Advanced Scouting: Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs – Can’t stop now

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Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST March 21, 2011

With 13 games remaining in the season, the Spurs are already preparing themselves for the playoffs. McDyess has been inserted into the starting lineup, presumably to bolster the defense and provide a better matchup against bigger elite teams (or just to test different lineup combinations). Saturday night, they gave Duncan the night off and limited Manu Ginobili to 19 minutes. Tinker as they may, the wins keep piling up. The Spurs are 5-1 since introducing McDyess into the starting 5. Tonight, the Warriors come to town as the Spurs ready themselves for what they hope is a lengthy playoff run.

The Spurs are 3-0 against the Warriors this season. The difference in these three meetings was that the Spurs ability to create the high percentage plays and shut down the Warriors’ pick and roll. The Spurs ran an average of 5 isolations, 13 pick and rolls and 7 post ups per game, averaging their customary 0.9 points per possession (PPP) in each. The Warriors averaged 14 isolations, 20 pick and rolls and 9 post ups; scoring 0.7 PPP on these plays, including an abysmal 0.56 on pick and rolls. The Spurs enjoyed decisive advantages in scoring opportunities on cuts to the basket (11-6) and spot ups (24-18). Not surprisingly, this led to 3 double digit victories.

As has been their calling card throughout the season, balance has been key for the Spurs against the Warriors. Manu averaged 20 PPG, Blair 12 PPG, 9 RPG and 2 SPG; getting to the line over 7 times per contest. Duncan was mostly quiet against the Warriors, but did chip in with a triple double for one contest. McDyess made solid contributions in the only meeting against the Warriors where he saw real action, making 6 of 9 field goals and grabbing 10 rebounds in 25 minutes. Parker averaged 16 PPG, 9 APG with a 55% FG%, getting to the rim without the help of a pass two times per game. Parker and Ginobili were particularly effective setting up teammates for layups and dunks 10 and 9 times, respectively.

David Lee played well for the Warriors, averaging nearly 22 PPG, 11 RPG and 4 APG on 66% shooting. Excluding the game where he only played 11 minutes, Stephen Curry averaged 23 PPG, while shooting around 50% from the field. Ellis, Curry and Lee were able to score unassisted layups or dunks about twice per game, but the Warriors only combined to set up 17 assisted close shots in the three meetings against the Spurs.

Although the Spurs may be looking ahead to the playoffs, they won’t reach playoff form without good play during this home stretch. And if they do that, there will be no need to worry about Home Court Advantage.

Key Statistics

SRS ranks:

Golden State: -2.66 (21st)
San Antonio: 6.22 (2nd)

Player summary statistics from basketball-reference.com and basketballvalue.com:

Golden State Warriors Player Ratings 3-20

PlayerGMPGUSG%OrtgDRtgWS/482 Yr APM
Stephen Curry6133.724.21141120.1315.36
Monta Ellis6940.528.61061120.084-5.28
Dorell Wright6938.419.11111120.0886.12
David Lee6035.821.21091100.094-3.63
Reggie Williams6720.518.91191150.111-1.76
Andris Biedrins5923.710.61091070.086-7.12
Vladimir Radmanovic6416.714.71111100.0872.27
Acie Law3715.915.11071130.051-12.2
Ekpe Udoh4514.812.8971110.022N/A
Al Thornton912.820.31161110.124-1.76
Louis Amundson3413.916.3961100.02-1.14



San Antonio Spurs Player Ratings 3-20

PlayerGMPGUSG%OrtgDRtgWS/482 Yr APM
Tony Parker6732.325.21141070.166-0.82
Manu Ginobili6930.726.31161040.2045.26
Richard Jefferson6830.615.51151080.116-0.83
Tim Duncan6828.722.9109990.1676.48
George Hill6328.217.71151070.132-1.74
DeJuan Blair6921.720.2106990.139-0.5
Matt Bonner5321.512.91291070.1563.56
Gary Neal6720.720.41091080.102-1.18
Antonio McDyess6318.314.81041020.1042.15
James Anderson2011.315.51111090.09N/A
Tiago Splitter4811.317.41111030.138N/A
Steve Novak147.516.91471080.246N/A
Chris Quinn396.616.4961090.027N/A


Player trends, based on Efficiency per 48 minutes:

Golden State Warriors Player Trends 3-20

PlayerSeasonLast 10Increase
Acie Law16.120.84.7
Monta Ellis2426.12.1
David Lee26.9281.1
Dorell Wright20.921.60.7
Al Thornton26260
Vladimir Radmanovic21.220.2-1
Stephen Curry27.526.4-1.1
Ekpe Udoh17.116-1.1
Louis Amundson18.116.4-1.7
Reggie Williams2118.4-2.6
Andris Biedrins23.517.4-6.1



San Antonio Spurs Player Trends 3-20

PlayerSeasonLast 10Increase
Steve Novak25.528.32.8
Tiago Splitter22.224.32.1
DeJuan Blair28.230.22
Manu Ginobili28.6301.4
Gary Neal18.719.81.1
Tony Parker27.227.70.5
Matt Bonner19.919.8-0.1
Antonio McDyess2322.1-0.9
Tim Duncan32.631.4-1.2
James Anderson14.212.8-1.4
Richard Jefferson17.613.8-3.8
George Hill22.216-6.2
Chris Quinn12.35.1-7.2


Lineup data

Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Warriors:
Curry, Ellis, Wright, Lee, Biedrins -101 in 687 minutes (-4.6 per 100 possessions)
Curry, Ellis, Wright, Radmanovic, Lee +58 in 150 minutes (+14.6 per 100)
Andris Biedrins will not play tonight

Spurs:
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan +147 in 669 minutes (+10.4 per 100)
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan +29 in 147 minutes (+10.2 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, McDyess +65 in 101 minutes (+35.3 per 100)
Effective as of 3/17

The Pick

Spurs

The Spurs rested Duncan and Ginobili on Saturday, but that was a back-to-back road game. Besides injury-preventative decisions, I suspect most changes will be moderate for the rest of the season. Barring unusual swings in shooting success, the Spurs should expect a win.

  • DorieStreet

    With the exception of the Dec 1st game at the Clippers, the Spurs have beaten every opponent that are currently below .500 this season. 16-0 (8 series sweeps) vs. the eastern conference; 12-1 against sub- .500 western conference clubs:
    2-1 LAC, 4-0 MIN, 3-0 SAC, 3-0 GS. (1 more game with the Kings next month.)
    I expect the Spurs to come out with intensity, to limit the Warriors’ inside game as the guard duo of Ellis & Curry shoot, shoot, & shoot some more.

  • ITGuy

    Go Spurs Go!!

  • TDzilla!

    so, who will be listed as “trop vieux” tonight?

  • http://48minutesofhell.com Jesse Blanchard

    @TDzilla: That might be me…after playing ball all day yesterday, not sure I can pull an all-nighter tonight….Getting old sucks. Ha.

  • http://www.bpifanconnect.com Alix Babaie

    The Spurs should be able to rest the starters off and on, while giving PT to the reserves.

  • Hobson13

    Alix Babaie
    March 21st, 2011 at 6:59 am
    “The Spurs should be able to rest the starters off and on, while giving PT to the reserves.”

    I agree. Unless the Spurs just have an off night, this should be a relative gimme. I would expect to see Manu and Tim each play 25 min or less. Hopefully we will see a lot of Splitter and Anderson.

  • TDzilla!

    @ Jesse Blanchard

    Lol! Good one!

  • Dr. Leonard McCoy

    This is what the good doctor would like to see ordered: A part deux of TD-21’s trop vieux treatment. It would be nice if TD-21 can get additional rest for his chronic ailment, along with MG 20-20. This is the only treatment for this kind of debilitating sports ailment, & these guys are going need it! I’m sure that tonight, it shouldn’t be much of a problem for the Spurs to utilize that same line up & try to limit Manu’s minutes to 15-20, if possible, depending how the rest of the team comes out to play. As we know, their up-& -coming road trip to Denver on Weds & Portland on Fri; Memphis on Sun, with a B2B with Portland back home on Mon; then Boston on Thurs, with a B2B with the Rockets on Fri. WHEW! That makes me feel old & tired just thinking about that! Also, it would be nice to see Splitter get more minutes so he can get more comfortable, confident, & also help to build chemistry on the floor, because we WILL need his services in those up-in-coming games, especially as this team rides into the playoffs as well. It would also be nice to see Novak & “Mr.” Anderson git some more playing time tonight as well in order to bloster confidence & chemistry! It will intresting to see what Pop will do to the lineup for tonight. So, arm photon torpedoes Mr. Sulu; warp factor 6, & let’s get some Warriors! LET’S ICE ONE FOR THA DYESS!

  • Jacques

    I have a feeling that McDyess will get a night off. The Warriors played a tough game w/ Mavs yesterday, so maybe putting Tiago in the starting lineup makes sense. Hope to see him guard Udoh. Go Spurs

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  • ITGuy

    I wonder why Jason Terry hasn’t been talking about catching the Spurs after the mavs’ loss to the Spurs on Friday?

    Go Spurs Go!!

  • Colin

    Can’t stop is right! With LA playing the way they are supposed to, we need to stay amped up through this portion of the season into the playoffs.

    LA looks scary good right now! Watched that game against the Blazers last night with Kobe in assassin mode. Wow.

  • dfjmed

    Let’s win this one. Anyone know how many wins we need to clinch the Southwest Division? The home division loss we gave to the Mavs on Friday OUGHT to be the nail in the coffin.

  • Alan Kennedy

    Spurs win 7 games and it doesn’t matter if the other teams win the rest of their games. That’s the advantage of winning early. Go Spurs.

  • Hobson13

    dfjmed
    March 21st, 2011 at 2:25 pm

    The Spurs are up by 8 games (in the loss column) and have 13 games to go. Spurs also have the tie breaker if the Mavs tie (super unlikely). So with that in mind, I believe the magic number should be 5 games to clinch the division. Someone correct me if I’m wrong…

    I will say that the schedule gets much tougher. Out of our last 13 games (including tonight) only 2 are what I would call gimmies. Every other team is decent or good.

  • Spur4Life

    This should be a fun game to watch the bench excell, the warriors have given up on this season i would love to see James Anderson continue what he was doing at the end of last game.
    @Itguy
    Love the fact that we shut Jason Terry’s mouth, not only was the win nice but Terry was scoreless for quite some time during the game. SWEET!
    As my 2 year old daughter says, Go Spurs Go!