Thursday, July 30th, 2009...8:50 am
A Note of Caution: Work to be Done
On his latest podcast, Bill Simmons talks offseason with Marc Stein and Ric Bucher. It gets a little catty, and each man wins points here and there. When the talk turned to the obligatory “Who will win the title?” question, I was surprised to hear each man offer support for the Spurs (Bucher throws Boston into the conversation, but only because Stein and Simmons had already selected San Antonio).
The picks were qualified under the assumption that Lamar Odom moves house to Miami, and I suspect their picks are early indicators of a forthcoming October trend. But let me say, as someone who chronicles the Spurs, there is reason for caution.
We’re not out of July yet, and I’m already ready to name R.C. Buford 2009/10′s most accomplished executive. When he receives his due, someone should impose a zero over the nine, making the trophy good for 2000-2010. More than any other offseason, he’s lived up to his reputation this summer. The Spurs get an A+ for their summer haul, but they’re a long way from home.
I’m with Pop. The Lakers are still the favorites. The reason for this is simple: continuity. In some ways, it’s more difficult to work in new talent than it is to recover from the loss of talent. It’s a players league, but players flounder or flourish based on their ability to succeed within a system. Did anyone doubt that A.I. would provide fewer answers in Detroit or Shawn Marion would slip out of his matrix in Miami? The Spurs are adroit surveyors of talent, always picking the right players, players who fit what they do. But every executive has a margin of error, and you never really know a team’s capabilities until you see it on the court.
A couple weeks ago I wrote that the upcoming season is on Coach Popovich. To crib a line from Biggie Smalls, mo’ talent, mo’ problems. Granted, they’re the right problems to have. Pop is up to his neck in talent, but it’s a swamp from shoulder to toe.
Teaching the System
It’s frequently said that the Spurs’ system takes a full season to learn, with new acquisitions playing better as sophomores than freshmen. That can’t be the case this season. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are too old for Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair to spend the year in training wheels. Pop and his staff must accelerate the learning curve. A home run training camp is a must.
The Spurs are fortunate that most of their young players have learned the system, either as a Spur or Toro. George Hill should be fine. To my mind, Ian Mahinmi, Malik Hairston and Marcus Williams will brand the Toros an unqualified success if they’re able to give the Spurs minutes without flubbing defensive rotations. (It’s not part of the national conversation, but an incredibly important storyline for the upcoming season is the Austin Toros. The strength of Spurs’ bench is largely contingent on the ability of former Toros to make the transition from the D-League to the Association.)
Incorporating the Young Players
Our readers are hip to the Spurs’ current youth movement. Casual fans and broad stroke national writers will pick up the scent come February, but for now consider that next year’s roster is likely to feature George Hill (23), Ian Mahinmi (22), DeJuan Blair (20), Malik Hairston (22), and Marcus Williams (22). It’s not a stretch to project four of those five into the regular season rotation. In addition, newcomers Richard Jefferson (29) and Marcus Haislip (28) are still on the right side of 30. Jefferson is a lock for heavy minutes and Haislip will challenge Matt Bonner for the right to play the role of Robert Horry.
But Popovich prefers vets. If he had his way, the team would be old as dirt every season. But the Spurs see the limits of such preferences, and they’ve clearly tipped their hat toward more youth and athleticism. This will seem odd, but the Spurs’ championship aspirations hang more on George Hill, DeJuan Blair and Ian Mahinmi than we think. The additions of Jefferson and McDyess bring the Spurs even, or just ahead, of the league’s top teams in terms of talent. But those additions simply even the score, they’re not go ahead runs.
If the Spurs create significant separation between themselves and their competition, it will be because their young players exceed expectations. Ian Mahinmi has to show that he belongs in a league that includes Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess and Theo Ratliff.
It’s in the team’s best interest for Pop to commit minutes to his 20-somethings, even at the cost of sacrificing regular season wins to develop them for the playoffs. Pop’s recourse to George Hill in the final two games of Mavericks series is an indicator that he gets it. His willingness to walk away from Kurt Thomas, Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto seals the conviction. Now Pop must roll up his sleeves and transform Malik Hairston into a productive reserve.
Managing Minutes
Tony Parker is playing international ball this summer. Manu Ginobili is frail. Antonio McDyess is durable, but old. Tim Duncan’s legs need plenty of rest. How many regular season minutes should the Spurs give to each of them? Should the Spurs sit their core on alternating nights during back to backs? That is, on a Friday-Saturday back to back, let Parker and McDyess have Friday off, and give Duncan and Ginobili extended pine on Saturday. The Spurs flirted with this possibility last season, and given the age and odometer of their core, it seems like a prudent policy for the upcoming season.
Taking such an approach to back to backs also gives Popovich an opportunity to place an onus to win on his young players while allowing himself more than enough opportunity to evaluate their potential contribution to the team. It’s a win-win policy.
Finding a Rotation
Let’s just consider the frontline: Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair will command most of the minutes, but obviously you don’t want to play Duncan or McDyess too much. The 4th and, potentially, 5th spots in the big rotation are up for grabs. Ian Mahinmi, Matt Bonner, Marcus Haislip, and Theo Ratliff are the contenders.
The only way to figure out who should play is through trial and error. We’re left to watch Popovich watch the team. I’m confident we’ll have many “Ugh, why did Pop play Bonner so many minutes last night?” moments next season. And Popovich is certain to walk away from games thinking, “I’ll never play those two together again.” This season’s quest for a rotation is challenging because no one, including Pop, knows how the retooled frontline will gel, what players like Haislip and Mahinmi bring to the table, or how much, say, Ratliff has left in the tank. Up to the point of Drew Gooden, last season’s frontcourt was an entirely known quantity.
Staying Healthy
If Pop can get all the new guys up to speed, incorporate the young players, and effectively manage the minutes of his core, he still needs to get lucky. Everything hinges on the Spurs’ health in April, May and June.
Related to this, a Fanpost at Pounding the Rock asks a provocative question: Does Gregg Popovich owe it to Peter Holt to go for home court advantage. As most fans know, Pop is notoriously unconcerned about whether the Spurs play at home or on the road in the playoffs. Ultimately, they have to win on the road, so he treats the question as a non-issue. But what if the question of home court advantage is not about playoff wins and losses; what if home court advantage is about the box office revenue associated with a 3rd or 4th game at home?
I’d like to think that Popovich doesn’t feel these pressures, and there is absolutely no indications that Peter Holt imposes them. If Holt has demonstrated anything to the team’s fans, it’s that his commitment to winning trumps his commitment to the bottom line. One could say that in this case a commitment to winning works in concert with a commitment to the bottomline. But that all hinges on a point of semantics-a commitment to regular season wins is not the same thing as a commitment to winning. It means nothing to the Spurs to win 64 rather than 60 regular season games. That’s not a commitment to winning. It’s a commitment to wins. A commitment to winning means championships. The Spurs are wise enough to know the difference.
Still, having said all that, Pop knows the score. R.C. Buford has assembled the talent, Peter Holt is picking up the check. It’s on him to get the team through.
63 Comments
July 30th, 2009 at 9:01 am
Great write up Tim. I would rather that Simmons and all the ESPN analysts keep their mouth shut about the Spurs. I prefer sneaking up on people rather than everyone assuming we’re gonna win from the get-go.
On a side note, you posted in the past that we owe it to Holt for ignoring the luxury tax and giving every expense to field a competitive team, I was wondering if you would post something about how fans who can’t make it down to San Antonio could help. I’ve heard the suggestion: “Buy merchandise.” But which ones and from where?
July 30th, 2009 at 9:42 am
Please note that Spurs won their first championship on the road as well as their most recent one. There really hasn’t been much complaint about it from what I hear, Peter Holt is a class-act owner.
Anyways, I can’t help but think that the onus of much of the learning will be on McDyess and Jefferson. I don’t know how Pop will fit McDyess in, but I get the feeling that Jefferson will be watching a lot of tape of Sean Elliot or something. I’m interested to see how Haislip, Mahinmi, and Blair pan out. That will probably be the biggest question. Remember that Pop has played with as few as 3 big men in his rotation before (Duncan, Robinson, and Malik Rose), of course, three of them are All-Stars and one of them a Hall of Famer, nonetheless, I think Pop knows how to manage minutes well, the question is, is that given that, can people be effective with limited minutes.
July 30th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Good stuff. It’s quality posts like this that make me want to buy Tim and Graydon a beer. Make that two beers — I wouldn’t expect you guys to share a single beer (even in this economy).
I especially like the point (common sense, but worth repeating) that resting the stars during back-to-backs provides not just playing time, but QUALITY playing time for the youngsters who Pop might otherwise have a tendency to let rot on the bench.
On the subject of “sneaking up” — I really think that’s a concern that’s slightly misplaced. The Spurs may be a small market team that struggles at times to get the respect it deserves from a national audience, but they’re not going to “sneak up” on any NBA team. Other teams know what the Spurs are about. As their coaches gameplan against the Spurs, they’re not going to look at our roster and ignore the talent that’s jumping off the page at them.
That said, I still think the Spurs will “sneak up” on the average NBA fan, because while the Spurs are taking the necessary time to gel during the season, one of the other contenders will start of 30-2 (or whatever) and become the media darling and new favorite to win the championship.
July 30th, 2009 at 9:55 am
Great commentary! I was also a bit surprised to hear Bill Simmons and Marc Stein pick the Spurs as THE preseason favorite, but they recognize improvement when they see it. Let’s hope the new guys can pick up the system quickly in training camp and then use the regular season to gain “battle” experience. I’m not too worried about McDyess, Jefferson, and Ratliff since they are intelligent veterans, but I am worried that Blair and Haislip may take a while. Would it be a stretch to say that next year will be the biggest test of Pop’s coaching career?
July 30th, 2009 at 10:16 am
As usual, well written and thoughtful analysis. I particularly liked how you crystalized the importance of the Toro pipeline. If all goes to plan, a sizable portion of the new additions will be coming down the learning curve as opposed to climbing it.
Depending on the success of the pipeline system, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more teams trying to replicate. To date, I believe the only other team the owns a D-League franchise is the Lakers.
July 30th, 2009 at 10:21 am
I agree that the Spurs don’t sneak up on teams.. just the average fan who thinks “there too old, injured, finished..” yadda yadda yadda.
People who actually know b-ball realize as long as Pop and Duncan are in the league the Spurs will be in contention for the title.
July 30th, 2009 at 10:59 am
The Thunder own the Tulsa NBDL team and Houston is taking over a team through a new NBA program. Houston doesn’t own the team but does control it to some degree.
I haven’t listened to the podcast yet but it is on my zune. With all the hype surrounding the other big guns I am pleasantly surprised that the Spurs are getting some love.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:01 am
I just hope that the young guys (esp the bigs) make an effort to make the most of Duncan, McDyess, and Ratliff as great on-court mentors and out-of-game resources for development.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:05 am
CGD,
Actualy, there are four teams in the NBA that own D-League teams.
Lakers - Los Angeles D-Fenders
Spurs - Austin Toros
Thunder - Tulsa 66ers
Rockets - Rio Grande Valley Vipers
July 30th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Can someone tell me where in the podcast they talk about this? Don’t want to listen to the whole thing.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Bret,
15 or 20 minutes into the second part.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Great writeup. During that podcast, I was hoping they would break down the Spurs acquisitions a bit more instead of focusing on how the Lakers screwed things up. But the Lakers are the champs, so they get the press. Simmons also commented on the Spurs and their front office expertise in Part 2 of his recent “Recap of the NBA offseason and ‘Almost Famous’” article. Jump down to point 36. It could basically be summarized as: “The Spurs front office is ten times smarter than everyone else out there. It’s not even fair how good they are.”
And I have to agree. The outright theft of Blair in the draft was the killer for me. I know several Bulls fans that were absolutely drooling over Blair only to watch him slide on by. They now express their hatred of our ‘insanely well-run organization’ to me on a daily basis.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:34 am
Great read guys. I couldn’t agree more. I sure hope this team gels quickly and gets the system down. I’ll be very upset if the Spurs cannot capitalize on this talent grab.
July 30th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Tydus/Krista,
Thanks for clearing that up. Indeed, in Aug. 2008 OKC became the third team to purchase a DL team. I’m not surprised with Presti at the helm. (see: http://my.nba.com/thread.jspa?threadID=5700018738).
Last month Houston entered into a novel “single affiliate partnership” with the Vipers. Apparently, this may provide NBA teams with more player/coaching control than the existing partnership scheme without obligating them to assume financial control. (see: http://my.nba.com/thread.jspa?threadID=5700039429)
The BB player development business has always excited me, and I believe it is only in its infancy. I often wonder whether it would make smart business sense for NBA teams to affiliate with/buy smaller European clubs (for those MLS followers, think Chivas USA or Real Salt Lake).
I’m not sure what the NBA regs. have to say on the matter. However, I see the opportunity in developing (and marketing) players in Europe as products of an “NBA system,” and then selling them mid/upper tier European contenders for generous transfer fees. All the while the Spurs can scout certain foreign prospects, and keep the ones they like.
July 30th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
I agree wholeheartedly with the save minutes for vets for the playoffs and incorporate minutes for new additions. But, the question is how to accomplish it. I’ve propose a radical idea, for the 1st half of the season, 45 games or so, the Spurs have a set, minute allotment, rotatation.
Vets like McDyess, Jefferson, Ratliff know b-ball and should mesh easily like Garnett, Allen, Posey did in Boston. But, the unknowns - Blair, Haslip, Hairston, Mahinmi, need guaranteed minutes.
For example, @ the SG position, Mason plays the 1st 6 minutes of every qtr and Ginobili gets the last 6 minutes of every qtr.
Or McDyess only plays the 1st 6 minutes of the 1st and 2nd qtr, and the last 6 minutes of the 3rd qtr and 4th qtr.(To ensure he and Ginobili are scheduled on the floor for crunch time, but can be benched in blowouts or last 2 minutes of a known win.)
Radical idea, tell Ratliff, you’ll never play in a 1st half for the 1st 45 games. Ratliff plays the 1st 6 minutes of the 3rd and 4th qtr for McDyess only.
And rotate for 5 game stretches the last 6 minutes of the 1st and 2nd qtr for McDyess for Mahinmi, then Blair, then Haslip.
That way players can play thru mistakes and see a set amount of time on the floor to prove themselves as valuable. Maybe Pop calls a TO to bite their heads off but he can’t bench them. Maybe we sacrifice some wins early in the season, but the goal is two-fold. 1.)Save minutes for vets to be fresh for playoffs 2.)Speed the acclimation and indocrination process for the new additions.
So, for the 1st 45 games, Mason, McDyess, Ginobili never play more than 24 min a game and Ratliff never more than 12. 3 or 4 players would be scheduled on the floor at a set time and Popovich could choose what 1 or 2 players should be on the floor based on matchups or what’s needed.
I think the depth and versatility of the team,Pop needs to consider a set minute schedule. Just like people take out a set amount for retirement in a paycheck or the DMV does voter registeration for new residents getting new state licenses. Popovich needs a systematic approach to reach his goals, I think a set minute schedule for the 1st half of the season would be the way to go.
July 30th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Through what Simmons has said in the podcast and written recently is that the Spurs were the only championship-level team that made vast improvements while the rest of the teams “washed.” Simmons also notes that the core 8 of Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Hill, Mason, and Blair make the best rotation of any Duncan-era teams. Most NBA teams rotate 8-9 guys so the rest of the team may be to cover injuries, back-to-backs, or step in on blow-out games.
I usually count the reigning champs in any sport as the best bet for next season until I see evidence to the contrary. Simmons comments that Artest is more of a problem and does not do what Ariza did for them this past year and letting Odom go would make the Lakers highly vulnerable.
The biggest help the Spurs need this year is health from that core 8 previously listed but we do have some help from the remaining 7. Finley still comes up in the end, Bonner impressed me and many others last year, and the additions to the team hopefully will fill their role well.
It may be advantageous to go for that #1 spot in the West, but the costs of this struggle must be analyzed. It may be more beneficial to get some much needed rest near the end of the season rather than try to get that 65th win. This will have to be determined based on how the rest of the league does.
July 30th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
First off, thank you for bringing me back to Earth on this. All these things I’ve been reading and hearing lately started to get me overly hyped about the Spurs winning the Championship. I heard the Bill Simmons podcast and then read the article on Pop expecting a championship. Just got me a little big headed but this bursted my bubble…in a good way.
Great article Graydon. Coach Pop is a genius and I trust that he will incorporate the new guys, spread around the minutes and all the things you’ve said. By no means is it going to be easy, but if there’s a coach in all professional sports that can accomplish this goal, it’s Gregg Popovich. And of course the Spurs vets like Timmy, Manu, Parker, Finley, hell even Bonner can help give the younger guys some pointers on the Spurs system if they need it. And then our young big men can get some NBA big men tips from Duncan, McDyess, and Ratliff while our young backcourt men can learn from Parker, Ginobili, and RJ. Pop is going to need all the help he can get this season, and I’m positive that the vets we have won’t mind . Especially if that means increasing their chances to win a championship.
July 30th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Not to divert attention from this great post, but Odom resigned with LA. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4367213
But Pop always said, if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. I remember Pop was upset when Kobe and Shaq split because they wanted to face them again in the playoffs.
Let the games begin.
July 30th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Umm… Just for starters, lvmainman - what about injuries, fouls, defensive assignments, etc.? More importantly, I’d much rather trust Pop’s judgment to navigate the twin tasks of a.) winning games, and b.) developing his players on a game-by-game basis. He’s always been good at the first one, but in the second case the biggest leaps we’ve seen in younger or new Spurs have usually come from necessity. If we build up a comfortable division lead later in the season, parceling out minutes with the specific intention of keeping the older guys’ legs fresh and getting some experience for the others would be great. Even then, I’d still prefer to win…
Because what I really want as a fan is a strong team going into the playoffs, like Denver last year. As long as they’re contending through February or March, I’m content to see them struggle a little more than a team of that talent should.
July 30th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
:sigh: Odom to the Lakers, says ESPN. The mountain just got a lot higher, though honestly we all probably saw this coming.
July 30th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
I keep seeing people listing Blair as the 3rd big, in front of Bonner in the rotation. While I’d like to see this, and would guess it’s 50/50 we’ll see it at some point, I’d be surprised if out of the gate we see that. Pop trusts veterans who know the system, as we all know, and with as much change as the Spurs have gone through this off season, I have a hard time seeing him not relying on his known quantities.
That being said, even though it looks as though, in some order Bonner/Blair will be 3rd/4th in the big man rotation, it’s unlikely they’ll see much, if any, time together. Blair is 6’6” 1/2 in shoes, which means he offers no shot blocking/rim protection. Bonner is a 6’10” (according to his listing) stretch four man, and as we all know he definitely offers no shot blocking/rim protection. I expect to see lots of mixing and matching on the front line, mainly because of this.
Even though his .440% 3 point shooting is a plus, realistically if the Spurs are to beat, not compete, but beat the other contenders in playoff series’ and win the championship, at best Bonner will have to be the 4th big, playing spot minutes, and not playing all of the games. He’s too deficient in too many areas to play any more significant a part, and he seems nervous and unsure of himself against good teams in the regular season, let alone the playoffs.
July 30th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Tydus/Krista,
Thanks for clearing that up. Indeed, in Aug. 2008 OKC became the third team to purchase a DL team. I’m not surprised with Presti at the helm. (see: http://my.nba.com/thread.jspa?threadID=5700018738).
Last month Houston entered into a novel “single affiliate partnership” with the Vipers. Apparently, this may provide NBA teams with more player/coaching control than the existing partnership scheme without obligating them to assume financial control. (see: http://my.nba.com/thread.jspa?threadID=5700039429)
The BB player development business has always excited me, and I believe it is only in its infancy. I often wonder whether it would make smart business sense for NBA teams to affiliate with/buy smaller European clubs (for those MLS followers, think Chivas USA or Real Salt Lake).
I’m not sure what the NBA regs. have to say on the matter. However, I see the opportunity in developing (and marketing) players in Europe as products of an “NBA system,” and then selling them mid/upper tier European contenders for generous transfer fees. All the while the Spurs can scout certain foreign prospects, and keep the ones they like.
July 30th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Rye, as far as your points about Bonner, i think they will use Blair as the first big off the bench in most cases. Hes more conventional, and hes a decent offensive player. He cant stretch the floor as well as Bonner, but he can catch the ball and face up or post pretty well. There will be some situations where the rebounding Blair provides wont be as necessary as three point shooting, and thats when Bonner will step in. Overall, i think Blair will be a better defender (i dont think he could stop a Bynum or a Gasol, but he can slow them down, Bonner cant. Blair is built big and plays physical like Kurt Thomas, but quicker and more athletic.) Blair has got some hops, and if hes got the basketball IQ to be solid off the ball help, i honestly think he could block or alter some shots. Brandon Bass and Jason Maxiell are also undersized power fowards, but they are also OK at defending the rim. I’m putting alot of confidence in Blair, and i hope Pop does too. The guy is a freak, and hes angry. I wont put him ahead of Manu as far as second round steals are concerned, but if he reaches his potential, he’ll be pretty close. Bonner is going to be the Steve Kerr of our team this year. He rides the pine until we need a shot. I see the four bigs getting the most playing time being Duncan, Mcdyess, Blair, and Ratliff. Ian will get some run early in the season, but if he doesnt show hes developing his potential, he wont be on the floor long. Ideally, Ian will work out great, and take much of Ratliff’s playing time. When we play the Lakers (or even the Nuggets), i’d like to see Ian and Timmy on the floor together to go up against Bynum/Gasol and Nene/Kmart.
And i think we should pray Cleveland does not come out of the East this year. They will be matchup hell. They wont have to play small anymore (although they certainly still could), so they can trot out Lebron, Shaq, and Varajao/Z all at once. Call me nostalgic, but i think Shaq showed last year hes still got some game. He could easily average 20/10, which is pretty respectable. Even if all his points come on putbacks and dunks, you still have to keep a body on him, which is one less we can throw at Lebron. And we dont have an offensive lineman on our team that can slow down a linebacker flying to the rim. Hes just too strong for anyone small and quick to guard, and too quick for anyone big and powerful to guard. I think thats why the lakers made the move to Artest. Hes the one guy in the league that has been physically built to stop guys like Lebron. Just quick enough to stay in front, but big enough to keep him from getting run over too.
and that turned into a ramble. its been a pretty boring day so i’ve been thinking hoops alot.
July 30th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
I think we’re all at a point where we know what our veterans can do. McDyess and Ratliff will bring some much needed aggressiveness, although I am not entirely sure because they are aging and I never got to see them during the season.
I’m really big on our young players this season. I personally see the most upside in George Hill and Malik Hairston. Hairston got a few minutes in some Spurs regular season games last year, and he was impressive. And we’ve all seen George, who still needs to be developed a little better at the PG position but has tremendous potential.
I’m willing to bet at least one or two of the big guys we have will be frequently on the bench, so obviously that factors how Pop rotates his big men, unless there’s some sort of trade. Although we are deep at every position, we need a lockdown defender, like Bowen in his prime.
P.S. So Odom is back with LA. So what they lost Ariza. He saved them in Game 2 vs. Houston, Game 1 vs Denver, and in Games 4 and 5 of the Finals vs. Orlando. Artest is a better individual player but Ariza brought them a different element that Artest wont be able to bring
July 30th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
We’ll see, but I’ve seen Pop coach long enough to know what his tendencies are, and one of them is staying loyal to veterans who know the system, particularly when they’re coming off a good season. As deficient as Bonner is in as many areas as he is, he is a shooting four man, and he shot the ball very well last season. I just don’t see a twenty year old rookie supplanting him at the start of the year.
I disagree about Mahinmi, I want to see him playing against the weaker teams early on to find out if he can play at this level right now. Ratliff, on the other hand, should be saved for the contenders. The Spurs need a lengthy, shot blocking big man in the middle against those teams.
It’ll be interesting to see, particularly up front, what the Spurs do. You know they probably want to play Duncan 32 mpg this year while sitting out one game of back-to-back sets, at least against weaker teams. Ginobili and McDyess will probably play about 26-27 mpg each, possibly each sitting out the odd game as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Spurs sat Parker once or twice, and I expect he’ll play about 33 mpg. The thing is, with all this conserving guys/sitting them out, is there enough time (we know there’s not a ton of practice time in season) to build up the necessary on court chemistry and establish a rotation? I’m not so sure you can do all that and get a look at myriad players and combination’s.
July 30th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Two off topics but worth interest:
Nando De Colo played great with team France against Hungary (ok, a so so opponent): 18pts + buzzer beater.
Tony Parker is returning to San Antonio after SA’s medical staff got his exam sheets. He won’t play against Italy, and could be out for all the Euro qualifying round.
July 30th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
I’d like to throw in a little addendum - you were kind enough to reference my post at PTR, and I’d like to echo the sentiment that a lot of the regulars there share:
It’s Pop’s job to coach the team that R.C. picks and Holt pays for - and it’s our job to keep Holt doing his job so that the others can do theirs. Our owner’s no Mark Cuban, and though I am supremely grateful for this in most respects it does mean that the Spurs aren’t just an expensive toy for him to play with. It’s a local business, so support it like one. Buy tickets t0 see all-time-great players play the best ball in the league. Taunt your friends by wearing a DeJuan ‘Space-Eater’ Blair jersey, and pick up another classic #21 while you’re at it.
It’s our team too.
July 30th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
I’m not really sure if it’s just me, but in every website I visit where the Spurs are being given a good word or two about the off-season, some Lakers “fan” would gladly point out how powerful “their” team are are how they’re gonna run over the competition (not just the Spurs but even those teams in the East) this coming season.
Are they that insecure that they couldn’t just stick to their own fansite?
One thing I really like about the Spurs is aside from the talent, there is no “superstar complex” in the players, even among the superstars themselves. I don’t recall anyone among Timmy, Manu or Tony going into an interview and diss other teams or players just to get affirmation about their talent. The image of Timmy congratulating Kobe after losing in the playoffs in 2008 still sticks into my mind as it was a picture of a confident, ego-less superstar who was graceful and man enough to accept defeat and just get on and try to be better the next season. That’s hard to see these days among championship-level teams with huge superstars, or among championship-level superstars with huge teams.
I agree with the caution being thrown to the Spurs (and the fans alike) about being overconfident about the playoffs. I think that the Lakers team with Kobe-Shaq-Glove-Malone losing to a bunch of unselfish unknowns from Detroit should serve as a lesson to everyone that star power and talent alone could not win championships, but it’s the one that has talent but less ego.
Having seen RJ and Dice in the previous seasons, I think that they’re good enough to fit the Spurs, attitude-wise. They’re not big-time-headline-grabbing acquisitions like those made by the other teams this off-season (e.g., Shaq, Carter) or in the previous seasons (Gasol), but their relatively less selfish plays could mean very big for the NBA. Blair was by-passed by almost 29 other teams in the draft so I think it’s pretty weird when they start telling that the Spurs made a steal in the draft. He was not an unknown unlike Manu or Tony were when he entered the draft and he was even projected as a lottery pick. No one just bothered to look at him closer and now they’re worried that there’s a monster-hippo-with-angst-who-can-rebound out there wanting to show them how dreadfully wrong they were in ignoring him.
But yes, there’s work to be done for Pops and everyone else in the Spurs rotation. But hell, I trust them to make the right decision. Setting the goal for a championship is not being cocky, but I think it should be the goal for every team in the NBA.
July 30th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
I love this site!!! Thanks for all the updates and sophisticated insights!! (I’m tired of all the idiotic trash talking on espn’s msg brd.)
Hope to contribute comments in the future.
As POP said, this season will be VERY EXCITING for NBA fans. Being able to watch a solid match up with so many contending teams against each other!
July 30th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Rey,
Lakers fans are always insecure (puff their chests up) so it’s nothing new. If they are chattering this much it means they’re threathened by something (Spurs).
Back to the Bonner point, I expect him to get some PT. Maybe 15-20 minutes a game and if the opportunity arises we could see him dealt before the February deadline for a final piece to the championship puzzle (maybe back-up SF).
July 30th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
since trades/missing pieces are being mentioned again, i feel like i should throw in Brent Barry’s name. I know our last memory of him is missing a buzzer beater (that he got mugged on), but my memories right before that are of him absolutely tearing up in those playoffs. the guy was on fire, and when he had the freedom to make plays for other people, he did it. he would be an excellent backup PG addition, if thats what we feel is missing (which i’ve heard some people say). I know he didnt leave on the best of terms (he did complain about a lack of freedom to create), but if he can be had, i think he should be.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Hopefully by Feb Bonner is gone. Love the rest of the roster 1-15. Finally have quality youth mixed with the vets. Trade Bonner even if you have too throw in Mason. I believe it gets done
July 30th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
I know people have been mentioning that lamar odom has gone back to LA. I know that I personally had hoped he would go to miami, but now that he hasn’t I’m actually okay with it. Mainly, because if we go through the Lakers and then through whichever powerhouse of the East, I think it will be the hardest playoff matchups we would have ever faced to win an NBA championship. Making this title (if we won) the most deserved and earned title of all the Spurs’ titles. Lets go spurs, can’t wait to see what we can do and continue to look forward to the genius of Greg P and RC buford. Especially if we do more roster moves. I am more than fine with the roster as it is and I don’t mind the trade talk unless it doesn’t bring a person over with multiple years on their contract that could potentially mess our plans up to get Tiago Splitter to play here next year.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
I’m sure he could contribute, but I do not want Brent Barry cutting into George Hill’s minutes at this point. I can’t agree with the mindset that’s desperate to get rid of Roger Mason and Matt Bonner for an adequate 3 with above-average defensive skills or wants to re-sign players who helped us win Spurs’ championships in years past.
I can only assume that the motivation lies partly in anxiety over the Tim Duncan Championship Window. While it’s a valid concern to make the most of our time with him, the Spurs cannot afford to rely on diminishing returns from 35+ year old players. They’re not reliable enough. Their postseason contributions were huge, but totally unpredictable. You can’t expect to recreate those huge performances. Someone, and it can be anyone, has to step up when you want to beat an equally-matched or better team in the playoffs.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
Also Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, however much everyone feels they failed later on and in the playoffs, kept the Spurs alive for major portions of last season. They’re good players, even if they have some serious shortcomings. I don’t see why you wouldn’t want to incorporate their skills. They are both good, young shooters without any obvious redundancy in this roster. We just needed them to do more than they could last year. Unless we can swing them for some major talent, I’m inclined to keep them.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Before this offseason, I never paid much attention to the players we had in Europe and the players in the Toros program, so bear with me. I’ve learned about most of the guys, but what is the deal with Tiago Splitter? From what I’ve read, everybody makes him seem like he’s amazing and he’s that he’s the one person we don’t want to see traded. So if he is all this great stuff, why don’t we bring him over this season?
July 30th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
He’s under contract til 2010 in Spain, and he’s explicitly stated his preference for euroleague money over rookie scale. We knew this when we drafted him. They’d have to work out some kind of specially structured contract to get him over here.
July 30th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
DanielB,
The earliest we can bring him over is NEXT season, by that time i believe his contract with TAU will expire… after this upcoming season, Bonner’s contract also expires so that frees up a roster for Tiago… so we have to wait atleast one more year.
July 30th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
Ah I see. Thanks for clearing that up guys.
July 30th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
[...] 48MOH: A Note of Caution: Work to be Done http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/…rk-to-be-done/ A Note of Caution: Work to be Done On his latest podcast, Bill Simmons talks offseason with Marc [...]
July 30th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
There has been some talk that, because of the glut of frontcourt players, it’s inevitable that Matt Bonner will be traded before the season starts, probably in conjunction with Finley or (less likely) Mason.
Until recently, I had been a proponent of such a move. But I’ve had a change of heart, sort of. As Tim’s original post makes clear, there will be a battle for minutes upfront behind the triumvirate of Duncan, McDyess and Blair.
And while I think that Mahinmi and Haislip clearly have the bigger upside among the remaining quartet, only one of those guys has played in the Spurs system for any length of time at the NBA (not D-League) level. And that’s Bonner.
That’s why I now suspect, and even endorse the idea, that Pop is going to keep Bonner (and Finley) around at least until the trade deadline looms.
We have no certainty that Haislip or Mahinmi (or even Blair, to be honest) will be rotation contributors this season. As it relates to Finley, the same is true of Hairston and Williams.
Thus it behooves the team to keep Bonner and Finley, for time time being at least, as guys with corporate knowledge who can provide support until or unless the youngsters earn their stripes. Consider them the bulwark boys.
I view them much like the 3-month emergency fund you’re supposed to keep in the bank in case you lose your job. Bonner and Finley are 3-month emergency players the Spurs should hold on to until they’re confident they can win with the youngers guys.
If any three of the combo of Blair, Mahinmi, Haislip, Hairston & Williams pan out, I would expect Bonner to be sent packing to fill another need that might crop up in the interim (third true PG, lanky perimeter defender), or perhaps for a high-salaried benchwarmer who comes with a first round draft pick attached.
But I don’t think that any trade will happen before mid-February. And now, much to my own surprise, I don’t think it should.
July 30th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
Good point sydneylla, and among the Spurs’ big men Bonner is the one who can space the floor… (he’s really a shooting big). if he can make shots consistently he should stick with the team. I can’t see the spurs’ dealing away Finley (plus he has the right of first refusal to a possible trade). And at this point, i don’t really think we need to trade Mason he can be a better player for us in his second year and he can make shots… (except in playoffs). but with the lineup we have now, i think Mason and Bonner can help the Spurs rotation… (unless ofcourse there is a one sided trade coming)… But as it is, i think the Spurs’ lineup is pretty much set.
July 30th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
guys completely off topic but you might be interested in this…. Newflash : TP asked to come back to SA for further exams…
Lets hope all goes well…
July 30th, 2009 at 9:04 pm
The player whose role I’m most intrigued about is Haislip. My only knowledge of his play comes from the youtube highlights I’ve seen. Can anyone shed some light on what time of role he will have with the team next year? Does he have the ability to space the floor with a 3 ball? And I know he’s 6’10 but I’ve heard (or perhaps just read through this blog or another) that he might play some time at the 3. If he can live up to his potential I don’t see why he doesn’t take Bonner’s minutes. Granted Bonner has a huge advantage of knowing the system, but we seemingly know what to expect from most of the other bigs (MyDyess - mid range offense and experience D, Ratliff - Experience, Shot blocking, physicality, Blair - space eater, rebounding specialist and who knows where his potential ends, Bonner - shooting). Personally, I don’t see Mahimni making a huge contribution but we know what he can and can’t do. What is it exactly that we are going to be asking of Haislip?
July 30th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
Sydneylla, I also agree that Matt Bonner, if he gets traded, it wouldn’t be until the trade deadline. He is a proven big in the system. Although his shooting took a dip towards the end of the season, the guy can still space the floor and hit 3′s, and thats something we do need. However he does have his shortcomings on defense, so the best I could see him is as a 4th or 5th big who comes off the bench and gets maybe 10 min. a night
And like Robby, I agree we should keep Mason. Although he fizzled out in the playoffs, you can’t overlook the great contribution he gave to the Spurs, and after a year of experience in the system,he can go nowhere but up. Plus he’s proven he can make shots in the clutch
Man. This has been the slowest Spurs offseason ever. Just want the season to come
July 30th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
To my knowledge and if he plays as expected… he should be a rotation big (the Spurs sees him as a “mobile 4″) that will matchup well with Nowitzkis and Odoms of the world… i also read that he can play the some 3, if thats the case he can help add some depth at that spot behind RJ/Finley/Malik(probably). Also basing from his stats from Eurolegue has a decent 3 point shooting skills (37-39% if i’m not mistaken)
July 30th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
Regarding Bill Simmons
I really wouldn’t recommend listening to Simmons for any type of analysis. He is an entertainer, simple as that. But then of course I’m a lakers fan, and Simmons hates the lakers with a deadly passion, so that may be giving me a bias against the biased Simmons,lol.
Spurs will be a very good team. In my mind, it all depends on Manu/Tim. How effective will these two be, assuming that they are healthy as can be? How much have they dropped? Also while I usually agree with most things that the Spurs’ front office does (they have earned the benefit of doubt), I am not so sure regarding Jefferson. Was this a desparate move in order to extend the championship window a year or two, or was this actually a well thought out move not based on desparation? He is a volume shooter and an inefficient one at that. His +- is actually a negative 2.4 points. That is, his team last year actually scored more points than their opponents with him on the bench (i think it was .7), and less points than their opponents with him in the game (-1.7 points). Does this concern anyone here? I’m open for reasons why this is the case -you would expect Jefferson to give a positive contribution not a negative one, especially to such a bad team (the bucks).
July 30th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
In spite of Matt Bonner’s deficiencies at center, I kind of like him as a sort of matchup weirdo. Keep in mind that Pop likes to experiment with strange lineups in the postseason. So this is purely fantasy, but imagine the match-up issues caused by a second unit with Bonner at the 3, Blair and Ratliff up front, George Hill at point, rounded out by Roger Mason or Finley. Depending I think especially on how well Blair defends other NBA bigs, it could be one of two things - the worst defensive combination possible, or the kind of chimerical bench that racks up points over while resting the starters if even two of those guys are on their game that night.
July 30th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
Kaveh - didn’t you make that same argument about RJ’s +/- on the Bucks a week ago? Quit trolling.
And Simmons, though he is at times annoying with his digressions and not very strict about his evaluations, he definitely knows his basketball. I will always respect a guy who watches every game, every season over one who prefers to sort the data.
July 30th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
Yea Kaveh, I think you’ve posted this for the tenth time already…get some more material man!
July 30th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Every Laker fan talks about Jefferson’s + - and how it was not efficient last year. Thats because he was on a bad team. Now that he doesn’t have to carry a large load, his efficiency will go up. As for Haislip, who knows how he will be now in the NBA after fixing his game in Europe. He may be a surprise player in the NBA this year.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:21 pm
I think Marcus Haislip spells the end of bonner. heres a link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyiK5nf95Cs if he plays half this good it’s better than bonner shooting, can create off the dribble, and the D. I’m excited to see this guy.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
If any of that stuff translates to the NBA, he’ll be pretty dangerous. I have some major doubts about that, but I’d like to be proven wrong.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:21 am
I am inclined to say that winning games is very much correlated with winning a championship. Simply put, it gives a team an edge in two ways - homecourt advantage, and a mental edge.
It is quite possible that 64 wins means more to the Spurs than 60 wins.
Yes, staying healthy is ultimately their primary concern.
But a Spurs team without a number of vets is still a formidable team. It might not come down to losing 4 more games.
July 31st, 2009 at 1:40 pm
I guess there’s more evidence to go on that Duncan has, or is in the process of, declining, but how come nobody even entertains the idea with Bryant? At 31 (by the start of next season) he’ll have more mileage on his body than anyone in the history of the game at that point, with very little down time the past two years. He is due to begin to decline as well, but it’s as if people have gotten so caught up in the NBA attempting to market him with their next generation of superstars (James, Wade, Howard, Paul, etc.) that it’s become almost forgotten how old he is by NBA standards.
It’s also completely overlooked how well Duncan was playing before the All-Star break last season. That was, if not exactly, then close to the Duncan from his MVP years. He was carrying the Spurs and playing as well as anyone in the league. But, of course as usual, that got little to no attention nationally, because it didn’t involve Bryant, James, or the Celtics.
July 31st, 2009 at 5:49 pm
Kobe is a shooter- and a common maxim is the shot is the last thing to go. I think thats one of the reasons hes not getting the type of attention regarding declining that Duncan has.
July 31st, 2009 at 5:59 pm
The Duncan decline thing is overblown.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:37 pm
The Duncan decline has been mentioned since 2006 or 2007 (i guess?) but still we won 1 ring since its been an issue… i think its getting more focus now because:
1. Injured his knees last season, and we all know
he is not 100% during the playoffs.
and
2. We are stcked up so much with BIGS to help out
Duncan this upcoming season.
But if you look at his numbers… there’s hardly a decline. He is so consistent despite the fact that he had played 12 straight years without missing the playoffs. To my mind, Timmy D. has at the very least 2-3 good years left in him…
August 1st, 2009 at 1:21 pm
What I think people mean by decline is that Tim Duncan isn’t the crafty, aggressive player who dunked on pretty much everyone that he used to be in his younger years.
However the man still does put up 20 and 10. People need to be careful when they use the word “decline” with Duncan
August 1st, 2009 at 9:57 pm
I love McDyess and Theo is ok but why did our beloved spurs just sign two old guys? It kinda goes against everything we started to do this summer with the signings of Blair and RJ. Brandon Bass or Drew Gooden or Channing Frye, Glen Davis, cough cough Rasho, would all be younger and your choice if you think they are better worse or even players. Hope our spurs will be ok this year. Do you see that we need to do anything else this summer? Or do you see any other moves coming on the horizon? Been a great summer, we’ve lost nobody of importance and gained RJ, Dice, Theo and Blair. Exciting year ahead.
August 2nd, 2009 at 4:13 am
The purpose of signing McDyess and Ratliff is to mix youth with experience… we already have enough young bigs in Blair, Mahinmi and Haislip…
Veteran players most of the time have high Basketball IQ (see Dice and he is hungry to win a title as it is with Ratliff).If youre thinking we should sign somebody else (like Gooden, Bass etc…) i think the reason are pretty ovious these guys will ask more money, and we can also argue that atleast McDyess is more proven than guys you’ve mentioned… Ratliff will only be used for short stints so i’d say for the minimum and 1 yr. he is a good signing.
August 2nd, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Of course at 33 years old after 12 seasons in the league and a lot of mileage from repeatedly playing deep into the year and getting a shortened summer of time off, he’s not quite at his peak. Neither is Garnett, or Bryant. But people act as if he’s no longer amongst the elite in the game.
I still would rank Duncan & Bryant as the two best all around players and standards in the game (one for post players, the other for perimeter players).
I don’t care about Howard’s numbers, his game is far too underdeveloped to be considered better than Duncan’s. The way I see it: Duncan, Bryant, James, Wade, Paul, Howard. That’s the elite of the elite.
October 18th, 2009 at 6:21 am
[...] All this new players bring different dimension to the Spurs game and with a healthy BIG three and an even deeper bench that includes Hill, Mason, Finley, Bonner and maybe even Hairston, Mahinmi and Williams, the Spurs championship success for this coming season seems to be within grasps but as Timothy Varner puts it there is more work to be done… [...]
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