Advanced Scouting: Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs - Can’t stop now

by Scott Sereday

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST March 21, 2011

With 13 games remaining in the season, the Spurs are already preparing themselves for the playoffs. McDyess has been inserted into the starting lineup, presumably to bolster the defense and provide a better matchup against bigger elite teams (or just to test different lineup combinations). Saturday night, they gave Duncan the night off and limited Manu Ginobili to 19 minutes. Tinker as they may, the wins keep piling up. The Spurs are 5-1 since introducing McDyess into the starting 5. Tonight, the Warriors come to town as the Spurs ready themselves for what they hope is a lengthy playoff run.

The Spurs are 3-0 against the Warriors this season. The difference in these three meetings was that the Spurs ability to create the high percentage plays and shut down the Warriors’ pick and roll. The Spurs ran an average of 5 isolations, 13 pick and rolls and 7 post ups per game, averaging their customary 0.9 points per possession (PPP) in each. The Warriors averaged 14 isolations, 20 pick and rolls and 9 post ups; scoring 0.7 PPP on these plays, including an abysmal 0.56 on pick and rolls. The Spurs enjoyed decisive advantages in scoring opportunities on cuts to the basket (11-6) and spot ups (24-18). Not surprisingly, this led to 3 double digit victories.

As has been their calling card throughout the season, balance has been key for the Spurs against the Warriors. Manu averaged 20 PPG, Blair 12 PPG, 9 RPG and 2 SPG; getting to the line over 7 times per contest. Duncan was mostly quiet against the Warriors, but did chip in with a triple double for one contest. McDyess made solid contributions in the only meeting against the Warriors where he saw real action, making 6 of 9 field goals and grabbing 10 rebounds in 25 minutes. Parker averaged 16 PPG, 9 APG with a 55% FG%, getting to the rim without the help of a pass two times per game. Parker and Ginobili were particularly effective setting up teammates for layups and dunks 10 and 9 times, respectively.

David Lee played well for the Warriors, averaging nearly 22 PPG, 11 RPG and 4 APG on 66% shooting. Excluding the game where he only played 11 minutes, Stephen Curry averaged 23 PPG, while shooting around 50% from the field. Ellis, Curry and Lee were able to score unassisted layups or dunks about twice per game, but the Warriors only combined to set up 17 assisted close shots in the three meetings against the Spurs.

Although the Spurs may be looking ahead to the playoffs, they won’t reach playoff form without good play during this home stretch. And if they do that, there will be no need to worry about Home Court Advantage.

Key Statistics

SRS ranks:

Golden State: -2.66 (21st)
San Antonio: 6.22 (2nd)

Player summary statistics from basketball-reference.com and basketballvalue.com:

Golden State Warriors Player Ratings 3-20

San Antonio Spurs Player Ratings 3-20

Player trends, based on Efficiency per 48 minutes:

Golden State Warriors Player Trends 3-20

San Antonio Spurs Player Trends 3-20

Lineup data

Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Warriors:
Curry, Ellis, Wright, Lee, Biedrins -101 in 687 minutes (-4.6 per 100 possessions)
Curry, Ellis, Wright, Radmanovic, Lee +58 in 150 minutes (+14.6 per 100)
Andris Biedrins will not play tonight

Spurs:
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan +147 in 669 minutes (+10.4 per 100)
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan +29 in 147 minutes (+10.2 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, McDyess +65 in 101 minutes (+35.3 per 100)
Effective as of 3/17

The Pick

Spurs

The Spurs rested Duncan and Ginobili on Saturday, but that was a back-to-back road game. Besides injury-preventative decisions, I suspect most changes will be moderate for the rest of the season. Barring unusual swings in shooting success, the Spurs should expect a win.