Sunday, November 15th, 2009...8:13 pm
Andrew Bynum is a Game-Changer
During the offseason, I suggested that the Lakers had begun a movement of super-contenders by changing the model for winning an NBA championship from 3 stars and a bunch of role players to a 5 star, get-out-our-way template. To make this thesis work, I considered Andrew Bynum a star player. Many readers took exception. “Andrew Bynum, heh! What has he ever done?”
I wonder how many of those readers would protest now? Andrew Bynum is one of the best pivots in basketball, and his 20 points, 12 boards and 1.5 blocks per game are Duncanesque.
This portends bad things for the entire league, the Spurs included.
The Lakers’ roster is an embarrassment of riches, and Andrew Bynum gives them a second unquestioned All-Star post player.
The best teams in the league feature dominant interior play. The Blazers, whose length and athleticism already bother most teams, boast an Aldridge-Oden-Przyzbilla frontcourt. The Celtics feature Garnett-Perkins-Wallace. The Nuggets get surprisingly good production from Andersen-Nene-Martin. Even the Hawks threesome of Horford-Pachulia-Smith is potent.
The Spurs’ current roster features two terrific post defenders in Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess, but it seems over matched when compared to their best opponents. DeJuan Blair, for all his rookie flare, is not a reliable defensive option. It’s too easy for opponents to shoot over top the promising rookie.
Coming into the season, the Spurs seemed to have their bases covered. Duncan and McDyess were obvious, and it was thought that one of Ian Mahinmi, Theo Ratliff, Marcus Haislip or DeJuan Blair would pick up the slack. Matt Bonner, for all his positive production, has never been thought of in terms of pivot defense.
Too bad for the Spurs that Ian Mahinmi and Marcus Haislip underperformed their way onto the inactive list and Theo Ratliff has simply looked ineffective. DeJuan Blair is a rotation fixture, but he’s clearly not yet up to the challenge of defending the likes of Bynum and Gasol. The Spurs are suddenly thin up front.
Earlier this summer, Jay Aych asked a prescient question:
Man, as much as the Spurs have improved this offseason, Splitter sure would be another nice piece to add to counter the Lakers’ bigs, but he’s still a year away from the NBA. I wonder if, come next May, we’ll be writing in this space that Tiago was the one key missing piece of the puzzle that the Spurs needed to overcome L.A.
The Spurs interior defense has sputtered out of the gate, and the early indicators are that this is not simply a matter of chemistry or associated with new players learning a new system. This is a personnel problem. Are the Spurs a post defender short of legitimate contention?
This is not a panic button post. It’s way too early for that. But the Spurs need to ask hard, honest questions about their current frontcourt rotation. Can Theo Ratliff be depended on to play better, or have his 36 years got the better of his game? Should the Spurs give Ian Mahinmi another look at center? How much will DeJuan Blair improve between now and the playoffs? Or, is it already time for the Spurs to think about their options on the trade market?
The Spurs pushed all-in this summer. It’s always about the postseason in San Antonio. So you know their every calculation has May and June in view. In basketball time, February’s trade deadline is a long way off. But it’s not too difficult to imagine what the league will look like this postseason. And that’s all that counts for the Spurs.
Maybe this explains Gregg Popovich’s frequent forays into San Antonio Warriors basketball. The Spurs could benefit long term by finding line ups that effectively force their opponents small. Otherwise, big for big, they’re currently a man short.
18 Comments
November 15th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
yes at first we were all excited about the spurs makeover but once everything settled we realized we were thin up front for sure. i dont know why pop isnt trying to push haislip, im guessing pop knows more about the guy than we do lol so i trust him when he doesnt even pull a guy off the bench for a few seconds. there must be some bad things haislip is/or isnt showing in practice. now i have been thinking about this for a while, do you think it would be stupid to go for camby lets say for one year deal? the one center i would love to have and think because of the coach we might be able to get is chandler for the right trade. what are your thoughts tim on some options we have, and do you think okafor would be any help here if we could even get him?
November 15th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
Zack,
How do the Spurs get Camby without doing damage to the rest of their roster? And how do they get Camby in terms of giving the Clippers an attractive package? I ask without animus. Camby would be great, I just don’t see the deal.
The Spurs don’t need to hit a homerun. They just need a serviceable post defender. And with Tiago Splitter in waiting, they would be wise not to take on a long term contract unless it was for a can’t miss player with plenty of gas left in the tank.
Normally, it’s in the team’s best interest to wait until deadline to make a move. The problem with doing that in this case is 1) the Spurs risk unnecessary minutes for Duncan and McDyess and 2) it will take time for the new guy to learn the system. Maybe Kurt Thomas is the answer.
November 15th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
[...] about Andrew Bynum is a Game-Changer [...]
November 15th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
This article is a bit daunting, but the Rockets beat the Lakers just a while ago. This gives me hope about our chances.
Go Spurs Go!
November 15th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Bynum has always had the potential. The key for him is health and motivation (to do it on both ends of the court). Outside of those concerns, he is scary.
Spurs have Mason, Bonner, and Finley all with contracts that are expiring after this season. If they can find a desperate team wanting to shed some cap, it’s possible.
I still wish Malik and Marcus would get some play early on to see if they could help. They both possess athleticism and give some more versatility. Marcus is still a big question mark of course with little preseason play. And Malik, well he’s just getting severe rookie treatment.
Spurs advantage over Lakers will be a better all around team with the strong bench. However, I don’t believe with all the guys they have currently on the active roster, they are ready on the defensive end, at least.
November 15th, 2009 at 11:31 pm
Tim I know it isn’t what we want to do in terms of the long run, but what if we thru in splitter to get that homerun big with gas in the tank. I mean a proven big, I’ve been watching the spurs for a long time and it pains me to watch Timmy fight hard and lose. I wish I could donate my knees for the good of the team. Maybe bonner finley splitter and a draft pick can talk a gm into letting go of a chandler or anyone who can take the reins from timmy down low.
November 16th, 2009 at 8:40 am
Tim - you say you don’t see a Camby trade being realistic… but if we are all-in this season, then wouldn’t a trade for him with one or more of the following be possible? Blair, Mahinmi, McDyess, Ratliff… perhaps even the rights to Splitter?
I’m not necessarily endorsing any of these possibilities… but if Camby is our missing link for this season - why wouldn’t we do it? If mgt doesn’t, yet believes we don’t currently match up, wouldn’t they then be pushing our chips in for next season? (and going against everything this season was supposed to be about.)
November 16th, 2009 at 8:48 am
I don’t know. Orlando got to the finals last year, and I wouldn’t call Rashard Lewis a better post defender than Bonner.
The last Spurs title team used Oberto, Elson, and Horry for interior defense. Not too lofty a standard, no?
November 16th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Remember all the preseason talk about having “too many” bigs?
I’m certain Duncan’s current lackadaisical interior defense is both intentional and temporary. I am not worried about him and McDyess matching up against any post tandem come playoff time, nor am I worried about RJ matching up with any 3 (including Odom/Artest) or Blair handling the West’s selection of backups. But it’d really be nice to have a true big who could eat regular season minutes and let the senior citizens rest. Playing Timmy 35 minutes in back-to-backs is no ones idea of proper tendonosis management.
November 16th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Or they could just go the logical thing, which is pair McDyess with Duncan and (against the bigger teams) use Ratliff more. Also, they could give Mahinmi a look against weaker competition. In the end, will this suffice? There’s no way of knowing, but this gives them the best chance.
Honestly, they probably need one more big, which is why Spurs fans should be rooting for the Clippers to continue to struggle. If they do, then expect Camby (expiring contract) to be put on the market. With the Spurs’ cadre of expiring contracts plus a 1st round pick, they could make this work.
To me, he’d be perfect. He’s an actual center, is on an expiring contract (meaning he could bridge the gap until Splitter’s presumed 2010 arrival), is an excellent help defender/rebounder/shot blocker, a competent mid-range shooter/passer and would allow Duncan to go back to playing the majority of his minutes at power forward.
In the playoffs, the Spurs could go with a three man big rotation of Duncan-Camby-McDyess and do away with this nonsense known as “small ball” once and for all.
November 16th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
That “Duncanesque” stat line is based on less than 10 games played this season. Three of those eight were Lakers losses. He pulled down three boards in 37 minutes against a Hawks team that gave them a scare at Staples. When Pau gets back, his numbers will fall back to earth. Sure he is a great second or third post option, but an unquestioned All-Star?
There are enough reasons to fear the Lakers without jumping on the Bynum-is-the-next-Rondo speculation wagon.
November 16th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
haha,
I don’t know if you remember, but i was behind you 100%. Of course i am a lakers fan, but i think you needed to be a lakers fan or a very serious NBA fan, to understand the impact Bynum could and would make.
The reason most fans, including Spurs fans, were laughing at the thought of an All-Star Bynum over the offseason, was because they judged him based on his playoff performance. He came back with 4 games to go in the regular season and was still playing on 1 leg. Of course he was going to have a sub-par playoffs.
Bynum has shown this ability 2 years ago. He has had freak accidents which put him on the sidelines and thus retarded his growth. But now that he is healthy, Bynum is showing everyone that it is not all about POTENTIAL. That when healthy, Bynum is the best pure center in the West!
November 16th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
Shaun,
Your post is just too biased to be taken seriously. The Hawks gave them a “scare” at the staple center? Is this the same game where the lakers were up by 24 or so points in the 2nd half? The game where the hawks big scare was to cut it down to like 10?
Bynum is a shoe in for this year as the starting center. When Pau gets back that just means less double teams for Bynum, Odom moving to the bench to strengthen the weak link, and Kobe having less post plays.
If you still cannot see Bynum’s talent, then it is pure bias doing the talking. Let’s just go over a few of his numbers. Sure the 21 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks and almost 1 steal per game are impressive. But what really shocks is his efficiency. This guy has a TS% of 63%. That is absurd. Just as a comparison, Duncan has never shot above 58% for an entire season, and Duncan is also absurdly efficient.
November 16th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
Don’t worry, Kaveh, Bynum will manage to toss up a few more bricks as the season progresses.
November 16th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
Also, don’t forget that these “Duncanesque” numbers of his come from 40 minutes of gameplay.
November 17th, 2009 at 12:30 am
Are you seriously touting the Anderson, Martin, and Nene front line? I think i threw up in my mouth when you compared those scrubs to the Spurs front court.
November 18th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
I’m pretty sure we can find plenty of eight game stretches where Duncan had true shooting over 63.
And I doubt we can find many eight game stretches where Bynum played at all. Talk to me in February about the All-Star game.
November 26th, 2009 at 5:05 am
Can I make a quick request? Could you please never compare Andrew Bynum to Tim Freakin Duncan? Thankyou
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