If someone asks what effect trading for Richard Jefferson and drafting DeJuan Blair has on a fanbase, the answer is that people start seeing Rasheed Wallace more often than the sasquatch.  Even if the rumors are true, I’m sure it’s nothing more than Timmeh and Sheed getting in a little fishing.

We’re all a little giddy. Why not pour a little more kerosene on the fire?

Nando De Colo is a solid player, and one that could contribute to the team down the road. But I want to turn our attention to Jack McClinton, a stud shooter that could get lost in the self-congratulatory frenzy.

Maybe the Spurs do moneyball. If Blair had not slid to 37, R.C. Buford has indicated the Spurs would have selected McClinton with that pick. Buford made a striking assertion: Jack McClinton was the best shooter in the draft.  The numbers bear this out. Luke Winn writes:

A league scouting director whom I trust — partly because he insisted that UCLA’s Luc Richard Mbah a Moute was the biggest second-round sleeper last year, even though this scout’s team didn’t get him — told me last week to watch out for Miami’s Jack McClinton. He’s an undersized shooting guard (just under 6-1 in shoes), but there are teams that believe he can become an instant-offense guy off the bench, somewhat like Eddie House has provided for the Celtics.

I used Synergy’s data to look at how complete a scorer McClinton was last season compared to other shooting/combo guards in the draft, breaking down the chart into five categories: PPP on guarded catch-and-shoot situations, PPP on unguarded catch-and-shoot situations, shots off the dribble, shots taken off screens and shots in one-on-one situations.

There’s some evidence here that McClinton is a legit prospect, if he can overcome his lack of height. He’s by far the best catch-and-shoot prospect in unguarded situations, at 1.80 PPP. On a roster with a star who consistently draws help on drives, McClinton could play a valuable role by merely spreading out defenses and knocking down wide-open threes. He’s no slouch in guarded catch-and-shoot situations, either, ranking fourth in that group at 1.07 PPP. (The best contested shooter is North Carolina’s Wayne Ellington, at 1.31 PPP, and that fact may help him get a first-round contract.)

What sets McClinton apart from the rest of this group is his ability to efficiently create his own shot, as he’s the only player above 1.00 PPP in shots taken off the dribble or in one-on-one situations — meaning defenses will have to respect his driving ability on the perimeter.

You can find a chart here that suggests Jack McClinton is a better shooter than Stephen Curry and James Harden.

But what intrigues me more about McClinton is the endorsement he got from Popovich, sans Buford. In his post-draft press conference, Buford said the Spurs fell in love with McClinton not just because he could shoot, but because he was the best defender they worked out.

Maybe that’s post-draft hyperbole. But let’s remember something: Popovich has a tremendous eye for point guards (in this case, a “specialty” guard). His eyes trusted a teenage Tony Parker, saw something of a scam in Beno Udrih, and identified an unheralded combo guard from IUPUI as a Day 1 contributor.  The Spurs don’t help anyone by kidding themselves about McClinton’s ability to defend. If after two workouts they saw him as a lockdown defender, I’ll bet they’re correct.

Assuming McClinton makes the team, the Spurs should have great depth and diversity in their backcourt. It will be difficult to find minutes for everybody, but a foursome of Parker-Hill-Mason-Ginobili looks great, especially if Michael Finley and Jack McClinton have their back. If Finley doesn’t pick up his deal, Malik Hairston or a player like Austin Nichols can occupy the 6th guard spot.  The backcourt looks solid. In fact, it projects out as one of the best in the league.

The Spurs know what kind of players compliment their system and core. After the 2008 Finals, Popovich and crew decided they needed to move beyond offensively-challenged guards. Watching Eddie House play effectively against the Lakers sparked an interest amongst the Spurs brass. They began their search for an instant offense specialty guard, and it ran through Jannero Pargo, Salim Stoudamire, Blake Ahearn and DeMarcus Nelson. Pargo took another contract, Stoudamire suffered injury, Ahearn didn’t pan out, and Nelson was snatched from Austin by the Bulls. If McClinton shows up as a bulldog defender and knocks down shots, he’ll stick. The Spurs will have their Eddie House. We’ll know soon enough.

But a bad MRI has been going around, and Blair — who was considered a potential lottery pick this morning — fell all the way out of the first round. And he kept falling. Past Portland for a third time, past Washington, past Memphis, past Detroit … all the way to the Spurs at No. 37. It’s the vogue thing to say Blair will now proceed to destroy the NBA. But it’s also the accurate thing to say. Blair will now proceed to destroy the NBA.

I’ll have more tomorrow afternoon.  Graydon’s take should be ready for your morning coffee.

• The Spurs are sad to see their veteran’s go, Bruce Bowen especially.
• Richard Jefferson is the beginning of the offseason. Buford gives a clear indication that the Spurs are willing to pay tax and continue to be aggressive in the draft, during free agency and through summer league. He nearly says, “Damn the torpedoes, we’re going to do what we have to to get better.”
• Buford did a good job of gently reminding the press corp that the ownership group is not cheap. Far from it, actually.
• Buford mentions the expectations of player’s from past drafts contributing to the team. Undoubtedly, he is hoping the best for Marcus Williams and Malik Hairston. But he also mentions those “coming back from Europe.” James Gist, anyone? Surely not Tiago Splitter? The Spurs did just create a hole in their frontcourt. But Splitter? Hmm.
• It’s clear that the Spurs don’t have any concerns about Jefferson troubling the locker room. Jefferson is someone whom Pop “knows well.”
• Richard Jefferson’s durability was attractive to the team, as was his ability to score. Duh and duh, but it’s worth noting.
• “[Jefferson's] age helps us transition our team.”
• “We had created some advantages through the contracts we had in place, and through the free agency of 2010…” That’s just a humble way of saying we’ve done an unbelievably good job of managing our cap.
• “Manu says he’ll be healthy and ready to play. I like that.” With those words, Buford just gave us his version of “Because he’s Manu Ginobili.” Some things are much less complicated than we make them.
• “Just as this financial environment has created opportunities in this trade, I think there could be similar opportunities in the draft.”  Those are the words of a man who wants to trade up.
• Okay, was it just me or was there some swagger in that video. Look out league.

I’m excited.

Chad Ford is reporting that the Spurs and Bucks have agreed to a deal that would send Fabricio Oberto, Kurt Thomas and Bruce Bowen to Milwaukee for Richard Jefferson. This is a no brainer for the Spurs, and it puts them right back in the championship hunt. Richard Jefferson is a monster upgrade.

Jefferson’s skill set couldn’t be a better match for San Antonio. He can score going to the hoop, is a capable defender, and shoots nearly .400 from the arc. His 19 ppg give San Antonio the 4th scorer they’ve needed for several seasons. Jefferson averaged a mere 2 TO per game last season as Milwaukee’s best player. It’s hard to imagine a better trade scenario. The Spurs just struck oil.

Relative to his salary, Richard Jefferson may under produce. His career PER is 16.7. That’s a little low for a player owed 14 and 15 million the next two seasons. But he’s only 29. And his production is vastly superior to anything the Spurs have had on the wing since Sean Elliott.

My best guess is that the Bucks will buy out Bruce Bowen and we’ll see him return to San Antonio prior to training camp. If that happens, this trade goes from a homerun to a grand slam. The only downside is that the move leaves the Spurs thin upfront, but one suspects they have a back up plan in the works to replace Kurt Thomas. Oberto’s best play is two seasons behind him, and the Spurs actually win by freeing up his roster spot. By adding Jefferson, the Spurs have converted Roger Mason Jr. into a potent 5th option or valuable trade chip. The ripple effects go from the center to shore, and I’m hard pressed to find a single negative in this move.

Aside from landing Jefferson, the other story here is that the Spurs have moved away from their 2010 cap strategy. Jefferson’s salary eats up everything they had on reserve for a big name free agent run. But Jefferson is probably as good as any player they were likely to land next summer, so in that sense they’ve simply accelerated their rebuild with a player that can help them within Tim Duncan’s window.  They’re not waiting on 2010 by sitting out 2009. This also means there is no reason for the team to play cautious with their checkbook. With their 2010 plan on the scrapheap, the team could theoretically make another trade for a player whose salary would push them against the taxline.

As I write this, my head keeps going back to something that might be missed in all this. San Antonio is good to its fans. Here is a team that is committed to winning. After being bounced in the first round, they could have faded from view just as everyone expected them to. But instead, they got off the mat and started swinging. They’re a small market team with a relatively poor ownership group in a bad economy. And they just added a big contract to their books when 1/2 the league is trying to shed cap. Take note.

Most of you have probably heard the name Jonas Jerebko by now. He’s moving up the draft board, and there is no doubt the Spurs have a strong opinion about his game.  Jerebko played last season with Angelico Biella, where he was a teammate of James Gist. The Spurs, one would assume, have scouted the Swedish small forward as thoroughly as any team in the Association. He’s currently mocked late first/early second.

Writing about his recent performance in Treviso, Jonathan Givony says:

[Jerebko] was able to make his presence felt immediately, looking impressive in both the morning drills and the actual game–giving the NBA people a very good feel for what he brings to the table. Jerebko shot the ball well throughout the day, only missing one of his seven shots in the game, while picking up 5 steals, 4 rebounds and 2 assists in 28 minutes. He also showed something of a back to the basket game, using his superior size to get off a pretty and very old-school sky-hook shot in the lane. He played very physical man to man defense on the perimeter, while always looking to make the proper rotation on team defense. He also showed plenty of hustle, going the length of the floor with reckless abandon at one point to come up with a loose ball, and using his length to alter plenty of shots around the paint as well, not giving his matchup anything easy. Considering the small sample size, there wasn’t a whole lot more Jerebko could have done. After seeing him a number of times in person over the past year and a half, it’s safe to say that there aren’t many players like him in this draft.

A little over 48 hours out, my optimism about this “weak draft” continues to grow. Not because I disagree that the draft is under-par in terms of talent. That assessment seems right to me. I’m encouraged by how nicely the draft sets up for San Antonio.  The underwhelming amount of talent and poor economy have created a climate that could favor San Antonio on draft night.  The Spurs will have legitimate opportunities to move into the first round, and the players available to them have skills sets that are in demand in San Antonio. Jerebko is one such player. If Buford wanted, he could try a hand at going all Presti/Pritchard on this draft.  Jerebko may not be a homerun pick, but he’ll put a man on base.

Let me approach this from another angle. Even if the Spurs don’t move up, someone like Jerebko could fall into their lap.  RealGM has posted a Spurs draft breakdown, and it includes this smart observation:

Who’s Gone Number 37th Recently?

The forecast actually doesn’t look too grim with the 37th overall pick. The Spurs lack a first-rounder, but they do have a solid history mining gems out of the second round. Someone similar to Mbah a Moute or Turiaf would be ideal for San Antonio. 2008 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Milwaukee 2007 Josh McRoberts, Portland 2006 Bobby Jones, Minnesota (traded to Philadelphia) 2005 Ronny Turiaf, Los Angeles 2004 Royal Ivey, Atlanta

It’s easy to imagine a name like Jonas Jerebko or Victor Claver or Danny Green assuming a spot on that list.   In terms of the 37th pick, the Spurs could get lucky.

The Painted Area is running a piece on Jerebko this morning. I loved this paragraph of their breakdown:

Another aspect that makes him enticing to NBA front offices is his defensive acumen. Primarily matched up with former Xavier standout David Hawkins in the semi-final series vs. AJ Milano. Did a very commendable job guarding the 6-3 Hawkins on the perimeter. Impressed with his lateral quickness on the defensive end, consistently changed direction pretty well. Never really got burned by the quicker Hawkins.

So the word on Jerebko is that he is a little bit of an everyman, with great size for small forward, the defensive chops to stick with perimeter players, and an emerging three point shot.

I’ll let you Google for on court highlights. The video below was shot by Givony and gives you a pretty good sense of Jerebko’s professionalism and demeanor. As an aside, Biella is known for its ability to develop players. This is one reason among many that the Spurs have struck up a friendship with the club.  Givony and Jerebko talk a little about his development since joining the team.  I’m curious to see if the Spurs send any more late picks to Biella, or if the Gist situation was a one year arrangement.

The Austin Toros invite local basketball fans to join the team as they host a 2009 NBA Draft party on Thursday, June 25th. The party will be held from 5:30 to 8:30pm at Cuatros, located at 1004 24th St. in Austin.

Da Bull, the Capital City Dance Team and members of the Toros staff will be on hand to provide fans with the opportunity to win tickets for the upcoming NBA D-League season and to future San Antonio Spurs games. Cuatros will offer drink specials and guests will also have a chance to win authentic Toros jerseys and other team merchandise.

This kind of party makes sense on a lot of levels. The most obvious is the fact that the Spurs’ draft will directly effect the Toros.

This year’s trade speculation rests against the backdrop of needed change, with almost all those who follow the Spurs calling for or expecting overhaul this offseason. Don Harris recently quoted Spurs color analyst and family member Sean Elliott saying, “…I would fully expect us to have a revamped team next season.” His expectation seems universal.

A few of our readers have asked, given the team’s limited assets, whether Tiago Splitter’s rights could help a trade proposal go through. If Splitter is not tied to the rookie scale, as we’ve previously argued, one would think his rights would hold some value, certainly more than we assumed a year ago.

Tiago Splitter projects as an NBA starter, or at least a quality rotation big. He’s only 24 years old, but has the professional experience of a seasoned vet. And in this topsy-turvy economy, one wonders if his buyout situation is not actually attractive to teams.  Put differently, if you’re a team that is not enamored with adding a rookie to your 2009-10 payroll, acquiring the rights to a talented big who requires zero immediate payment (and won’t until at least next summer) is something of a win-win. You avoid the cap hit, but still get to add a valuable player to your pipeline. Looking at the bigs available in this draft, Splitter would probably rank with Jordan Hill and DeJuan Blair, not far behind Hasheem Thabeet.  Some might rank him ahead of the other three.

If this is the case, why would the Spurs want to give him up?  If he came to the team next season, he’s a lock for a productive 25 mpg.

The simple answer is that he provides an asset the team currently lacks. He’s the young prospect that could put a cap relief package over the top. And again, that’s with the added luxury of staying off the books until at least 2010.

The Spurs recent dalliance with Yiannis Bouroussis is an indicator that shoring up their front line is an immediate priority, one that Tim Duncan cannot afford for them to sit on for another year.  I expect the team to target another big with their MLE (Charlie Villanueva?). Then there is the possibility of Ian Mahinmi bouncing back from injury and contributing to the rotation. And most of us expect that if Chris Bosh is available next summer, the Spurs will use their cap space to make a run at him, however unlikely the odds.  Add all that up. Where does Tiago Splitter fit into the puzzle?

But that’s on the  optimistic view. The pessimist is happy to respond by saying the Spurs could strike out in free agency, Mahinmi could flop, and the team could completely miss their 2010 free agent target. If some combination of those things were to occur, Splitter is a mighty nice insurance policy.

Obviously, he’s the sort of asset one doesn’t just give away. There is no question he benefits the team a year from now. The question, however, is could he benefit the team 4 days from now? And if so, to what degree and how?

So to our readers who’ve asked what value Splitter’s rights hold, my answer is a curiosity struck “dunno.” I’d like to think he could command a pick somewhere between 10 and 20, but I also see the world through shades of silver and black.

In terms of raw talent, the Spurs will have few chances at a better second round selection than the 6’10” combo forward from Spain. If Claver slips to 37, the Spurs will have to think long and hard about passing him up. Whether or not he lasts to 37 is another question entirely, but Claver recently signed a 3 year deal in Spain and would prefer being drafted in the 2nd round to avoid the rookie scale. The Spurs should have an outside shot at him.

The story on Claver is this: he’s an extremely athletic forward with an excellent 3 point shot and the ability to finish above the rim. Until last December, he was a surefire first round pick. That was until he fractured his left leg.  Now teams don’t know what to expect from him, which is compounded with dealing with his buyout in order to secure his services. But the kid is just 21, and all that seems like a risk well worth taking.

Although, he’s listed as a combo forward, I have a hard time imagining him as anything other than a 3. He can score in the post, but he’s more or less a face-up and transition player. Moreover, he lacks the strength to guard the post.

About the time I started these profiles, Gregg Popovich was in Spain visiting his good friend Neven Spahija. In addition to being one of the world’s best coaches and a friend to the Spurs, Spahija is also Claver’s coach. While in Valencia, Popovich conceded that he and his scouts have been impressed with Claver, and it’s fair to say that he is a player they’ve watched closely.

Now of course the unavoidable conclusion to this is not that the Spurs necessarily want to draft Claver.  The Spurs probably have 3 times as many players they’re interested in as picks. But as we approach the draft, he’s a player you should be aware of.  If the Spurs do select him, we can at least take confidence in the fact that they’ve done their due diligence.  And I would still maintain this position even if they move into the first to draft a player like Sam Young, Omri Casspi or Jonas Jerebko. Talent is talent, and sometimes you have to bet on more than one horse in order to win at the races.

A person within the Spurs organization recently told me “we understand that all franchises make some good decisions (Tony Parker), some bad decisions (Jackie Butler) and then need a little luck (Duncan and Ginobili) …” To my mind, drafting a player like Claver constitutes a good decision. But the Spurs will still need that oft-forgotten measure of good luck for the draft to be a success.

You won’t learn much from this YouTube clip, but it’s fun to watch (grainier, longer option here):

• Yiannis Bouroussis’ contract negotiations with Olympiacos have hit a stall. This could be good news for the Spurs. Time will tell. (HT: Bruno)
• Jonathan Givony passes on a report from an observer at the New Jersey workouts (HT: Jordan):

Austin Daye vs. Omri Casspi turned into a real wrestling match. Casspi just manhandled Daye, really threw him around. It was a bit disappointing to see how little Daye was able to compete from a strength perspective—Casspi is a kind of a skinny guy himself. At one point Casspi cut Daye’s lip open–he had to go to hospital for stitches. The Nets should have done a better job of getting someone to call fouls. Casspi was fouling the hell out of Daye. Some of the guys were looking at each other like ‘what are we watching here?

Casspi was impressive, just like he’s been everywhere he’s gone. He plays hard, competes. He hit tough shots. Step-backs, runners. Then he missed some wide open J’s—go figure. He hits the toughest shots, but can’t always make the easiest ones. He looked like he could be a great complementary player in a 5 on 5. Definitely an atypical player for a European.

• Kyle, author of an excellent Wizards blog called Truth About It, responds to the Manu to D.C. talk with a three-way trade suggestion. He sees a deal that would bring Gerald Wallace, Andray Blatche and the 5th pick to San Antonio. I appreciate his effort, but I see a trade that would bring a player three times as injury prone–and owed more money–back to San Antonio.  No thanks.  In terms of trade suggestions, Kyle has done a good job here. But I’m increasingly of the position that trading Ginobili doesn’t make sense.
  
• A 48MoH reader, Mr. O, emailed us new video of Viktor Sanikidze:

• Sanikidze would be an interesting summer league participant. But he hasn’t played against very tough competition. It would be nice to see him against NBA players.
• Vladimir Dasic has withdrawn his name from the draft.
• Omri Casspi has elected to stay in the draft.
• Connecting the dots to Sergey Gladyr. Keep it on the hush.
• Several weeks back, I promised to profile Victor Claver and Nando De Colo as two players that should be on the Spurs’ radar. Those profiles are forthcoming. For now, I want to note that both players will remain in the draft.  That’s a pretty good set up for San Antonio.
• I’m sitting on recently completed interviews with James Gist and Austin Nichols. Look for those late tomorrow or Wednesday morning.

Tim’s Notes:

• Greivis Vasquez gave a good interview. During our talk he repeated the story he had told the Washington Post about Manu Ginobili approaching him with an encouraging word after his workout in San Antonio. In his mind, Ginobili was “just like the whole organization. Humble, professional, no one thinks he is better than anyone else.” Regarding his current training Vasquez said, “I’m working on using my size more on defense. I want to do a better job with that. So I’m learning how to use my body on defense. I’m also doing a lot of stretching to improve quickness and flexibility on defense.”
• Rodrigue Beaubois didn’t say anything striking, but his enthusiasm about playing defense was notable. “When I was younger I didn’t really think about defense. Now it feels so good to stop the other player. I enjoy it.” Now read his words again, but imagine a big smile and an exceedingly cheerful tone.
• Jack McClinton compared his game to Eddie House and Mo Williams. Regarding his workout with San Antonio (he was part of a six man group that included Josh Shipp, Ben Woodside, Courtney Fells, Marcus Thornton, and Robert Vaden) McClinton said that they ask their prospects to shoot more than other teams, expecting each one to make 100 3s prior to leaving the floor. Other than that, they push the guys to play hard in 1 on 1 and 3 on 3 scrimmages.
• Of all the guys I spoke with in Chicago, either Danny Green or Omri Casspi left the deepest impression, and for different reasons. Maybe it’s because he’s been through this process before, but Green appeared more relaxed than most of the players. I wouldn’t say he had a swagger, but he definitely projects an aloof confidence. It’s hard to know how to take him at first. But then in conversation he opposes your expectations by readily admitting to weaknesses in his game. If I had to slap him with a cliched label, I’d say Green was confident but not cocky. He’s auditioned for San Antonio two years running, but said they’ve changed their workout regiment from last year. The 2009 version of their workout included increased attention to measurables: sprint speed, vertical leap, etc… Danny Green sees himself as more of a 2-3 than 3-2, and is hearing the same thing. He’s worked out with Toronto, OKC, Chicago, San Antonio, Detroit and Miami. His San Antonio workout was with Damion James, Alonzo Gee, Wayne Ellington, Greivis Vasquez,  Nick Calathas, whom Green dubbed “a funny little dude.”
• The player I left the Combine wanting to learn more about was Joe Ingles. Intelligent, articulate, comfortable. You could tell he’s played professionally for a few years. Although he said he was a 2, he has the size to play 3 and–so he says–is enough of a ballhandler to play point if his team is in a pinch. I immediately began to imagine him in terms of Brent Barry. As a second round pick, he seems like a safe bet to make someone’s roster. Put differently, if I could draft Chase Budinger at 25 or Joe Ingles at 45, I’m not sure I wouldn’t choose the Aussie in order to free up my first round pick on another player. It’s all about value.
• Austin Daye models himself after Rashard Lewis and talked to me about becoming a player who creates match up problems for opposing teams by stretching the court. My notes on this conversation are chicken scratch, but he did offer up a lucid 2 minute breakdown of the Magic/Cavs series complete with notes on how much opportunity existed in the NBA for players of his skill set. He’s all kinds of skinny, but seems to have it together upstairs. And that 7′ 2.75” wingspan is legit.
• Obviously, Blake Griffin is not on the Spurs’ radar. But Graydon and I both had seperate opportunities to speak with him and were united in our assessment: gracious, good humored, humble. He just smacks off a player you’d want as the face of an organization. Griffin and I sat across from one another for about 90 minutes, typing from behind our monitors. He was busy trying to accomplish something on his Mac, but didn’t show the slightest sign of annoyance at the approach of a journalist or fan. Always a smile and warmly delivered nice to meet you before returning to his work. He couldn’t carry himself better.
• Hasheem Thabeet is quiet. It’s hard to read too much into these things, and it’s hardly fair to transfer one’s personality traits to the basketball court, whether 1:1 or at all. But a few people commented that he was difficult to understand because of his soft-spoken demeanor. “He’s either shy or disinterested” is how one person put it. If I were his agent, I’d coach a little bravado into his interviews.  For a player who does not assert himself on offense–that’s the popular sentiment regarding Thabeet–it couldn’t hurt if he became more assertive in person. Again, the connection between off the court personality and on the court performance is more spurious than sure. Thabeet is a great player, clearly. But you know what they say about perception.
• Josh Heytvelt told me that he had been incredibly frank about past mistakes in his interviews. Although, he didn’t say, I assume he meant his arrest for possessing marijuana and shrooms. It goes without saying that teams spent more time with the players than I did, but from my standpoint it’s a non-issue. He gave every indication of being a guy who had made a dumb mistake, nothing more or less. I suspect most teams see it the same way. Heytvelt interviewed with the Spurs last Wednesday.
• Jeff Pendergraph has enormous, strong hands. He nearly crushed my tiny little paw in his grip. “I’m trying to be as skilled as Tim Duncan and as intense as Kevin Garnett. The biggest thing for me is energy–I try to play with high energy whenever I’m on the court,” Pendergraph said. “Energy” was spoken of as a skill by a lot of players. For the record, Pendergraph had not interviewed or worked out with San Antonio.
• Darren Collison sold himself as an articulate, defense-first point guard. I asked him about moving into a predominately screen and roll league, and he fired back with all sorts of scenarios, and options off those scenarios, that he has in the high screen and roll. Then he started to talk about side screen roll options before I interrupted him with an “I believe you, I believe you.”  DraftExpress says “Collison looks like an awesome back up point guard.” What their eyes see, my ears heard.
• Jerel McNeal interviewed with San Antonio last Thursday.
• Dante Cunningham and I talked about new wave stats, and whether, as a player, he pays much attention to them. He admitted that he was only recently becoming acquainted with the different tools available to evaluate performance, but proved a quick study. For example, I was explaining rebound rate and before I could finish my explanation he said, “Yeah that makes sense. Can’t get a rebound if you’re not on the floor.”  It didn’t me long to figure out that Cunningham was a smart kid. He’s worked out for Miami and San Antonio.
• I’m sitting on a fun anecdote from Chase Budinger, so you’ll have to wait for more than this: he interviewed with the Spurs.
• After years of reading their stuff, I met Jonathan Givony and Chad Ford. Both are great in their own way. I’ve known Jonathan some through email and phone conversations, so meeting him was more about making the acquaintance proper. Givony is encyclopedic. It’s his job, I know, but he really knows his stuff. Some people need to step away from a frenzy in order to collect themselves and others find peace by marching into the maelstrom. He’s part of the latter group. It was fun to watch him in his element. Chad Ford comes across as more of an ambassador, dignified and diplomatic but completely unassuming in a pair of frumpy jeans. I’ve always suspected that Ford was a 24/7 non-stop. Anyone who holds down a full-time teaching position and a full-time gig with ESPN–while dedicating untold hours to Peace Players International–has to be.  His every minute is a fruit-bearing one.
• I would be remiss not to thank Joanna Shapiro for all her assistance. She was terrific. Thanks, Joanna.

Graydon’s Notes:

• My impression of Danny Green was less positive than Tim’s. “Confident but not cocky” seems too kind. I found him to be disinterested, sometimes to the point of being disrespectful (at points he was texting while being interviewed).  But, as Tim noted, he was also unexpectedly frank. He openly admitted his workout with the Spurs went “OK” and said he didn’t have the footspeed to be an elite defender. Mediocre workouts and inability on the defensive end is a common thread that runs throughout many of the prospects, but few addressed them as directly as Green.
• While interviewing Dionte Christmas, I asked him if he had any funny stories from his pre-draft travels. He said nothing particularly funny had happened but did have an interesting story about Sam Young. While measuring his vertical at a private team workout (I forget which one), Young came down on a piece of metal that was jutting out from the measurement pole. The piece of metal became lodged in his bicep. Everyone else began freaking out but supposedly Young hardly reacted at all. Christmas said he saw Young a week or so later at another workout and he was practicing just as hard as anyone.
• I also had a chance to speak with Rodrigue Beaubois, but my interview didn’t go very well. This is not because Beaubois is a bad guy; he seemed perfectly nice. But he does not speak English particularly well and he was my first interviewee of the day. Put those two together and it makes for one unproductive and pretty awkward conversation.
• I spoke with Damion James (who has worked out with the Spurs) but our conversation quickly drifted away from basketball. Damion and I share a mutual friend, Ian Mooney, who used to be Damion’s teammate at the University of Texas. Ian is getting married to a very close friend of mine, Mary Grace McClendon. We spent most of our time talking about the wedding and telling old stories about the couple. On that note, Congratulations to Ian and Mary Grace.
• I’m a UT fan so I have every reason in the world to dislike Blake Griffin. And on television, I always found him to be smug (then again, in my eyes, that OU crimson makes everyone look smug). But when I met him in person, I found him to be professional, humble, and actually, rather witty. I’m writing a piece for Clipperblog about my interview with him, so I’ll save the details for that.
• Speaking of Griffin: After I had finished interviewing Blake, I found myself standing in the corner with him and Hasheem Thabeet. When I shook Thabeet’s hand, it enveloped mine entirely. Have someone hold out two fingers and then shake them. That’s what it looked like. I was so completely caught off guard by his height (before this moment I had only spoken to them while we all were sitting) and grip that I blurted out, “Holy s***, I feel like I’m 12 years old.” We all laughed and, feeling somewhat embarassed, I quickly changed the subject.
• I spoke briefly with Coach Mike Woodson of the Atlanta Hawks. I asked him about Josh Childress’ situation and, if Childress were to sign with the Hawks again, would they be willing to trade him. Bearing a tremendously large grin, Woodson said, “All options are open.” Translation: If Childress returns to the NBA, he will most likely not be suiting up for Atlanta.
• As Tim said, Austin Daye comes across as bright. He is acutely aware of his build (or lack thereof) and seems focused on getting stronger. He also said that, given his current size, his “process is slower than some.” He recognizes that he might not be as immediately productive as players with an NBA-ready body. But of all the players I met, I felt he had one of the more fully developed conceptions of his own game.
• While in a sandwich shop across the street, I overheard a few players (I recognized them but I couldn’t remember their names) joking about how they couldn’t imagine “Hasheem up in da club.” Fair enough. I too cannot imagine what Hasheem Thabeet would be like while at a club, although the word awkward does come to mind.

While I don’t think the Spurs have any interest in trading Manu Ginobili, I think they’ll receive more calls about his availability than ever before. This might seem counter-intuitive given his recent injuries, but if you’re an opposing GM you know:

• the Spurs need to reload, and their assets are limited
• if healthy, Manu Ginobili can lead a team to glory
• he is only due 11 million next season
• his contract is expiring, so the risk is minimal
• even if he doesn’t return to form, his bird rights and a scaled back contract offer give any team an insanely good 6th man going forward

So, in other words, Manu Ginobili is an attractive expiring contract and I expect plenty of rumors this offseason. Sam Amico of Pro Basketball News reports one rumor this way:

One thing that’s not in doubt: The Wizards are actively dangling the fifth pick for a starting veteran. They are said to have contacted San Antonio to find out about the availability of Manu Ginobili, but that rumor was quickly shot down by both sides. The Wizards may also try to make a run at unrestricted free agent forward Shawn Marion (Toronto) or guard Ben Gordon (Chicago).

Brace yourself, because we’ll hear more of the same before the summer is done.

Nota Bena: Washington’s motivation in shopping the 5th pick has everything to do with their cap situation. They don’t want to take on guaranteed salary, which, according to the rookie scale,  is about 2.7 million if they keep their current selection. Their projected cap number for next season is in the mid 70s, which means that, depending on where the tax line comes down, they’ll have to shed salary in order to sign anyone this offseason.  Honestly, they probably need to shed 6 million in cap and not take on a dime in order to avoid taxes. That’s a hard row to hoe. Why do you care?  Because the Spurs would need to take back at least the money due Manu, but Washington would want to include more filler.  Any player(s) the Spurs receive will compromise their 2010 cap integrity. So short of a base offer that includes Caron Butler and the 5th pick, I don’t see a Wizards  trade offer that makes sense for San Antonio. And if you’re the Wizards, is the cap relief and tax savings worth that much? This is merely a rumor, and not a very good one at that.

At this point, you should be laughing. Doesn’t every team want a player like that? And of course it would really help if said player were Hedo Turkoglu long.  But while it’s not an easy project, it’s not an impossible one either.

It’s easy to see that combination of skills and toss your arms to the sky in a hopeless exhale.  When players like that come along, teams lock them up with big contracts. The sort of contracts the Spurs can’t afford apart from landing a cap crushing salary dump. But don’t despair.

It’s not inconceivable that the Spurs simply hit reset on their small forward situation. They can do this by trading Bruce Bowen’s semi-expiring deal (or waiving it) and letting Ime Udoka walk.  That would leave only Mike Finley as a SF reserve, assuming he opts in for the final season of his contract.

As I’ve thought about the Spurs wing situation, I’ve become increasingly hopeful. Why? Well, the Spurs do not have to arrive at their final destination overnight, they just have to start moving in that direction. If they can find one player this offseason who improves their wing rotation, then they’ve gone a long way. He doesn’t have to be a perfect composite of all the things listed above, but he needs to bring a couple of those characteristics. Adding depth behind such a player would then become a high priority, but the Spurs can show patience in that process.  This is the first reason not to worry.

The second reason is that the Spurs should have plenty of options this offseason—the summer is setting up nicely for San Antonio. I would be amazed if the Spurs went into next fall without having made at least one significant move toward small forward recovery. And I suspect they’ll have taken two large steps on that front, one through trade or free agency and the other through the draft. Let me explain.

The Spurs are walking into an offseason that presents a perfect storm of possibility. Think about it. The price on free agents is coming down due to a hard economy and the ever present class of 2010 looming large in the background. Teams won’t want to spend.  And some of those same teams will want to rid themselves of overpaid but otherwise useful players. This combination puts the Spurs in a good spot–they’ll have opportunities to improve through the trade market or in free agency, if they want.

I’m not going to pretend to know which direction the Spurs will choose, whether they’ll make a bold move or cleverly refine the edges. Personally, I like some of the oft-discussed bold move scenarios, and others not so much.  The same is true of more subtle refinements. I’m stating the obvious, but it depends on who we are talking about and how much they cost.

But I came away from the Combine with a sense of optimism about the offseason ahead.  The Spurs should be able to pull a decent Austin-bound prospect out of this draft. If they move into the first round, as recent rumors suggest, they could land a player who gets a shot at meaningful minutes next season.

So, I’m not going to include a list of players in this post. I’ll let you do that in the comments, and for good reason. Rather than publish the laundry list–one that ranges from Vince Carter to Tyler Smith, and stops at all points in between–I’ll let you talk it through. How do you think the Spurs should fix their small forward situation? Your conversation will demonstrate my point: they have plenty of opportunities to improve themselves at wing. There is reason for optimism.

As soon as I mentioned that 48MoH covered the Spurs, he kept up his nonchalant thing, but with a little dry wit, “Oh good. Then you can tell them to draft me.”

Smith began playing basketball at age 6–he and his younger brother discovered the game at his grandmother’s house– “old wooden backboard and all,” as he put it.  Once he started playing, he never stopped. He’s dreamt about playing in the NBA for a long time, for as long as he can remember playing.

I asked him about his workout for the Spurs, a workout he says went well.

Some teams, he tells me, do things their way.  Smith has worked out for several teams, including the Thunder. What Smith told me about his Thunder work out runs in concert with stories from other players. Namely, the first thing that happens in Oklahoma City  is a “2 or 3 hour battery of medical exams–everything you can imagine, they test it.”  The Spurs are another team that leave a unique impression.

“It’s just like people tell you it’s going to be. It’s a tough work out, but they’re really professional. You can tell right away that it’s a classy place. Very clean. Everything is in order. They make you feel respected. It’s a different environment.” Smith left San Antonio with a sense that the team is committed to winning, and developing winners.

The soft-spoken kid from Tennessee was observing and evaluating.

One of the elements of the pre-draft process that I hadn’t thought much about is how much the players learn during their visits. The teams are in control of the process, no doubt. But the players are not dumb. They’re forming opinions too. All the players are too shrewd to say anything negative about a potential employer. They know how the game is played. But bring up a team with a messy front office and listen as the conversation fades. Bring up Boston and you’ll hear the glee of a wide-eyed basketball historian. And you’ll probably hear about their dreaded 3 minute work out drill. Down and back as many times as possible in 3 minutes. It’s all mental, I’m told.  The same could be said of the Combine.

The theater of hop, skip, jump goes beyond the interplay between player and executive. You could tell that some of the players were less than impressed by the smarmy smiles of glad-handing journalists.  And, at other times, the respect between reporter and player was clear, running both directions.

It’s a lot for someone like Tyler Smith to take in. Even though he and his fellow draft hopefuls were adapting to a new environment, they had clearly picked up the rhythm and could dance the steps.

Most of the responses were of the “no, I don’t want to play in the D-League” variety. Other players, surprisingly, knew very little about the D-League.  One agent told me in a matter of fact manner that he “doesn’t really address” the subject with his clients.  Most players responded to the question as if they existed in a bubble where they were surefire first round picks, with all the comforts of a guaranteed salary and a spot in the rotation. Unfortunately, most of them are not guaranteed those things–they’ll never know such luxuries.

But I don’t want to paint with too  broad a stroke. At least two players with whom I spoke knew the score. Tyler Smith and Joe Ingles.

Ingles wasn’t enamored about the prospect of playing in the D-League. He told me plainly that he’d rather not. In some ways it would be a step down from his current situation, and given the choice between developing in the D-League and developing in Europe, he’d prefer Europe. He has his options. But then he paused. “That’s not the case with the Spurs. Their situation in Austin is different. It’s really not the same thing. The Toros are part of the Spurs’  program.”

This distinction exists in time and space, at least from Ingles’ perspective. Joe Ingles is impressive in conversation and comes across as a consummate professional. He was well-versed in all things San Antonio, in part because Spurs assistant Brett Brown is head coach of Australia’s men’s basketball team.  Ingles has played professionally for 3 seasons, and he’s grown accustomed to the advantages this brings. Specifically, the attention of a full time coaching staff, trainers, and the ability to concentrate on his game without distraction. He’s a guy who enjoys being coached. San Antonio’s coach by proxy program in Austin was attractive to him in all the ways a typical assignment would not be.   He’s a smart guy.

Tyler Smith reacted similarly.  He knew that the draft process was an audition for professional basketball clubs everywhere. Much like Ingles, Smith wasn’t keen on playing in the D-League, but he quickly acknowledged a difference in what San Antonio did. And much like Ingles, he seemed to embrace the opportunity to play for a team so deeply committed to player development. I have no doubt that both players will do everything within their power to crack an NBA rotation as quickly as they’re able. But between now and then, neither is above coaching. Both welcome it.

No one knows where each player will be drafted, or by whom. Ingles  and Smith have worked out for the Spurs and each spoke highly of the franchise.  But what struck me about each of them is that they had a realistic perspective on what lies ahead. Neither player will think he has arrived when his name is called on draft night. It’s a long road forward.

I just bumped into Omri Casspi again and he echoed the familiar sentiment. “I’d rather play one-on-one or three-on-three,” he commented. Why not a full-on five-on-five scrimmage? “The problem is that everyone is trying to prove themselves. If we played five-on-five, some guys wouldn’t pass.”

When you get this many people together the conversation can go in a lot of directions. It’s striking that so many conversations are about how guys fared in interviews and not necessarily about how they drilled.

Don’t get me wrong. There is plenty of talk about drill times, vertical leaps, and all that. Danny Green, for example, measured longer than expected. Luke Harangody, who outbenched everyone here, is being called Matt Bonner with muscle. DeJuan Blair is short. Terrance Williams can really jump. DeMar DeRozan looks fluid. You hear these things. (Green, by the way, worked out for San Antonio and Harangody interviewed with them last night.)

But you also hear plenty of stuff about how players carry themselves, how they account for past mistakes, whether or not they can maintain a conversation without texting. Teams take notes.  A well-connected source who had read my recent post about Vladimir Dasic pulled me aside to say that many teams wouldn’t touch him because he was “not all there.”  Otherwise, I was told, he’d project much higher. Too much risk.

Still, for as helpful as interviews and psychological profiles and reliable measurements can be, almost everyone here would just rather play.