And So It Begins

by

A few weeks ago I tackled the subject of whether or not the Spurs should consider trading Manu Ginobili. In that post I said that there was no reason to suspect that they would, and that they shouldn’t. But I included this qualifier:

While I don’t think the Spurs have any interest in trading Manu Ginobili, I think they’ll receive more calls about his availability than ever before. This might seem counter-intuitive given his recent injuries, but if you’re an opposing GM you know:

  • the Spurs need to reload, and their assets are limited
  • if healthy, Manu Ginobili can lead a team to glory
  • he is only due 11 million next season
  • his contract is expiring, so the risk is minimal
  • even if he doesn’t return to form, his bird rights and a scaled back contract offer give any team an insanely good 6th man going forward

So, in other words, Manu Ginobili is an attractive expiring contract and I expect plenty of rumors this offseason. Sam Amico of Pro Basketball News reports one rumor this way:

One thing that’s not in doubt: The Wizards are actively dangling the fifth pick for a starting veteran. They are said to have contacted San Antonio to find out about the availability of Manu Ginobili, but that rumor was quickly shot down by both sides. The Wizards may also try to make a run at unrestricted free agent forward Shawn Marion (Toronto) or guard Ben Gordon (Chicago).

Brace yourself, because we’ll hear more of the same before the summer is done.

Nota Bena: Washington’s motivation in shopping the 5th pick has everything to do with their cap situation. They don’t want to take on guaranteed salary, which, according to the rookie scale, is about 2.7 million if they keep their current selection. Their projected cap number for next season is in the mid 70s, which means that, depending on where the tax line comes down, they’ll have to shed salary in order to sign anyone this offseason. Honestly, they probably need to shed 6 million in cap and not take on a dime in order to avoid taxes. That’s a hard row to hoe. Why do you care? Because the Spurs would need to take back at least the money due Manu, but Washington would want to include more filler. Any player(s) the Spurs receive will compromise their 2010 cap integrity. So short of a base offer that includes Caron Butler and the 5th pick, I don’t see a Wizards trade offer that makes sense for San Antonio. And if you’re the Wizards, is the cap relief and tax savings worth that much? This is merely a rumor, and not a very good one at that.

  • pad300

    The minimum that might make it work (from the Spurs perspective - no guarantee WAS bites…)

    #5, Caron, Haywood, Deshawn Stevenson

    for

    Ginobili, Oberto(buyout), Bowen (buyout), 2010 1st

    SAS salary in (2010): $19,914,899 +the #5 , Salary Out (2010) : $18,528,130
    SAS salary net (2010):+ $4,111,069 (inexact, +/- 20% on the rookie scale salary of $2,724,300)

    WAS salary in (2010, post buyouts): $14,628,130, Salary out (2010): $19,914,899 +the #5
    WAS Salary net: -$8,011,069 (inexact, +/- 20% on the rookie scale salary of $2,724,300)

    This would leave the Spurs at $73,565,796
    in committed salary in 2010 (above tax line by approximately $2,000,000) and 13 players signed. Pray Finley retires and you can sign a 2nd rounder (Gist?) or vet min. Move Bonner and other expirings in 2010 for cheaper contracts that end in 2011 and put off the big rebuild till 2011, when both Tony and Butler’s contracts come up and things look potentially doable..

    Alternatively, there are cheaper contracts (Pecherov, Blatche, Crittendon, McGuire) than Stevenson, but most of them are rookies that I suspect WAS values more.

    Also if Finley lets SAS know early enough, trading him to WAS to retire, while we take more of their salary might work (add Finley for SAS, add Crittendon or Pecherov for WAS)…

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    That could work for Washington. I’d guess they’d want to move Mike James’ contract before those you mention, though. Drop his 6 million (plus Butler, and no rookie contract) from their cap and they’re close(er) to where they need to be.

    I think the Wiz will waive McGuire regardless. They can’t afford him and his deal isn’t guaranteed. Why trade him when you can waive him? Trade salary you can’t waive.

  • pad300

    Sure, they’d want to move Mike James (PER 9.9) before Haywood (although maybe not before Stevenson (PER 6.9). Not to mention, Etan Thomas (PER 10.1) However, I can’t see SAS taking James or Thomas back. Haywood would play, possibly start, for SAS; James or Thomas would be 12th man.

  • http://www.truthaboutit.net/ Truth About It

    Well…some of this is slightly misinformed (in regard to the Wizards).

    The Wizards’ owner, Abe Pollin, whose health is ever declining, has come out and said that the will do ‘whatever it takes’ to try to get a championship back to DC before he passes…. and this includes a willingness to go over the luxury tax threshold.

    So, it’s not an “OMG!, we gotta get rid of this pick because we don’t want to add a contract” thing.

    It’s more of a “we don’t want to be developing another player and the 5th pick is an ‘asset’ (Ernie Grunfeld’s word) … or a means, along with perhaps the expiring contracts of Etan Thomas and Mike James, towards getting a ‘veteran’ piece which will put the team over the top” thing.

    So for one, we would NEVER trade Butler (who is somewhat injury prone himself) AND the 5th pick for Ginobili, someone who is three years older and much more injury prone … much less Caron for Manu straight up (without the pick).

    To quickly address some of the comments:

    * Giving up Butler, Haywood, and the 5th for that? LORD NO.

    * Waiving Dominic McGuire? Absolutely No Chance. Period. D-Mac is our “Bruce Bowen in training” — Our interim coach actually compared him to Bowen in the papers. He is one of the invaluable role players that the Wizards will definitely NOT be giving up.

    It’s tough, in looking at the Spurs’ roster, there’s not really anything which can satisfy both sides …. especially since the Spurs, I’m assuming, aren’t ready to get younger and would rather take advantage of the last couple of years that Duncan has left.

    I certainly would consider sending you guys Etan Thomas, DeShawn Stevenson, Andray Blatche and the 5th pick for Manu and either Kurt Thomas or Matt Bonner, but highly doubt that to be something the Spurs would want to do.

    Sincerely,
    Your Friendly Wizards Blogger

  • pad300

    Truth About It, lets try some facts of life here. 1) There are 3 assets the wizards have that SAS might care about interested in. a) Butler, b) the 5th, c) Haywood. 2) Manu Ginobili is is either the 2nd or 3ed best player on the SAS roster, and is one of the top 15 non-big men in the NBA. 3) He’s also on a very good contract. In combination with his contract, he’s more valuable than any individual player or asset you team has. Arenas included.

    At that point, giving up #5 in a crappy-looking draft, crapola on bad contracts (Thomas, Deshawn), and getting salary cap relief as the cherry on on top of the sundae for Manu is simply not on.

    The NBA is not a kindergarten. SAS is not in fact run by a bunch of drunken idiots…

  • http://www.truthaboutit.net/ Truth About It

    @pad300

    Exactly.

    In pondering possible trades for my Wizards, the Spurs are not even a team that I considered. I just came here because the Wiz were mentioned … naturally.

    Second, I just threw out that trade knowing A) it was swayed by my Wizards bias, B) there’s no way the Spurs would take it, and C) you would certainly take pause if the draft was strong.

    But c’mon, let’s be real for a sec. I think that your bias is boosting Manu’s value just a bit. He’ll be 32 in July, and while he still has at least three very good seasons in him, he’s breaking down and his game is conducive to putting more wear and tear on his body.

    Clearly our facts of life aren’t the same … oh well.

  • Pressurez

    There simply is no way the Spurs would get equal value for Manu.

    His negative attributes (age, injury-prone, can split in a year) are too restrictive.

    His positive attributes are more appreciated by the Spurs than any other team.

  • pad300

    Truth About It - you want to be real about it. Manu + Manu’s Contract > Butler + Butler’s contract. By quite a bit. Manu is just a better player by both the watch test and nearly every statistical test. So Manu for Butler + X is fair.

    Cap space is harder to quantify, but, what I posted saves the Wizards ownership something like $16 million in year 1. In exchange for a 30 year old player who was out all last year (who knows if he’ll recover fully) and who is an FA next year anyway…
    Is saving $16 million > a 1 year rental (Haywood) + Deshawn (bad contract & bad player - a net negative) + Y ?
    Depends how much WAS values their money - realistically, they don’t have a a championship shot in 09/10 anyways; they need something to match the impact of a Dwight or a Lebron to have that.
    Given the lack of championship shot, I’d say Y is a positive as well.
    X+Y = 5th pick in a bad draft (2009) - a future first (expected late) in a expected good draft (2010).

    Hell, if the teams are serious, you might not see WAS get the 2010 1st…

  • ChillFAN

    TruthaboutIt, you say Abe Polin DECIDED he wants a championship? How about just don’t be on the short list of the worst teams in the league? (You may have to go over the tax threshold to do that) What a joke.

  • Joe

    Guys, let’s try to be fair for a moment.

    1) For the Wiz, Manu probably isn’t worth giving up Butler, who is arguably their best player, much less including other assets just to get under the cap. Part of the reason is that the Wiz have absolutely nothing behind Butler at SF. Another part of the reason is that the games of Agent 0 & Manu probably wouldn’t mesh well. Also, Manu doesn’t solve their glaring hole in the middle defensively that’s kept them from accomplishing much in the playoffs even when they’re healthy. That’s not to say that Manu is a less valuable player than Butler by some global player-value measure (in fact, even in one of Manu’s worst seasons, his PER of 22.9 dwarfed Butler’s 18.8); he just doesn’t fill the needs that the Wiz have right now.

    2) Manu’s age and injury history, of course, will be real concerns for any team interested in trading for him, but his contract status would probably be a non-issue once a trade was actually consummated. Any team offering the kind of talent we would take in exchange for Manu would want him for more than just his expiring deal and would almost certainly insist that he agree to an extension as part of the trade, unless we’re talking about a team like Chicago that both wants to win now and clear space for 2010 (assuming they don’t pull off a trade for Bosh this summer first).

    3) TruthAboutIt, I understand why you wouldn’t do a Manu/Butler swap, or any of the variants on that mentioned above, due to Manu’s injury issues and age, but you have to face the fact that your team doesn’t have the personnel at the top to make a serious run and should have retooled last summer instead of re-upping Arenas & Jamison to long, higher-than-market value deals. I lived in the DC area up until 9 months ago and have watched LOTS of Wiz games — Arenas’ decision-making during games is atrocious, and no amount of tinkering with the roster is going to change that. I can’t tell you how many games I watched where the Wiz had a 10-point or so lead and an opportunity to start putting the other team away, and rather than keeping the momentum of the run going, Arenas jacked up a 3 from 5 feet behind the arc with 20 seconds left on the shot clock and the rest of the Wiz not yet in position to challenge for an offensive board. The other team then gets a break-away going the other way, and rather than being up double-digits, the Wiz are back into a close game with momentum in the favor of the other team. Arenas even had the nerve to claim recently that Eddie Jordan’s offense was holding him back!!! He has no clue how to play a team game or what an amazing job Jordan did on a regular basis just keeping that team from imploding much less getting them out of the lottery and into the playoffs. If Arenas is your team leader, then you either need to start rebuilding or find a playoff-tested stud like Manu to replace him as team leader and go-to guy.

  • http://www.truthaboutit.net/ Truth About It

    @ChillFAN

    Damn bro. Harsh.

    Yea, we suck. And we had 19 wins … you must have done your research on basketball-reference.com to come up with your ‘worst teams in the league’ comment.

    Assuming you’re a Spurs fan….yea, y’all have been real good/nice. But I’m not a Spurs hater like many. I’ve liked S.A. since David Robinson was drafted….but that doesn’t make me a ‘true’ fan, and thus I am jealous of your championships while offering you a congratulations.

    But I’m an optimist and my team has been “cursed” for so long, that I do have hope. When healthy, the Wizards have shown they can compete. And with a better bench, developing players, and perhaps a strong veteran piece, which going over the luxury tax might help acquire, Washington can make the finals in the East … and then, who knows? (Trust me, just because they’ve been ‘there’ recently, there’s nothing that special about the Magic, Cavs and Celtics)

    So yea, make your jokes. I suppose you’re in a position to do so. I’ll just keep it chill.

    @Joe

    Great response …. and some very good points in regard to Arenas’ past. But in this league, a lot of players have matured to make their team championship contenders. I have a slight feeling that Arenas is potentially one of those players. This is (goes without saying), a make-or-break year for him…..so we will see.

    If the Wiz aren’t meant to be close this year, then hey, both of you guys are right.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    Friends,

    Go easy on TruthAboutIt-he’s a great blogger and a friend.

  • ChillFAN

    Look, most of us were Spurs fans for years and years while we carried the “soft” tag, so I’m not trying to kick anyone else when they are down. TruthAboutIt mentioned he was a blogger, I’m sure he’s a big kid and doesn’t need an apology (nonetheless, I’m sorry if I joked too harshly) I was just exposing that “our owner decided he wants a championship now” is not a reasonable premise.

    I’m happy that other teams downgrade Manu’s value, because I hope we can keep him. Manu’s fearless and smart; he knows how to do the little things to win games. Those won’t change as he ages.

    When I visited Sacto, Salt Lake and Portland over the past couple of years I found great NBA fans through championship droughts-who doesn’t want to win it all? I wish everyone the best, except the Kobes. This once great franchise, LA, with the best player ever-Magic Johnson, who played EVERY position at the highest level-is now the trash of the league because of the Kobes selfishness. (Varner, please don’t ask me to apologize.)

  • Joe

    Spurs fans, I’m going to digress from our team for one post — hope you don’t mind.

    TruthAboutIt, as a part-time Wiz fan, too, I’d like to see them take that next step. Butler and Jamison are great guys, and I like how patient they’ve been with their core over the years.

    I also agree that, on the court, Arenas might yet mature into the type of player that can win big. I still think, however, that he can’t be that guy in the huddle and on the practice floor — it’s just not in his personality, and I don’t see that kind of chutzpah in anyone else on the roster, either. I see the Wiz as being somewhat similar to the Hawks in terms of what Bibby brought to that team. They’re loaded with young talent, but neither Joe Johnson nor Josh Smith has that off-court mentality to be the alpha dog on a legit title contender. Even though Bibby’s game isn’t what it once was, he changed the culture (not that they have a shot at the title, but they can at least push elite teams to a 6 or 7 game series). The Wiz need that kind of guy — he doesn’t have to be the most talented player on the floor for them, he just needs to bring the maturity, charisma, and experience to lead a team with his words and attitude. Maybe even someone like Raja Bell would be enough to make that difference for you. Or maybe, if Pollin is serious about taking on salary, you guys go after Shaq with Jamison, your #5, a young guy, and filler as the bait.

    At any rate, all the best to you guys this summer and in the season ahead. May we meet (and crush you) in the finals!!!

  • http://www.truthaboutit.net/ Truth About It

    Yea, I don’t need any apologies.

    Shaq? Gross! Cleveland can have him.

  • http://www.bulletsforever.com/ Pradamaster

    Yo, folks, chill. The only reason Truth was coming over here was to pour cold water on the whole “the Wizards need to cut salary pronto” story. It’s bogus, or at the very least incomplete. Not only because the owner has dropped his “no luxury tax” stance, but because the Wizards have passed on several chances to do so. They could have traded Jamison to Cleveland for cap relief, but didn’t. They didn’t have to make the Crittenton trade, which added more salary to their payroll. They didn’t have to re-sign Arenas and Jamison. They did all that. So to say now that they’re willing to trade one of their three best players for salary relief is a bit odd. It’s not y’all’s fault; too many mainstream scribes have written this story as fact.

    No, like Truth said, the Wizards want to trade the pick because they don’t want to develop another young guy, since they suck at it. (Compared to the Spurs, who are historically great at it). If salary gets cut while swapping the pick, fine, but it’s not the priority. The priority is to pick up another “veteran” who can play with the Big 3+Haywood. Ginobili is just one type of player who could fit the bill.

    Now, whether that vision makes sense, that’s another thing, as is the whole discussion about Arenas (personally, I think y’all are crazy to doubt him … Arenas wasn’t the problem with this team in the past, it was the coaching, lack of depth and poor roster balance), but let’s not be intellectually dishonest about where the Wizards are at.