Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks

by

San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks 7:00 CST January 12, 2011

The Spurs hosted the Milwaukee Bucks on December 15, needing a last second step-back jumper from Manu Ginobili to edge out the Bucks 92-90. San Antonio held Brandon Jennings to 4 of 18 from the field (he was 2 of 4 from deep) and Tim Duncan matched Andrew Bogut with 7 blocks.

My scouting report called for the Spurs to use Tony Parker to fight over the screen when defending Jennings in the pick and roll. Parker was able to beat the screener in 5 of the 7 such possessions against Jennings. In total, Parker held Jennings scoreless in all 7 pick and roll plays. This time around, Jennings will be very unlikely to play.

Milwaukee also went to Bogut in the post 12 times and came away with 12 points. On the season, Bogut has struggled offensively. In fact, Bogut has only topped an Offensive Rating of 100 one time in 11 games since facing the Spurs. Chris Douglas-Roberts has increased his scoring over the last few games, but John Salmons figures to be the primary scorer for the Bucks.

Salmons is most effective when he is isolated. Over the past two seasons, the Bucks have had more success when Salmons finished the isolation play himself. Forcing Salmons to pass out of isolations should be a favorable strategy, especially when the Bucks are missing several offensive weapons.

Salmons was unable to play in the first meeting against the Spurs, but he is likely to be defended by Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and George Hill. Over the past two seasons, Hill has allowed 1.08 points per possession (PPP) against 258 isolations, Jefferson has allowed 0.88 PPP in 268 possessions and Ginobili allowed 0.76 PPP against 195 isolation plays. Hill tends to defend better scorers, but this large difference still suggests that Ginobili is a more effective option to guard Salmons.

Tony Parker ran 20 pick and rolls resulting in 18 points and Manu Ginobili headed 14 pick and roll possessions that led to 19 points. Tim Duncan also contributed 6 points on 6 possessions as the roll man. Perhaps intimidated by Bogut’s 7 blocks, the Spurs only attempted 4 post possessions.

Key Statistics

SRS ranks:

Milwaukee: -0.42 (17th)
San Antonio: 7.61 (2nd)

Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective January 6, 2011) and basketballvalue.com (effective January 8, 2011):

PlayerFraction of teams minutesPER minus Counterpart PEROn court +/-per 48 minutesOff court +/-per 48 minutes2 Year Adjusted +/-
Salmons0.71-5-3.2-0.30.37
Bogut0.68.4-0.2-5.75.8
Jennings0.56-1.5-2.8-1.80.18
Mbah a Moute0.51-1.8-4-0.7-1.75
Ilyasova0.49-1.81.3-60.63
Dooling0.44-1.52.6-6.38.51
Maggette0.34-4.1-5.6-0.7-5.31
Gooden0.31-6-4.8-1.3-10.43
Douglas-Roberts0.260.9-5.7-1.2-6.12
Sanders0.23-0.3-8.1-0.7N/A
Boykins0.22.4-1.2-2.7-11.53
Brockman0.18-1.81-3.13.8
Delfino0.165.4-3.5-2.2-1.16

Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Jennings, Salmons, Mbah a Moute, Gooden, Bogut -9 in 132 minutes (-3.3 per 48 minutes)
Jennings, Delfino, Salmons, Gooden, Bogut +7 in 89 minutes (+1.7 per 48 minutes)
Dooling, Salmons, Ilyasova, Mbah a Moute, Bogut -31 in 67 minutes (-20.5 per 48 minutes)
Dooling, Douglas-Roberts, Salmons, Ilyasova, Bogut -2 in 65 minutes (-4.8 per 48 minutes)
Dooling, Salmons, Maggette, Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova +14 in 20 minutes (+31.2 per 48 minutes)

Conclusion

The Spurs once again face a team that appears to be less than 100%. Jennings and Gooden are out and Bogut has missed time recently. Despite playing on the road, the Spurs should be favored in this one.

  • http://www.bpifanconnect.com Alix Babaie

    It sure would be nice to take this game tonight and get a little rest before the big Mavs game on Friday! Let’s hope that the S&B can give enough energy to dispatch what will be an undermanned but feisty opponent.

  • Pingback: Tweets that mention Spurs Stats | Advanced Scouting | Milwaukee Bucks 1/12/11 -- Topsy.com

  • DorieStreet

    Short trip might help in Spurs getting this BTB but Duncan played 30 minutes last night so I don’t see him getting on the floor much if at all. McDyess in full rotation since year started (after no time vs OKC)-would like to see him get more touches to keep his jumper sharp.

  • David

    This is a perfect game for Tiago to get some good extended play. Duncan played a bit longer than we would like on the first game of the B2B, and it would be nice to see Tiago giving him some extra rest.

    The Bucks are not at full strength tonight and don’t have much going on at center after Bogut. So, here’s to hoping we see a lot of #22 tonight.

  • jason

    This will be a nice W if we can pick it up. After this game our back-to-backs get significantly easier with the likes of memphis, houston, and twice sacramento being the back-end opponents.

    In that measure, our schedule from here on out is pretty easy in that the spurs should be rested enough to have a fair shake at whatever playoff calibur opponent they play. We may play miami and la and miami and dallas in consecutive games, but they aint back-to-backs

  • rob

    The first game of Spurs and Wolves I was way off. The second game keeping the same prediction I was very close.

    If this were not a b2b I would say Spurs by 4 (106 to 102). Being it’s a b2b…too close to call. Perhaps OT? Spurs 97 Bucks 95

  • TD = Best EVER

    Another reason we need another BIGMAN

    Andrew freaking Bogut – Is beasting my man Timmy….. All that youth and SIZE……. A 2nd 7ft will help fight off players of his size and strength. Also seriously – where are our bigs tonight.

    Also as a side note – this is what happens in the playoffs – the game slows down and its very hard to run against teams that take care of the ball and make 45% of their shots.

  • td4life

    I think we can forget about seeing a significant contribution from Tiago Splitter this season.

  • DorieStreet

    @ TD = Best EVER–

    +10 -Never was a fan of the Euro bigman draft & stash (hasn’t worked for the franchise yet). A lot of fans want to fall back on low draft position but that means scouts & FO have to look very hard or be creative (working against Left Coast–Bynum in ’05 draft and Gasol mid ’07-08 trade). Maybe sometime will come through.

  • DorieStreet

    @ td4life–

    I will not mention the 2007 1st rd. draft again until I see him play–that means for me on TNT, ABC/ESPN. (1st chance this Fri vs Mavs.)

  • TD = Best EVER

    Let me also add that Bonner shot was light out tonight…… Now if we can find the Defensive Specialist bigman to pair with Bonner Offensive Specialist we would be in business……

    SA Big’s – TD, DICE, Bonner, Blair

    Bucks Big’s – Bogut, Gooden, Ilyasova, Mbah a Moute(played alot of PF tonight)

    SA – 46point and 17 rebounds
    Bucks – 41points and 31 rebounds

  • SAJKinBigD

    Holy Cow! Did I see that right? 5TOs?

  • DorieStreet

    @ SAJKinBidD–

    Yes; just like playing defense, taking care of the ball is an attitude/you have to want to do it–every trip down the court. We know that averaging <10 TOs per game for a season is impossible, but that does not mean a team gives up 5 a qtr either. To me it is a game-by-game emphasis stat. If team A comes up against an opponent who gets extra shots by outrebounding them on the offensive glass, then team A has to compensate by valuing every possession, i.e. eliminating TOs as much as possible. the Bucks game was a perfect example–thru 3 qtrs the Spurs were getting hammered on the offensive boards AND Milwaukee had a low TO total also (I think it was 5-7 at end of 3rd). Some nights the shots just don't fall but you can did yourself a deep hole if you continue to pile up empty possessions while the opponent does not throw the ball away. Keep up the low count!

  • LPspursFan

    yes, 5 turnovers. Typical Spurs game where we keep pounding the rock and doing what we do and tighten up the defense and come out on top.
    Gave up only 33 points in the 2nd half.
    Team effort with guys, starters and bench, stepping up and making shots when needed.
    I liked that we matched their rebounding and just stayed so consistent (pts per quarter: 21, 22, 22, 26) throughout the game.
    33-6. Sweet.

  • Daniel T

    Tiago was the 28th overall pick of the 2007 draft in which Greg Oden was the top overall pick. There are only a handful of players drafted after him that have more than 1,000 minutes played in the NBA (Tiago having 311 minutes after all this time). None of those players are playing with the team that drafted them. The only of those players that is a regular starter is Marc Gasol, who of course is a Euro big that didn’t come over immediately after being drafted.

    Marc Gasol plays for Memphis, who have two 7+’ players on their team that have totaled less minutes between them than Tiago. Thabeet was the 2nd overall pick of the 2009 draft. Haddadi was the only player to average a double-double at the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, China, leading all Olympians in rebounds (11.2) and blocks (2.60) and averaging 16.6 points in five contests for Iran.

    Tiago’s PER and per 36 minutes stats are very similar to Marc Gasol’s, who is now in his 3rd NBA season. I don’t see that the Spurs could have done much better by not going for a Euro big with the 28th pick.