Tuesday, August 10th, 2010...11:37 am
San Antonio Spurs 2010-11 schedule under the magnifying glass
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The San Antonio Spurs 2010-2011 regular season schedule was released on Tuesday. In what could be the last year (or is that next year?) that the Spurs compete for an NBA title, we take a look at the schedule and see what lies ahead for the silver and black from late October to mid-April.
- San Antonio’s first game of the season is October 27 at home against the Indiana Pacers.
- In December, 11 of the Spurs’ 15 games are at the AT&T Center.
- Jeff McDonald of the Express-News tweeted that the Spurs will be on national TV 22 times next season.
- The Rodeo Road Trip runs nine games from February 1 through 17. The Spurs play Portland, the Lakers, Sacramento, Detroit, Toronto, Philadelphia, Washington, New Jersey and Chicago on the trip. Absent is the usual combination of two straight games in the Staples Center against the Lakers and Clippers. In fact, the Spurs don’t do that two step at all this season. But there are three back-to-back sets on the RRT.
- All-Star Weekend is February 18-20. Will Tim Duncan continue his streak? Will Tony Parker join him? Tiago Splitter vs. DeJuan Blair in the Rookie-Sophomore game? (Yes, please. To all.)
- The heir-to-the-throne Miami Heat make their only regular season visit to the AT&T Center on Friday, March 4. The Lakers make one of their two appearances a couple days later on Sunday, March 6.
- The Spurs play 29 of their 50 games in 2011 on the road (because of the Rodeo Road Trip).
- The silver and black play 18 back-to-backs in 2010-2011. Seven of those are in March and April. Ugh.
- The Spurs’ hardest stretch of games may be the eight game slate from March 23 to April 5. San Antonio plays Denver, Portland, Memphis, Portland again, Boston, Houston, Phoenix and Atlanta. There are two-and-a-half back-to-backs in that stretch (the Atlanta game is the first of another back-to-back) and those teams were a combined 392-264 last season. That span of games may determine where San Antonio ends up in the Western Conference standings.
86 Comments
August 10th, 2010 at 11:40 am
How many wins can we get before losing the first game?
Go Spurs Go!!
August 10th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
First impressions:
- October 27th can’t come soon enough.
- The RRT seems pretty tame - only 3 of the 9 made the playoffs last year.
- I think the schedule shapes up nicely for two reasons:
(1) I like being on the road more often than not in the first 2/3 of the season because it forces the guys to hang out together, which should help us “gel” and get more familiar with Tiago Anderson, Neal, etc. Also, rest at the end of the season is critical for our older guys. I’d much rather be at home right before the playoffs rather than on the road.
(2) Our toughest stretch of games comes after the All-Star break, when we should be playing our best ball - as opposed to the beginning of the season when we’re still learning as a group. And if this stretch does determine where we stand in the West going into the playoffs, I’d rather hash that out when we’re playing well.
August 10th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
Looks like 8 wouldn’t be a reach (OKC on the road). But it could also be 0, never know.
August 10th, 2010 at 12:25 pm
12 wins…
1st loss against Orlando on November 22. We destroy Dallas on the 26th. November 3 and 14 (OKC) are the games to watch. We play PHX on 3rd. Its time for some retribution.
August 10th, 2010 at 12:32 pm
@ITGUY
I am going to say 7. We have basically the same main core as last year, except our role players are better, and our defense has been shored up by none other than the Bad-ass Brazillian Baller Tiago Splitter.
I see Houston and OKC as the only tough games to start the season. (We played OKC on November 14th last year in SA, I had tickets, was driving to the game from Houston, and blew the transmission in my car. BAD MOJO for us and the Thunder on 11-14.)
John Hollinger@ESPN has us ranked 6th in the west, with us only winning 48 games this year. If everyone can stay healthy I dont see any reason why we cant win 54+ games. Our interior defense imporved with the addition of Splitter and with a healthy Manu and Tony (these two were only healthy half the year at opposite times) I dont see how we can do any worse than last year. I do, however, see a lot of room for imporvement. Neal and Anderson HAVE to be better shooters than Bogans and Mason were last year. With improved defense and scoring from Grizzly Blair, and a confident George Hill, I see this team making serious waves once we settle on a starting line up.
POP - PLEASE DONT WAIT ALL SEASON BEFORE DECIDING!!!
I see our starters with these numbers:
Timmy - 28 minutes - 16/10
Splitter - 30 minutes - 12/6
Jefferson - 34 minutes - 12/5
Ginobili - 30 minutes - 16/5 ast
Parker - 33 minutes - 22/6.5 ast
I see our bench like this
6. George - 34 minutes - 12/4ast
7. DeJuan - 25 minutes - 10/10
8. Anderson - 14 minutes - 6/3ast
The rest of the role players i believe will be used situationally…(trash time, breathers, scoring drought)
August 10th, 2010 at 12:35 pm
P.S. Sorry for the long post.
I would love to see Splitter get 40+ minutes to have a chance at Rookie of the year… That would make my year.
August 10th, 2010 at 12:40 pm
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August 10th, 2010 at 1:00 pm
@ Diehard
I generally agree. I think this team is better on paper than last year and still better than Houston and Dallas. I see us going 53-29, winning the division and ending up with the 3rd seed.
August 10th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
@ Tyler -
I believe we solidified that we were a better team than the Mavericks.
I can think of roughly 12-15 games where all we needed was someone to knock down the open shot to win the game. We have (hopefully) corrected this issue with the hiring of sharp shooters. How many times were opposing teams doing lay-up drills against us after drawing Timmy away from the paint? We now have a young, athletic 7 footer that has a chance at 20+ minutes a game. This stops the lay-ups.
Having someone knock down the open jumper and someone block up the paint to defend lay-ups will do wonders for our point differential as well as 2-5 more wins per regular season.
We all know that we only had a half of a Manu and a half of Tony… we had 50 wins with only half of them…!!! Tony will come out HELL BENT on getting a max contract, and I can garuntee that Manu will not be as rusty as he was the first half of last year. From what they were lacking last year to what they will produce this year, it is almost like having what we had last year, plus another star… if that makes sense.
I am sure ready for season to start!!!!!
August 10th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Does anyone think that they can win 60 games, or more this season? I think they can, though, everyone will have to do there job. I can see us beating out the Lakers for the #1 seed in the West. However, if that doesn’t happen, I think they will beat them in the Western Conference Finals, to advance to the NBA Finals, where they will either face the Celtics, or the Magic. Possibly the Heat, but I doubt that. There are too many BIG EGOS on the team. (I.E. LeBron James. And when I say there are too many egos, i meant Lebron’s makes up for five guys.)
August 10th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Am I the only one who thinks the Spurs are peripheral contenders at very best?
To contend we need Duncan to improve, not to 2003 levels (where he was phenomenal, just rewatched Game 6 against the Lakers
), but he does need to raise his game; we can’t have him petering out after an initial 2 months of beastliness - and the likelihood is he will probably decline again this year.
Also, we need Manu to kill it and I don’t think he can replicate that golden month’s form over a whole season.
And am I the only one pessimistic about Tiago? He’s a rookie. I think over the course of a 100 + game season he’s going to hit the rookie wall and see a marked fall in production. Plus, there’s no reason to expect him to fit right in.
August 10th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
I agree with much of what you say, Mr. Anonymous. If the Spurs stay healthy, though, I think they have what it takes to mount a challenge against the Lakers. So much depends on health, though, and whether Splitter hits the ground running.
August 10th, 2010 at 2:41 pm
Duncan’s average PER for his career is 25. His PER last season was 24.7. He may have a drop-off but, it shouldn’t be to much of one.
Tony will be fully healthy at age 29 with a max contract to play for.
Manu is Manu.
Tiago “should” gel well, the Spurs have done their homework on the kid and he seems to fit their mold.
Blair is more experienced, as is Hill. I really have no idea what we can expect from Neal and Anderson but, like DieHardSpur said, they have to be better than Bogans/Hurt Mason.
Bonner will still drive that Accord or whatever it is he rolls in.
52+ win team IMO.
August 10th, 2010 at 2:44 pm
I have read three different articles on the schedule that break it down in micro format so far.
All are from a league wide perspective and all absolutely pay no attention to the Spurs.
With the entire Miami Circus the new rookies, Lakers, OKC etc we are not even considered by most pundits.
I love that….I think we can be the team that kills Christmas.
August 10th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
“In December, 11 of the Spurs’ 15 games are at the AT&T Center.”
This stretch of the season will be critical. Last year, the Spurs got off to a 9-9 start even though we played only 5 road games in that span. This subpar record put the Spurs behind the 8-ball for the rest of the year. If the Spurs had only won a few more of those games, they would have possibly been second seed and had the first two series’ at home.
This year it is imperative that we get off to a great start. Our young players (esp. Hill, Blair, and Splitter) need both experience and confidence going into the grinding last half of the season. Looking at the October and November schedule, there are about 10 games where we play sub .500 teams (at least by last years record) plus another 4 teams that have had serious personnel changes this summer. This would be an excellent time for the young guns (Blair, Splitter, Temple, Anderson, and to a lesser extent Hill) to really show their stuff. I really hope Pop plays these guys early in the season. We really need at least 3 of them to take large steps forward if this team is to be a serious threat to the Lakers.
On a more upbeat note, I do expect us to get off to a much better start this year. I see Jefferson playing much better with Hill and Blair able to step in where they left off last year. Those are 3 major pieces at 3 different positions and all have more valuable experience under their belts. Plus Parker should be healthy, Duncan rested, and Manu reapplying his mojo he found late last season. This will be a fun year for us!
August 10th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
Spurs will win 50+ again (!) and tie NBA record (and keep ahead of Mavs)!!!!!!!!!!!
August 10th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
Stephen
August 10th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
“Does anyone think that they can win 60 games, or more this season? I think they can, though, everyone will have to do there job.”
I wouldn’t be surprised if NO ONE won 60 in the west. Even last year, when the “experts” were crowing that the Lakers would win 65+, they only won 57. The conference is just too stacked from the 2-8 spot in the west (and the 9-10 positions may be .500).
With this said, this team reminds me of the 2003 Spurs with a young Jackson, Manu, and Parker. No one gave those cats any respect going into the season, but they ended up being a juggernaught by May. I really think we have the potential to surprise some people this year.
BTW, Hollingers rankings which showed the Spurs 6th in the West is total B.S. There’s no way you can put the Mavs and Nuggets ahead of the Spurs this year. If people think we are old, they need look no farther than the Mavs to see a group of has-beens. Perhaps the Thunder and the Blazers will finally live up to their potential, but they are far from proven commodities.
August 10th, 2010 at 3:45 pm
I’ve never believed the schedule has much to do with the Spurs winning or losing during the regular season except for the amount and when their back to backs are placed on that schedule.
Again this year…almost two thirds of their BTB’s fall in the last 3 months of the regular season with a third of them in the last 15 games of the season.
That’s brutal.
August 10th, 2010 at 3:56 pm
8-0 should be the start of the season for the Spurs, 6-2 at least. Any worse than that, I’ll will be extremely disappointed.
But, competing for a championship based on unknowns like Splitter, Neal, Anderson as role players? We’ll see.
Go Spurs Go.
August 10th, 2010 at 4:25 pm
Go Spurs Go!!
August 10th, 2010 at 4:35 pm
Pop will not give that many minutes to rookies Splitter or Anderson. Lets see, Lineup Tinkering until December. before AllStar break, Rj makes more excuses and in March states Hill is his favorite person to play with. pop rests all the starters in both games of a back to back in March. The entire team will miss to attend McDyess’ funeral. he will die of natural causes in April. bonner will make a decent sandwichs for the reception.
This team wont see 5 wins in a row. Dallas, Lakers, Blazers are simply better. The Suns made Amare more than he made them. Thunder are a trade away from a division title. Spurs will make it to 50, but if they make it out of the first round it will be a small miracle.
August 10th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
im going to bet we are going to start 4-4. the spurs just cant have a good start to a season. is just against the laws of physics
August 10th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
Spurs are going to fly out the gate this year. I’m gonna go for a 10 and 4/5 start. Timmy will breathe easier this year. Fingers crossed no injuries….54 wins, big chance to make wcf
August 10th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
Mr. Anonymous
August 10th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
“Am I the only one who thinks the Spurs are peripheral contenders at very best?”
You’re certainly not alone.
I didn’t look at Hollinger’s ranking, but as it stands now, I have us ranked 5th in the West, but we should hit 50+ wins again, but get probably no more than 53-54.
We have too many unanswered questions still (RJ, Splitter, Blair, Anderson, Temple, Neal), and in my view many on here are still underestimating the improvement of other teams in the West.
We should be better, but it’s still unclear how much better, in relation to our competition, and improvement defensively is a HUGE key for us. Unfortunately, I think our “D” is still suspect, both on the interior and out on the perimeter.
We could still use a proven veteran shooter or lock-down defender out on the perimeter, and another shot-blocker inside. Otherwise we’re a long-shot for a WCF appearance.
August 10th, 2010 at 6:23 pm
There’s a magnifying glass in the picture…
very good
August 10th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
My prediction is 54-28 and 4th seed in the west.
August 10th, 2010 at 7:58 pm
blah blah i make crap predictions. we suck we rule.
we have one of the easier schedules, as 18 b2bs is pretty favorable. you hate to have 14 of those come on the road, but overall it’s more positive.
lakers certianly got the champs’ treatment with the schedule. lots of rest and the least b2bs.
can’t wait until oct 27th
August 10th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
The Spurs already gonna have 18 losses, since that’s the amount of B2b’s they have. The Spurs can realistically reach 50 wins and some. I say keep the Big 3 on the bench until March.
GSG.
August 10th, 2010 at 8:34 pm
I don’t expect a good start from the spurs… always (except last year) spurs starts rolling after the all stars week end.
Hollinger’s ranking is not only based on teams power or players, but also on teams age… i expect the spurs to have a “bad” last month before playoffs… this will be due to significant minutes decrease for TD, Manu, Mc D and possibly TP (just like Boston last year)…
Spurs cannot play for home court adv this year, simply they cannot rely on the young guys like Neal, Anderson, temple or even Tiago in their 1st year and 1st playoffs to get them a championship…
So i expect a normal season from Spurs, with around 48 to max 50 wins, but things will change in playoffs.. it’s very important that the team gel and the starting line will be decided early this season..
August 10th, 2010 at 9:24 pm
Jim Henderson
August 10th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
“We have too many unanswered questions still (RJ, Splitter, Blair, Anderson, Temple, Neal), and in my view many on here are still underestimating the improvement of other teams in the West.”
I agree that there are many unknowns for the Spurs this year. In fact, for an organization that has enjoyed success with relative roster stability, this will be a different team from last year and a VASTLY different team from just 2 years ago.
However, I simply don’t agree that the West has improved that much. There has simply been too much roster turnover at key positions with teams such as the Jazz and the Suns for them to instantly gell. These teams will take some time to reach their potential, whatever that may be.
I lost some respect for Hollinger in his latest ranking of the West. There’s simply no excuse (outside of being a bandwagon reporter) to put the Thunder second behind only the Lakers. Sure they are young, promising, and very talented. They have also proven nothing. Zilch. For those who have watched basketball for a while, how many teams with “potential” have fallen by the wayside? Tons. Let’s not forget that they finished 8th in the west last year with the weakest conference record of the top 8 and a point differential (arguably a better indicator) that was 6th out of the top 8. Much has been made regarding how well they played the Lakers in the first round. However, let’s not forget that the Lakers lost 7 of their final 11 regular season games and at the time were looking supremely vulnerable. After they warmed up and got serious against the Thunder, they became a buzz saw. The Thunder will be good, but will they be 2nd in the West?? Not unless multiple young players (who are untested and have limited potential) take large strides this season.
The Blazers are much the same except they’ve disappointed us for the past 2-3 years with both their inability to win playoff series’ or stay healthy. How many more mulligans do they get? When do they quit being referred to as the “up-and-coming” team and become the “had potential, but…” team?
For Utah, I’m not convinced that Al Jefferson is THAT much of an upgrade over Boozer if an upgrade at all. Yes, Jefferson was a 20/10 guy (before his knee blew out) on bad clubs, but Boozer averaged 19/11 last year on a decent Jazz team. How’s this a big upgrade? However, as bad as many believe Boozer’s defense was, rest assured that Jefferson’s is even worse. I’ve often wondered how a front line anchored around Jefferson and Mehmet Okur will defend. Neither are great defenders, elite athletes, or good shot blockers. Perhaps it will all come together for the Jazz later on in the season, but with the loss of 3 of their top 8, they will lose some corporate knowledge as well.
With the Suns, I have no idea what the hell they will look like. They could look like Frankenstein or Gisele. Too many losses and additions to know what and who they really are. What does Turkoglu look like in place of Amare? If you think Amare couldn’t get defensive rebounds, you’re in for an offensive rebounding treat with Hedo and Hakim. What about Josh Childress and Warrick? How do they fit in? We’ll just have to see I guess.
Mavs: Didn’t we just beat them in 6 games a few months ago? They are an aging team with Terry, Marion, and Kidd (3 of their top 6) all WELL past their prime. Mark Cuban has wheeled and dealed with his roster for a long time. Now he’s stuck with an aging roster that, I believe, has no identity outside of Dirk. Why in the hell does Hollinger think they are the third best team in the West?
Nuggets: They peaked two years ago in the WCF against the Lakers. This team has never had the discipline to play team ball on the offensive end nor the focus to buckle down and play excellent team defense. They have the talent and almost became formidable when they figured these things out in the playoffs two years ago, but have regressed since then. They are the classic example of how great individuals don’t always make great teams. At this point, they are what they are if Karl doesn’t come back and take control.
Sorry for the novel, but those are my feelings for the west. The West stayed the same and the East got better. Bottom line: I don’t know who will be 2-8 seed, but the Spurs will have their chance to be near the top as long as they are healthy.
August 10th, 2010 at 10:46 pm
If you guys don’t know Pop by now, and I’m sure you do, then you should expect this:
1- heavy minutes for Duncan in the beginning of the season (over 40 minutes in some meaningless games).
2- Bonner playing as much or more than Tiago.
3- Waiting and relying on Manu to unleash his SuperManu too early when we could be giving the new shooters the chance early to showcase their talents and improve their confidence.
4- Pop Not giving Blair the ample chance to play the 4 like he promised in the interview in Las Vegas (I guess what he says in Vegas stays in Vegas?)
Oh I hope that I’m wrong in all accounts but after the Nets game last season I started using Morphy’s Law or should I call it Pop’s Law?
The Spurs will better than what the pundits make them out to be, but the rest is up to Pop and health of course.
August 10th, 2010 at 10:57 pm
Boring. Please, please please Pop, there’s still time to shake things up. Sending in the same role players-Antonio, Richard, Bonner, Hill, Blair- and expecting more production is more than lame, its just plain dumb. Splitter is not a Robinson or a Duncan, people, he’s a Malik Rose at best. True that Mason and Bogans are addition by subtraction, but we need to shake things up for the Big Three’s sake.
August 10th, 2010 at 11:04 pm
Jim,
“Bottom line: I don’t know who will be 2-8 seed, but the Spurs will have their chance to be near the top as long as they are healthy.”
This is the bottom line.
That along with how well players like Splitter and Anderson do in their first full nba season. Not many rookies do well in the playoffs after a long regular season. And the number of BTB’s at the end of the season may prove to be too much for our aged veterans and inexperienced youth to physically overcome when the playoffs begin.
This alone keeps telling me that it doesn’t matter if the team is 2nd or 8th seed prior to the playoffs. It’ll all be about their health to play effectively… but more importantly…their endurance to play beyond a brutal schedule the last 2 months of the regular season.
Looking at the schedule…would you (or any of you) prefer the amount of BTB’s at the end of the schedule as they are?…More towards the beginning to midway through the season?…or, It doesn’t matter when these BTB’s are scheduled?
August 10th, 2010 at 11:31 pm
ChillFAN,
Jefferson and Hill should do considerably better than last year. Blair will have to have more minutes per game during the season to be expected to have a shot at becoming better. And having Blair play more (along with the development of Splitter) will determine McDyess’s effectiveness in the post season.
Bonner is the only one you mentioned who, imo, wouldn’t make that much of a difference in effectivenss for the team.
But I agree…it would help a lot to be able to bring in some sort of proven vet not over the age of 30 to bolster this team’s chances to be better. The problem is…there’s not any available to just sign out right. And just a couple of teams where the Spurs could “realistically” land one via a trade. And that wouldn’t happen without giving up either Parker or Manu.
It’s not as easy as just going out there and getting what you want when you want.
August 11th, 2010 at 12:24 am
I don’t think Splitter will average, for the season, more than 25-26 minutes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 20-22.
Last year he averaged about 28 minutes in Europe, so Pop and the front office don’t really know how he would respond to that amount of time on the floor for 90+ games. Either they will keep the minutes steady in the low twenties, or his presence on the floor will vary according to his strenght and stamina from period to period.
Just like for Duncan and Manu, they will have to balance the need for him on the floor with having him healthy for the playoff.
I see Pop poised to use Blair a lot during the regular season. He’s young and has that energy that every team needs while grinding out 82 games.
Come playoff time he’ll play a lot less, not just because of experience, but because against some teams he’s simply not big enough.
August 11th, 2010 at 5:54 am
@Chillfan
“Pop will not give that many minutes to rookies Splitter or Anderson.”
I completely disagree. The spanish league MVP isnt your average ‘unporven’ rookie out of college. This man has been a professional basketball player for several years now, and has excelled in every level he has been tested against.
Anderson is a completely different deck of cards. He did happen to be BIG 12 Player of the Year, which is no small feat in that college conference. I see him getting 10-12 minutes behind RJ.
Neal is also a proven shooter. Putting up the kind of numbers (dont know exact off top of my head) while being the focal point of the oppositions defense…
I completely understand that just becuase you are excellent in Europe doesnt mean you will be excellent in the NBA, however, it does mean you have every bit as good a chance as anyone else.
Easy with the negativity…
August 11th, 2010 at 6:59 am
We will be very good. Anywhere from 2nd to 6th seed in a tight race and we will get over 50 wins again.
August 11th, 2010 at 7:13 am
Looking at the consensus here and having read what the other NBA experts have been saying - SI, Yahoo, ESPN, NBA.com- it is apparent that the San Antonio Spurs are under the radar as top contenders this coming season; darkhorses if you may.
Which, again, is just fine by us. Yet, when I look at their present roster, I believe they are far deeper, more talented compared to last year, notwithstanding the newest acquisitions, or, perhaps, because of them.
But it all boils down to the foundation of this franchise, of course: his eminence, Tim Duncan.
Age may have eroded his physical skills, but I believe his inner fire will be stoked more than ever before, seeing all of the recent off season developments that have occurred. Oh, he’s aware of them, all right - just more grist to the fifth ring he is running after.
We do doff our hats for management in assembling a competitive team around him, making the San Antonio’s title drive for five very, very much alive. And need we mention, too, that this season concludes in an odd year?
Let LA, Miami, Boston, Oklahoma, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, hog the spotlight. As long as San Antonio, in the end, gains all the glory; this, and only this, is what true Spurs believers ask, nothing more, nothing less.
Amen.
August 11th, 2010 at 7:25 am
i think we need another big to gobble up regular season minutes. too bad juwan howard and theo ratliff have contracts. timmy and dyess need to rest and splitter won’t be ready to take a heavy workload.
are we still looking for another SF?
August 11th, 2010 at 7:27 am
@ ChillFAN
I disagree that Splitter won’t get minutes. As DieHardSpur says, Splitter isn’t your average rookie. He’s much more like Manu rather than Blair. Manu got 20 mpg as a rookie and he could have got more if he wasn’t behind Stephen Jackson and Steve Smith, 2 proven veterans. Splitter is behind Dice for right now, but if Splitter kicks butt in training camp, I can see him in a starting role real quick.
It’s all about learning the system. If he doesn’t catch on, he doesn’t play. If he does, he could see as many as 30 mpg in stretches, especially on the 2nd game of a back-to-back.
@sasleepless
Duncan only topped 40 mins in a game 4 times last season, and topped 38 mins in a game for another 3 times all while his back-ups were Dice and Bonner. This year his back-up is the Spanish League MVP, who is a rookie in name only and a much improved Blair. No way there is “heavy minutes for Duncan in the beginning of the season (over 40 minutes in some meaningless games).”
August 11th, 2010 at 9:04 am
Splitter will get minutes, most likely 24-28 per game, with most of that coming in the latter half of the season. As others touched on, he’s no more a rookie than Luis Scola was when he came over. I expect a similar impact. He’s no Ian Mahinmi
TD’s minutes will be reduced by 10%, putting him at about 28 per game, and no b2b’s. TP should be the only of the Big 3 to see his minutes increased. I see him going from 30 to about 33, where he was the last few seasons.
August 11th, 2010 at 9:22 am
Between a healthy and rested Big 3, a familiarized RJ, an improved Hill and Blair, the addition of Splitter, the subtraction of Mason and Bogans, and the youth/depth that Temple, Gee, and Anderson bring to the table, I find it hard to argue we aren’t going to have a much smoother regular season.
All in all, we have more firepower offensively than we did last year (how many open shots did Mason and Bogans miss). And our defense can’t be any worse, and should be better - Blair will be better with one season under his belt and Splitter should prove to be an adequate post/help defender with his size, strength, and smarts.
I would argue that besides Portland getting healthy and Houston getting Yao back, the Spurs improved more than any team in the West this offseason (I don’t count NO getting Paul back because I can’t see them making the playoffs with that roster). Dallas stood pat (Chandler doesn’t exactly strike fear in me, and Beaubios just broke his foot), PHX has to replace 1/2 their PnR, and Utah replaced Boozer with the black hole/pump fake machine that is Al Jefferson.
I really like our potential as a team - we certainly have a higher cieling than last year. It’s going to come down to what it always does - health and rest. If we have both, we have just as good a chance as anyone to reach the Western Finals.
August 11th, 2010 at 10:26 am
I don’t agree with this growing sentiment that Pop refuses to play rookies because he’s an angry old man (or something). He absolutely WILL play rookies. If these guys can prove they’re worth anything at all, he’ll put them in. Just look at how he handled Tony, Manu, Tim, and (to some degree) George and Dejuan.
Just because he didn’t play Ian at all, or play Dejuan “enough” for some of you, doesn’t at all suggest he has made some rule against playing rookies. Man knows what he’s doing. I truely believe that.
August 11th, 2010 at 10:55 am
@ Kevin -
“I don’t agree with this growing sentiment that Pop refuses to play rookies because he’s an angry old man (or something). ”
I agree with you. Ever since drafting Tim Duncan, the San Antonio Spurs have been true championship contenders. How many TRUE championship contenders have you ever seen give 20+ minutes to a rookie that wasn’t a top 10 pick? It rarely happens. Teams that are contending for a ring have most of their rotation set. This is the position we have been in for soooo long, that we have grown accustomed to rookies not getting much playing time unless there was absoloutely no mistaking the talent level (i.e - Manu, Tony, DeJuan).
Popavich is widely revered as one of the best coaches of all time… but he isnt good enough for our spoiled San Antonio fans… You can doubt his decisions all you want, but i guarantee you he makes better decisions than you would in the same situation. Shame on you guys.
August 11th, 2010 at 10:57 am
Hobson13
August 10th, 2010 at 9:24 pm
“There has simply been too much roster turnover at key positions with teams such as the Jazz and the Suns for them to instantly gell.”
Those are TWO of the THREE teams in the West that have not improved. The others have. You can hope for the injury bug to continue for some of these teams all you want, but it’s just a hope. I think it’s a mistake to count on injuries for the competition to make our way up the standings.
“I lost some respect for Hollinger in his latest ranking of the West. There’s simply no excuse (outside of being a bandwagon reporter) to put the Thunder second behind only the Lakers.”
I agree. I have the Thunder ranked 6th in the West.
“When do they quit being referred to as the “up-and-coming” team and become the “had potential, but…” team?”
“Never reaching their potential” is not the Blazers problem. They have plenty of guys with a decent amount of experience: Miller, Roy, Aldridge, Pryzbila, Camby, and even Batum is now entering his 3rd year. Injuries have been the problem for the past 2-3 years. I’m simply not betting that the injury plague continues. You can do so at your own peril.
“For Utah, I’m not convinced that Al Jefferson is THAT much of an upgrade over Boozer if an upgrade at all.”
I agree. I don’t see the Jaz improving, at least not in the transition year from Booz to AJ. Plus they lost Korver & Mathews, and picked up Bell. Overall, that’s a loss. Currently, I have them ranked 8th in the West.
“With the Suns, I have no idea what the hell they will look like.”
The Suns do not improve without Amare. Currently, their front line is very undersized, and they really have no strong low-post scorers. Currently, I have them as one of a handful of “dark horses” with a shot at battling for the 8th seed.
“Nuggets: They peaked two years ago in the WCF against the Lakers.”
I agree. Karl is super important to that team. Cancer is something you just can’t disregard. K. Martin is absolutely critical for them from a defensive standpoint, and I think that he is now in decline. I currently have the Nuggets ranked 7th in the West.
“Mavs: Didn’t we just beat them in 6 games a few months ago?”
We had a good playoff series against them, but it wasn’t easy, and they were the #2 seed. Also, it was their 1st year under coach Carlisle (who regardless of some of his playoff decisions last year, is a solid coach), they only had Haywood & Butler on their team for 2 months, they hadn’t yet figured out how to get the young and talented Beaubois into the mix, and they picked up Chandler in place of Dampier, which is an upgrade in my view. As it stands now, I have the Mavs ranked 4th in the West, one spot ahead of the Spurs.
“The West stayed the same and the East got better.”
In my view, they both improved, but the East improved more.
Sure it’s hard to predict where the 2-8th seeds end up, but in my view, as it currently stands, the most likely final seeding is as follows:
LA
Rockets
Blazers
Mavs
Spurs
Thunder
Nuggets
Jazz
Suns, Kings, Grizzlies, & Clippers as 8th seed “dark horses”.
I’m not going to count on injuries to knock the Rockets & Blazers out of their spots. It could happen, but I’m not going to count on it, just like I’m not going to count on the Spurs being completely healthy the whole year either.
August 11th, 2010 at 11:14 am
Francesco
August 11th, 2010 at 12:24 am
“I don’t think Splitter will average, for the season, more than 25-26 minutes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 20-22.
Last year he averaged about 28 minutes in Europe, so Pop and the front office don’t really know how he would respond to that amount of time on the floor for 90+ games.”
Good point. I agree.
“Come playoff time he’ll play a lot less, not just because of experience, but because against some teams he’s simply not big enough.”
I disagree. Blair should play a major role in the playoffs, or we’ll be out no later than the 2nd round again. And you can that to the bank.
Tyler
August 11th, 2010 at 9:04 am
“Splitter will get minutes, most likely 24-28 per game, with most of that coming in the latter half of the season.”
That sounds reasonable. I suspect more toward the bottom of your range, but 28 mpg. is possible late in the season if Splitter is playing very well, and proves to have a distinct impact on us winning games.
August 11th, 2010 at 11:20 am
I just finished reading up the West predictions over at espn. Wow. Most “experts” have us finishing behind Denver; Denver? The team that imploded last year without Karl. Not a chance we finish behind the Nugs. I guarantee it. Everybody is picking Dallas as 2nd or 3rd with a PG who will use a rascal to get around.
Craziness.
We are being overlooked yet again. Finally, after the RRT we will make a major run and everyone will say how they shouldn’t have written us off. Yawn..
Besides LA, I am concerned about OKC and Portland. Those two teams, if healthy and focused, will be a handful. Also Houston is a bit scary. They are two deep everywhere with pretty good players. Jazz, Nugs and Mavs do not scare me much at all. Phoenix is a big fat question mark in my mind. It’ll be interesting to see how they gel.
Can’t hardly wait for the fall.
Go Spurs Go!
August 11th, 2010 at 11:45 am
On a side not about Portland. If Oden is finally healthy, watch the hell out. His defense is so good. I think he can be better defensively than Howard. I know many of you will think that is nonsense. Just pay attention to his game. (if he’s not on crutches again) He fouls less than Howard; he’s able to keep position with his hands held vertically AND THEN STILL SWAT SHOTS. Howard CAN NOT do that.
For the Spurs sake, I hope he is unrealized talent.
August 11th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
Interesting multi-player, 4-team trade that just went down:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5455472
August 11th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
The following post assumes all players are healthy.
The Jazz, Rockets, Suns, Blazers, and Nuggets don’t scare me.
Jazz lost Matthews, Korver, and Boozer, and gained Jefferson. I honestly think that the Jefferson/Boozer swap is a wash, with each contributing a 20/10 and weak interior D. Losing Korver and Matthews is a bigger deal than most realize.
I don’t see the Rockets’ Big 3 (Yao, Brooks, Martin) co-existing on the court for the whole season. Brooks and Martin need touches and thrive in a fast paced offense. Yao needs touches because he’s the easiest 2 points in the game, but he thrives in a half court set.
The Nugs are going to have too much other stuff going on. You got George Carl’s battle with cancer. Then there’s the whole Carmelo thing. If he even begins to feel bummed about anything, Denver will blow up.
The Suns didn’t gain anything on the perimeter. Then they lost Amar’e, which is huge for their brand of ball. Now they have Lopez Jr anchoring the middle. there’s no way they can win a 7 game series against anyone.
Portland has several guys coming off of injury and a few bench players moving around. I think they have a hard time coming together as a team. I also think they’ll be worrying about re-injury all year, and that will be the ultimate mind game for half of this team.
LA is still the best team until proven otherwise. The Mavs will win 53-ish games and then get beat early in the playoffs. The Spurs will break the 50 win mark again, but make a deep run and give LA some worries. OKC will suprise everyone and make a run at the #1 spot in the West. Also, I think Memphis and the Clippers might have an opportunity to make the playoffs as well.
Yet again, the West is the best.
August 11th, 2010 at 12:37 pm
@ Jim
I bet the Hornets were the mastermind behind that whole thing. They’re going to pull out all the stops to make sure Paul stays happy. This is a good move as it dumps Posey’s carcass and gives Paul a sweet fast break partner in Ariza.
August 11th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
The winners out of the West will depend directly on Team Health. If Kobe or Gasol were to go down, or Nowitzki, or Durant, or ?????, that team is finished. Same applies to the East - injuries show no respect or star treatment. Any one of Miami’s 3 go down and its over for them. Staying healthy is a crap shoot.
August 11th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
I’ve already posted a novel somewhere stating how many teams have imporved in the West. It will not be a cakewalk. And assessing to what degree the improvements are made will be something to watch.
@Lenneezz
You know the Mavs have another PG that is lightning fast and can flat out ball right? Roddy’s development and Chandler’s health will be huge for the Mavs. We didn’t see much of Frenchy last year in the playoffs. He suffered in a similar vein of what Pop did to Hill his rookie season and was left on the bench since he was so young. AFAIK Frenchy is the only rookie in NBA history to average over 50% from the field, 40% from 3 and 80% from the FT line. Very interesting prospect. Could be a handful for the Spurs if used properly and IF he develops. Plus Mahimi “the Savior” is in Dallas. No way we can win now since he was supposed to be the second coming. All kidding aside, it means his brain will be picked to death about TD’s tendencies etc. Can’t hurt their chances having someone out of Spurs camp with corporate knowledge of playrs and the system.
When assessing how little the other teams in the West imporved we need to take off our Spurscolored glasses and look at how someone in Portland/Utah/LA/Dallas thinks the Spurs improved. After getting swept in the playoffs and embarassed ,it became evident that we needed a defensive stopper on the wing, shot blocking on the inside, and 3 pt shooters. Those weaknesses were more than exposed by the Suns. We got Splitter and resigned Jeff/Bonner; also dumped Mase and the defensive Bogans (and there was much rejoice). So when people say the West hasn’t improved by what little moves have been made (which I don’t totally agree with), can we honestly say on paper that the Spurs have improved much more from a purely un-biased perspective? Defensive wing stopper… nope; 3 point shooting… nope (only resigning Bonner who is only a bench player), shot blocking presence… nope. Anderson may help with 3pt shooting but we don’t know he’s a rookie. Splitter may help with team defense and open up passing lanes since he has above average vision for a big man but he’s a rookie. Temple may turn into a serviceable stopper and if he can hit a corner 3 that would be perfect. Then again, he’s almost a rookie. Lots of expectations of improvement of young players in order for the Spurs to succeed. I do hope we struck gold with several of our young guys; but only time will tell. On paper we have not made huge leaps I think a 6 or 5 pre-season ranking is more than valid for the on paper moves. If the FO found some jewels it will show next year and we’ll climb in the rankings, if not I’d expect a 6 or 5th seed.
August 11th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
I like that deal for everyone invlolved. Indiana finally gets a PG, Rockets move Ariza (who I think is overpaid a little) and open up more PT for Battier (who should be more effective as a quality spot up shooter with Yao in the lineup) and get a solid backup SG in Courtney Lee, and NO gets Paul some help in the backcourt.
August 11th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
If we are to make a serious run at the title, a few things have to fall into place…
1. Splitter has to play extremely well, both offensifely and defensively. (30+ minutes)
2. All of our BIG 3 have to stay healthy.
3. RJ has to be a consistent contributor (points/rebounds)
4. Our shooters need to knock down the open shot.
When I say that Tiago needs to play extremely well, I am referring to 16 points and 10 rebounds. He needs to be a very effective team and 1-on-1 defender. This will bring our front court back to ELITE status.
Timmy, and Manu need to see their minutes reduced by about 5 minutes per game and log DNP’s on back to back. I would also like to see their minutes drop within the last 2 weeks of the season to about 20 minutes - to save them for the playoffs. Tony will be in fantastic shap with alot to prove for his max contract.
RJ needs to bang the boards like he did in the ladder half of the season. This will build his confidence. We need to have him implemented into the offence… he needs plays run for him. Get him started early. i am fine wit him averaging 12.5 pts per game - as long as it is every damn game. He needs to show up - and have at least 9 attempts.
How many times last year did we run the play perfectly, make the extra pass, and then have a “shooter” miss the wide open shot? We lost 8-10 games last year for the lack of a guy to knock down the open shot. I am hoping that Anderson and Neal will provide the balls to take the big shot with confidence.
I know this sounds like a bunch of hopes and dreams, but I am not asking that much in all reality. The best chance at us competing for a ring this year is the assimilation of Tiago Splitter. If he can play like a man on a mission to win a ring in his first year, we have a great shot!
Go Spurs Go!
August 11th, 2010 at 1:35 pm
@ Dr. Who
You’re giving Mahinmi a little too much credit. If he had gained enough corporate knowledge to make him valuable to the Mavs, we wouldn’t have let him go. Besides, the Mavs already know how the Timmy and the Spurs play, seeing as Tim’s played against them 65 times in his career.
August 11th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
@ThatBigGuy
Adding Mahimi (practice players from a competetive team) never hurts. That’s all I said. No doubt they know TD well form the many battles over the years. Let’s just say now they know him a tad better.
In another post I harped on TD abusing Dampier since birth and Chandler giving him more fits one on one than Damps. If Chandler can stay healthy that’s a big upgrade. I like poking fun at the whole Mahimi situation since so many were on his bandwagon. I thought he deserved more burn at times, but never thought of him as a saviour. He’ll do about as much for the Mavs as Pops Mensa and Haislip will do for their respective teams if even on NBA rosters. He’ll be another big body in practice or to be used in reserve minutes.
August 11th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
First off this quote from hobson 13, “With the Suns, I have no idea what the hell they will look like. They could look like Frankenstein or Gisele.” , that cracks me up. On to the business at hand.
I would like to address Mr Henderson’s statement regarding others seeming to hope for the demise of the Rockets and Blazers due to Injury. I myself believe that it is more wishful thinking that these teams are going to be 2nd and 3rd respectively.
The rockets , while the blazers where busy taking the phoenix suns to 6 games in the opening round (OKC meanwhile was taking the eventual champion Lakers to 6) these rockets did not even make the playoffs last year Heck they where only 2 games above 500 . What we are looking at here is the hope that a healthy Yao and the addition of Brad Miller are going to propel this team into the number 2 seed. I am not certain when the story broke in relation to your post about Ariza being shipped to NO to keep cpremeddona3 happy but, that is also a downgrade of serious proportions. I dont see the rockets being out of the playoffs per se but i do see them as 3rd best in their division behind los spurs and los mavs. So maybe an 8th seed maybe ? BTW regardless of Ariza or not i still would have put them 3rd best in the division …. anyone disagree ?
Portland …. what can I say they play hard, have two 50 plus win seasons behind them, and the incredible breakable center in greg oden . What did they do in free agency they picked up San Antonio bred Wesley Mathews who just so happens to be the same age as me. I like this kid this will be his sophmore year he showed last year he can shoot the three, is an over 80% freethrow shooter heck I want this kid for our sf of the future even tho he is listed as a guard… but I digress. In all honesty im kinda doing this on the fly and can not stand it when anyone who has faith in the blazers or rockets but damn the blazers look pretty solid this year assuming of course Greg Oden can stay in one piece . Even without Oden they look good . I can see them in the top 4 for sure. I would put it something like this. Note I think the spurs will havew more wins than the blazers but get seeded 4th by virtue of the 123 division winners rule.
1.Lakers
2.Mavericks
3.Blazers
4.Spurs
5.Thunder
6.Nuggets
7.Jazz
8.Suns
Gimme some rockets,Hornets and Warriors wild.
P.S. the computer did not mark cpremeddona3 in the spell check . I thought that was hilarious!
August 11th, 2010 at 3:52 pm
Looks like the Spurs are in for a tough March and April, hopefully they can build on early and avoid having to struggle just to make the playoffs this time around.
We have hope we now have Tiago, Anderson and Neal so I guess another 50+ win this season is well within reach.
Btw please check out my latest post @ http://projectspurs.com/2010-articles/august/grading-the-spurs-offseason-moves.html and tell me what you guys think! Thanks!
August 11th, 2010 at 7:16 pm
rockets got much bigger down low and better on the perimeter and are still stacked at small forward. I’d say they have probably had the best offseason apart from Miami - on paper that is.
August 11th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
Jim Henderson
August 11th, 2010 at 10:57 am
“I’m simply not betting that the injury plague continues.”
personally, i don’t see how you can, on the one hand, bank on the spurs’ inability to stay healthy or jell, yet on the other, disregard the rockets’ and blazers’ inability to stay healthy. by history, i’d say that’s the foolish thing. if fully healthy, sure, i’d give the blazers a shot at dethroning the lakers with all their length and athleticism, but that’s as big an if as our team coming together. the rockets have talent as well, just as we do. by all accounts though, he’s not going to be the player he was. maybe his comments were to take the CCP off his back for international competition, but i get the feeling he’s seen the end of his career pass the horizon.
either way, i agree with the sentiment that no team will pass 60 wins in the west this year. i’m not ranking the teams because i think it’s futile when 2-8 were separated by 5 games last year. i think we’re in for much of the same down to the wire standings.
August 11th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
@DoctorWho
“You know the Mavs have another PG that is lightning fast and can flat out ball right?”
Roddy B was very impressive last year and in his cameo in the playoffs; no doubt.
Don’t forget though that he was a basically unknown rookie. Plus, he doesn’t seem to get his teammates involved. He is a nice scorer on their second team; reminds me of Barbosa in Phx. Is he a difference maker? Chandler is an upgrade no doubt. On paper they are pretty darn good. Maybe they’ll put together another great regular season…maybe.
On the other hand, I could see a team that just looks old. Jet losing his range; Butler getting completely disinterested, Kidd losing a step, etc… I just don’t respect the Mavs at all. They always find a way to blow it.
August 11th, 2010 at 7:56 pm
Dr. Who
August 11th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
“Lots of expectations of improvement of young players in order for the Spurs to succeed.”
Exactly, well put, and a point I’ve reiterated ad nauseam in the past several weeks.
“On paper we have not made huge leaps I think a 6 or 5 pre-season ranking is more than valid for the on paper moves. If the FO found some jewels it will show next year and we’ll climb in the rankings, if not I’d expect a 6 or 5th seed.”
Can’t say I disagree with that!
Firebrand
August 11th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
“I am not certain when the story broke in relation to your post about Ariza being shipped to NO to keep cpremeddona3 happy but, that is also a downgrade of serious proportions.”
That is not a downgrade in the least. In fact the Rockets were TOO deep at the SF spot. Ariza & Battier are BOTH too good to share the SF spot. So they shipped out Ariza and his pricey contract, and picked up an excellent back-up for Kevin Martin in Courtney Lee. Lee could start for a number of teams at the SG position, but he’s young enough and cheap enough to be a great piece of insurance behind Martin. And then there is Budinger. This guy is going to be really good, so freeing up minutes for him behind Battier at SF instead of SG is a great idea because Budinger has the length to be groomed by Battier at the three spot. Houston probably has as much talent 1-10 as any team in the league.
Last year, the Rockets had no Yao (a huge loss - try playing without Duncan for a whole season), Martin for only one third of the season, and Battier missed 15 games, most of them near the end of the season. Plus they have several quality young guys that are still improving (Brooks, Budinger, Lowry, Lee, Hill), and the 15th pick Patterson could also be pretty good.
I don’t know what you’re looking at if you don’t think Houston is a threat for the #2 seed in the West. Do you have no idea how good Yao is? In fact, you don’t even rank them in the playoffs. I’ll tell you what, the chances that the Suns beat out the Rockets for a playoff spot this year is about one in a hundred, and I would bet you anything that does not occur. If the Suns get in, it won’t be at the expense of the Rockets. NO WAY.
August 11th, 2010 at 8:22 pm
My top 5 wish list for this year
1. A healthy Big 3
2. Tiago to be a Brazilian monster
3. Jefferson to be confident - Seeing him so scared and confused on the court DISGUSTED me.
4. Hill and Blair going to the next level
5. Good shooting from Neal, Anderson & Boner - They will get plenty of shots
Extra credit : If Anderson focuses on perimeter defense.
August 11th, 2010 at 8:28 pm
I wrote my list before I continued scrolling down and read this post.
DieHardSpur
August 11th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
I guess us fans know what we need.
August 11th, 2010 at 9:03 pm
I’ve been visiting this site for a couple of weeks now and have enjoyed the posts immensely. It’s so refreshing to be a part of a fanbase whose fans actually use logic and are well informed. Have u ever tried to read posts on ESPN? It’s pretty much a joke. This is my first post and hopefully will have more.
With that said, I live in FL and have been a Spurs fan since the twin towers were constructed. I don’t get to watch as many games as u guys, just the ones on national tv. But the ones I did get to see were very disappointing. I had so many hopes for last season as I’m sure ya’ll did too. This is the first time I’ve been watching their offseason daily. That’s how worried I was. As bad as the season was, we came into the playoffs on a mission. With the team we had, going on the road, and beating Dallas in 6 was more than I expected.
If we had a choice between beating only 1 of these 3 teams in the playoffs (Dallas,Phoenix,LA) I’m picking Dallas anyday. So we got something out of the postseason. On top of that, Hill and Blair played really well for their first postseason. This team as it stands, should be better than last year’s team going into playoffs.
August 11th, 2010 at 11:51 pm
Jim Henderson
August 11th, 2010 at 10:57 am
“(For the Blazers) Injuries have been the problem for the past 2-3 years. I’m simply not betting that the injury plague continues. You can do so at your own peril.”
I agree that injuries have been a HUGE part of them not realizing their potential for the past 2-3 years. However, I’m not necessarily assuming everyone is going to break a leg on their team. In reality, we have little idea how this team will pan out since they can’t all get on the floor together for more than a month at a time. Maybe they pound everyone next year. Maybe they finish 6th next year. The Blazers have too many unknowns for me.
“Also, it was their 1st year under coach Carlisle (who regardless of some of his playoff decisions last year, is a solid coach), they only had Haywood & Butler on their team for 2 months, they hadn’t yet figured out how to get the young and talented Beaubois into the mix, and they picked up Chandler in place of Dampier, which is an upgrade in my view.”
I agree that perhaps Carlisle’s system will be better understood and implemented by the Mavs this next year. I could also see, like you implied, the newer Mavs (Butler and Haywood) gelling better with more time under their belt. However, this doesn’t turn back the clock on Kidd, Terry, or Marion nor does it turn Caron Butler into an effecient scorer. Chandler in place of Dampier is only a marginal upgrade IMO. He is a better defender, but like Erica, brings nothing to the table on the offensive end.
Bottom line: Dallas is over the cap, has only one young stud, used up their last trade asset in Damp, and have too many players on the wrong side of 30. Things don’t get much easier for the Mavs this next year.
“Sure it’s hard to predict where the 2-8th seeds end up, but in my view, as it currently stands, the most likely final seeding is as follows:
LA
Rockets
Blazers
Mavs
Spurs
Thunder
Nuggets
Jazz”
The Rockets could be the second best team, if Yao returns to All star form, but I am a bit worried about him. I’m sure you’ve seen this article about his foot, but if not, here it is:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-yaofuture
He doesn’t sound too optimistic about the future. I can only imagine how difficult injuries must be for a 7’6″ dude. I really feel for the guy. He could have been an MVP caliber player if he wasn’t so injury prone.
August 12th, 2010 at 5:29 am
@ Justin
Welcome to the site, we appreciate the good vibes. Make yourself at home.
August 12th, 2010 at 9:37 am
@ Mr. Henderson
You just compared the rockets losing Yao Ming to the spurs losing Tim Duncan. Seriously I happen to thing Ming is one of the most overrated players in the league. He has averaged only 16.2 ppg has more than twice as many turnovers as assist about 1.5 bpg and just under 8rpg for his career not to mention has only been out of the opening round of the playoffs once. I think he is a good center top 5 in the league even, when he is healthy, but to put him on caliber with Tim Duncan is ridiculous . Timmy’s year when he was suffering for plantar fasciitis is still a better year then Ming’s best season.
So with that said I dont think the addition of Ming is enough to boost them to the 2 seed. Courtney Lee is a good addition, I retract my earlier statement about the downgrade, he was even a starter for the magic in the finals and played opposite Ariza if i remember correctly. Still you have to reincorporate Ming, get Miller and Lee up to speed ( I realize Miller knows Adelmans system pretty well from his time in SAC) I think they need another year under there belt but who knows maybe they will gel early and I will be eating my words.
August 12th, 2010 at 10:28 am
@Justin
First post huh? And from Florida? We don’t want your kind around here go cheer for the Heat…
Totally kidding!!!! We like to joke around here, or at least I do. Welcome to the board. Glad you took the dive and had your first post! Keep em’ coming. Let everyone know what you think. Some people will agree and others won’t, that’s the beauty of it. It’s always good to get a new fresh voice in here. By your playoffs comments I can tell you’re a real Spurs fan. What I mean is if you have a chance to only beat one team in the playoffs and then bow out; the Mavs and Cuban go to the top of list! Although seeing Fish and Kobe cry is pretty darn satifysing as well. Seeing Cuban squirm was priceless. We look forward to your posts. An active board is a happy one.
PS
Yes I’ve seen those ESPN boards, they are full of Mav/Laker idiot fans with zero logic behind their rants. Can’t stand them. Uh… we’ve got a few illogical beings on this board too. They’ll come out during the regular season. You’ll be able to pick them out really really fast. Enjoy!
August 12th, 2010 at 11:41 am
Hobson13
August 11th, 2010 at 11:51 pm
“Maybe they pound everyone next year. Maybe they finish 6th next year. The Blazers have too many unknowns for me.”
Most teams have quite a few unknowns, including the Spurs. The best thing you can do is look at what they have on paper, evaluate their overall talent, look at their coaching staff, and make an assessment — a prediction of their likelihood of success against their competition. When I look at the Blazer’s under those conditions, I rank them 3rd in the West.
“Bottom line: Dallas is over the cap, has only one young stud, used up their last trade asset in Damp, and have too many players on the wrong side of 30. Things don’t get much easier for the Mavs this next year.”
Not much different than the Spurs, except we have TWO, NBA-proven young studs. Granted, the Mavs are getting a bit old in the tooth, but most of the Spurs NBA-proven players in the rotation are also on the old-side of the spectrum. I have them the Mavs/Spurs ranked 4 & 5. The Mavs do have 4 guys 6’11″ and above. Can we neutralize their length in the paint will be a key factor.
“The Rockets could be the second best team, if Yao returns to All star form, but I am a bit worried about him. I’m sure you’ve seen this article about his foot, but if not, here it is:”
Yeah, I’ve read the article. Yao is a wild card for them to get to the #2 seed. Even if Yao misses part of the year though, I think the Rockets still have a good chance to get into the top five. They’re that deep, in my view.
Firebrand
August 12th, 2010 at 9:37 am
“I think he is a good center top 5 in the league even, when he is healthy, but to put him on caliber with Tim Duncan is ridiculous.”
First of all, I wasn’t directly comparing Yao and TD as players. I was merely saying that for the Rockets to play last year without Yao is reasonably comparable to the Spurs playing without TD last year.
Career Numbers:
TD: 21.6 ppg., 11.6 rpg., 2.3 bpg.
Yao: 19.1 pg., 9.3 rpg., 1.9 bpg.
Last Year’s Numbers:
TD: 17.9 ppg., 10.1 rpg., 1.5 bpg.
Yao: 19.7 ppg. 9.9 rpg., 1.9 bpg.
Timmy has him beat in career numbers, but in all main categories the discrepancies are not large. And in their most recent year, Yao is now very comparable in terms of production, probably because he’s 30 years old and TD is now 34. The fact is, Yao’s production was SORELY missed by the Rockets last year, and you don’t seem to understand that. When healthy, Yao and D. Howard are the top two centers in the entire league.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
@ JIM HENDERSON
“Last Year’s Numbers:
TD: 17.9 ppg., 10.1 rpg., 1.5 bpg.
Yao: 19.7 ppg. 9.9 rpg., 1.9 bpg.”
Yao’s numbers lasy year were the following:
0.0ppg., 0rpg., 0bpg.,
It is kinda hard to bet on that…
IF he’s heathy. THATS A BIG IF. YAO has never played an entire 82 game season.
I hate it, because i love to see the masters in the paint go to work; it is alot like watching a master carpenter build something one of a kind… too bad we will never see YAO in that light every game for an entire year.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
DieHardSpur
August 12th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
“Yao’s numbers lasy year were the following:
0.0ppg., 0rpg., 0bpg.,
It is kinda hard to bet on that…”
Obviously, the numbers I used was for the year before; the last year he played! He’s only played less than 50 games in a season one other time in seven years.
“IF he’s heathy. THATS A BIG IF. YAO has never played an entire 82 game season.”
Yao has played all 82 games in TWO times in his 8 years in the league, which is 25% of the time. Duncan has played in all 82 games three times out of his 13 years in the league, which is 23% of the time.
Yao has played in 73% of his teams games since being in the league (which includes missing all of last season). Duncan has played in 91% of his teams games since he’s been in the league. Certainly Duncan has been more consistent & durable, but the idea that Yao is likely to miss a large number of his teams games this year is not born out by history. If Yao misses 27% of his games this year, as his career average would suggest, he would miss 22 out of the teams 82 games this year. If Houston has Yao pretty healthy for 60 games this year, that should be enough for them to challenge for a top four spot in the West. They are that deep.
Take Houston lightly at your own peril.
August 12th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
Jim Henderson I must apologize the numbers i got where from a search that led me to the nba.com site apparently the numbers I was quoting where preseason totals ..oops!
August 12th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
Thanks to Dr Who and Andrew for the warm welcome. Mr. Henderson I have enjoyed your brutal honesty so much over these past few weeks. There is no Spurs Koolaid drinking going on around here. We know our flaws a little to well. I agree that Yao will not be the same player he was. Mostly based on his own comments. I doubt he would reveal how bad it really is, but he gives some clues.
Any player missing a whole NBA season is going to come back rusty. I wish him the best of luck. Houston has really changed their reputation the past few seasons. I guess some of it comes from Adelman, but with Scola and Battier this team plays with some heart. I agree that I wouldn’t count them out with or without Yao.
August 12th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
By the way, is this possible?
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2aw935t
August 12th, 2010 at 10:14 pm
Justin
August 12th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
“Mr. Henderson I have enjoyed your brutal honesty so much over these past few weeks.”
Thanks a lot, Justin. I hope it wasn’t TOO brutal! And welcome to the blog. Remember, occasional the sarcasm is usually just in good fun. Some of us just can’t resist it sometimes!
And by the way, your Portland trade really doesn’t have a chance. The Blazers would be giving up too much youth, size, & talent, and in my view most teams still generally undervalue Blair’s true potential. I’m glad you’re thinking trade though. We certainly are missing something to allow us to compete favorably with the elite teams around the league.
August 12th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
“….Remember, occasional the sarcasm is usually just in good fun.”
No, it’s not your dyslexia, it’s my faux pas. Sorry. The above should read: …..the occasional sarcasm is usually just in good fun.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:58 pm
robby,
Overall I agree with your assesment. I look forward to seeing what impact Splitter and Anderson will have. Personally I believe Anderson will fill in time at the SF slot giving the Spurs some depth if another prototypical SF cannot be signed.
Is Pop going to give the rookies playing time? The only players to log significant minutes as rookies or second year players have been Parker, Duncan and Ginobili. Ginobili being well seasoned in Europe prior to joining the Spurs. If Splitter, Anderson and possibly Neal can garnish significant time and (more importantly)contribution on the court…that would be saying something as well as making this team significantly younger and more athletic.
The possibilities are an A+ for this offseason. The reality is…we just don’t know yet. The outright signing of Bonner before addressing the team’s shortcomings at the b/u SF position and perimeter defense makes me give the team a B- so far.
I look forward to seeing what transpires and will really be excited if Splitter, Anderson, and possibly Neal can be significant contributors at such young ages.
August 13th, 2010 at 11:33 am
andy
August 11th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
“personally, i don’t see how you can, on the one hand, bank on the spurs’ inability to stay healthy or jell, yet on the other, disregard the rockets’ and blazers’ inability to stay healthy.”
The most sensible way to approach it is by assuming that all of the the playoff contenders will be relatively healthy, and healthy to a similar degree as their competitors. And that’s what I’ve done. Just because a team has been bit by injuries in the last couple of years is no reason to assume that it continues. Injuries for the most part go in phases, they don’t last forever. If anything, the teams that have suffered the injury bug lately are more due for a healthy season than the teams that have been more injury free of late. Yao is a big concern, but he’s come back from similar injuries in the past, and he is still just 30 years old. And as I said, even without Yao at full strength, the Rockets will be a handful this year.
“i’m not ranking the teams because i think it’s futile when 2-8 were separated by 5 games last year. i think we’re in for much of the same down to the wire standings.”
I agree that the WEST could be very closely grouped for final playoff seedings in the closing weeks of the season. I just did the rankings for the fun of it. My ranking is VERY likely to be off in several spots. Hopefully the Spurs will finish higher! We’ll see.
August 13th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
@Jim
“Yao has played all 82 games in TWO times in his 8 years in the league, which is 25% of the time. Duncan has played in all 82 games three times out of his 13 years in the league, which is 23% of the time.”
Stats don’t lie but there’s much more to it than selective stats. We can often scew perception in a direction based on certain statistics. I’ve already submitted my novel of rankings and I do have the Rockettes higher than most, based on Yao’s health. Without Yao I still think they “could” make the playoffs, but not a hardcore contender for the WCF (with current roster). I am a huge fan of Daryl Morey and his latest move while not sexy is MIT smart. Ariza was brought it not as a defensive stopper (they’ve already go Battier). They brought him in to be “the man.” They wanted the offense run through Ariza and soon found out that he was not that guy. So dumping Ariza gets them below the Luxury Tax and also gets Lee in the proccess. If Yao does go down, the team is deep enough to have some trade assests (Brooks comes to mind if Martin finds his place) and they are not afraid to wheel and deal. No telling what the team will look like come year end. You can’t really sleep on anyone in the West. I think we both mentioned the Clipps at one time being dark horses. It will be much like last year, down to the wire.
Now as far as Yao and his health goes, we seem to get plenty of debates over stats/history etc. etc. So… without a spreadsheet of stats this is the history of Yao. Take it for what it is, hopefully we can all put this one to bed. This is his history, maybe he can get back to his form from the first 2 years in the league, who knows? WARNING WARNING LOOONG @ZZ POST.
After missing only two games out of 246 in his first three years of NBA play, Yao endured an extended period on the inactive list in his fourth season after developing osteomyelitis in the big toe on his left foot, and surgery was performed on the toe on December 18, 2005. Despite missing 21 games while recovering, Yao again had the most fan votes to start the 2006 NBA All-Star Game.
In 25 games after the All-Star break, Yao averaged 25.7 points and 11.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 53.7% from the field and 87.8% at the free-throw line. His final averages in 57 games were 22.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. It was the first time that he ended the season with a so-called “20/10″ average. However, Tracy McGrady played only 47 games in the season, missing time because of back spasms. Yao and McGrady played only 31 games together, and the Rockets did not make the playoffs, winning only 34 games. With only four games left in the season, Yao suffered another injury in a game against the Utah Jazz on April 10, 2006, which left him with a broken bone in his left foot. The injury required six months of rest.
Early into his fifth season, Yao was injured again, this time breaking his right knee on December 23, 2006 while attempting to block a shot. Up to that point he had been averaging 26.8 points, 9.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game, and had been mentioned as an NBA MVP candidate. Yao was unable to play in what would have been his fifth All-Star game; he was medically cleared to play on March 4, 2007, after missing 34 games.
Despite Yao’s absence, the Rockets made the playoffs with the home court advantage against the Utah Jazz in the first round. The Rockets won the first two games, but then lost four of five games and were eliminated in Game 7 at home, despite Yao’s 29 points—15 in the fourth quarter. Although he averaged 25.1 points and 10.3 rebounds for the series, Yao said afterwards “I didn’t do my job”. At the end of the season, Yao was selected to the All-NBA Second Team for the first time in his career, after being selected to the All-NBA Third Team twice.
On May 18, 2007, only weeks after the Rockets were eliminated from the playoffs, Jeff Van Gundy was dismissed as head coach. Three days later, the Rockets signed former Sacramento Kings coach Rick Adelman, who was thought to focus more on offense than the defensive-minded Van Gundy. On November 9, 2007, Yao played against fellow Chinese NBA and Milwaukee Bucks player Yi Jianlian for the first time. The game, which the Rockets won 104–88, was broadcast on 19 networks in China, and was watched by over 200 million people in China alone, making it one of the most-watched NBA games in history. In the 2008 NBA All-Star Game, Yao was once again voted to start at center for the Western Conference. Before the All-Star weekend, the Rockets had won eight straight games, and after the break, they took their win streak to 12 games. On February 26, 2008, however, it was reported that Yao would miss the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his left foot. He missed the 2008 NBA Playoffs, but he did not miss the 2008 Summer Olympics at Beijing, China in August. After Yao’s injury, the Rockets stretched their winning streak to 22 games, the second-longest in NBA history. Yao underwent a successful operation on March 3, which placed screws in his foot to strengthen the bone, and recovery time was estimated at four months. Yao’s final averages in 55 games were 22.0 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks a game.
The next season, Yao played 77 games, his first full season since the 2004–05 season, and averaged 19.7 points and 9.9 rebounds, while shooting 54.8% from the field, and a career-high 86.6% from the free throw line. Despite McGrady suffering a season-ending injury in February, the Rockets finished with 53 wins and the fifth seed in the Western Conference. Facing the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round, Yao finished with 24 points on 9 of 9 shooting in the first game, and the Rockets won 108–81, in Portland. The Rockets won all their games in Houston, and advanced to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 1997, and the first time in Yao’s career.
The Rockets faced the Lakers in the second round, and Yao scored 28 points, with 8 points in the final four minutes, to lead the Rockets to a 100–92 win in Los Angeles. However, the Rockets lost their next two games, and Yao was diagnosed with a sprained ankle after Game 3. A follow-up test revealed a hairline fracture in his left foot, and he was ruled out for the remainder of the playoffs. In reaction, Yao said the injury, which did not require surgery, was “better than last year”. However, follow-up analysis has indicated that the injury could be career threatening. The Yao-less Rockets went on to win Game 4 against the Lakers to even the series 2–2. The Rockets eventually lost the series in seven games.
In July 2009, Yao discussed the injury with his doctors, and the Rockets applied for a disabled player exception, an exception to the NBA Salary Cap which grants the injured player’s team money to sign a free agent. The Rockets were granted the exception, and used approximately $5.7 million on free agent Trevor Ariza. After weeks of consulting, it was decided that Yao would undergo surgery in order to repair the broken bone in his left foot. He is expected to be available for the Rockets training camp in 2010.
August 13th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Dr. Who
August 13th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
These are all nice statistics regarding Yao’s presence on the court when he was prime.
Enter season ending injuries…years of not playing a full season…and age…one simply cannot assess what Ming will be like prior to these circumstnaces.
Ginobili wasn’t the same Ginobili after his injuries. I doubt Yao will be the same Yao.
August 13th, 2010 at 4:20 pm
Dr. Who
August 13th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
You provided a nice snapshot of Yao’s injuries over the years, and his value to the team when healthy. No question about it. Yao being subpar this year, and missing some games would hurt the Rockets shot at a #2 seed, and would reduce their chances of advancing deep into the playoffs. But in my view the Rockets this year are now more talented than they’ve ever been 1-10 on the roster, with quality youth and/or in prime players at every position, except for the wild card at center, with Yao, and the aging but competent veteran back-up in Brad Miller, and old Adelman hand. But they have some younger talent on their front line with Scola, the talented & up and coming, 6’10″, Jordan Hill, the #15 pick Patrick Patterson, and may be looking to sign one more “big” for insurance. And speaking of Adelman, in my view he’s a top-five coach in the league.
Thus, even if Yao is not now his “in prime self”, and misses a number of games this year due to injury, in my view the Rockets are still essentially a shoe-in for the playoffs, and would still have a chance to crack into the top four for home court advantage. They are that deep and talented now.
August 13th, 2010 at 9:47 pm
Mr Henderson
I know it’s a long shot trade that would never happen. I felt it could be offset with Blairs upside, Tonys playmaking ability and dribble penetration vs. Oden the big gamble and Aldridge not being a good defender but a good scorer. For what it’s worth,(which would be Hollis’ opinion and practically nothing), he shows that the trade hurts both teams. But I would see it as a no brainer for the Spurs.
Dr Who loved the Yao analysis. The numbers don’t lie. When he is healthy he is amazing. I agree that he won’t be the same player but i hope i’m wrong.
On a lighter note this is way out there, and I’m not trying to jinx them, but I can see the Lakers dealing with a major injury this year. They’ve played through mid June the last 3 years and have been relatively healthy aside from Bynum. I’m not saying who it would be but without a Kobe or Pau we would be like a starving coyote licking his chops.
The site of Ron Artest getting a ring literally made me throwup in my mouth. I’m not one trying to live in a fantasy land praying for injuries on other teams either. I’m just saying, between extended seasons leading to a major injury, or Artest getting bored and doing something stupid, don’t be surprised if they hit their own proverbial bumps in the road this year.
August 14th, 2010 at 3:08 pm
Interesting that if you were to put Temple, Anderson, Neal, and Splitter on another Western Conf team they would be described in glowing terms of vast upside and potential. On the Spurs, just “hoped for talent destined to have minimal impact. Jordan Hill is described above as “Up and Coming Talent”. Blair who averages almost twice the points and over twice the rebounds is too short and should be traded. Players on the Spurs are always described as somehow inferior, and lacking in some manner. Even Splitter who while technically a rookie, even though he is a seasoned vet who has led teams to titles and has won MVP is talked about as being “bench fodder”. Spurs players get minimal respect, even from supposed Spurs fans.
August 14th, 2010 at 5:58 pm
GitErDun
August 14th, 2010 at 3:08 pm
“Interesting that if you were to put Temple, Anderson, Neal, and Splitter on another Western Conf team they would be described in glowing terms of vast upside and potential.”
Not by me they wouldn’t. Temple is an undrafted player that has had VERY LITTLE NBA action, and has spent most of his time in the D-League. Anderson’s a #20 pick, and as such the odds are that we are fortunate if he ends up some day as a regular rotation player (this does not mean that he could not “surprise” to the upside). Neal was undrafted and has bounced around Europe & the D-league in the 3 years since he left college. He’s clearly an unproven talent at the NBA level. Splitter has some pretty heady accomplishments against the best competition in Europe, but he also is not yet proven at the NBA level.
There’s reason for hope with these guys, but it is only wise to view these players as good prospects to some day become important role players (again, it is possible that one or more could quickly surprise to the upside), not as players that you can have a high level of confidence will produce in the NBA next season at some elevated, well-defined level. And such assessments should not change based on what team that they happen to play for.
“Jordan Hill is described above as “Up and Coming Talent”. Blair who averages almost twice the points and over twice the rebounds is too short and should be traded.”
Just to clarify, I am the one that characterized Jordan Hill of the Rockets as, “up and coming” (which I believe is an accurate characterization) in a previous post, but I’m not the one that had suggested trading Blair. In fact, if I had to list three untradeables on the Spurs it would be Duncan, Hill, and Blair. Blair does have a height “disability” that he will have to continue to work hard to compensate for, but I believe that he’ll become a VERY good player regardless. And of course, I certainly wasn’t comparing Blair to J. Hill in any of my references to them. That said, their basic stats per 36 minutes in their 1st season is not as diametrical as your characterization seemed to suggest:
Hill: 14.1 ppg., 10.1 rpg., 1.2 bpg.
Blair: 15.4 ppg., 12.7 rpg., .9 bpg.
In your comment above you appear to be making a broad generalization, yet the evidence appears to warrant a more narrow, and nuanced critique.
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