Friday, September 3rd, 2010...7:10 am
Tony Parker is 28
Earlier this summer, someone published a why-the-Spurs-will-stink preview that included the statement that Tony Parker was “past his prime” as part if its argument. NBA.com is currently running an article under the title, “These players could be looking at a big decline this season“. The article includes Tony Parker in its list of (potentially) declining stars, although its author takes a moderating approach in his discussion of Parker.
Meanwhile, Tony Parker has spent much of his summer working on his game with Spurs coach Chip Engelland, carefully following an intense summer regimen designed by the Spurs coaching staff.
Tony Parker is a 28 year old NBA All-Star heading into a contract year — talk of decline seems silly, at best.
Tony Parker is coming off a bad season, but it was also a season when he was hampered by injury from first to last, and those injuries were exacerbated by the emergence of George Hill. In other words, even when healthy, Parker’s role was shifting beneath his feet. It’s surprising he played as well as he did.
Players get injured. Numbers decline. That’s the way it goes. But when said players are 28 with only one subpar season in their history, it’s premature to park a hearse outside the practice facility. In fact, in the case of Parker, one could just easily put together an argument that his best basketball is ahead of him. If we’re identifying outliers in Parker’s career, last season comes complete with an “Outlier” badge pinned to its lapel.
2009-10 wasn’t a trend, it was an aberration. Prior to last season, the trend with Parker was up, up, up. Two season’s ago, he was one of the best players in the league.
Parker’s summer regiment is one of many indicators that the Spurs expect to improve from within this season. How hard is it to imagine Tony Parker, George Hill, DeJuan Blair, Garrett Temple and Alonzo Gee playing better basketball this season. Who isn’t expecting Blair and Hill to take the proverbial next step during the upcoming campaign?
And this without discussion of Tiago Splitter, James Anderson, Gary Neal and Richard Jefferson Year 2.
The Spurs are improved, except for the sobering reality that Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are a year older, and each of them was already an old man in basketball years. But even this hard truth works in Parker’s favor.
When needed, Parker is able to pick up the slack on offense. The Spurs may want him to assert himself early to prevent Duncan and Ginobili from carrying an unnecessarily heavy burden prior to the All-Star break.
There is also this: if Tony Parker comes screaming out of the gate, the Spurs will get better trade offers for their All-Star, 28 year old, former Finals MVP point guard. In short, Tony Parker is more likely to break out than decline this season. The smart bet says his October through February numbers will rival his career highs. It’s the one scenario in which everyone wins.
101 Comments
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:45 am
Let all the “trade Tony now” talk begin (again).
Happy B-Day TP!!
September 3rd, 2010 at 8:09 am
ITGuy,
I wasn’t trying to kick up a trade dust. I was just trying to point out that under every conceivable scenario, it’s in the Spurs/Parker’s best interest to let him get his alpha male on. And, more importantly, that talk of decline is silly.
September 3rd, 2010 at 8:40 am
Agree with you Tim. But if the devil’s advocate had a blog, he would point out that small point guards who don’t shoot threes and rely on speed tend to decline quicker, as do players who have been in the league since they were 18.
But you’re right, there’s plenty of reason for optimism too.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:18 am
Timothy Varner,
I agree with you that talk of decline is silly.
People have spent a lot of time commenting on how the Spurs should trade Parker and I disagree with them on that. I think he will get a contract extension and someday have his jersey retired (it’ll hang even if he does get traded or leaves the team) but, I don’t post my feelings on every story as the “trade TP” crowd seems to do, even after RC himself said that TP is not going anywhere.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:24 am
I Just think the years of Manu and Tony taking those hits going to the lane has taking affect on them. Tony had that bad hip last year which really limited him but even still he played tough. I think TP is a warrior and he’s very smart player. Also don’t forget this year he’s not playing international ball and working out with spurs coaching staff. It just tells me he’s commited and he’s a true pro. I mean all this trade talk, the improvement of George Hill and TP still keeps it pro. How could you not like that. Every year it’s the same the big three need to be healthy and it hasn’t happened for a long time, maybe that’s the front office’s biggest mistake. But I’m really excited about the young talent they’ve brought in the last three years to keep the hope for another championship alive. Go Spurs Go.
September 3rd, 2010 at 10:18 am
I just can’t wait to see what happens when duncan retires and see the BEASTLY numbers blair will put up, with splitter at center. We’ll be like the thunder for a year, and then back into contention, with tony leading the team with his veteranship. tony hill anderson blair splitter in three years, is gonna be a beastly lineup.
September 3rd, 2010 at 10:29 am
Tony Parker will retire a Spur, plain and simple.
Before last season, there was a ton of talk about the torch being passed from Tim to Tony, in that he would be the focus of the offence. Had Tony not had to fight with Plantar Faciaitis (sp?), I believe we would have seen career numbers.
Tony Parker has what it takes to win; Heart, Determination, Skill, and Prefessionalism. He is a proven CHAMPION and as shown in the 2008-2009 season, he can carry a team that doesnt have another go-to player (No Manu 3/4 of the season; Only a piece of Tim Duncan).
At the end of the day, TP is the best finisher under the rim, one of the fastest guys in the league with the ball in his hands, a professional, a leader, and most of all, a CHAMPION at heart. Barring injuries, I will say that Tony’s numbers look something like 22/7 with at least 33 mpg on 50%+/- from the field.
September 3rd, 2010 at 10:52 am
Anybody that would suggest Parker is in decline is a fool. He has a least three stellar seasons in front of him. That said, I doubt we can afford to keep him after this season. We’re going to need some more young, athletic talent and length on the front line with the continuing decline of TD. TP may need to be used for that, plus he himself might want to head somewhere like NY anyway.
September 3rd, 2010 at 11:00 am
I think the words you were looking for were “regimen” and “exacerbated.” Not trying to be all snooty and elitest, but these misuses bugged me a little.
September 3rd, 2010 at 11:37 am
I could not agree more, all the talk of TP’s decline is premature.
I don’t understand the trade TP talk. Why would the spurs think of trading a top 5 point guard? Pop and RC have indicated that they’re not interested in moving TP but this has not stoped the trade talk. If TP were to be traded, the spurs would most definitely be the looser in the trade, especially when you consider our closing championship window. Trading TP would be a devastating loss of corporate knowledge.
The TP and George Hill debate does not have to be an either/or debate. The Spurs can have both players and thrive.
I’m betting TP will bounce back and average 20+ ppg, 6+ apg and sign and extension mid-spring.
As currently constituted is this the most talented Spurs team ever? Or were the 2003 or 2005 Spurs teams more talented?
September 3rd, 2010 at 11:53 am
Parker is not on a decline. Though I do believe he has peaked. I do not believe he will improve upon what he already has done. And it would take a team with another all star caliber player on it for him to perform at the best he’s already performed.
If Parker were the only all star type of talent on another team…I would expect it to be difficult for him to repeat the mvp year he had with the Spurs.
Parker’s talent lends itself to creating for himself before being a distributor. Though his speed easily allows for such situations…it’s also easy to limit Parker from being effective by closing the lanes and forcing him to take bad shots and/or make errant passes.
Simply put…he’s still very one demensional in his play. He’ll have to improve in a couple of areas during the course of his career to not become “pass his prime”. But I agree with Jim Henderson. The time to get something of equal value for Parker might be before the end of this season when…like Mr. Varner eluded to… I’m sure he’s going to come out like gang busters early this season October through February and put up great numbers helping to disperse the burden placed upon Duncan and Ginobili.
But there might be Parker’s career statistics that may lend some credence to this report. And though it may not be skill decline that would warrant such a statement…there is proof that Parker can’t play an entire season without injury. Tony hasn’t managed to play a full season since 05-06 with the last 2 years having significant departure from an 82 game schedule. And the last time he played in 82 games was his sophmore season with the Spurs in 02-03.
Can he manage to stay healthy enough to last 82 games? If this trend (injury) continues I can see how that can equate to being past his prime. For what good is it for a team to have such a dynamic player if they can’t stay healthy to get you through the playoffs?
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:08 pm
i agree that parker will have a good season - good article.
btw, that finals mvp was pure crap - duncan should have won that. iirc, if you added their numbers for points, assists, and rebounds, tp is about the same as td. however, td’s defense was again under-rated, while parker was taking many possessions off.
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:29 pm
quincyscott,
No doubt. I should have caught both mistakes. Thanks.
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:41 pm
@ rob
“there is proof that Parker can’t play an entire season without injury.”
I wouldn’t go that far. I wouldn’t define a player’s durability by how many seasons he has played all 82 games. Really, what % of players actually plays all 82? I would guess it’s between 10 and 20% of all NBA players (and that still might be high).
I would define having played 72 games as pretty durable. In that case, TP has played at least 72 games in 7 out of 9 years (and one of those years, 07-08, he played 69).
I wouldn’t call TP injury-prone (he broke his finger last year - that’s not exactly an injury I worry about long term, as opposed to an ankle or knee). Is it a concern? Of course, especially because we rely so heavily on him. But Pop has done a pretty good job over the years managing minutes (see Manu and TD).
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:42 pm
Also…This may not be a popular observation…And I hope it not be true…but I find it odd that Duncan wasn’t on that list of players apt to have possible decline.
September 3rd, 2010 at 1:05 pm
“Also…This may not be a popular observation…And I hope it not be true…but I find it odd that Duncan wasn’t on that list of players apt to have possible decline.”
Indeed, considering that in most respects (minutes and games played being a notable exception) Duncan’s game has refused to decline much at all.
We were told going into last season to expect a drop-off from Tim. And beyond some grumblings about his quickness and screen and roll defense, the decline never materialized.
At some point age is going to catch up with Tim Duncan, but after last season it’s hard to say when.
September 3rd, 2010 at 1:35 pm
@Tyler
I would agree with you that playing in at least 72 games would not constitute concern.
But what is a trend since 05-06 is the inability to play at least 80 games at his young age. Parker physically breaks down because of the way he plays. That alone..as he ages…is going to be a trend if he does not improve in other areas. His body simply won’t be able to take it. And if his only attribute…which it is…is the speed at which he plays…that will decline each and every year from this point on.
05-06 Parker played in 80 games. 06-07 it declined to playing 77 games. 07-08 it was down to 69 games. 08-09 it increased slightly to 72 games. Last season, 09-10 56 games.
The trend is there. He won’t be getting any younger. He must improve in other areas of play in order to remain as significant as his past because his speed will not always be there and his body will not continue to take the abuse associated with his current style of play.
In that regards…in correlation to his current skill…we could possibly see a decline.
September 3rd, 2010 at 2:47 pm
vikombe
September 3rd, 2010 at 11:37 am
“As currently constituted is this the most talented Spurs team ever? Or were the 2003 or 2005 Spurs teams more talented?”
Definitely not. All of our teams between 1999 & 2005-2007 were more talented, with star players young and/or in their prime, and great, clutch role players.
Greyberger
September 3rd, 2010 at 1:05 pm
“At some point age is going to catch up with Tim Duncan, but after last season it’s hard to say when.”
Actually, on the defensive end their has been a noticeable decline, and defense has been a big part of TD”s greatness. Other than more difficulties guarding the pick & roll, his bpg. have tailed off considerably, dropping from an average of 2.5 bpg. between 2000 & 2006, to 1.5 bpg. last year, his career low.
rob
September 3rd, 2010 at 1:35 pm
“And if his only attribute…which it is…is the speed at which he plays…that will decline each and every year from this point on.”
No, I’m afraid you’re overstating your case concerning Parker’s skill-set/versatility, or lack thereof. He does a lot more out there other than just using his speed to get to the rim. I’m not going to bother listing them all, but just think about it for a moment. And all players have to adjust their games as they age. I believe Parker will be as successful as other all-star players in making such adjustments.
“05-06 Parker played in 80 games. 06-07 it declined to playing 77 games. 07-08 it was down to 69 games. 08-09 it increased slightly to 72 games. Last season, 09-10 56 games.”
There is a trend lower, in his last three years. But I think last year was an exception, with the broken hand. That injury’s not due to wear & tear. Thus, the trend is really in the direction of about 5-10 games lower than his average up until 06-07. As a result, I expect to see him up in the low 70′s again this year, and to average that over the next 3-5 years (needs to for the most part continue to reject international play opportunities).
September 3rd, 2010 at 2:59 pm
Jim Henderson
“No, I’m afraid you’re overstating your case concerning Parker’s skill-set/versatility, or lack thereof. He does a lot more out there other than just using his speed to get to the rim. I’m not going to bother listing them all, but just think about it for a moment. And all players have to adjust their games as they age. I believe Parker will be as successful as other all-star players in making such adjustments.”
I don’t think I overstated the fact that his speed is what makes him so good at the things he does. And let me make it clear that I love Parker’s game. I was one of the few when he first started playing for the Spurs that he would be an all-star when many thought he might only be versitile enough to play back up.
I too hope he can adjust his game. He’ll have to as the years go by. But make no mistake…his speed is what allows him to do what he does. The pounding he takes in the lane will take it’s toll quicker than anything else he does.
If he can develop some other attribute in his game that allows him to be as lethal as his speed…he’ll definately prolong his career and be a top player for years to come.
September 3rd, 2010 at 4:22 pm
I’ve seen some age performance analysis on wages of wins and a couple of other sites. The consensus seems to indicate that TP is past his prime … barely. Also, in the next several years after a players peak they decline very slowly until they hit their early 30s. So I’m not too worried about TPs performance last year. He was hampered by some injuries, but should return close to peak form this year.
September 3rd, 2010 at 5:05 pm
I’m of the opinion that the trade Tony contingent is being led and publicized by the NY Media who are longing to get some back the luster they haven’t had since Riley left. If you think about it, Other than talking about Madison Square Garden, what can one say about the Knicks that is positive. Bringing in Stoudamire was a good move, but him alone isn’t going to get them any shot at the title. You get an elite PG, then…you have the makings of a contender.
At the end of the day, I think it will be CP3 that makes the move to Manhattan and that TP will retire, when ready, just like the other 2/3rds of the Big Three will.
September 3rd, 2010 at 6:00 pm
rob
September 3rd, 2010 at 2:59 pm
“And if his only attribute…which it is…is the speed at which he plays……”
Rob, in response to this comment, you are indeed overstating your case. “Speed” is not the “only” attribute that TP has. It may be the main attribute that makes him an all-star, but TP would still be a very good player even if his speed was more “normal”. The fact is, he’s a better than average passer, ball-handler, shooter inside the 3 point line, finisher in traffic (speed or no speed), clutch player, “winner”, mental toughness, attitude, and “team” defender (for which he’s underrated). The two things for which he’s a bit below average is 3-point shooting & play-making (creator), and any other categories that I haven’t mentioned, he’s probably about average for an NBA level PG.
bduran
September 3rd, 2010 at 4:22 pm
In my view, TP will not begin to show gradual, yet noticeable decline until at least age 31-32. I expect him to, even with limited minutes (32 mpg. ?) to some extent because of Hill’s emergence, to get about 18.0 ppg. & 5.8 apg., which is right at his in prime averages. I don’t think he’s in decline at all yet, and therefore should still be pretty good trade value at the end of this year.
September 3rd, 2010 at 6:15 pm
Tony stays with the spurs. Plain and simple. We have the money to resign him. What are our options without him? George Hill is not a point guard. Look Deron Williams and Chris Paul will opt out and be traded to teams. Tony will stay because he knows we have a good chance of winning a championship. Unless he goes to the Lakers. I doubt that will happen. Tony will be the cornerstone of the future.
September 3rd, 2010 at 6:47 pm
I agree with you Patrick. I want to see Parker on the Spurs for years to come. He played well in the playoffs which everyone forgets for some reason?
September 3rd, 2010 at 6:54 pm
Jim Henderson
“It may be the main attribute that makes him an all-star, but TP would still be a very good player even if his speed was more “normal”. ”
If you’re saying he would still be an all star without his speed…I don’t agree. And I’m sure he would be no where near all star status if it wasn’t for his speed.
His speed (the danger of it) is what sets up his other attributes. If his speed were “normal”…teams could (and would) play him different. He would not be the Tony Parker we know now. And there’s a huge difference between being an all star and “very good”.
So his speed IS what gives him the opportunity to do other things. And I never said he couldn’t do other things…I just said he would need to improve in other areas once his speed starts to wain.
And as far as decline. I don’t think he is in decline as far as talent is concerned at this point. Read above and you will see I mentioned that.
Again…What I was pointing out was that his speed is what allows him to do what he does now. But the pace that he plays will start taking it’s toll sooner than later. And because of the toll his body will suffer from the pace he plays now,
he will have to excell another way/avenue/style of play in order to hopefully maintain all star status in the near future (after 2 years?)
And again…the trend does not lie…he has become less available throughout an entire season over the past 4 years. Last year being an anomoly…but none the less a downward trend for being available throughout an entire season.
I would even surmise that if Tony should miss significant games again this year…his trade value declines in the eyes of other teams. Let’s hope he has a great (minimal injury) season.
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:11 pm
I just have a random, off topic question.
Where the hell is Graydon?
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:21 pm
I might be the biggest Spurs fan, but yes, he past his prime.. his prime was all the rings he got us
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:23 pm
It would be great if somebody could find Tony’s shot percentages based on penetration layups and floaters….jump shots…and 3 point.
I know his 3 point percentage has not been above 30% over the past 3 to 4 years.
And I may not be recollecting properly…but I don’t think he is that good of a jump shooter percentage wise.
So again…if that be true…if it were not for his speed…where else would he excell in percentages that would place him above average?
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:34 pm
LMAO
Speed and quickness are nice, but not the reason that Tony Parker is an NBA beast. Its what he has inside.
Tony has killer instinct. That unwaivering desire to conquer. This is the stuff that true players are made of. The Jordan’s and Wades of the BB world.
Parker is a keeper and I, for one, hope the Spurs keep him in thier plans. He is a winner.
As for Duncan declining….Get Serious!
Even though this guy is battling bad knees and high mileage, Tim is still putting up awsome numbers on a consistent basis. He is still a beast in the low post. He will be in better shape this year and hopefully have some help in the low block. Huge difference maker if Splitter can actually play with the big boys and Coach Brainiac Popovich figures out how to properly utilize D. Blair…
That lil 13-9 game that Splitter put up againt Chandler, Odom, and company means nothing.
Once we see him against the BEASTS….The likes of Garnett, David West, Carmello, Dirk, Shaq, Yao, etc…then we can paint the picture. Then we will know if this kid has the moxy to stand up to the NBA’s elite Centers and Power Forwards and hold his own.
Until then, He’s just another unproven rookie who has yet to play an NBA game. Keep all fingers and toes crossed.
Going to be an interesting season for sure………..
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:14 pm
BALLHOG
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:34 pm
“That lil 13-9 game that Splitter put up againt Chandler, Odom, and company means nothing.”
You’re certainly entitled to that opinion, but both of those players are on Team USA for a reason. You can’t simply ignore his nice performance against a good team only because you don’t think it should count. Splitter held his own against guys who are getting paid a hell of a lot more than he will be paid next year.
“Once we see him against the BEASTS….The likes of Garnett, David West, Carmello, Dirk, Shaq, Yao, etc…then we can paint the picture.”
I agree that it would be interesting to see Splitter play against bigger and better competition (even though we would take Odom and Chandler on our team in a heartbeat), but many of these players you named are either WAY past their prime (Shaq, Garnett) are over rated (David West) or won’t even match up against Splitter in ANY game (Carmello).
rob
September 3rd, 2010 at 6:54 pm
“His speed (the danger of it) is what sets up his other attributes. If his speed were “normal”…teams could (and would) play him different. He would not be the Tony Parker we know now.”
I agree 100%. If Parker were blessed with only average NBA PG speed, then he would be an average NBA PG. He doesn’t have a deep ball nor does he possess any semblance of a post of game. Sure Parker has other attributes that are of high quality just like Jim said. However, all those (like you said) are set up by his ability (or threat) of him blowing by his opponent.
Patrick
September 3rd, 2010 at 6:15 pm
“Tony will be the cornerstone of the future.”
If Tony were 24 years old, I would agree. However, at this point, Tony is the not the future, but the present. His best years are right now, not 3-5 years in the future.
My final analysis on Parker is simply this: If the team is struggling come late January and Parker’s trade value is up, I would expect him to be moved for 2-3 good young pieces. My thoughts are mixed on Parker. On one hand, for nestalgic reasons, I hate to lose him. I also believe he has 2 or maybe even 3 years left of playing high level baskeball. However, I don’t want this to turn into a Stoudamire situation where he has 2-3 prime years left and we have him signed to a max level contract for 5 years. Let somebody else overpay for Parker and mortgage their future for him (if his contract demands are outrageous), just not us.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:55 pm
rob
September 3rd, 2010 at 6:54 pm
“If you’re saying he would still be an all star without his speed…I don’t agree.”
No, I was saying that he would still be “a very good player” without top-notch speed, but not an all-star.
“And there’s a huge difference between being an all star and “very good”.”
No, there’s not a “huge” difference, but it is meaningful, or perhaps even significant. In fact TP would probably still start on the Spurs even if his speed was dialed back a notch. It would probably force him to work harder on his shooting (develop more range) & defense though.
“…..And I never said he couldn’t do other things…..”
Well, you did say this:
“….And if his only attribute…which it is…is the speed at which he plays…”
Now, maybe you didn’t mean it that way, but that assertion clearly suggests that Tony’s “only” attribute is his speed.
“I would even surmise that if Tony should miss significant games again this year…his trade value declines in the eyes of other teams.”
I agree with that, but I assume that he’s focused on getting in top shape during the off-season, with no international play, and heading into a contract year. I expect TP will play at least 70-75 games this year. I think he’s plateaued in the low to mid 70′s as opposed to the mid to upper 70′s in games played, and that should continue for the next 3-5 years. I do expect his minutes to be limited to about 32 per game, about 2-3 mpg. less than during his peak years, in an effort to preserve his body because of the way he plays.
rob
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:23 pm
“I know his 3 point percentage has not been above 30% over the past 3 to 4 years.”
Four years ago it was (not for the past three). 2006-07 was actually his career year in threes, at 39.5%, but he only put up 38 attempts. His attempts are way down since 2004-05.
“And I may not be recollecting properly…but I don’t think he is that good of a jump shooter percentage wise.”
I don’t have the data in front of me, but that aspect of his game has become much more reliable during the second half of his career. I think he shoots a pretty good percentage on jumpers inside 20 feet. Not great, but pretty good.
“……if it were not for his speed…where else would he excell in percentages that would place him above average?”
There’s a lot more to a player than just basic stats. Thus, from my previous post:
“The fact is, he’s a better than average passer, ball-handler, shooter inside the 3 point line, finisher in traffic (speed or no speed), clutch player, “winner”, mental toughness, attitude, and “team” defender (for which he’s underrated).”
BALLHOG
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:34 pm
“As for Duncan declining….Get Serious!”
He has in fact declined on the defensive end, in particular. You do remember TD in his prime, right? He cannot guard the pick & roll as well as he used to, and he cannot block shots anywhere near where he used to. Last year he blocked HALF the shots he blocked in his best year, 8 years ago, when he was in his prime. Even during our last title run 3 years ago in 2006-07 he had 40% more blocks than he did last year, which was his career low. TD can still play. Nobody’s questioning that. But he is indeed in decline because at his best he was at such a high level.
Plus he simply doesn’t have the stamina now. He’s hampered by that chronic knee problem. We can’t go to him 40 mpg as our go-to guy anymore. Those days are over. We tried to do it just in the short stretch of games during the playoffs against the Mavs and it burned him out. He played heavy minutes against the Mavs, played pretty well, and then his minutes & performance tailed off more against the Suns. The sustained intensity level was just too much for his body to hold up under for very long. That’s why we need to still improve our front line. We’re going to have to win by committee on the front line. We’re not going to be able to go to Duncan a lot, or consistently night in and night out, including during the playoffs. I would plan on limiting his minutes to 28 mpg. during the regular season, and 33-34 mpg. during the playoffs. We cannot afford to burn him out in the middle of a playoff run because we need him to be able to remain efficient in several aspects of the game when he is on the floor. He can still be very valuable for us if we use him in this fashion. But you can’t do things like play Blair 9 mpg. in the playoffs like Pop did last year. We’re dead if we don’t deliberately game-plan to spread the minutes of our front line in the playoffs. It’s got to be win by committee. The days of Duncan domination night in and night out are over.
September 4th, 2010 at 3:34 am
Jim Henderson
“Now, maybe you didn’t mean it that way, but that assertion clearly suggests that Tony’s “only” attribute is his speed.”
Yeah. I should have stated that phrase better.
Tony does have the intangibles you mentioned.
But his speed is his dominant attribute. I just haven’t seen him improve significantly enough in other areas that allows me to believe that if his speed should wain that he would be a better than an average to possibly really good pg in this league.
Thus my belief he has peaked. Still a top 7 PG in this league at this time. But his 180 lb. frame cannot take the constant abuse it endures from the way he plays and expect to hold up much longer than another 2 to 3 years without seeing noticable decline in it’s ability to perform at the speed we’re accustomed to watching or have the ability to sustain.
September 4th, 2010 at 7:59 am
If it weren’t for George Hill, TP would be playing for France again this year.
Why would as one of you said “In a trade we would be the loser”. Why would the Spurs come out on the short end of a trade IF TP is really as valuable a player as many say he is??
September 4th, 2010 at 8:07 am
ok cmon, cut the crap…
the only reason TP9 is that good is his speed
don’t you remember how much he sucked last year when he couldn’t run ????
September 4th, 2010 at 8:10 am
If he goes anywhere, my guess (and also my choice) would be to see Parker go to the Nets. The Nets in the last 3 days have stated that only Lopez is untradable. That leaves Derrick Favors and draft choices. I’d take Favors and a 1st round draft choice, and whatever else makes the money work out.
September 4th, 2010 at 8:48 am
Alright, crunched some #s.
According to the NBA Hotspots page, in 2008/09 TP shot a combined 46% for 2 pointers (roughly) 15 ft out or more.
In 2009/10, TP shot 36% from the same area during the regular season and 37% during the playoffs (which is surprising to me since he seemed to have performed well during the playoffs, but I guess it wasn’t his mid-range game that improved).
It’s hard to tell how much a decline in speed would effect Tony’s midrange game (and his teardrop/floaters) because the threat of his speed makes his defender play off of him which of course opens up the midrange aspect of his game. One could hypothesize that Tony playing with plantar fasciitis last year could be similar to how he would play with diminished speed, but playing through injury has got to have a different mental impact on one’s game than aging.
Of course Tony had nothing resembling a mid-range game early on in his career, so it’s not inconceivable that he will continue to add to his artillery as he loses his main weapon.
Side notes (I haven’t posted in a while, so forgive me if these are tagential):
As for TD, bless his heart, his offensive numbers look amazingly similar last year as they do every year and in some cases are even more efficient (if my memory serves correctly), but let’s not forget that he was double teamed SIGNIFICANTLY less last year so his offensive numbers should have gone UP actually (except for maybe his assists) if he were indeed not declining. And of course he struggled to defend the pick and roll and was usually so exhausted by the 4th qtr that his offensive production would drop off drastically and of course he couldn’t hit a damn free throw.
Jim’s right, get Amundson. We need more depth up front and more rest for Timmy.
As for my pick for a backup wing defender? I’m going to go out on a limb and say Lance Thomas from Duke. Undrafted and no offensive game to speak of, but a smart, quick defender with good size that can be had for practically nothing. Chip would just have to teach him how to hit that corner 3 (he already knows how to pass). As is, I think he could be similar to a Tony Allen or a Thabo Sefalosha. Of course I’ve haven’t heard anyone mention this guy since March, so what do I know…
September 4th, 2010 at 9:08 am
Parker will come out like a bat out of hell this year. Contract years will do that to you. Parkers trade value will never be higher than it will be for this year. Either we ride with parker and commit to him long term, or we trade him for multiple pieces. With Hill and Colo developing overseas it may be time to consider getting talent at other positions. I would not be opposed to trading Parker to the Nets for Brook Lopez. That would give us a solid front line for years to come. Splitter could develop and be duncans successor. Front line rotation in the future would be Splitter, Lopez and Blair. That would be a great front court, and we would have Hill in the backcourt. Also having lopez now would give us a very formidable frontcourt that would be tops in the league. Ill take duncan, lopez, splitter, and blair. Im not saying the nets will do that trade, so I dont want anyone to have a hissy fit over it. Just mentioning what I would want back in exchange for Parker.
September 4th, 2010 at 11:09 am
Gary
September 4th, 2010 at 8:07 am
“ok cmon, cut the crap…
the only reason TP9 is that good is his speed
don’t you remember how much he sucked last year when he couldn’t run ????”
Number one, he didn’t “suck” last year. He was injured. Number two, nobody is disagreeing that his “speed” makes him “all-star caliber”. But TP certainly does not suck, even with less speed. That’s ridiculous.
September 4th, 2010 at 12:52 pm
Parker is young and has been improving every year. He just had alot of injurys last year. Like it often happens, he is worth more to his current team than to any other because the fans have an attachment to him after all these years which means ticket sells. Ginobili, same thing. No other team apparently was willing to pay him 40 except the Spurs. He was worth that to the Spurs who will more than make that up on tickets alone, not to mention wins. Breaking up the core of a this dynasty wouldn’t be prudent. They didn’t break up Bird, mchale and Parish until he was in his mid fortys. It might be the same thing with the Spurs. Another thing, the vintage core of this dynasty attracts other good players and also fans.
September 4th, 2010 at 2:39 pm
Why does everyone love TP…. If we trade him we can win now….. if we keep him its another year in the HoF carrer of TD wasted on the worlds Man cursh of the little Frenchmen…….. Hill is a better fit…. PERIOD. he can play without the ball and allow RJ and Manu become more of a focus…… look at TP in his prime. HE is a volume shooter who can’t hit 3′s, shoot free throws, or get And 1′s…… Why do we need him… We have Manu and Rj who are better at all phases of the game. If RJ takes the 17 shots a game TP takes, he will get 5-10 more points a game than TP……. PERIOD….. thats why anyone with half a brain wants to see TP gone for a couple of really good role players that can round out our team and stop letting TD’s title chasing dream die slowly
September 4th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
anonymous,
“Another thing, the vintage core of this dynasty attracts other good players and also fans.”
Regarding good players…Maybe 3 years ago. Not today.
We’ll have to see what the new core of young “role” players the team has. This admin has always been able to find diamonds in the rough. It’s probalby why they have guaranteed or given extended guaranteed contracts to who they have now.
I mentioned this earlier in another title. The Spurs may be planning for the near future now. Having secured some young and promising role players will allow them at the time of Duncan and Ginobili’s retirement to focus more in acquiring one or two franchise type players and already having a core of support to help entice that/those types of players.
September 4th, 2010 at 3:44 pm
Sorry for some of the spelling on some words to be dislexic. I have a tendacy to do that every now and then.
September 4th, 2010 at 4:02 pm
The Beat Counselor
September 4th, 2010 at 8:48 am
“According to the NBA Hotspots page, in 2008/09 TP shot a combined 46% for 2 pointers (roughly) 15 ft out or more.
….In 2009/10, TP shot 36% from the same area during the regular season….”
I looked on HotSpots at just the last regular season, 2009-10, and only looked at shooting percentages between the second and third ring (for the other top-ten ranked PG’s), which correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that area borders 15 feet out to 22 feet, just inside the 3-point line. For TP alone, I averaged his shooting percentage between 15-22 feet over 3 years (2006, 2007, 2008-09), because you can’t use last year as a valid comparison due to his chronic foot problems, and you also can’t use just his “career year” in 2008-09. Here’s what I found for ten of the best PG’s in the league (I left out rookies):
Chris Paul - 89/188 = 47.3%*
Steve Nash - 129/277 = 46.6%
Derrick Rose - 216/488 = 44.3%
Deron Williams - 119/272 = 43.8%
Tony Parker - 478/1121 = 42.6%
Chauncey Billups - 77/190 = 40.5%
Mo Williams - 97/241 = 40.2%
Jason Kidd - 40/105 = 38.1%
Jameer Nelson - 62/164 = 37.8%
Rajon Rondo - 53/150 = 35.3%
* probably a career year for Paul in shooting percentage before his season ending injury.
In my view, ranking 5th in the league out of the top ten PG’s, means that the mid-range jumper is clearly a strength of Tony Parker’s. A lot of these other PG’s use quickness to get open for their mid-range jumper as well (Rose, Rondo, Paul, Nelson, M. Williams), or they get open in transition or a motion offense. Parker is not dead losing some of his speed anymore than many of the other better PG’s in the league. And Parker has more intangibles than most. I still say that we probably need to seriously consider trading TP, but certainly the case can be made that he’s worth some good pieces back. Also, TP will not get as good of a new contract unless the Spurs are satisfied with what they can get in a sign & trade (bird rights advantages).
anonymous
September 4th, 2010 at 12:52 pm
“Breaking up the core of a this dynasty wouldn’t be prudent.”
I disagree. The “dynasty”, as you put it, is over. We need to get some more young talent for one or more of the big three while we can.
“They didn’t break up Bird, mchale and Parish…..”
That was a mistake in my view.
spursfanbayarea
September 4th, 2010 at 9:08 am
“I would not be opposed to trading Parker to the Nets for Brook Lopez.”
I agree, but I’m not as sanguine as you appear to be without Parker. I think we will need to upgrade at the PG as well. Also, a straight up trade might not offset properly because of the imbalance in salaries.
How about Parker, Splitter, & Gee, for Harris, Lopez, & T. Williams.
Harris would keep us in pretty good shape PG-wise (they would have Farmar to back-up TP), and Terrence Williams is a poor man’s Iggy with upside still remaining (but they have Travis Outlaw in front of him, plus their 1st round pick, Damion James), and he could also solve our back-up SF issue.
Without TP signing a 3-4 year extension, NJ would not do this deal, in my view.
September 4th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
@Jim Henderson
The trade you offered sounds great. I would do that trade in a second. And if we are just speaking hypothetically then yes its great. If we are speaking about realistic trades, then I don’t think it would happen. IMO it is heavily favored to the spurs. That trade nets us 2 proven starters for 1 proven starter and a potential starter for splitter. And as you have posted previously you do not believe that splitter will necessarily translate to a starter in this league. Also throwing in Gee for Williams is also heavily balanced toward the spurs. If the spurs were offered that trade, I would jump for joy! As you point out they would not do the trade without an extension from parker. It would also put the Nets into a complete rebuild mode and at this stage I don’t think parker would sign an extension to be with them. But I like your suggestion, unfortunatley I do not think it is realistic.
September 4th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
Jim Henderson
“How about Parker, Splitter, & Gee, for Harris, Lopez, & T. Williams.”
I can’t see giving up more for less. Especially if we don’t know enough about Splitter. That said…I don’t see the Nets giving up Lopez for the same reason.
You are right Jim when mentioning ad nauseum about acquiring a player like Amundson. This team does not need a complete make over. It needs a couple of vital parts/role players. A viable backup SF and a specifically talented Big to be exact.
I know I have mentioned a few trade scenarios over the past month involving Parker. But as I look at this deeper…I can see the Spurs standing pat with more of an ability to get what they want for the future than making a trade at this time.
The talent they have acquired are not going to be franchise players. But they do have high potential at being prominent role players.
Say Tony doesn’t decide to be a Spur after this year. That’s 13 million dollars the Spurs have to attract another franchise type of player. Say the CBA limits teams and players to earning less than they currently garnish. That means the Spurs have even more financial lee way to sign such talent.
Duncan retires after 11-12…and that gives the Spurs financial utopia depending on the new CBA.
I think the Spurs are looking much further ahead than what many of us are hoping regarding the here and now. And the here and now doesn’t look so bad with Parker, Ginobili and Duncan if any two of the young players develop into above average to really good players in this league.
Does it mean they have an above average chance of contending for the title now? It’s the gamble they obviously are taking with who they have now. That said…another security player at one of those positions you and I have mentioned would be the best bet. And perhaps before the season begins..this team and it’s fans will get so lucky to have that happen. But I contend the Spurs are rebuilding…Just opposite in the way we think they need to rebuild.
Have the role players already established…and when the time comes…have the resources and role talent to surround one or two NEW franchise players when our current franchise players retire.
September 4th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
Tony might have a year, maybe two, before he starts his decline. He is absolutely not worth $14-15 Mil/ yr for 4-5 years. I love what Tony has done for the Spurs, but let’s not let emotions cloud business decisions.
Maybe, he’ll want less money than I think. Actually, I hope he does. I hope he’ll “settle” for a 4 yr $40 Mil contract and stays in SA. That would be 1-2 years of peak Tony and a couple more years of declining Tony. Fair contract considering what he’s meant to the Spurs during the championship years. Anything more than that and he burdens the Spurs.
BTW, Tony is not a good ball handler; He is an average ball handler at best. Sorry guys, but that is an overestimation.
September 4th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
@rob
Just because Tony parkers contract expires, it doesnt mean that we have that cap space to sign other players. You have to remember that teams are allowed to exceed the soft cap to keep players with their bird rights. Just like this year when Jefferson opted out we did not have his 15 million dollars off the books to go after the max players. Just to clarify your point on open cap space. Next year we still have duncan at 21million, ginobilli 13 million , jefferson 8, splitter 3, blair 1 , g.hill 2, anderson 1.4, mcdysess 5. That alone puts us close to the cap. If Parker were to walk we would probably have 4 million of cap space on current CBA. The next CBA may be more strict with a hard cap and smaller cap. If you want to get a franchise player with his 13 million you need to do a sign and trade to acquire such players. Or pray that we get another duncan/ robinson in the lottery. Much more likely to get the player you want with a sign and trade.
@Lenneezz
Being that parker is in his peak at 28. I do not believe he will settle for a short contract which will be his last generous contract under the current CBA. Secondly he will not take a large pay cut to stay with the spurs. Parker is 28 years old and will be looking for a 5-6 year contract with possible opt outs. Ginobilli at 33 was able to get a 3 year 39 million dollar deal. Parker who is 5 years younger will want at minimum same money but probably throw on a few years. If you do not believe parker is worth that money then you should hope for a trade of tony parker while his trade value will be at his highest.
September 4th, 2010 at 10:24 pm
Open question to the forum. What about a trade of Parker and Splitter for Carmelo Anthony? Any takers on that proposition? The numbers work in the ESPN trade machine. Carmelo isnt happy with Denver and would welcome a trade to a winner. Splitter would get to play with country man Nene, and Denver would get all star pg in return. Granted this would drastically change the makeup and system of the spurs. But would anyone be open to it? Dont really know if parker would accept an extension to denver(therefore dont know how realistic the trade is), but would be fun to discuss if people would do the deal if offered.
September 5th, 2010 at 12:58 am
spursfanbayarea
September 4th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
“But I like your suggestion, unfortunatley I do not think it is realistic.”
No question the deal I suggested is on the optimistic side of the spectrum. Avery Johnson would have to REALLY like Parker (and get a long-term extension), and be confident that Splitter can be an effective starter at the center position, with Petro & Zoubek in the back-up role.
Parker, Farmar
Morrow, Ross
Outlaw, James
Murphy, Favors
Splitter, Petro
Lenneezz
September 4th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
“BTW, Tony is not a good ball handler; He is an average ball handler at best.”
He is an “above average ball-handler”, no question. You must be confusing “ball-handling” with creating/passing off the dribble, but they are two different things. If this is not the reason for the above assertion, I’d like you to tell me who on the above list of the better PG’s in the league is a “BETTER ball-handler” than TP. Not Mo Williams; not Billups; not Rose; not Rondo, and not Nelson. And not many other guards in the league, for that matter, and that clearly makes him above average. TP doesn’t make a lot of fancy moves off the dribble, but he’s a very solid ball-handler, even under pressure.
spursfanbayarea
September 4th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
“If you want to get a franchise player with his 13 million you need to do a sign and trade to acquire such players. Or pray that we get another duncan/ robinson in the lottery. Much more likely to get the player you want with a sign and trade.”
Yes, that’s essentially correct.
spursfanbayarea
September 4th, 2010 at 10:24 pm
“Open question to the forum. What about a trade of Parker and Splitter for Carmelo Anthony? Any takers on that proposition?”
First of all, are we in essence exchanging one year rentals of TP & Melo in this deal? Is that the purpose? If so, I don’t see the point, particularly for Denver because of the overlap with TP & Billups. And I don’t really like the idea of giving up Splitter to just have Anthony here for one year. As far as I’m concerned, a deal like this could only work if Billup’s was put into the deal (with additional piece(s) from the Spurs), and both Parker & Anthony were amenable to signing long-term extensions with their respective new teams.
September 5th, 2010 at 10:44 am
@Jim
Yes it was meant to be with extensions(I should have been clearer). In my post I put up the statement that I dont know how likely parker would do an extension to denver. But the scenario ideally would be both putting up extensions.
Realistically you are probably right in that they would want to get rid of billups. But I dont believe they would absolutely have to. Billups has a team option after this season. So he could be used to acquire other talent as a salary dump which is the rage these days. If nuggets did trade melo, they could use billups as a trade chip to surround parker with other players.
It would gut our team to take on billups and melo. 31 million of cap space at current salaries. We could let billups go at the end of the year, but then we would have sacrificed all of our key young role players. Unless they were willing to take back richard jefferson and matt bonner.
Or we would have to hope we could trade him for some other pieces for a team looking to get rid of some long term contracts. But that would leave the team learning to play with 3 new starters in a year and that usually doesnt produce championships(Celtics were exception).
If we are not able to get any suitable trades, then in essence we are just left with duncan ginobilli and melo and a bunch of cba players. Now if duncan and ginobilli were on the right side of 30 it would be a risk worth taking. But thats not our reality.
Now the scenario if we could just trade one year rentals of parker and garbage for melo for a one year rental I would definetly consider that. It would in essence put us much closer to a championship in duncans and ginobillis closing window. And if melo wanted to leave at the end of the year, he would have to do a sign and trade to get max contract. That big 20 million dollar trade exception can be used to fill out the roster and would be larger than a trade exception gained from letting parker (roughly 14-15million)go. But you are right we can not include splitter for just a one year rental.
Trades are so complicated its no wonder they barely ever happen.
Trade Scenario
Parker, Bonner, Jefferson, McDyess for Billups and Melo?
Would you do that?
Or
Parker McDyess for Melo as one year rentals?
September 5th, 2010 at 11:03 am
Jim Henderson
“Just to clarify your point on open cap space. Next year we still have duncan at 21million, ginobilli 13 million , jefferson 8, splitter 3, blair 1 , g.hill 2, anderson 1.4, mcdysess 5. That alone puts us close to the cap.”
Got it. Underestand it. What I’m saying is that after Duncan/Ginobili there will be tons of cap space to attract one or possibly two franchise type players. And if the Spurs fill their roster now with prominent role players on the cheap…when that time comes…it would be attractive to a franchise type player to want to sign with the Spurs being the pieces of the puzzle will already be established rather than waiting 3 to 4 years to build around that player. The duration of some of our younger player’s contracts certainly seem to point in that direction.
With regards to Parker…I was eluding to getting his financial worth now if he wants to exit San Antonio after this season.
September 5th, 2010 at 11:33 am
Absolutely and without question i would not trade any of our top 4 players for Melo. He’s a good scorer and is no better than RJ at anything else. And if you look at the efficiency %’s, he’s not significantly better than RJ, although some of that is no doubt because he is the main option on his team. I still wouldnt do it. Let him and CP3 go to NY with Ama’re or start their own club in NJ, i’m not interested in either, thank you.
September 5th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
NO NO ME-LO!!! Talk about over-rated. His career shooting average is about 3.5% BELOW the league average.
September 5th, 2010 at 1:08 pm
@rob
You quoted me but directed the comment to Jim. You are correct that we will have cap space once duncan and ginobili are off the books. But they dont come off the books together until 2013-2014 season. And at that time george hill will also be on a bigger contract, not to mention if there is an extension to parker. Maybe there will be cap space for one max player. You can do what the heat did and renounce everyone and then have money to do two max players. But you have to go through at least a few losing seasons with that approach.
When was the last time a superstar franchise player went to a small market team as a free agent?
The strength of the spurs front office has been realizing they were lucky with the lottery and surrounding the two franchise players with good role players around them and doing a good job with draft and stash.
What superstar do you have in mind coming to spurs? Durant is locked up, so is D. Howard, Lebron, Wade all locked up. Small market teams are always at a disadvantage when going after free agents. Big name players end up on small market teams either by draft or a trade. Please give an example of a young superstar you think will come to the spurs?
I love the spurs, but as far as a city. It can not compete with the likes of a NY, CHI, Miami, LA when recruiting franchise type players. The franchise type players want the best of both worlds.
If you want blow the whole thing up and go the lottery route like the thunder, you have a better chance getting the players you want. But you would have trade away the core of the spurs and get lots of picks, not to mention get lucky with the draft picks and lottery. For every duncan and robinson, there are many more kwame browns, olowakandis.
Last point, this generation of star players. They dont want to do it on their own. They will want to team up with another star players. Unfortunatly the leagues is going to pretty soon be 4 super teams and a bunch of scrubs.
September 5th, 2010 at 1:15 pm
This article should exist. In the last 10 yrs the best point guards have been Derek Fisher and Tony Parker. Tony Parker has taken out every great point guard of this era to win 3 rings and is a finals MVP. Which he deserved when he put the team on his back to win that Finals(im tired of clowns denying the MVP he earned). Why is anyone questioning if he’ll be great? We should be thanking him and Manu for taking the summer off. Anywhere that dude(healthy) goes they will make the playoffs. straight up, if they trade him for anything less than a Chris Paul, the Spurs wont get anymore rings. I think the one thing between the Spurs and another ring is 1 more big man. Mycdyess is useless now, Blair is too small, Bonner is a scrub. Even if Splitter is all that, they need another good big body.
September 5th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
spursfanbayarea
September 5th, 2010 at 10:44 am
“Now the scenario if we could just trade one year rentals of parker and garbage for melo for a one year rental I would definetly consider that. It would in essence put us much closer to a championship in duncans and ginobillis closing window.”
Yes, WE would consider it, but Denver probably wouldn’t. They are not really helped that much by having TP AND Billups, and would be hurt by not having Melo.
“Trade Scenario
Parker, Bonner, Jefferson, McDyess for Billups and Melo?
Would you do that?
Or
Parker McDyess for Melo as one year rentals?”
I would be open to both of those, but again I don’t think Denver would be.
SpursfanSteve
September 5th, 2010 at 11:33 am
“Absolutely and without question i would not trade any of our top 4 players for Melo. He’s a good scorer and is no better than RJ at anything else.”
You’re underrating Melo. He’s one of the best scorers in the entire league, and that’s not all he does.
GitErDun
September 5th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
Please avoid making stats up. Melo career FG% is essentially AT the league average:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2010.html
That’s a big difference from being “3.5% BELOW the average.”
September 5th, 2010 at 5:53 pm
Great article on ‘visualizing shot selection by position’ at hardwood paroxysm:
http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2010/09/02/nba-hd-visualizing-shot-selection-by-position/#comments
Fascinating to see that George Hill’s shot selection is that of a contemporary prototypical point guard.
September 5th, 2010 at 9:49 pm
“He is an “above average ball-handler”, no question. You must be confusing “ball-handling” with creating/passing off the dribble, but they are two different things.”
Well Jim, we have different definitions of ball handling. A very very basic example is when a kid is taught to dribble he is told to always keep his head up. The reason a young player is taught to do this exemplifies what a ball handler is; Court awareness, keeping your teammates involved, etc…
Passing off the dribble is part of ball handling, imo. Keeping court awareness & knowing how to dribble so that one can pass in any direction. This is all part of ball handling.
How many times have you seen Tony do a cross over dribble? I’m talking about a traditional cross over. How many times have you seen Tony beat a man with a behind the back or between the legs dribble? How many times have you seen Tony do a start and stop dribble to beat a man?
Compare that total with
How many times have you seen Tony try to explode past his man with raw speed? He slows his done, looks at the hoop like he’s considering a jumper and then put his inside shoulder down and
accelerates past his defender.
September 6th, 2010 at 5:39 am
spursfanbayarea
Criminy. My appologies to both you and Jim for the misdirected quote.
“What superstar do you have in mind coming to spurs? Durant is locked up, so is D. Howard, Lebron, Wade all locked up. Small market teams are always at a disadvantage when going after free agents. Big name players end up on small market teams either by draft or a trade. Please give an example of a young superstar you think will come to the spurs?”
Howard is not locked up.
http://www.realgm.com/src_freeagents/2013/
Deron Williams and Chris Paul are unrestricted as well. Of course so will be Splitter and Blair.
And I understand the nomenclature of small market teams when it comes to attracting franchise type players. But San Antonio is a bit different than your average small market team when it comes to proven success.
Of course this is all hypothetical. But if the Spurs can acquire over the next two seasons a strong base of role players locked in for an extended time when these options become available in the summer of 2013…you have a team with the talent and winning history already solidified to attract 1 or 2 franchise type players.
As far as your point about a team having to go through several seasons of losing record to rebuild. This duration too could conceivably be reduced for reasons I’ve already mentioned. 2012-2013 looks to be the worse year for the Spurs. Duncan and Ginobili will be way past their prime or retired. I would surmise that to be a losing season. But that too will be beneficial to the Spurs if it builds a solid core of role players.
The Spurs, at the end of the 2012-2013 season could very well have the best of both worlds in it’s ability to have a high draft selection and financial flexability to secure a franchise type player.
Thus continuing a long tradition of success and relevence in the nba.
September 6th, 2010 at 9:58 am
@rob
You are right that currently D. Howard will be a free agent in 2013. But we dont know what the new cba will be like. Or will he sign an extension. There have been rumors that they may allow for a franchise tag similar to the nba. Also as we have learned this summer, just because you have cap space doesnt guarantee you will get the big names. Even big market teams missed out on the super stars. Chi, ny, nj, and la all missed out on lebron. And if you clear up that much space and miss out then you have to dole out contracts to crappy players. League minimum is 43 million team spending. Look what happened to nets, they had to overpay average players like farmar and outlaw to get to that 43 after creating the space.
The spurs are not your typical small market team because they as I stated before they got lucky in the lottery and were smart enough to surround them with proper talent and draft and stash. Have you noticed that the spurs have not been able to sign any prominent free agents during the duncan era. That was a championship caliber team and we were only able to surround duncan with good role players. Such as barry, horry. What happens if in 2013 we get a top pick and get a kwame brown. That could set us back years. The spurs had cap space before and did go after a big name free agent before. We tried to go after jason kidd. He chose to stay in jersey rather than come to san antonio. At that time we also went after Jermaine Oneal at that time an all star big man. He also turned down the spurs. So if we got turned down when we were championship caliber team with cap space. How do you think we will get a big name when we just have potential? Unfortunatley being small market does hurt the spurs. Which makes it all the more impressive that they were able to put together 4 title teams. In last 30 years the spurs are the only small market champions. So we have to appreciate what the spurs have done and realize how remarkable it was. Go Spurs Go.
September 6th, 2010 at 10:30 am
Lenneezz
September 5th, 2010 at 9:49 pm
“How many times have you seen Tony do a cross over dribble?”
He does that plenty of times.
…….How many times have you seen Tony beat a man with a behind the back or between the legs dribble?”
As I said, Tony doesn’t engage in fancy types of stuff. But that does not mean that he’s only an average-to-below average ball-handler. The question is, does a PG handle the ball in a way that helps your team win. And Tony meets that definition better than most.
How many times have you seen Tony do a start and stop dribble to beat a man?
He does that plenty of times.
“How many times have you seen Tony try to explode past his man with raw speed?”
Nobody’s suggesting that taking the ball to the rack and finishing is not his greatest strength. But that doesn’t mean that he’s only an average-to-below average ball-handler.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:09 am
Jim, my point is that he uses his acceleration and speed to beat his man way more often that he uses ball handling skills.
Also, he doesn’t use a cross over to beat his man “plenty of times”. Sometimes he’ll start to drive one direction and then switch directions. I know what you’ll say, but that is a cross over. But it’s necessary to know what it’s based on. This is why I said “TRADITIONAL cross over”. Tony is able to cross over because his speed and acceleration force his defender to play off him so much. I’ll admit it’s a fine line but it is important. Tony does not have the ball handling skills to cross over on a defender if he doesn’t have elite quickness.
Even when he slows down before trying to accelerate past his man. This is not using his dribble to attack, confuse and take away the balance of his defender. This is simply using his speed. Most moves of Tony are based on his acceleration, speed and quickness.
I will give Tony credit for one dribble move. When he’s isolating his man and he dribbles straight at him before deciding which direction he’ll attack. He is utilizing his dribbling to put his opponent on the defensive. That is a rare good example of ball handling by Tony, imo.
Whether Tony’s ball handling is average, above average or whatever is just our opinions. Whether Tony will have to alter his game as he gets older is not opinion. If Tony wants to be effective when his acceleration is not elite, than he better tweek his game because he will not be the same. And maybe he will… However, he hasn’t shown me that he can.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:11 am
By the end of November we will know quite a few things about the Spurs as they are currently constituted. We will Know:
1. If Blair has progressed and developed a 10-18 foot shot.
2. If Blair has improved on his defense.
3. If Hill has continued to grow and develop.
4. If Anderson, Neal, and Temple are worth the effort to have them on the team.
5. If Splitter is all that we think he is.
6. If TP has recovered from last seasons injuries.
IF 2 of these things are NO, then look to see TP traded at the deadline. If more than 2 are no, expect Parker to go for prospects/high draft choices.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:14 am
spursfanbayarea
“The spurs are not your typical small market team because they as I stated before they got lucky in the lottery and were smart enough to surround them with proper talent and draft and stash. Have you noticed that the spurs have not been able to sign any prominent free agents during the duncan era. ”
That’s because the Spurs have always been cap conscious. Not until last season did they enter the realm of heavy penalty to pay for a player. And that was the gamble taken to help secure a player to help with one more championship run. It didn’t pan out. Jefferson could not produce in hopes of producing. Gamble failed. But it’s only a handful (if that during the Duncan era) that the Spurs did not get in return their player acquisition efforts.
What I’m talking about is not the norm as you are suggesting. Again…I understand your equivelance to small market teams. And Kidd did not come to the Spurs because the Spurs were “small market”.
O’neil did not come to the Spurs because of the small market tag. Both had to do with the security they were looking for in a “long term” contract. The Spurs simply didn’t need or agree to the terms those players were hoping for in the negotiations.
The scenario I’m presenting is totally different. It presents the ability to offer long term deals to franchise type players and be allowed to garnish maybe one high draft prospect to help maintain the success that theSpurs have had without the normal drop off in success for the duration you are talking about.
And I’m not saying it IS something they will do. One can never predict the future. But IT IS something that could be done if handled the correct way. And I don’t think you give this franchise enough credit at reinventing itself when needed.
Luck…as it may be in the draft experience… only happens once in every 15 to 30 years. This approach somewhat helps eliminate luck with proactive choices and actions.
I can see a “successful” organization doing something proactive rather than waiting on luck. And the Spurs have always been a “succesful” organization. And they may not do exactly what I have conjured. But you yourself just mentioned they were smart enough to draft and stash. I’m just saying that success (or process) doesn’t have to stop. In fact…it can still be used as an effective tool to land one or two big name F/A in the near future without having to endure the typical talent hiatus that normally accompanies teams after a succesful run.
All the great teams in sports past have managed to do exactly that…I consider the Spurs as one of the greatest sport teams ever assembled and believe they will be proactive instead of waiting for luck.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:24 am
“Parker is 28 years old and will be looking for a 5-6 year contract with possible opt outs. Ginobilli at 33 was able to get a 3 year 39 million dollar deal. Parker who is 5 years younger will want at minimum same money but probably throw on a few years. If you do not believe parker is worth that money then you should hope for a trade of tony parker while his trade value will be at his highest.”
Yeah Rob, I’ve been posting that Tony will want a 4-5 yr deal at 14-15Million/year. I’ve also posted that he won’t take less than Manu. Honestly, you probably read my posts first because I’ve been posting all this for a while. I’ve been a big advocate of trading Tony. I think his contract demands are going to be too high and will handcuff the Spurs if they sign him.
I was simply giving a scenario where the Spurs could sign him but sadly I know he’ll never go for this.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:28 am
The last post was a response to “bayareaspursfan”, not Rob. Sorry about that.
September 6th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
@rob
The spurs offered oneal and kidd max contracts. They were limited to 5 years rather than 6 year contracts. That situation hasnt changed. If you believe that economics are the only reason to leave a team, the team that has the player always will have the advantage of offering 6 years vs 5 years. So that makes it even more unlikely that the spurs would get a top level free agent. The spurs would only be able to get a franchise player if they first were willing to come(long shot) and then also have the cap space to do so such as lebron , bosh. The reality of the matter is that the spurs have not been able to get top level free agents even when we were champions. How do you expect them to get players into a small market when there is only role players? Can you give me an example of a franchise player going to a small market team as a free agent?
I agree that the front office is a great front office. Ive stated that many times. But I disagree on rebuilding on the hope that a franchise player will come over. I dont want to be like the Knicks and clear space and then overpay 2nd level players. Paying an injury prone forward 100 million would cripple us. The knicks have the resources to bite the bullet. Or overpaying a boozer type like the bulls had to do. The odds of a superstar player leaving his team is already remote, and like it or not, even more so to a small market team. The spurs are a great small market team. That is the truth of the matter. Which makes it all the more impressive. If we want to continue to be a good team the way to do so is developing through draft and trades while staying competitive.The spurs front office has been effective in doing so.
@Lenneez
I agree that parker will not go for 10 mill per year. I would love to see parker stay a spur. But if we are planning to move forward then his trade value will never be higher than it is now. With Hill and having colo overseas I wouldnt be opposed to shoring up other parts of our roster if we are going to lose parker at years end. So that is why I have thrown out the trade proposals.
September 6th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
Not advocating a Tony trade, but if I was, maybe something like this:
Parker and 2nd round pick Reynolds to Portland for Bayless, Pryzbilla and either Babbit or Fernandez if Portland won’t bite.
Portland instantly become elite top 4 team (barring injuries), whilst spurs keep building that young core and get some extra size.
Obviously Tp’s contract length would be the main concern for Portland…but who wouldn’t want to resign with that squad?
September 6th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
@Easy B
If we were to get something from portland I would think that we would have to at least get Aldridge to make it worth it. A trade of Aldridge and Fernandez for Parker and Reynolds would be a good trade for the spurs. What do you think about that?
September 6th, 2010 at 3:53 pm
spursfanbayarea
As I stated before…and am in agreement with you about to some degree…it is difficult to land a perenial all star away from another team. But as we saw with James and Bosh…both took less to play with Miami and join Wade. Chicago, New York and New Jersey would have been the chosen destination by your reasoning with regards to joining larger market teams. And staying with their respective teams would have garnished more money contractually. So it’s not ALWAYS the case as you are placing in your arguement.
The 15 smallest NBA cities - Listed by television market, out of 210 total areas (Number of Television Homes)…Miami was listed as 12th out of 15. The other cities in that list were San Antonio as the 3rd smallest with Memphis and New Orleans as one and two.
http://www.nbahoopsonline.com/generalinfo/Smallestmarkets.html
You have the right to believe what you want and have some numbers to prove your point. By the same token I reserve the right to believe what I want and show circumstances that indicate I could be correct as well.
September 6th, 2010 at 4:39 pm
for a player rely more on his own speed rather than skills (lack of 3′s, poor defense, bad passing) this is possible.
September 6th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
@rob
I never stated that monetary reasons were the sole factors in decisions. You stated that money was a reason that we could not get kidd and oneal. As for Lebron and Bosh, after accounting for the lax of state income tax lebron and bosh only gave up about 4 million over 6 years. They can easily recoup that cost by endorsements. Also I stated before that the league is now going toward super teams. Players want to play with other stars. And as I have stated before they want the best of both worlds. The best players do not want to win on their own. All the big names are trying to jump together to win championships. We can thank boston and l.a. for this mess.
My reasoning never said that the biggest market teams guarantee to get all the talent. They have better odds to do so. NY got amare, Chi got boozer.
My reasoning is that small market teams have a tougher chance at landing the big name free agents. What big name free agent went to a small market team? As a matter of fact when was the last time a big time free agent did so?
You are free to believe what you want. Im just debating the likely hood of rebuilding our team successfully that way. Now is there a chance someone like D. Howard would come. Sure but the odds are more likely not especially if there are only role players on the roster. Can we agree on that? We can both believe in different ways of building a team.
I could wish that we trade away some players, win the lottery and get another duncan in the draft. Now is that the most likely scenario? Most likely not. Could I believe that, sure. But the key point is thats not likely to happen. The spurs front office does a good job at predicting what will happen and keep us relevant. We could pray that Anderson turns out to be like Kobe Bryant. Now we could wish for that to happen. But is it likely? More likely not.
Thanks for keeping the discussion clean and spirited.
September 6th, 2010 at 4:55 pm
Reynold’s? Do you mean Richards? In any event, Portland would not let go of Aldridge without Miller being in that deal. They “might” entertain Aldridge, Miller, & A. Johnson for Parker, McDyess, & Richards (this is assuming that Parker sign’s a 4-5 year deal). But to be honest, I’m not that high on any of those players. Not really a great fit with the Spurs. Aldridge doesn’t play enough “D” for my tastes, not at 11+ mil./5 years. And I don’t like Fernandez very much for similar reasons. I also don’t think Bayless & Babbitt are particularly good fit’s here either. Bayless is too much like Hill, and I have my doubts that Babbitt can defend the 3-spot adequately. In my view, Batum is the key for us, and he would have to be in any deal that we might make for Parker.
September 6th, 2010 at 6:08 pm
@Jim & spursfanbayarea,
I meant Richards….I figured Portland wouldn’t give up Aldridge, and would rather give up a center. I don’t think we want Miller or Johnson - I think the team is trying to head in the other direction. I can understand the Babbit and Fernandez argument, maybe we could squeeze Batum out of the deal - that would be a score. I don’t see a problem with the spurs running a tandem point guard proposition with Bayless and Hill - in fact we may even be able to use as an advantage over certain teams. But realistically, 1 high level All Star guard does not get you an All star power forward unless you are packaging alot more than a second rounder and a power forward in his last year in the league….and though Aldridge has his flaws, he is still an upgrade over 90% of the power forwards playing in the league, so I don’t see Portland parting with him in a hurry. Portland might think they have a shot at Chris Paul in the future, so we may not have as much bargaining power as we think. What I most like about the trade is that we continue to add bulk and presence in the front line, whilst adding young perimeter talent that the FO can mould. Whose to say a babbit or fernandez wouldn’t flourish here?
September 6th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
i agree with jim on the trade. none of those players excites me. as much as i love the UT alum, aldridge isn’t the intense, focused winner that we need on our team. there are pieces i wouldn’t mind having on portland’s team, but those are not them.
re: free agents going to smaller markets, i side with bayarea over the past, but rob for the future. let’s face it, we’re extremely fortunate to have 4 championships with the san antonio market. i love san antonio and austin (i think we can reasonably include austin in the market), but the riverwalk is a far cry from south beach. the lebracle was a one-off; there just won’t be superstars heading to a small(er) market team again. rob, you said miami was the 12th smallest market, but that’s still a significant jump from san antonio.
that said, i think players will start to realize that smaller markets won’t matter in the current media age. people will go to the story. since miami got the trio, they’ve been inserted into the national broadcasts much more than they would’ve been otherwise. if the new cba has a hard cap, finances won’t be as big a hindrance either. it will all come down to deal saavy, and the spurs fo has shown their mettle there. i kind of hope they bring back pritchard in an advisory role at the least for his dealmaking skills. maybe he’d take it for a bit, but i doubt it. either way, the future of the nba is extremely murky right now, and i don’t think we’ll know if we can be contenders past this year until everything is settled.
September 6th, 2010 at 8:29 pm
Easy B
September 6th, 2010 at 6:08 pm
I really don’t see Hill & Bayless manning the point on a championship team. They’re both solid players, but are both naturally combo guards that are a bit undersized. Miller, even at his age, is still in the top half of PG’s in the league. He’s a tough player, with veteran leadership and experience. His acquisition would be a stop-gap move until we move to solve our long-term PG situation, and he & his salary would have to be moved by Portland if they were to even consider giving up a young, talented PF on the precipice of his prime years. What they’re getting for him is an all-star PG, 3-time champion, & finals MVP that I contend is still in his prime years (for at least 2 more years). But as I said, I don’t think it’s the type of deal that makes a lot of sense to either team. The only deal that makes sense for me is to package Parker & some combination of (e.g., Anderson, Temple, McDyess, Richards …) for Batum, Miller, and pieces (e.g., Przybilla, A. Johnson …). The main guy is Batum (although Prz can fortify our front line with size & toughness, Miller is a crafty vet that can still play, and at least Johnson is a young, true PG). Batum plays “D”, hit’s the three, can platoon with RJ, and be our SF of the future (he’s still just 21 years old). Portland gets an all-star PG that has won championships, as well as some promising youth to soften the loss of Batum. If we want to deal with Portland, these are the types of things that we’d need to look at, but even so, I just don’t think the Blazers are particularly good match for us to do a big trade.
September 7th, 2010 at 12:27 am
@jim…actually, I like what you proposed then - miller, batum and pryzbilla for Parker and Mcdyess…we could definitely stay in the mix with that kind of exchange…and then look to the draft or free agency for future PG’s. I guess what we are asking with this deal is will Batum reach All star level?
September 7th, 2010 at 2:16 am
spursfanbayarea
Thank you for the spirited clean debate as well.
Our differances of opinion in how the Spurs could/should/more than likely would be best in rebuilding is all hypothetical based on different criteria. But as you pointed out…
“Also I stated before that the league is now going toward super teams. Players want to play with other stars. And as I have stated before they want the best of both worlds. The best players do not want to win on their own. All the big names are trying to jump together to win championships.”
Though this alone doesn’t warrant the reason I have for trying to rebuild the Spurs in the manner I explained. It gives the Spurs the opportunity in the near future to allow such a thing to happen. That and, imo, the importance of trying to get something tangible for Tony now via trade. But then again…Parker might have another break out season for the Spurs this year. And if that be the case…perhaps doing their best to retain Tony might just be the catylist that allows the Spurs to do such a thing in the near future.
In either case…it’s obvious we are both die hard fans of the Spurs and it would be an honor to sit next to you at a Spurs game.
September 7th, 2010 at 5:18 am
All of these suggested trade scenarios amke good conversation, but wont get it done. More marginal players is definately not the answer.
Trading Parker is not the answer either…Spurs should lock this guy up. Paying Tony 10 million a year is warranted. He is well worth the price, unlike other unnamed players who are grossly overpaid.
Besides, Tony has been reportedly working fiercly on his outside shooting again this offseason. If Tony becomes consistent with his 3 point shot and his mid range jumper, he can no longer be guarded. Cant crowd him, cant give him space.
Here is a Dallas Cowboy quote that relates to the Spurs situation:
“Everyone around the Cowboys knows there are tough decisions to make regarding the roster. The Cowboys shouldn’t nickel-and-dime their roster, especially if they feel like this is a roster that can make a deep playoff run.
It seems the Cowboys want to go with younger players and that’s fine, but those young players, regardless of who they are, have to contribute”.
Certainly rings true for the Spurs….
Guys, what we at Spur Nation are experiencing now is a team caught up in outdated thinking and too stubborn to change its stripes.
Suddenly, we go out and sign Neal to a guaranteed deal. IN doing so, his rape case was apparenlt no issue…Great for Neal and the Spurs. People make mistakes…It doesnt make them forever useless. Neal can play and has no fear…First player aquisition that Ive agreed with in 2 years.
Blunders and bad personnel decisions have us primed for the lottery in 2012. Besdies, until the Spurs explain what the problem was with players like Mahinmi, we all remain clueless.
Wouldnt his age, price, and size make him look decent backing up Splitter at the 5? Even though Pop considers Blair at 6’6, our back up center, we all know better than that…
With the contracts of Duncan, Jefferson, Ginnobli and Bonner, we are stuck out..
Personally, I would not have resigned Ginnobli, would have asked Tim for a restructure, would have signed Jefferson at 5 mil a year, and would have cut Bonner. Would have released Jerrels..Dont need anymore 6′ guards.
Might I add, I would have NEVER lost Scola either….Did the brilliant FO not see this? Apparently not…
We are a small market team and continually become less attractive for marquee players each year…
Spurs need change and fresh perspective. New ideas and a new way of doing business. No more low budget commercials and lack of players in the endorsement game…BS advertisement and failure to keep the fan base informed has gotten old.
We all know its time for change. If Im peter Holt, I can see the rough times comming…
Cant win in the NBA if the Bonners of the league are the only type of players who actually want to play here. Ownership should consider this alarming at the least…
Would have kept Dwayne Jones and Mahinmi as well.
As it stands…Our front court is seriously limited and there is just nobody on this roster to back up RJ, period! Wasted the pick on Richards in the draft as well. (That old, outdated thinking again).
These are the NBA genious? This is planning? Masterful FO moves? Best in the League?
That is yesterday’s news…They havent done much lately, other than seriously suck.
Mr. Holt, we need your help!
September 7th, 2010 at 7:35 am
Ballhog solution - get rid of everyone not named Neal or Parker. Tell Duncan he can re-sign at 1/4 of his salary. Bring back Mahinmi. Yup that’ll do it.
September 7th, 2010 at 8:06 am
Off Topic, but Splitter vs Scola at 1:00 today.
September 7th, 2010 at 8:07 am
@GiterDun
Thanks for the translation from that mumbo jumbo…
+10
September 7th, 2010 at 8:09 am
@BlaseE
This will be an interesting matchup as SCOLA has dominated averaging 28 and 9?
I would really like to see what would happen if Brazil decided to utilize Splitter and their #1 scoring option…
September 7th, 2010 at 9:09 am
I am tired of reading so many posters talking about the decline of Tim Duncan. The only decline has been in his minutes. He is still putting up numbers that are not the much different than his best season. When you see his per 36 averages, he has dropped only 2 pts and 0 rebounds off his best season(2001-02). Pop has done a masterful job of protecting Tim for the last 13 years. Anyone who says Manu Ginobili is in decline, has not paid attention to what he did after Tony went down with the hand injury. Manu took over the offense. Yes, both had bad games, but so did the best in the league. Try 6-24 in a playoff game for the great “i broke my finger” Kobe.
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Now as for Tony, he is going to be much better this season and will be signed to extension. He sees the Spurs are built around the pick and roll. With Tim it works and Tiago Splitter is excellent in it. Tony will become the focus of the Spurs offense much the same as CP3. He will put up the numbers of an allstar point guard. There are two keys to our championship hopes. Improvement from Jefferson, Blair and Hill plus the young bench.
C Duncan/Splitter/Bonner
PF McDyess/Blair/Bonner
SF Jefferson/Gee
SG Anderson/Manu/Temple
PG Parker/Hill
Later in the season, splitter moves to PF as a starter. McDyess takes a small active role till playoffs. Then works as a defensive replacement.
September 7th, 2010 at 9:11 am
Try again.
I am tired of reading so many posters talking about the decline of Tim Duncan. The only decline has been in his minutes. He is still putting up numbers that are not the much different than his best season. When you see his per 36 averages, he has dropped only 2 pts and 0 rebounds off his best season(2001-02). Pop has done a masterful job of protecting Tim for the last 13 years. Anyone who says Manu Ginobili is in decline, has not paid attention to what he did after Tony went down with the hand injury. Manu took over the offense. Yes, both had bad games, but so did the best in the league. Try 6-24 in a playoff game for the great “i broke my finger” Kobe
Now as for Tony, he is going to be much better this season and will be signed to extension. He sees the Spurs are built around the pick and roll. With Tim it works and Tiago Splitter is excellent in it. Tony will become the focus of the Spurs offense much the same as CP3. He will put up the numbers of an allstar point guard. There are two keys to our championship hopes. Improvement from Jefferson, Blair and Hill plus the young bench.
C Duncan/Splitter/Bonner
PF McDyess/Blair/Bonner
SF Jefferson/Gee
SG Anderson/Manu/Temple
PG Parker/Hill
Later in the season, splitter moves to PF as a starter. McDyess takes a small active role till playoffs. Then works as a defensive replacement.
September 7th, 2010 at 9:16 am
@ Jim Hendu
I’m with Easy B; I actually like your trade proposal for Miller, Batum and PryzB. We get a perimeter defender and a legit 7’1 center and rebounder.
On the other hand we still would need more 3 point shooting and perhaps another big.
I think Miller would be an interesting fit for our system. He is a solid traditional PG and could be exactly what the Spurs need make full use of all of our scoring weapons.
I’d like to see you elaborate on your thinking on this.
Side notes:
Ryan Reynolds! HA!
Bring back Pritchard!!!
September 7th, 2010 at 10:09 am
Splitter is not good enough to start for Brazil vs Argentina?
Spurs letting go of Scola ranks as one of the dumbest front office moves ever!
September 7th, 2010 at 11:43 am
Easy B
September 7th, 2010 at 12:27 am
“I like what you proposed then – miller, batum and pryzbilla for Parker and Mcdyess…..”
Well, because McDyess is so old, I think we’d have to also give up either Temple or Anderson. Batum could become a borderline (or occasional) all-star, which is pretty good. Przybilla gives us the size we’re lacking on the front line. Miller is a super-tough, durable, crafty vet that knows what he’s doing at the point.
BALLHOG
September 7th, 2010 at 5:18 am
“Paying Tony 10 million a year is warranted. He is well worth the price, unlike other unnamed players who are grossly overpaid.”
There are two problems with this: (1) TP is likely going to get in the neighborhood of 13 mil. per over 5+ years; and (2), we MUST add additional young talent & depth, particularly on our front line, and TP is a valuable trade piece to get that done. And by the way, Batum is far from a “marginal” player, and at age 21 has considerable upside — TP doesn’t.
“Blunders and bad personnel decisions have us primed for the lottery in 2012.”
There’s no way we sink that low that quickly.
September 7th, 2010 at 11:55 am
Quick question for the gallery: How is it SA is 7th in Population in the US (as of 2009 and has been growing for the last several years), and is considered a small market? Especially when you include Hill Country and Austin in it? I understand ownership isn’t Mark Cuban and his Billions (nor would I want that putz owning my team - thank God for Nolan Ryan and Chuck Greenberg I don’t have to have that weighing on my head as I root for my Rangers).
September 7th, 2010 at 12:04 pm
Scola went off for 37 pts! Scola was on fire, unconscious, and clutch down the stretch. Spurs made a huge mistake giving him away.
Splitter had a hard time one on one with Oberto offensively. Splitter rotated great defensively, but stopped only 1 layup out of 6 or 7 that were dropped in over his outstretched hand. He’s not a deterrent at the rim at all.
I question how much help Splitter will be for the Spurs.
September 7th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
lvmainman
September 7th, 2010 at 12:04 pm
“Scola went off for 37 pts! Scola was on fire, unconscious, and clutch down the stretch. Spurs made a huge mistake giving him away.”
Scola was absolutely out of his mind. Turn around jumpers, fadeaways, 18-20ft jumpers, they all went in for him. In the last few seconds, he even tried to chunk a free throw off the rim that hit the backboard and went in. Thats when you know you are having a good night.
“Splitter had a hard time one on one with Oberto offensively. Splitter rotated great defensively, but stopped only 1 layup out of 6 or 7 that were dropped in over his outstretched hand. He’s not a deterrent at the rim at all.”
From what I saw, Splitter was simply giving away too much strength/weight to wily veterans like Scola and Oberto. In a way, he was the proverbial boy among men in this game. We’ve all discussed this numerous times, but Splitter needs to gain 20 lbs of muscle in order to really be able to stop a physical C in the NBA. Once he does that, he will be a force. For the record, Scola scored most of his points against Anderson Varejeo and if Louis were to play at that level every night, he would be a top three PF in the NBA…hands down. The guy simply had an unreal game.
Everyone knows that Splitter will not the be second coming of Dikembe Mutombo. He simply doesn’t have the lift to be an elite shot blocker, but he will be a good positional defender once he bulks up.
P.S. Splitter did have the only block in the game for either team.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:41 pm
@ SAJKinBigD
Market size (for media purposes) is determined by the population of the metropolitan area (Austin is a separate market altogether). For example, Dallas and Ft. Worth are a single market. By that, San Antonio is #31 (viewers age 12+). And in relation to the rest of the NBA (and cities with major sports teams in general), SA still comes in on the lower end.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
Thanks for the explanation - I’ve long wondered about the situation. So since there aren’t a lot of heavily populated non-incorporated ‘burbs around SA, it falls behind when compared to other areas. Probably a little to do with cable-availability, too, as I think SA’s pretty low on coverage (as is DFW, to be honest, but when everything’s added together, there’s a LOT of people around here).
September 7th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
@ Jim
Batum should have already been a Spur…As a player, he doesnt suck at a Bonner, Bogans, Mason level and would be a nice piece, but hes even in the conversation in a trade for TP. We are talking about a top 5 NBA allstar guard with several rings to boot. I might accepet Batum as the third player in the deal, just so TP would have somebody to carry Eva’s bags. We need players Jim…
No more wanna-be’s!
@ lvmainman
True on Scola. Though it is spilled milk at this point, the Scola situation was the incident that first made me leary about the dealings of this FO..
The move made no basketball sense whatsoever. Was it done to protect Duncans minutes? Why would it. Tim is a better player. Another unanswered mystery. Shouldnt the fan base know why the team didnt keep Scola or maybe why they couldnt develpoe Mahinmi or Hairston? All the mystery….Is this a basketball team or a secret society? Is Spurs information considered G14 classified? Enough with the hush-hush BS!
Strange indeed.
Not all moves were idiotic. We didnt improve very much as a team, but we didnt get worse either. Neal and Anderson couldnt be as chewed up on defense as Mason and Bogans even if they put in effort to do so.
Supposedly these two young men can shoot the ball and arent limited to open and uncontested set shots. This would be an immediate improvement.
However, regardless of who we bring in, the team still lacks fire and has no swagger under this coach. The league has changed, gotten more athletic, and is getting younger every day. Spurs must adjust thier thinking and try to stay in the hunt.
If this coach would stop thinking it’s about him, and get these young guys ready, to include Temple, Blair, and Splitter, and just let them play…WOW!
Besides,
We have 4 player coaches on the floor in Mcdyess, Duncan, Parker, and Ginnobli. Why over coach? Ever?
Wouldnt it be nice to see them just incorporate these young guys and play some dayum basketball?
None of this learning the system crap, sitting in the D Leauge, or sitting behind the bench in suits. How about some coaching? Some developement?
No mind games, no dictator BS, no destroying of confidence, and no inconsistent minutes.
If this coach could do these things, we could be a contender, now!
Duncan, Ginnobli, and Parker are older, but who cares. They are still All Star ballers who bring it every single night. Warriors, proven and true! I would take them, with a decent supporting cast, over any Big 3 in the NBA.
But, our masterful FO cant find 4-6 decent NBA caliber role players to team up with our big 3, in all of the basketball world? Anywhere?
All the while, Our FO fully understands that Duncan and Ginnobli are working a 2 to 3 yr window, at best. We just dont have seasons to waste.
We wonder why, dont we?
September 7th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
BALLHOG
September 7th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
“We are talking about a top 5 NBA allstar guard with several rings to boot. I might accepet Batum as the third player in the deal, just so TP would have somebody to carry Eva’s bags. We need players Jim…”
Well, obviously you don’t rate Batum as highly as I do. As far as TP goes, he’s got about 3 prime years left, and then he’s on the down-slope. Batum, on the other hand is on the up-slope for 3-4 years, and at a prime-level plateau for another 7-8 years (conceivably at borderline all-star level). We need to build up the “quality” young players on this team that can help bring us success out into the future. Batum, while not a stud, could easily be one of those key players, and he can defend & hit the three, two areas we need improvement in. And as I said, we may lose TP anyway, plus we need size on the front line, which Prz can competently provide. Also, Miller is a tough cookie and has been a borderline all-star his entire career. He’s not the scorer that TP is, but a better play-maker & rebounder, and we have enough scoring on this team anyways. The deal would keep us competitive over the short-term with Miller, Prz, and Batum, AND help us build for the future with Batum. It’s not the best deal in the world, but if we’re going to lose TP anyways (probably more than 50/50 chance), we could certainly do worse.
September 8th, 2010 at 1:43 am
All speculations about the future of point guard Tony Parker are moot until he sets food on the hardcourt once again and does his stuff. And while he may not be reading our opinions here about his fate, undoubtedly TP is chomping at the bit waiting to break out of the starting gate to prove his detractors - even those among us - wrong. Being in the last year of his contract may be motivation, but I believe what is spurring him on (pardon the pun) is to show all of us how he is still the premier PLAYMAKER that he is until injuries saddled him last season. He may be an offensive threat, too, but the Frenchman is no one-dimensional cager that we can box in, which is why he is considered one of the “Big Three.”
Give TP a break, and he may yet reward those who have kept faith in him.
September 8th, 2010 at 6:22 am
Jim Henderson
I’ve thought long and hard about your deal with Portland.
I like it if it ever came to fruition. Miller would be the perfect compliment to the players on this team. (Probably would help make Jefferson look better).
I’ve always wanted Batum for the reasons you mentioned and even made a trade proposal earlier in another article suggesting just that.
Pryz won’t garnish many points…but would be that prototypical 7′ big to clog the lane and defend the paint. Though I do beleive McDyess is the better player.
Anyway…probably wouldn’t happen but it would be a good deal for the Spurs.
September 8th, 2010 at 6:27 am
@ Jim
Agreed about Batum….
Also,
Is there any feasible reason that the Spurs shouldnt be involved in this?
See Below:
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/b5L7l
September 8th, 2010 at 6:39 am
Who would Amundson take time away from on this team? Maybe that’s why they’ve not been linked to him at all…
September 8th, 2010 at 7:57 am
BALLHOG
September 8th, 2010 at 6:27 am
“Is there any feasible reason that the Spurs shouldnt be involved in this?
See Below:
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/b5L7l”
Rumor has it that the Spurs have almost $2mil left of the MLE. Surely we could get Amundson for that?!? I can’t believe we are in September and he STILL hasn’t been signed. Man I wish our FO would get on the ball with things.
September 8th, 2010 at 8:39 am
@Manolo
People are not dissing tony parker. In fact most people on this site realize he will have a really good year this year. I expect parker to come out of the gate like a bat out of hell. But the key point of everyones discussion is that parkers trade value will be at his highest. This is when we can expect to get the most out of a trade from him. Especially if we are uncertain about him wanting to remain a spur. If he walks away and we get nothing thats much worse than getting at least some talent in return.
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