Advanced Scouting: Charlotte Bobcats at San Antonio Spurs

by Scott Sereday

Charlotte Bobcats at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST March 19, 2011

SRS ranks:

Charlotte: -3.62 (23rd)
San Antonio: 6.15 (4th)

All statistics are prior to last night’s game.

Player summary statistics from basketball-reference.com and basketballvalue.com:

Charlotte Bobcats Player Ratings 3-17

Player	G	MPG	USG%	Ortg	DRtg	WS/48	2 Yr APM
D.J. Augustin	67	33.4	20.9	114	111	0.122	-3.78
Gerald Wallace	48	39	20.1	105	105	0.099	5.25
Boris Diaw	67	33.6	16.5	105	108	0.078	1.06
Kwame Brown	52	23.3	15	109	107	0.1	-7.3
Stephen Jackson	62	36.5	27.3	99	108	0.05	-1.49
Tyrus Thomas	37	21.5	25	101	101	0.106	-1.09
Shaun Livingston	67	17.3	19.6	102	107	0.068	1.71
Nazr Mohammed	51	16.7	22.2	102	104	0.086	-3.24
Gerald Henderson	53	21.8	19.2	102	108	0.062	0.68
D.J. White	9	20.7	17.6	123	105	0.179	N/A
Dominic McGuire	39	14.2	14	92	105	0.034	N/A
Matt Carroll	39	9.3	19.2	98	108	0.043	N/A
Eduardo Najera	28	12.5	11.6	96	108	0.036	-3.32

The Bobcats are not the same defensive team without Gerald Wallace.

San Antonio Spurs Player Ratings 3-17

Player	G	MPG	USG%	Ortg	DRtg	WS/48	2 Yr APM
Tony Parker	65	32.2	25.2	114	107	0.165	-0.86
Manu Ginobili	67	30.9	26.3	116	104	0.199	5.28
Richard Jefferson	66	30.8	15.5	115	108	0.117	-0.82
Tim Duncan	67	28.7	22.9	109	100	0.165	6.47
George Hill	61	28.2	17.7	115	107	0.136	-1.74
DeJuan Blair	67	21.9	20.3	106	99	0.14	-0.45
Matt Bonner	51	21.5	12.8	131	107	0.162	3.62
Gary Neal	65	20.5	20.5	109	108	0.1	-1.22
Antonio McDyess	61	18.1	15	105	103	0.106	2.18
James Anderson	18	12.4	15.1	110	109	0.084	N/A
Tiago Splitter	47	11	17.5	111	103	0.139	N/A
Steve Novak	13	6.7	14.6	139	109	0.189	N/A
Chris Quinn	39	6.6	16.3	96	109	0.027	N/A

Player trends, based on Efficiency per 48 minutes:

Charlott Bobcats Player Trends 3-17

Player	Season	Last 10	Increase
Eduardo Najera	12.2	16	3.8
Matt Carroll	15.4	17.2	1.8
Shaun Livingston	19.9	21.1	1.2
Gerald Henderson	17.4	17	-0.4
Stephen Jackson	20.2	18.5	-1.7
D.J. Augustin	21.5	19.3	-2.2
Boris Diaw	19.9	17.4	-2.5
Kwame Brown	20.7	16.8	-3.9
Dominic McGuire	18.5	13.9	-4.6
Tyrus Thomas	28.1	14.6	-13.5

San Antonio Spurs Player Trends 3-17

Player	Season	Last 10	Increase
DeJuan Blair	28.3	32.2	3.9
Matt Bonner	20.3	23.3	3
Tiago Splitter	22.2	25.1	2.9
Manu Ginobili	28.3	31	2.7
Gary Neal	18.7	20.2	1.5
Steve Novak	19.8	19.5	-0.3
Antonio McDyess	23.3	22.7	-0.6
Tony Parker	27.1	25.1	-2
Tim Duncan	32.4	30.4	-2
James Anderson	13.6	9.9	-3.7
George Hill	22.2	18.1	-4.1
Richard Jefferson	17.8	11.8	-6
Chris Quinn	12.3	3.3	-9

Lineup data

Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Bobcats:
Augustin, Jackson, Wallace, Diaw, Brown -59 in 364 minutes (-9.3 per 100 possessions)
Augustin, Jackson, Wallace, Diaw, Mohammed -12 in 363 minutes (-1.4 per 100)
Augustin, Henderson, Jackson, Diaw, Brown -41 in 157 minutes (-12.8 per 100)
Augustin, Henderson, Jackson, Wallace, Diaw +27 in 57 minutes (+23.6 per 100)

Diaw at Center: +4.1 per 100 in 672 MP
Diaw at PF: -7.3 per 100 in 1,577 MP

Spurs:
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan +147 in 669 minutes (+10.4 per 100)
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan +29 in 147 minutes (+10.2 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, McDyess +65 in 101 minutes (+35.3 per 100)

Preferred method to create shots: Stephen Jackson on isolations and post-ups

Depending on whom you talk to Stephen Jackson is either among the most overrated or under appreciated players in the game. Many observers like his versatility, production and ability to create. Other, including many statheads, believes he is a model for inefficient scorers whose perceived value is derived from jacking up a ton of shots, despite all of the missed shots and turnovers that hurt his team along the way.

Ben Gordon has a career Offensive Rating of 106. Carmelo Anthony checked in at 107. Even Allen Iverson had a rating of 105. Stephen Jackson’s Offensive Rating of 101 pales in comparison even to these noted inefficient “ballhogs”. Despite this dismal efficiency, Jackson actually appears to have more offensive value than you would expect. Now, I’m not suggesting he would that a good offensive team like the Spurs should target him (although he did tag along for the title run in 2003), but the Bobcats’ enemic offense would likely be even worse without him.

Stephen Jackson’s 5 year adjusted plus minus (which is much more reliable than 1 and 2 year figures) estimates him as a player of average to above average offensive value (and average defensive value). More interesting, however, is the fact that the Bobcats have scored more than 4 points more per 100 possessions when Jackson is on the floor for both 2009/10 and this season (his defensive on court/off court figures are not as favorable).

There are several reasons that Jackson has more offensive value than his box score statistics would suggest. Much is made about the value of shot creation and Jackson clearly has that ability. Jackson typically takes close to 20% of his shots near the end of the shot clock, which definitely helps take the sting out of his low shooting percentage. Amazingly, this season Jackson’s effective FG% is higher at the end of the shot clock. In 5 isolation plays per game, Jackson averages 0.86 points per possession (PPP). He also averages 0.92 PPP in about 2 post ups per game. Both rates are very respectable.

Additionally, although Jackson commits a lot of passing turnovers, his assists are arguably among the most valuable in the NBA. Approximately 1/3rd of the NBA’s assists lead to layups or dunks. Jackson’s assists lead to close shots an impressive 56% of the time. Last year, it was 68%. In the past, I have estimated that a close assist indicates as much as 5 times more value than assists on jump shots. (This is primarily because an assist on a jump shot will typically come with many untracked passes leading to missed shots). This season, Jackson even average more close assists than Lebron James.

DJ Augustin is probably the only other Bobcats player who is a better offensive player than their owner. (I’m mostly joking about that.) Augustin is not the most productive point guard and might not create as many easy scores as Jackson, but he is very efficient and probably the Bobcats’ best three point option.

Spurs defensive strategy: Defend Jackson with Hill and entice him to take jumpers on isolations

I realize that the Spurs may be more interested in getting their roster playoff ready; but I’ve done reports for every other team, so I think I’ll just pretend they are intend to make adjustments to improve their chances against the Bobcats, if needed.

Stephen Jackson likes to pass out of the post more often than he passes out of isolations. However, Jackson’s passes out of the post tend to be kickouts and less deadly than his passes on isolation plays. Additionally, his passes to cuts from the post are when many of his turnovers occur. When Jackson tries to finish from the blocks himself, he likes to either take a jumper or drive to the hoop. He usually drives left, but he can also be effective going right on the baseline.

George Hill seems to continually improve defensively. He is a tough defender in the post, but his size could entice Jackson to test Hill’s defensively on the blocks. With Jackson posting up, his passing value should be diminished. (However, opponents have experiences success attempting to score on Hill in the post.)

Hill has also become a very good defender on isolations. Once again, the size difference could entice Jackson into a less effective option, the jump shot. Jackson isn’t a terrible jump shooter, but he is nothing special from three point range and becomes a very dangerous passer when driving to the basket.

If the Spurs need to set up their defensive rotations to leave any Bobcats player, Kwame Brown would be the least punishing option. Although most of Brown’s scores come from easy assisted layups or dunks, he somehow manages to keep his shooting percentage below 50%.

Spurs offensive game plan: Attack Augustin and Kwame Brown on pick and rolls

Although the Bobcats rank in the top half defensively, the trade of Gerald Wallace to the Trail Blazers should have a significant negative impact on their defensive performance (especially with Przybilla out indefinitely). After winning 17 of their first 30 games after Paul Silas took the coaching reigns from Larry Brown, Charlotte has lost 8 of their last 10 coinciding with Wallace’s trade.

DJ Augustin and Kwame Brown are two defensive liabilities for the Bobcats. Both players struggle defending the pick and roll. Augustin has allowed 0.91 PPP when defending the pick and roll ball man over the last two seasons. Kwame has historically struggled defending the ballhandler more than the roll man, so George Hill and Tony Parker will be better good options to run the pick and roll since they prefer to finish the play themselves.

Augustin also struggles defending isolations. His opponents scored an average of 0.98 PPP when isolated against him over the past 2 seasons. Both Hill and Parker should look to take advantage of this weakness.

The Pick

Spurs

At the moment, the Spurs might be slightly less than 100% as they look ahead towards the playoffs, but the Bobcats are looking forward to next season(s). A back-to-back might be a good opportunity to rest the vets, but the Spurs would even have a good shot without their best lineup.