Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets 7:00 CST January 22, 2011
The Spurs travel to New Orleans in hopes of attaining their 9th consecutive victory. The Hornets have won seven in a row themselves, including a 100-59 spanking of the Hawks in Atlanta on Friday.
The season series currently stands at 2-1 in favor of San Antonio. New Orleans stole the first matchup between the two in the second game of the season.Â The Spurs overcame a 17 point margin to win 109-95 in New Orleans on November 28th. They coasted to a 109-84 victory on their home court on December 5th. In all three games, the Spurs were able to create easier shots and it paid dividends twice. If you havenâ€™t already, check out my scouting report on the Hornets to see how I think the Spurs should play the Hornets.
In the three matchups against the Spurs, Chris Paul has led 48 pick-and-roll plays, resulting in 45 points. West scored 20 points on 18 post possessions. As I mentioned previously, the Spurs were able to force New Orleans to take difficult shots. Only 29% of the Hornets possessions were defined as transitions, cuts or spot-ups. These plays have the highest average efficiencies and are usually created by other play types or defensive lapses. On the season, 37.4% of New Orleans possessions are classified as one of these plays.
Offensively, the Spurs found the easy shot at a much higher rate. On spot-ups alone, Richard Jefferson scored 32 points on 21 possessions. Gary Neal had 21 on 14 such plays. Ginobili set up teammates in 21 pick-and-roll plays, creating 33 points. Parker leading the pick-and-roll resulted in 20 points on the 24 plays he found teammates. In total, 46% of the Spurs plays ended up as spot-ups, cuts or transitions.
The Spurs averaged an impressive 1.34 PPP on spot-ups. This conversion shouldnâ€™t be expected every time out, but as long as the Spurs keep creating easy shots, you have to like their chances. Of course, Ginobili and Parker must continue to be aggressive to suck the defense in and create these opportunities. Duncan chipped in 16 points in 16 post plays.
New Orleans: 3.26 (8th)
San Antonio: 8.05 (1st)
|Player||Fraction of teams minutes||PER minus Counterpart PER||On court +/-per 48 minutes||Off court +/-per 48 minutes||2 Year Adjusted +/-|
Paul,Belinelli,Ariza,West,Okafor +38 in 732 Minutes (2.5 per 48 MP)
Paul, Jack, Ariza, West, Okafor +32 in 53 minutes (29.5 per 48 MP)
The Spurs continue to rack up wins in their historical season. However, tonight begins a stretch of 12 road games in their next 13 contests. New Orleans is among the most dangerous teams in this road trip. The Hornets should be in full health, and have played well lately.
I think the line of Spurs by 2-3 is a bit generous. In fact, if Bonner and Hill are unable to go, I would probably lean towards New Orleans, after accounting for home court advantage. Another impressive Spurs performance is needed for win number 38.