Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies - It’s really not that bad
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies 5:00 CST March 27, 2011
The Spurs try to lick their wounds as they travel to Memphis tonight. Memphis will be without Rudy Gay for the remainder of the season, but have continued to play respectably well and are in the thick of a playoff hunt. After two consecutive losses to the Nuggets and Trail Blazers, San Antonio is 0-2 since Duncan went down with an injury. Both losses came after the Spurs surrendered leads deep into the fourth quarter. I sense that some are panicking.
Cause for concern?
Two losses and the Spurs are reeling? I don’t think so. Did the Spurs play perfect? No. However, I came away with a slightly more optimistic view of the Spurs chances in the playoffs after these two losses. Here are a few reasons:
- They weren’t playoff games. A loss has little resounding impact.
- It’s only 2 games. Beating out the Lakers is both very likely and only modestly important.
- The losses were by a combined 5 points.
- Both were road games against good teams.
- Guarding bigs was a concern for the Spurs, but they held two elite power forwards in Nene and Aldridge to 22 points in 77 minutes. Splitter and McDyess generally played well.
- Tim Duncan didn’t play and is presumably healing up for a lengthy playoff run.
Ok, so Parker’s 8 turnovers weren’t a positive. Neither was the end of game execution. But I have confidence that both will get sorted out in plenty of time before the playoffs. Obviously, the Spurs will need to get more accustomed to losses along the way as they will be playing without Duncan and resting the starters. Clearly, some losses should also be expected in the playoffs too. A couple regular season losses should be this big of a deal.
What’s different about Memphis
Rudy Gay has been unable to play in each of the prior matchups against San Antonio, so Memphis’ roster will be similar to prior meetings against the Spurs. The Spurs loss to Memphis came without the benefit of Tony Parker. Now they will have to play without Duncan. Here is a look at my scouting report on the Grizzlies prior to their first and second game.
Similar to several top Western conference opponents, Memphis has a couple effective big men. Marc Gasol has play limited minutes lately, but his efficiency and per minute production has improved in these minutes. Randolph has cooled off a bit, but he is always a tough cover in the post and an absolute beast on the boards. He has grabbed 24 offensive rebounds in the three prior meetings.
Memphis also has a couple excellent perimeter defenders in Tony Allen and Shane Battier. They could make penetration difficult. The Grizzlies greatest defensive weakness is allowing three point attempts (They also struggle creating them offensively). Astoundingly, Memphis has allowed nearly twice as many threes (535) as they have scored (271). Setting up the three can come at a cost, however. The Grizzlies lead the league in steals and forced turnovers. Memphis forces a high rate of both passing and ballhandling steals. Tony Allen is the Grizzlies most disruptive defender, but every perimeter player is a threat to force turnovers.
The keys to this game will be boxing out Randolph, setting up high percentage threes and protecting the ball.
Key Statistics
Memphis: 2.14 (10th)
San Antonio: 6.19 (3rd)
Player summary statistics from basketball-reference.com and basketballvalue.com:
Memphis Grizzlies Spurs Player Ratings 3-26
| Player | G | MPG | USG% | Ortg | DRtg | WS/48 | 2 Yr APM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gay | 54 | 39.9 | 23.2 | 108 | 105 | 0.121 | 2.9 |
| Zach Randolph | 68 | 36.5 | 25.1 | 114 | 105 | 0.173 | -1.6 |
| Mike Conley | 73 | 35.5 | 19.6 | 108 | 107 | 0.109 | 10.1 |
| Marc Gasol | 72 | 31.9 | 16.9 | 112 | 104 | 0.137 | -5.2 |
| O.J. Mayo | 62 | 26.9 | 21.3 | 101 | 108 | 0.056 | -1.9 |
| Shane Battier | 14 | 24.4 | 9.8 | 104 | 106 | 0.071 | 3 |
| Darrell Arthur | 71 | 20.4 | 21.3 | 108 | 105 | 0.12 | -4.2 |
| Tony Allen | 65 | 19.5 | 20 | 109 | 101 | 0.147 | 0.8 |
| Sam Young | 69 | 19.4 | 16.9 | 105 | 106 | 0.085 | 0.5 |
| Greivis Vasquez | 61 | 12.2 | 17 | 96 | 109 | 0.025 | 0.9 |
| Leon Powe | 7 | 10.6 | 25.2 | 149 | 106 | 0.38 | N/A |
San Antonio Spurs Player Ratings 3-26
| Player | G | MPG | USG% | Ortg | DRtg | WS/48 | 2 Yr APM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | 70 | 32.5 | 25.2 | 113 | 107 | 0.16 | -0.1 |
| Manu Ginobili | 72 | 30.9 | 26.4 | 116 | 104 | 0.201 | 5.2 |
| Richard Jefferson | 71 | 30.6 | 15.4 | 115 | 108 | 0.116 | -0.8 |
| Tim Duncan | 69 | 28.3 | 22.9 | 110 | 100 | 0.167 | 6.2 |
| George Hill | 66 | 28.1 | 17.6 | 114 | 107 | 0.128 | -2 |
| DeJuan Blair | 71 | 21.8 | 20.1 | 106 | 100 | 0.136 | -0.9 |
| Matt Bonner | 56 | 21.6 | 12.9 | 129 | 107 | 0.158 | 3.7 |
| Gary Neal | 70 | 20.7 | 20.6 | 109 | 108 | 0.102 | -2.1 |
| Antonio McDyess | 66 | 18.5 | 14.9 | 105 | 103 | 0.107 | 3.1 |
| Tiago Splitter | 51 | 12 | 17.2 | 112 | 102 | 0.149 | N/A |
| James Anderson | 21 | 10.8 | 15.6 | 112 | 110 | 0.093 | N/A |
| Steve Novak | 16 | 7.8 | 16.8 | 149 | 108 | 0.249 | N/A |
Player trends, based on Efficiency per 48 minutes:
Memphis Grizzlies Spurs Player Trends 3-26
| Player | Season | Last 10 | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Randolph | 31.7 | 31.8 | 0.1 |
| Marc Gasol | 25.1 | 32.5 | 7.4 |
| Mike Conley | 21.4 | 20.1 | -1.3 |
| Tony Allen | 23.4 | 26.6 | 3.2 |
| Darrell Arthur | 24.5 | 28.7 | 4.2 |
| Sam Young | 17 | 17.8 | 0.8 |
| O.J. Mayo | 16.1 | 16.1 | 0 |
| Leon Powe | 36.5 | 36.5 | 0 |
| Shane Battier | 14.9 | 15.8 | 0.9 |
| Greivis Vasquez | 16 | 23.5 | 7.5 |
San Antonio Spurs Player Trends 3-26
| Player | Season | Last 10 | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Splitter | 23.7 | 30.6 | 6.9 |
| Steve Novak | 27.7 | 33.4 | 5.7 |
| James Anderson | 14.6 | 18.7 | 4.1 |
| Gary Neal | 18.8 | 19.9 | 1.1 |
| Antonio McDyess | 23.3 | 23.8 | 0.5 |
| Tim Duncan | 32.7 | 33 | 0.3 |
| DeJuan Blair | 27.9 | 27.1 | -0.8 |
| Manu Ginobili | 28.5 | 27.6 | -0.9 |
| Tony Parker | 27 | 25.4 | -1.6 |
| George Hill | 21.9 | 18.7 | -3.2 |
| Richard Jefferson | 17.7 | 14.3 | -3.4 |
| Matt Bonner | 20.2 | 16.2 | -4 |
Lineup data
Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Grizzlies:
Conley, Mayo, Gay, Randolph, Gasol +68 in 666 minutes (+1.1 per 100 possessions)
Conley, Young, Gay, Randolph, Gasol +122 in 607 minutes (+9.2 per 100)
Conley, Allen, Young, Randolph, Gasol +66 in 560 minutes (+8.2 per 100)
Conley, Mayo, Battier, Aurthur, Randolph +60 in 136 minutes (+46.6 per 100)
Spurs:
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan +147 in 669 minutes (+10.4 per 100)
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan +29 in 147 minutes (+10.2 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, McDyess +67 in 105 minutes (+35.3 per 100)
Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Bonner, Duncan +49 in 55 minutes (+39.0 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, Splitter +22 in 33 minutes (+33.9 per 100)
Hill, Ginobili and Bonner consistently show up in the Spurs best lineups.
The Pick
Memphis, because there’s a chance Parker or Ginobili get extra rest
The Spurs are good without Duncan (+3.5 per 100 possessions), but not elite. This means that an average team would present a difficult challenge on their home court. The Grizzlies are an above average team, even without Rudy Gay. I would favor the Spurs slightly, but tomorrow night is a back-to-back, so it is possible Pop gives Manu and/or Parker some rest.
