Monday, April 5th, 2010...4:51 am
Arnovitz: The Lakers’ nightmare fourth quarter
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Kevin Arnovitz, of TrueHoop and ClipperBlog, provides this breakdown from the fourth quarter of last night’s San Antonio Spurs-Los Angeles Lakers tilt. As Arnovitz points out, the Lakers look, uh, rough down the stretch. And the Spurs, I might add, are inching closer to unmistakable Spurs basketball.
Arnovitz wonders whether the Lakers and Spurs will meet in the first round of the playoffs, and, if so, should such a match-up worry the Lakers? For more on this question, see Matt Moore’s clever “…should San Antonio aim for LA…” piece from Pro Basketball Talk. Moore makes an interesting case that such a match-up would suit San Antonio well, especially if the Lakers open the playoffs short Andrew Bynum.
31 Comments
April 5th, 2010 at 5:48 am
When you guys have a chance, many of us are waiting on pins and needles to get an injury update / timeline for Hill and McDyess. Thanks for your blog!
April 5th, 2010 at 6:05 am
@JimHenderson
if you are reading this blog, check out that “..should sa aim for la” post. apparantely, my logic isn’t as askewed as you might think. you remember.
@ jacob. mcdyess isn’t expected to miss time.
losing george hill is really going to hurt, but nevertheless, yesterday’s game was great for my health. i kinda liked seeing ian in there a total of 8 seconds after dejuan picked up a quick foul. he had a nice board and put gasol on his back. nice to see a tower out there wearing silver and black.
we should have no fear of the purple and gold
April 5th, 2010 at 6:06 am
Manu is giving lots of teams nightmares these days.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:25 am
The Spurs are scaring every team in the league right now. However, playing on the road is tough. Spurs should focus on winning a series in 6 games or less, to avoid a 7th game on the road.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:28 am
Is there any player as unstoppable as Manu is right now? No matter how you defend him he’ll find out how to defeat it, every single time.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:39 am
Good Morning to fellas of the 48…
Great to pick up a W against Lakers. Great to pick up W’s over top teams over the past few weeks. Has to be a boost of confidence for the team as it closes in on the playoffs.
Im sure that the cheer leaders and Pep Squads are cheering uncontrollably for the Spurs right now. Frustrates me because I cant join the cheering section just yet.
Still frustrating to see Bogans logging over 20 minutes (6 pts/1rebound)…
I would be sold on him getting minutes if he were a better defender than Hairston. I dont think he is. He is merely stronger physically. Hairston should own his minutes. Bogans will eventually hurt our chances.
As for our frontcourt. This is the main issue that I have with Pop and this FO. Spurs have no depth in the frontcourt, as evidenced when Pop put Blair in the game to guard Gasol. It just wont work.
Sooner or later a team will decide to try to beat us in the low block. Cant understand why they havent already.
Once that happens, what will Spurs do when Duncan or Mcdyess are in foul trouble or injured?
Cant even consider Mahinmi as part of the team. He is simply a fan with great tickets.
This will haunt this coach in the playoffs.
I noticed how intently the entire Lakers bench watched Mahinmi when he came into the game last night.
However, Mahinmi shouldnt be concerned…He will have a job next season evcen if Spurs dont try to re-sign him.
Fianlly, Somebody help me with this….
As badly as Spurs need help in the frontcourt (not starters, just role players to come in and play spot minutes to spell our bigs)….
Why this coach and FO would fill 3 roster spots with D League guards, instead of bringing in a big or two is mindboggling.
It will be our downfall in the playoffs.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:42 am
I’m cautiously optimistic. I think we’re finally seeing the Spurs team we all expected - great defense to go with just enough scoring.
However, I’m trying to temper my enthusiasm after yesterday’s game. If the Lakers are without Bynum, they don’t scare me at all. In fact, w/o Bynum, I don’t think the Lakers can beat Dallas, Denver, Utah, or the Spurs in a seven game series. While Bynum is an efficient scorer, his real value is on the defensive end. He and Gasol present the best defensive post tandem in the league; he’s just one more big, athletic body to throw at TD. He also provides another deterrent at the rim. While I think Manu can still finish in the paint when Bynum and Gasol are in, it just makes it that much tougher. They’re a much better defensive team when Bynum is healthy and playing 30 minutes/game.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:52 am
@Ballhog
What exactly has Mahinmi shown that says he’ll be a really solid NBA player? I mean really, what is all this based on? Not like he gets significant minutes, so what observation is this based on? Are you somehow able to pickup big clues based on his few minute cameos in games?
I follow the Nets too and it’s aaaalways like this with guys that never play. Posters were saying that Sean Williams was being held back too. They said some team was sure to recognize his talent and pick him up and we’d all see. Now he’s in China. I expect Mahinmi to be back in the D-league after the season is over
Guys that never play are the same as prison inmates who get millions of proposals. They get so much love because they’re the ultimate long distance relationship. They never significantly play, so you never see how bad they would be if they did and you get to stay in the fantasy that they would be good if they got to play.
Please, give tangible proof and not just conjecture and suppositions
April 5th, 2010 at 6:52 am
@ BALLHOG
i don’t see how you continue to criticize keith bogans when he is clearly producing on the court. your argument is not based on any sort of criteria other than favoritism. bogans had some timely 3 pointers and some nice strips on kobe. but to be fair, hairston had some nice d out there well.
i don’t know about the laker bench intently watching mahinmi out there. frankly i watched the same game and i didn’t see anything like that out there, but if you see my last post, i am in agreement that his height may be helpful for us especially when bynum returns. i say we should resign mahnimi for the summer league. if he doesn’t dominate, then we let him go.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:54 am
@ muwu
ian is past d-league eligibility
he will have an NBA job
April 5th, 2010 at 6:54 am
One other note:
TD looked more determined in the post in the last two games than I can remember. For example, when Orlando cut the Spurs’ lead to 4 pts (I think) at the beginning of the 4th, we went to TD on the block two out of 3 trips (the other he hit a jumper). TD received the ball and went straight at Howard, scoring easily. I saw the same aggressiveness yesterday when Tim went at Pau, a guy he struggled with earlier in the year.
Maybe I’m reading too much into a small sample, but I think it’s safe to say TD (along with the rest of the team) is playing with a sense of urgency right now. Good to see. Let’s hope he keeps it up.
April 5th, 2010 at 7:01 am
I mean he won’t be assigned to the d-league, that’s where he’ll be playing. If not overseas. And really an NBA job? What body of work will other NBA teams go to see when they evaluate Mahinmi? What are they gonna go and see and go, “we gotta get this guy!”? Job warming someone elses bench at best.
April 5th, 2010 at 7:05 am
[...] A breakdown of LA’s Horrible 4th Quarter [...]
April 5th, 2010 at 7:09 am
Mahinmi is the ultimate tease. Big and athletic, but with no basketball instincts. Isn’t he more experienced as a volleyball player?
April 5th, 2010 at 7:15 am
@Ballhog
To answer your question about the D-League guard signings, it obvious why we’ve done it. Parker is injured, Mace is playing poorly, and Manu is logging copious amounts of minutes. And now Hill just went down as well, making the rotation even thinner. The guards, sans Manu and Hill, are playing worse than the bigs, despite what you might think. It’s down to Manu and Mason, possibly until the end of the regular season. Seems like Pop might have known what he was doing.
Also, even if we signed a few random big men from D-League rosters, they wouldn’t be getting any burn anyway, so what would be the point? We already know the players that are going to be on the roster. If Duncan or Dice go down, Ian Mahinmi will get all the minutes you’re asking for, and he’d be better prepared than some random D-Leaguer.
Hairston was in there, getting some quality minutes in crunchtime, even after he made a couple of terrible mistakes that helped the Lakers get back into the game. Both he and Bogans played pretty well overall. You have to throw a platoon at Kobe Bryant or he’ll eat your lunch. Pop realizes this because he’s an excellent coach. You want Hairston getting all of Bogans’ minutes, guarding Kobe exclusively? Good luck with that…
April 5th, 2010 at 7:27 am
Also, the D-League guard signings seem like another positive indication that Splitter will, in fact, be coming over next year. Pointless to sign 1 or 2 bigs that will never get minutes this year, and then won’t get minutes next year once Splitter arrives either.
April 5th, 2010 at 8:40 am
Kobe is passed his peak, he has been shooting poorly the whole season and also lacks the drive he had after Shaq left.He also is hesitant to get to the line these days.Clearly overrated from a former #1 KB24 fan
April 5th, 2010 at 8:43 am
Spurs Suck Ass
April 5th, 2010 at 9:12 am
This is why I’ve been saying don’t be scared if the SPURS get the 8th spot. Lakers are so beatable. They were beatable last year, but teams just couldn’t execute.
Also a lot has been said about MANU’s age. KOBE isn’t exactly a rookie either. He’s been looking sluggish these last few games.
April 5th, 2010 at 9:56 am
For those who think that just because a player doesn’t get much playing time he must suck, there are countless examples of guys who just needed an opportunity. After all, our own Bruce Bowen kicked around for many years, both in the US and Europe. Chauncey Billups, Raja Bell, ditto. Even Manu was not recruited to join the Spurs until four years after he was drafted. Americans are authority worshipers inspite of evidence.
On Kobe: at 62, I’m old enough to remember Ali in his prime … and past it. During the latter part of his career, fans like me would wait and wait for him to flip the switch, the way he could when he was young, and kick his opponent’s ass. Didn’t happen and then it was too late. Kobe has two more years in the NBA than Timmeh. He can still turn it on for very short bursts, but those bursts are getting shorter and shorter…and they’ll never get longer. What we saw yesterday will fast become the norm, indeed, it may already be.
April 5th, 2010 at 10:11 am
We’re not saying he must suck because he isn’t getting playing time. We’re saying don’t proclaim him as the solution to all our problems when that claim is not based on evidence on his performance on the court. A lot of people are quick to say that players who never play would do so well if they got playing time because they never get to see the actual quality of their play in significant minutes, you never get to see them fail
April 5th, 2010 at 11:07 am
The key to our wins recently has been the resurgence of our team defense (improved offensive execution down the stretch in these games has also helped). Over the last six games against the top teams in the league (OKC, LA, Cavs, Celts, Magic, LA), we’ve held our opponents to an average of 89.8 points per game, which is in line with our season avgs. during our last three championship years. This is HUGE, and needs to be continued in every game the rest of the way.
By the way, one of our biggest games coming up, in my view, is actually the one in Sacramento tomorrow night. I would guess that it’s unlikely Hill will play. It is very important that we establish a “in the heat of battle” team attitude heading into the playoffs, and there is no better way to solidify that mentality than getting a big win on the road without one of our key players. It appears we were able to shrug off the Net embarrassment from a psychological perspective (let’s hope the “L” doesn’t come back to bite us in terms of seeding), but we cannot afford another fiasco against an over-matched King’s squad. They are still an NBA team that cannot be taken lightly. I say we try to beat them big, with or without Hill. The bench needs to come up big because we have a b2b on the road in Phoenix the following night.
Tyler
April 5th, 2010 at 6:42 am
I echo your sentiments exactly. Really nice win, but it is just one game. Also, while Bynum makes LA much better, as you point out, I think the Lakers would be a tough out even without Bynum. Hell, they won the title last year without him. I wouldn’t want to play them in the first round, with or without Bynum.
muwu
April 5th, 2010 at 6:52 am
I’m not at all sold on Mahinmi. He may be beyond D-League, but from what I can tell, he’s still an end-of-the-bencher for a good team. Nice post!
rj
April 5th, 2010 at 6:52 am
You’re right to defend Bogans from ad hominem attacks, because he is in fact playing better and more consistently over the past few weeks in whatever role Pop puts him into (ranging from about 5 to 25 minutes). I had argued previously, soon after the all-star break, to give Hairston a shot at Bogans role, but I believe it’s now too late to make that big of a change, and also not justified by Bogans recent play. He actually did a pretty good job harassing Kobe yesterday.
junierizzle
April 5th, 2010 at 9:12 am
A really nice win, but it is only one game. Bynum is HUGE for the Lakers, especially against us. That said, I still wouldn’t want to face LA in the first round, with or without Bynum. Give me any other team first.
agutierrez
April 5th, 2010 at 9:56 am
I think you’re jumping the gun on Kobe. He is a year or two past his peak, but he still has some considerable game left for at least another four years. Just look at the game-winners he’s thrown in this year. Incredible.
Sure, he’s been a bit beat up this season, and did look a little tired yesterday, but you can be as assured as tomorrow’s sunrise that he’ll be back for another day in the sun. He has tremendous will-power & competitive fire. He’s not going softly into the night any time soon.
April 5th, 2010 at 11:52 am
@Jim Henderson
BYNUM and GASOL cancel each other out. They can’t both have big games. They can’t both get touches. They are always going to go to GASOL. BYNUM just gets the crumbs. BYNUM can be taken out by boxing out.
Like I said, I wouldn’t be scared if The SPURS slipped to the 8th spot with or without BYNUM. I think they can win. I wouldn’t for a second think they have no shot.
You cannot underestimate MANU. He’s not just great, he’s amazing. He wills the team to victory. Just like JORDAN used to.
Having said that, I hope they don’t lose any steam. I hope they keep winning and get the highest seed possible. That would do wonders for everyones confidence.
April 5th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
rj
April 5th, 2010 at 6:05 am
@JimHenderson
if you are reading this blog, check out that “..should sa aim for la” post. apparantely, my logic isn’t as askewed as you might think. you remember.
“rj”, the beginning of that article starts out like this:
“Gregg Popovich said before Sunday’s game with the Lakers that every Western Conference team is trying to avoid the Lakers in round one. Via ESPN:
“The ones that say, ‘We don’t care who we play,’ they’re full of baloney,” Popovich said. “We’re all trying to hide from the Lakers in the first round and that’s the truth.”
“Really, it’s like, ‘Who do you want to play in the first round?,’” Popovich continued before sarcastically answering his question. “Oh, the Lakers! We’ll play the Lakers!”
Now, one either thinks Pop was joking in his comments above, or he’s engaging in gamesmanship. Neither scenario is likely in my opinion.
Besides, Moore himself is clearly equivocal about “wanting” to play LA in round one, and that’s with the hope that Bynum is either not there, or is appreciably rusty. This is as close as he comes in his post to endorse an LA match-up in round one:
“You want to win the West? You have to go through LA. And while going through them early may not make a difference rather than later, it may present the best opportunity……”.
Weak, and wishy-washy argument, at best.
And this is Moore’s point from a different post, advising not to draw many conclusions from one game (the last LA game):
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/04/will-lakers-vs-spurs-sunday-teach-us-anything.php
I’ll take the comments of Pop, as quoted above, over any blogger’s assessment of whether we should actually want LA in the first round. And Pop’s comments are in complete agreement with my previous comments on the matter.
April 5th, 2010 at 12:20 pm
Muwu:
Don’t create a straw man. No one who has called for a look at folks like Ian and Malik and others EVER said they were the answer to our prayers, only that they deserved a look, especially after the mediocre (at best) play of others during the first three-quarters of the season.
April 5th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
@Jim Henderson
“You want to win the West? You have to go through LA. And while going through them early may not make a difference rather than later, it may present the best opportunity……”.
Weak, and wishy-washy argument, at best.
That’s not a weak argument, those are the facts.
Besides, why are you even wasting your energy posting?
In your eyes The SPURS have no shot.
April 5th, 2010 at 2:22 pm
junierizzle
April 5th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
“Besides, why are you even wasting your energy posting?
In your eyes The SPURS have no shot.”
Just because I look at the facts, does not mean that I don’t have an interest in the team, or in making comments on the blog. You just appear to always look at the rose-colored scenarios rather than the most likely outcomes.
We simply don’t have the horses on the front-line to contend with the high echelon teams this year. I credit Pop & the players for at least recently giving it all they have to at least get into the playoffs this year and hopefully make some noise. But “making noise” is one thing, being a “true” contender is another.
Hey, I’m all for the Spurs — a 20/1 shot — to win the title. And maybe if we can sustain the way we’ve been playing recently the odds will go down to 5-10 to one by the end of the regular season. But those are still pretty long odds. I just call a spade a spade.
April 5th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
Moore wants the Spurs to play LA in the first round as fan of the NBA which I understand. That doesn’t make it the most desireable path for SA. Yes, the Spurs can beat LA then. But they can also beat them later, after they’ve gone through a physical round or two against someone else. If they (LA) even make it past those teams.
He has two flaws in his logic: 1) that LA is more ripe for being defeated now. How will Kobe heal when he’s playing 40+ minutes per night supporting an empty bench and getting beaten up for 6-7 games in a series? The Spurs could also use some time to get Tony back in rhthym. 2) That SA wants to avoid Dallas. Yes, the Mavs have won the most recent two games. So had LA until Sunday. Now that Manu is Manu and the entire team is playing Spurs defense, why would Dallas be more of a worry than LA? Plus, aren’t the Mavs struggling as much as LA now, with some older players too? It’s also conveinent that he left out that one of those Spurs losses was in OT in Dallas, without Manu and Tony. I’m thinking that might’ve made a slight difference.
April 5th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
@Jim Henderson
Have you seen the WEST? It’s up for grabs this year. The SPURS are right there with the “top teams” They’ve been playing better when it counts. The top teams are playing badly right now.
What’s rose-colored about the SPurs going 11-4 in the last 15? MAnu taking over games? RJ finally being consistent? Ghill playing at a high lever? Beating the Magic,Thunder, Celtics and LAkers (3 of those convincingly)? The Lakers getting blown out 4 out of their last 6 games? Spurs being No3 in the Hollinger rankings? and TP waiting in the wings???????
Yeah it’s really a stretch to think they have a shot.(Sarcastic)
I never said the SPURS were going to win, but to say they don’t have a chance is ridiculous.
I’m just calling a spade a spade.
April 5th, 2010 at 7:53 pm
junierizzle
April 5th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
Look, the West is fairly evenly matched this year, except that the Lakers, when healthy, are still a level above the rest.
You tend to put “undue” emphasis on “recent” performance and individual personalities/talents, as opposed to looking at the Spurs “team” as a “whole”. For example, you appear to dismiss the fact that the Spurs do not match up favorably in the front court against the top level teams. We are without doubt lacking in youth, height, and depth, particularly from a defensive standpoint in the paint.
This is a critical weakness that will get exploited by teams like Cleveland, Orlando, LA, Boston, and Dallas in a 7-game series, should we get the opportunity to play any of these teams during a playoff run. I don’t know, perhaps you forget, or don’t fully realize, how important depth, size, and a strong defensive presence in the interior is to winning a title. You tell me.
And by the way, I never said the Spurs couldn’t win the title this year. I said the chances of the Spurs winning a title this year are indeed remote, and I’m unabashedly convinced most reasonable observers would concur with that assessment.
April 6th, 2010 at 12:56 am
Oh Arnovitz, such sensual tone…
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