Sunday, March 7th, 2010...8:59 am
Best Bets Without Parker
Wayne Winston, who achieved celebrity status at Dorkapalooza 2010, emailed this morning to say the Spurs should be fine without Parker, at least over the balance of the season. Obviously, they’ll need Parker in order to compete in postseason play.
The APM answer to Tony Parker’s injury, at least in the short term, is to mitigate the loss of Parker with more minutes for Bonner and a variety of three guard units featuring Manu Ginobili.
| Best Lineups Without Parker | |
| Hill-Mason-Ginobili-Bonner-Duncan | +63.31 |
| Hill-Ginobili-Jefferson-Bonner-Blair | +44.44 |
| Hill-Mason-Ginobili-Jefferson-Duncan | +34.42 |
| Hill-Mason-Ginobili-Jefferson-McDyess | +28.09 |
| Hill-Mason-Ginobili-Bonner-Blair | +25.29 |
| Hill-Ginobili-Bogans-Jefferson-Duncan | +24.44 |
| Hill-Mason-Ginobili-McDyess-Duncan | +14.34 |
| Hill-Mason-Ginobili-Blair-McDyess | +10.35 |
Winston adds this postscript:
- With Parker out, Duncan, Manu, Hill and Mason have been great. They have a +28 rating in 110 minutes of play. A 5th of either McDyess, Bogans, Bonner or Jefferson work fine.
- With Duncan and Parker out, Blair, McDyess, Manu, Hill , and Mason has a +18 rating in 46 minutes.
- With Manu and Parker out, a core of Blair, Jefferson, and Hill has a +16 rating in 99 minutes. Many others can fill out the 5.
- With Parker and Hill out, Manu, Bonner and Mason have a +33 rating in 44 minutes of play.
In other words, the Spurs have several Parker-less combos to build on. “As they progress forward, some good lineups will emerge,” says Winston.
Looking at tomorrow’s game against Cleveland, a starting backcourt of Hill-Mason makes the most sense based on the table above. And three guard units, but not necessarily small-ball units, of Hill-Mason-Ginobili should enjoy heavy minutes.
According to Winston’s numbers, it seems Keith Bogans is the only current rotation player whose role could diminish because of Parker’s injury.
Finally, the Parker injury might force the Spurs to fill their 13th roster spot with a point guard. Curtis Jerrells, phone your office.
41 Comments
March 7th, 2010 at 10:45 am
Bonner for Western Conference Player of the Month!
I have forseen it.
March 7th, 2010 at 10:56 am
Has Will Conroy been signed? He would be an awesome point guard to try out
March 7th, 2010 at 11:04 am
What is the spurs record this season with and w/o Parker in the lineup?
March 7th, 2010 at 11:25 am
I’m curious whether those +# stats are against opposing teams starters or bench. One of the big, big advantages the Spurs have is points of the bench. The second unit is really playing well together, especially Manu, Jefferson, and Blair. I don’t think it should be messed with. Put Mason in the starting line-up and live with his defense. P.S. - I realize a “second unit” is a bit of a misnomer, but there’s no denying that Jefferson has been playing much better ball coming off the bench with Manu.
March 7th, 2010 at 11:29 am
I think the Spurs are 5-4 without Parker. A couple of those games Manu was also missing I believe. Not sure if Duncan missed any.
March 7th, 2010 at 11:31 am
Having seen Denver win without Melo (but not without Billups) and Portland without Roy (thanks to Bayless stepping up) I know the Spurs can sustain the next 4-5 weeks without Parker. It’s not the same as losing Manu or TD. Team defense and passing plus RMJ stepping up his scoring will carry the team through this regular season time.
The main hope is that TP can get some games in before the playoffs begin, in hopes of finding some rhythm, his tear-drop and jumper. That he can finally rest his hip and legs will come in handy should this team ascend and make a deep playoff run.
March 7th, 2010 at 12:17 pm
We are capable of “weathering the storm” without Tony, but the remaining schedule is really, really tough. The other thing to keep in mind is that if we assume that he will be back in time for the playoffs, how long INTO the playoffs will it take for Tony to “get right.” Bonner’s hand injury has taken him weeks to get over (and are we even sure he’s over it yet?) and Tony’s right hand is at least as important as Bonner’s to their overall games.
I, too, can forsee a Curtis Jarrells call up.
March 7th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
Touching on the latest podcast - hopefully signing Curtis Jerrels to a 10 day contract is an option. Obviously, he wouldn’t see the floor, but it’d be a way to see if he’s ready (or has the potential) to compete at the top level.
Just a tough break. As soon as it looks like we’re putting it all together, another setback. This ruined my weekend…..
March 7th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
No kidding Tyler. Completely wrecked my weekend that was going great. I know that Denver weathered the storm without Melo, but our schedule is much, much harder than what they had to go through. And while it’s nice that I guess he’ll get some rest on some of the other things that have been nagging him, how much better was he really going to play than he already was this last week?
Just too bad. I’m by nature a realist and even I was starting to get roped back into believing we might have a shot after how we’ve played pretty well this last week… and then we get a punch to the stomach and a kick to the face.
March 7th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
Big loss, but Pop knows what he’s doing under these kinds of circumstances. I’d be very surprised if he did not move Hill to the point and start RMJ at SG. Number one, RMJ is the only one on the roster that had been receiving limited minutes who has the capability of limiting the fallout from the loss of Parker’s “point production.” Number two, you don’t want to mess with the bench rotation right now. It’s probably the most productive group (Manu, RJ, Blair, & Bonner) in the league at present.
The question is, as Tim Varner suggests, is Mason up to the task? For me, Mason’s been a major disappointment this year. I don’t think he liked that Pop went with Bogans over him at the start of the year. But instead of taking that as a challenge by working harder to “play” himself back into the rotation, and perhaps into a starting role at SG, he instead withdrew into his shell, and his game suffered as a result.
Mason is a cool customer in the clutch, he has a pretty good all-around game, is actually a decent defender when his “attitude” is focused & positive, and is without doubt one of the premiere 3 - point shooters in the game (off year this year, but # 21 in the NBA among active players in “CAREER 3pt %”, at .391). Also, if anyone’s noticed, Mason is one guy that seems to play “much better” when given “regular”, extended minutes, whether as a starter or in the rotation.
I’m afraid our season very much hangs in balance based on the play of RMJ over the next 6-8 weeks. There’s no question in my mind that he can serve as an adequate stop-gap in the absence of Parker. I’m just hoping that in a contract year he’s READY to maximize his opportunity. We’ll see!
March 7th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
They probably want to use that 13th spot on someone like Curtis Jerrels. Maybe go chase down Marucs Williams?
March 7th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
Excerpts from the article, followed by brief comments.
“According to Winston’s numbers, it seems Keith Bogans is the only current rotation player whose role could diminish because of Parker’s injury.”
Let’s hope so!
“Finally, the Parker injury might force the Spurs to fill their 13th roster spot with a point guard. Curtis Jerrells, phone your office.”
I don’t agree. That’s the last thing this team needs is more guards (unless we have another injury!). The best thing would still be to get an experienced front court player, preferably a shot-blocking presence (one that gets bought out, or waived). At least, that is, if there are any around before it’s too late?! Otherwise, I’d still lean toward Dwayne Jones.
March 7th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
^ Spurs need more ball handling guards. Jerrels is better at ball handling than most on the team. Good to have another guy since Parker is out for some time.
March 7th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
Before I address Spur issues, just wanted to comment on the Lakers Orlando today. Great game…Major intensity…
As for Spurs…
Please, No more guards. If Spurs need anything, it is a front court player wityh attitude.
Hairston should play. He would definately help. mason will be fine as long as he is at the 2.
Im just hoping that this coach gives Mahinmi a chance to do something in the middle. If not, bring somebody in that will bring something other than another guy rotting on the bench.
Im hoping that the loss of TP will rattle his cage a bit and convince him to try something different. Something besides Bogans.
Marcus Williams and Dewayne Jones would be fuel in our tank.
But, we do have the same coach after all…
Im just hoping not to see Bogans on Lebron…I dont think I could bear it….
March 7th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
i am jumping back on the bogans, bonner bandwagon. i was impressed by bogans commitment to defense and the guy takes good shots, hit or miss. bonner is actually becoming a defensive bother for some low post threats and he is mixing up his offensive game. keep it up
i don’t think it will take too long for tony to get in rythm considering most of his money is made on forays to the basket. he just need to get conditioned. it will be easy for the team to get reacclimated to parker.
hang on, fellas
March 7th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
a think a versatile SF, someone with the ability to play solid perimter D would be the best bet. Mason and Hill are both capable or running the point, and with Manu being the only other solid backcourt option a 3/2 guy could fill in and help spell both Manu and Jefferson. McDyess, Tim and Bonner have been doing a decent job of inside D. Hopefully it continues.
March 7th, 2010 at 2:44 pm
[...] about Best Bets Without Parker [...]
March 7th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
My only concern with not calling up a guard for the 13th spot is that sometimes Hill gets into foul trouble. Yes, Mason and Manu can handle duties for a bit, but the team is much smoother when Parker and Hill are running the game. I’d like to see a couple 10 game contracts before the Spurs add someone for the remainder of the season.
March 7th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
Ballhog & Jim Henderson -
If there is a good buyout candidate that can give us some quality minutes down low, then of course you go for it. But even if we did sign a player like that, we could still bring in Jerrels - just deactivate Ian. If Ian hasn’t broken into the rotation yet, he’s not going to. Deactivate Ian, sign the buyout big and sign Jerrels to a 10 day.
As much as I’d like to sign Dwayne Jones, no matter who we bring up from Austin isn’t going to play. If we do sign a buyout big, I don’t think signing Jones makes much sense.
March 7th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
Spurslady brings up exactly why the need for a ball handling guard is needed. Hill tends to be foul prone when he has to play D on a good opposing player. Mason can handle in small stretches, but not over a greatly extended period. Yes there is Manu but you want as many dependable guys who can bring the ball up court.
March 7th, 2010 at 3:53 pm
@ Tyler
Agreed…No sense in bringing Jones up if he not going to play. If Pop feels that they only type player that can come in and contribute would be a buyout vet, then he certainly needs to go out and get one.
As for the guard play…jerrells has played well in the D League and could help, but after watching thge lakers earlier and possibly facing the Mavs or Nuggets in the playoffs,,,Seems that if we dont get some inside presence, it wont matter how many guards we have.
Besides, Hairston is the man. He is the odd man out that could step up and contribute now. He has good size and could match up better with oposing 2′s…..
But again, with this coach….We fans have no idea what is comming, if anything.
Will he bring in a player or wont he?
Just hoping that he doesnt bring in a player that he isnt willing to use…Its ridiculous.
Also @ Tyler
I agree with you on Mahinmi…If he is so awful that he could never be trusted to play…Why in the hell is he here?
If a coach cant evaluate a player in 3 years, we need another coach!
March 7th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
Ballhog
Mahinmi is here because he is under contract. I would be surprised if he is with the Spurs next season.
March 7th, 2010 at 4:42 pm
The only way the Spurs win without TP, is if we have about 15 more games against the Hornets. We are not going to beat elite teams without Parker. This is crazy talk to think that we could lose one of the best scorers on the team and continue like it’s no big deal.
NO Parker = NO playoffs.
March 7th, 2010 at 5:27 pm
@Colin,
With the Spurs cap situation, Ian might just be back due to the limited money the Spurs will have to bring in rotational and 3rd tier players.
Manu and Splitter would suck up the majority of payroll.
Finley is gone. Mason Jr. is almost guaranteed gone. Bonner is still an unsure thing, but he’s a good player if he’s cheaper than his current contract.
Cheap guys like Hairston and Ian (if they convince him to come back for their cheap price) could be a good deal.
March 7th, 2010 at 7:03 pm
Grego
A good deal doesn’t make them valuable on the court. I don’t think Mahinmi can be a consistent contributor on most NBA rosters (some people won’t like that one) and Hairston won’t be much better than 8-10 man in the rotation.
March 7th, 2010 at 7:06 pm
^ Both, especially Hairston have shown they can compete. The big thing is giving them a chance. That doesn’t mean all will be special like Hill. Spurs just need guys who can do more than just shoot (and make shots when they are on)
Not every draft pick nor free agent will work out. But Spurs will have to use their money wisely and take chances on young guys.
March 7th, 2010 at 7:35 pm
rj
March 7th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
“i am jumping back on the bogans, bonner bandwagon. i was impressed by bogans commitment to defense and the guy takes good shots, hit or miss.”
Please don’t co-mingle ineffective players (Bogans) with effective role players (Bonner). They’re not the same at all.
Also, isn’t taking a “good shot” ultimately worthless if it doesn’t actually go in with enough consistency & accuracy? Have we not had enough games to determine that Bogans is neither consistent nor accurate with his “good shots”?
March 7th, 2010 at 7:38 pm
Where is there an updated list of available buyout players???
I would like to see who is available.
March 7th, 2010 at 7:45 pm
Tyler
March 7th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
Sounds reasonable, but I wouldn’t bother signing Jerrels unless we get another injury in the back court. In the meantime, Hill, Mason, & Ginobli should be sufficient to cover the point until Parker returns. I would keep Ian as insurance in the front court (and I would play him 5-10 minutes per game in some games).
March 7th, 2010 at 7:50 pm
grego
March 7th, 2010 at 5:27 pm
“Cheap guys like Hairston and Ian (if they convince him to come back for their cheap price) could be a good deal.”
Not if they don’t play.
March 7th, 2010 at 7:52 pm
Colin
March 7th, 2010 at 7:03 pm
“Hairston won’t be much better than 8-10 man in the rotation.”
That we don’t know because he hardly plays at all.
March 7th, 2010 at 7:54 pm
grego
March 7th, 2010 at 7:06 pm
Agreed.
March 7th, 2010 at 8:11 pm
@Jim,
Next season they will have a chance or someone like them. Hairston is partially guaranteed for next year, so it’s perfect he’s done everything the Spurs wanted him to do.
Ian - well. who knows. He’s shown flashes and his value is low. He’d be good to come back for cheap even if its just as a practice body. Although, a lot will depend upon how the offseason goes.
Lots of roster spots open since there’ll be a lot of spots available even if they pick up some veterans with the min next season.
March 7th, 2010 at 8:22 pm
I’d like many others love to see Malik Hairston eat up some minutes.
I’d also more than anything love to see RJ continue the baby steps forward.
If McDyess gets injured seriously or anyone in the frontcourt for that matter we are going to be super thin and fragile.
March 7th, 2010 at 8:46 pm
Wait, you guys think we are going to be able to resign a super-athletic 7-footer for cheap just because he hasn’t been in the Spurs rotation?
March 7th, 2010 at 8:55 pm
Bushka
March 7th, 2010 at 8:22 pm
“If McDyess gets injured seriously or anyone in the frontcourt for that matter we are going to be super thin and fragile.”
Damn right. That’s why the priority should be on getting a “playable” back-up big over an “insurance” guard, if possible.
March 7th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
@onewing, not not because he hasn’t been in the Spurs rotation. Ian hasn’t shown much and therefore won’t get a lot of attention. He should get some, because he’s tall, but he still won’t get that much.
Pop’s is a good example of someone in the same mode who didn’t do much afterward for example.
March 7th, 2010 at 9:37 pm
this is seriously the worst time to lose parker. I wouldn’t be surprised if we barely made the playoffs
March 8th, 2010 at 7:23 am
We should go and get Andre Emmett, former Texas Tech star, and all-time points leader from Big 12. Guy just dropped 71 points on a team in the CBA. Very good small forward
March 8th, 2010 at 8:28 am
heres another good bet for u spurs fans: TONY PARKER WILL NOW PLAY FOR FRANCE THIS SUMMER. now that he can rest during the spurs season, he will nice and healthy for the summer! great !!! (sarcastic)
March 8th, 2010 at 10:09 am
I say give Mason a chance. I think he’ll surprise a lot of people. Every new shooting guard or small forward that has come to San Antonio has struggled their first year getting used to the system (Turkolu, Brent Barry, Jefferson, Finley, etc). Mason’s one of the first to play great his first year on the Spurs’ team. So he struggled in the playoffs?!? It was his first major go at it. Now he’s got experience, knows what to expect when they come. I think we could use him “actually makings shots” when we go through those dry-spells near the end of the 4th like we always tend to do. Not a great defender, but, the more confidence he gets the harder I’m sure he’ll try. I see him being a diamond in the rough…. still can do great things for us if Pop would just let him and get over his “this player has made me mad so they’re in the doghouse now” crap.
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