Advanced Scouting: Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs

by Scott Sereday

Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST November 20, 2010

SRS ranks:

Cleveland: -4.03 (25th)
San Antonio: 7.73 (3rd)

Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective November 18, 2010) and basketballvalue.com:

Cleveland Player Ratings

Player	Fraction of teams minutes	PER minus Counterpart PER	2 Year Net PER	On court +/-per 48 minutes	Off court +/-per 48 minutes	2 Year Adjusted +/-
Gibson	0.59	2.7	-0.2	4.2	-12.7	1.0
Sessions	0.54	-0.1	-2.3	1.3	-7.4	6.3
Varejao	0.57	0.9	2.5	-0.7	-5.3	8.2
Jamison	0.36	-2	1.9	2.5	-5.6	2.5
Hollins	0.32	4.1	-8.5	-5.7	-1.3	-11.5
Hickson	0.56	2.1	-0.9	-8	4.1	-8.7
J.Williams	0.31	-8.1	-8.9	-1	-3.5	-8.7
M.Williams	0.28	-4.4	0.3	-6.9	-1.1	-2.5
Moon	0.56	-8.4	-1.6	-4.3	-0.7	-4.4
Parker	0.62	-2.7	-3.4	-9.4	8.1	-3.3

Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Sessions,Parker,Moon,Hickson,Varejao +3 in 73 Minutes
M.Williams,Parker,Moon,Hickson,Varejao -24 in 73 Minutes
Gibson, M.Williams,Parker,Hickson,Varejao +21 in 12 Minutes

It’s still too early to tell much from this list other than which lineups are playing together most often.

Preferred method to create shots: Pick and Roll

Daniel Gibson has been very good on isolation plays this year, but the Cavs have still relied primarily on the pick and roll to create offense. The Cavs are not elite at this area or any other area offensively, but they can use the pick and roll very effectively. To this point, Ramon Sessions and Gibson have both excelled in this aspect of the game.

In addition to Cleveland’s ability to use multiple guards in the pick and roll, they have many big men that can be utilized in these sets. Ryan Hollins is an effective roll man. Over the past few years, he has consistently averaged 1.2 points per possession in such plays. Also, Varejao, Hickson, Jamison all look to cut to the hoop; which works well in connection with increasing the effectiveness of the pick and roll.

Appropriate Spurs counter: Hill and Parker

Hill and Parker have been a much better options than Ginobili for defending the pick and roll ballhandler. Perhaps Ginobili can play a few more minutes at the 3 man this game. (Richard Jefferson was much worse than all three defending this play last year and so far this season.)

Duncan, Bonner and McDyess are the Spurs best options for big man defending the pick and roll. These three have had significant success helping out on the ballhandler in the pick and roll. However, no Spurs big really excels at defending the roll man.

Defensive Weakness:

Last season, opponents who faced up against Mo Williams on isolation plays scored at a rate of 1.04 points per possession (PPP). (Williams ranked only in the 16th percentile in such plays defensively). Additionally, although some feel that Gibson is improved defensively, he has still consistently ranked on the lower half of the league in this play type. (He had nowhere to go but up after allowing 1.1 PPP in 2008/09.)

Parker and Ginobili have been the primary options in isolation plays, but George Hill could also present a favorable isolation matchup for the Spurs. Hill, Ginobili and Parker have all shown to be reasonably effective in the pick and roll, but not exceptional.

Another Cleveland potential weakness the Spurs may wish to explore is transition defense. The Cavs currently rank 25th in points per possession allowed on the fast break, perhaps they are missing Lebron’s ballhawking on the fastbreak. It could be in the Spurs best interests to have Parker look for his quick scores as he brings the ball up.

Conclusion

Barring a San Antonio collapse or shooting barrage from the Cleveland shooters, the Spurs have the personnel and system to simply overmatch Cleveland.