Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks
San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks 7:00 CST January 12, 2011
The Spurs hosted the Milwaukee Bucks on December 15, needing a last second step-back jumper from Manu Ginobili to edge out the Bucks 92-90. San Antonio held Brandon Jennings to 4 of 18 from the field (he was 2 of 4 from deep) and Tim Duncan matched Andrew Bogut with 7 blocks.
My scouting report called for the Spurs to use Tony Parker to fight over the screen when defending Jennings in the pick and roll. Parker was able to beat the screener in 5 of the 7 such possessions against Jennings. In total, Parker held Jennings scoreless in all 7 pick and roll plays. This time around, Jennings will be very unlikely to play.
Milwaukee also went to Bogut in the post 12 times and came away with 12 points. On the season, Bogut has struggled offensively. In fact, Bogut has only topped an Offensive Rating of 100 one time in 11 games since facing the Spurs. Chris Douglas-Roberts has increased his scoring over the last few games, but John Salmons figures to be the primary scorer for the Bucks.
Salmons is most effective when he is isolated. Over the past two seasons, the Bucks have had more success when Salmons finished the isolation play himself. Forcing Salmons to pass out of isolations should be a favorable strategy, especially when the Bucks are missing several offensive weapons.
Salmons was unable to play in the first meeting against the Spurs, but he is likely to be defended by Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and George Hill. Over the past two seasons, Hill has allowed 1.08 points per possession (PPP) against 258 isolations, Jefferson has allowed 0.88 PPP in 268 possessions and Ginobili allowed 0.76 PPP against 195 isolation plays. Hill tends to defend better scorers, but this large difference still suggests that Ginobili is a more effective option to guard Salmons.
Tony Parker ran 20 pick and rolls resulting in 18 points and Manu Ginobili headed 14 pick and roll possessions that led to 19 points. Tim Duncan also contributed 6 points on 6 possessions as the roll man. Perhaps intimidated by Bogut’s 7 blocks, the Spurs only attempted 4 post possessions.
Key Statistics
Milwaukee: -0.42 (17th)
San Antonio: 7.61 (2nd)
Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective January 6, 2011) and basketballvalue.com (effective January 8, 2011):
| Player | Fraction of teams minutes | PER minus Counterpart PER | On court +/-per 48 minutes | Off court +/-per 48 minutes | 2 Year Adjusted +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salmons | 0.71 | -5 | -3.2 | -0.3 | 0.37 |
| Bogut | 0.6 | 8.4 | -0.2 | -5.7 | 5.8 |
| Jennings | 0.56 | -1.5 | -2.8 | -1.8 | 0.18 |
| Mbah a Moute | 0.51 | -1.8 | -4 | -0.7 | -1.75 |
| Ilyasova | 0.49 | -1.8 | 1.3 | -6 | 0.63 |
| Dooling | 0.44 | -1.5 | 2.6 | -6.3 | 8.51 |
| Maggette | 0.34 | -4.1 | -5.6 | -0.7 | -5.31 |
| Gooden | 0.31 | -6 | -4.8 | -1.3 | -10.43 |
| Douglas-Roberts | 0.26 | 0.9 | -5.7 | -1.2 | -6.12 |
| Sanders | 0.23 | -0.3 | -8.1 | -0.7 | N/A |
| Boykins | 0.2 | 2.4 | -1.2 | -2.7 | -11.53 |
| Brockman | 0.18 | -1.8 | 1 | -3.1 | 3.8 |
| Delfino | 0.16 | 5.4 | -3.5 | -2.2 | -1.16 |
Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Jennings, Salmons, Mbah a Moute, Gooden, Bogut -9 in 132 minutes (-3.3 per 48 minutes)
Jennings, Delfino, Salmons, Gooden, Bogut +7 in 89 minutes (+1.7 per 48 minutes)
Dooling, Salmons, Ilyasova, Mbah a Moute, Bogut -31 in 67 minutes (-20.5 per 48 minutes)
Dooling, Douglas-Roberts, Salmons, Ilyasova, Bogut -2 in 65 minutes (-4.8 per 48 minutes)
Dooling, Salmons, Maggette, Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova +14 in 20 minutes (+31.2 per 48 minutes)
Conclusion
The Spurs once again face a team that appears to be less than 100%. Jennings and Gooden are out and Bogut has missed time recently. Despite playing on the road, the Spurs should be favored in this one.
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