Tuesday, July 20th, 2010...2:48 pm
Richard Jefferson and San Antonio Spurs: It was just a break
Most of the time, when there’s a sequel, it sucks. It’s usually a half-assed attempt to capitalize on a previous edition for cheap.
In hopefully-unrelated news, Richard Jefferson will re-sign the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.
After a rough first season in the silver and black, in which flashes of what Spurs fans expected when the team acquired Jefferson were few and far between, Jefferson surprisingly opted out of the final year of his contract. That final year would’ve paid Jefferson $15 million.
Defending his move, Jefferson said publicly that he was looking for long-term security as opposed to a quick payday.
Many frustrated Spurs fans were initially excited at the prospect of ridding themselves of Jefferson. But hours after the news of the swingman opting out, reports were already surfacing of Jefferson’s return to the Spurs, albeit at a more cap-friendly (and some would say, more deserving) price.
And though it took longer than people were expecting, RJ is indeed returning to the silver and black. Terms of the deal haven’t been disclosed, but should be released later this week. Either way, it shouldn’t be anywhere in the neighborhood of the salary that was left on the table.
This should comes as a relief to San Antonio Spurs owner Peter Holt who won’t have to pay the difference in salary or the luxury tax payments that would go along with Jefferson’s abandoned $15 million, which had San Antonio far and away over the salary cap.
Defenders of Jefferson’s have been beating the drum that players are more comfortable in their second season in Gregg Popovich’s system. And of all the things Jefferson was this past season, comfortable was not one of them. Luckily for Spurs fans, Jefferson has reportedly spend the summer in San Antonio working with Coach Pop on the finer points of the system, adapting his game to fit the team’s.
In the end, after the Spurs were able to at long last bring Tiago Splitter over from Spain, and after re-signing the sandwich hunter, there were few free agent small forwards left on the market that the Spurs could afford. And with the Spurs holding Jefferson’s bird rights, it was tough to find a better option for the Spurs than RJ.
Former Ticket 760 radio host Peter Burns might have summed it up best on Tuesday afternoon when he tweeted that, in effect, the San Antonio Spurs “refinanced” Jefferson.
Enjoy year two of Richard Jefferson and his shoulder tattoo.
158 Comments
July 20th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
Hahah love the shoulder tat reference!! It’s so bad. But aside from that I’m glad RJ will be back with a front office like ours and Pop, along with our veteran players, they will have everything figured out by the time the season begins. It was just too much to ask of them to sort out the RJ prob in one season. We shall see soon enough. Go Spurs!
July 20th, 2010 at 3:16 pm
The lack of options on the free market actually made me stomach the idea of a 2nd Jeffeson season a little bit easier…
July 20th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
wheww..the Spurs had been striking out on free agents to fill the 3 spot. This is really great news. I expect RJ to at least find an identity this season. I think the weight of the expectations that his contract brought really affected him. I expect him to play more relaxed now that he’s not the new ticket in town. at the end of the day, this dude is still a physical beast. with G Hill and Blair another year better, the Tiago and Anderson additions and a healthy Big 3, we’re as ready for a run as we’re gonna be.
July 20th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
Good news. Like this article says ( http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/Jefferson_will_re-sign_Tuesday_with_Spurs_98860444.html ) his average of 12.3 points per game represented the best offensive season for a Spurs small forward since Sean Elliott. WE just hated him because he was new and it was easy.
July 20th, 2010 at 3:58 pm
Jeferson was a sleeper last year but this year will be his best as a spur, I like the way jefferson plays he is still a better than average small forward. Go spurs GO
July 20th, 2010 at 4:02 pm
Bigtee34, we hated him because we was vastly overpaid.
July 20th, 2010 at 4:02 pm
Comment virgin here, for this discussion board. Just want to add that this resigning is critical and crucial. if it wasnt, then why would the organization have followed through? glad to see RJ back in black (and silver/white). this year… i can almost taste it again. our cast is looking great; championship veteran core, young and worldly talented youngsters, great system and coach. let’s get out there and support this team all the way through again. can’t hardly wait for the season to begin… forget the cowboys
July 20th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
6 years 30 million please, haha
July 20th, 2010 at 4:07 pm
i’m totally bullish on RJ going forward. cheaper, got a year under the belt, had flashes of his potential in our system last year, here for the forseeable future. and, as has been mentioned numerous times before, he represented the best available option for the spurs at SF.
he had some great games for us in the playoffs and i’m hoping it’s a sign of things to come.
July 20th, 2010 at 4:07 pm
lookin’ forward to seeing what the contract actually is.
July 20th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
Go Spurs Go!!
July 20th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
All I want from RJ is more intensity and focus. Last year he looked lost at times that is to be expected of a player in a new system though. We do not need him to be dominant 48 minutes a game , we do however need him to be consistent . I am looking for around 15 ppg with minimal turnovers and some contribution in rebounding. He is far from done from a physical stand point and a long term deal at around 5 to 6 million a year could turn out to be a steal if he can gel in this system….. that is a big if tho only this season will tell.
Timmy for President !
July 20th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
I think you should all be prepared for a deal in the 6-8 million range, 5 mill is just too much to ask.
July 20th, 2010 at 5:08 pm
RJ’s scoring improved twords the end of the season, although still a little incosistent his defence was very good for the most part. He was not accustomed to a half court game, he will do much better this year more options around him second year w/spurs etc… Plus I think he showed a true commitment to the spurs organization by renegotiating his contract. I tink we are in great shape to compete.
July 20th, 2010 at 5:10 pm
sorry (think) not tink
July 20th, 2010 at 5:14 pm
The front office has quietly worked miracles this summer.
July 20th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
LOL
All the spurs fans agree if it means less money to RJ
July 20th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
I predict a contract at $7 million per for 5 Years with the last year being a “reward” partial guarantee.
Now who do the Spurs go after to shore up that outside shooting? Rasual Butler? Take a low risk chance on Adam Morrison?
July 20th, 2010 at 5:27 pm
I agree, my guess is 4 years for 28 million, and perhaps a player option in year four.
I will say this, RJ is still a very good player. He had an off year last year, obviously, but I expect him to have a considerably better all-around year this year. My main concern is not necessarily him scoring much more (14-15 ppg. would be plenty). I just want to see him play smarter, and with more consistent aggression on both ends. If he does that, we should see his rebounding, defense, & 3-point efficiency improve. And to me, that’s the most important thing I’d like to see out of RJ this coming season. And I think he can do it.
July 20th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
I dont care if RJ doesnt score much
I just want that RJ learn great defense, make the open shots and play with energy. With that im happy
July 20th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
Awesome, we get to hear him howl “AND ONE!” every time he’s anywhere near the paint. That got really annoying…..Ever wonder if someone like Manu or Dice just wanted to reach over and slap him….
July 20th, 2010 at 5:57 pm
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Andrew A. McNeill and San Antonio Spurs, Jordan. Jordan said: Richard Jefferson and San Antonio Spurs: “It was just a break” http://bit.ly/d1NPZJ [...]
July 20th, 2010 at 6:57 pm
I was an RJ fan when he was in New Jersey. All he really needs to do though, is average between 12, and 17 ppg, 6 to 9 rpg, and play great defense, and he’ll be ok. however, if he goes back to playing average to below average defense, and averaging 10 ppg or less, then we need to deal him by the trade deadline. We need to let Gee develope. This is off topic, but does anyone think Neal will make the roster? It would cover the shooter need
July 20th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Justin Goldstein, Justin Goldstein. Justin Goldstein said: Richard Jefferson is re-signing with the Spurs. Lets hope year 2 is an improvement from year 2. http://tinyurl.com/2almqt4 #gospursgo# [...]
July 20th, 2010 at 7:09 pm
SG20
July 20th, 2010 at 6:57 pm
“This is off topic, but does anyone think Neal will make the roster? It would cover the shooter need.”
We could use a guy that’s done it before at the NBA level in the playoffs if we want our best chance to compete with the elite teams during Duncan’s window.
July 20th, 2010 at 7:31 pm
@ Jim Henderson - your reply regarding the Jefferson resigning most approaches what the Spurs need from him, but I add this: how about comprising a squad that can press to create turnovers that lead to fast breaks ( a long lost Spurs staple) to take advantage of Jefferson’s finishing ability? This is possible with Hill, Ginobili, Temple, etc. We need to shake up our defensive philosophy-become agressive against opponents as they bring up the ball to front court.
July 20th, 2010 at 7:35 pm
This is great news. I know all of us, including myself, were disappointed in what RJ brought to the table last year. We had hoped he would be a much more consistent 4th option. I think they will sign Jefferson to something similar to a 5 year $33mil contract. He wanted some long term security with a new CBA coming in a year or so.
bigtee34
July 20th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
“his average of 12.3 points per game represented the best offensive season for a Spurs small forward since Sean Elliott.”
Jefferson had some great playoff games where he produced 18/10 and 19/7. Then he also had playoff games where he produced 4/1 and 5/3. He’s shown us what he can do. He just needs to put great effort (and get the ball more frequently) on a more consistent basis.
Keep in mind that Jefferson had a HORRIBLE year by his standards and was still leaps ahead of Michael Finley and many other SF’s we’ve had in the recent past. During the last part of the season, Jefferson showed he was actually a very good rebounder for the SF position. With all this in mind, I think Jefferson will improve on defense and average somewhere in the neighborhood of 15ppg and 8rebs.
Jefferson’s improvement, Parker’s health and subsequent return to all star form, Tiago Splitter on board, and the continued growth of Blair and Hill will make the Spurs a much more formidable team this next year.
So far, this has been a profitable offseason. I’d like to get the figures on where we stand on the salary cap, but I know we cut down significant salary by resigning RJ for a much cheaper deal, letting Mason go, and the fact that Duncan makes a bit less this next year. Now if we could just land a guy like Amundson and maybe one cheap shooter…
July 20th, 2010 at 7:40 pm
Its impossible that RJ average
17 ppg, 9 rpg
in the San Antonio Spurs. Maybe in the phoenix suns
I know that RJ is going to average the same 12 Points and 4-5 Rebs and its Ok, he is the 4 option or another option, i just want that he make the open shots and play hard defense
July 20th, 2010 at 7:49 pm
We hated him because he was overpayed. Funny I dont remember signing any of his checks.
July 20th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
As a complimentary piece he is solid. he just isn’t a star. Hill has emerged as The 4th man instead. Go Spurs!
July 20th, 2010 at 8:02 pm
Enough already! Who cares about RJ and Bonner anyway? I can think of about 29 teams that don’t. Blue Steel? Ferrari? Le Tigra? They’re the same face! The Spurs were the worst playoff team in the West versus winning teams. Yet here we are celebrating non-moves. Doesn’t anybody notice this? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!
July 20th, 2010 at 8:21 pm
for once, i almost completely agree with jim (not that we’ve been that far apart on the issues).
i’d love to see jeff back at a 4yr $24mil contract, but 4/$28 seems much more likely. i can’t see us offering years beyond 4, considering his game is so predicated on his athleticism.
that said, i hope pop helps him figure it out this summer so we can bump it up to 3 “additions”. some consistent lockdown defense and efficient shooting would do nicely.
July 20th, 2010 at 8:32 pm
the spurs had the worst record in the west against winning teams, still beat dallas, advanced to the second round. got beat by a crazy hot phoenix team but had the lead or was tied until the last 9 minutes of each game. just need a little…push…in the playoffs. even when they won in the playoffs, it was never easy…except against lebron…
July 20th, 2010 at 8:34 pm
ChillFAN
July 20th, 2010 at 8:02 pm
“Doesn’t anybody notice this? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!”
stop taking crazy pills and live up to your moniker.
these aren’t “non-moves”. retaining your talent at a cheaper rate, along with stabling the best player not in the NBA can’t be called “non-moves”.
we weren’t the worst team in the western playoffs versus winning teams. that doesn’t even make sense, considering we won a playoff series.
July 20th, 2010 at 8:37 pm
Stats prediction 10-11,
RJ: 14ppg, 5 reb, 2.5 asst.
TD: 17.5 ppg, 9 reb, 2.5 asst.
McDyess: 6 ppg, 5 reb, 0.5 asst.
TP: 18.5 ppg, 2.5 reb, 6.5 asst.
Manu: 15.5 ppg, 3.5 reb, 4 asst.
GHill: 13.5 ppg, 2.5 reb, 3 asst
Splitter: 10 ppg, 6.5 reb, 1.5 asst
Blair: 8.5 ppg, 7.5 reb, 1 asst
Anderson: 7 ppg, 2 reb, 1.5 asst
Bonner: 5.5 ppg, 3 reb, 1 asst
July 20th, 2010 at 8:53 pm
Just show him tapes of Sean Elliott back in the day !!!! .. That should get him going !
July 20th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
ChillFan,
Don’t forget we get back a healthy Tony Parker too. He was never himself last year.
So, we’re essentially adding an All-Star level point guard, the best center in Europe, the best shooter in the draft, and got RJ to renegotiate so we’re under the luxury tax.
That’s a great off-season right there, and we still have a little wiggle room to shore things up.
July 20th, 2010 at 8:55 pm
ChillFan
“Enough already! Who cares about RJ and Bonner anyway?”
I do.
July 20th, 2010 at 9:37 pm
Biggest news is the savings to the Spurs organization. Depending on what he signs for, as long as we stay under the cap, we’re looking at 9-12 mil savings this year with the saved salary and incoming revenue sharing. Thats just huge for the small market Spurs. Good to know that cash will still be in Holt’s pocket when Tony comes calling for his extension later this year.
Also because of the savings, I dont mind the Spurs giving the guy a little extra on the back end. Maybe another partially guaranteed year. 4 yrs/ 32 mil - 4th yr partial.
It’ll be real interesting to see if this wait was because of RC/RJ negotiating, or if a number was agreed to all along. They might have been waiting to get a better sense of the Spurs payroll going into next season, to see if they could front load the contract and still be under the cap.
I hope it was the plan all along. Thats a great story - RJ taking less to help the team and get a decent deal on a few extra years. I like that one better then RJ opting out, looking for a major pay day and getting screwed.
July 20th, 2010 at 9:45 pm
I believe that RJ will play better this year. He can’t play any worse. I agree with Jim, RJ is still a very good player, he had a lot to deal with last year on top of his contract. I believ this year He will be better!
July 20th, 2010 at 9:56 pm
mikrobass3, (sarcastically) thanks for reminding me that “the Spurs had the lead or was tied until the last 9 minutes of each game.” Only 36 minutes away from sweeping Phoenix!
andy, funny post,you are right, I should chill and enjoy the Dallas series. To clarify: Of the teams that made the playoffs in the West, the Spurs had the worst regular season record v. winning teams. This matters because without a solid seed this team is not going deep into the playoffs.
Rick Ashford, I agree, Splitter will help our defense. But pretending a healthy Tony Parker is somehow a difference maker is the definition of a non-move. Ask the Rockets and the Hornets.
Forgive me for pointing out the reality that no other team wanted these guys. Is T.O. still available? Go for it, R.C.
icewater, I’m horrible with math, but that’s 116 pts. I don’t see Splitter scoring that much.
July 20th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
I’m with Chillfan, Jim Henderson, & others on the Spurs.
Spurs have a “get home court advantage in 1st round type of team” (top 4 in the west). A 10 deep team, but seem to be lacking the sort of playoff role players needed to win a championship.
Where are the clutch 3 pt shooters? Only Ginobili is proven. Hill shows promise. Bonner? Jefferson? Anderson? Parker? How will that work in the playoffs? The last Spurs championship squad had 5, count ‘em 5 clutch, proven 3 pt shooters! Horry, Barry, Finley, Ginobili, and Bowen.
Where is the shut down wing defender? Bruce Bowen put the clamps on Stojakovic, Nash, made Anthony, Kobe, and Lebron earn their pts. The last 2 champs had an Artest or Posey(rings w/ Celtics and Heat) type defender that could make a clutch 3 pt shot. Who is that for the Spurs?
Where are the deterrents at the rim? Duncan occasionally. Lakers-Bynum,Gasol Magic-Howard, Nuggets-Birdman, Martin, Trailblazers-Oden, Pryzbilla Celtics-Perkins, Garnett. Hopefully, Splitter can help?
Where are the clutch FT shooters? We only have 1 proven, reliable FT shooter in Ginobili. Only one? Unreal.
Spurs according to Hoopshype salaries( http://hoopshype.com/salaries/san_antonio.htm) have only about $64 million, counting Jefferson @ $7 mil. $6 million under the $70 million tax threshold.
Imagine if the Spurs had traded Roger Mason, Michael Finley, and Ian Mahinmi whose salaries equaled Stephen Jackson’s salary last yr of $7.5 million. With Stephen Jackson added to the current roster, the Spurs would be @ the salary cap tax threshold, and an NBA championship caliber team. (Missed opportunity)
July 20th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Haha you know icewater, with your stat predictions you have a collective 116 ppg for the team. I’m a fan, but… well maybe you’re bad at math.
July 20th, 2010 at 10:42 pm
Spurs who will help Ginobli spread the floor for 3 Pt?? Are really looking for someone who can help shoot 3? Did we seriouly pursue Raja Bell? I do not see Richard Jefferson improving. Bottom line we need a Player how can shoot 3 period. Eddie House now is in the Market, why not follow him?
With RJ without 3 pointer to help Ginobli spread floor WE ARE THE LOOSER NO ?
July 20th, 2010 at 11:29 pm
ChillFan
I’m right there with you buddy. Except the Splitter signing is definitely an upgrade for us.
I take small comfort in the thought that maybe Blair will force Bonner to a Danny Ferry role at SF, which would be slightly less insulting than having to suffer through another season of “stretch 4″ garbage. And maybe Anderson, Temple, and others suprise us all… we will be better than last year, but without a big summer this year, the window is getting smaller and smaller.
andy
Last year the Spurs had the worst record during the regular season against other Western Conference playoff teams, winning only one season series (against the 8th seed, OKC). We beat a Dallas team that hadn’t gelled after a mid-season overhaul, whose coach who didn’t trust their young french guard. Still a nice victory, until we got exposed as a true 7th seed, when we got swept by a weaker Suns team than the ones we used to send fishing time and again.
July 20th, 2010 at 11:53 pm
Tiago Splitter signing and draft picks are positive roster moves we made this summer.
Everything else is pretty weak. Richard Jefferson may the best we could do, but he needs more than familiarity with Pop’s schemes to be a difference-maker, he needs to be a different player. Does he REALLY hate to lose? Does he REALLY want to win it all? Will he really compete on defense and assert himself on offense every night?
July 21st, 2010 at 12:06 am
Anyone who criticize a player production based on his salary has issues.
Jefferson had been, throughout his career and thanks to the fact that he played with Kidd, an open court player.
Last year we asked him to produce in half court sets and drain spot-up 3s: not surprisingly he had a below average season.
I bet that, just like we always do, by resigning him we found a way to get a good, productive player on the cheap.
Finally, he won’t be the 4th option, as that will be Hill.
What’s left to see now is how the starting 5 will shape up during the regular season and the playoff: if Jefferson still needs Manu to be effective, that results in either a new starter at the small forward spot, or Hill as the first perimeter player off the bench.
And yes, who is our sniper?
To all those who are excited about next season I would like to remind that, in clutch situations, we still rely on Manu to be our:
- primary ballhandler
- primary playmaker
- primary scorer
- primary 3 point shooter
- primary free throw shooter
- primary change of pace guy
July 21st, 2010 at 12:57 am
Yeah Timmy for President. DaveMan likes RJ back he has good attitude. DaveMan would like to see RJ defend better and grab boards. Games when RJ grabbed a lot of boards spurs won. Slash more and stand on the perimeter less. Don’t worry about what scoring option he is just be ready to score when called upon. Last year there would be long streches when Rj did’nt shoot because well we had plenty of scoring. Once again scoring was not a problem for us last year. But back to what I was saying when he did get a shot opertunity he looked out of rythem especially on open jumpers. Look when the Spurs win championships the defense is in the top 3. If the Spurs defense is in the top 3 at the end of the regular season I would put them as the fovorite to win the championship come playoffs and I don’t care who they have to play to get it.And let me say it one more time Timmy for Pres.
July 21st, 2010 at 3:23 am
Here we SA, Go Spurs Go!!
July 21st, 2010 at 4:42 am
Welcome back RJ! You had me worried for awhile.
July 21st, 2010 at 5:08 am
Just out of curiousity, why do the Spurs hold RJ’s Bird rights but the Orlando Magic did not hold Matt Barnes Bird rights? Yes I know, unrelated but I just want to get a grasp on the contract stuff.
July 21st, 2010 at 5:41 am
For some reason I imagine a lot more pick-n-rolls or high screens specifically for RJ to attack the rim. I loved the few plays last year where he just said “f it” and would drive hard to the rim; there were a couple spectacular dunks and attempts. RJ should be more consistent this year on the defensive end because it is a well known fact the defensive scheme of the Spurs is harder to learn than their offensive sets. I was not on the ” RJ a bust ” bandwagon because clearly the man had to adjust to a new team and city. Not so easy to go from Jersey to SA. Year two, and there are no excuses, RJ will produce.
July 21st, 2010 at 5:50 am
@ChillFan and Will - add up everyone’s PPG last year and it comes to 128.7, much more than Icewater’s 116. Perhaps you should do a little math yourself before ridiculing others.
@Lvmainman - your salary numbers are wrong. Tim, Tony, Manu are 44.3m. RJ @ 7m plus McDyess, Splitter and Bonner put us at 63m. Anderson at 1.3m plus 5 ‘youngsters’ at 0.8m each gets us to 68m+. It’s simply not possible to add Stephen Jackson’s 8m+ to the current roster and stay under the cap. Assuming Jack was even available for RMJ/Fin/Ian, which is pure speculation on your part.
July 21st, 2010 at 5:52 am
@ Casey
Good question. Straight from wikipedia: “To qualify as a Bird free agent, a player must have played three seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. This means a player can obtain “Bird rights” by playing under three one-year contracts, a single contract of at least three years, or any combination thereof.”
Barnes hasn’t played with Orlando for 3 consecutive seasons (signed as a FA last summer), so he wouldn’t have any Bird rights.
July 21st, 2010 at 5:57 am
@Casey, Bird rights generally travel with you when you are traded, as RJ was. Barnes signed with Orland last summer as a free agent, so he’d need to play there two more years before they had full Bird rights.
July 21st, 2010 at 5:57 am
@Casey @Tyler
Also, when a player is traded, the team he is traded to inherits their Bird rights. So when the Bucks traded Jefferson to San Antonio, the Spurs took over his Bird rights from Milwaukee, even though he’s only spent one season in SA.
July 21st, 2010 at 6:11 am
@ El Ganzo
I agree that we should probably run a little more offense through RJ, especially early in the game, just to get him involved. He always seemed to play well when he hit his first shot.
However, RJ’s not very good in the pick and roll as the ballhandler. Decision making with the ball in his hands isn’t one of his strengths, as opposed to Manu or TP in that situation.
If I were to guess, I think we’ll a lot of curled downscreens which should allow RJ to get the ball moving toward the basket. RJ needs to be active and constantly moving, as opposed to floating around on the perimeter. He needs to receive the ball in scoring position, where all he has to do is go up and finish - no thinking, just finish. That’s his greatest strength. Simplify the game for him. Last year, he was thinking too much, and even when he did make the right play, he was hesitant.
An underrated aspect of the RJ resigning is that the coaching staff (and teamates for that matter)should be much more familiar with RJ and knowing when, where and how to get him the ball. I expect RJ to be utilized much more effectively.
July 21st, 2010 at 6:55 am
welcome back, koopa
i like the idea of taking a low risk in acquiring adam morrison. the guy shot lights out in college and would be in a position to restablish himself as a legit NBA player on a team in which he has less expectations and responsibilities. i recall im lighting bruce bowen up for 27 back in 07′.
if adam morrison can crack the rotation as a low cost shooter, than would certanily be another triump for our FO
no if he would only shave that onri moustache…
July 21st, 2010 at 7:00 am
Not too thrilled with this signing. Jefferson’s play has really slipped the last 2 years. Hop they’re not paying him more than mid-level dollars…
July 21st, 2010 at 7:33 am
If manu Timmy and Tony can get there 18ppg and 15 ppg repectively, Hill is gonna come in and add about 13 ppg All we need is 12-14 ppg from RJ. Which he can easily do. I am excited about this. Especially with 1 full season and another off season under Pop.
July 21st, 2010 at 8:12 am
RJ is a better rebounder than people give him credit for, and he will learn where to pick his spots offensively. My major complaint with him was on defense - too many times he was out of position, or caught flat footed. This is correctable, though (i.e. - working with Pop this summer is GREAT news)! Physically, he has all the tools to be the player the Spurs need. Mentally, jury’s still out there. I predict RJ the Sequel will be a better experience than the 1st. Spurs have quietly had an excellent offseason. If healthy, we are the only team with a realistic shot of beating the Lakers.
July 21st, 2010 at 8:57 am
Dr. Who thinks DaveMan needs to stop talking about himself in 3rd person…
In other news, I think some people get it and others don’t get it. Pop’s system is a bit complicated, but it’s not something that takes a year to grasp. Temple’s IQ must be off the charts. Seems harder to step in at a PG role in such a complicated system. He seemed right at home in the Spurs string theory meets quantum mechanics system. RJ’s biggest problem was that he was a player that wrecked havok on the break getting to ball handed to him by Kidd. He thrived in the open court… asking him to be a spot up jump shooter and hit a corner 3 was not a good fit at all. What really messed the Spurs up was RJ hitting his best 3pt % of his career prior to joining the Spurs. Thoughts of Sean running the floor, finishing, spotting up for a corner 3 and playing suffocating D must have swirled around Pop’s head. They sure did mine when we signed RJ. He’s not that player though. He can finish and run the floor, which we didn’t do much of last year.
Also his heart is very much a large question on the floor. Was Bowen the most gifted athlete to wear the silver and black… not even close. I’d reserve that for #5-0. Can’t think of another 7′ center that could walk in a handstand across the floor (Dave was a feak of nature) but I digress. Defense is an attitude and as much about heart as it is about technique. No one would ever question Bruce, Timmy or Manu’s heart; RJ is not in that category. Bruce would rip your heart out and show it to you while ninja kicking you in the face. RJ doesn’t even have a small portion of that defensive nastiness in his veins. He is talented and athletic no doubt; heart of a champion… not really. There were a lot of blank stares and almost whining expressions when he’d miss a rotation (which he did very often). He’s got to grow a sack for one and he’s got to be able to play his game without pressing. Maybe that inflated contract off his back will help him relax some and just play. But where will the fire come from? Blair seems to have a nastiness about him (and talent for ripping arms off), Hill has a bit of that intensity but RJ??? He’s about as scary and imposing on the defensive end as his tattoo; not really much to be afraid of on the court. Maybe something rubs off from the others this summer? Doubtful… but he can still contribute. I wouldn’t expect a metamorphasis as far as RJ goes. I think he’ll score a bit more and continue to pick up good amounts of boards for a SF, we saw signs of that last year, but defensively he’ll be more or less the same and he won’t be draining the corner 3. By stepping in 5 feet from the corner 3 spot that will clog the lane. We saw it in the playoffs last year. It’s up to Pop and Co. to figure out a way around that. Maybe Pop designs some of the system to allow RJ free range where he can finish and not have to think, spot up shoot or handle the ball (P&R situtaions). That will surely help his game offensively. But if we still force him into a corner 3 spot up shooter, expect more of the same from RJ. If we make him a pick and pop guy that won’t help either. It’s a good move to get rid of the bad contract, he’s better than any other SF we could have signed with the remaining MLE or LLE. But I wouldn’t expect to see a huge change in his game. I do wish Bowen could come in and teach a defensive bootcamp for a month at Fort Hood. It wouldn’t hurt.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:22 am
Dr. Who,
“Temple’s IQ must be off the charts. Seems harder to step in at a PG role in such a complicated system.”
I’m think Temple has potential, but let’s not jump the gun here. As a point guard he wasn’t great, luckily he played with Manu. In 15 minutes he average .9 assists and .8 TOs. Not good. Not exactly fitting in immediately type numbers. Really, the only thing he did well for us is shoot the 3.
“But I wouldn’t expect to see a huge change in his game.”
You’re probably right, but I read something interesting in Dave Berri’s book “Stumbling on Wins”. In it he says that about 66% of NBA coaches have no effect on WP48. Meaning, players tend to play with the same WP48 they joined the team with. His point being that in general coaching doesn’t have much of an effect on player productivity. Of course, that means that 33% have at least a little effect. The top two are Phil Jackson and our very own Pop. So we can always hope that Pop spending the summer working out RJ has a noticeable positive effect.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:50 am
Here’s a thought, let’s see what the team looks like after they actually play a little bit next year before we shoot everything down and complain about what did and didn’t happen!
July 21st, 2010 at 9:58 am
I am glad to have him back.
A starting 5 something like this:
Duncan
Splitter
Jefferson
Ginobli
Parker
And a bench of:
McDyess/Bonner
Blair
Hairston/Gee
Temple/Anderson
Hill
I think our starting 5 is as good as any starting 5 in the league. Hopefully we can keep Timmy and Manu’s minutes down during the regular season. I expect to see alot more Bonner in the regular season, only to be replaced by McDyess in the playoffs.
As far as Jefferson is concerned; I am happy with his production from last season. I believe, that as the 4th option, he did a good job. What i really hope to gain is him having 12-13 points - EVERY GAME. He is an efficient scorer when he is trying to score.
WRITE THIS PART DOWN:
Tony Parker has a career year this year. With all the money being passed around (for average players) in this market, he will be looking for a MAX contract, and rightfully so. This is a contract year for him, whether witht he SPURS or someone else - he will be BALLIN out of his mind.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:07 am
Why did you put quotes on “It was just a break”? I like this blog a lot - but the way you set it up makes it look like you are attributing that quote to Richard Jefferson. This is both inaccurate and sloppy. Don’t get trashy like other blogs and put words in people’s mouths please. I like this one more than that.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:30 am
Tony Parker……… hmmm hasn’t lost a step, still a great scorer still has his shooting touch, was beaten up all last year, still in the front end of his career. Yep I agree with DieHardSpur all the way Tony is going to be our leading scorer this year. I am thinking Tony will get somewhere between 18 and 21 ppg . With him driving to the basket defenses will collapse opening up the perimeter for R.J. and Matty B. from 3 (yes I realize that rhymed) as well as a long two from T.D. or Dice or even judging by what I have seen on youtube T-splitt. I am not worried about the Spurs being able to score the ball….I am worried about the defense. One thing in our favor is youth. We have young guys with fresh legs that should be able to stay in front of people and run the floor with the best of them but, we do not have a dominant stopper in the interior (Timmy is gettin to be like Big D at the end of his career) and no one that I feel confidant to lock the other teams leading scorer down. D wins championships I do not see us being a more dominant defensive force than the lakers so unless someone (Dallas) knocks them out in the playoffs before we have to face them …IDK.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:31 am
@Eric
Good call. It seems logical that he could’ve said that when he actually didn’t. And while that wasn’t the goal, it’s too close for comfort.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:38 am
@Eric
it wasn’t in quotes, not a quote… There was nothing about the headline that inferred a direct quote at all. Nobody put any words in anyone elses mouth (that sounds dirty) but even if they did, would it really matter at the end of the day?
This is still just a blog about basketball…. relax and have a good time.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:39 am
Eric,
my bad, the quotes must have been removed after the fact. No wonder I thought you were crazy.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:43 am
Am I wrong to automatically assume that the Lakers and only the Lakers are a serious threat out west . I mean EVERY other team in the west looks weaker than last year well all the top teams with the exception of Dallas who pretty much stayed the same, the Lakers who got even better with some depth at the point and us . I look at the East and my god its going to be hell beating whoever comes out of there in a 7 game series . You got the Miami “sick of getting beat” who in my opinion is third best out there then there is a reloaded Bulls team I would put at 4th .I remember the magic are still a force to be reckoned with and of course the team I think of as the east cost Spurs the Celtics I think either one of these two could be top in the east . I would take anyone of these four teams against any team out west with the exception of the Lakers and Spurs. Maybe i’m just crazy.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:46 am
@bduran
I think my wording was a bit off on Temple. I wasn’t claiming him to be the second coming. The main point was that he came in with little to no knowledge of the Spurs uber complicated system and didnt’ seem to miss many defensive rotations; and was able to contribute. The kid shows promise but it’ll be a while before we can say how good he’ll be. RJ was still missing rotations during the playoffs after a full season. I think there are things the Spurs can do to help RJ a bit offensively but defensively is the bigger challenge.
@Ken
(that’s right… a triple smiley!)
And what fun would that be? Are we supposed to watch baseball and not talk about our Spurs till the season starts? Seriously… baseball? Y-u-c-k! All kidding aside we can’t complain about what did or didn’t happen and if you read my post I really wasn’t. It sucks that we’re stuck with Bonner and RJ with long term contracts instead of Bosh and Lebron, but we weren’t going to get those guys.
We entered the offseason having several needs and RJ opting out. We needed, 3pt shooting, a new SF, athletic wing defender and another big. We only had the MLE, LLE and the draft to do all of this with. So we pick up a promising rook that may be a 3pt shooter, sign a Red Headed, sandwich luvin’, playoff flameout, PER monster, 3 pt shooter for a little below market value (look up the contract of other 6’11″ guys Darko and Drew Gooden come to mind) and we signed the best possible SF on the market in RJ right now to a better contract taking some of the “distaster” and “bust” label off of his signing last year. Hopefully it’s only a 4 year deal with the 4th being a team option. Signing Tiago with less than the MLE in this current market was utterly amazing. It was really the best the FO could do with what they had to address our needs. Is it “sexy” and cool. Nope, it’s resigning RJ and Bonner. But bringing Tiago over sure is nice. We missed out on Raja Bell and that hurt. On paper he was what we needed in a defender who shot over 40% 3′s. But we didn’t have a chance for Bell. He was looking for a paycheck and the Spurs didn’t have enough. Can’t fault the FO for that. Plus Bell hasn’t played since his injury, who konws how his body will hold up? Can’t fault the FO for much of anything this offseason unless you’re a delusional Shaq fan and thought he was the difference maker. We still have more time this offseason but no real big splash will be made with what little we have to offer. We still have holes and we still have RJ and Bonner, but it’s the best we could do given the situation. Dunno about you, but typing/reading this was about 100 times more fun that watching the Rangers or heaven forbid the DisAstros. Keep posting guys! We’ll keep reading.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:48 am
@Jacob
Yeah, the quotes were removed after Eric’s comment.
Perks of the blogging age, we can correct errors even after publication. Although we like to not have them to begin with.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:51 am
DieHardSpur,
But this leaves the question. Will Tony play for himself or the team? Will he trust the young guys, or especially RJ. Last year I always got the feeling that Tony did not like to play with RJ. How many times last year did you see TP completely ignore an open RJ.
July 21st, 2010 at 11:37 am
@THEREDANDBLACK
It doesnt matter at the PG position who he is playing for - you get the same results.
TP is an efficient scorer, I think we can put that argument aside.
In this day and age - to be a TOP 5 PG(to command top dollar), you have to have 20pts and 10 ast, or as close to that as you can get(Tony knows this).With that being said, Steve Nash is the only guy in the league that averaged that last year. Tony’s numbers (while not being a ‘pass first’ pointguard) are still an 18 and 7.
If Tony pushes like he did in the playoffs year before last, he will be around 22 and 8ish… That definitely helps the SPURS organization. more assists and more points from the PG position.
These are the numbers I see Tony putting up this year. If he can stay healthy he should put up 20-8.
July 21st, 2010 at 11:42 am
Tyler
July 21st, 2010 at 6:11 am
“If I were to guess, I think we’ll a lot of curled downscreens which should allow RJ to get the ball moving toward the basket. RJ needs to be active and constantly moving, as opposed to floating around on the perimeter. He needs to receive the ball in scoring position, where all he has to do is go up and finish – no thinking, just finish. That’s his greatest strength. Simplify the game for him. Last year, he was thinking too much, and even when he did make the right play, he was hesitant.”
Well put. I think that’s an accurate assessment.
Chris
July 21st, 2010 at 8:12 am
“If healthy, we are the only team with a realistic shot of beating the Lakers.”
I’d take a good hard look at the Rockets if I were you.
Firebrand
July 21st, 2010 at 10:43 am
“I mean EVERY other team in the west looks weaker than last year well all the top teams with the exception of Dallas who pretty much stayed the same, the Lakers who got even better with some depth at the point and us .”
Can you please take a closer look at Houston. As with us, if healthy, they are a very deep & talented team.
“You got the Miami “sick of getting beat” who in my opinion is third best out there then there is a reloaded Bulls team I would put at 4th .”
Where are you putting finalist Boston, and semi-finalist Orlando? And again, Houston, where are they?
Brooks, Lowery
Martin, Budinger
Ariza, Battier
Scola, Patterson
Yao, B. Miller
That’s a VERY strong team.
July 21st, 2010 at 11:55 am
It’s official. RJ is back. Sure wish they would have the contract details.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5398896
July 21st, 2010 at 12:20 pm
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/422484-the-san-antonio-spurs-dynasty-the-end-of-an-era
the writer of this article is obviously horrible at analyzing teams because he thinks the spurs roster will stay the same for 4 years.
July 21st, 2010 at 12:22 pm
“Brooks, Lowery
Martin, Budinger
Ariza, Battier
Scola, Patterson
Yao, B. Miller
That’s a VERY strong team.”
I’ll believe it when I see it. I think the Rockets finish somewhere around 6th in the West, but I dont see how they overcome LA. Care to enlighten me?
July 21st, 2010 at 12:29 pm
DieHardSpur
July 21st, 2010 at 11:37 am
“In this day and age – to be a TOP 5 PG(to command top dollar), you have to have 20pts and 10 ast, or as close to that as you can get(Tony knows this).With that being said, Steve Nash is the only guy in the league that averaged that last year. Tony’s numbers (while not being a ‘pass first’ pointguard) are still an 18 and 7.
If Tony pushes like he did in the playoffs year before last, he will be around 22 and 8ish… That definitely helps the SPURS organization. more assists and more points from the PG position.
These are the numbers I see Tony putting up this year. If he can stay healthy he should put up 20-8.”
I know that you’re main point here is that you expect Tony to be healthy, and have one of his best years, being that it’s a contract year. That said, you’re point would hold more water if you would resist the temptation to inflate numbers/projections.
Number one, Steve Nash did not average 20+ ppg. & 10+ apg. last year. In fact, he’s NEVER averaged 2o & 10 during his entire career, including his two MVP seasons. Last year he was at 16.5 ppg., & 11.1 apg. NO player averaged 20 ppg. & 10+ apg. last year. The closest was Deron Williams, and the injury plagued Chris Paul. 18 & 10 appears to be more realistic for the very top point guards.
Number two, TP’s numbers are not “18 ppg. & 7 apg.” His career averages are 16.6 pg. & 5.6 apg. His best years were the 4 years prior to last year, where he averaged about 18.5 ppg. & 6 apg. Also, it’s a big stretch to suggest that TP would have a realistic shot at getting to “22 ppg. & 8ish apg.” this year, since the best he’s EVER done in 9 seasons was 22.0 ppg. & 6.9 apg. (the only time ever above 20 ppg.), and that was without Manu for half the season, without RJ, and without the emergence of Hill. As a result, even “20 ppg. & 8 apg.” is a BIG stretch for this year.
That said, we don’t even need/want 20 ppg. & 8 apg. out of TP for us to be successful. The Spurs don’t require their PG’s to dominate the “passing” offense for the team. TP is more of a scorer, and passing is expected to be more evenly distributed among all the players than it is for most teams.
Thus, if we get 18 ppg. & 6.0 apg. from TP that would be PLENTY. We just need him to pick up the intensity with the rest of his game, and play a quality leadership role. If the rest of the team does the same, then we offer ourselves a chance to compete in the playoffs.
July 21st, 2010 at 12:37 pm
Jim -
When referencing TP’s numbers,
“If Tony pushes like he did in the playoffs year before last, he will be around 22 and 8ish… ”
With the kind of money being thrown around this offseason - look for tony to have the best numbers he has ever had (’08-”09 playoffs). He will be looking for a max contract and need to play his best; he has proven what he can do when healthy and wanting/having to produce.
I dont know why you feel you must validate everyones comments Jimmy boy…
July 21st, 2010 at 12:40 pm
Jim Henderson
“We could use a guy that’s done it before at the NBA level in the playoffs if we want our best chance to compete with the elite teams during Duncan’s window.”
Regarding a 3-point shooter. I heard the sixers might be looking to get rid of Jason Kapono.
His defense isn’t the best. But put into the right mix of players on this team, Kapono could be a good pick up for the Spurs as an insurance and proven NBA 3 point shooter.
July 21st, 2010 at 12:44 pm
@ Andrew (& Jacob):
Thanks - I just want to keep it as accurate as possible! This blog does a better job than most for keeping reports accurate and credible. Just trying to help keep it that way!
July 21st, 2010 at 12:45 pm
Jacob
July 21st, 2010 at 12:22 pm
“Care to enlighten me?”
Sure. A brief assessment of the match-ups:
Yao/Bynum - edge Rockets
Gasol/Scola - edge Lakers
Artest/Battier - toss-up
Brooks/Fisher - edge Rockets
Bryant/Martin - edge Lakers
Second team:
Miller/Mbenga - edge Rockets
Odom/Patterson - edge Lakers
Ariza/Walton - edge Rockets
Budinger/Vujacic - edge Rockets
Blake/Lowery - edge Lakers
5 edges to Rockets
4 edges to Lakers
1 toss-up
You’re enlightened!
If you care to argue the assessment, pull out the stats, as a necessary component to back-up your argument, or don’t even bother making the argument. It’d be a waste of everyone’s time.
July 21st, 2010 at 12:52 pm
i expect tony to have an excellent year. i hope that the additions of splitter, anderson and the evolution of dejuan blair and george hill would be a good incentive for tony parker stick around and be the leader of this new and promising spurs team.
i agree with jim that the rockets are primed to contend with l.a., but much like us with timmy, adleman has to find regular season rest for YAO. can’t wait to see that monster back on the floor.
does anyone have any suggestions or anything at all on our search for another wing?
i still like the idea of signing cletus….i mean adam morrison
July 21st, 2010 at 12:55 pm
and what the hell is up with dallas. haywood, chandler, mahinmi, some other guy, and possibly kaman?
is mark puban their gm? i have no idea what they are thinking…..but who cares….
July 21st, 2010 at 12:57 pm
DieHardSpur
July 21st, 2010 at 12:37 pm
“I dont know why you feel you must validate everyones comments Jimmy boy…”
My comment had nothing to do with “validating” yours or anybody else’s comments. It has EVERYTHING to do with trying to keep information/stats on here as accurate as possible when trying to make a point. My post simply pointed out that the stats that you used were either inaccurate, misleading, or both. And that is a fact. Steve Nash did not “average 20 & 10 last year”. Right?!
DieHard boy, why can’t you just accept the fact that you got a little loose with the numbers, and doing that really doesn’t help to keep things “real” around here. It’s nothing personal, but if people try their best to make credible comments by using actual documented stats, for example, it preserves this blog as a useful source for engaging in analysis, as opposed to the countless blogs that have readers that just want to shoot their mouth off.
July 21st, 2010 at 1:02 pm
@ Eric
Of course. I definitely appreciate readers taking pride in the content we put out there and calling us out when it’s absolutely necessary.
July 21st, 2010 at 1:09 pm
@ Dr. Who - Have you seen how good this Rangers team is (I’m assuming you mean the Texas team not the NY one)? I’ve done it before, but I’m all-in with this team! I actually haven’t minded the temperatures out at the Convection Oven called the Ballpark as much because they’re seriously entertaining, never out of a game and WINNING!
I will completely agree about the Astros, however. Sucks for their fans - that and the fact McClane won’t trade the few pieces he has at a fair market value to get something going for their future. Hoser.
Anyway, on topic: Glad to have RJ back, actually. I’m hoping the time he put in with Pop pays dividends in his confidence with the scheme this year. I think the FO has done a pretty solid job with the options they had. I am intrigued by the possibility of Adam Morrison (did I hear correctly that he finally got rid of that thing on his face?). If the game were to finally click for him he’d be a very nice piece.
As happy as I am with the Rangers progress, and the fact that the Cowboys start Training Camp this weekend, I really cannot wait for this NBA season to see where this team can go!
July 21st, 2010 at 1:11 pm
rob
July 21st, 2010 at 12:40 pm
“Regarding a 3-point shooter. I heard the sixers might be looking to get rid of Jason Kapono.
His defense isn’t the best. But put into the right mix of players on this team, Kapono could be a good pick up for the Spurs as an insurance and proven NBA 3 point shooter.”
Yeah, the following is what I said on a previous thread/post on this topic:
Jim Henderson
July 20th, 2010 at 9:42 pm
“Rumor has it that Philly is open to trading Kapono (http://www.prosportsdaily.com/comments/sixers-open-to-moving-kapono-389686.html). They’re too top-heavy at the wing, and Kapono’s got one year left at 6.6 mil. per. Plus, I think Philly, under Doug Collin’s, is looking to be a running team that has the versatile athletes necessary to create turnovers & burn opponents in the open-court/transition game. Kapono does not fit that style, and the fast pace would merely accentuate his weaknesses defensively.
I suggest that we make Philly the following offer:
McDyess (or Bonner, if they’d want to assume his 4-year contract!) & Gee for Kapono, and then sign Amundson with our 2.4 mil. MLE.
Parker, Hill
Manu, Anderson
RJ, Kapono, Hairston
Duncan, Blair, Bonner
Splitter, Amundson
Temple
Amundson would help us defensively, and Kapono is about the best shooter we could possible get to back-up RJ (#1 active career 3-point shooter (44%), 54% in two playoff appearances, and is deadly in spot-ups), and could give us some firepower & floor-spacing off the bench for about 15-17 mpg.”
I don’t know if Philly would bite on such a deal (although Gee is a young prospect that fits their emerging style, & Dice provides veteran depth on their front line), but it might be worth offering in my view.
July 21st, 2010 at 1:24 pm
As it stands right now, predicted seedings in the West:
Lakers
Rockets
Blazers
Mavs
Spurs
Nuggets
OKC
Jazz
8th seed dark horse’s:
Suns
Grizzlies
Kings
Clippers
July 21st, 2010 at 2:05 pm
i really do like rj just not as a spot up shooter which so many people can agree with yet i really want to wonder what would have happened had we not signed rj last summer and had been one of the teams with cap space to lure a big name free agent. yes the spurs are not a big market franchise yet they are the only small market with more than 2 championships. i do wonder why a big name would turn us down as well. yes we do have td who is getting older yet still has more than few years in the tank. tp will get his big payday next summer from the SPURS and we re-signed manu. who would not have wanted to come especially with george hill, dejuan blair and tiago splitter just starting to make names for themselves?
July 21st, 2010 at 2:05 pm
Jim,
I think your overrating the rockets. They just weren’t very good last year. They won 42 games and had a negative point and efficiency differential (consistent with winning 39-40 games). So they were about average.
So what are they adding? Here’s your projected roster.
““Brooks, Lowery
Martin, Budinger
Ariza, Battier
Scola, Patterson
Yao, B. Miller”
Yao Ming is of course excellent and I’m willing to assume for the purposes of this discussion that he’s healthy for most of the season (obviously if he’s not the rockets are in trouble again). He probably brings them to 50 wins. They also gained Brad Miller and Patrick Patterson. Patterson is an untested rookie so I have no idea how good he will be. In general players are below average their rookie year. Brad Miller has been a good player throughout his career, but suffered a sharp decline last year dropping a lot in both shooting efficiency and rebounding.
They are also getting a full year of Kevin Martin who is a good player and should rebound from last year. However, they are also losing the minutes they got from Landry and Hayes so this may balance out. To me this is a 50 win team. They get a big improvement from adding Yao, and not much else.
July 21st, 2010 at 2:08 pm
@ Jim
I’m not sure that the whole Rockets / Lakers thing is something that I would even want to go to stats on… not that I dont value stats, its just not an debate I would care to get too deep into. I guess if you look at it like that, sure, they look like they have a shot, but we both know it’s not a straight numbers / statistics game, it’s a basketball game and anything can happen. They won’t line up against each other 1-13 respectively, 16th century british army style, and mathematically cancel each other out according to their statistical value.
I guess what I’m really trying to say is that I have a really hard time envisioning the Rockets doing anything to the Lakers in a playoff series. I know about their past success in ’09, and I recognize their potential to be good, but putting it together is a different animal, and thats’s something they have had a really, really hard time trying to do. I’m also not saying that you’re wrong in your estimation, but I’m not saying that I think you’re right either. Like I said, I’ll have to see it to believe it. On Paper, both Dallas and the Spurs looked like western conference finals contenders last year, that didnt happen either.
BTW, on a side note, completely unrelated to hoops, I thought that I would mention to you that sometimes the way you write comes off as being sort of arrogant or condescending. I doubt it is your intention, but just so you know, making comments at the end of a post like ” … as a necessary component to back-up your argument, or don’t even bother making the argument. It’d be a waste of everyone’s time.” kind of rubs me the wrong way. Not to get too philosophical here but is this fan blog ever really going beyond the realm of entertainment into productive time wasting? I would understand and agree with that sort of statement if we were all on the payroll here and our jobs were to discuss and analyze the stats and possibilites for the club so that we could make an actual difference in the organizations direction, but we’re just here because we love ‘em… at least I know I am. Like I said, I dont think you mean to come across that way, but if you want to avoid the possibility of sounding like a jerk, you might reconsider the approach. Thanks -
July 21st, 2010 at 2:21 pm
One year in the system, RJ’s play should improve. As awhile, the Spurs should play better with nearly everyone returning. Add Tiago, James Anderson, plus the best from the Summer League and the Spurs have the makings for a much-improved ball club in 2010/2011.
July 21st, 2010 at 2:47 pm
bduran
July 21st, 2010 at 2:05 pm
“To me this is a 50 win team. They get a big improvement from adding Yao, and not much else.”
Number one, a healthy Yao is a HUGE benefit. He’s easily the TOP center in the entire league. Even that alone is worth at least 8 games, which would take the team to 50. In Yao’s last year before the injury, his WP was about 12. That would actually take them to 54 wins.
Number two, the rest of the team is simply better this year than last year, or the year before, when they won 53 games. Examples, Ariza, age 24, still getting better; Brooks, age 25, moving into his prime years after winning most improved player last year; Lowery, age 23, still getting better; Budinger, age 21, still getting better; Patterson looks like a very talented 15th pick, and is likely to have a positive impact; Martin, age 26, is much better than a “good” player, he’s averaged nearly 22 ppg. over his last 6 seasons, including 39% from three, and 86% from the line - he only played just over a quarter of the season with Houston last year (don’t bother getting into efficiency stats - those gross numbers are very good in and of themselves); Miller is a great compliment to Yao, and a great fit with coach Adelman - had some great years with him in Sacramento, and has plenty left for a reserve role on the Rockets - a clear upgrade
And of course, they have the savvy and strong complimentary players in the veterans Scola & Battier, who missed most of the last 20 Rocket games last year on account of injury. You also didn’t care to comment on the match-up edge I give to the Rockets. I wonder why?
So, no, it is clear that you are in fact are underestimating the Houston Rockets. They will be a force to contend with this year.
July 21st, 2010 at 2:55 pm
@ Jim
I disagree with your assertion that the Rockets will be so good. The Rockets were better than expected last season because of Brooks improvement. There’s no way possible he improves that dramatically again, so he’s basically as good as he’s gonna get. Now throw Yao into the mix, and the game slows way down, which hurts Brooks. Also, I’m not convinced that Brooks, Martin, and Yao can all share the ball efficiently and effectively. The biggest issue is the HUGE assumption that Yao is/will stay healthy.
I think OKC makes a serious run at the 1 seed this year. They are unafraid. Plus, they’re all young and can handle big minutes, so while most teams (LA, Spurs, Suns, Utah) are managing minutes, they’ll be racking up wins. My West seeding is as follows:
Lakers
OKC
Mavs
Jazz
Spurs
Suns
Blazers
Denver
Houston and Memphis will just fall short.
I think the West is back to the point where there are 10 teams good enough to hit 50 wins. I don’t see any team getting more than 60 wins in the west. It’s just going to be too brutal playing against a playoff team every other game. If a team has any distractions (locker room issues, whining about touches/minutes, injuries), that could cost them several games and drop them out of the playoff race. That’s where I see Houston faltering: either a Yao injury or a touches issue between Brooks, Yao, and Martin.
On a different note, I’m glad Jefferson is back. I’m encouraged by his committment to working with Pop all summer. His numbers can only improve this next year.
On another different note, I hate baseball. SportsCenter sucks so bad right now.
July 21st, 2010 at 2:56 pm
Jim Henderson
July 21st, 2010 at 1:24 pm
“As it stands right now, predicted seedings in the West:
Lakers
Rockets
Blazers
Mavs
Spurs
Nuggets
OKC
Jazz”
The only team I am sure about in the West is the Lakers. Everyone else could be anywhere from 2nd to 8th seed (including the Spurs if they don’t gell well enough). How will Utah come together after losing key, veteran pieces yet picking up other valuable players? Will Portland ever realize their “potential” or will they be like the Hornest of 2008 that were supposed to challenge the Lakers for the next 5 years? What about Houston? Sure they have Ming back and a somewhat solid supporting cast, but when and where will injury strike? IMO, the Nuggets, who have brought very little help in the past 2 years, have peaked and will steadily decline (see Timberwolves 2004). Can OKC’s young talent continue to develop and challenge LA? These questions lead me to believe the West, after LA, is virtually wide open.
Theoretically, I can see how you would put the Blazers closely behind the Lakers. On paper, they do look to be a good team with a large front line of Oden, Pryz, and Camby. However, I really don’t see the Rockets being a top 4 team in the west. In fact, I view both the Rockets and Blazers as being very similar. How many years now have people been saying “if only the Rockets were healty, they’d be challenging for the top spot in the west.”
This has been much the case for the Blazers.
With regards to the Rockets, I would guess people have been saying the same thing for somewhere around 5 years this has been the case. In every year, T-Mac and/or Yao have been injured. My point is that neither team has proven ANYTHING in the playoffs. They are both teams full of “potential.” Opinions aside, the Rockets have very little depth at the PF, SG, and even arguably the PG position. I contend that their backcourt will not match up well against the Lakers, Spurs, Mavs, or Thunder.
As I’ve previously stated, the Blazers have “potential,” but very little playoff results to justify being a top 4 team. History shows that with Oden and Pryz, it’s not a question of “if” they go down during the season. It is a question of “when.” Here are how many games the trio of Oden, Pryz, and Camby have missed over the past two years.
Oden: 82
Pryzbilla: 52 (but has a HUGE injury history beyond that)
Camby: 28 (has NEVER played all 82 games in his 14 years in the league)
No way in hell I would want to go into the season knowing I would have to defeat the Lakers, Spurs, Nuggs, and Rockets bigs with this front line.
I don’t contend that the Spurs should be second in the West at this point, but neither would I put two teams who have a total of 1 playoff series win in the last eight years (it was the Houston-Portland series last year. Someone had to win) ahead of more veteran teams like the Spurs and Mavs.
July 21st, 2010 at 3:12 pm
Firebrand
July 21st, 2010 at 10:43 am
“I mean EVERY other team in the west looks weaker than last year well all the top teams with the exception of Dallas who pretty much stayed the same, the Lakers who got even better with some depth at the point and us .”
There is some kind of overwhelming sentiment that the West has really weakended themselves and that bodes well for the Spurs. I like how the word “EVERY” is in caps. I think an excellent article would be an unbiased assessment of West offseason moves and how they affect the Spurs ***HINT HINT Andrew*** OK so cap lock is off. I think if you take the time to look closer at what has happened in the West you might realize it isn’t going to be an easy road to the WCF or playoffs for that matter. Remember that last year the West race was tighter than North Korea’s “Fun and Entertainment” budget. So I’ll do my best to take a look at the West offseason for 2010 (since am an Astros fan and have nothing better to do) until we get a proper article which will be much better than this one. So here we go…
Two sleeper teams that weren’t really in the playoff hunt that could make some noise are the Clippers and Grizzlies. PLEASE KEEP READING. Yes I’m probably about to lose all credibility by mentioning the Clippers and Grizz together, but when you look at what the Clippers have done or haven’t done it’s actually pretty good. They haven’t participated in the ridiculous overspending of the offseason (see Kaaaaaaahn!) and continue to fill their roster with talented players through the draft and FA. I think bringing in Foye, Gomes and a new coach in Del Negro are all nice additions. Nothing too flashy, but being smart and not overpaying for talent. A healthy Blake Griffin should make the team fun to watch. Memphis is a young athletic team (that over paid Rudy Gay), but they are a talented young group. Adding Tony Allen could be a what they needed to offset the loss of Brewer. I don’t see either of these teams knocking of the Fakers for top dog in the West but they are poised to make some noise. It wouldn’t surprise me if one of them managed to snag a playoff spot. But then again let’s take a look at those playoff teams and spots. Now on to the real teams in West.
-Phoenix Suns: This team is the reason why people say the West got weaker. The loss of Amare is huge, but they could do worse that get Warrick as a replacement. He’s fleet footed and uber athletic. He’s not an automatic 20pts a night like Amare, but he will have Nash to work with and that can’t hurt. Holding onto Channing Frye could be a big deal depending upon which Frye we’re talking about. The “freak of nature can’t miss Vs. the Spurs Frye” is a stone cold assassin and a great re-sign. The “I can’t hit the side of a barn miss every shot Vs. Lakers” Frye is just another body. It will be a major stretch if the Suns can make it to the WCF again. They’ll be a scrappy team, but the loss of Amare should be apparent with this team…unless their other offseason move pays off. If Turk plays like the Spurs/Toronto Turk, the Suns may very well miss the playoffs. They’ll also be stuck with his contract for years to come which will feel awesome if you’re Suns fan. If he plays like the Orlando Turk, well then this could be an entertaining team to watch sans Amare (with a possible playoff appearance). Turk could be the steal of the offseason; however, I’m taking the under on this one.
-Denver Nuggets: Not much has changed with this team. They were very strong during the season, but plummeted as George Karl was away fighting for his life. Mad props to our own George Karl for fighting the good fight and beating cancer! There are no major changes to this team aside from the addition of Al Harrington. With Karl courtside again, they should be just as strong if not stronger than they were last season. It will be good to see Karl back and you have to believe his story will inspire an already talented team.
-OK City Thunder: Presti has done a great job with this young team doing the most important thing he could for this young franchise; he stayed away from high priced FA’s and was able to ink Durant to a long term deal. The rest of the summer was spent on role players. Good things are in store for the young Thunder and with one more year under Durant’s belt I can’t see how OK City will be weaker.
-Portland Trail Blazers: Yet another Spurs tie (Del Negro, Karl, Presti and now Pritchard) has done an exception job with the artists formerly known as the “JailBlazers.” This team is young and stacked full of talent. No other team was as decimated by injuries as Portland last year. I can recall at least 8 Trail Blazers missing extended time due to injuries. This included losing Pryzbilla and Oden for the season and Roy for a key stretch in the play-off push April. They still managed to make the playoffs and compete. If they come back healthy, they will be a solid playoff team. Not weaker by any stretch, however… in a “what were they thinking move”, classy Paul Allen dumped Pritchard but told him he needed to stick around for the draft. That’s like dumping your girlfriend and as she’s walking away crying, asking her to clean your bathroom, make you a sandwich and wash your car. Classy… Way to repay a guy that helped re-build your franchise Mr. Allen. The Blazers acted immediately by signing Wesley Matthews to a 5 year 34 million dollar contract. Welsey Matthews? Welsey Snipes doesn’t even deserve that much money and the Demolition Man can ball, I’ve seen the movie! “You so stoooopid Biiilleeee.” Fantastic work gentlemen, give yourselves raises. The bet now is on how long it will take for the organization to ruin itself once more after assembling a talented roster. Should take them at least a few years before they can screw it up. I predict a melt down about as fun to watch as a Capulet Montague reunion.
-Dallas Mavericks: Speaking of classless… Oh how I love to hate the Mavericks. Their team hasn’t changed much. They got rid of Dumpier and picked up Chandler. This actually hurts the Spurs because Timmy has zero problems with Damps. Chandler plays better D on Duncan, but hopefully he’ll be hurt. Still, they have Haywood and plenty of length to cause problems for the Spurs. They’re not done dealing yet either. I hate Cuban but he does shake his team up. This is a team that should still be strong next year with Roddy Beaubois (who can flat out ball) getting more experience and playing time int he playoffs. Pop outcoached Carlisle last year in the playoffs. Let’s hope Jim Carey doesn’t have any tricks up his sleeve and the trend continues.
-The Houston Rockettes: I am a SA transplant and live in Houston. Yao coming back has this town speaking about playoffs and the WCF. They are very serious here too. Does it sound far fetched? The Rockets are a very deep team and signing Brad Miller with a healthy Yao is a huge step forward. What Daryl Morey does is makes quiet calculated very good moves. Quiet is the key here. This is the same guy that did statistical analysis and then used NBA Live to test if the Rockets would be better with Ron Artest. They lost Yao that year (oh yeah and in other news if ya fall out of a boat you usually get wet) and Artest was huge in the playoffs; giving the Fakers a run for their money. Morey is one of those Matt Damon “Wicked Smart” MIT kids. This year is no different for Morey by drafting a solid Patterson, holding onto Lowry, getting Brad Miller and reaping the reward with a full season of Martin whom he received for dumping Tracey McGradey. Boring offseason? Yes? Smart moves? Yes? This team was competitive without Yao for almost the entire season but needed an extra umph to make a playoff run. Adding Yao/Miller to the deep group with a full K-Mart season will only help . This team is not going to be weaker. How much better the team is all hinges on Yao’s health. If he’s healthy they are a team to look out for. But that is one big if.
-Utah Jazz: The Jazz lost Boozer and I will not miss him hitting that one legged, off balance, fade away jumper while someone had a hand in his face. That jumper went in about 95% of the time I was watching the TV and had a small breakable object that looked a lot like a TV remote in my hand (I am currently attending anger management classes). Seemed like his game always was raised for the Spurs. Boozer was a perfect center for the pick and roll. Now they have Al Jefferson. Question… can the Spurs trade Richard Jefferson for Al Jefferson and tell them somehow the names are wrong on the jerseys and contracts? Jefferson is just as good a center as Boozer, however they are sort of different animals. Jefferson is more of an inside presence who bangs down low and mixes it up, not a pick and roll center. This should be an interesting fit for Utah. A little known fact of history is that mankind discovered fire about the same time Jerry Sloan started coaching the pick and roll. You will see tons of it next year and the year after that and the year after that until Sloan finally spontaneously combusts. Yes, he’s old as dirt, looks like a used tire salesman and loves the pick and roll. It will be typical Jerry Sloan basketball. Boozer and Jefferson have similar numbers 20-10, but Boozer isn’t really a low post center. What will be different this year is that Jefferson will be playing down low and it will be tougher to D up on the pick and rolls that will be coming from all over the court. And they will come. Not sure how much Sloan will tinker with Jefferson’s game and try ot make him into a Milsap/Boozer pick and roll center. I’m guessing this team will be better with a true low post center. The loss of Korver hurts less with that guy they picked up. What’s his name??? Oh yeah… Hayward… and yes Raja Bell; who many of us on this board were about to put together a telethon so he’d sign here. At worst they are the same team they were last year and that is a very good one, but I’d expect them to be a bit better with the additions they’ve made. Sloan, for all the ribbing I’ve given him here, is an outstanding and underrated coach that consistently produces strong playoff teams. Next year will be no different.
So that’s 6 playoff teams. Misssing are the Lakers (who we know got better with the signing of Blake) and our own San Antonio Spurs. I’ve already assessed our offseason in a previous post, but the FO did the best they could and that was pretty darn good actually. We didn’t lose anyone from a 50 win team, resigned RJ to a better contract, got what is projected as yet another draft day “ready for the NBA” steal and got that big guy who was playing in Spain Luis Scola… I mean Splitter. Just making sure you’re still reading. Splitter should make the Spurs better defensively where they were sorely lacking. We haven’t been able to run the old defense of the wings funneling players inside to two shot blockers in ages. Hopefully Splitter is able to play beside Duncan and we can relive a bit of the good ol’ defensive days. This helps the overall team defense. How much will it help without a true shut down wing defender? We’ll have to wait and see, but the Spurs improved just like just about all of last year’s playoff team aside from the Suns. A healthy TP sans plantar fasciitis will be a welcome sight as well. Should make for an interesting year!
July 21st, 2010 at 3:24 pm
Of course after I post “War and Peace” I see other posters have the same playoff teams from last year in the playoffs once again. Glad to know not everyone has lost their senses. The West is truly wide open; everyone hasn’t downgraded aside from Phoenix. It’s the Lakers and everyone else. It will probably be as crazy as last year coming down to the final weeks of the season.
July 21st, 2010 at 3:28 pm
Jacob
July 21st, 2010 at 2:08 pm
“They won’t line up against each other 1-13 respectively, 16th century british army style, and mathematically cancel each other out according to their statistical value.”
Fine, but statistics is ALL we have at our disposal in terms of objective facts that have shown to directly bear on team performance. Why would anyone not feel obliged to use them to augment an argument? Otherwise all we have is a bunch of nobody’s (including me, of course!) spouting out “merely subject opinion”.
“I guess what I’m really trying to say is that I have a really hard time envisioning the Rockets doing anything to the Lakers in a playoff series.”
Fine, as long as you know that this assertion is nothing more than personal opinion. Which is all hunky-dory, and is certainly not meant to suggest that anyone’s personal opinion on here is not worth anything. Nevertheless, we have to admit that the “personal opinion” of a bunch of strangers on a blog is not equal in value as a “basketball argument” as is a personal opinion augmented by some objective data.
“On Paper, both Dallas and the Spurs looked like western conference finals contenders last year, that didnt happen either.”
I don’t agree with that, and I’m certainly NOT suggesting that the Rockets WILL go to the WCF’s this year, only that you can’t honestly say that they don’t have just as good of a chance as anybody else in the West outside of the defending champion Lakers.
“BTW, on a side note, completely unrelated to hoops, I thought that I would mention to you that sometimes the way you write comes off as being sort of arrogant or condescending.”
I would say sarcastic at times, and annoyed on occasion with some of the rather silly assertions that are made with some regularity on this blog. However, many of us from time to time on here get into a somewhat arrogant or condescending spiel on occasion. For the most part it is relatively harmless, unless it devolves into outrageous accusations and/or personal insults, which I rarely, if ever, initiate.
This line from your previous post was certainly a bit of a “jab” on your part, don’t you think?:
“I’ll believe it when I see it. I think the Rockets finish somewhere around 6th in the West, but I dont see how they overcome LA.
Care to enlighten me?”
Anyway, no offense taken, but by the same token, if you’re going to project the Rockets 6th in the West, with no reasonable chance at contending with LA, it only makes sense for you to question my player comparison of the two teams, backed up by some form of objective reasoning, otherwise you could simply say that, “you might be right”, or “I don’t want to take the time to look up the stats”, or “my personal opinion is that I just don’t think the Rockets have what it takes to really contend in the West”. Something of that nature.
I treat the blog as “fun” as well. I just think that having “fun” and backing up our arguments with some relatively simple to acquire objective data are not mutually exclusive. And in my view, that makes for a more informative & interesting blog.
July 21st, 2010 at 3:51 pm
“So, no, it is clear that you are in fact are underestimating the Houston Rockets.”
You are awesome.
I, do however, agree with a lot of what you say about the current Rockets roster. However, here’s why I think the Rockets will be around the 50 win mark.
Brad Miller sucked last year, not an upgrade if he plays that way again. -.57 WP48, 43% FG (terrible for a center), 4.9 rbds and .4 blocks in 23.8 min. Not good. I don’t normally expect players to rebound from bad year when they are in their mid 30s. This is the age when players normally decline rapidly.
Since 2006 Yaos WP are 11.5, 8.3, 7.3, 10.8. So if Yao returns to peak form we can expect about 11 wins produced. Not net wins added. His minutes have to come from somewhere. Last year it looks like their front court was primarily, Hayes, Landry, Scola, Anderson, and Battier. A large part of Yao’s minutes will be replacing Hayes and Landry who are solid players. So even at peak form he’s not worth 11 wins.
Patterson is a rookie. No reason to think he’ll be worth much this year. It’s very hard to predict a rookies impact and I certainly wouldn’t count on significant impact in any kind of mid summer team analysis.
So, they added Yao, Miller, and Patterson. Only one of these players can be reasonably expected to contribute significantly to team wins. They lost two productive players in Landry and Hayes. This does not get you to 50 wins.
So in addition I would hope for significant improvement from Martin, although he has had two sub par years in a row now. Lowry may improve some as well. I’m not a big fan of brooks. Mostly a scorer and not a terribly efficient one. Last year they produced 40 wins, I think they added about 10 wins. We’ll see.
Last year the Spurs produced 54 wins, and we’ve improved. So I think the Spurs will be better than the Rockets, and LA is likely to be the #1 seed again.
” You also didn’t care to comment on the match-up edge I give to the Rockets. I wonder why?”
Probably because it’s a terrible way to evaluate teams. In your accounting Miller>Mbenga is equal to Odom>Patterson.
This is where things like WP48 and WP come in very handy. Even if we correctly evaluate what players are better, how do we quantify how much? Or the impact of minutes?
July 21st, 2010 at 4:09 pm
ThatBigGuy
July 21st, 2010 at 2:55 pm
Quite a discrepancy in our views. Let’s put it this way, if I had a million dollars I would bet it ALL that the Rockets make the playoffs this year. I’ll leave it at that.
Hobson13
July 21st, 2010 at 2:56 pm
“In fact, I view both the Rockets and Blazers as being very similar. How many years now have people been saying “if only the Rockets were healthy, they’d be challenging for the top spot in the west.””
Yeah, that’s why I put the Rockets & Blazers right next to each other in my rankings. The Rockets were seeded 5th in the West in 2008-2009 (when they had Yao last), just ONE GAME behind the Nuggets, Spurs, & Blazers. The fact is, the Rockets are simply better this year. They have Martin, Ariza, the rookie Patterson, and most of the rest of their key players are made up of “quality” young talent, or very good veteran players in their prime years. Plus, Miller is a clear upgrade at back-up center, and Adelman is one of the best coaches in the league.
“My point is that neither team has proven ANYTHING in the playoffs.”
Well if you mean a WCF appearance or better, how many teams have been fortunate enough to get there in the last 5 years? Are you going to limit your pool of “real” challengers to this ultra select group, which includes a Sun’s & Jazz team that just lost their star PF, and a Denver team that has now past their peak?
“Here are how many games the trio of Oden, Pryz, and Camby have missed over the past two years.”
Don’t you think the odds are with them now?
Camby’s played in 83% of his games the past 6 seasons; Pryz - 74%. Not great, but since they have THREE pretty talented centers, not that bad. Oden’s had it rough his first few years, but he’s due for a more healthy year, unless you just happen to think that he’s Bill Walton reincarnated? Perhaps, but unlikely.
The bottom line: I didn’t really reflect injury odds into my rankings. It’s a really difficult thing to do. I also don’t give that much weight to the good fortune of relatively recent playoff success, otherwise let’s just chuck OKC out as well, which I certainly wouldn’t do. The only issue I have with them is that they don’t have hardly any “really good, experienced veterans” on the team.
July 21st, 2010 at 4:32 pm
“Let’s put it this way, if I had a million dollars I would bet it ALL that the Rockets make the playoffs this year.”
I would never bet a million dollars on Yao’s health.
July 21st, 2010 at 4:41 pm
THATS GREAT WE START HIM AND BRING IN ALONZO GEE.GREAT COMBO
July 21st, 2010 at 5:16 pm
bduran
July 21st, 2010 at 4:32 pm
“I would never bet a million dollars on Yao’s health.”
But I’m not betting it on Yao’s health. This year, the Rockets are so talented & deep at every position that they WILL make the playoffs even IF Yao goes down at some point during the season.
July 21st, 2010 at 5:34 pm
“Well if you mean a WCF appearance or better, how many teams have been fortunate enough to get there in the last 5 years? Are you going to limit your pool of “real” challengers to this ultra select group, which includes a Sun’s & Jazz team that just lost their star PF, and a Denver team that has now past their peak?”
Jim, these teams have a combined 1 playoff series win in the last 8 years! I would like to see one of these teams at least make the playoffs on a consistent basis. Getting past the first round a couple of times over this period of time would be nice. We can talk about all the “potential” we want. The only thing that means a damn is what a team does in the playoffs and neither team has done much for virtually a decade.
July 21st, 2010 at 6:11 pm
Check out this link: http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/2010/07/its-four-more-y.html
Apparently Jefferson signed a 4 year deal worth up to $38.9 mil. Here is how they have it broken down:
Year 1: $8.4 Mil
Year 2: $9.2 Mil
Year 3: $10.16 Mil
Year 4: $11.046 Mil (partially guaranteed)
This was higher than what I thought we would give him. It will take Jefferson almost two years to make what he would have hauled in this year, but overall, I’m a bit mixed on my feelings about this deal. I would like to know what all is guaranteed for the 4th year. Thoughts?
July 21st, 2010 at 6:22 pm
bduran
July 21st, 2010 at 3:51 pm
I won’t bother going into much depth with this post. I’d first like to ask to to address a few important items that you failed to account for in your previous post.
“A large part of Yao’s minutes will be replacing Hayes and Landry who are solid players.”
(1) That’s fine, they about offset. But then you don’t fully take into account for the addition of Martin. His wins produced, based on a pro-rated full season (70+ games) average about 10 wins produced on average over the past 5 years. His added minutes this year will likely come from the aging Battier, as Ariza will assume more of his natural position at the three spot. Battier only produced about 2 wins last year. That’s a net 8 right there.
(2) You also don’t take into account that Yao is one of those centers that makes his teammates better. Thus, other players are likely to have slightly more efficient production as a result. I would add about 2.5 wins by this factor alone.
(3) You also don’t factor in the likely improvement in wins produced from their young players, particularly a promising player going from his rookie to second year: in this case, Budinger. For example, G.Hill’s WP in 2010 increased by 355% from what it was in his rookie season of 2009. In Hill’s case, a good part of it was on account of his 78% increase in minutes played, so we could adjust his rookie-sophomore portion of the gain down to about 75%. In Budinger’s case, his minutes “might” get reduced a relatively small amount to also help account for Martin - lets say 5 mpg. less, which would be about a 25% reduction in minutes. But also give him the reasonable 75% rookie-sophomore gain, and his WP still increases by about another 2.5 wins.
(4) And if you’re going to “get rid of” both Landry & Hayes (49 minutes), when Yao averages about 33 mpg., you have to give the extra 16 minutes to other front court players, particularly NEW ones like Brad Miller. I think you can throw out last year as an anomaly for Miller. He just turned 34 (TD’s age), has no major injuries, and plays the type of game where a lot of wear & tear on his body has not been as big of a factor during his career (his game doesn’t rely on quickness or explosiveness). Plus he feels comfortable playing in an Adelman run system. His average wins produced the 4 years prior was about 6.5, averaging about 29 mpg. So I would estimate about 3 wins added here.
These types of adjustments are reasonable, and could realistically raise the Rocket win total from 42 to 58 wins. Obviously this is all based on the Rockets being healthy much of the year.
July 21st, 2010 at 6:52 pm
Hobson13
July 21st, 2010 at 5:34 pm
“Jim, these teams have a combined 1 playoff series win in the last 8 years!”
The point is, only the Mavs have (besides LA & us), other than the declining Suns, Nuggets, & Jazz.
That leaves LA, the Spurs, & the Mavs. Are we going to throw everybody else out of the top half of the draw because of recent playoff success, or lack thereof? Are we going to throw OKC out because not only have they not won a playoff series in the last 8 years, they’ve only been in one! Also, it’s not like the Spurs have a stellar playoff record in the past three years: a 2nd, & two 1st round exits. And WE have an AGING CORE, and a number of, for the most part, UNPROVEN young players that as a whole are probably less talented then are the Rocket players age 26 and under. And we know the Mavs can be flaky, and their off-season hasn’t been to great yet either.
Look, I’m not disagreeing that the West, below the Lakers, is pretty much wide open, but the West is not weakening overall as some would suggest. We’re still haven’t improved our position that much. And I do give some credit for teams that have playoff experience, but there’s only so much you can give credit to there. OKC’s a perfect example: took LA to six “tough” games in their 1st playoff experience as a franchise in I don’t know how long. It comes down to who has the talent, desire, chemistry, coaching to win at a high level. I think the Rockets are right there. Sure, injuries are perhaps more of a wild card with them than for some teams, but even Yao, before last year, had played in 84% of his teams games.
Finally, my rankings makes it apparent that I think the Spurs need to do more to get closer to LA. We need to get an experienced veteran shooter to back up RJ, and a energy/defender guy to chip in on the interior. If we could land Kapono & Amundson (or something similar), I’d be more inclined to give us a better shot at the #2 seed. Without those kinds of additions, everything would have to go perfect for us to get into the top tier, in my view.
July 21st, 2010 at 7:02 pm
Hobson13
July 21st, 2010 at 6:11 pm
The partial guarantee in year four is fine, but the salaries for years one, two, and three are too high. He better have a more productive next few years than he did in his first at that price. That said, it’s an inflated market this year. That’s why RJ opted out before the new CBA. And right now, were stuck with a lack-luster option at SF, and did not have the resources to sign anyone better. I assume the trade options were looked into and were not too appealing. Who knows! In the end it looks like we did in fact NEED each other. We had his bird rights, so we could offer RJ the best deal as well (barring a trade). Let’s hope the dependence doesn’t end up backfiring for the Spurs. GO RJ!!!!!
July 21st, 2010 at 7:30 pm
Jim,
Do you watch basketball games?
-B
PS W/r/t RJ - I was a big booster, and later an apologist last season, so it’s fair to take my opinion with a grain of salt. Like others have said, the problem wasn’t that he averaged “only” 12 ppg, but that his scoring was _so_ inconsistent and that he barely contributed at all on nights that he didn’t contribute points. If he can eliminate those nothing games, or if Pop can learn him some defensive consistency, we’re set. But he wants to play for us, we’ve got a spot for him, so let him play. The Spurs could not and will not find a better all-around FA to plug in at the 3 this offseason. We don’t need much out of him, and I know he’s capable of not giving us much. Honest, though, good luck to RJ this season.
July 21st, 2010 at 7:32 pm
Also I’d like to hear about the Spurs’ secret 1st rd. exit.
July 21st, 2010 at 7:44 pm
Jim,
Allright, looking at WP48 here’s what I came up with. I used your lineup above and the numbers are minutes, wp48, wp. I used Kevin Martins and Yaos best years. Miller I gave a zero, I don’t think a drop at 34 is a fluke. I gave Budinger the same wp48 as Martin. I gave Patterson the rookies average.
Yao 32 .215 11.7
Miller 0 0 0
Scola 33 .150 8.46
Patterson 15 .050 1.28
Ariza 36 .081 4.98
Battier 12 .050 1.03
Brooks 36 .049 3.01
Lowry 12 .191 3.92
Total 50.12
So I stand by what I said about your roster. Sure some things could go better like Scola could be better and Lowry could take some minutes from Brooks. Still I also built in some things like giving Yao and Martin their best season numbers and matching Budinger’s WP48 to Martin’s. So this seems like a reasonable projection. Obviously things could go better or worse.
However, after looking at the roster I see the name Jordan Hill. Turns out he was very solid in 13 minutes a game last year. So now I’m going to present a Rockets best case scenario.
If we give Scola numbers from 2009 when he played with Yao, switch Brooks and Lowry’s minutes and replace Miller’s with Jordan Hill the win total becomes 63.7. Of course this won’t happen. Miller going to get some minutes and Brooks is going to get more than Lowry. Still, it means if they play the right players the right minutes and Yao stays healthy they could be very good. The fewer minutes Miller and Brooks get the better this team will be.
BTW, a best case scenario for the Spurs leads to a similar win total. I’m not going to bet on it for either team though.
July 21st, 2010 at 7:55 pm
Good job by RC.
From my calcs ownership saves $15m total; $7m RJ, $5m luxury tax, $3m cheque for being under luxury tax line.
According to nba.com 4th year is player option. Not sure about this partial guarantee business.
July 21st, 2010 at 8:13 pm
@ JimHenderson
“Can you please take a closer look at Houston. As with us, if healthy, they are a very deep & talented team.Where are you putting finalist Boston, and semi-finalist Orlando? And again, Houston, where are they?” JimHenderson
me earlier: “I remember the magic are still a force to be reckoned with and of course the team I think of as the east cost Spurs the Celtics I think either one of these two could be top in the east . ” I was not really clear here but I was saying I could not decide between orlando or boston as the top pick in the east and the other would be my two pick.
Houston hmmmm idk call me old fashioned I have no faith in them they let me down on a yearly basis and while they do have some nice pieces I am just not convinced I expect them to be in the playoff hunt but not really a threat when the playoffs begin.
@ the who DR.
I will admit I am a Spurs fan and overly biased toward them (the reason why I never ever bet on a Spurs game). First I must say I was being lazy and totally forgot about the Thunder and the fact that we cant stop KD. In your expertly written column(no sarcasm it was very well written good research too) you then go on to say the Mavs are practically the same team (what I stated). That the lakers were the same but with a good backup pg behind fisher (what I stated). I did not go into Denvers problems like the fact that they will start the season without Birdman or Kenyon Martin the only guys that play D on that team.Not to mention unless Melo signs an extension they will have his looming free agency distracting the team all year I love the nuggs but losing there two big guys to start the season is going to hurt them. You on the other hand do not mention this at all.
The Suns *sigh* they were over hyped last year and before anyone says anything I know they swept us I remember. I will also point out the obvious with the loss of Amare they lose size and athleticism as well as a finisher for all thos sick alley oops that nashty makes possible. Hedo is a good fit for the team and I expect his numbers to go back up closer to his orlando days. But and this is important this team is going to be a liability on defense as it always has been no way they can challenge the Lakers no way .
The trailblazers. how many playoff series has this team won in the last decade . Is there a single player on this team with more than 10 playoff wins. In all honest i am kinda bad at keeping up with the blazers. I put them in the same place in my mind as the Rockets and Jazz which is to say they have years where they look really good on paper and can have success in the regular season and generally have well coached teams in terms of defense but for all that what has it gotten them. They are missing something a player that can truly close games maybe like Timmy when he was young or KD now a days.
The Jazz . Same story as rockets and blazers they just don’t do it for me. They need AK-47 to once again be the player we all thought might one day notch a quad dub. Williams is an excellent pg and with Al Jefferson Replacing boozer I dont see a significant drop in talent there but they will need time to become acclimated to one another . They lost kyle korver who was a good threat for them with the long ball. It seems like a step back from last year or at the very least lateral movement.
To sum it up I am just a fan and these are very pedestrian observations. Part of the reason why I asked “Am I wrong to automatically assume that the Lakers and only the Lakers are a serious threat out west ” Was to get a reply from other fans . What I was aiming for and should have said is Does any team in the West ,other than the Lakers, have the ability to beat a MIami,Orlando, or boston team in the east ? I will also defend my every team in the west is weaker foolishness by saying this, with all the moves that the powers in the east made if you did not do something to get better then by virtue of the other teams getting stronger you have now become weaker
. Yeah thats it ……………
July 21st, 2010 at 8:19 pm
On a different note ,got this over at PTR http://www.poundingtherock.com/2010/7/21/1581612/gary-neal-signs-with-spurs#comments
July 21st, 2010 at 8:40 pm
The Spurs addressed a lack of depth at shooting guard by signing Gary Neal to a 3 year guaranteed contract. SGs now comprise half our roster.
July 21st, 2010 at 8:42 pm
@JimHenderson
“Also, it’s not like the Spurs have a stellar playoff record in the past three years: a 2nd, & two 1st round exits. And WE have an AGING CORE, and a number of, for the most part, UNPROVEN young players that as a whole are probably less talented then are the Rocket players age 26 and under. ”
Minor correction 3 years ago 07-08 we got bounced by the lakers in the western finals 08-09 we got dropped first round by mavs 09-10 we lost to phoenix in round 2.
Aging core only Tim and Manu are over thirty out of our “core” . We got Tony under 30 and RJ and bonner at 30 and I think we can all agree that while RJ may become part of our core Matty B is no more than a long tenured role player . We are all about youth now with dejaun, hill, and splitter, 3 young talents that I would not trade away but for a high price. The average age of our team is around 27 . Our three oldest players are timmy at 34 manu at 32 and Mcdyess at 35 . In all honesty I think we are doing pretty ok for a team in rebuilding mode…. what else can you call this what team has the luxury of being in the thick of competition when there roster has been turned around as much as ours the past couple of years.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:00 pm
Wait, the Spurs lowball Splitter and overpay for Jefferson starting at $8.4 million?
What the ….? Watch Jefferson’s contract be the reason Parker demands a max contract from the Spurs.
What a lousy signing by the Spurs.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:05 pm
This thread would be aaaawesome if it contained less mindless speculation about the 2010-11 Rockets and more details about what we know about RJ’s contract terms.
Y’know, since that’s what the post was about.
Is what Hobson mentioned official? Is it good?
July 21st, 2010 at 9:08 pm
doggydogworld
July 21st, 2010 at 8:40 pm
“The Spurs addressed a lack of depth at shooting guard by signing Gary Neal to a 3 year guaranteed contract. SGs now comprise half our roster.”
WTF!?! The Spurs have 3 other players who can hold down the 2 position. Manu, Anderson, and Hill. So this Neal cat comes in and goes 6/10 in one SL game and we sign him to a 3 year deal? I’ve learned better than to question the FO on their decisions and I won’t start now, but this is sure out of the blue (as usual for the Spurs).
I will say that Draft Express has him ranked as the 4th best overseas Free Agent. To me, this seems like another Haislip experiment. Bring a Euro player over cheap and if he doesn’t work out, no big deal. I suppose the FO is looking for a low financial risk, high reward kind of player.
Here is a link to some info on him.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Gary-Neal-544/
July 21st, 2010 at 9:09 pm
lvmainman:
proven ability to at least tread water (despite hype) in the NBA matters a LOT in negotiations. Splitter’s agent knew that. So did RJ’s.
Just look at Darko.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:15 pm
It wasn’t just that one game, he’s one of the best natural shooters I’ve ever watched. This was obvious to me after watching the first game against the Timberwolves. Whether he can do the other stuff and keep his head straight remains to be seen.
I don’t know how we’re going to give minutes to all 7 SGs, though. Hill and Temple will play some PG while Hairston, Gee and Anderson will play some SF, but it’s still a logjam.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:17 pm
Phoebus
July 21st, 2010 at 9:05 pm
“Is what Hobson mentioned official? Is it good?”
Here’s the link. Decide for yourself.
http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/2010/07/its-four-more-y.html#comments
Although I haven’t seen ESPN or Yahoo confirm or deny this report. I hope that its false and the Spurs signed him for less, but I’m afraid it may be true.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:18 pm
@ Jim
” Also, it’s not like the Spurs have a stellar playoff record in the past three years: a 2nd, & two 1st round exits. ”
in 2008 we went to the conference finals. In 2009 we had a first round exit. in 2010 we went to the semifinals. Thats a 3rd, a first, and a second round exit.
@Bduran
“Last year the Spurs produced 54 wins, and we’ve improved. ”
we were 50-32
July 21st, 2010 at 9:22 pm
Dr. Who
July 21st, 2010 at 3:12 pm
I enjoyed your “War and Peace” evaluation of the projected playoff seeds in the West.
Just a few comments on your team evaluations.
I agree with your “sleepers”, the Clippers & Grizzlies. I called them “dark horses” in my post that gave “my WC rankings”, previously on this thread. I also included the Kings, and the Amare-less Suns in this group.
Unfortunately, despite coach Karl’s return to the sidelines, he’s not out of the woods yet with his health. As you might know, cancer can often reappear rather quickly. It’s a notoriously systemic, nasty, and insidious disease. I certainly wish the best for him, but this uncertainty puts the Nuggets at considerable risk again, in my view. Karl is just that important to their fate. In addition, for the most part, Denver has now peaked as a team. Their main players aren’t going to be improving. In other words, they are what they are (4th in the West last year). I’m not too high on the Harrington addition, and K-Mart’s knee situation and age is a huge issue. He’s clearly THE interior defender that the Nuggets must have healthy (along with a suspension of age!) if the Nuggets are going to get into top-tier in the West. I say odds are, the Nuggets end up the same or “slightly” weaker this year.
I agree on OKC. They still have a bunch of young guns, and so I see them getting a bit better. What holds them back from making a bigger move, in my view, is the fact that they have not added any “really good veteran player” to the mix. There’s no substitute for good old fashioned savvy veteran leadership when it counts the most.
Fine points on the Blazers. My disagreement comes with your sarcasm on the Matthews deal (although it was humorous!), and your emphasis on the Pritchard situation. While the Blazers very probably overpaid for Mathews, he is an excellent addition to that team. This guy can play “D” on the perimeter, and nail the three. Plus, from what I understand, he’s ghas a tremendous work ethic, and is a solid character guy. He gives the Blazers the athleticism & toughness in their 4-guard rotation with Roy, Miller, & Bayless. The Pritchard deal was classless & embarrassing, but really, we don’t know all the “true details” of the inside story there. It’s not pretty any way you look at it, but it’s way too early for me to conclude that this is the beginning of a karma-struck trend for the Blazers. At least Allen has made a positive step to redeem the franchise with the hiring of Rich Cho, now “former” assistant GM of the Thunder:
“In Cho, owner Paul Allen may have rebounded from the dysfunction surrounding Pritchard’s departure because he hired a classy, unassuming workaholic who will make well-reasoned decisions.”
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/jerrybrewer/2012398675_brewer20.html
No excuse for the Prichard fiasco, but a good first step nonetheless.
I pretty much agree with your assessment of the Mavs, yet I see them as only slightly better next season at this point. It hinges on whether Chandler can rebound from a series of injuries, and lack-luster production (and STAY healthy), and also on the extent that Beaubois can emerge to give them a spark on the offensive end. Otherwise the core group is aging, and this team has for years always seemed to pick the wrong moment to falter.
Pretty much in agreement again on the Rockets, although you appear to de-emphasize the youth AND talent that they have at key positions. Brooks, for example, has his issues, but he provides one of the toughest & key mismatches for the top teams around the league because he’s lighting quick AND has tremendous range on his three (and 25 years old, heading into his prime). Also, Budinger, Lowery, & Ariza are all very talented, and at age 24 and under, still have considerable upside. Yao, of course, is the key, but you give the impression that going through the year fairly healthy, particularly at the end of the season, is a bigger risk than I would give it. After all, Yao has played in 84% of his games during his 7 seasons prior to last year. He’s FAR from Bill Walton.
We’re in a bit of disagreement about the Jazz. I don’t see AJ replacing Boozer seamlessly during the 1st season. D-Will & Boozer had that pick & roll down pat, and as with Amare & Nash, that won’t be easily replaced. I like Bell, but at age 33, he doesn’t make up for the loss of both Korver (53% from three), and the young, budding stud in Matthews. Hayward is a nice player, but I don’t see him adding more to their team than Patterson, Babbitt, or Anderson, for the Rockets, Blazers, and Spurs, respectively. Sloan will keep the Jazz tough. They should make the playoffs, but I see the Jazz dropping “slightly” (instead of 5th, battling for the final seeds).
On the Spurs, of course, I’ve made my views fairly prominent. I do think that we’ve improved so far, but probably not far enough yet to get into the top tier. EVERYTHING would have to go exceedingly well for us to make a significant move (e.g. WCF appearance). We’re still lacking a veteran, experienced “clutch” three-point shooter, and our “D” has not improved enough through our additions to get us up into the top three to five in defensive rating, which is where the Spurs NEED to get to truly challenge.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:22 pm
Assuming Gary Neal’s contract isn’t huge, I think this is a good move. He’s got some experience against professionals, and during his summer league play he not only shot lights out, but he had very few mistakes, made the right rotations, made few fouls, and had few turnovers. If nothing more, he can come in and hit the 3… which is a need that’s been on this board all off-season. If his defense is as good as it was in the summer league games (obviously that’s a big IF considering the caliber of talent) he’s a decent addition. Even though Gee fits our 3/sf need, I think Neal is strides better now and looks much more NBA ready… in my opinion of course, and from what I saw in all of the summer league games from him.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:32 pm
doggydogworld
July 21st, 2010 at 9:15 pm
“I don’t know how we’re going to give minutes to all 7 SGs, though. Hill and Temple will play some PG while Hairston, Gee and Anderson will play some SF, but it’s still a logjam.”
You got me on this one. I would have to assume that Gee is virtually out of the question at this point. Hairston playing behind RJ seems like a done deal or the Spurs FO wouldn’t have told him not to play in the SL. Hill, Anderson, and Manu are guaranteed and I still believe Temple did enough last year to get him a spot behind Parker and Hill. This would leave Gee as the odd man out don’t you think?
“It wasn’t just that one game, he’s one of the best natural shooters I’ve ever watched.”
I believe you, but his percentages sure weren’t that impressive. Perhaps Pop is looking for an Anthony Morrow kind of player; a young, cheap guy who was overlooked by other teams.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:32 pm
@Hobson
Thanks. I didn’t mean that I questioned you- just whether mysanantonio is a real journalistic establishment. is it the internet arm of the express-news?
and yeah, i think almost everyone would agree that those numbers are about 2 mil higher than what we would have wanted, but at the end of the day, we don’t sign the checks, we’re just the peanut gallery echo chamber.
I care more about how good the Spurs are gonna be next year than what Holt does with his money. Last year it was a salient issue because the Spurs spent a lot, in a not-Spurs way, which got everyone interested.
This year? RJ took a pay cut. A huge one, even by NBA standards. The difference between RJ getting 6 and 8.4 mil a year is a question for Holt to ask himself in his living room.
For us, it’s splittering hairstons.
sorry.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:39 pm
I don’t get it. If the end of the SG bench is Gee, Temple, and Neal, and they’re all signed for super freaking cheap, don’t you allow for the competition to bring the best one forward?
How is that a ‘logjam’?
July 21st, 2010 at 9:47 pm
I think Neal was signed with the MLE. Hopefully not the entire 2.35m remaining, but it’s probably enough to render the MLE useless going forward. Still have the LLE. I also think we’re back into the luxury tax unless we cut two of the Hairston/Gee/Temple/Jerrells gang or convince Anderson to play overseas.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:00 pm
doggydogworld
July 21st, 2010 at 9:47 pm
“I think Neal was signed with the MLE.”
Geez, I hope not. I hope we used the LLE on him. However, someone with extensive cap knowledge refresh my memory. Can’t you only sign a player for one year with the LLE? If thats the case, then we must have used the remainder of the MLE on him.
Here is an interesting article on Gary Neal. I got this from http://blog.shamsports.com/2010/07/2010-summer-league-rosters-san-antonio.html
Here it is:
“Former La Salle and Towson guard Gary Neal is a surprising inclusion on this list, mainly because it’s his first time on such a thing. The 26 year old guard has long had NBA talent, yet this is his first attempt at the NBA in any form. Neal has been playing at the upper echelons of European basketball, spending a year and a half at Benetton Treviso and moving to Euroleague team Unicaja Malaga for the stretch run. (There was a reason for his departure from Benetton, however, one which involves former Pistons guard Alex Acker.) The 6’4 guard is a scoring machine, and led SerieA in points per game last season (19.4) whilst also ranking second in the Eurocup (19.3). He can shoot, drive and create off the bounce, and also chips in with some athleticism and rebounding. But he won’t defend.
Gary Neal fact: Gary Neal was kicked out of La Salle for violating the school’s “morality rules”. Neal and a team mate were “running a train” (not a quote) on a girl who was puking in the sink at a party; the woman later accused them of rape. The two were acquitted, but were kicked out of school; the school believed that what was heard in the court testimony was against their every principle. On the plus side, this gave Neal the opportunity to become only the third player in NCAA history to score at least 1000 points at two different schools. The others were Kenny Battle and Jon Manning.”
Should we begin calling him the “Choo Choo?”
July 21st, 2010 at 10:07 pm
@Hobson, my guess is Neal’s percentages are low because he’s been the #1 scorer who attracts a lot of defensive attention. Kobe is a great shooter but his 33% from the arc and 45% overall doesn’t really stand out.
@Phoebus, it’s a logjam because young players need minutes to develop. I suppose Gee and Temple will get minutes in Austin. Maybe even Anderson?
Man, those guys are going to be killing each other in training camp.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:08 pm
bduran
July 21st, 2010 at 7:44 pm
“Miller I gave a zero, I don’t think a drop at 34 is a fluke.”
Well, you can think that all you want, but it’s not rational. At age 33 in 2008-2009 he had a combined WP of 5.54, having to play with two teams that year no less, and one year later you want to have him a drop to zero because he had an off year with an in-transition Bull team. That’s absurd! Duncan’s now 34, and has a chronic knee injury. Let’s drop his WP from 15.6 to 5 for this coming year. Sound good to you?!
Also, giving Patterson the “rookie average” underestimates his likely rookie contribution. Some rookies are 2nd round picks as well, which on the whole have a lower WP than ist round picks.
“I used Kevin Martins and Yaos best years.”
“I gave Budinger the same wp48 as Martin. I gave Patterson the rookies average.
Yao 32 .215 11.7
Miller 0 0 0
Scola 33 .150 8.46
Patterson 15 .050 1.28
Ariza 36 .081 4.98
Battier 12 .050 1.03
Brooks 36 .049 3.01
Lowry 12 .191 3.92
Total 50.12″
First of all, why and how are you using WP48? How did you arrive at Budinger & Martin’s WP value? HOW are you specifically calculating win totals? Where is Budinger & Martin on this list?! By addition & substitution, it appears that you gave the combined WP value for Budinger & Martin of 15.74. If you’re giving Budinger the same WP value as Martin’s best year, your calculation is off substantially. Martin’s best year was 2007, with a WP value of 11.27. Thus Budinger & Martin should be a combined 22.54. Added to the totals from above (34.38) gives me a total of 56.92, which is pretty close to my 58 win estimate.
You’ll have to be more specific on your calculation method for win totals. I have no idea what you’re doing, or how you’re arriving at your totals.
P.S. By the way, the Rockets would not win more games next year by playing Lowery more than Brooks, and Hill more than Miller. Lets not get carried away with the WP numbers.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:11 pm
@Hobson, LLE and minimum contracts can only be two years. MLE is the only way I can see he got three years guaranteed.
Yeah, Neal’s past is scary. I have to trust that the Spurs did their homework.
July 21st, 2010 at 10:34 pm
Firebrand
July 21st, 2010 at 8:13 pm
“Houston hmmmm idk call me old fashioned I have no faith in them they let me down on a yearly basis and while they do have some nice pieces I am just not convinced I expect them to be in the playoff hunt but not really a threat when the playoffs begin.”
Okay, well, be ready to be surprised.
doggydogworld
July 21st, 2010 at 8:40 pm
“The Spurs addressed a lack of depth at shooting guard by signing Gary Neal to a 3 year guaranteed contract. SGs now comprise half our roster.”
Not adequately addressed. We can’t expect a guy from the development league to come in and solve our 3-point issue, which requires an NBA-tested, clutch-shooting veteran.
Also, I’m not sure who all your 6 SG’s are, but Hairston & Gees skill-set is much better suited for the SF spot (and have enough size & athleticism to handle it). Hill is just as much of a PG as a SG (a combo). Manu, Anderson, & now Neal are the more true SG’s, in my view.
Firebrand
July 21st, 2010 at 8:42 pm
“Minor correction 3 years ago 07-08 we got bounced by the lakers in the western finals…”
That’s right, we played a discombobulated Sun’s team in round one (first year of the Shaq experiment), a “Green” Hornet team that had us dead to rights up 3-2 but choked, and we lost to LA so fast I guess I just forgot about it (5 games)!
Phoebus
July 21st, 2010 at 9:05 pm
“This thread would be aaaawesome if it contained less mindless speculation about the 2010-11 Rockets and more details about what we know about RJ’s contract terms.”
It’s all here, if the “mindful” would take the time to read it.
See the following Hobson post from earlier”
Hobson13
July 21st, 2010 at 6:11 pm
July 21st, 2010 at 10:51 pm
Obviously we have too many wings for the Spur roster of 12-13.
Manu, Anderson, Neal, RJ, Hairston, Gee
And then there’s three other PG/Combo guards.
That’s nine guard/wings, which is too much. That could leave just three front court players on the active roster for a given game.
Obviously at least 2 of the guard/wing players will be spending time in Austin. I would expect it to be two of these three: Anderson, Neal, and/or Gee.
Is there any link to the Neal signing?
July 21st, 2010 at 11:55 pm
If Yao is not sand-bagging here, I might have to back off my prediction of a top-tier playoff seeding for the Rockets. They will make the playoffs though, either way, but if there’s any truth to this article, they should be looking at an additional center for insurance purposes.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/sports/2010-07/22/c_13409563.htm
July 22nd, 2010 at 4:39 am
Add newly signed Gary Neal!!! Neal’s signing,3 years, gives the Spurs the 3 point shooter their looking for. It also looks like Pop is going to go with a full 15 man roster. Signed and delivered are Duncan, Ginobli, Parker, McDyess, Splitter, Blair, Bonner, Jefferson, Hill Neal and I believe that includes Anderson. I make that 11, so Hairston, Temple, Gee, and Anderson could fill out the roster with while Jerrells, Gist and Wilkerson are on the outside looking in. Seven players competing for 4 spots. Looks like a pretty competitive preseason camp.
July 22nd, 2010 at 4:48 am
Firebrand,
“The average age of our team is around 27 . Our three oldest players are timmy at 34 manu at 32 and Mcdyess at 35 .”
Actually Ginobili will be 33 in 6 days. McDyess will be 36 before the season starts.
Jim Henderson,
I agree with your assessment that the Rockets will be one of those dangerous teams next year. Brooks was the most improved, and is easily a top 10 point guard in this league. Will be top 5 in the next couple of years probaably. Martin is a proven scorer. We all know about Scola. Ariza can shoot the 3 and defend exceptionally well for the SF, same thing for Battier. They have Yao back, and then they have Budinger off the bench(this guy is a steal, he went in the second round) and the man shoots lights out! And finally Brad Miller off the bench as an insurance/back-up center, a nice piece and someone who is already familiar with Adelman’s schemes. They will def be better than last year, and I expect them to at least make the playoffs this year.
I am skeptical about exactly how dangerous they will be. Yao broke his foot against LA in the playoffs in 09, and hasnt sen court time since. The situation is kinda similar to Ginobili’s…in the sense that Yao is going to need almost a full season to try and get back to top form, barring that he gets injured again. So you can’t assume he’s gonna come back 100% and help this team win 50+ games…We expected that with Ginobili last year, and for the first 3 quarters of the season and it didnt happen.
Sidenote: I don’t see the Spurs being much better than they were last year. Our team is pretty much the same(except Splitter), the celing for this team, as currently constructed in my view, is another 2nd round playoff exit
July 22nd, 2010 at 5:36 am
“That’s absurd! Duncan’s now 34, and has a chronic knee injury. Let’s drop his WP from 15.6 to 5 for this coming year. Sound good to you?!”
Despite Duncan’s health problems he’s always been a top producer. What’s absurd is comparing Duncan and Miller. Maybe Miller will rebound somewhat, but at his age I just wouldn’t expect much. You’ve always been quick to point out decline with age. Now that it doesn’t suit your argument you argue that because TD can do it, so can Miller?
“First of all, why and how are you using WP48?”
I’m using WP48 times minutes to get WP. Budinger and Martin play the same position so they can’t combine for 22 wins. Using WP48 times minutes makes it easier to figure out minutes.
“Where is Budinger & Martin on this list?!”
Oops left them off, but as you noticed they ar3 in the total with 48 mintues combined at a WP48 of .192.
“I have no idea what you’re doing, or how you’re arriving at your totals”
WP = wp48*(min/48)*games (I assumed 82 games)
http://www.permanent-sketch.com/WinsProduced/Main.html
This is the linke for where I get wp48.
July 22nd, 2010 at 6:07 am
2 things.
1) “Splittering Hairstons” is hilarious and this is the perfect audience for it. Sorry I’m on my blackberry so I don’t know who wrote it several posts back, but props.
2) Jim Henderson - I often enjoy your very astute and sharp analysis (easily some of the best on the board)yet agree that sometimes you come off a bit condesending. The bit of sugar you have in your last few posts have made them quite a bit more palatable and have made a big difference for me.
July 22nd, 2010 at 6:51 am
@ jim
I’ll believe it when I see it. I think the Rockets finish somewhere around 6th in the West, but I dont see how they overcome LA.
Care to enlighten me?”
My apologies, never intended for that to be “jabbish” in any way. we dont have the benefit of seeing body language or hearing tone.
July 22nd, 2010 at 7:21 am
Jim,
Sorry for all the mistakes in that post, had to type it in a hurry.
“By the way, the Rockets would not win more games next year by playing Lowery more than Brooks, and Hill more than Miller”
Why don’t you think Hill is better than Miller? He’s YOUNG and ATHLETIC. Anyway, he was better than Miller last year.
One of the reasons I don’t expect much from Miller this year is his poor rebounding rate. Maybe his shooting % comes back up somewhat, but I bet his rebounding stays low. Hill showed a lot of promise, I’d give him as many minutes as possible behind Yao and save Miller as insurance incase Yao goes down.
July 22nd, 2010 at 8:30 am
@ Jim H.
Had fun writing War and Peace and you could tell I was thoroughly bored. I’ll defend some of my assessment, but that’s all it is (my assessment). I hear a lot about playoff teams that have peaked, had their run and shouldn’t be as good next year even with the moves they’ve made. I guess people living outside of San Antonio probably think the same about us with our aging stars, getting bounced in the first round for the first time since the Reagan administration (yes exaggerating) and then getting swept in the playoffs the following year. I was mostly trying to look at offseason moves and where teams stand. I should have given them letter grades in retrospect. Looks like we agree on most points, you’re right about Karl. Cancer is absolutely nasty and could strike back again. It was amazing how much that team tailed off last year when Karl was out. That could happen again this year. I don’t think they’ll be a much worse team if Karl is there a full season. True you worry about age and injuries but every team does aside from the Blazers, I mean… Really we are worried about how Manu will hold up, if Timmy’s knees hold up. Kobe showed signs of aging/injury and although the Lakers will be competitive should the “24hrs Rapist” go down they are not the juggernaut that we all love to hate. We do disagree on Mathews value, then again we just paid RJ how much????? Chandler’s health and Roddy’s play will be key for the Mavs along with player development. They should be a strong team. I touched on this though, I don’t think Carlisle is a strong enough coach to lead them to the promised land. I really don’t want to say anything about the Rockets because this thread has become a Rockettes fan Shangri-La, but yes you found the post that everyone has been talking about here in Houston in regards to the comments Yao made about his play in a contract year no less (AFAIK). The other thing is that you keep mentioning he’s played in 84% of his games. I live in Houston and the subject of Yao’s health comes up as often as us complaining that it’s hot as #@^* outside. The number I keep hearing on talk radio is that he’s missed 42% of his game in the last 5 years (maybe it was 4). But, I’ve been hearing that number of several occasions. Not saying it’s right because I haven’t done the research, but that is the number they keep throwing up on talk radio. And yes being in this town, not many put the faith of their entire season on a healthy Yao. However… they are a very young and talented team. They share something similar to the Spurs, they don’t really care how they get there but they want to be in the playoffs with their “Big Buy” healthy. Without Yao I’m not sure they get in since I don’t think there’s a huge fall off in the former playoff teams besides the Suns. With their current roster, they could make it but it will be a tough road and they’ll most likely be a lower seed (without Yao that is). I can see your point with the Jazz, what I’m assuming here is that since Jefferson isn’t a R&R guy that he will man the low post in a different roll that what Boozer was used in. Milsap runs the P&R very well. If they’re on the court at the same time it could be zero fun trying to guard the P&R while worrying about Jefferson’s low post game. Depends if Sloan insists he turn into Boozer Jr. If he does that I agree it will take a while for the team to gel. This is a team I can actually see getting better if they incorporate Jefferson’s skill set. Korver is a big loss that Bell doesn’t totally fill but I think if he’s smart with the use of Jefferson that could create some interesting problems for opposing defenses. Totally agree on the Spurs, we’ve upgraded but probably not enough. Can’t fault the FO for it though, they did what they could with what they had. However, we paid RJ how much???
July 22nd, 2010 at 11:46 am
Bentley
July 22nd, 2010 at 4:48 am
Nice post. Pretty much agree with most everything you said.
bduran
July 22nd, 2010 at 5:36 am
“Despite Duncan’s health problems he’s always been a top producer. What’s absurd is comparing Duncan and Miller.”
But I’m not comparing “Duncan & Miller!” That said, Miller has been a solid, professional, and a pretty consistent NBA center for a decade. Dropping Miller’s WP from an average of like 6-7 over the last several years to ZERO is about as realistic as dropping Duncan’s from 15 to 6. I can see dropping Miller’s WP, with probably reduced minutes, down to about 2, but ZERO? That is absurd. I’ll bet you anything that Miller’s WP this year does not end up being ZERO or NEGATIVE.
The rest of it you’re just not being clear enough on EXACTLY how you’re calculating everything to get to 50.12 wins, let alone the rationale for doing so.
The easiest way to do it is to look at the average WP from the players that were added, make an adjustment for players that were lost, and add the difference to the win total from last year. That’s what I did, and came up with about 58 wins, assuming all players are reasonably healthy throughout the year (which may be more of an “if” than I thought on Yao?!). Apparently it’s possible for it to take over a year & a half to fully recover from a broken foot. We’ll see.
See earlier post on Yao’s condition, if you haven’t already:
Jim Henderson
July 21st, 2010 at 11:55 pm
Jacob
July 22nd, 2010 at 6:51 am
“My apologies, never intended for that to be “jabbish” in any way. we dont have the benefit of seeing body language or hearing tone.”
No problem. That’s cool. I don’t mind posts with an edge to them. Of course, the “edge” might come back in return! But it’s all good in good fun, and as long as commentator’s stay away from personal insults, all’s good.
bduran
July 22nd, 2010 at 7:21 am
“Sorry for all the mistakes in that post, had to type it in a hurry.”
No problem, I understand.
“Why don’t you think Hill is better than Miller? He’s YOUNG and ATHLETIC. Anyway, he was better than Miller last year.”
Miller, despite the off year, is still a proven professional with a fairly versatile skill-set for a big man. Hill does have some potential, but is still quite raw. I’d rather go to war with Miller for the next couple of years. After that, Hill might be my man.
“Maybe his shooting % comes back up somewhat, but I bet his rebounding stays low.”
Perhaps, but he’s also one of the best passing big men out of the high post.
July 22nd, 2010 at 2:01 pm
” Dropping Miller’s WP from an average of like 6-7 over the last several years to ZERO is about as realistic as dropping Duncan’s from 15 to 6. ”
The major difference being that Miller actually had a year last year with a negative WP (and the year before he was only average in WP48 with 3 WP) and Duncan’s always had great years by this metric. Look you may be right that he rebounds, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say a 34 year old follows two years of decline with more of the same.. If his body is failing him, there’s nothing he can do about it. I could be wrong, but my reasoning is far from “absurd”. We can disagree on assumptions and if you want to add some wins to your estimate then fine. i’m just explaining mine.
“The rest of it you’re just not being clear enough on EXACTLY how you’re calculating everything to get to 50.12 wins, let alone the rationale for doing so”
Sorry if I’m not being clear. Let me know if this explanantion makes sense.
I listed 3 numbers for every player. Expected minutes, wp48 and then I used the formula WP = wp48*(min/48)*games (for which I assumed 82) to get the last number. I forgot to add in the SG position. I used .192 for both Budinger and Martin giving them 48 minutes at .192 for a WP of 15.7. Then I summed up all the WP to get 50.
“The easiest way to do it is to look at the average WP from the players that were added, make an adjustment for players that were lost, and add the difference to the win total from last year”
The problem with this is minutes. For example in all the years you cite Brad Miller producing 5 or 6 wins he’s playing about 30 minutes a game. With Yao in the lineup he’s not going to get as many minutes as he used to. So even without a decline in per minute production he’s going see a drop in WP. So if he does something like 15 minutes a game for 70 games (he’s missed a lot of games over his career) at a WP48 of .050 he’ll produce about 1 win.
Another example is Budinger and Martin. Two of Houston’s better players from a WP48 perspective but they play the same position so they share the same 48 minute slot. Now I suspect that one of them will get some time at 3 spot, but with Battier and Ariza on the roster I don’t think it’ll be much.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:07 pm
bduran
July 22nd, 2010 at 2:01 pm
“The problem with this is minutes.”
Okay, I’ll essentially use your method, with some modifications.
First of all, one important assumption needs to be made. To do otherwise would make it too burdensome for me.
— Only the top ten players are used to calculate wins. It will be assumed that all these players play in all 82 games, and nobody else on the team plays (while this will obviously not end up being true, it’s close enough for our purposes, especially IF the Rockets stay pretty healthy - for example, Patterson will obviously get some minutes, but it’s difficult to project how many - by any account, he is unlikely to see more than a very small fraction of the total team minutes throughout the year - it is likely that the Rockets will give Hill more of a chance this year).
WP48′s are used in the win calculations for all of the top ten players. The base WP48 number is arrived at by the player’s AVERAGE WP48 over the past 5 years or less (e.g., depending how long he’s been in the league - thus, for Lowry & Budinger, just last years WP48). Minutes allocated for each player is a simply a reasonable estimate based on the depth of talent that this team has.
Top-Ten players in order of average WP48:
……….Minutes….minute adj. avg. WP48…Wins
Yao - …….30 ………..30/48 x .23 x 82……..11.78
Lowry - ….18 …………………… .19 …………….5.84
Scola - …..30 …………………… .17 ……………..8.71
Ariza - ……28 ………………….. .16 ……………..7.65
Budinger- 18 …………………… .15 ……………..4.61
Martin - …30 ………………….. .14 ……………..7.18
Hill - ……..18 …………………… .12 ……………..3.69
Miller - ….18 …………………… .10 ……………..3.07
Battier - …20 ………………….. .07 …………….2.39
Brooks - ..30 …………………… .05 …………… 2.56
Total - ……………………………………………….57.48
If you want, you can play with it in terms of projected games lost by some of the more notables (e.g., Yao). But if Yao goes out for “X” amount of games, just plug in the extra minutes for his likely replacements (i.e., Miller, Scola, Hill). But use the same WP48 averages I used. Generally speaking, it’s the fairest way to look at it.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:46 pm
IM A DIE HARD SPURS FAN IM 27 YRS OLD AND IVE NEVER PULLED FOR ANOTHER TEAM US BRINGING BACK RJ WAS A GREAT MOVE HE STARTED TO FILL IT IN THE PLAYOFFS NOW THT ROGER MASON AND BOGANS ARE GONE WE DO SOME THINGS THOSE GUYS DID NOTHING FOR OUR TEAM SORRY TO SAY AND IF MR SPLITTER IS AS GOOD AS THEY SAY SOME OF THE PRESSURE IS TAKEN OFF OF TIM DUNCAN MATT BONNER NEEDS TO STEP UP OR SHIP HIS BEHIND OUT OF THERE TONY PARKER MANU GINOBLI BACK AN HEALTHY POINTS FOR SURE GEORGE HILL WILL HAVE TO STEP UP AND BE CONSISTANT WE STILL SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN SHAQ HE FITS IN OUR SYSTEM AND HE WOULD HAVE CLOGGED THE MIDDLE AND ADDED SOME SHOT BLOCKING BUT ALL IN ALL WE DO HAVE A CHAMPIONSHIP CALIBER TEAM IF MANU WOULDNT HAVE BROKEN HIS NOSE AND TONY COMING BACK A LIL RUSTY WE WOULD HAVE SCRAPPED THOSE WHACK A** SUNS IF U LOOK AT IT WE BACK BEHIND LA
July 23rd, 2010 at 5:31 am
Jim,
“But use the same WP48 averages I used. Generally speaking, it’s the fairest way to look at it.”
I wouldn’t use those averages because I don’t think that this true. I think it inflates Yao’s numbers since he his WP48 of .280 in ’05-’06 was by far his highest. The next three years he was .23 and under, which is what you used for his average. And after two years of decline I expect Miller to be below average. I’m fine with you using them. These are just projections after all. I generally prefer last 3 years.
Also, you didn’t use Brooks last 3 years. I’m fine with this since he’s young. In general I would probably through out a players first year or two from his average. Just though I’d note it.
Lik I said earlier, when I started discussing the rockets I hadn’t really looked at Hill. If he lives up to his promise I think this could be a 54-55 win team. If you’re right and Miller rebounds then your estimate is probably right.
July 23rd, 2010 at 7:24 am
I watched some of the Rockets/Mavs summer league game and Omar Samhan simply owned Jordan Hill at both ends. But Omar is headed to Lithuania, leaving Hill free to excel against seasoned western conference bigs.
Allocating all minutes to the top 10 players biases the result slightly high. During a season players #11-15 might contribute 10% or so of the minutes despite zero or even negative WP48. I’d multiply the 57.48 by 0.9 as a crude adjustment to yield 52 projected wins.
July 23rd, 2010 at 7:40 am
doggy,
“I watched some of the Rockets/Mavs summer league game and Omar Samhan simply owned Jordan Hill at both ends.”
Hmm, well we could use your evluation of watching Hill in “some” of a summer league game. Or we could use over 600 minutes of NBA playing time his rookie year to evaluate him. Considering the facts that he averaged almost four boards and 50% shooting on 13.3 minutes a game and that he improved on these numbers with the Rockets towards the end of the season, I think he’s a pretty good prospect.
10% of minutes works out to about 24 minutes a game on average. I think the players outside the top ten would average less. Also, some of those minutes will go to Patterson and the rookie average is .05, and of course their are players like Ian last year who have high WP48 in limited minutes. Come in for five minutes and score one baket and grab two boards and you will be very productive per minute.
In general I would guess the very end of the roster to not have much of an effect on wins.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:26 am
bduran
July 23rd, 2010 at 5:31 am
If you used Yao’s last 3 years, his average WP48 was .21 instead of the .23 that I used. That would subtract 1 win from the total.
Miller has not had 2 years of decline. It was just last year (the anomaly). His WP48 was .16 for both 2008 & 2009. Averaging his WP48 over just 3 years puts too much emphasis on the one bad year. The Rockets FO/coach are too smart to pay Miller 5 mil. per year if they thought he was washed up and likely to repeat last years performance.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:45 am
doggydogworld
July 23rd, 2010 at 7:24 am
Yeah, 10% of the total minutes is generally too high for the players below the bottom ten. For example, for the Spurs last year, the minutes for players below the top ten were just 6.7 % of the total minutes. Also, with your calculation of a .9 multiplier, you’re in effect saying that all of the players minutes below the top-ten are going to average a zero WP48, which as bduran points out, is unlikely. I would say it’s more reasonable to conclude that the below top-ten players’ would be about half as productive as the top-ten players during their relatively small amount of playing time on the floor. So if we used a .93 multiplier, and then added back in half of the wins that we took out, that could give us a better picture. Thus, .93 x 57.62 = 53.59, which means we took out about 4 wins; add back in 2 wins, gives us about 55-56 wins. Of course, all of this depends on whether the great majority of the Rocket’s most productive WP48 guys can stay healthy pretty much all season.
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:12 pm
“His WP48 was .16 for both 2008 & 2009. ”
Actually, we were both wrong. In 2009 I think you were just looked at his Chicago WP48 and I just looked at his Sacrament which was .104. If you combine the two to get his entire season WP48 it is .122. So this is still a decline, but not as much as I had thought.
Anyway, I’m thinking low 50s and now it looks like you’re thinking mid 50s. Not exactly a world of difference. I can’t wait for the season to start.
July 27th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
He’d better be productive this season
otherwise what a waste of money this will be
August 16th, 2010 at 4:10 am
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