A Look at the Austin Experiment in Houston

by Jesse Blanchard

Over the course of the season Gregg Popovich has shuffled through 20 different lineups with varying degrees of success, or in the case of Friday night’s lineup, lack thereof.

A degree in advanced NBA statistics or a talk with Wayne Winston isn’t necessary to conclude a box score in which three of the five starters read zeros across their stat lines is a failure. Duncan scored 17 points in the first half, and the Spurs were still out of contention in the game.

In a previous post discussing DeJuan Blair I wrote that players that can absorb NBA minutes is a valuable commodity over the course of a long season, even if they are not part of the playoff rotation. With the continued inconsistencies of some our veterans it’s getting harder to argue players like Michael Finley or Keith Bogans still have that ability. So do we have anyone else on our roster who can?

The Spurs have invested a lot of time and resources into the Austin Toros, conceivably to develop such players. Yet Friday’s garbage time (against the Rockets’ starters) was one of the few times we have seen Malik Hairston and Ian Mahinmi get extended run in a meaningful game.

There probably isn’t enough of a data sample for Winston or any other statistical analyst to conclude that either are viable rotation players, but there are a few things we can take a look at in Hairston and Mahinmi’s limited run. So what did they do with their time?

  • Hairston entered the game in the third quarter with 5:54 remaining and the Spurs trailing 72-49 after a pair of free throws. On his first play he received a swing pass and immediately drove by Luis Scola, who was caught rotating out to him, for a layup.
  • After drawing an offensive foul on a Rockets’ moving screen, Hairston was involved in a pick and roll with Blair that resulted in a pass with no advantage, or no gain.
  • Near the 4:30 mark in the third quarter the Rockets set up a dribble handoff between Scola and Kevin Martin, only Hairston (who is defending Martin) comes up too high, too early and loses Martin on a backdoor cut. Bonner, recognizing the action, switches to Martin, which would have been a disaster of a matchup if Hairston doesn’t foul Scola before a pass is made. Scola makes both free throws.
  • Hairston is then presented with a pick and roll opportunity with Blair at the top of the key. Scola shows on the screen but as Martin recovers, Hairston uses a simple left to right crossover to get a layup.
  • On the Rockets ensuing offensive possession they isolate Martin and Hairston on the wing. Martin makes a wild spin move at the elbow, creates no separation and is blocked by Hairston.
  • The Rockets run pick and roll action with Brooks/Hayes defended by Mason/Bonner. As Brooks begins his penetration, Bogans rotates over from the weak side to protect the baseline, leaving Blair on Scola (top) and Hairston to account for Martin (wing) and Budinger (corner). Hairston fails to rotate or close out on Martin, who hits the wide open three.
  • On the first play of the fourth quarter the Spurs run a pick and roll between Bonner and Hairston. Hairston is able to turn the corner on Battier and draws enough attention for Blair to tip in the rebound uncontested.
  • At the 9:30 mark in the fourth, the Rockets set up a triangle look with Battier holding the ball up top, Brooks/Mason on the wing, and Budinger/Hairston on the block. On the weak side, Scola is keeping Blair at the elbow, away from the rim.
    Budinger leaves the block to set a back screen for Brooks and Hairston again shows too high, too early, as if he is denying an entry pass to Budinger. This leaves no backside help for Mason, who is taken out with Budinger’s screen with Hairston in no position to prevent the backdoor layup for Brooks.
  • Mahinmi enters the game with 7 minutes remaining and the score 96-81. The Rockets immediately go to a Brooks/Scola, Hill/Mahinmi pick and roll. Ian shows hard and forces Brooks to pick up his dribble and make a harmless pass to Martin several feet behind the three-point line.
    Martin is then isolated on Hairston, drives left and travels as he tries to jump into Hairston to draw a foul.
  • With a little more than six minute left, the Rockets again go to the Brooks/Scola pick and roll, Ian and Hill again trap, forcing a harmless pass to Martin on the wing. Martin immediately drives on Hairston, who forces him into an off balanced shot that is blocked by a recovering Mahinmi.
  • At the 5:28 mark Mahinmi and Hill trap another Brooks pick and roll, forcing him to retreat back to the halfcourt line where he makes a pass for no advantage. Later in the possession Scola posts Ian and scores on an up and under.
  • 4:52-Mahinmi sets two poor screens but receives a pass in traffic on the move and finishes a three-point play.
  • 4:32-Mahinmi bites on a jumper upfake from Scola and fouls him.
  • 4:27-Hairston runs a screen and roll with Mahinmi, gets to the basket and misses the layup but follows his own miss.
  • 3:10-Rockets go to the same combination pick and roll, this time on the wing. Mahinmi shows and halts penetration, but Brooks crosses Hill as he recovers and pulls up to hit a three.
  • The Spurs then run a pick and roll with Mahinmi and Mason. Mahinmi finally sets a good screen for Mason, forcing the defense to collapse. Mason kicks it out to Jefferson, who attacks the scrambling defense while Mahinmi seals off the help defense for Jefferson’s uncontested layup.
  • 2:35-Martin is isolated on Hairston again, never creates separation and is turned away by Hairston and Mahinmi.
  • 2:29-Hairston steals a jump ball, draws a foul, misses both free throws.
  • 2:08-Luis Scola slips the screen on the pick and roll but Mahinmi and Hill trap Brooks hard, forcing him to retreat and make a pass for no advantage.
  • 1:50-Mahinmi taps an offensive rebound to the sideline, which Hairston saves to Hill for the score (105-98).
  • 0:43-Mahinmi offensive rebound, fouled, 1-for-2 from the line.
  • 0:08-Hairston offensive rebound and pass to Hill for three.
  • 0:03-Mahinmi offensive rebound, tip-in.

Fans have been clamoring for an extended look at the Toros “Big Two” (their “Big Three” ended when the Spurs released Marcus Williams) for some time now, but did these performances merit an extended look?

Hairston is probably further along than Mahinmi in gaining a rotation spot, though one can still see why Popovich still hasn’t inserted him into the rotation. His team and pick and roll defense were exploited twice for backdoor cuts and once for a three-pointer.

Still, the Rockets isolated one of the league’s better scorers, Martin, on Hairston five times and came away with no points. Martin is considered an efficient scorer, even though his field goal percentage (9-24) can be terrible, because he can hit threes in bunches and gets to the free throw line.

Martin was 14-14 for the game from the line and the starting backcourt of Hill (6 fouls) and Bogans (four fouls in 14 minutes) each spent time on Martin contributing to that. Hairston, meanwhile, had Martin five times without fouling (no matter how hard Martin tried to draw one, or how bad he looked).

Offensively, Hairston was able to use his athleticism to get to the rim on straight-line drives but did not show much creativity. To fit into the Spurs system and contribute, he will have to show he has a catch and shoot game.

To be fair, in Austin he was shooting 41% from the three-point line, but there is a big difference in open threes in the D-League and in the NBA.

Mahinmi is still too foul prone (three in 10 minutes) to depend on and he still leaves a lot to be desired in terms of discipline in man-to-man defense. But oh that pick and roll defense. That was pretty damn impressive.

Brooks is one of the quickest guards in the NBA and he repeatedly torched the Spurs pick and roll defense through three quarters, often splitting the trap.

In Mahinmi’s time in the fourth quarter the Rockets involved him in five pick and roll situations, gaining only a marginal advantage on a Brooks three-pointer which is hard to fault Mahinmi with. The other four times Mahinmi and Hill were able to force Brooks to retreat or make a pass to no advantage.

Most fans think of Mahinmi in terms of shot blocking and protecting the rim, but it’s here that he shows the least discipline. But watching a seven-footer stay in front of and coral Brooks on the perimeter and then recover to the rim, that was a revelation.

Their games are flawed enough where it’s hard to project them in a playoff rotation or as consistent difference makers this year. But each provides an NBA skill that the rest of our rotation has lacked all season, and over the course of the long season with minutes occupied by players who haven’t been producing with them, that’s got to count for something.

  • Jim Miller (jimjule)

    This is reallly a good in depth look at two players of the future for the Spurs. I would favor increased use of Mahinmi, even with his inexperience and faults, because he helps on defense around the bucket and is an above average rebounder. The Spurs really need help in both of these areas. Hairston may be more polished, but the Spurs are heavy at he positions he can play. Give Mahinmi more floor time.

  • Javier

    As a longtime Austin resident, recently transplanted, and longtime Spurs fan, I think it is time for a new generation in the rotation. There is NOTHING to be gained by continue to play Bogans or Bonner…

  • Mason

    I’ll take a guy with no “catch and shoot game” over a guy who can’t play D and hasn’t made a basket since God knows when.

    I’ll also take a guy who’s undisciplined defensively over a guy who will get you 4 rebounds in 25 minutes and miss all four of his 15 ft jumpers.

    Finley, McDyess, Bonner, and Bogans aren’t going to do anything or us this post season. So what is there to lose in developing the younger players?

  • POP

    Good analysis here, kid. Just wanted to say hello to my fans before the game. As you said, Mahinmi and Hairston are not my little robots yet. We have to stay the course. Michael does not miss rotations and has a clean locker, BonBon is very disciplined on his man to man defense. I love his effort, I think effort should always be rewarded. Those two are solid, character NBA players. Discipline is the key to success in this league. Discipline, character, humility. Those are the key words, kids. Athleticism, heart and creativity, you do not need those to succeed as a basketball player. Let’s stay the course, maybe today BonBon will play a lick of a D and Keith will start to play like Bruce. I have patience. And trust me kids, I know what I am doing.

  • rj

    i would rather still see these guys develop than see our veterans continue to waste away on a nightly basis. mahinmi’s presence inpeded brooks and martin’s penetration and hairston was the only guy who could stay in front of martin.

    considering how our season is going, it doesn’t make sense not to give these guys minutes. our veterans aren’t getting it done any way. can we really do any worse by playing these guys? really….

  • rj

    and who do you think you are pretending to be pop, POP?

  • http://www.acraterintheclouds.blogspot.com GMT

    My thoughts exactly, Mason.

  • Ivander

    That lineup against Houston was by war the worst I have seen the entire season! Bogans AND Finley starting …reallly??? I watched 2/3 of the game and decided much too late that I’d be better to switch off the TV and go to bed.
    I hope the Spurs will play some D tonight against the Suns or we will be burned very badly!!!
    Go Spurs—GO!!

  • Ivander

    sorry, I meant by FAR

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  • VP of Common Sense

    It’s happened a few times now, What the hell is Parker doing attacking with 5+ seconds left on the clock when the Spurs have the last shot?

    He seems as rusty mentally this season as he is physically.

  • idahospur

    So when do NBA teams lock down a starting five? Pop might as well pick names out of a hat to determine this team. It would be pretty exciting if he had one of those Bingo ball selectors to pick the team and can have it sit next to him during the game? Who will sub in for Duncan right now….Bogans!

  • Jim Henderson

    I’d like you to do the same analysis of the Houston game for Bogans, Finley, McDyess, Bonner, & Mason, then get back to me. The offensive & defensive errors/lapses you point out for Hairston/Mahinmi happen all too often with these VETERANS, and they’ve had PLENTY of opportunity to STOP it. Unfortunately, they apparently don’t have the HUNGER & DRIVE to fix their problems. And their production simply sucked.

    And we don’t have ANY time to wait anymore for a fix from these guys, unless you want the team’s playoff experience this year to be watching on TV. Hairston, on the other hand, has not had nearly the chance to fix the lapses you point out as the veterans mentioned above, but at least he’s coachable & gives 100% effort any time he’s on the court.

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  • doggydogworld

    Good analysis and I would also like to see you break down Bogans, Finley, etc. in the same way. Not just this game but maybe a couple of other recent weak first quarters.

    You missed the play where Malik gave a little “flinch” move as Martin brought the ball upcourt, causing Martin to step out of bounds. Can’t give Malik full credit for a steal there but it showed he was in Martin’s head.

    Ian reminded me of Francisco Elson on those pick and rolls. In fact, a lot about Ian reminds me of Francisco.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    In my ongoing conversations with Wayne Winston, we’re both astonished that Michael Finley and Keith Bogans see floor time. Yet, they both started against the Rockets. Huh? Really? Basically, I’m running what I see with my eyes up against the backdrop of Winston’s database. In a recent exchange, I asked, rhetorically, if there was a worse possible scenario for the Spurs than playing Bogans and Finley together. Winston’s response, “I agree. [the combination of] Finley and Bogans is a disaster.” Bogans, Winston pointed out, has an overall rating of -7; this means the Spurs are 7 points worse than average when Bogans is on the floor.

    So I ask you, can Malik Hairston hurt? He might not be an improvement over Bogans/Finley, but I don’t see much of an argument for looking past him. Let’s find out. I understand why Popovich has tried over 20 starting lineups this season. Pop’s inability to find a good series of lineups is implicit confirmation of Winston’s data. His gut knows. I’m all for further experimentation.

  • Blofeld

    Just got back from the Suns game. Finley got a DNP-CD, and bogus Bogans and Bonner barely saw floor time - and hey, we won! Coincidence????

  • BALLHOG

    No. Its no coincidence. Spurs are weak with Bogans and Bonner logging any more than 6 to 8 minutes per game, if any.

    Hairston and Mahinmi getting into the Houston game and playing decent basketball, was like a shot in the arm for Coach Pop. It sent a message that Caoch coulnt quite send.

    Its just like in the NFL. Starting players dont want thier back ups in the game.

    Its just not good for business. These young Spurs come in and start playing well and suddenly there are a few unhappy veterans on our roster, lil bit worried, looking over thier shoulders…

    In the Phoenix game, I saw a motivated Spurs team. They wanted to be effective in this game. Even Jefferson looked like himself for a change.

    Dont count RJ out just yet. Lets not forget that he is a baller. He let Pop neuter him initially, but I think he is regainng his gonads.

    If he rediscovers his game and Ginnobli gains a lil consistency, we could man up after all. Add Mahinmi and Hairston to the mix and all of a sudden, we contend again.

    Oh my,

    We might have had a breakthrough.

    Now, if we can play a little zone defense, we might start beating some folks.

    Somebody send a note to Pop. “Teams are drawing Duncan out of the paint and killing us in the lane….Layups galore, reqbouds, second chance buckets, etc…

    The agony…

  • Jim Henderson

    The following excerpt is from the body of the post itself:

    “Offensively, Hairston was able to use his athleticism to get to the rim on straight-line drives but did not show much creativity. To fit into the Spurs system and contribute, he will have to show he has a catch and shoot game.”

    I find this “excuse” (implicitly at least) not to upgrade Hairston’s role unconvincing for the following reasons.

    Number ONE, if Hairston’s not given the opportunity to “catch & shoot” we won’t know if he has a “catch & shoot game”, will we? And 41% shooting from 3-pt. land, even in the D-League, indicates some potential in the “catch & shoot” area.

    Number TWO, does anyone on this blog really think Bogans, our current starter at SF, has a “catch & shoot” game? He might have one, but it certainly ain’t very good. In fact, I’d be willing to bet that Bogans is under 35% shooting from the perimeter! Also, is there anything wrong with a Spur SF taking the rock to the rack a little more often? Would that violate the “Spurs System”? And we all know that Hairston is more adept at taking it strong to the rack than Bogans, and this also happens to be the very activity that we’ve been upset RJ hasn’t done more of.

  • http://48minutesofhell.com Jesse Blanchard

    “In a previous post discussing DeJuan Blair I wrote that players that can absorb NBA minutes is a valuable commodity over the course of a long season, even if they are not part of the playoff rotation. With the continued inconsistencies of some our veterans it’s getting harder to argue players like Michael Finley or Keith Bogans still have that ability. So do we have anyone else on our roster who can?”

    Here I point out that Keith Bogans and Michael Finley have been useless this season. To absorb NBA minutes, I’m talking about just being a replacement level player this season. Most free agents off the scrap heap would do. But this article was more about evaluating Hairston and Mahinmi, strengths and weaknesses from this game.

    “Their games are flawed enough where it’s hard to project them in a playoff rotation or as consistent difference makers this year. But each provides an NBA skill that the rest of our rotation has lacked all season, and over the course of the long season with minutes occupied by players who haven’t been producing with them, that’s got to count for something.”

    In other words, give them some shots.

  • Jim Henderson

    Jesse, I enjoyed this post. It was a nice opportunity to see descriptions & analysis of player performance, including the nuances & fundamentals of the game. I for one, know that there are weaknesses and “flaws” to Hairston & Mahinmi’s game. Believe me, Pop would have been playing them more this season if there weren’t. That said, if you didn’t see it, here’s my previous comment on this post, which provides some context to my position:

    Jim Henderson
    February 28th, 2010 at 11:21 am

    “I’d like you to do the same analysis of the Houston game for veterans Bogans, Finley, McDyess, Bonner, & Mason, then get back to me, if possible. The offensive & defensive errors/lapses you point out for Hairston/Mahinmi happen all too often with these VETERANS, and they’ve had PLENTY of opportunity to STOP it. Unfortunately, they apparently don’t have the HUNGER & DRIVE to fix their problems. And their production has simply sucked.

    And we don’t have ANY time to wait anymore for a fix from these guys, unless you want the team’s playoff experience this year to be watching on TV. Hairston, on the other hand, has not had nearly the chance to fix the lapses you point out as the veterans mentioned above have, but at least he’s coachable & gives 100% effort any time he’s on the court.”

    Then, in my most recent comment above, I pointed out that I took issue with a particular section of your post, in particular the following brief excerpts, and specifically as it relates to Hairston (Mahinmi is less polished in my view):

    “To fit into the Spurs system and contribute, he will have to show he has a catch and shoot game.”

    “Their games are flawed enough where it’s hard to project them in a playoff rotation or as consistent difference makers this year.”

    I just thought your post (perhaps not intentionally) implicitly favored continuing to play someone like Bogans (since he’s been starting, or in the rotation from the beginning) over Hairston (because of his “flaws”), since Hairston is really the only player that could conceivably replace Bogans in the rotation at SF. So I simply pointed out that some of your conclusions from your analysis (e.g., that because of Hairston’s “flaws” it’s improbable that he could crack the “rotation this year”) cannot be supported without also providing analysis of Bogans minutes in the Houston game. I suspect there we’re numerous “flaws” in his game, similar to the “fundamental” flaws you exposed in Hairston’s performance (but would love to see your analysis), such as, “his team and pick and roll defense were exploited twice for backdoor cuts and once for a three-pointer.” (not to mention that Bogans production was utterly worthless compared to Hairston’s).

    So, in my view, the question at this point remains, why wouldn’t Hairston be strongly considered to replace Bogans in the rotation at this point, after 56 games of data that unequivocally point to a FAILED Bogans’ experiment, and with our play-off slot clearly in jeopardy?

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