Offensively, he [Blair] has the best in-air balance of anyone on the team not named Tony Parker. Blair is a case study of how to properly transform hard contact into shooting space. And his understanding of space is remarkable for such a young player. Strangely enough, Blair reminds me of Fabricio Oberto in his uncanny ability to move into empty space around the hoop and dutifully present himself to the passer. This helps explain why Blair and Ginobili play so well together. DeJuan is practically Argentinean.

In this morning’s Express-News, Jeff McDonald and Manu Ginobili pick up the same conversation.

“I played with Fabri for over 10 years,” said Ginobili, who first met Oberto when they were teenagers in Argentina. “He knew exactly how I wanted the screens. He had a passion for setting screens like I’ve never seen.

…Blair and Ginobili are only in the courtship phase of their relationship, but they pick and roll like an old married couple. With Ginobili supplying the trick-shot passes, and Blair producing the kind of slick catches and nimble finishes that belie his 6-foot-7, 270-pound frame, the Spurs’ second unit often has become must-see theater.

Where Oberto was a Hall of Fame pick-setter, Blair has proven himself adept at the other half of the equation.

“He’s a really good roller,” Ginobili said. “I know he’s going to be attacking the rim. That’s something you can count on, even when you don’t see him.”

That’s an excerpt, and the rest of the article is worth your time. But for now we’ll consider the matter settled: DeJuan Blair is one part Fabricio Oberto, one part Carl Landry.

]]> http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/03/04/blair-as-oberto/feed/ 45 http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/20/philadelphia-76ers-106-san-antonio-spurs-94/ http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/20/philadelphia-76ers-106-san-antonio-spurs-94/#comments Sat, 20 Feb 2010 16:08:42 +0000 Timothy Varner http://www.48minutesofhell.com/?p=6569 When a team is playing well, it typically moves from lesser to greater certainty as the season progresses. All the big questions that lead the season find a satisfactory resolution in a sharp player rotation, efficient scoring, and a defense that can, at least, get the necessary stops that winning requires. Those things come together, and plenty more aside. It’s a process of refinement.

The San Antonio Spurs are the same curious lump of clay that began the season, more shapeless than molded, and more or less stuck with the same questions that hounded them back in October. And where they have answers (Will Richard Jefferson fit? Can they stay healthy?), there is cause for discouragement.

Jeff McDonald offered this fitting description of last night’s loss, “Doomed by another spectacular fourth-quarter meltdown, the Spurs lost 106-94 to the Sixers, another frustrating lowlight in their two-steps-forward, one-step-back campaign.” The only quibble I would register is over the two forward, one back thing. The Spurs, to my mind, are walking in place. And in doing so, their legs are beginning to tire.

Tony Parker only played 29 minutes on 1-9 shooting. Maybe he shouldn’t have played at all. Between a strained hip flexor and plantar fasciitis, Parker is a shadow of himself.  His Kobe Bryant routine is admirable, but when Bryant plays through injuries his team has the good manners to win.

Parker’s status against Detroit in uncertain, but Gregg Popovich should give strong consideration to letting Parker rest.

The only thing we can know from last night’s loss is that the Spurs are not a good basketball team. They’re mired in mediocrity; they’re not healthy.

In the past one could say San Antonio’s opponent shot 51% from the field, and then qualify it as an aberration. And while Philadelphia did connect on 51% of its baskets last night, the only qualifier is to say it could have been worse. The 76ers at rim eFG% was 76.7%. In other words, they scored at rim at will, especially in transition.

In light of Tony Parker’s struggles, the team will need scoring from elsewhere in the coming games. Against the 76ers, Tim Duncan shot poorly, something that is increasingly common as the season stretches toward a close. But on most nights one would expect him to score on better than 40% of his shot attempts. And to attempt more than 10 shots.

The question is who will score in Tony Parker’s absence, assuming he misses games or sees fewer minutes. The ideal situation would be for Richard Jefferson to find his game, but he’s given little indication that he’s capable of scoring regularly within the Spurs’ offense. A more likely scenario is increased minutes for Manu Ginobili, George Hill and DeJuan Blair. Against the 76ers each of those players contributed more than one point per possession used (1.08, 1.24, and 1.07, respectively). Although, DeJuan Blair played a curiously short 16 minutes.  But I’d wager that some combination of that threesome picks up the scoring slack.

Tomorrow’s game against Detroit concludes the Rodeo Road Trip. But, if the previous game is any indicator, we’re not likely to know anything more leaving than going in.

]]> http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/20/philadelphia-76ers-106-san-antonio-spurs-94/feed/ 48 http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/ http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/#comments Wed, 17 Feb 2010 16:03:16 +0000 Timothy Varner http://www.48minutesofhell.com/?p=6511 Wayne Winston, who served as a statistical consultant to the Dallas Mavericks for the last nine years, and is the author of Mathletics, was kind enough to explore a handful of Spurs-related questions with me. Over the next few days I’ll put up a series of short posts detailing the more salient moments of our exchange.

At the outset of our conversation, Winston quickly pointed toward Tony Parker’s plantar fasciitis as the first place to start when discussing San Antonio’s underwhelming start. He referred to this as a “major issue.” Beyond this, however, Winston said “if the Spurs rotated through these lineups, they would be great.”

Winston made his mark with the Mavericks by studying these sort of things and making recommendations to their coaching staff and front office. This is his wheelhouse.

A few observations:

• Other than Roger Mason Jr.’s appearance in the final suggested lineup, it seems that the Spurs could move on quite easily without him. The same is true for another of their expiring contracts, Michael Finley.
• Matt Bonner, on the other hand, remains an adjusted plus/minus champ. At this point, it’s impossible to deny his usefulness to the Spurs. There he is again, popping up in two of San Antonio’s best five court combinations. If the Spurs move his expiring contract before deadline, they could feel the loss.
• If the Spurs are playing well, Manu Ginobili is typically involved.
• One wonders if Richard Jefferson is such a fixture because he’s secretly helpful or because he plays such heavy minutes? Given the current roster, his minutes are safe. Even when Jefferson is playing poorly, he’s San Antonio’s best option at his position.
• Antonio McDyess is a much bigger part of San Antonio’s good play than previously suspected; DeJuan Blair deserves to be on the court.
• If San Antonio trades Matt Bonner and/or Antonio McDyess, they’re essentially starting from scratch with their frontcourt rotation. The lineups suggested by Winston could justify simply increasing their playing time, and not giving so many minutes over to small-ball. In other words, the Spurs aren’t necessarily stuck if they can’t land a trade.

Your thoughts?

From where I stand, the situation is clear. It may be hard to stomach, but that does not affect its veracity.

The Spurs are not going to win a title as currently constituted. To some this may seem obvious, to others overly pessimistic. Either way it is clear to me that not a single member of the Spurs is playing at the level necessary to win a title. It takes not one or two, but several very talented players executing at a high level to hoist banners, and there is nothing that currently suggests that critical mass of execution is achievable.

There is not a trade that the Spurs can make that lifts them into contention this season. The problems this team is facing are very deeply entrenched and one, even two significant roster shakeups would not have the dramatic impact necessary to thrust the team back into the league’s top tier. Even if we somehow made a move that undeniably improved the level of talent on our roster, I agree with Gregg Popovich: “We’ve never had a group like this that didn’t gel, as far as being consistent night after night. I think if we change this person for that person, we’d still have the same problem.”

That being said, the Spurs may still be able to win a title during the Tim Duncan era, and can certainly win one in the next five years. But in order for that to happen, they must start making moves that are focused on the future. And not the near future. Their intention needs to be to contend two or three years down the line, not this season or even next.

In other words, I think it is time to start rebuilding.

There are three players that I am unwilling to trade: Tim Duncan, George Hill, and DeJuan Blair. In my opinion everyone else, to differing degrees, is on the table.

Tim Duncan is not on the table because he is the entire franchise and the greatest power forward of all time.

George Hill and DeJuan Blair are not on the table because they are young, cheap, and the only players on the roster that I can confidently say are going to play better next season than this season. A key element of rebuilding is adding young talent, not shipping it off.

Beyond that, anyone is up for discussion. Tony Parker. Manu Ginobili. Definitely Richard Jefferson.

Given the scale of what I am proposing, the trade possibilities are practically endless. So here are some rough guidelines I’d be interested in seeing the front office follow.

I think the goal should be acquiring young, developing players. Players who it is safe to assume have their best seasons still ahead of them. Certainly not anyone who will be thirty or over in two years. If we have to get a slightly older player in order to get a young prospect (For instance, Richard Jefferson for Corey Maggette and Anthony Randolph) that is acceptable, but the focus needs to be on young talent.

We need to commit ourselves to this strategy; any concerns that our team might get worse in the short term need to be thrown out the window. Getting worse now is not the goal- as I’ll explain in a moment I don’t think we should tank purposefully -but if it is a byproduct of a long term move, so be it.

This may sound strange, but the season has gone too well so far to tank. Fifty games into the season the Spurs are eight games over .500. I don’t think there are enough wounds the team could self-inflict that would move us far enough down the ladder to get a meaningful draft pick. If we miss the playoffs and get a lottery pick in the mid-first round, great. If we have a tidy little first round exit at the hands of the Lakers or Mavericks, well, that’s fine too. A brief trip to the postseason this year won’t dramatically affect our ability to rebuild.

We need to reconsider our approach to the draft. We need to stop trading away our draft picks, or at the very least not trade them away lightly. We need to stop drafting and stashing; we need to continue to make picks in the mold of George Hill and DeJuan Blair, picks whose value is clear within the first season or two.

And lastly, we need to be honest about the trade value of the various players on the team.

Richard Jefferson’s trade value is very low, but if it is possible to move him, the Spurs should pull the trigger. As we all know, it may not be possible to move him, at least not without getting bloodied in the process. And we shouldn’t be so anxious to move him that we load ourselves down with an undesirable, long term contract. Jefferson’s contract expires after next season. Worst case scenario: We just let it expire.

I know a few of you will be waiting out back for me with pitchforks when you read this, but here it goes: We need to trade Manu Ginobili. He has not played well enough this year to merit a new contract, and given his trajectory over the last three seasons, there is no reason to believe he will be able to play with any consistency over the coming years. Manu Ginobili has a $10.7 million expiring contract. We need to use that aggressively.

Along with Ginobili, we need to be willing to ship out Roger Mason Jr., Matt Bonner, Michael Finley, Keith Bogans, Theo Ratliff, and Ian Mahinmi in whatever combination brings back the most young talent. If we can attach a few of those to Richard Jefferson in order to make him palatable to other teams, so be it.

As the youngest member of the big three, Tony Parker is the most likely to be a force in the coming seasons, but that does not mean his name should be off the table entirely. Parker is arguably the oldest 27-year-old in the league, having played professional basketball in France before arriving in the NBA and having made several deep playoff runs during his career. If a team is willing to move a young all-star caliber player (Chris Paul, Devin Harris, Danny Granger), I am willing to discuss the idea of using Tony Parker as the centerpiece of such a trade.

For the time being Antonio McDyess is unlikely to be moved, as he has both underachieved this season and his contract does not effectively expire until the end of next season (his contract extends through 2011-12, but the third year is not guaranteed).

Does this mean Tim Duncan will retire with only four rings? I think no matter what we do, that is likely. But for those who say we owe it to Duncan to try to win another title, I think this gives the Spurs the best chance of doing so. Duncan is still an all-star caliber player, one of the best big men in the league. But he used to move mountains; now he is just very good at basketball. I think he can still be the centerpiece of a championship caliber team, but once upon a time he was Atlas- he could carry the world on his shoulders. Those days are no more. If we want to win another title, we will need to surround Duncan with more talent than ever before. The Spurs as currently constructed are not going to get it done.

There is no dignity in dying a slow painful death as a member of the pack. If we aren’t getting better, we are getting worse. It’s time to make some radical changes. The window has closed on this incarnation of the Spurs, but Tim Duncan and the rest of the franchise are in a position to rebound from this disappointing season.

George Hill.  Gregg Popovich inserted Hill into the lineup six games back, and, on an individual level, the results are impressive. As a starter Hill is averaging 15.9 points while shooting 46.9% from the field. He’s aggressive on offense and defense, gets to the rim and does his best to pester his man. Most importantly, Hill’s play making abilities have improved throughout the season. Earlier this year, he did a poor job of including others in the action, which is not such a great thing for a point guard. But, as I said, he’s improved on that front. The only disadvantage to increasing Hill’s minutes is that the Spurs–whether featuring Hill-Parker, Hill-Ginobili, or Ginobili-Parker–are typically outsized by opposing backcourts. Smart coaches, Phil Jackson-smart coaches, will look to exploit their size advantage in a playoff series.

The decline of small-ball. With the gradual return of Matt Bonner and the inclusion of Antonio McDyess into the starting lineup, the Spurs are not featuring as much small-ball. This is a two game sample, and other factors come into play, but their interior defense looks better because of it. And the spacing that Bonner and McDyess provide is helping to open things up for their guards. San Antonio’s smalls play better when the team goes big.

I’m not a small-ball basher. It has its place. But the Spurs are a better team when their personnel allows them to serve small-ball up as a side dish, not an entree.  At heart San Antonio is a defensive team. And there are two shot-bothering bigs at the heart of their defense.

Starting Antonio McDyess also provides the benefit of bringing DeJuan Blair off the bench. In my estimation, Blair’s hustle and energy serve the Spurs better in that capacity.

By quarter scoring. Unfortunately, there is at least one discouraging trend. San Antonio has consistently played better basketball in the first half of the game, jumping out to a big lead before seeing it diminish through the final two quarters. This was the case last night, and it has played out this way since opening night.

*Numbers courtesy of hoopstats.com

This final talking point, the fact that the Spurs are a better during the game’s opening quarters, is difficult to assess. My gut tells me it’s a combination of two factors. The first is that the new guys aren’t executing as well down the stretch because the Spurs’ reduced playbook doesn’t allow Gregg Popovich the range of halftime adjustments he’s enjoyed in the past. The other gut-level guess is obvious: the Spurs’ best three players are either old or injured. LJ Ellis of SpursTalk takes up this discussion in his recap.

Without Tony Parker, the Spurs put their offense in Tim Duncan’s hands — and with good results. Duncan facilitated the offense well, made smart decisions and kept everyone involved. When he looked for his own shot, he was decent but he did take a lot of awkward shot attempts. In his last five games, he’s shooting just 35.8% (28-for-81) from the field. Defensively, he was a step slow sometimes when it came do help defense — though his individual post defense was very solid. All in all, Duncan played a heady game but didn’t look 100% physically. Why? Not sure but hopefully it is just fatigue.

Manu Ginobili continues to have very similar outings. While he’s struggling converting his field goal attempts, he’s making fantastic passes and he’s playing with a lot of energy. Another common thread is the fact that Ginobili is fading down the stretch of games. He was 0-for-3 against Memphis in the fourth quarter. On the season, Ginobili is shooting just 35.3% from the field in fourth quarters, including 23.1% from beyond the arc.

For these reasons, and several others aside, I’m increasingly convinced that the Spurs are an impact player away from a championship. They need to land more punches over the back 24, and some of this is helped by not whiffing on as many swings. But adding another slugger would help.

Tony Parker fed the ball into Blair, who had established position on the low block and was being guarded by David West. After a few anticipatory dribbles by Blair, Darius Songalia left Tim Duncan and collapsed onto the ball. Blair immediately noticed the double and tossed the ball back out to Parker. The ball then made a decisive journey around the 3-point line: From Parker to Manu Ginobili and then finally into the hands of George Hill, who was setup in the corner. Hill paused and extended; the ball slid through the net.

That play won’t be making any highlight reels, nor should it. It wasn’t the game’s most spectacular or impactful play. It didn’t initiate or conclude the particular run the Spurs were on, nor did the 21 point lead built up during that stretch stop New Orleans from fighting their way back into the ball game. But the play struck me nonetheless.

On the surface the play, although well executed, doesn’t seem that noteworthy. The Spurs have run that exact play, and run it exceptionally well, for years. Duncan draws the double then kicks the ball back outside. The ball is quickly moved around the perimeter to a waiting shooter- Bowen, Ginobili, Horry, Bonner – who, setup in the corner, buries the ball at the bottom of the net. But Duncan wasn’t the player who drew the double and it wasn’t Bowen or Bonner or any member of the old guard who took the shot. The play began with an undersized 20-year-old power forward from Pittsburgh and ended with an unheralded 23-year-old combo guard from Indianapolis.

Put more succinctly, with around 7 minutes left in the third quarter, I watched the Spurs perfectly execute a play they’ve been running for years. But it didn’t begin or end with guys who’ve been doing it for years; it began and ended with guys who’ll be doing it for years to come. That’s why, with around 7 minutes left in the third quarter, I couldn’t help but smile.

In today’s Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, there’s a lengthy piece on hometown kid DeJuan Blair’s first few months in the NBA. It’s a good read and there are some fun details about Blair’s life outside basketball, like how he’s renting out Tony Parker’s old house and is a recurring dinner guest of the Parkers.

Mr. Parker, the Spurs’ star point guard, was 19 years old when he was a rookie nine years ago and understands what Mr. Blair is going through during his first season. Mr. Parker knows making Mr. Blair comfortable in his surroundings is an important aspect of easing his transition to the NBA.

Ms. Longoria Parker, a star of ABC’s “Desperate Housewives,” has become a big fan of Mr. Blair. When she is not working, she is a fixture at Spurs games and prepares meals when Mr. Blair visits.

“I love Eva,” Mr. Blair said. “She’s a wonderful person. Since she’s a star, you would think she would be different, but she’s wonderful. She cooks. She has a great personality. They’re perfect for each other. They opened their house for me and took me under their wing. I really love them. They’re good people.”

With the excellent attitude Blair brought into his rookie season and the strong support system he’s built in San Antonio, it’s no wonder Blair has exceeded most people’s expectations so far.

There’s also video accompanying the story with interviews of Blair, Antonio McDyess and George Hill talking about Blair’s adjustment to the NBA and what he needs to work on.

It’s all a must read / watch for Spurs fans.

Well before the 2009 draft, I was talking on the phone with my brother from another mother, whose sensual voice you hear narrating the above video. At the time we both agreed that, behind Griffin, DeJuan Blair would be the second best big man in the entering rookie class. As of right now I’m feeling vindicated.

Ah yes, the second night of a back-to-back. In previous years, tonight would treat us to a game where the Spurs would show their age and wear down late in the contest. Sloppy plays would occur and fans would thank their lucky stars that there are no back-to-backs in the playoffs.

But since infusing some young legs into the team’s roster (See: Hill, George and Blair, DeJuan), San Antonio has used the second night of these two-day tests to rest older rotation players and give some playing time to fringe players. All while remaining competitive on both nights.

With that in mind, there are two things to expect tonight: Tim Duncan played 40 minutes last night. Don’t be surprised if he plays half that total tonight against the Thunder. The other thing to expect? A large dose of DeJuan Blair. The beast only played seven minutes last night against the Lakers and will face a better matchup with Oklahoma City.

Other things to watch for include Tony Parker’s foot. As Jesse mentioned this morning, Parker announced that he’s playing with plantar fasciitis. How he moves against quick guards like Russell Westbrook and James Harden will be interesting. Will they go after him with this newfound knowledge?

The Spurs have struggled against the Thunder since the team moved to Oklahoma City, going 2-3 this season and last. Assuming San Antonio can exorcise their demons and steal a road win, the Spurs could start to haunt the rest of the Western Conference in 2010.

Blair played the first five minutes of the game before being substituted for Antonio McDyess. He didn’t step on the floor again until there were just a couple of minutes remaining in the fourth quarter and the final score was just a formality.

I made a little prediction pre-game that there was a chance that Blair wouldn’t play a lot against the Lakers. Coach Popovich tends to lean on older players more in big games, and I thought that Theo Ratliff might see more time as a result.

Ratliff played in the second quarter but only totaled four minutes for the game. Instead, the Spurs used a combination of Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson at the four position, with excellent results. Lakers starting power forward Lamar Odom scored just 10 points on 2-6 shooting and was practically a ghost for the majority of the game.

But back to Blair. With Coach Pop’s tendency to favor vets, and Blair’s propensity to get into foul trouble, I thought his minutes would be limited in this game. Seven minutes was more limited than I expected, though.

At 7-foot, 280 pounds, Andrew Bynum is simply too big for Blair to guard, even with Blair’s knack for playing bigger than he looks. And DeJuan’s inexperience at guarding more perimeter-oriented bigs like Odom and Ron Artest meant he could easily end up in foul trouble early in the game.

With those things going against him, Coach Pop probably felt more comfortable going with a veteran front court and resting Blair for tonight’s game against the youthful and energetic Oklahoma City Thunder. Given the final result, it’s hard to argue.

Jefferson and McDyess were fantastic on defense and George Hill and Manu Ginobili each spent time guarding Artest. Even Ratliff played a solid four-minute stretch for San Antonio. With a 20-point win over the best team in the NBA, there is no second guessing Blair’s extended time on the padded seats of the AT&T Center on Tuesday night.

It just wasn’t your game, rook.

I’m not saying that Duncan is a power forward, and I’m sure as hell not saying he’s a center. What I am saying is that with players as unique as Duncan, positional designations cease to have meaning.

Still, some insist that Duncan is playing worse this season, which is mind-boggling. I can’t find a single shred of statistical evidence to support the claim. Amazingly, most statistics indicate just the opposite. So until someone shows me otherwise, I’m operating under the assumption that Duncan still has MVP-level basketball in his bones. And that assumption is interesting now that we’ve entered into NBA trade season.

When the Spurs traded for Richard Jefferson, everyone, including the team, indicated the the remaining two years on Jefferson’s contract corresponded with the remaining championship window on Duncan’s knees. Duncan, we were told, had two years of good basketball left.  And the Spurs were pushing all in.

But with Duncan playing so well this season, San Antonio has to wonder if that 2 year window is actually a 3 year window.  Does the Spurs championship window extend beyond Jefferson’s deal and into the final year of Duncan’s contract, especially if one assumes gradual improvement from George Hill and DeJuan Blair? Why is this consideration important?

Simply put, the Spurs may have opportunity to cash in on another salary dump between now and the deadline. If they can reasonably assume that Duncan will give them decent production in 2011/12, Buford and company might consider a deal (it would have to be a good deal, obviously) which took back someone’s bloated contract in exchange for a dynamic roster through 2012. You follow? Let me explain.

I’ll use the Sacramento Kings and Andres Nocioni as an example. (Note: this is strictly an example. I’m not passing it off as inside information. It  doesn’t even rise to the dignity of being a rumor.) Nocioni’s contract runs through 2013, but the final year is not guaranteed, so his contract effectively expires after the 2011/12 season. His contract is not horrible, but most would describe it as bad, especially when one considers the Kings’ roster and Nocioni’s current production.  There is no question the Kings, who are losing money, would gladly deal Nocioni for an expiring contract or two.

The problem for the Kings is that few teams, if any, would take back Nocioni without some sort of trade sweetener. Would San Antonio consider taking back Andres Nocioni and Donte Greene in exchange for Mike Finley, Matt Bonner, Marcus Haislip and Ian Mahinmi? This summer, that sort of deal would not fly because of the long term cap implications.  Now, with Duncan playing as well as he is, it’s the sort of thing that might at least make the front office pause.

Obviously, there are drawbacks to such scenarios.

1. Peter Holt committed himself to two ugly seasons of high taxes by approving the Jefferson deal, and another trade such as the Nocioni example would likely tack a third season onto his tax headache. It might be too much to ask.
2. The Spurs will receive offers for Manu Ginobili and his expiring contract; some of those offers might make them think, too. Yet, it’s safe to assume San Antonio is interested in keeping Manu Ginobili in San Antonio. But if San Antonio moves for another sizable multi-year contract, they are greatly limiting their ability to resign Manu Ginobili this offseason. No one, including the Spurs and Ginobili, are sure if he’ll resign with San Antonio this summer, but these sort of trade scenarios are tantamount to saying “This is it.” The team has Ginobili’s Bird Rights, but does it matter if resigning him pushes their payroll even higher into tax territory?
3. The Spurs’ early season struggles have come, in part, from a lack of “corporate knowledge.” That is, from having so many guys in their first year of the system. Trading a productive, system-smart player like Matt Bonner or Mike Finley comes at more of a cost than raw statistics indicate.
4. It’s worth noting that San Antonio does not have Bird Rights on Roger Mason Jr. If the Spurs resign Mason this summer, it will come out of the MLE. The problem there, of course, is that the Spurs will presumably use a large chunk of the MLE on a Tiago Splitter offer, limiting their ability to resign Mason. If the Spurs trade for a contract that greatly reduces their ability to resign Ginobili and are unlikely to resign Mason Jr, they leave themselves with a long term hole at shooting guard with no obvious way to fill it. Update:  While this last point is technically correct, San Antonio will have “Early Bird Rights” on Mason. They can resign him for up to 175% of his current contract–so unless another team offers Mason more than 6.5 million, San Antonio should have a decent chance of resigning him. Thanks to CGD for catching the error.

Factor in those considerations, and Tim Duncan’s strong play might not change a thing about the operating game plan.

The Spurs may have won the rebounding battle, but they lost in every other phase of play. The Celtics controlled the game from the outset.

“It’s a 48 minute game and you have to play all 48 especially against a team like Boston. Tonight we played a quarter and that’s not good enough. We didn’t shoot well, but that’s really irrelevant. The turnovers and missed free throws those sorts of things really hurt us to start the first and the third quarters.” Or so said Popovich after the game.

Taking our talking points from Popovich, there is no doubt the Spurs played sloppy basketball against the Celtics. Consider that the Spurs committed 18 turnovers and shot a laughable 41% from the free throw line, and it’s easy to make Popovich’s case. But the most intriguing storyline of last night’s game is not about who was on the court and how they played, it’s about who wasn’t and why they didn’t.

Manu Ginobili played 18 minutes of mediocre basketball against the Celtics ; he didn’t play at all during the Spurs’ 4th quarter comeback attempt, unless you count the few possessions of desperation three point heaves in the final minute. He shot 4-12 in the game and was part of the third quarter defensive break down that led to Rasheed Wallace’s buzzer beating three.  From one perspective, it seemed like Gregg Popovich benched–gasp!–Manu Ginobili during the game’s most important stretch.

Upon closer examination, it’s difficult to make this case. After the game, Popovich indicated that Ginobili’s minutes were intentionally limited as the team works him back into shape after his most recent injury, a gimpy hamstring. Ginobili played 18 minutes against the Celtics, but he had only played 17 against the 76ers just 4 nights before.

It’s also worth noting that Popovich didn’t reintroduce Tim Duncan into the action until the 4 minute mark of the 4th quarter, which seemed odd considering how tight the game was in the minutes immediately preceding Duncan’s return from rest. Duncan only played 32 minutes, which is right at his season average. Unlike Ginobili, Duncan was having a fine game. There was no reason to sit him other than exercising a coach’s prerogative–and especially this coach’s prerogative–of managing his best (and most fragile) players’ minutes.

If one looks at Ginobili’s “benching” in that way, it creates a window through which to view Popovich’s mantra about health being the most vital aspect to winning a championship, but it also begs a couple questions about the Spurs’ confidence in Manu Ginobili’s body.

Put differently, the Spurs are trying hard to win in the regular season, and they’re not. They won’t lose sight of the finish line by becoming distracted by the race. But when does the necessity to manage minutes go from coaching wisdom to a crippling constraint? And, of course, how does one gather assurance that the body can withstand the rigors of heavy play? It’s a question I ask myself with increasing frequency.

But it’s not all bad. The Spurs played very poorly and still hung with the Celtics. Richard Jefferson hurt the team more than he helped it, the team missed the majority of its free throws, Pop limited the play of his two best players, and the team turned the ball over far too often. It’s a loss, but not a lost caused.

And the Spurs learned something about themselves, as well.

DeJuan Blair’s season has come and gone in waves. He’s currently riding a wave that deserves a heavy dose of minutes. Blair is an incredibly instinctive player and it’s curious to watch him intuit basketball. Ten games ago I wouldn’t have trusted his post defense to guard my niece.  But while there are still noticeable mistakes on that front, he’s starting to figure how to best use his body to defend bigger players. It sounds cliche, but he’s improving with each game.

Offensively, he has the best in-air balance of anyone on the team not named Tony Parker. Blair is a case study on how to properly transform hard contact into shooting space. And his understanding of space is remarkable for such a young player. Strangely enough, Blair reminds me of Fabricio Oberto in his uncanny ability to move into empty space around the hoop and dutifully present himself to the passer. This helps explain why Blair and Ginobili play so well together. DeJuan is practically Argentinean.

Blair’s rugged style of play gives him a brutish reputation, but he continues to show me that he’s more brain than brawn. He’s a smart basketball player. I’m confident that his natural feel for the game will diminish his most glaring shortcomings as a defender. The fact that he was an overwhelming net positive against the Celtics frontline is encouraging.

(HT: SpursRulez4Ever@SpursTalk)

So far as winning streaks go, the current run is nothing to brag about. The Spurs have played 4 of 5 at home, beating Washington, Milwaukee, Golden State, Houston and Philadelphia. Prior to those five victories, San Antonio lost three in a row, and against playoff caliber competition. One could argue that that streak was more telling, that losses to Oklahoma, Dallas and Utah were more indicative of where the Spurs currently stand in Western conference pecking order.

The truth probably lies somewhere in between.

There are noteworthy points on each side of the argument, but it seems to me like the Spurs are ascending.

Richard Jefferson

The Spurs pessimist, certain to demur,  will point to Richard Jefferson’s uneven play, wondering what the offseason fuss was all about. Jefferson has looked decidedly mediocre on most nights, despite a couple convincing early season performances. What’s the deal?

Unfortunately for the Spurs, the main concern with Jefferson is that he’s not impacting the game enough on the defensive end. His man defense is good, but not great. The Spurs consistently look to George Hill and Keith Bogans to guard the opposing team’s best perimeter players. Hill and Bogans relish the role of defensive stopper, and they also bring the goods. This is something the Spurs wanted from Richard Jefferson, and could still use, but have yet to see.

The worry here can’t be explained away by a lack of understanding. This is not a matter of Jefferson learning the system. This is a lack of defensive intensity.

It’s a pity for Jefferson, too. His offensive contribution might increase if he were more of a menace on defense. Simply put, he’s not playing poorly; he’s just not asserting himself at either end of the court. This is something Jefferson can improve now.

Defensively, it’s tough to award him more than a C.

On offense, Jefferson is in search of his niche with the Spurs, and we should expect him to take time finding it. RJ is not a particularly creative dribbler, and so his drives to the hoop depend on his ability to attack when the floor spacing bends in his favor. He’s kind of a Corey Maggette in the sense that he attacks the hoop straightaway. See Richard lower his head. See Richard drive to the hoop.

That’s not a bad thing. It’s just a matter of spacing and chemistry.  Although, the Spurs would help Jefferson immensely if they could find him more often in transition.

He’s earned an incomplete on offense.

Jefferson’s lackluster defensive play highlights a lurking roster deficiency, one that is extremely difficult to quantify.

Wanted: More Grit

David Thorpe is fond of saying that energy is a skill. He’s right, and it’s helpful to remember that “intangibles” are unique to the skill sets of players and teams. Back when the Spurs were the defensive kings of the league–it’s a shame we have to couch such statements in the past tense–their team defense was gritty. Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry, for example, were physical players, not afraid to use their hands and hips on defense. Steve Nash was always one bump away from the scorers table.

Like it or not, good defensive teams are physical. The best two defensive teams I’ve watched this season, Boston and Charlotte, never tire of laying a body on the other bodies. When chesting guys off their cut-line isn’t effective, both teams are happy to straight push the opposition off course. Richard Jefferson needs to play with more grit.  DeJuan Blair needs to learn grit. George Hill, Keith Bogans and Antonio McDyess are almost pestering, but need to take their defensive brattiness up a level.

Beginning to Board

The second area of concern for the Spurs has been rebounding, something we’ve repeatedly mentioned in this space. But the Spurs have turned the ship.

San Antonio started the season near the bottom of the league in terms of their offensive and defensive rebound rate, but they’re much improved. Their defensive rebound rate is near the top of the league, and they rank in the middle with regard to offensive boards. That’s not such a bad place for the Spurs, especially considering that they prefer transition defense to offensive boards. They actually won the battle of the boards by plus-5 during their 3-game losing streak.  It’s a story fading to black.

Most of San Antonio’s losses this season–the recent three game skid included–were a tale of the team lacking energy, of not looking sharp. The team as a team is beginning to come into focus.

A Defense on the Mend

The first and most important place of focus is defense. The team played dreadful D over the course of the first half dozen games, but that’s no longer the case.

During their 5-game winning streak, San Antonio is beating opponents by 13.2 ppg. More impressively, the Spurs are holding opponents to 40.9% shooting. They’re doing a much better job of closing the lane and contesting shots than earlier in the season. The Spurs’ defense is solid trending toward fierce, but, as noted above, still lacks the requisite attitude of a top defensive team.

Tony Parker as Less Than Tony Parker

Neither Manu Ginobili nor Tony Parker are off to hot starts this season. Each player has nursed minor injuries, and neither is playing at his accustomed level of dominance. But this is an area where player efficiency ratings–especially those with a large sample size–are a help.

Manu Ginobili is an easy case.  His current PER is 22.99. His average over the past 5 seasons is 23.19. In other words, when Manu is healthy, he’s capable of giving the Spurs the same boost toward a championship as in past seasons. He’s fragile, but resilient.

Tony Parker is out-of-sync. His current PER, 18.98, is down almost 5 points from last season. One should expect his per minute production to increase, and as that happens the Spurs’ already fifth ranked offense should improve too. John Hollinger projected Tony Parker to PER at 21.85 this season. That might be a smidgen high, but there is no reason to think Parker won’t end up closer to 22 than 18.

Here’s the point: the full-time return of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will improve the team. (I know, Captain Obvious strikes again.)  But improvement is not simply a matter of their being on the court. The point is a little more subtle.

When Parker and Ginobili are playing, the Spurs are a better team. But it’s also true that when Parker and Ginobili are playing Parker and Ginobili are better.  Their full-time return should allow each player to work his way to full-strength.

Best Bench in the NBA

So far as Jefferson, Parker and Ginobili are off to rough starts, the Spurs’ core is struggling. San Antonio’s bench, on the other hand, is remarkably good. It’s the best bench in the league, and mostly without its key cog. Matt Bonner is playing the best basketball of his career, George Hill is steady, but not sensational, and DeJuan Blair is a burst of energy whenever he steps onto the court.

The bench is not without issues, of course. Roger Mason Jr., for example, is slowly working his way out of a shooting slump. But on more than one occasion this season the reserves have carried the starters. If the bench can maintain its current level of play, the improved play of the final five will transform San Antonio into a unmistakable title contender.

Tim Duncan Still Dominant

The best thing about the first fifteen games of the season–the reason for the most optimism–is the play of Tim Duncan. Duncan is currently leading the Spurs in points (18.5), rebounds (10.8),  and blocks (2.0).  He’s third on the team in assists (3.7). The advanced player metrics suggest that Tim Duncan is one of the top 5-10 players in basketball, whether one considers PER (28.13, fourth in the league) or Adjusted PER (27.06, sixth in the league for players averaging over 30 minutes per game).

To say Tim Duncan is playing well this season is an understatement. He’s playing 6 points higher than his projected PER. And he’s doing so at less than 32 minutes per game. Some nights, like last night, players like DeJuan Blair give the Spurs the added luxury of giving their old warhorse rest. This is a fringe benefit to the team’s surging bench.

I’m not certain why Tim Duncan is playing so much better this season than last. Perhaps it’s the weight he lost in the offseason. Maybe it’s the improved cast. Whatever the case, he’s in top form.

Maintaining his league-leading form over a long season  is crucial for the Spurs. With Duncan playing this well, opposing teams must think long and hard about whether to double Tim Duncan. That decision, one that is out of the Spurs’ hands,  goes a long way in determining San Antonio’s offense.

Adding one thing to another, the Spurs are a long way from their best basketball. But they’re moving in the right direction.