Take the Spurs, for example.

In 2007 the Spurs took advantage of their choice draft position by selecting Tiago Splitter, a dominant, world-renowned center. In 2008, the Spurs converted their place at the top of the NBA draft  into George Hill, a highly-touted basketball stand-out from IUPUI. In 2009, the Spurs rushed out of the gates to claim DeJuan Blair, narrowly grabbing the statistical monster ahead of their rivals. The early bird catches the worm, and all that. And just last month, the Spurs claimed James Anderson, a little known All-American from Oklahoma City.

It’s clear that the Spurs have focused their front office efforts on rebuilding through the draft. Keep your eye on San Antonio, they could be good.

The Spurs’ roster is notable for who isn’t playing as much as it is for those who are.  James Anderson, Ryan Richards, and Malik Hairston will not play for the Spurs. Anderson is nursing an injury; Richards is out-of-pocket for undisclosed reasons, and Hairston, according to Spurs assistant coach Mike Budenholzer, already has fans in San Antonio. In other words, Hairston is a known quantity. His time is better spent refining his game in private workouts between now and training camp.

So, who is playing?

Alonzo Gee

For most fans, the development of DeJuan Blair is the central focus of summer league. Blair will get the ball early and often. But, in my opinion, the most intriguing player this summer is Alonzo Gee.

Gee played for the Toros last season and won D-League Rookie of the Year honors. And he was impressive in a couple of 10-day contracts with the Washington Wizards. He started two games for the Wizards and put up good numbers on didn’t-see-that-coming but accurate perimeter shooting.

Gee is uber-athletic and can score. The thing he has to prove to the Spurs this summer is the ability to play strong defense and knock-down perimeter shots. If he can do those two things, the Spurs will have minutes for him next season.

Oddly enough, Gee’s game reminds me a little of Richard Jefferson, back before the mention of Jefferson’s name turned my stomach. I don’t think Gee is nearly the talent that Jefferson was, but he has that game-changing athleticism which once made Jefferson a dangerous wing. If Gee can develop a reliable perimeter game, it’s not inconceivable that he pry a significant number of minutes off of Jefferson’s per game averages next season. The test of both players (assuming the Spurs resign Jefferson) is that they play defense and not destroy the Spurs’ offensive spacing.

DeJuan Blair

DeJuan Blair’s summer league work is similar to Gee, just at a different position: spacing and defense. In order to help propel the Spurs through the postseason, Blair needs a pick-and-pop game and to convincingly escape the “defensive liability” tag. Blair’s height is forever problematic against taller players such as Pau Gasol and Chris Bosh. But if he can master the Spurs’ defensive schemes and learn to use his feet on defense, he could become one of the NBA’s better bench players.

Blair is a fine player, but his rookie campaign left me with the impression that his ceiling is somewhere between 6 and 8 within a good team’s rotation. Assuming the Spurs sign Tiago Splitter, the Spurs are still one legitimate 7 footer short of a good postseason frontcourt. Whatever Blair becomes, he can never be that.

Garrett Temple

Garrett Temple is 6’6”. He can play multiple positions, but appears most comfortable at point guard. His three point shooting is increasingly reliable, and he has the makings of an above-average defender. What’s not to like? Last season Temple split time between Houston, Sacramento and San Antonio, starting 4 games for the Spurs while Tony Parker was injured.

Temple’s seemingly immediate comfort level within the Spurs’ offense was unusual for a player of his age and pedigree. If he can continue to provide the Spurs with good minutes, he’ll earn a spot as their third point guard and give the team a reliable option as they seek to manage the minutes of their core players. Temple’s size and defensive ability are especially welcome against the league’s better point guards. Temple still has to prove he can stick, but if he does, the Spurs will have solid depth at the guard position.

Temple, Gee, and Hairston

Every year is a reminder that the most important thing to have in the playoffs is health, and this especially for a team whose core is older and injury-prone, such as the Spurs. The Spurs have three interesting players in Gee, Temple, and Hairston. If two or more of these players can break, the Spurs will have good depth at 1, 2, and 3. The inability of Roger Mason Jr. and Keith Bogans to provide the Spurs with consistently productive minutes last season was a major detriment to their 2009-10 campaign.

On paper, Gee, Hairston and Temple are not imposing bench cogs like Bogans and Mason Jr. But I’m cautiously optimistic that these three players will provide unexpectedly productive minutes for the Spurs this season. The Spurs’ system will occasionally shine a light on an unheralded gem. Gee, Hairston and Temple might possess a surprising amount of luster.

“For you, the day Bison graced your village was the most important day of your life. But for me…it was Tuesday.”

—Street Fighter: The Movie

And so renews the most heated one-sided matchup in recent NBA history. The San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns are an interesting story to tell, depending on who tells it. You see, in Phoenix the ghosts of Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich haunt the desert nights, riding in every spring to torment the locals.

In Phoenix, those hated men in black are the source of a thousand wrongs upon which vengeance is sworn. For the Phoenix Suns and their fans every significant moment of their playoff lives inevitably leads back to the San Antonio Spurs.

Bruce Bowen’s greatest hits. The bloody nose. Robert Horry checking Steve Nash into the scorer’s table. And just to be a little more villainous, the Tim Duncan three-pointer. Each of these moments, and so many more, are ingrained into the hearts and memories of every single Phoenix Suns fan.

For the San Antonio Spurs…it was just Tuesday.

The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs? Now that’s a rivalry. Each team has eliminated the other, and each has played the game on the grandest possible stage. For the past decade, the Suns have been just some random team. Having exorcised a few playoff demons by eliminating one of their two bitter rivals, the Spurs move west along I-10 hoping to face the second.

In the interim, the most important question is whether the Phoenix Suns will again be merely a playoff speed bump, or will they rise up and finally be the rivals they and their fan base fancy themselves?

Having returned to their “seven seconds or less” ways under head coach Alvin Gentry, the Phoenix Suns seem to have finally settled on an appropriate balance of offense and defense (apparently with an assist from Jason Terry). The San Antonio Spurs, meanwhile, have opened up and diversified their offensive attack.

Tim Duncan’s forays into the post now buttress the offense created by the three-headed backcourt of Manu Ginobili, George Hill and Tony Parker, rather than creating them. The defense has slipped some. And while stylistically the two teams remain different, they are no longer on completely opposite sides of the spectrum. But does that mean the gap has closed?

Point Guard: MVP vs. MIP, George Hill hopes to contain Steve Nash

In Dallas, the Spurs faced a franchise player in Dirk Nowitzki who was brilliant offensively but lacked any defensive chops. Unfortunately between Antonio McDyess, DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner,San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich did not have very many options to exploit this fact.

Steve Nash has no such luck. With Popovich tightening the backcourt rotation to various combinations of Manu Ginobili, George Hill and Tony Parker, there is no Bruce Bowen to hide Nash’s defensive liabilities on anymore. But if the Suns are to choose, Nash on Ginobili would be a nightmare and history shows that giving him prolonged minutes on Tony Parker is a bad idea.

Chances are Alvin Gentry starts with Nash on George Hill, who was key in closing out the Mavericks but still relies primarily on spot up jumpers and transition baskets for offense. And score Hill must, because Steve Nash is not Jason Kidd.

There will be no shutting down the two-time MVP. The most Hill can hope to do is offset his production. In the past, Popovich’s final gambit was to put Bruce Bowen on Nash for each of the closing acts. For all his defensive strengths, perhaps the most underrated  was Bowen’s ability to fight through screens. Because of this, the Suns struggled to generate mismatches as the Spurs rarely had to switch. Will Hill be able to recreate this, or will we see him left on Amare while Duncan or McDyess are left at Nash’s mercy?

It might be odd to call Nash a good athlete, but his athleticism is underrated because he is not what we would consider explosive. Instead his game has a certain level of fluidity and dexterity that few athletes can compare to.  It will be important for Hill and the Spurs to force Nash to initiate the offense from a stop, where his lack of explosion can be a weakness. Fighting through screens would also help, as a help defender taking one step too many in the wrong direction generally leads to a Stoudemire dunk.

Shooting Guard: The Argentinian vs. the Acrobat, with no Raja Bell, who stops Ginobili

Jason Richardson is a newer addition to the Spurs-Suns history but has already been introduced to the so-called curse of the Spurs, having blown a wide open dunk to cost the Suns a game. A game that, without a victory, leaves the Spurs playing the Lakers in the first round.

Richardson came up big in the first round, averaging 23.5 ppg on 53 percent shooting, hitting over 50 percent from the three-point line. Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith once called Richardson the most “unathletic  athlete” in the NBA, which is an appropriate description because while he is a great leaper, he does not move well laterally or change directions smoothly. It will be interesting to see how Richardson responds when the Spurs chase him off the three-point line while denying those straight lines towards the rim.

Manu Ginobili will be key in this series and will likely see Grant Hill and Jared Dudley on him throughout the series. With all due respect, if Ginobili is right following his broken nose, there has not been a better player since March and neither should be able to guard them. Dallas began to load up their defense to stop his penetration, leaving role players like McDyess or Hill free to do their damage. With Ginobili it becomes pick your poison, and he supplies all different kinds.

Small Forward: Richard Jefferson squares off against Grant Hill, the Suns medical staff.

Because games with the Phoenix Suns tend to become fast paced, something the Spurs have even had trouble containing in the past, this series should play right into Richard Jefferson’s hands. Breathtaking straight line speed and an explosive leaper, Jefferson struggles in the half court pick and roll sets the Spurs like to run, though he was much improved in the Dallas series. Look for Jefferson to get involved early before giving way to the Spurs three-guard lineup.

The other Hill, Grant, has been taped together by the Suns medical staff and provides the Suns with another facilitator on the court. While a good midrange shooter, Hill does not possess great range on his jump shot. And so when paired with Jarron Collins in the starting lineup, the Spurs have far fewer distances to rotate out to.

Power Forward: From Nowitzki to Stoudemire, no rest for Antonio McDyess

With each passing series pundits claim this will be the year Stoudemire replaces Duncan as the preeminent “power forward” in the Western Conference. And with Duncan on the wrong side of 30, if they say it enough eventually they will be right. But is this the year?

It’s a difficult comparison because the two will rarely, if ever, guard each other. Instead Stoudemire will have to be concerned with Antonio McDyess, who can still hit the offensive boards, make midrange jumpers and move his feet.

Amare Stoudemire has been a matchup nightmare of the Spurs because they stubbornly leave him with single coverage for most of the game. In the past, that’s meant Fabricio Oberto or Matt Bonner seeing extended minutes on him, but McDyess offers a far better defender.

But as easy as it is to focus on the offensive strengths here, the key is defense. As much as he has been able to get his points against the Spurs, he has offset his production with horrible defense. For all the blame Suns fans heaped on Steve Kerr for trading Shawn Marion, it was just as much Stoudemire’s fault.

Had he shown even the slightest inclination to be a defensive anchor, the Suns would not have had to traded for Shaq. Which is a shame, because all the physical tools are there. For all the criticism Nash receives for his defense, guarding the pick and roll is all about the  help defenders and Stoudemire does his MVP point guard no favors.

Center: Tim Duncan vs. the poor man’s version of Erik Dampier

Until the return of Robin Lopez, and unless he returns at full strength, Tim Duncan will find himself on Jarron Collins with bouts of Channing Frye mixed in. Offensively it will be interesting to see if the Suns send double teams because in the past Duncan has shredded them to pieces. Collins provides everything that Dampier does (namely a large body to absorb fouls), only worse. And as Dirk Nowitzki said, it’s hard to beat the Spurs when they do not have to worry about your center position.

Bench: Tony Parker vs. the Legion of Suns

The Phoenix Suns might actually have the deeper bench in this series, rolling out Jared Dudley, Goran Dragic, Channing Frye and Leandro Barbosa. But the Spurs have the best player, Tony Parker. With Dudley and Hill expected to see most of their time on Ginobili, Parker should find favorable matchups all series. The key to containing Parker then will be how Stoudemire hedges the pick and roll, something that has never been favorable for the Suns.

Bonner offers the same game as Channing Frye, but for some reason is criticized twice as much for his poor defense. Something to watch will be the minutes of DeJuan Blair, as the Suns lack the quality size Dallas had and he could easily be given more burn in the series.

The Prediction

This is the most complete Suns team the San Antonio Spurs have ever faced, though injuries (Nash, Lopez) might play a part. But the formula for success has always been in the Spurs big three and until someone beats them healthy (or until they meet the Lakers) they have to be favored.

Spurs in six. The non-rivalry continues.

]]> http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/05/03/steve-nash-and-the-phoenix-suns-look-to-make-the-san-antonio-spurs-a-rival-at-last/feed/ 75 http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/05/02/san-antonio-spurs-and-dallas-mavericks-revisited-a-blueprint-in-black-and-silver/ http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/05/02/san-antonio-spurs-and-dallas-mavericks-revisited-a-blueprint-in-black-and-silver/#comments Sun, 02 May 2010 13:16:17 +0000 Jesse Blanchard http://www.48minutesofhell.com/?p=7966 The greatest seventh seed in NBA history? Not exactly a compliment in the eyes of Tim Duncan. Certainly the San Antonio Spurs are the first seventh seed to eliminate a second seed since the NBA Playoffs switched formats to a first round best-of-seven series. But Duncan and the rest of the world will have to be forgiven if the moment hardly seems historical, or surprising.

This season’s incarnation of the San Antonio Spurs garnered its fair share of doubts, and at times deservedly so, but no matter the seed they were labeled with, the Spurs advanced to the second round against the Phoenix Suns because their identity remains largely the same: the principles and system of head coach Gregg Popovich executed at the highest levels first and foremost by the trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.

For all the talk generated about the Dallas Mavericks’ new identity, it was the San Antonio Spurs that reclaimed theirs. For all the words dedicated to the Mavericks’ superior depth–and the Spurs getting lost in the NBA’s arms race–it was Gregg Popovich’s players that were simply the more talented team.

Proliferation Pontificated: Duncan, Ginobili and Parker as the first “Superpower”

It has been two seasons since the San Antonio Spurs last won an NBA championship, not coincidentally, it also marked the last time Manu Ginobili and the Big Three were healthy. Since that time the NBA has seen a proliferation of arms and with all the big names that changed addresses, starting with Pau Gasol, it’s easy to forget that it was the rest of the NBA that was trying to catch up to the Spurs.

Dirk Nowitzki is a franchise player and was absolutely brilliant in this series. Unfortunately, and perhaps unfairly, he will receive his fair share of criticism for failing to advance despite being surrounded by what was perhaps his best supporting cast yet. But what is the Mavericks depth? Dirk Nowitzki is a franchise player but after him there is a precipitous drop in talent, which plateaus at a wealth of  above average talent spread throughout the roster. And even a wealth of above average talent is merely above average talent.

Who are the Maverick’s best three players? Who flanks Dirk Nowitzki? Jason Kidd is a future Hall of Fame player. Despite remaining a nightly triple-double threat, in an odd contradiction with what triple-doubles represent, Kidd is currently a one-dimensional player: brilliant in the open court, merely adequate or average at everything else.

After that, do you go with Jason Terry or Caron Butler? Players who made great sixth men and peaked as borderline All-Star players? Each currently excel at hitting contested, difficult pull-up jumpers and on good nights even a little more. Nice pieces to be sure, and the following point is made not to belittle their accomplishments, but…

Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are out of their league. Parker has established himself as one of the top five point guards in the NBA and peaked recently as an All-NBA player. Even in a reduced role, returning from his diminished state, Parker has shown he can still be capable of All-Star quality play.

In terms of impact and importance, Manu Ginobili is every bit the equivalent of Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki. Currently there are maybe three to five players who are elite closers in this league, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant being the obvious first two choices. But since March, it’s been hard to make a case for anyone over Manu Ginobili.

Schemes certainly play a role, but generally when a team has the best three players on the court it wins a seven game series. But if the Spurs are that talented, how do they consistently fly under the radar?

Gregg Popovich: Pounding the Rock and peaking at the right time

The San Antonio Spurs raising their game in the playoffs is a misnomer. The only magical switch at Gregg Popovich’s disposal is unleashing his final playoff rotation, removing all minute restraints and ensuring only his best players find time on the court.

Tim Duncan’s all-around brilliance is not necessarily heightened for the playoffs, it’s merely extended for longer minutes. Because Popovich, more than any other coach, caps the minutes of his best players, once the playoffs hit, there is no team that has a larger potential leap in performance than the Spurs.

Duncan and emerging star George Hill have seen the greatest increase in minutes, with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili holding serve. While the extra three to six additional minutes each player accumulates might not seem significant, it’s enough to keep the Spurs lesser players and harmful lineups off the court.

In comparison, the Dallas Mavericks play both Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd over 35 minutes a game in the regular season. So by the time the Playoffs come around, the Mavericks have not only already peaked long ago, but given Kidd’s age (and the lack of minutes for Rodrigue Beaubois) the extended regular season minutes may also mean diminishing returns.

To be fair, there are only three coaches in the NBA that enjoy enough job security to get away with something like that–Phil Jackson, Jerry Sloan and Gregg Popovich. Faced with the slowest start of the Tim Duncan era, Popovich received his fair share of criticism across message boards. But he’d also be the first person to tell you, should he ever bother to even read such things, that he doesn’t care.

Everything done through the regular season is done in preparation for a championship run, record be damned. As nice as it would have been to give Ian Mahinmi and Malik Hairston more developmental minutes, it was far more important to get Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson acclimated with the system because neither of the younger players were going to help you win a championship this year.

Antonio McDyess and Jefferson, with McDyess in particular, were quietly huge in the Spurs victory–something that doesn’t happen if they are still thinking their way through the San Antonio Spurs schemes. And those 20 minutes games Keith Bogans and Roger Mason logged over Hairston? Bogans might not be Bruce Bowen, but those 20 minute outings were great preparation for the brief cameos he made in the series, offering slightly better defense than Hairston without the inexperienced mistakes.

If the regular season is Gregg Popovich’s laboratory, a place to experiment and tinker with all his options, the NBA playoffs are his science fair and the Larry O’Brien Trophy his Nobel Prize.

George Hill as Element X: The versatility and flexibility of the San Antonio Spurs

While it is true the Dallas Mavericks have a lot of depth, much of it is redundant. In Eric Dampier and Brendan Haywood, the Mavericks go from a defensive center whose offense the Spurs don’t really have to respect to….a defensive center whose offensive game they did not really respect. For the series Butler and Terry created a plethora of pull-up jump shots but did not always get to the rim, which is sort of Dirk Nowitzki’s gig. Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion? Keep them out of transition and off the three-point line and they were essentially useless on offense.

Meanwhile, George Hill is becoming the San Antonio Spurs swiss army knife. As a defensive player, Hill is Gregg Popovich’s utility player. On offense, his ability to knock down shots on the move or in the corner fits as an additional puzzle piece as opposed to offering more of the same.

Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess fill out the starting lineup as solid glue guys, and Matt Bonner and DeJuan Blair offering vastly different skill sets of the bench.

But more than anything, it’s the diversity of Duncan, Ginobili and Parker together that delivered the death blow to the Mavericks. There is no one specific thing you can take away from any of the players, nor style you can force that will render each completely ineffective.

Even in the San Antonio Spurs Game 4 victory over the Mavericks, in which the big three had subpar games, it was the attention each drew that paved the way for George Hill to find his open three-pointers and their defense that made it possible.

The San Antonio Spurs concede that even the best defenses cannot take everything away, they simply limit options–often preferring to give up contested pull-up jump shots. In 2006, the overall Mavericks team might now have been as good overall, but it had multiple ways to attack: speed (Devin Harris), versatile scoring (Terry, Jerry Stackhouse), defense (Dampier, Diop), and, of course, Dirk Nowitzki.

Respect and retooling for the Dallas Mavericks

Despite the Spurs advantages and victory, there is a reason Gregg Popovich would prefer not to play this team again. Dirk Nowitzki is not merely a matchup problem for the San Antonio Spurs, he’s a nightmare for the entire NBA.

And while the sweet-shooting German could use more help–and thanks to some valuable non-gauranteed contracts and assets, it’s on its way–the surrounding Mavericks are good enough to keep the team in the game long enough for his greatness to win games. Which is how a team with their relatively disappointing point differential was able to obtain a second seed in the first place.

Given a summer to reflect and spend Mark Cuban’s money, the Dallas Mavericks playoffs might have ended, but the rivalry is far from over.

AT&T CENTER – A year ago, San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said about then-rookie George Hill, “these playoffs aren’t for George.” And through three playoff games this season, current Spurs rookie DeJuan Blair hadn’t done much to prove that this year’s playoffs fit him very well either.

But on Sunday night, Blair left his mark on the 2010 NBA Playoffs, providing the motor for a big second half in the Spurs 92-89 win in Game 4 against the Dallas Mavericks.

Blair scored seven points and hauled down seven rebounds in the contest, with most of his damage coming in a second half stretch that, after battling back from a 14-point third quarter deficit, helped the Spurs build a seven point lead at the end of the period.

“He reacted well for being such a young guy in a big playoff game,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said of Blair postgame. “He did a great job for us.”

Through four playoff games this year, Blair put up averages of 3.3 points and 4.5 rebounds per game in less than nine minutes per game. But his primary role is to bring energy off the bench and buy San Antonio some time to rest Tim Duncan.

And, apparently, show some toughness.

During the second half run that put the Spurs in control of of the game, Blair got tangled up with Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki after a free throw. Nowitzki seemed to swing his arm in the direction of Blair after getting tied up and was assessed a technical foul. Blair, for his participation, received a scolding from Spurs coach Gregg Popovich.

“It’s just Dirk being Dirk, me being me, and that’s not good,” Blair said. “I was smiling, I didn’t say nothing.”

The skirmish led to a physical stretch of play that featured three flagrant fouls, including a flagrant type 2 and the ejection of Mavericks forward Eduardo Najera, and the wonder if the game would get out of hand.

Luckily, it didn’t and the Spurs were able to make enough plays down the stretch to win the game and take a soul-crushing 3-1 lead in the series versus the Mavericks. The Spurs now have three opportunities to close out the series and face the winner of the Portland Trail Blazers – Phoenix Suns matchup.

And much of the credit goes to the energy and tenacity emanating from DeJuan Blair. Though his per game numbers don’t jump off the page, it’s not often that rookies feature prominently for playoff teams led by Gregg Popovich.

If the way Blair has responded to what’s been put on his plate this season is any indication, don’t expect this to be the last time The Beast leaves his prints on the playoffs.

AT&T Center–A game after Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle benched each of his team’s new acquisitions in the second half, the San Antonio Spurs turned to theirs with the trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker struggling.

Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich’s faith was aptly rewarded.

Antonio McDyess hit open jumpers, scoring 10 points while holding Dirk Nowitzki (17 points) to just 10 shots. Richard Jefferson took turns defending Nowitzki, Butler and Kidd while attacking the rim aggressively. DeJuan Blair added rebounding and energy. And George Hill’s newfound jump shot and poise carried the team to an improbable victory.

After a slow start and rough nights from their All-Stars, each of the San Antonio Spurs offseason acquisitions made a profound mark in a pivotal 29-11 third quarter to pull the Spurs out of a double  digit hole.

“If you look at just the numbers of (Duncan, Ginobili and Hill), you would definitely think we lost the game,” San Antonio Spurs forward Antonio McDyess said. “But that just means the rest of us have to step up.

“It was unbelievable how we came out in that second half and jumped on them and got this win.”

Celebrating his 34th birthday, Tim Duncan was not so fortunate as to have a night off, but rather an off night. Having dominated his one-on-one matchups in the first three games, the San Antonio Spurs big man shot 1-for-9 from the field and scored only four points.

The other members of the Spurs’ big three did not find things any easier, with Tony Parker scoring just 10 points and five turnovers and Manu Ginobili, playing with a broken nose, scoring 17 points but on 4-of-16 shooting from the field.

It was yet another odd victory, coming on the heels of a win where the San Antonio Spurs previously failed to make a three-pointer.

“I don’t know how improbable it is, you win or lose in different ways. Each game has its own characteristics and personality,” Popovich said. “We did make some three’s tonight and George Hill was something else.”

George Hill has been something else the entire season but has just now been able to put it all together in the NBA Playoffs.

The second year guard who got his first significant taste of playoff action on the wrong end of an elimination game last season now finds himself on the other side heading into Game 5 thanks to his 29-point performance.

Hill scored in a variety of ways, repeatedly driving past Dallas Mavericks point guard Jason Kidd, stepping behind screens for pull-up jump shots and, of course, nailing corner threes–all while playing stout defense on Kidd (10 points, 3-of-10 shooting).

“It’s confidence, last year prepared me for this year,” Hill said. “I was a very tough student last year, I was kind of disappointed we lost in the first round but it’s a learning thing and everything prepared me for this year.”

Learning on the fly this year, rookie DeJuan Blair found his comfort zone in a game that, as far as characteristics and personality go, was as physical and heated as any Popovich could remember in this longstanding rivalry.

With the physicality escalating, DeJuan Blair entered the game for Tim Duncan in the third quarter and matched blow for blow with each of the Mavericks big men, scoring seven points and seven rebounds while providing his own brand of chaos.

Getting tangled up with Dirk Nowitzki while jockeying for position on a free throw, it was the rookie who was able to maintain his composure while Nowitzki was hit with a technical for retaliating.

“It was just Dirk being Dirk, me being me, so that’s not good,” Blair joked. “It’s a heated series and in the heat of the moment that’s how it goes.”

The moment marked a weird turn of events that saw the technical, three flagrant fouls, and an ejection, all of which fueled the San Antonio Spurs who maintained the composure that was the hallmark of their championship seasons.

Meanwhile, Dallas Mavericks Dirk Nowitzki finds himself in the same place the San Antonio Spurs were last season–a single star searching for help from any of his teammates.

“You have to give Hill credit; he was unconscious from the 3-point line. McDyess made shots, Blair came in and had a big contribution. Richard Jefferson made some shots and big plays,” Nowitzki said. “The Spurs role players stepped up and had a good game.”

If the Dallas Mavericks cannot find the same from their acquisitions, they too will know how it feels to be on the wrong end of a 4-1 series loss.

The San Antonio Spurs will face the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the NBA playoffs. The basketball gods, in an act of esoteric vengeance, have charted a path to redemption that includes dinner and drinks with our demons.

Few people think the Mavs will handle the Spurs in the same tidy manner as they did last year, despite the fact that, at least according to the simplest statistic– winning percentage –the Mavericks are better than in ‘08-09 and the Spurs are worse.

The most glaring difference between last year and this year is the presence of Manu Ginobili. It would be a Herculean task to articulate why he is a game-changer for the Spurs. If you tried to draw a line around what he does well and the intensity with which he does it, You’d end up drawing an infinity sign.

And yet, as is always the case, Ginobili is not the point from which the team’s success will emanate. Just because Jupiter’s having a good day doesn’t make it the center of the solar system. If the Spurs are going to win this series, Tim Duncan needs to be a beast out there.

And that’s why I’m optimistic about the Spurs chances this series. I believe that, despite the slide in his level of play since All-Star break, Duncan will make it do what it do. He’s not going to be winning any fiddle contests with the devil, but his most underrated attribute is his indomitable spirit. When the Spurs lost last year, he was furious. I think he’s gonna let some of that fury out of the box.

Need I remind you that Duncan’s contributions during the ‘08-09 season took a similar turn around all-star break and, nonetheless, he played excellently during our brief trip to the postseason. Part of me wonders why I even need to make this point. All the doubters in the world don’t change the fact that he’s Tim Duncan.

Alright, let’s put the strained allusions and creeping deism aside and get down to the nitty gritty. There’s a lot of reasons why the Spurs are better prepared to counter the Mavericks’ style and talent than they were last season.

Throughout last year’s series our woefully shallow bench was exposed by the likes of J.J. Barea and Ryan Hollins.  With the continued maturation of George Hill and the deus ex machina that is DeJuan Blair, I’m confident our depth can now match, if not surpass, theirs.

There are some lingering questions as to who exactly will make up our second unit, the most prominent of which is who will start, Hill or Parker? Originally the combination of Parker’s rust and a concern for offensive consistency relegated him to the bench, but when Hill aggravated his strained right tendon on Wednesday, that approach required reconsideration.

Personally, if Hill is healthy, I’d rather him start. I like the idea of allowing Parker to come in with the second unit, where his ball-dominant tendencies can  flourish. But if Barea proves to be the annoyance he was last year, I could envision Pop coupling Hill’s minutes more closely with his. Either way, the most important thing to know is, unlike last year, we’ve got options.

The Mavericks also have options. A lot of options. I’d argue that Dallas possesses the most versatile lineup in the NBA.

When the Mavericks traded for Caron Butler, like mostly everyone, I considered the move to be aggressive yet savvy. Against nearly every team in the league it makes the Mavs more competitive. Except the Spurs. I say that because Josh Howard caused San Antonio all kinds of problems, while our defensive schemes are more naturally tailored to counter Butler’s offensive skills.

To be honest, I’m more concerned about the impact of Shawn Marion than I am Caron Butler. Marion is the x-factor. He is one of the most versatile defenders in the league and could be seen covering anyone from Manu Ginobili to Richard Jefferson to Antonio McDyess to Tim Duncan. Although he is hardly the most important player on the floor, the success of Marion’s defensive efforts could be one of the most accurate barometers of this series.

A less accurate barometer will be the play of Dirk Nowitzki. Win or lose, Dirk is going to play well. His scoring ability is transcendent. And yet, many people overestimate his effectiveness against the Spurs. If you remember correctly, the Spurs successfully harassed Nowitzki into a comparatively mediocre series last year. By throwing everyone from Tim Duncan to Matt Bonner to Bruce Bowen to George Hill at him, Pop never allowed Dirk to find a rhythm.

A similar strategy could work this time as well, although we need to couple that with a greater concern for the Mavericks perimeter shooting. The ferocity with which we focused on Dirk backfired at moments, as he was able to pass out of a packed interior, back into the arms of awaiting shooters such as the two Jasons. One could argue that last years series was lost outside the 3-point arc (at the time I certainly did).

It’s worth noting that harassing Dirk for three quarters won’t get the job done. There may be no one in the entire association whose ability to take over a game during crunch time scares me more than Dirk Nowitzki.

In closing, I’d like to leave you with the thoughts of my good friend and colleague Rob Mahoney, who, over the next couple of weeks, will be the opposing camp’s voice of reason:

This series is going to be excellent. I’m talking 2006 Western Conference semifinals excellent. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether or not this series is going to go the distance, but based on how Dallas and San Antonio match up, I’d honestly be shocked if there was a single blowout. We’re looking at at least six games of stellar, well-executed, well-coached, and entertaining basketball.

As for my prediction: Spurs in 7, which is basically the equivalent of me shrugging my shoulders and sayin’ “let’s give ‘em hell.”

The NBA playoffs open up with the San Antonio Spurs in their lowest playoff seeding of the Tim Duncan Era. But to understand why the Spurs are not discouraged about opening on the road in Dallas, instead of the friendly confines of the AT&T Center, there must first be an understanding of their philosophy.

San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich and his team operate under a different philosophy than the rest of the world. Rather than living, dying or overreacting to every win or loss, the Spurs continue to chip away and build towards something.

“When nothing seems to help, I go look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred and first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not that blow that did it, but all that had gone before.”

Earlier in the season, around the trade deadline, I made an argument for the San Antonio Spurs holding steady to their current roster–something that, for better or worse, happened minus a Theo Ratliff or Michael Finley. Then I ventured to say that the Spurs were still championship contenders, even if Tim Duncan and company were not following the usual script.

The point I would make in my argument for keeping the team intact would be that each season, just as each stone, is different. Just because the plaque states on the hundredth and first blow the stone split in two does not mean every stone will break in 101 blows. Some take longer, especially when working with unfamiliar tools. Follow the process, however, and the results end up satisfactory more often than not.

A tough first round match-up with the Dallas Mavericks makes it hard to vindicate those words just yet, but there is a lot to learn sifting through the 82 blows the San Antonio Spurs have struck so far–each one is relevant, connected to the ones that came before it, and will affect what lies ahead.

Strike no. 24: The Science Was Sound, Richard Jefferson was not

The biggest story of the offseason, Richard Jefferson struggled and, perhaps unfairly, caught the blame for the brunt of the Spurs disappointments in early February, prompting everyone to label the trade a bust, as written byTimothy Varner:

But as the Richard Jefferson trade has shown, basketball is not all science. It’s science, some stuff you can’t quantify and luck. And the Richard Jefferson trade has failed on the last two accounts. No sense in pretending the world is round, when we all know it’s flat. Or some such.

But was it fair to expect a player, groomed in the Princeton offense and comfortable as a first or second option, to step in a impact a team right away? Perhaps early expectations pushed aside common sense.

Strike no. 1: The Two Week Reload, Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair and Antonio McDyess

A personal note from Graydon Gordian back in September:

And yet as I watched Spurs, both old and new, smile and nod, I got excited. Not just excited. Ecstatic. The season is approaching. Do you realize that? The 2009-10 season. Richard Jefferson. DeJuan Blair. Manu Ginobili. Those are just a few of the guys who are gonna be dressed in silver and black with a ball in their hand, a hoop in either direction and glistening hardwood beneath their feet.

Graydon’s sentiments were mirrored by Spurs fans everywhere, and why not? Over the course of a few weeks the San Antonio Spurs traded for Richard Jefferson, drafted DeJuan Blair and signed Antonio McDyess.

But as Timothy’s piece from earlier alluded to, chemistry might look good on paper, but you cannot be 100 percent sure how variables will react together until it’s tested out in the lab.

Strike no. 53: Standing Still, Richard Jefferson Struggles

In short, handing the ball to Jefferson at a standstill against a set defense was never going to work.

Does that mean I believe the San Antonio Spurs front office was short sighted in acquiring such a poor fit? Without any insight into the team’s line of thinking, what makes sense is that if the team was not going to move Jefferson around it could at least move the defense.

In last year’s playoff series against the Mavericks, Tony Parker was able to collapse their entire defense. Only, with the rest of the supporting cast being nothing but spot-up shooters, Dallas was able to sell out in chasing shooters off the three-point line without fear of anyone outside of Parker getting to the rim.

In theory, even in a pick and roll offense Jefferson should be able to exploit the scrambling defense created by Parker and Ginobili’s penetration. Rotating defenders create opportunistic driving lanes.

Not being a primary creator, Jefferson’s production is a great indicator of how well or poorly Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili are playing. So where did things initially go wrong?

Strike no. 9: The New Realities of Tony Parker

Tony Parker has plantar fasciitis.

Strike no. 20: Whether All-Star or Role Player, Ginobili Key to San Antonio Spurs Success

There are worries about extending Ginobili, to be sure. If it was a matter of being out of rhythm or out of shape, those are things that one would expect to be remedied. But the craftiness, the instincts and skill set all seem to be in place. It’s an inability to get to the rim or finish–his FG% at the rim is 50%, down  from 66% and 64% the last two seasons according to hoopdata.com–once there that would indicate a physical decline. While those gifts could return to a certain extent, his age and recent history make it hard to know what to expect from him.

Strike no. 37: The Roots of Defensive Decline

At the heart of the piece linked above is the debate on the merits of small ball, something that has slowly disappeared from Gregg Popovich’s lineups. In Varner’s piece, he uses quotes from George Karl to punctuate his point.

“Defensively, they are not a dominant defensive team as they once were. They used to be incredible around the basket. You now can score around the basket on them more than ever before. But they’re still solid. They’re still sound, conceptually. (Pop) has tricks, he can mess with you. But they were so good for so many years.

We chart our baskets within five feet of the basket every night. Halftime, I’d go in there against SA and we’d be 2 for 15. They just wouldn’t let you score around the basket. That’s different now.

They used to play two bigs. Now you can take Duncan away from the basket. You can take their bigs away and attack their smalls a little more. You take Duncan in the pick and roll, you’ve got Bonner, or McDyess or Blair covering the basket. That’s just not as good as it was when it was David Robinson, or Nesterovic or Mohammed or someone like that.”

While there is some truth to this, in years past the San Antonio Spurs have been able to retain their defensive identity even while going small. In 2003, David Robinson may have been the starter, but Malik Rose logged heavy minutes next to Tim Duncan.

Important as it is to have quality defenders, defense is a system, not a collection of athletes. The San Antonio Spurs supporting players were all new to Popovich’s defensive schemes, which are perhaps the most complex in the NBA. The result–the new acquisitions at times looked inept.

Ultimately, it’s not really the rising age of their core which has contributed to the team’s decline. The core is still playing well enough to lead a better-fitted supporting cast to a title.  But the current supporting cast does not share in the team’s previous defensive identity: they lack (or don’t play) the additional shot-blocking bigs of past lineups; Robert Horry’ offense was replaced, but not his defense; Bruce Bowen’s defense was invaluable, and better than imagined.

With hindsight as a weapon, I can now say that at the time the core was not playing up to their elite standards. And how can a new role player, brought in to fit around the trio of Duncan, Ginobili and Parker, be expected to fulfill their roles when those three do not measure up to their lofty standards?

So what’s changed, and why do the Spurs feel better going intot the playoffs this year as a seven see than last year as a third seed against the same opponent?

Strikes no. 20, 57-71 and 74-77: Whether All-Star or Role Player, Ginobili Key to Spurs Success

Since February, Manu Ginobili hasn’t been chipping away at the rock so much as he’s alternated between taking a sledge hammer and wrecking ball to it.

As the San Antonio Spurs struggled through February, Ginobili was slowly finding his rhythm, getting to the rim even as he still struggled to find his shot. While that early production did not initially translate into wins, it was enough to hint at the things to come, as I wrote in a piece titled, “Ginobili!”:.

Ginobili healthy is the ultimate x-factor. As I’ve written before, he is the lone Spurs player to work outside its system. The artistry and impulsiveness makes the Spurs unpredictable and really holds everything else together.

Through that time, Ginobili turned the elite teams of the NBA into fodder for his personal highlight reel.

El contusion blocked Kevin Garnett. He blocked Kevin Durant (and walked on water). And after wins over the Thunder, Magic, Cavaliers and Lakers, it became apparent that Ginobili was back.

AT&T Center–For all of Manu Ginobili’s strengths, perhaps no attribute is more significant than his indelible sense of the moment and ability to take full control of it.

Strike no. 56: Pop to Manu re: Jefferson, “Can you fix him for me?”

And as insightful as those Ginobili numbers are, they barely tell the story. Manu Ginobili is making everyone better, most noticeably the previously pronounced dead on arrival Richard Jefferson. Jefferson is openly campaigning for heavy minutes alongside Manu Ginobili. It’s almost as if Gregg Popovich turned to Manu and said, “I can’t figure this guy out. Can you fix him for me?” And then Ginobili grabbed Jefferson by the hand, walked into a nearby phone booth, and emerged in Superman garb. Jefferson can be seen just behind Ginobili, with a fistful of cape.

With Ginobilij back, for the first time all season the Spurs received All-NBA quality play from more than one of its big three, enabling the the Spurs role players to quietly fall into place.

Strike no. 55: Matt Bonner, Beyond the +/-

In Duncan, Ginobili and Parker, the Spurs have a trio of stars that excel at both scoring and generating shots for teammates. The flipside is, for all Duncan’s length, Ginobili’s craftiness or Parker’s speed, none are particularly explosive leapers, thus each requires sufficient space to work at peak levels (Ginobili less so).

And not all spacing is equal. It is important to consider what part of the defense is stretched thin and what section of the floor the three-point shooting  is coming from. Pulling a big man out of the lane is much more valuable than keeping wings and guards at home. It changes the dynamics of defensive sets and rotations.

Strikes no. 45 and 82: DeJuan Blair as Oberto

In this morning’s Express-News, Jeff McDonald and Manu Ginobili pick up the same conversation.

“I played with Fabricio for over 10 years,” said Ginobili, who first met Oberto when they were teenagers in Argentina. “He knew exactly how I wanted the screens. He had a passion for setting screens like I’ve never seen.

…Blair and Ginobili are only in the courtship phase of their relationship, but they pick and roll like an old married couple. With Ginobili supplying the trick-shot passes, and Blair producing the kind of slick catches and nimble finishes that belie his 6-foot-7, 270-pound frame, the Spurs’ second unit often has become must-see theater.

Where Oberto was a Hall of Fame pick-setter, Blair has proven himself adept at the other half of the equation.

“He’s a really good roller,” Ginobili said. “I know he’s going to be attacking the rim. That’s something you can count on, even when you don’t see him.”

Strikes no. 3, 17, 72, 73 and 78-80: George Hill is the NBA’s Most Improved Player

When San Antonio Spurs point guard George Hill (an Indiana native) returns to the American Airlines Center for the first round of the NBA Playoffs, the court and its dimensions will remain as they were in last year’s playoffs. It will be George Hill who has changed.

“Oh, what wonders one summer with Chip Engelland can do. It may be a small sample size, but judging by the blistering shooting percentages, George Hill can shoot. From deep. Especially from the corner. Now, a lot of attention will be paid to his development as a point guard, and rightfully so. Hill finally looks comfortable there. But the most important development for him, so far as his future with the Spurs is concerned, is his jump shot.

You see, if Hill is to carve out more than cameo appearances in meaningful games it will have to be as more than a backup point guard because there’s no way you’re limiting Tony Parker’s minutes come Spring and Summer. So if Hill is going to be an impact as a Spurs player he needs to be able to play beside Parker rather than replacing him. For years the only prerequisite for that, at least offensively, is the corner three.”

Strike no. 41: What Would Jacob Riis Do? Winning a Title

Back in February I believed this group of San Antonio Spurs were capable of competing for an NBA championship. After the gauntlet they ran through in March, there has been very little to change my opinion.

In that piece, I wrote a few things that had to happen should the Spurs decide to stay the course.

The first step, I believe, was the reintroduction of Antonio McDyess into the starting lineup. Without Bruce Bowen in the lineup it has become increasingly difficult for the Spurs to contain penetration (whether it be Hill or Parker defending). As such, having another presence capable of altering shots is imperative and a step towards returning to our previous defensive philosophies.

“Antonio’s defensive rebounding has really picked up. He’s always been able to shoot an open jump shot so that’s not a surprise. But his rebounding and defense have been excellent,” San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said. “He’s really been doing a lot of that grunt work on the boards. So he’s been doing real good for us.”

The rest of the San Antonio Spurs have since bought into Gregg Popovich’s defensive schemes, and it shows.

“(The defensive improvement) is just the persistence of Pop sticking with what we do and it’s finally started to click for everybody,” Tim Duncan said. “It took a month or two longer than we thought it would, but it’s headed in the right direction.”

The final piece, I believe, will be the return to prominence of either Manu Ginobili or Tony Parker as devastating scorers. Last playoffs the Spurs were exposed when none of the role players were able to do anything once Parker or Duncan broke down the defense.

This season the Spurs have a myriad of players capable of taking advantage of a broken defense. The only problem is that Ginobili and Parker have been ordinary enough as scorers that defenses have been more apt to stay at home.

Whether through rest or just continued rehabilitation, one of the two will break through eventually and take the games of our role players (Richard Jefferson, McDyess, Hill and Blair) to new levels.

How do I know this? Because if both fail, there isn’t a trade the Spurs could pull off that would provide a big enough hammer to break this stone.

Strikes No. 83-101

Begin Sunday in Dallas.

You’re right, it’s not that simple, but Winston raises several interesting points. Here’s how the Spurs will beat the Mavericks, stat geek style.

Tiago Splitter is known for his high ball-IQ and sweet lowpost moves. But what about defense? Well, the opponent scores 11,51 points less per 70 possessions when he is on the court, and 5.7 percent worse on field goals. Might also have to do with the mediocre defense his backup, Stanko Barac, plays.

(Poor Stanko, always the foil.)

Last summer M. Haubs made a prescient comment. After watching Tiago Splitter compete in the World Games, Haubs wondered whether his absence from the Spurs’ roster might be the difference between them and the Lakers. Splitter, he contends, is the world’s best center not playing in the NBA.

Despite yesterday’s victory over the Lakers, I finished the game with an abiding worry.

DeJuan Blair played a mere 9 minutes in the Spurs’ victory. His lack of height is a problem against the Lakers, who, remember, were without Andrew Bynum. The Spurs’ bigman rotation against the Lakers is, more or less, Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner. That’s problematic.

Problematic enough to make me bemoan Ian Mahinmi’s lack of development and Tiago Splitter’s absence. San Antonio could use their size against the league’s elite teams. It’s a subject for another day, but Blair’s 6’7” frame is not something Gregg Popovich can fix. Blair is a workhouse and willing competitor, and he’s certain to maximize his defensive ability against players like Gasol. But Gasol uses his height and length so well, there is only so much DeJuan Blair can do.

Offensively, he [Blair] has the best in-air balance of anyone on the team not named Tony Parker. Blair is a case study of how to properly transform hard contact into shooting space. And his understanding of space is remarkable for such a young player. Strangely enough, Blair reminds me of Fabricio Oberto in his uncanny ability to move into empty space around the hoop and dutifully present himself to the passer. This helps explain why Blair and Ginobili play so well together. DeJuan is practically Argentinean.

In this morning’s Express-News, Jeff McDonald and Manu Ginobili pick up the same conversation.

“I played with Fabri for over 10 years,” said Ginobili, who first met Oberto when they were teenagers in Argentina. “He knew exactly how I wanted the screens. He had a passion for setting screens like I’ve never seen.

…Blair and Ginobili are only in the courtship phase of their relationship, but they pick and roll like an old married couple. With Ginobili supplying the trick-shot passes, and Blair producing the kind of slick catches and nimble finishes that belie his 6-foot-7, 270-pound frame, the Spurs’ second unit often has become must-see theater.

Where Oberto was a Hall of Fame pick-setter, Blair has proven himself adept at the other half of the equation.

“He’s a really good roller,” Ginobili said. “I know he’s going to be attacking the rim. That’s something you can count on, even when you don’t see him.”

That’s an excerpt, and the rest of the article is worth your time. But for now we’ll consider the matter settled: DeJuan Blair is one part Fabricio Oberto, one part Carl Landry.

]]> http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/03/04/blair-as-oberto/feed/ 46 http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/20/philadelphia-76ers-106-san-antonio-spurs-94/ http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/20/philadelphia-76ers-106-san-antonio-spurs-94/#comments Sat, 20 Feb 2010 16:08:42 +0000 Timothy Varner http://www.48minutesofhell.com/?p=6569 When a team is playing well, it typically moves from lesser to greater certainty as the season progresses. All the big questions that lead the season find a satisfactory resolution in a sharp player rotation, efficient scoring, and a defense that can, at least, get the necessary stops that winning requires. Those things come together, and plenty more aside. It’s a process of refinement.

The San Antonio Spurs are the same curious lump of clay that began the season, more shapeless than molded, and more or less stuck with the same questions that hounded them back in October. And where they have answers (Will Richard Jefferson fit? Can they stay healthy?), there is cause for discouragement.

Jeff McDonald offered this fitting description of last night’s loss, “Doomed by another spectacular fourth-quarter meltdown, the Spurs lost 106-94 to the Sixers, another frustrating lowlight in their two-steps-forward, one-step-back campaign.” The only quibble I would register is over the two forward, one back thing. The Spurs, to my mind, are walking in place. And in doing so, their legs are beginning to tire.

Tony Parker only played 29 minutes on 1-9 shooting. Maybe he shouldn’t have played at all. Between a strained hip flexor and plantar fasciitis, Parker is a shadow of himself.  His Kobe Bryant routine is admirable, but when Bryant plays through injuries his team has the good manners to win.

Parker’s status against Detroit in uncertain, but Gregg Popovich should give strong consideration to letting Parker rest.

The only thing we can know from last night’s loss is that the Spurs are not a good basketball team. They’re mired in mediocrity; they’re not healthy.

In the past one could say San Antonio’s opponent shot 51% from the field, and then qualify it as an aberration. And while Philadelphia did connect on 51% of its baskets last night, the only qualifier is to say it could have been worse. The 76ers at rim eFG% was 76.7%. In other words, they scored at rim at will, especially in transition.

In light of Tony Parker’s struggles, the team will need scoring from elsewhere in the coming games. Against the 76ers, Tim Duncan shot poorly, something that is increasingly common as the season stretches toward a close. But on most nights one would expect him to score on better than 40% of his shot attempts. And to attempt more than 10 shots.

The question is who will score in Tony Parker’s absence, assuming he misses games or sees fewer minutes. The ideal situation would be for Richard Jefferson to find his game, but he’s given little indication that he’s capable of scoring regularly within the Spurs’ offense. A more likely scenario is increased minutes for Manu Ginobili, George Hill and DeJuan Blair. Against the 76ers each of those players contributed more than one point per possession used (1.08, 1.24, and 1.07, respectively). Although, DeJuan Blair played a curiously short 16 minutes.  But I’d wager that some combination of that threesome picks up the scoring slack.

Tomorrow’s game against Detroit concludes the Rodeo Road Trip. But, if the previous game is any indicator, we’re not likely to know anything more leaving than going in.

]]> http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/20/philadelphia-76ers-106-san-antonio-spurs-94/feed/ 48 http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/ http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/#comments Wed, 17 Feb 2010 16:03:16 +0000 Timothy Varner http://www.48minutesofhell.com/?p=6511 Wayne Winston, who served as a statistical consultant to the Dallas Mavericks for the last nine years, and is the author of Mathletics, was kind enough to explore a handful of Spurs-related questions with me. Over the next few days I’ll put up a series of short posts detailing the more salient moments of our exchange.

At the outset of our conversation, Winston quickly pointed toward Tony Parker’s plantar fasciitis as the first place to start when discussing San Antonio’s underwhelming start. He referred to this as a “major issue.” Beyond this, however, Winston said “if the Spurs rotated through these lineups, they would be great.”

Winston made his mark with the Mavericks by studying these sort of things and making recommendations to their coaching staff and front office. This is his wheelhouse.

A few observations:

• Other than Roger Mason Jr.’s appearance in the final suggested lineup, it seems that the Spurs could move on quite easily without him. The same is true for another of their expiring contracts, Michael Finley.
• Matt Bonner, on the other hand, remains an adjusted plus/minus champ. At this point, it’s impossible to deny his usefulness to the Spurs. There he is again, popping up in two of San Antonio’s best five court combinations. If the Spurs move his expiring contract before deadline, they could feel the loss.
• If the Spurs are playing well, Manu Ginobili is typically involved.
• One wonders if Richard Jefferson is such a fixture because he’s secretly helpful or because he plays such heavy minutes? Given the current roster, his minutes are safe. Even when Jefferson is playing poorly, he’s San Antonio’s best option at his position.
• Antonio McDyess is a much bigger part of San Antonio’s good play than previously suspected; DeJuan Blair deserves to be on the court.
• If San Antonio trades Matt Bonner and/or Antonio McDyess, they’re essentially starting from scratch with their frontcourt rotation. The lineups suggested by Winston could justify simply increasing their playing time, and not giving so many minutes over to small-ball. In other words, the Spurs aren’t necessarily stuck if they can’t land a trade.

Your thoughts?

From where I stand, the situation is clear. It may be hard to stomach, but that does not affect its veracity.

The Spurs are not going to win a title as currently constituted. To some this may seem obvious, to others overly pessimistic. Either way it is clear to me that not a single member of the Spurs is playing at the level necessary to win a title. It takes not one or two, but several very talented players executing at a high level to hoist banners, and there is nothing that currently suggests that critical mass of execution is achievable.

There is not a trade that the Spurs can make that lifts them into contention this season. The problems this team is facing are very deeply entrenched and one, even two significant roster shakeups would not have the dramatic impact necessary to thrust the team back into the league’s top tier. Even if we somehow made a move that undeniably improved the level of talent on our roster, I agree with Gregg Popovich: “We’ve never had a group like this that didn’t gel, as far as being consistent night after night. I think if we change this person for that person, we’d still have the same problem.”

That being said, the Spurs may still be able to win a title during the Tim Duncan era, and can certainly win one in the next five years. But in order for that to happen, they must start making moves that are focused on the future. And not the near future. Their intention needs to be to contend two or three years down the line, not this season or even next.

In other words, I think it is time to start rebuilding.

There are three players that I am unwilling to trade: Tim Duncan, George Hill, and DeJuan Blair. In my opinion everyone else, to differing degrees, is on the table.

Tim Duncan is not on the table because he is the entire franchise and the greatest power forward of all time.

George Hill and DeJuan Blair are not on the table because they are young, cheap, and the only players on the roster that I can confidently say are going to play better next season than this season. A key element of rebuilding is adding young talent, not shipping it off.

Beyond that, anyone is up for discussion. Tony Parker. Manu Ginobili. Definitely Richard Jefferson.

Given the scale of what I am proposing, the trade possibilities are practically endless. So here are some rough guidelines I’d be interested in seeing the front office follow.

I think the goal should be acquiring young, developing players. Players who it is safe to assume have their best seasons still ahead of them. Certainly not anyone who will be thirty or over in two years. If we have to get a slightly older player in order to get a young prospect (For instance, Richard Jefferson for Corey Maggette and Anthony Randolph) that is acceptable, but the focus needs to be on young talent.

We need to commit ourselves to this strategy; any concerns that our team might get worse in the short term need to be thrown out the window. Getting worse now is not the goal- as I’ll explain in a moment I don’t think we should tank purposefully -but if it is a byproduct of a long term move, so be it.

This may sound strange, but the season has gone too well so far to tank. Fifty games into the season the Spurs are eight games over .500. I don’t think there are enough wounds the team could self-inflict that would move us far enough down the ladder to get a meaningful draft pick. If we miss the playoffs and get a lottery pick in the mid-first round, great. If we have a tidy little first round exit at the hands of the Lakers or Mavericks, well, that’s fine too. A brief trip to the postseason this year won’t dramatically affect our ability to rebuild.

We need to reconsider our approach to the draft. We need to stop trading away our draft picks, or at the very least not trade them away lightly. We need to stop drafting and stashing; we need to continue to make picks in the mold of George Hill and DeJuan Blair, picks whose value is clear within the first season or two.

And lastly, we need to be honest about the trade value of the various players on the team.

Richard Jefferson’s trade value is very low, but if it is possible to move him, the Spurs should pull the trigger. As we all know, it may not be possible to move him, at least not without getting bloodied in the process. And we shouldn’t be so anxious to move him that we load ourselves down with an undesirable, long term contract. Jefferson’s contract expires after next season. Worst case scenario: We just let it expire.

I know a few of you will be waiting out back for me with pitchforks when you read this, but here it goes: We need to trade Manu Ginobili. He has not played well enough this year to merit a new contract, and given his trajectory over the last three seasons, there is no reason to believe he will be able to play with any consistency over the coming years. Manu Ginobili has a $10.7 million expiring contract. We need to use that aggressively.

Along with Ginobili, we need to be willing to ship out Roger Mason Jr., Matt Bonner, Michael Finley, Keith Bogans, Theo Ratliff, and Ian Mahinmi in whatever combination brings back the most young talent. If we can attach a few of those to Richard Jefferson in order to make him palatable to other teams, so be it.

As the youngest member of the big three, Tony Parker is the most likely to be a force in the coming seasons, but that does not mean his name should be off the table entirely. Parker is arguably the oldest 27-year-old in the league, having played professional basketball in France before arriving in the NBA and having made several deep playoff runs during his career. If a team is willing to move a young all-star caliber player (Chris Paul, Devin Harris, Danny Granger), I am willing to discuss the idea of using Tony Parker as the centerpiece of such a trade.

For the time being Antonio McDyess is unlikely to be moved, as he has both underachieved this season and his contract does not effectively expire until the end of next season (his contract extends through 2011-12, but the third year is not guaranteed).

Does this mean Tim Duncan will retire with only four rings? I think no matter what we do, that is likely. But for those who say we owe it to Duncan to try to win another title, I think this gives the Spurs the best chance of doing so. Duncan is still an all-star caliber player, one of the best big men in the league. But he used to move mountains; now he is just very good at basketball. I think he can still be the centerpiece of a championship caliber team, but once upon a time he was Atlas- he could carry the world on his shoulders. Those days are no more. If we want to win another title, we will need to surround Duncan with more talent than ever before. The Spurs as currently constructed are not going to get it done.

There is no dignity in dying a slow painful death as a member of the pack. If we aren’t getting better, we are getting worse. It’s time to make some radical changes. The window has closed on this incarnation of the Spurs, but Tim Duncan and the rest of the franchise are in a position to rebound from this disappointing season.