000+ mid-range jumpers during the summer. And Pop of course could help this season by showing a bit more confidence in him. Give him more minutes, and let him play through his mistakes more, while still giving him counseling. Believe me, we’ll be rewarded in spades.
On Parker/Hill:
First of all, they’re very different players in some important respects. Parker is great at penetrating and finishing at the rim in the half court. Hill has a great 3-point shot, and is a great finisher in transition. Hill is also a bit better defensively at the same stage of their respective careers. Parker has of course been a star on championship teams. Hill has yet to have that opportunity. It’s still too early to tell whether Hill can obtain a similar level of success as that of Parker, but obviously the bar is set pretty high.
As far as trading Hill over Parker, there’s three principal problems with that: (1) Hill is still worth more to us than he is to other teams, and as such, we will not get us back enough in a deal for him; (2) Parker has more stature, and as a result, he could potentially get us something back that could make his loss worth it; (3) Hill is much younger, and has potentially a much longer future with the franchise. Plus, we simply don’t know quite yet where his upside will end.
June 21st, 2010 at 3:23 pm
Hobson13
June 21st, 2010 at 2:34 pm
“If GS was really serious about becoming a Playoff team, they would unload Don Nelson, the worst coach in the league, and clean out their entire FO. I promise you that if Pop had all that young talent, they would be an unreal team in just a couple of years.”
I agree wholeheartedly.
June 21st, 2010 at 4:34 pm
td4life
June 21st, 2010 at 1:32 am
“….some stats for anyone who’s interested:
Player MPG…EFF48M…PER…AFG%…(misc)…..”
Draft Express has these stats for Splitter: ACB, 2009/10:
MPG eff40 PER TS% eFG% BPG
28 27 26.7 .65 .63 .8
June 21st, 2010 at 4:38 pm
Maybe that will read better!
MPG….. eff40….. PER….. TS%….. eFG%….. BPG
28………… 27…….. 26.7….. 0.65…… 0.63…….. 0.8
June 21st, 2010 at 5:23 pm
The views of the effects of the Warriors pending sale expressed by Henderson, Hobson13 are accurate assessments. The question is does the Spurs FO like this deal, or are they in love with a player in the draft that they don’t want to part with, or do they think that even with such a trade+Splitter we are not competitive with the lakers…
Again, with Maggette in ’03 S-Jax role, as I indicated earlier in this thread I think it’s perfectly reasonable for Splitter, even at 75% of his MVP production, to be equivalent to, or better than, Nene and Okafor… and I don’t think he would be any worse than B Lopez and M Gasol, even in his first year… giving us a better 10-man rotation than we’ve had in a long while.
June 21st, 2010 at 9:13 pm
Not sure if anyone else has seen this on mysa but they have this dream scenarios for all the NBA teams. They had this for the Spurs:
“BEST DRAFT PICK: Gordon Hayward
I have the Spurs trading up into the top 10 to grab the Butler star. There’s a feeling that Hayward might be a project for a veteran team that can work with him on his shot. The Spurs are the perfect fit.
BEST POSSIBLE SIGNING: Jermaine O’Neal, Kyle Korver
I’m reaching a bit here, I’m well aware. But if Richard Jefferson opts out of his contract, the Spurs are going to have some gift money to play with. O’Neal would be a great low-post partner for Duncan while Korver gives them the outside threat they need.
BEST TRADES: The draft trade with Utah to get them to No. 9.
DREAM STARTING FIVE: George Hill (PG), Manu Ginobili (SG), Korver (SF), Duncan (PF), O’Neal (C)”
Now I’m not really sure how all this would work even, but would O’Neal really be a dream starting C? haha
June 21st, 2010 at 9:39 pm
From Spurs team report:
“It appears the Spurs will add 6-foot-11 Tiago Splitter to the roster next season. The team’s first-round pick in 2007 led Caja Laboral to the ACB (Spanish League) championship. During the ceremony to celebrate the championship, the team’s president said it is his understanding that it is Splitter’s “intent and desire” to play in the NBA next season. Splitter, 25, was voted the league’s MVP.”
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/sas/report#notes_quotes
June 21st, 2010 at 9:55 pm
Jim Henderson
June 21st, 2010 at 9:39 pm
“It appears the Spurs will add 6-foot-11 Tiago Splitter to the roster next season.”
Wow. I don’t want to start counting chickens too soon, but that’s the first thing that needed to happen this summer. I sure hope we make the RJ trade to GS. That would really revamp our roster. The next few days before the draft might be interesting. It is rumored that the Spurs are looking to move up in the draft to get a big man. I wonder if the FO is still looking to move up now that Tiago is seemingly a lock. I still expect at least one big trade from the Spurs this summer. With a Tiago signing, I think it may ensure we keep Parker, unless we just get a sick trade offer (which may not be out of the question).
June 21st, 2010 at 10:04 pm
So many mock drafts have us grabbing a big. It’s like these guys live in a vacuum where all that matters it he roster at the end of last season.
I have watched a heap of Splitter Video on the tube etc this last week and he is a hell of a potential big, I’d rather have him than any other C in the draft right now.
June 21st, 2010 at 10:55 pm
Splitter to Spurs = Very very great news.
A commitment before the draft is the icing on the proverbial cake. Now los Spurs can draft accordingly. So happy, so happy, so happy, so happy, so happy.
June 21st, 2010 at 10:57 pm
“I’d rather have him than any other C in the draft right now.”
In terms of immediate impact, he’s definitely the best fit. And Favors and Cousins were pipe dreams anyway. So, yeah, Tiago hands down, with a sigh of relief! I get that he’s not the second coming of TD, but at this point he’s better than that MySA nonsensical favorite of Jermaine O’Neal.
On the Brazilian National Team, he’s their best player, ahead of Varejao and Nene.
We could still use another big, but I sure as hell hope we don’t give up Parker or Hill for Murphy, unless we make some other incredible moves and unless RC and Pop are TOTALLY sold on Orton, Davis, Henry, George or whoever. I’m half expecting TP to have his best season overall next year, by showing improved shooting ability. And I am sure we are all excited to see Hill take another step forward. The GS trade scenario is hard to better, especially at this point.
June 21st, 2010 at 11:54 pm
@Henderson & Hobson
Oops.
That Yahoo!Sports Splitter report is not news, it’s the same source quoted in this very 48MOH blog. I guess we got ahead of ourselves. I hope RC gets a decision from him before the draft Thursday night even if they don’t announce it until later in the summer.
June 22nd, 2010 at 12:12 am
it sounds like splitter is practically in the fold, so let’s operate on that assumption. i say we sit on the trades until the draft or afterwards.
with splitter coming over, drafting a big man is a luxury, and should probably be reserved for the 2nd round or undrafted pickup (i’m hoping pittman comes to camp for us). there are mobile shot blockers and project bigs galore in this draft. i maintain my damion james (yeah, i pine for bowen, but james has bowen’s motor and work ethic. imagine if bowen had this kid’s athleticism!) and a mobile, p&r defending, shot blocking big with limited offense in the 2nd advocacy.
a happy note (from June 28 issue of ESPN The Magazine, on who the draft prospects’ dream team to be picked by is):
“Sure, many rooks (11.7%) want the Lakers to hand them a jersey. But the team most named was the Spurs, with 16.7% of the vote. Respondents point to tradition, Gregg Popovich (one of five coaches in NBA history with four league titles) and playing with 12-time All-Star Tim Duncan. ‘I want to go somewhere I can learn,’ says one great college big man.”
oh, how good that feels.
June 22nd, 2010 at 2:03 am
[...] Splitter als Spurs, finalment? Els del Regal Barça deuen estar donant bots d’alegria en llegir això. Splitter té una clausula “a la Rubio” enguany per marxar a fer de crossa de Tim Duncan. [...]
June 22nd, 2010 at 5:13 am
It’s interesting how being swept by the Suns has not played into the decision making philosophy of the dedicated contributors to this great website. It’s all about the Lakers. I personally think we would have beaten the Lakers this year much like we beat the Mavericks. We were prepared for the Lakers and the Mavericks, but the Suns? The Suns were the monkey in the wrench!?!? I hope we get Tiago.
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