Thursday, September 16th, 2010...3:44 am
Can DeJuan Blair be an All-Star when Tim Duncan retires?
DeJuan Blair became a favorite of just about everybody involved with the Spurs in his single season in the NBA (there’s gotta be someone who doesn’t like him, right?). Selected with the 37th overall pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, analysts immediately dubbed Blair the steal of the draft. His 7.8 points and 6.4 rebounds per game were solid for a rookie, but nothing spectacular.
What were spectacular, however, were the performances Blair put on in games where Tim Duncan was unavailable. On January 13 of last season, the Spurs paid a visit to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Duncan sat out the game after playing 40 minutes the night before and Blair started in his place. 48 minutes of game time later, Blair racked up 28 points, 21 rebounds and two blocked shots. In the last game of the regular season, with Duncan resting before the playoffs, Blair put up 27 points, 23 rebounds (8 offensive) and four assists in a 96-89 loss to the Dallas Mavericks. Another performance of note, though one that doesn’t factor much into the general message of this post, was his showing in the Rookie-Sophomore Challenge.
This output in the absence of Duncan leads to the question, can Blair put up similar numbers on a consistent basis when Duncan retires? Obviously, it’s damn-near impossible for a 6’7” post player with little to work with for a jump shot, or any post player for that matter, to average 20 points and 20 rebounds per game. But can Blair put up the requisite numbers on a nightly basis to make him an All-Star?
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Blair’s per 36 minute numbers last season are close to what he would need to get the attention of voters and opposing coaches. One area not in the table that he needs to work on, and will with proper development, is fouling. Foul trouble limited Blair’s minutes in a number of games during his rookie season, and 5.4 fouls per 36 minutes is not a good sign. Otherwise, here are Blair’s numbers per 36 minutes:
| Name | Points per 36 minutes | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeJuan Blair | 15.4 | 12.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
Looking at the per 36 minute numbers from last year’s Western Conference All-Star big men, Blair has some work to do. But he’s close.
| Name | Points per 36 minutes | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amare Stoudemire | 24.1 | 9.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Tim Duncan | 20.6 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| Pau Gasol | 17.8 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| Zach Randolph | 19.8 | 11.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Chris Kaman | 19.4 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
Needless to say, per 36 minute averages are not the end all, be all of selecting All-Stars. For one, there’s no guarantee that increasing Blair’s minutes will likewise increase his production. Some players are more effective in limited action. With Blair, we have a small sample of very impressive performances in expanded minutes, performances where Blair was not the focal point entering the game. It’s tough to say how good he would have been if the opposing team entered the game prepared for Blair being the number one or number two option offensively.
The starting spots on the All-Star team, voted by the fans, go to the stars. And as much as people seem to like Blair, he’s not there yet. His only real shot is latching on as a reserve, and coaches have their own reasons for selecting the All-Star back-ups. Those spots go to the best of the rest, players who are having excellent seasons. Sometimes it’s a player deserving of a starting spot but — thanks to the irregularities of fan voting — he doesn’t get it. Other times spots go to players on the teams having the best seasons. Almost every season this past decade, you could count on the Spurs having a couple of All-Stars. Same with the Lakers. When Duncan retires, who’s to say the Spurs will have a good enough record to warrant an All-Star spot or two?
But where the future looks promising, is seeing how limited Blair’s offensive game is right now. As mentioned previously, Blair has no jump shot. It’s the primary reason he couldn’t play alongside Tim Duncan last season, as Duncan is more effective when paired with a big man who can hit a 15-foot jump shot. Blair worked this summer with Spurs shooting coach Chip Engellend, but we don’t yet know the extent of his improvement in that area. Time will tell.
In addition to the lack of shooting prowess for Blair, his post game needs to be more creative. Because he’s shorter, Blair’s back-to-the-basket game is limited to a lot of up-fakes and using his wide base to create space. There’s not a polished up-and-under move or jump hook for him to throw at defenders. Most of his points come off of offensive rebounds and rolling to the basket on the pick-and-roll. Adding any sort of post move and/or jump shot to his game will immediately give a bump to Blair’s scoring numbers.
But where Blair did excel last season, was as the roll man in Spurs’ pick-and-roll situations. Often paired with Manu Ginobili, Blair scored 1.05 points per possession on plays where he took a shot as the roll man, according to Synergy Sports. He shot 56% from the field on those plays and scored 54% of the time. Blair even had 11 And-1′s.
DeJuan Blair is deceptively quick for a guy with his girth. Couple that with above-average ball-handling skills, and you’ve got the makings of an excellent face-up post player. Once he gets a jump shot, that is. And this summer, Blair appeared to slim down some, presenting the possibility that he could own an even better first step.
Until Tim Duncan retires, though, how much court time Blair sees depends on his defense. As an undersized big man, opposing teams sometimes view Blair as the weak link on the defensive end of the floor. In Game 2 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals against the Phoenix Suns, the Suns gave the ball to Amare Stoudemire repeatedly in the fourth quarter when Blair was in the game. More than a third of the shots Blair defended last season were in the post. Of those, Blair allowed 1.07 points per possession.
On the flip side, Blair was reasonably successful defending the pick-and-roll in his rookie year. He gave up only 0.9 points per possession when defending shots by the roll man in pick-and-roll situations. This is a good sign considering how often NBA teams run the pick-and-roll and the good looks players get at the basket when receiving the ball as a roll man.
Continuing the development Blair showed as a rookie, is it unreasonable to expect him to contend for an All-Star spot in two or three years? No, not unreasonable. But weird things happen when some guys play starter’s minutes, and their production dips. There’s nothing to make us think that Blair will encounter this same fate, other than his fouling habits, and his performances in Tim Duncan’s absence last season stand on their own.
65 Comments
September 16th, 2010 at 5:19 am
I, for one, believe he has what it takes.
1. Natural Talent
2. Charisma (make fans love the smile)
3. Work Ethic
4. Hunger
I cant wait for more 20/20 games this season.
September 16th, 2010 at 5:48 am
Great Article! …and DieHardSpur, I couldn’t agree with you more… at least that he has the intangables (i dont think i spelled that right)! But he definitely has the charisma and charm…. I mean before he stepped on the Spurs’ court everyone loved him, I know I did and I hadn’t even seen any of his college accomplishments do be excited about, I just was! You can’t earn that, it just has to be a part of who you are… and for “The Beast”, He’s Got It!!!
Now let’s just hope he can get the numbers to back-up the rest, because that will be the only thing that keeps him from all-star status…. but personally, I think he’s got the hunger to get there, so I’m not worry!
(Lets’ just pray those knees hold up!)
September 16th, 2010 at 5:54 am
@Mike
I’m proud of the fact that I went an entire 1100 word post without mentioning his ACLs. Someone had to do it at some point, right?
September 16th, 2010 at 5:54 am
Excuse me, lack of ACLs.
September 16th, 2010 at 6:06 am
Andrew, great article and I feel like DB45 is going to have a monster 2nd season! He does need to be more creative offensively but I tell you what, every team needs a guy who can clean the glass and follow up missed shots with “garbage” buckets. The guy just has a nose for the basket and where the ball is going to go, ala Dennis Rodman without the drama and lunacy. While I hope he does develop the jump shot and more creativity while attacking the basket, as long as he quells his foul problem, I will be satisfied with his lunch pail mentality. I say he is an All Star by 2012. GO SPURS GO, Drive For Five!
September 16th, 2010 at 8:22 am
Great article. Can’t wait for the season to start.
September 16th, 2010 at 8:29 am
Blair & Ginobili were probably my favorite two-man combo on offense last year. Blair’s game isn’t creative enough yet, but as the post notes, his awareness around the rim and his off-the-ball movement make for some great offensive possessions. But I think that if even he continues to play well with his guards, and ideally develop a similar rapport with Tony this season (though I don’t really expect that to happen), he probably won’t be an All Star any time soon. With the exception of David Lee (ugh) and Ben Wallace, you just don’t see too many All Star bigs who aren’t very strong post players, or at least prolific scorers.
Of course, like everyone else, I would love to see him with a nice jump hook and a reliable 15-footer. Once Dirk, Tim and Yao get out of the way for a new generation of All-Star bigs in the West, I hope to see Blair counted among them. With Boozer and Amar’e gone, he definitely has the opportunity to make a name for himself in the next 2 or 3 seasons. Let’s see if he can take advantage of it.
Good post, something nice to look forward to after the sadness of the last one… How do y’all see the chances of the Spurs sending 2 F/Cs to the All Star game in, say, 2012? Eh!?
September 16th, 2010 at 8:31 am
First off, I’m a pretty big Blair fan so this may bias my opinion. However, with that disclosure in the open, I think Blair will have his chances at an all star appearance. He has the ambition and is still only 21yrs old so there is a lot of time left for him to improve. On the offensive end, Blair is a weird matchup for most PF’s. He’s short, but is long. He’s heavy, but he’s quick. He has no offensive moves, but he scores. He has no ACL’s, but he has a respectable 33″ verticle (not bad for a guy who weighs 265lbs).
If Blair can develop just a few offensive moves and a consistent shot, he can become deadly. Blair’s shooting form isn’t terrible considering the form of other big men in the league so I see no reason at all why he can’t develop a decent 15ft shot. My belief is that Blair doesn’t have a jumper due to the fact that he hasn’t needed one until now. Up until joining the Spurs, he could just bull his way to the bucket and not concern himself with a more sophisticated offensive game. I believe the Spurs coaching staff can greatly enhance his effectiveness on the offensive end.
On the defensive end, I’m afraid Blair, due to his lack of height, will always be at a disadvantage against most PF’s and all C’s. However, if he can use his quickness and long wingspan to front the big men, he may be able to remedy much of his defensive ailments. Bottom line: Blair will never be a great post defender, but his work ethic and hustle can make him passable.
It’s funny how we put so much into numbers. If Blair were 6’10″ (only 3″ taller) I have a feeling we wouldn’t be discussing IF Blair made and Allstar appearance, but how MANY he would be making.
September 16th, 2010 at 8:39 am
He may play himself into the discussion, but in all likelihood, NO.
Blair might have one or two seasons at his peak in which he posts #’s worthy or all star recognition, but I just don’t see it happening.
September 16th, 2010 at 8:39 am
@B Burke
I’m just toying with your emotions.
September 16th, 2010 at 9:57 am
Best case scenario: Charles Barkley
Worst case scenario: Malik Rose
Much more likely to happen:
- at the beginning of his career Blair will be loved by all.
- during the middle part of his career, someone (not the Spurs) will give him a contract he doesn’t fully deserve.
- in the final part of his career he will be considered a key role player in a title team.
Partially related to this: Blair is 6.5, he only gets to 6.6 with shoes on.
@Alix Babaie
we wish he was Dennis Rodman!
September 16th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
I pretty much concur with Hobson’s post. I’ve been for quite some time predicting that Blair has a pretty decent chance to get to occasional all-star level (Boozer is probably the most apt upside comparison - and if he can ever get Boozer’s fade away - wow!). As Hobson said, Blair will probably never be a very good defender, but he could become good enough, especially if he can eventually master the strip down move that has helped make guys like former Jazz PF’s Boozer & Malone into decent to better than average defenders. But it’s on the offensive end that I expect to see significant improvement over the next 2-3 years. If he establishes a solid 15-18 footer, and further improves his ball handling off the dribble, he will become a monster to deal with. He’s physical, aggressive, has good quickness, decent hops, great instincts around the basket with a soft touch, and is an absolute terror on the boards. Plus his attitude, competitiveness, work ethic, and pride are exactly what it takes to become really good in this league. But as Hobson notes, he’s still just 21 years old. Be patient with him, show confidence in him, give him his due minutes, and he will not disappoint this team. I just don’t know if his “big” jump will be this year or next, but in my view it’s coming. It’s just a matter of time.
Best case: Boozer
Worst case: Milsap
September 16th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
Blair spent most of his time last year at center. With the arrival of Splitter, Blair’s minutes at center will drop. He must prove he can play PF (which he has been working on and we did not [because of injury] get to see in summer league play. Blair must prove he can handle the PF position just to maintain last season’s minutes.
September 16th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
Two ways DJB becomes an all-star: no way and no F&$@n way.
September 16th, 2010 at 2:57 pm
SOUR GRAPES ChillFAN??
I wonder how many of Blair’s fouls can be attributed to his being a ROOKIE?? It would be interesting to do a study of players to see how many less fouls are called on them once they have a year under their belts. My bet it is 1-2 fouls less on average per game, that can be attributed to 1) not being a rookie with NO RESPECT, and 2) just getting to be a smarter player overall.
September 16th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
Blair’s per minute stats are essentially top of the league already. As a rookie he was already a phenomenal rebounder and efficient scorer. Right now I’m confident that he’ll continue his current production, even with more minutes. This is who he was in college and he’s managed to carry it to the NBA game.
However, the number one thing that gets you selected as an all star is total points. So for Blair to become an All Star he’s going to need to get both more minutes and score more. Since I doubt Blair will ever become a the type of player who just puts up a high volume of shots to get his, this means he needs to add to his offensive skill set which I know he’s working on. I hope this happens although he’d still be a fantastic asset at 12 and 12 guy.
September 16th, 2010 at 6:16 pm
bduran
September 16th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
“So for Blair to become an All Star he’s going to need to get both more minutes and score more.”
That is true, and should happen within the next 2-3 years. I’d say all-star by year five or six is a decent bet (age 25-27).
“Since I doubt Blair will ever become a the type of player who just puts up a high volume of shots to get his….”
Don’t be too sure. I think there’s an excellent chance that Blair will be putting up 12-14 shots per game (close to what Duncan did last year) within three years, and might eventually peak at around 16 per game. While that may not be considered “high volume”, it’s enough to get himself the numbers he’ll need for an all-star shot some day. He could become a fairly dominant scorer in this league, but he needs to be given the opportunity, which isn’t easy to get at present playing behind Tim “the legend” Duncan. But TD at age 37 (if he’s still with us) will get less minutes, and could very well defer much more to Blair and Splitter at that point. Blair could definitely get to 20 & 12 some day at his peak. That’s a legit ceiling for him. It will be predicated on him working hard on his mid-range jumper, but he has the skill & work-ethic to accomplish this, and I think he’ll do it. He’s already impressed a lot of people, and I think that will only continue over the next few years. He’s got “special and unique” written all over him. It was great luck, and a savvy pick-up by the FO to get him at #37. We’re very fortunate, the degree to which will become more and more apparent over the next few years.
September 16th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Blair needs to pattern his game after an All-time Great. Wes Unseld. He’s the guy with Bad knees who dominated the offensive glass, had a hell of a 2-handed overhead outlet pass, and regularly shot at over 50%. 6’7 245 lbs. His body type is just like DeJuan’s but DeJuan’s a better athlete. He needs to study film on how to get the space needed for a shot, he needs to make smarter choices on when to do put-backs against challenging defenders, or when it’s smarter to pull back and reset after yet another offensive rebound. Not saying he’s going to get where Wes is, I’m saying that him patterning his game that way will be an immense help, and should he get there, it’ll be because he chose the best possible role model there is for a guy his size.
September 16th, 2010 at 7:29 pm
i disagree that his ceiling is boozer. he’s a phenomenally better rebounder than booze.
i honestly don’t think he’ll be an all-star unless parker leaves the team. at most you’ll see 2 all-stars from the spurs unless our record exceeds all expectations. will he he beat out duncan or parker? no. the question then comes to our post-duncan era, to which andrew alludes at one point. will we have a good enough record, or will blair have ascendantly good enough numbers to get voted in? i think it’s possible, but it’s a tough call. i think he’s capable of a 20/15 season even, but we’ll see if he can reach that peak.
two things: 1. i disagree that he can’t be a legitimately good defensive big. his length and quickness for his size are unreal, and with his weight, he won’t get pushed out of the post by too many. he’s not going to be duncan, but i think he has the potential to be a poor man’s ben wallace.
2. if he has a ridiculous breakout season at some point, like the 20/15 i think he can have, can someone persuade barkley to dust off and pass the nickname “round mound of rebound”?
September 16th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
Great point Man in Black.
Wes Unseld was one of my all time favorites and never corilated Blair to Unseld until now.
If Blair could pattern his game in that fasion…he’ll be an all star some day. I think up until last season, Blair (throughout college) didn’t develop any kind of jump shot/hook for the specific reason he didn’t need to.
We’ll see if he can modify and improve in areas that will only help his inside game be more effective.
September 16th, 2010 at 8:55 pm
andy
September 16th, 2010 at 7:29 pm
“i disagree that his ceiling is boozer. he’s a phenomenally better rebounder than booze.”
Well, let’s not be silly. “Phenomenally” better rebounder? I assume that you realize that Boozer is currently 5th in the entire league in career rebounds per game, behind only Howard, Duncan, Oneal, & Garnett (and per 36 minutes he’s ahead of Garnett)! I do agree that Blair could very well be a better rebounder than Boozer (although let’s see him get 30+ mpg. in, play some “D”, and score more before we make an official declaration).
So, you say that he’s a “phenomenally” better rebounder than Boozer (a two-time all-star), and yet you think “he won’t be an all-star”? What, because Tony Parker might be on the team? So, we’re going to have too many all-stars on the team in three years for Blair to make the team? I don’t get it. For one thing, it is highly unlikely that TD, Manu, or TP will be all-star selections in three years, and in fact most of them will probably be gone. If Blair puts up 20/15, as you say he could, he’ll be an all-star regardless. Anyone in history that has put up those numbers was selected for the all-star team — no exceptions.
I’m a little confused by your post. Are you saying that Blair in any reasonable sense could exceed Boozer’s all-around game, a guy that has averaged 17 and 10 over his 8 year career, with two all-star selections? If so, what player do you think represents the most apt comparison for Blair’s upside?
September 16th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
Man In Black
September 16th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Very good point. Unseld is a great guy for Blair to learn from. And there certainly are some similarities to their game & body types. Of course, it’s a big stretch to think that Blair could get to Wes’ stature defensively in the low post, or establish that prototypical outlet pass that was a key to Unseld’s uniqueness. Blair has a slightly different skill set, based on more athleticism & mobility, which is more likely to be exploited on the offensive end. I look for Blair to develop and utilize his talents more on the perimeter than Wes did (as a PF, not a center). Also, since Wes was probably the best low-post defender at 6’7″ and under in NBA history, it will be difficult for Blair to approach that level of success on the defensive end. Nevertheless, Blair would be well-advised to take some Unseld tapes as you said, and learn how to maximize his efficiency in the paint at both ends. There certainly haven’t been many undersized guys that have done it better.
September 16th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
Thanks Jim. Wes said it best,”There are guys taller than me and bigger than me, but none of those guys are going to outwork me.”
If DeJuan relies on that kind of mindset, we as Spurs fans, might witness an amazing development.
September 16th, 2010 at 9:58 pm
Man In Black
September 16th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
You’re damn right. Wes was major mentally tough. I think that same mindset can be a strength of DeJuan’s as well. He would certainly be wise to cultivate it, using Wes as a model.
By the way, I believe that Wes is currently the owner of a private business in Baltimore. Wouldn’t it be great if we could pry him away and employ him as a part-time seasonal consultant to school our young big’s, particularly for DeJuan? Anyway, just a thought.
September 16th, 2010 at 10:02 pm
Well, I guess we’re not going to get heavier on the front line!:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=A2KIPF583ZJMLKsA_im8vLYF?slug=ap-spurs-popovich
September 16th, 2010 at 11:12 pm
I’m not about to put ceilings on people, but 20/12? 20/15? Those numbers are a stretch. Reason: for Blair to be on the floor that long to generate those “heady” numbers, he would have to be the “go to” guy down low, meaning battling the gasols, aldriges, boshs and garnetts for extended periods, unless splitter takes those matchups in which dj will likely face either centers much bigger than him or guys like odom who are taller and quicker. I’m not looking to argue here, but there may have been some Kool aid going around when reading this article. If I was to hazzard a guess at his peak maybe 16 and 9/10
September 16th, 2010 at 11:36 pm
lol Rookie stats don’t mean shit with the Spurs…
I can easy tell that there was at least 10 games last season I woul dhave play blair 10+ more minutes
September 17th, 2010 at 1:37 am
I love the comparisons with Wes Unseld, everyone. It’s nice to see that he’s so well remembered. I’m not entirely sold, however. First, the comments about Wes’ lack of athleticism and bad knees should be limited to his late career. When he was the Rookie of the Year and MVP in ’69 he was deceptively quick and athletic.
He played center at an unusual time because, on the one hand, there were a lot of older-model centers around, like Dave Cowens, Willis Reed, or Alvin Adams. But he also had to guard players who would tower over most centers even today, like Kareem, Wilt, Artis Gilmore, or Walton. He managed it because he had the Big E next to him. Unseld could use strength/positioning as the first line of defense and then rely on the much longer and quicker Elvin Hayes (a very long 6’10″) for help. It seemed to work pretty well, as they made the finals three times, but it still had holes. The Spurs gave them problems with guys like Larry Kenon, who were long and quick. And of course, that’s the danger with Blair-a team like LA that has length and quickness up front.
Still, Unseld is one of the all-time greats. Despite the obvious physical similarity, though, I don’t see DeJuan developing in that direction. In terms of relative height, he is actually smaller than Unseld was because the average NBA player is about 1-1.5″ taller than in the 70s. (He’s not much smaller relative to centers, but is much smaller relative to forwards and guards because that’s where the players have gotten so much bigger). Blair is longer than Unseld, but not as strong. He’s certainly a great rebounder already and will likely improve as he learns the tricks. But he’ll never master the outlet pass like that-it’s really a lost art and it would take years of work just to get it to Kevin Love’s level.
There are a couple of other players with similar physiques: Barkley, Larry Johnson, and Anthony Mason spring to mind. But the weird thing about all of those guys, and Unseld, is that they were so unique-not just as a group, but even when compared to each other. I think Blair needs to go the same way that those guys did. He has a unique body and set of skills, so he shouldn’t emulate ANYONE. Just develop his own beastly skills and make all the other teams figure out how to handle him. Unseld, Barkley, Johnson, and Mason used to give opposing coaches fits, not just because they were so good but because they were so weird.
September 17th, 2010 at 1:53 am
Sorry-I got so caught up in the historical comparison that I skipped the title question. I think DeJuan Blair can and will be an all-star for the Spurs. He strikes me as a quadruple threat, in the ancient Greek sense: strong in body, mind, heart, and spirit. Plus I think he will be a very effective front court partner with Tiago Splitter. They complement each other nicely.
Worst case: Calvin Natt (not a bad worst-case scenario…)
Best case: When DeJuan plays tonight, he’s LeBron’s kryptonite.
September 17th, 2010 at 2:54 am
the “focus” of the offence to get all star numbers? In his best preformances, could we say he was the focus? no.
September 17th, 2010 at 4:43 am
Agree with the “unique” term for dj….and with his charisma, bulk, leap and sizeable paws he certainly can add alot of value to a team…. Until proven otherwise though, he is more in the baby Davis league than boozers
September 17th, 2010 at 5:17 am
@Man In Black
“He needs to study film on how to get the space needed for a shot, he needs to make smarter choices on when to do put-backs against challenging defenders, or when it’s smarter to pull back and reset after yet another offensive rebound. “
That’s the one part of his game that frustrates me the most; he needs to learn to pass the ball out of the post when he gets an offensive rebound (See Rodman).
Can he be an All-Star? Yes, once Tim is gone and he’s playing more than rookie minutes.
Go Spurs Go!!
September 17th, 2010 at 6:08 am
Jim,
“Don’t be too sure. I think there’s an excellent chance that Blair will be putting up 12-14 shots per game”
I think you missed my point a bit. I just meant he’s not going to shoot for the sake of shooting. I expect him to be a player who doesn’t force a ton of shots and and therefore will need to expand his offensive game in order to be able to take more shots. For example, if he never develops a solid jumper I doubt he’ll take a bunch of jumpers. Some players will knowing that purely scoring points will get them noticed. How often do articles only mention PPG like it’s the most important thing? I don’t think Blair’s that guy.
I know he’s working on his jumper and I look forward to seeing the results of it. If he gets that falling and if he gets a little more polished around the basket (does he know anyone who can help him with this?) then look out. He’ll get the points and the publicity while keeping his efficiency up.
September 17th, 2010 at 6:12 am
Jim,
Also, to andy’s point about Blair being an all star. There’s a difference between being one of the best players at your position and getting to play in the all star game. Iverson got voted in without playing. Being All Star appearances is not a good method for player evaluation.
September 17th, 2010 at 6:22 am
Eons ago, we were already comparing him to the second coming of Wes Unseld: a mobile, talented and hardworking 6-foot-7 center of the Baltimore Bullets, who won one NBA championship with him as the go-to-guy (although, he did have Earl Monroe in the backcourt).
Given time and more development, we believe Blair has the work ethic and skills, as most of you have noted, to match and even surpass the mighty Unseld.
September 17th, 2010 at 8:22 am
You guys need to catch Pop’s interview on http://www.nba.com, it is a riot. Good interview, good start.
September 17th, 2010 at 8:44 am
While I love the guy to death, I don’t think he’ll be an All-Star. I think he has the potential to have the type of game that allows 18/12 a game in a few years, but I’m really worried about his lack of ACLs.
I know, he’s been beasting for several years already without them, but the ACL is such a crucial part of knee stability that I’m very wary. I know he can partially make up for the lack of knee stability by doing squats and deadlifts, but in the end, he’s one tumble, one bump, one awkward landing away from a catastrophic knee injury.
Will he have the game to be an All-Star? I think so. But if you made me put money on it, I’d have to say no because of his knees.
September 17th, 2010 at 9:36 am
[quote]There are a couple of other players with similar physiques: Barkley, Larry Johnson, and Anthony Mason spring to mind. But the weird thing about all of those guys, and Unseld, is that they were so unique–not just as a group, but even when compared to each other. I think Blair needs to go the same way that those guys did. He has a unique body and set of skills, so he shouldn’t emulate ANYONE. Just develop his own beastly skills and make all the other teams figure out how to handle him.[/quote]
Even Kobe Bean analyzes tape of Jerry West or looks to get a post up session with Hakeem Olajuwon. DeJuan has the best PF ever next to him in Tim Duncan, and a long Tiago Splitter as well. Him analyzing Wes just means he’s paying attention and a homage to an all-time great. He can use those moves, adjust them to make them his own, but ultimately, fundamentals are going to outlast DeJuan’s athleticism. I remember Wes early and remember him late. He was a bruiser, the similarities are eerie, but DeJuan & Tim/Tiago could be a very formidable front line against established ones like Boston or LA. At the very least, it looks more imposing than say Bonner and Mahinmi.
September 17th, 2010 at 9:42 am
Work ethic of Unseld, Pick and roll of Malone, rebounding of Barkley. Go for it Beast.
September 17th, 2010 at 9:51 am
Does this quote somewhat describe Blair??
“However, as a player he was the greatest anomaly in basketball history. Listed at 6-6, but probably actually closer to 6-4, he played power forward as well as anyone, often dominating players half a foot taller.
Barkley brought vitality, attitude and a host of skills to professional basketball. He was viewed as an oddity — an undersized power forward with rebounding as his only discernible basketball skill — when he entered the league with the nickname “Round Mound of Rebound.” ”
I would be happy to see his career parallel Barkley’s. Very Happy!!
September 17th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
Easy b
September 16th, 2010 at 11:12 pm
“If I was to hazzard a guess at his peak maybe 16 and 9/10″
Without a jump shot, at 20 years old, he was already scoring 8 ppg. and six and a half boards in just 18 minutes. If you DOUBLE his minutes within the next 3 years, and he develops a nice mid-range jumper, how do you come up with just another 8 points and 3 rebounds at his peak (5-6 years from now)?
Tim in Surrey
September 17th, 2010 at 1:37 am
“When he was the Rookie of the Year and MVP in ’69 he was deceptively quick and athletic.”
That’s true, but he never had the hops that Blair has.
“In terms of relative height, he is actually smaller than Unseld was because the average NBA player is about 1-1.5″ taller than in the 70s. (He’s not much smaller relative to centers, but is much smaller relative to forwards and guards because that’s where the players have gotten so much bigger).”
That is true.
“Blair is longer than Unseld, but not as strong.”
That’s debateable. In Unseld’s day, the league was more physical (at least partly due to rule changes), and thus “enforcer-type” big’s played a more prominent role, which Unseld embraced wholeheartedly. He was a tough dude, and a “man” of his times.
“But he’ll never master the outlet pass like that–it’s really a lost art and it would take years of work just to get it to Kevin Love’s level.”
I agree.
“He has a unique body and set of skills, so he shouldn’t emulate ANYONE. Just develop his own beastly skills and make all the other teams figure out how to handle him. Unseld, Barkley, Johnson, and Mason used to give opposing coaches fits, not just because they were so good but because they were so weird.”
Learn from, but not emulate. Yes, very good points.
“I think DeJuan Blair can and will be an all-star for the Spurs. He strikes me as a quadruple threat, in the ancient Greek sense: strong in body, mind, heart, and spirit.”
Yes, an astute observation. Part of evaluating a player’s max potential is more holistic and metaphysical in nature (which admittedly is hard to do). If you look at most of the great players (MJ, Kobe, TD, Stockton, Malone, etc.) it really wasn’t their physical attributes or skill-sets that set them apart from their close to equally talented peers. It was the more substantive personal qualities that elevated them to a notch above the rest. I think Blair has those personal qualities, but I can’t confirm for another 2-3 years.
Easy b
September 17th, 2010 at 4:43 am
“…Until proven otherwise though, he is more in the baby Davis league than boozers”
We’re talking reasonable potential & ceilings, not where he was last season as a rookie.
bduran
September 17th, 2010 at 6:08 am
“I think you missed my point a bit. I just meant he’s not going to shoot for the sake of shooting. I expect him to be a player who doesn’t force a ton of shots and and therefore will need to expand his offensive game in order to be able to take more shots. For example, if he never develops a solid jumper I doubt he’ll take a bunch of jumpers.”
Yes, I think you’re right about that.
“Being All Star appearances is not a good method for player evaluation.”
It’s certainly a crude method!
September 17th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
I thought about it some more and maybe there’s one additional guy who he can watch tape of as well. The guy is actually an assistant coach in the NBA, his name is Truck. Leonard “Truck” Robinson.
From 1976-1982 He averaged 18 & 10 with highs of 23 & 16! 6’7 225 that was burly for back then.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/robintr01.html
The name Truck is apt. While DeJuan ain’t Diesel, he’s most certainly Made From Steel, being from Pitt and all. Maybe his nickname should be Steel, because he is, and was a steal.
September 17th, 2010 at 2:17 pm
Assuming RJ & Pop did in fact work out A LOT together this summer, this is an encouraging sign. If RJ can experience a renaissance (14 ppg., 7 rpg., consistent, and much improved focus defensively), that alone improves our chances some. I hope Pop worked RJ’s ass off mentally and physically, and RJ fully embraced it all. We’ll find out by the end of November.
http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/2010/09/betting-on-an-r.html
September 17th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Man In Black
September 17th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
“Leonard “Truck” Robinson.”
Yeah, he is another interesting comparison for Blair. Truck was definitely an underrated dude that could ball!
September 17th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
Expectations run high. And all the comparisons and hope of Blair playing similar to others listed is a convolution formulation to hoping he will become an all star player for the Spurs.
But I like the reality interjected in the original post…
“One area not in the table that he needs to work on, and will with proper development, is fouling. Foul trouble limited Blair’s minutes in a number of games during his rookie season, and 5.4 fouls per 36 minutes is not a good sign.”
Also…
“Needless to say, per 36 minute averages are not the end all, be all of selecting All-Stars. For one, there’s no guarantee that increasing Blair’s minutes will likewise increase his production. Some players are more effective in limited action. With Blair, we have a small sample of very impressive performances in expanded minutes, performances where Blair was not the focal point entering the game. It’s tough to say how good he would have been if the opposing team entered the game prepared for Blair being the number one or number two option offensively.”
Blair never was the focal point as far as scoring option was concerned in college. He just dominated the boards when other options failed to score.
Placing him in a “focal point” situation is something rather new to Blair. And though I’m sure he would relish the opportunity to be that player…there’s no indication he would excell in that capacity.
Thus I can agree with the original post based on intagibles we have not yet witnessed according to how Blair would handle such situations.
But I’m ecstatic he’s on the Spurs and not on another team. I think that experience is only going to make him better. But if Splitter becomes what Pop said he would be “A great NBA player”…there might not be enough room for two “all star” post players on the same team.
Has that ever been accomplished before? Two all star post players on one team?
September 17th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
@rob
Olajowan and Sampson were both on the 85 all star team. Mchale and Parish also played together in an allstar game.(1986)
September 17th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
And Robinson and Duncan!
September 17th, 2010 at 5:09 pm
Larry Nance and Daughtry.
September 17th, 2010 at 5:10 pm
Oakley and Ewing.
Plenty of examples.
September 17th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
“Assuming RJ & Pop did in fact work out A LOT together this summer, this is an encouraging sign”
I’m not sure if I’ve mentioned this here before, but the book “Stumbling on Wins” says that the top two coaches when it comes to player improvement (measured by change in WP48) are Pop and Phil Jackson. Now I’m not sure what, if anything, was done to control for the fact that players under those coaches got to play alongside some of the all time greats. However, I’m cautiously optimistic about a RJ improvement this season.
September 17th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
Both Splitter and Blair can’t primarily play the post. It’s important that either player can play high to the other’s low at times. Splitter is a good enough passer to pass the hi-lo to a shorter Post. Haven’t seen that since when? Malik from Tim? It’s been awhile.
September 17th, 2010 at 7:28 pm
@Man In Black
Fab Oberto was excellent in that regard.
September 17th, 2010 at 7:46 pm
True Andrew, he was the passer, not so much the dunker. Splitter exhibits some of that guile. DeJuan does too, but his results are hit or miss. We need more hit if the Spurs are to really contend. They will contend.
September 17th, 2010 at 9:53 pm
some great comparisons and role models for blair posted here. really shows the breadth of the spurs fan base knowledge.
@jim
yeah, i guess “phenomenally” was pushing it, but i was thinking back to boozer’s rebounding when he came into the league compared to blair’s, and though booze has improved, i think blair is still the better rebounder. fair enough, i wasn’t giving boozer enough credit. btw, how does seeing if blair can play d, score more, for 36+ mins show us he or boozer’s a better rebounder? :p i don’t know if he’ll be better than booze, but i think he could be if he works hard. i may not like boozer’s turncoating ways, but i’ll give him credit for working his tail off to become a good nba undersized 4.
my main point with the parker/blair all-star tangent was that all-star berths are tricky things. we all know how difficult it is for small market players to make it, unless their team is having a great season. even a player as popular as melo was having trouble getting the nod early on (admittedly, i’m not a huge melo backer). if parker re-ups and is the focus of our team three years from now, and our record is middling, i don’t see blair making the team unless he’s putting up phenomenal numbers. i suppose i could’ve made that more clear, but that’s what i was trying to say. i think duncan could make it in the future, even if he’s not playing well anymore, as a legacy. there are always people who aren’t earning those berths, and as much as i’d hate to see tim fizzling out instead of riding off into the sunset like dave, these things happen.
long story short, i think blair has the tools to make an all-star appearance, but there’s plenty of unfavorable variables in the process to say he’ll make it for sure.
September 17th, 2010 at 10:01 pm
http://nbaplaybook.com/2010/09/16/can-he-bounce-back-roger-mason/#more-5492
mason signed for 1.4 mil? i like that letting rmj walk means more time for the youngsters, but i think he’ll revert to better shooting numbers in nyc. good look at a former spur to illustrate the importance of consistency in your shooting though.
September 17th, 2010 at 10:14 pm
rob
September 17th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
“Has that ever been accomplished before? Two all star post players on one team?”
Yes, but usually not in the same year.
That said, I think Blair has a better chance to reach all-star status than Splitter.
andy
September 17th, 2010 at 9:53 pm
“….how does seeing if blair can play d, score more, for 36+ mins show us he or boozer’s a better rebounder?”
Well, it’s just that it’s not always as easy to maintain your rate of productivity in the most dominant facet of your game (i.e., rebounding) as your minutes expand considerably, and you begin to expend more energies in additional areas of your game (e.g., beyond rebounding). So it’s still hard to say at this point whether as a starter some day whether Blair will be much better than Boozer in rpg. It’s possible though.
September 17th, 2010 at 10:36 pm
my money is on our little guard for the all-star thing
September 18th, 2010 at 4:01 am
spursfanbayarea
Great examples of two post players from the same team being all stars. Some how my memory failed me regarding Parish/McHale and Olajowan/Sampson. And I guess the Duncan/Robinson appearance in the 99-00 all star game technically should be counted. But David was far from being a true all star that year.
Enter Splitter and Blair. One year apart from joining the Spurs. Their unknown abilities as of yet to dominate the post like the players you mentioned. And there are a lot more unanswered questions regarding their ability to being all stars than the players you just mentioned.
Boston had a coup the year they got Parish from Golden State being they also managed to draft McHale and were fortunate to have both players in their prime. Could you imagine what the Spurs would have been like if Duncan and Robinson were able to play together in their prime?
Again…too many unanswered variables regarding Blair and Splitter. But hope can remain eternal that both become one of the best 4-5 combinations in the league. But in order to become all stars…they would have to be the “focal point” of performance. For the next few years I think Parker/Ginobili will remain focal points. And who knows how Anderson is going to develop.
Come to think of it…the Spurs have quietly done a great job at revamping the team with potentially great players for the future. All of which have the “potential” to becoming all stars. But none of which have proven anything as of yet.
September 18th, 2010 at 4:14 am
By the way spursfanbayarea
…I wasn’t saying that you said they would become all stars. I was just pointing out how difficult it would be for both to become all stars playing for the Spurs if they were not to become the focal point(s) on this team.
September 18th, 2010 at 4:53 am
Go Spurs Go!!
September 18th, 2010 at 6:46 am
@rob
I wasn’t answering the question of whether they would be all stars or not. You asked if it happened before. I just gave some examples of when 2 post players made the all star team in the same year. Duncan and Robinson were allstar teammates 3 times(98,00,01).
@Jim
The examples I gave were all allstar teammates in the same years.
September 18th, 2010 at 9:57 am
Come on. There is almost no chance that Splitter and Blair both wind up as All-Stars ever. For that to happen there would have to be some kind of big-man flu that just wipes out every other forward and center in the conference, somehow skipping over SA. One of these guys has never even played in the NBA.
This is not necessarily a knock on the Spurs - even the Clippers have a current All-Star at C and a No. 1 overall draft pick at PF. Half the WC rosters have legitimate All Star potential in the frontcourt.
So, would anyone like to bet on this?
September 18th, 2010 at 10:35 am
spursfanbayarea
September 18th, 2010 at 6:46 am
“The examples I gave were all allstar teammates in the same years.”
Yes, good examples, but as I said, not many separate pairs over 20 years. Duncan & Robinson were probably the best 4/5 combo in NBA history.
B Burke
September 18th, 2010 at 9:57 am
“So, would anyone like to bet on this?”
You’re right. It’s VERY unlikely that BOTH Splitter and Blair become all-stars, even more so in the same year.
September 18th, 2010 at 11:38 am
spursfanbayarea
“I wasn’t answering the question of whether they would be all stars or not.”
I know that.
Hence my response…
“I wasn’t saying that you said they would become all stars. I was just pointing out how difficult it would be for both to become all stars playing for the Spurs if they were not to become the focal point(s) on this team.”
…because I could see how my earlier response could sound like I was interpreting that’s what you said.
And as I admitted…I had forgotten about Parish/McHale, Duncan/Robinson. Though I still contend that Robinson was on the decline when Timmy started playing for the Spurs. Still…Robinson was “admirable” in letting Duncan become the main focus and all star early in his career. Will Duncan do the same if Blair or Splitter show the same promise?
September 18th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
@rob
” Will Duncan do the same if Blair or Splitter show the same promise?”
I definitely believe that Duncan would do the same if splitter and blair were all star capable. Duncan is at the twilight of his career. He already has sacrificed minutes and stats for the betterment of the team. Duncan in his prime could have scored more at the expense of winning. Duncan has always done whatever was needed to win. Duncan is very effective in the minutes he plays and could be even more effective with a solid big man next to him. If there was a post player better than duncan that player would be guarded by opposing teams best big. Duncan would then get to go against a teams second best defensive big which would favor him. Also in a few years duncan will be 37 years old. At that age you definetly can not be a go to guy for 36 plus minutes.
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