Thursday, March 4th, 2010...7:40 am

Blair as Oberto

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Back on December 4, I wrote the following,

Offensively, he [Blair] has the best in-air balance of anyone on the team not named Tony Parker. Blair is a case study of how to properly transform hard contact into shooting space. And his understanding of space is remarkable for such a young player. Strangely enough, Blair reminds me of Fabricio Oberto in his uncanny ability to move into empty space around the hoop and dutifully present himself to the passer. This helps explain why Blair and Ginobili play so well together. DeJuan is practically Argentinean.

In this morning’s Express-News, Jeff McDonald and Manu Ginobili pick up the same conversation.

“I played with Fabri for over 10 years,” said Ginobili, who first met Oberto when they were teenagers in Argentina. “He knew exactly how I wanted the screens. He had a passion for setting screens like I’ve never seen.

…Blair and Ginobili are only in the courtship phase of their relationship, but they pick and roll like an old married couple. With Ginobili supplying the trick-shot passes, and Blair producing the kind of slick catches and nimble finishes that belie his 6-foot-7, 270-pound frame, the Spurs’ second unit often has become must-see theater.

Where Oberto was a Hall of Fame pick-setter, Blair has proven himself adept at the other half of the equation.

“He’s a really good roller,” Ginobili said. “I know he’s going to be attacking the rim. That’s something you can count on, even when you don’t see him.”

That’s an excerpt, and the rest of the article is worth your time. But for now we’ll consider the matter settled: DeJuan Blair is one part Fabricio Oberto, one part Carl Landry.


46 Comments

  • Tristan Wilkins
    March 4th, 2010 at 7:55 am

    blair is playing great when other g.m . where scared the spurs took the gamble and it looks good so far. Go Spurs Go!!!!!!!!!

  • For further study, you should link to the video that I think was posted by Kevin Arnovitz on youtube breaking down the pick and roll. It concentrated on Manu, but Blair was on the receiving end of a lot of passes on that clip. I can’t find it right now.

  • Up until recently when Manu got his game going, Blair really was our 6th man. There have been several times (like that Boston game in the original article) where Blair really was the one who kept us in the game.

  • I’m glad the assistant coaches convinced POP to play him.

    I know he has no shot at Rookie of the year but you can make a case that he has had the best impact on his team.

  • Reminds me more of a Malik Rose. The guy that impressed us enough for us to give him $40+ million

    Although I think Blair has a greater potential

  • I’ve made the Malik Rose comparison myself, usually when discussion Blair with my friend who wants to keep comparing him to Charles Barkley.

    Yes, Blair’s ceiling is probably a bit higher than Malik, but in the grand scheme of things, when his career is over, comparisons to Malik will be much closer than comparisons to Sir Charles.

    Regardless of how much we like him, how hard he works and how good his production is right now, he is still an undersized forward that you cannot run your offense through. Blair is most likely a career role-player; one that we all love to see in the silver and black.

  • OneWing
    March 4th, 2010 at 12:15 pm

    “Yes, Blair’s ceiling is probably a bit higher than Malik, but in the grand scheme of things, when his career is over, comparisons to Malik will be much closer than comparisons to Sir Charles.”

    “Blair is most likely a career role-player; one that we all love to see in the silver and black.”

    We can’t draw these conclusions yet. He’s much too young, and it depends on how obsessive his work ethic is, how he’s developed by his coaches, and what the ultimate impact, if any, his ACL situation has on his career.

  • If Tyreke Evans is the clear cut RoY then DeJuan Blair has to be the clear Runner-Up. Beast has been a great fit for my beloved Spurs and my wife and I love, I mean love, watching the Manu/Beast pick-and-roll. Especially when it ends in a DeJuan Blair dunk. On a side note I think RJ moving to the second unit with ObiwanGinobili and Beast is better for his style of play. If RJ can keep gaining his confidence with the second unit along with Blair and Manu I don’t see the Spurs second unit giving up the title as most productive bench this season.

  • I think if there was a per 48 minute production statistic over rookies, blair would be much better in all categories than evans and therefore win ROY. Evans gets over 40 mpg and blair gets barely 20 and half the time he is at the center position. Make the case, blair for mvp!!!

  • not to burst anybody’s bubble, but i don’t necessarily agree with the fabricio/malik/landry comparisons. now i’m not saying they’re without merit, but the player i see does not bode well for the spurs in the coming years. blame it on the body, blame it on the lack of ligaments, blame it on whatever, but i see more of a post-injury elton brand. i absolutely LOVE blair’s game and attitude, but the body and mobility remind me of a present day elton.

  • Fin picked up by Celtics. They’re probably hoping they get some spot up shooting from 3-pt. land that they lost when they traded Eddie House. I wish him the best. That said, I’d be surprised if he ends up being a steady contributor to that team throughout the playoffs. Just doesn’t have the game anymore, and can’t defend in the least - something the Celtics won’t be able to live with for long.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AnNGsByhkeO2GmHlgSlGPAO8vLYF?slug=ys-finleyceltics030410&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

  • @ bushytop: Blair’s footwork is far better than Brand’s. And he has a better sense of spacing and presence than Brand, too. Consider HOW they play more than what they look like and you’ll see.

  • Sorry for the double, but wanted to say good luck and best wishes to Fin. There’s now a player on the Celtics that I actually like.

  • @SAJKinBigD: sorry but i’m bored at work….
    i definitely know what you’re talking about with the footwork — brand always seems to take the long way around instead of an easy drop step and is not as good a pick and roll player at this point as blair in his rookie year. point conceded there. plus blair has more energy than elton playing on a combination of red bull and coke.
    it’s not that i look at blair like he’s some composite of brand, but there are some similarities in the two at home in the painted-area players — at least more than what i see when the comparison is the triumvirate of rose/landry/oberto. they both love the booty-bump and up move and rely more on misdirection and off hands than length or athleticism (this is where i see landry fitting in too). i also would not want to rely on either one of them if my life depended on someone shooting a 15 footer.
    you think there’s another comparison that we’re all missing? or are these comparisons pointless and only good for arguing?
    ps i hate duke players (except strangely cory magette) so i’m not some elton stan.

  • “I think if there was a per 48 minute production statistic over rookies, blair would be much better in all categories than evans and therefore win ROY. ”

    At the halfway mark Blair was leading all rookies in WP48. Of course, minutes do matter. If you play less, you have less opportunity to produce. I love Grizzly Blair, but I give Evans the nod.

    Actually, according to the wages of wins at the halfway point Blair had produced as many wins as Evans in half the minutes. So nevermind, Blair for ROY.

  • bushytop
    March 4th, 2010 at 1:24 pm

    I don’t know what game you’re watching. Blair has tremendous upside.

  • VP of Common Sense
    March 4th, 2010 at 2:57 pm

    Wowzas!

    I can’t believe how many people on here are minimalizing Blair’s contributions. The guy is 20 years old and has no ACL’s!

    When Dejuan Blair is averaging 35 min + a game he will be Top 5 in the league in rebounding.

    Can Malik Rose ever say that?

  • People forget Brand was never as good as anyone thought he was. There is a reason why only the Clippers and Sixers went after him. He was a solid double-double player, but he was no better than David Lee, and i think in time Blair has the ability to surpass both. One thing people dont talk about with Blair is his ability to dribble (which is way better than average for a PF) and his ability to pass, which is something Oberto was good at and i think Blair will one day catch him.

    And I would argue that the Spurs HAVE run their offense through Blair on several occasions and he has produced well- and i’m not just talking about in the pick and roll. He’s got good post moves. If you look at the original article, he took Garnett (previous Defensive player of the year) to school one-on-one. He did the same against OKC when he went 28/21 or whatever it was. Hes especially good for a rookie. I have no doubt if he was getting 30 minutes a game he would be averaging about 12/10 and 2 assists. Look at what the other rookie bigs are doing and compare.

    I think his ceiling depends on his usage. I think if he ever becomes a major part of the offense 16/12 wouldnt be out of the question. We’ve seen how well his free throws have improved this year. It’s not unreasonable to think he’ll be able to shoot a midrange jumper by this point next year.

    I’m really high on this kid. And how can you not be with that smile?

  • deCarl Bloberto

  • deFabio AirBlair

  • VP of Common Sense
    March 4th, 2010 at 6:14 pm

    Fabjuan Oblairto

  • Oberto was always there at the right time to take a charge. When’s the last time Blair took a charge. Oberto also had a higher IQ and good hands. But then again Oberto is 45 and Blair is still a baby

  • @Mason

    BLAIR has tried to take charges. But either his feet aren’t set right or the Refs don’t give it to him because he is a rookie.

  • I agreed, Blair is hit with many “rookie” foul calls. Just crap. In fact, more crap is that Duncan does not get “benefit of doubt” calls, as he has earned them! I guess it is part of being a Spur.

  • I don’t quite understand all the hate on Elton Brand. He was a 20/10 machine before he blew out his knees several years back. In fact, this was the primary reason no one really wanted him when he came into free agency 2 years ago. With that said, I see a great deal of similarities between Blair and Brand. Both are undersized, wide bodied, long armed power forwards who are great at creating contact to get rebounds and points. Both are physical bangers who create space with their bodies to get close shots.

    With Blair’s knack for finding the ball, his basketball sense, his sense of spacing, and his vice grip hands I think he has a pretty high ceiling. As someone noted, his free throw shooting has VASTLY improved since the beginning of the season thanks to Chip Engelland. With this kind of improvement in only 6 months, you can begin to see what he might be able to do in a few years. This kid could be good. My heavens, if Blair develops to where he is “only” as good as Brand, that would be unbelieveable.

  • @ Mason - But then again Oberto is 45 and Blair is still a baby. LMAO.

    Pop struggles with unknowns. Whether it’s going against a team without their best player. Or playing rookies :-) Blair will get better with age, but once Pop can treat him as a known quantity he will not be as free to make mistakes and his minutes will always be held in check. It’s just the way Pop coaches. I think Blair is an incredible basketball mind and the Spurs have already benefited from his play. I see more Magic in Blair than Bark.

  • “DeJuan is practically Argentinean.” Haha. That was funny.

  • I just hope POP doesn’t put him on ice come playoff time. Like he did George Hill last year.

  • Apparently Finley is gonna be a Celtic now.

    For shame!

  • Blairgentine

  • First off - woot for intelligent conversation regarding Blair. Everyone makes some great points.

    “Oberto also had a higher IQ and good hands.” Blair has similarly good hands. Stronger than Fabs, but not quite as agile, from what I’ve seen. Its a wash right now, but Blair may pass Oberto in that regard. As for the higher IQ, Oberto has been playing professional ball for what? 15 years? He has such an amazing knack for finding soft spots in defense in the paint. Blair could get there, too, as ball smart as he is. But Oberto was at least 3″ taller than Blair. Blair gets swallowed up by bigger players when he has the ball - I’ve seen this a lot. If he doesn’t have the ball in his hands and he’s going for it, surround him with 7-footers and he’ll still get the ball. But put the ball in his hands and surround him by 6’10″ guys, and he doesn’t really have the knack for moving the ball out of there yet. That should HOPEFULLY improve as he learns to recognize double-teams before they come.

    The Elton Brand comparisons might not be far off, but don’t forget what Brand really showed himself to be - A player that can produce when given minutes, but it is probably better for the team if you don’t need him to produce for 40 minutes a game. The controlled approach to Dejuan’s minutes (especially when you can play him with Manu) is exactly where he needs to be right now.

    Blair absolutely has an argument for ROY right now, too. It isn’t a winning argument, because of the minutes, but it is a good argument. WP48, APM and even PER he shows very high marks compared to other rookies. Put him in the discussion, but in the end, because Evans plays more minutes, he’s going to be perceived as more valuable by the voters.

    But is his ceiling much higher than his current level of play? I say PROBABLY not. Projections are weird things, but they can be made. I can say I think his ceiling is closer to Rose than Barkley, and you can say its too young to know. Of course its too young to know, but that doesn’t mean its too young to project. And projections have a margin of error. But my projection still says he’s a slightly better Malik. The undersized workhorse thing only gets you so far in today’s NBA.

  • Hey, this feels like a really big game tonight. It’s the beginning of a tough stretch that will decide whether we make the playoffs and show whether we really have any business being there even if we do. So my question is, where’s the preview?

  • “But is his ceiling much higher than his current level of play? I say PROBABLY not.”

    I say it PROBABLY is. I put his conceivable upside potential much more in the “Boozer” category, as an under-sized PF that can become dominate in games (and let’s face it, Blair has great hands, strength & bulk, a nice soft shooting touch, pretty decent hops, and adequate to above-average quickness for a PF - and then there’s the intangibles, which I think are large, all at the age of 20).

    Also, without being privy to all the coaches and “experts” that continually analyze & assess his physical skills & intangibles, I think Blair MAY have the ability to add (after he develops a more consistent interior game at both ends, hopefully within the next couple of years) a solid perimeter & face-up game (working on his ball handling, his moves out of the pivot, a mid-range jumper, and perhaps even developing a 3-pt. shot remains a possibility). It depends on Blair’s work ethic, what he wants out of his game, and what his coaches are willing to help him develop.

    Thus, I believe there’s still an outside chance he could still become closer to a Charles Barkley type, assuming his knees are OK (they don’t seem to be bothering him now, so who’s to say!). Also, Blair seems to be the type of guy that won’t settle for a one or two dimensional game. I think he wants to expand his repertoire of skills as much as possible to become a “complete” player, one that has the ability to “dominate” games at the power forward spot. I think yours, and some of the other comments, indicate that you do not yet see the true “diamond in the rough” we may have found in this young talent.

    And there’s one important thing appears unequivocally obvious: Blair has one of the most positive, aggressive, enthusiastic, psychologically balanced, confident, & aggressive ATTITUDES that I’ve ever seen in a 20 year old professional athlete. This should take him a long ways, in my book. We’ll see.

  • I have been keeping an eye on this site and I have been astonished at all of you guys who are menstruating and drinking the Pop kool aid while the Spurs slip into total oblivion. Because of this, the Spurs are done.

    Not a word from the mainstream media in San Antonio. As the only game in town, I wonder if Buck Harvey is going home everday by 10am, because he sure does not seem to be reporting on the Spurs. I am beginning to think that he is a ghost writer for the Express News.

    The season is almost 3/4 complete and Pop has still not managed personnel and set rotations. Mind you, there are about 25 games left in the season — So much court time for Keith Bogus and Matt “Forrest Gump” Bonner - Are you kidding me? If these guys are going to be on your team at all, they should be getting no more then 10 minutes per game. On the names, that Matt Gump decides that he wants to hit some shots, maybe extend him to 15 minutes per games - but no more!

    The verdict was already reached last year for all to see and that is; the Spurs could no longer ride Duncan, Parker and Gino to a Championship Cup. As such, it was not that the Spurs would have to get younger and more athletic to compete. So why the half hearted effort to bring in new guys, but never play them? If Pop felt that all of the guys recently released could not play for him, then why did they make the roster taking a valuable roster spot from some of the young kids and/or vets who could help? Hairston, Haislip, Mahimi, and Rat could have helped.

    The decision to release Finley was a good one, but why did Pop wait the whole year to do it? Finley should have never really made the opening day roster - his spot and minutes could have been allocated to Hairston!

    Lets face it guys, because of Pop, the Spurs will miss the playoffs and be a lottery team this year. If you guys continue to hold your peace, you will be equally responsible for the demise of the Spurs. Currently, the have slipped to the 3rd best team in Texas.

  • Different people often have different projections, and no decent projection exists without good reasons to back it up. You reasons are good reasons to back up your projection. I have only two quibbles with them.

    1) Expansion of his game - No interior-style big man in my memory developed a 3-pt game after getting into the league. Very few interior-style big men developed a dribble game after getting into the league. Mid-range jumpers and more low-post moves are entirely possible for Blair. With a continued work ethic and dedicated development, he could also turn into a fantastic fast-break big man. If you want to look at the peak possibilities of his ceiling in that respect, Elton Brand or even Amare Stoudamire are valid comparisons. But those require a lot of growth and development that are, at best, “uncommon” or even “rare” for interior-style big men to develop after getting to the NBA.

    2) He is, without a doubt, undersized for his position. This is an absolutely HUGE hurdle for him to overcome. Magic and Barkley are the closest to his physical type that were able to overcome that in interior play. Yes, there is something innate and absolutely lovable about his ability to get rebounds while being undersized for his position. That ability cannot be denied, but it also cannot be coached or taught. It is in his very being to find that ball. But it isn’t really in him, today at least, to overcome that height when he has a dedicated defender on him and he is trying to score.

    Is it within the realm of possibility that he can overcome that? Absolutely. Do I want to see him overcome it? You bet ya.

    Is it likely? History says no. Magic and Barkley were Hall of Fame talents and they had it in them from the start of their careers. And they played in a completely different era of basketball with rule changes and the like.

    I’m hoping you are right, and I can’t tell you that you are wrong. But we do have different projections for him, and that’s ok.

  • did yall hear abt hasheem thabeet being sent to the d league. Now I bet thabeets team wishes they never passed on blair…he is going to be stellar in the future once duncan leaves. The lineup will be: C splitter PF blair SF jefferson/hairston (assuming jefferson gets signed for a smaller contract b/c he is just not traded) SG g. Hill PG tony p. Splitter, blair and hill will all be in their prime and tony will bring the veteran experience they will miss from duncan and others. The jefferson trade salary dump will bring one veteran and a role player similar to mason. I see a very bright future for our team. We will also find another manuu late in the second round. Awesome!!!

  • Zainn, wow.

    Its one thing to take part in projection talk about a player. It is something else entirely to look THAT far into the future and have any expectation of knowing what a line-up will look like.

  • Well, i doubt rc buford is that stupid to dump those players listed above and i am just going through what i probably gonna happen. jefferson will get traded for his huge expiring contract and our future is still bright. it’ll take us a couple of years to get back to the conference finals, but i see a bright future for this team!

  • OneWing
    March 5th, 2010 at 5:48 pm

    I appreciate your well-thought-out comments.

    I’ll just rattle off a few bullet points in response.

    - I think Boozer is the best high ceiling comparison for Blair in the next 4-5 years. They have similar skill sets (except Blair is obviously “raw” & 8 years younger), and both are under-sized (Boozer is listed at 6’9″, but he’s lucky if he’s 6’8″).

    - You say: “No interior-style big man in my memory developed a 3-pt game after getting into the league.”

    I’m sure there are many. In fact Barkley did not have even a serviceable 3 pt. shot when he first came into the league (shot 1-6 his first year; 17-75 his 2nd year; never a “good” 3 pt. shooter, but managed to jack up 219 three’s for the Sun’s at age 29, cracking 30% for the first time).

    - You say: “He is, without a doubt, undersized for his position. This is an absolutely HUGE hurdle for him to overcome. Magic and Barkley are the closest to his physical type that were able to overcome that in interior play.”

    It is a VERY difficult thing to overcome. I think he has it in him to do it. It will take some time to get really good at it. Just remember, he’s only 20 years old, and had no need to learn this skill in college. Also, you’re leaving out other “short” forwards that had considerable success in the post: Adrian Dantley, Larry Johnson, to name a couple off the top of my head. Granted, it is uncommon, but I think Blair is very special.

    So, just some points to ponder. Hell, I hope I’m right too!

    You say: “Is it likely? History says no. Magic and Barkley were Hall of Fame talents and they had it in them from the start of their careers.”

    Actually, Barkley was not very good at this early in his career, plus his team at the time encouraged him to get a lot of his points in transition. He wasn’t employed a lot in the half-court set, down on the low post. Magic had a totally different game, and he actually is 6’9″, about 3″ taller than both Blair & Barkley. Plus, well, Magic is Magic!

  • I was at the NO game on Friday and noted specifically to my brother how well Manu and Blair have been working together. That ExpressNews article has it exactly right, DJ has exceptional hands catching those little zip passes on the inside. For him it is a natural talent that would have made him a great tight end in football (not having knee ligaments aside).

  • Jim

    I like your talking points on the subject. However, I will disagree and say that Barkley WAS better at this point in his career. He was much more athletic with a better jumper and displayed his athletic skill set more frequently than Blair ever could. Barkley’s rookie #’s were 14 and 8 at 28 mpg. He then averaged ~23 and 12 for the rest of his career basically. Could Blair get get those with 28mpg with is rookie season? Maybe he could. Could Blair develop a solid mid-range game? Yes, I hope he does. Their games are vastly different. I remember Barkley jumping over people and Blair going around and under them.

  • Colin
    March 7th, 2010 at 10:16 am

    Number one, Barkley was in college at Blair’s age.

    Number two, Barkley was never a great shooter, especially early in his career.

    Number three, Barkley had a different role than Blair with his college team (more up tempo), putting more of his athleticism on display.

    This was as much to do with the make-up of their respective teams as it was to their individual skill-sets. Barkley was “lighter at the same age” (in fact, Barkley was actually small compared to Blair at age 20), had a bit more hops, a bit faster, & had more of his “small ball” skills developed. That said, Blair is much quicker than people give him credit for because he’s not asked to use it much. And athletic? Again, Blair is underrated. If you saw his “showmanship” dunk, where he “threw” the rock to himself off the backboard for the one-handed slam during the “rookie” all-star game, then you saw just a glimpse of what he’s hiding. The fact is, Barkley was groomed as a “small” player (even though he was pretty big & strong), and Blair was groomed as a “big” player (even though he’s not that big & tall). Until Blair’s “small ball” skills are properly developed we are short-selling Blair’s all-around potential. Finally, the Barkley comparison has only an outside chance of ever becoming close. Hell, Barkley’s a hall-of-famer! I’m just saying I don’t think one can completely “rule it out” at this “early” stage. There are too many unknown variables. And as I said, I think it’s “more likely” that the Carlos Boozer comparison could become a great deal more recognizable in the coming 4-5 years.

  • …….. also, the 76′ers team was clearly in decline when Barkley joined the team. Dr. J was about to retire. And Barkley didn’t have Tim Duncan to share minutes with. So, Barkley’s “numbers” are inherently going to be better early on because he was on a sub-par team.

    …… also, Blair - Barkley number comparison per 36 minutes, rookie year:

    Pts. % TReb. OReb. Blks. Stls.

    Blair 15.5 56 12.3 4.6 1.1 1.3

    Barkley 17.6 55 10.8 4.1 1.2 1.5

    Pretty respectable if you ask me.

  • Jim

    Points taken. I never said that Barkley was a great outside shooter, he just took and made more mid-range shots than Blair does. Nor did I say that Blair isn’t athletic, hell THIS IS THE NBA, they all are! I only said that Barkley was MORE athletic than Blair is at this point and probably will ever be. I did see Blair’s dunk in that game. He’s been doing that in pick up games since he was 16 probably. With that said, there was no one to meet him at the rim and they all cleared the path for him to do it.

    He didn’t necessarily jump over Mutombo as Barkley does in this clip (albeit this was ’92)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPnbqWusWVg&feature=related

    —I can’t see Blair throwing ‘em down like this with regularity as Barkley did in his career.
    -I get your points and I understand where you’re coming from. I don’t think Barkley was “groomed” as a small player. Due to his team’s disposition, I think his coaches let him freelance and do what he did best…..attack, attack, attack! He was a power forward listed as 6’6″ who re-defined the position and arguably played bigger than Blair does at this point.
    -I do think the Boozer comparison is more realistic. Blair will need to work on his post-up game, left handed finish, and 15-18 ft jumper to make it comparable.
    -Hopefully in the next 4-5 yrs, the only player we can compare Blair to is……..Blair.

  • Collin,

    Points taken. Good discussion. We’ll have to agree to disagree about the finer points. But I think we both aren’t far off with the central conclusion I made:

    “Finally, the Barkley comparison has only an outside chance of ever becoming close.”

    Which probably means less than 10% (perhaps you’d put it at 1-2%!).

  • [...] Strikes no. 45 and 82: DeJuan Blair as Oberto [...]

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