But during the Clippers’ 108-92 loss to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the teams’ second round playoff series, pushing the pace (thanks to a few Spurs turnovers) was all Los Angeles could do to slow down the freight train of execution that is the silver and black.

The Clippers outscored the Spurs 17-6 on fast break points and had a puncher’s chance of beating the Western Conference’s #1 seed. But a 30-23 third quarter advantage for the Spurs, in which the Clips didn’t net a single fast break point, created enough separation for San Antonio’s deep rotation to take a one game advantage in the series.

“We were a little sluggish at the beginning, especially at the defensive end,” Manu Ginobili said. “Then we picked up and from the second quarter on we improved.”

After a 29-29 tie in the first period, the Spurs had advantages of eight and seven points in the next two quarters, taking a 87-72 lead into the fourth.

Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, however, didn’t quite agree with Manu’s assessment.

“Just because we won the game tonight doesn’t mean we played good defense,” Coach Pop said postgame.

While Pop is correct, the Spurs’ transition defense needs to improve greatly, the team’s half court defense was very effective. San Antonio held the Clippers to 41% shooting in the half court. That’s really good. That’s old school, it’s-still-called-the-SBC-Center good.

Friend of 48MoH Sebastian Pruiti pointed out on Twitter last night that the Spurs held Chris Paul to .778 points per possession on side pick-and-rolls in Game 1. These are possessions that Chris Paul finishes the play as the ball handler, whether it ends in a shot, assist, turnover, foul, etc. As Pruiti also pointed out, the Spurs were so good at defending it in the first half that the Clips ran that type of play only once in the second half.

Trends from Game 1 are pointing to an impending doom for the Clippers. If they can’t score in the half court, but don’t traditionally push the pace enough to score a lot in transition, what do they do? Play the starters more?

That may not be the answer. The Spurs starters had an offensive rating of 138.1 in Game 1 (138.1 points per 100 possessions). The Clippers starters had a defensive rating of 129 (129 points allowed per 100 possessions) and just a 100 OffRtg.

The Spurs had several days to prepare for the Clippers, far longer than Los Angeles had to recover from simply getting out of the first round. And while not all was perfect for the Spurs in Game 1, they’ve laid the foundation a short series by not only earning a 1-0 lead, but by taking away the Clippers strengths and leaving them with weapons not strong enough to strike a fatal blow.

AT&T CENTER–Sixteen years separate the San Antonio Spurs oldest and youngest playoff participants, yet to gaze at their equally stone-faced facades is to be convinced that the two had been somehow separated at birth.

Be it approach, demeanor, or facial expressions, there’s not much difference between the battle tested Tim Duncan and rookie Kawhi Leonard. Duncan, a little more versatile in his old age, can make his eyes bigger; Leonard seemingly struggles to even blink. Neither are likely to betray whatever thoughts may be crossing their minds at any given time.

“It’s impossible [to tell what he's thinking],” Manu Ginobili said of Leonard. “He’s always under control, he never gets very upset. He doesn’t get too hyped up. He just plays.”

But does he ever smile?

“Never for more than a second,” Ginobili said. “Maybe a quarter of a second.”

If one shows joy, they may also show frustration, and an opponent must never be allowed to sense frustration. It’s a philosophy that has served Duncan and the Spurs well throughout an NBA career in which which he has proven as unflappable as he has great.

In a game that was at times equal parts sloppy and chaotic, it was Duncan (26 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks and two steals) and Leonard (16 points on 5-8 shooting, six rebounds, and three steals) that served as steadying hands.

While the offense came out potent (108 points on 48.8 percent shooting), one could hardly call it sharp with 18 turnovers yielding 17 fast break points. A week of rest had made the Spurs spry, but not without accumulating a little bit of rust.

The Los Angeles Clippers came out with an energy and physicality that belied the grueling stretch of games they just experienced a few days ago. As tends to happen from time to time, Duncan missed a few easy shots and was dunked on. With the same blank stare on his face Duncan calmly collected himself and simply went to work.

“Just like I said before the game we knew it was going to take a while to knock that rust off,” Duncan said. “I missed some shots early and then I got a couple to go. My teammates moved the ball really well and I got a couple layups.”

Behind some tenacious ball pressure applied by Chris Paul and Eric Bledsoe the Clippers were able to effectively corral Tony Parker for stretches of the game. The turnovers generated were somewhat reminiscent of last year’s playoff series with Memphis, with everyone but Parker being harassed so badly they couldn’t even turn their head to see where their screen was coming from for fear of being stripped clean.

Never burdened by being asked to carry too much, or bothered when asked to step aside, Duncan provided a vintage performance.

When the ball pressure proved too much for his teammates in pick and rolls, Duncan provided the perfect release valve, reversing the ball quickly, hitting the midrange jumper (3-8), or rolling into open space for a quick layup. When the Spurs offense devolved into a mess of turnovers and poor decisions, Duncan returned to his old stomping grounds on the blocks and steadied the Spurs attack.

“Tim was solid as usual, he’s played like that all year long,” Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said. “He’s not going to do anything that’s going to be on a highlight film for TV. A highlight film for coaches possibly.

“He was just being solid, making a great pass, playing the defense that he did, rebounding, he was the anchor.”

These are the kind of performances we’ve come to expect from Tim Duncan even as age has tempered our expectations.

Leonard, however, entered these playoffs as an unknown quantity. And though the depths of his game are as of yet undefined, he’s proving at the very least that no stage is too big for him.

“He’s been a real dedicated player, a quicker learner,” Popovich said. “He’s done a good enough job to make me trust him in the starting lineup.”

It’s hard not to trust Leonard. In a rookie season learning one of the most complicate systems in the NBA, for one of its most demanding coaches, Leonard has thrived without so much as a training camp or adequate practice time.

For a rookie, he’s lacked the extreme peaks and valleys that ail most players going through their first NBA seasons. Instead Leonard has moved through the season at his own steady pace, never stopping to admire his work or lament his mistakes.

Leonard finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting, but how many 20 years olds have the temerity to be thwarted on three consecutive fast break attempts–one of which was a vicious chase down block by Blake Griffin–and then calmly hit his next three-pointer as if nothing happened?

The Clippers attacked Leonard at times, producing a rare night in which Caron Butler had more points than jab steps. But whether it was recovering on a screen to block Chris Paul from behind, the two huge rebounds he pulled down in the fourth, or simply deflecting a pass, Kawhi Leonard made plays happen.

“He seems to have a pretty good knack for the ball. He makes a steal here and there, he’ll get an offensive board here and there, he’ll get a block now and then,” Popovich said. “Obviously he’s a rookie still figuring out what his game is, but he does things that help win basketball games.”

And like Duncan before him, he does so without so much as a hint of a expression.

Coming into this series, it will be fun to speculate whether Parker or Paul will win “the matchup”.  ”The winner of that matchup….so go the series…,” some will say. The problem, of course, is that matchup doesn’t exist—at least not in the hero ball sense.  Paul vs. Parker is not a Hollywood boxing bout.  It isn’t even a true blue Castillo-Corrales slug fest. It’s a paper tiger.

Within their program, the Spurs prefer to feature wings who can defend multiple positions. Bruce Bowen is the historic standard,  but the Spurs regularly use Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green,  Manu Ginobili, and Stephen Jackson to defend multiple positions. Ginobili might be deployed against 1s, 2s, and 3s; Jackson against 2s, 3s, and 4s. And so on. This doesn’t make the Spurs entirely unique, but it does point to one of the more intriguing matchups of the series: Danny Green vs. Chris Paul.

Chris Paul is unquestionably the most important player for either team in this series. Paul is better than any guard in the league and setting up his teammates and commanding the tempo. It’s not a stretch to say that to the extent the Spurs are able to frustrate Paul, they will frustrate the Clippers’ offense.

Danny Green’s length and, frankly, sheer willingness to stick his nose in the fray will make him Gregg Popovich’s likely choice to defend Paul.  No one expects Green to bottle Paul, but, like Bowen before him, if Green can cut into Paul’s assist and FG% averages, the Spurs should win this series in a rout. If the Spurs are unsuccessful on that front, San Antonio is in for a fight against a Clippers team that has shown more postseason grit than any of us expected.

The supposed Parker-Paul matchup does come into play in relation to tempo. The Spurs like to push the ball up court and take advantage of early opportunities. If those opportunities don’t exist, the Spurs space the floor, work the ball side-to-side, and run through endless iterations of the high pick and roll. The reason this season was Tony Parker’s best-ever is that he effortlessly got the Spurs into their sets, and he is just as effective finding second, third, and fourth options as he is with the early opportunities.

Tony Parker is still, occasionally, a one man fastbreak. But this season he has found more running partners in players like Green and Leonard. One of the reasons the Spurs get into their sets so quickly is that players like Green and Leonard either leak out on the break or push the ball off their own rebounds. When this doesn’t happen, Parker masterfully shoulders the responsibility. The Spurs will push the ball all series, looking to get into the halfcourt as quickly as possible.

Chris Paul, conversely, will attempt to slow the game down, and thereby rob the Spurs of their rhythm. In a reversal of roles, the Spurs are the finesse team and the Clippers are eager for a slow, grinding series.

So don’t look too hard for a lot of Tony Parker vs. Chris Paul, man-up. You’ll be disappointed in the lack of fireworks. But do pay attention to the Spurs’ use of their wings on Paul, and, if you must evaluate this series in terms of a point guard showdown, pay close attention to the pace. The team whose point guard dictates the pace will win the series.

"Look like I'm telling you something important, Chris will be back in a second to draw up a play." (Photo credit: Matthew D. Britt on Flickr)

After far too long of a wait, we’re finally back to basketball. The Spurs come off their longest stretch of rest all season and face off against a team that went the distance and round one and last played on Sunday afternoon. We’re not sure yet who that helps or hurts.

Charlie Widdoes of ClipperBlog joined Graydon and me to answer three questions about tonight’s Game 1.

1. Where can the Clippers hurt the Spurs the most in this series?

Charlie Widdoes, ClipperBlog: Can’t believe I’m saying this, but how about on defense?  The Clippers showed against Memphis that they are capable of gritting and grinding when engaged, and Vinny Del Negro saw what his second unit could do when pressed into action. I could see a lineup led by Eric Bledsoe and Kenyon Martin causing some trouble for the Spurs if given the opportunity.

Graydon Gordian, 48 Minutes of Hell: At the rim and at the 3-point line. The Spurs defense is designed to prevent two kinds of shots: Shots at the rim and shots at the 3-point line. The Clippers are rather adept at getting both. Smart rotations and disciplined positioning are critical if the Spurs are going to force the Clippers into the long 2s that the Spurs defense thrives on encouraging.

Andrew McNeill, 48 Minutes of Hell: The 3-point line for one. Los Angeles is a good 3-point shooting team and they’ve got gunners galore, much like the Spurs. They’ve also got two physical bigs off the bench in Reggie Evans and Kenyon Martin, don’t be surprised if they pick up some flagrant fouls in this series taking shots at Spurs attacking the basket.

2. Does the fact that the Clippers last played two days ago give them an advantage in Game 1?

Charlie Widdoes, ClipperBlog: If it weren’t for injuries to their two best players, I’d say yes. But Blake Griffin’s knee is sprained and Chris Paul’s hip flexor is clearly…flexed. Both gutted out impressive efforts in Game 7, but Blake neither is as explosive as they’d be if healthy, and if they don’t heal quickly, that takes away the Clippers’ biggest advantages.

Graydon Gordian, 48MoH: Originally I would have said yes but, given the injuries the Clippers suffered over the last couple games of their first round series, I’d say any advantage Los Angeles may have had is largely negated. Either way, I’ve always been confident that, despite the long break, Popovich would have the team ready to play.

Andrew McNeill, 48MoH: I’m going to say yes. I think the Spurs are going to start out slow and out of sync in the first half of Game 1. How quickly they can recover and get their games correct will determine how they do in Game 1. Who knows, the Clippers might be able to steal Game 1 in San Antonio. The rest will help San Antonio the longer this series goes, however.

3. On paper, is Tony Parker-Chris Paul the best matchup in this series?

Charlie Widdoes, ClipperBlog: On paper, yeah.  But I’m actually looking forward to watching Paul’s backup, Bledsoe, get his turn on Parker. His series against the Grizz was a revelation to those who weren’t already on his bandwagon, and as the Clippers’ best perimeter defender, he’s the only one with the quickness to hang with TP. What can I say — as someone who makes Matt Bonner look like Usain Bolt, I am a sucker for speed.

Graydon Gordian, 48MoH: Well, it depends on what you mean by “best.” Their matchup is arguably the most critical, as they are the centerpieces of their respective offenses. However, if by “best” you mean most exciting or intriguing, I’ll take Tim Duncan vs. Blake Griffin. Despite Griffin’s injuries, I’m intrigued to see how Duncan’s intelligence clashes with Griffin’s athleticism.

Andrew McNeill, 48MoH: Yes. I’m very excited about this matchup. You’ve got two of the top 5 point guards in the league going head to head. They’re both great players with contrasting styles. Then you’ve got the fact that Chris Paul hates the Spurs for the same reason as the Phoenix Suns. Paul feels like his 2008 Hornets team was the better of the two some years ago and should’ve beat the Spurs in that second round series, but it didn’t happen. He’ll play with some extra fire in this series.

• • •

Extremely convoluted table, here. This summarizes the statistical performance of four separate teams, assessed on a per-possession basis through the four factors statistics. A primer on the stats: POSS is the number of possessions, Off/Def Eff is the offensive and defensive efficiency of the team, EFG% is the effective field goal percentage of the team (a derivative of FG% incorporating the added value of threes), TOR is the turnover rate of a team (lower is better!), ORR is the offensive rebound rate of a team, and FTR is the free throw rate of a team. For the four teams, I’ve chosen to show three variations on the San Antonio statistics (the whole-season stats, the last-third stats, and the vs LAC stats) as well as the statistics for the Los Angeles Clippers (which is placed with a red background to differentiate it). To provide an easier-to-digest way to analyze this monstrous table, here are two graphs. We’ll start by looking at San Antonio, from a high level view.

• • •

First, the Spurs offense against the Clipper defense.

A few items of note. The offensive attack the Spurs relied on was primarily rooted in shooting the ball really, really well. The Clippers hardly had a fantastic defense, finishing 10th in the league in EFG% allowed. Despite that, each incarnation of the Spurs absolutely blew the average shooting percentage of a Clipper opponent out of the water, and this led to the Spurs’ incredible offensive numbers against the Clippers in the regular season — their mark of 114 points per 100 possessions is absolutely incredible, and if the Spurs maintain that clip in this series, the Clippers may be done for. In the regular season, the Clippers were generally very good at cutting off the opposing attack by forcing turnovers, ranking 9th in the league at forcing opposing turnovers. Unfortunately for the Clippers, the Spurs happen to be the 3rd best team in the league at taking care of the ball. In a contest between the Clippers’ excellent turnover production and the Spurs’ excellent ball control, the Clippers lost out — in 3 games this season, they forced turnovers on 5% fewer possessions than their season average. On the other hand, the Clippers ended up with a notable upper hand in their defensive rebounding — Blake, DeAndre, and Evans absolutely shut down the offensive boards for the Spurs, forcing the Spurs well below their season average. The Clippers also were able to avoid fouling as much as they do against the average team against the Spurs, with San Antonio shooting almost 7% fewer free throws per minute than the average Clipper opponent. Keeping the Spurs away from free points will be a major key to the Clippers’ chances of staying competitive in this series. Now, let’s look at the Clipper offense versus the San Antonio defense.

This is where Spurs fans may be entitled to concern. While the Spurs were hardly a wonderful defensive team in the early going this season, the Clippers consistently picked apart the Spurs defense like few other teams did this season. They were overall relatively competitive in their three game gauntlet against the Silver and Black this year, losing by only 3 points on a fluke overtime-forcing miscue by Chris Paul in Los Angeles and serving the Spurs one of their five home losses on the year in a rout right before Jackson arrived. These numbers would tend to show why. The Spurs hardly held the Clippers to anything, as they allowed the Clips to shoot less than 1% under their season average. That would be fine, if the Spurs were forcing turnovers or keeping the Clippers off the line — unfortunately, they weren’t. The Clippers foul rate against the Spurs in this season’s three game series would have rated out as the #1 rate in the league, a smidgen ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder. The only thing the Spurs did notably well against the Clippers on the defensive end was eliminate second shot opportunities, taking the Clippers from their 4th-in-the-league offensive rebounding rate to a more paletable number that (over a full season) would rank decidedly middle-of-the-pack.

• • •

Having looked at the macro-matchup from a high level, we turn to three key player matchups.

MATCHUP #1: EVERYONE BUT DUNCAN vs BLAKE GRIFFIN

All things considered, I’d assess this to be the most important matchup of the series. This isn’t because I’m any fan of Griffin, mind you — I outlined before the season that offhandedly outlined why I don’t particularly like him, and followed that up with a midseason post affirming my preseason suspicions. Blake is a preening half-star, an Amar’e-style big man whose defensive contributions are often less than zero. He’s not at all a good defender, he’s an outright terrible one. And he spends far too many possessions isolating in the midrange despite his dominant at-rim power game that he can employ on virtually every big man in the league. A player like Blake should not be shooting almost 5 shots a game outside of 10 feet. He simply shouldn’t. It’s insane that he does, and a mark of a player that isn’t paying attention to how he can really take his game to the next level.

All that said? Griffin is a player that can absolutely kill you if you don’t cut off his path to the rim. Like Amar’e in his Nash-fueled heyday, Griffin gets buckets on an insane 74% of his attempts at the rim. I’d love to tell you that the Spurs did an excellent job shutting him down, but that wouldn’t be true. Blake shot 24-39 on painted area shots against the Spurs this season. The biggest problem is not (as some might expect) Tim Duncan’s defense — when Duncan and Griffin shared the court, Griffin shot just 10-20 at the rim, indicating that Duncan’s savvy was able to push Griffin out of position and keep him from getting the easy baskets he feasted on in the regular season. Duncan’s poor shooting against Griffin may have been a fluke — to these eyes, the poor shooting from Duncan seemed more rooted in fatigue. (Though I’ll get into a darker possibility in my closing comments.) The real issue when it comes to defending Griffin? Everyone other than Duncan.

With Duncan on the bench, Griffin made 7 of 9 shots at the rim, taking special care to destroy DeJuan Blair — with Blake and Blair sharing the court, Griffin scored on 9 of 15 shots in the restricted area, and an absurd 6 of 7 shots in the painted area. Tiago Splitter did an even worse job in fewer minutes, allowing Blake to go 4-6 from the painted area altogether. In a paragraph sure to set the comments page aflame, it’s worth noting that Matt Bonner did better in the regular season at defending Blake than all but Tim, forcing Griffin into an 8-15 performance from that area. The problem with Bonner isn’t the defense, which he does adequately — it’s the rebounding, which he emphatically doesn’t. With Bonner on the court, Blake averaged a pedestrian 19.3 points on 43% shooting per 36 minutes. Certainly a solid defensive performance, if you ignore the fact that he also averaged 17.6 rebounds per 36 minutes. THAT’S painful. And endemic of the problem facing the Spurs. Other than Duncan, absolutely no one on this roster has shown an aptitude for countering Blake Griffin. At best, Bonner turns him into a 20-18 player who kills us on the glass but doesn’t kill us on the block. For every minute Duncan isn’t on Blake, the Clippers will have a run available to them. Barring a miracle of rotation science from Professor Popovich, the Spurs are going to have far more trouble keeping Blake under wraps than they had in the first round with the Utah rotation.

MATCHUP #2: TONY PARKER vs BLAKE GRIFFIN

This is where the Spurs can — potentially — turn a close series into a blowout. The Clippers are a poor defensive team, but they’re especially poor at helping on penetrating guards, and ESPECIALLY poor at it when Griffin is on the court. To wit? See these numbers. When Blake was on the floor, Tony Parker averaged an insane 25-3-10 per 36 minutes, on 60% shooting that included 9-12 from the painted area, 6-11 from midrange, and two missed threes. The only true blowout the Clippers’ enacted on the Spurs this season came with Parker absent. If Tony Parker can produce consistently dominant play in this series against what may be the absolute weakest penetration defense the Spurs can possibly face in the playoffs, the Spurs will win this series. Rather handily.

MATCHUP #3: THE PAUL FACTOR vs THE GINOBILI FACTOR

Chris Paul — when healthy — is one of the 3 best basketball players on earth. Manu Ginobili — when healthy — is one of the 3 best shooting guards on the planet. The problem for both teams? Neither of these players is 100% healthy right now. Manu spent the first round looking like he needed an IV half the time, and Chris Paul looked like he made his team actively worse in the last two games of the first round. Both of these players are about as far off the reservation as they’ve ever been, entering a playoff series. Neither team knows quite what they’re going to get from their erstwhile star and overall best player. The real question — and the one that can swing a series — is what they can do when they’re hobbled. And in this case, I don’t like saying it, but I do think the Clippers have a pretty strong advantage here. Chris Paul flops like a baby seal when healthy — if you take his health to darker places, do you really think the referees aren’t going to toss him a bone? He’s Chris Paul, playing for a Los Angeles team. Of course he’s going to get the calls. I don’t think it would be altogether unexpected if Paul averages 10 free throw attempts a game in this series. Regardless of how poorly he plays otherwise, if he stays injured, the free throw / foul factor are those that can make blowouts close and close games lean their way. And it’s the advantage the Clippers will — if Vinny Del Negro does anything right — look to use.

• • •

I waffled on my pick for quite some time. Originally, believe it or not, it was Spurs in 7. I realize that this could be portrayed as a lack of confidence in the Spurs — I wouldn’t quite call it that, myself. I think the Spurs are the best team in the playoffs this year, and I think that — all things equal — they can beat any team in the NBA in a 7 game series right now. They’re playing incredibly well right now. They sport the best defense in the western conference, the best offense of any team still playing for keeps, and they’re rested. So, you might ask, why would I have this series as anything other than a gentleman’s sweep? Three core reasons.

• Chris Paul. Even if you assume he’s in a state of disrepair for games 1 and 2 (an assumption I’m not 100% on board with), the Chris Paul of today is in a better place to slice the Spurs to pieces than the Chris Paul of 2008 — his step-back jumper is better than ever, and if you think back, the main strategy Pop used to contain him in 2008 was to limit his repertoire to his step-back and not much else. If Pop does that again, the Spurs are in trouble. And in a close game, there’s not a single player in the league other than a healthy Manu I’d rather have in my corner than a seething Chris Paul. And don’t lie to yourself. That man is ALWAYS seething.

• Reggie Evans is the dirtiest player in the league, and although it may be blasphemy to say so, I’m worried about Duncan. If there’s any cadre of players in the league that I wouldn’t trust in a 7 game series, I’d take Andrew Bynum’s feckless rage over the calculated antics of Evans, Paul, and Butler over the course of a series. Evans virtually never gets called for takedowns, punches, and the strikings of a generally lower-tier big man’s ruthless impotent rage. He’s not as big as Bynum, but he hits just about as hard. And Paul (for all his positives) absolutely loves the special kind of flop where you flail your arms into your defender’s face and “hope” they don’t get the “incidental” contact. I’m worried about what Evans does to Duncan’s knees, and what Paul does to Manu’s nose, and what the rest of the Clippers’ do on the dead-ball fouls and out-of-line contact that rarely gets called for that Clipper team.

• The Clippers showed in the Memphis series that they can play a physical, knock-down style of ball. In last year’s attempt to conquer that style, various members of the Spurs did a poor job reacting to that — Tony Parker stopped producing, Duncan’s shot left him, and the bench laid down. This Clippers team is in no way as good a defensive team as that Memphis team, but keeping with point two, it’s certainly possible they choose to play dirty defense instead of good defense. And in the end, it’s certainly possible that has the same effect, and shuts down the Spurs offense. Thus turning what should be a hilariously easy series to the Spurs into a battle.

In the end, I cut down my prediction to Spurs in 6. Because despite all this, the Spurs are the better team. We’ve been playing incredible defense as of late, and our offense has been even better. Telling Gregg Popovich to outsmart Vinny Del Negro is like using your Buick as a flyswatter. And even though Blake Griffin performed well against our bench big men and the Clippers have Chris Paul, the Spurs have an unpredictable team concept and are without question a better team than the team that went 2-1 against the Clippers earlier in the year, with our only loss coming without Tony Parker. In the statistical sense, the best bet for this series (accounting for a banged up Paul and a busted up Griffin) would be a five game Spurs win. I’ll give them another game, because while I’m not altogether afraid of the Clippers, I’m afraid of Reggie Evans and I think Chris Paul’s twenty six thousand free throw attempts per game will probably swing a game or two. But even though I get ill tidings from this series, I can’t possibly pick the Clippers for more. Spurs in 6.

(And between you and me? I really hope I’m overestimating the buggers. I do not like the Clippers, sam I am.)

• • •

	Tim Varner_	Graydon Gordian_	Andrew McNeill_	Jesse Blanchard_	David Menendez Aran_	Aaron McGuire_	Chris Blackmon
SAS vs LAC	SAS in 4	SAS in 5	SAS in 6	SAS in 5	SAS in 5	SAS in 6	SAS in 4
OKC vs LAL	OKC in 6	OKC in 6	OKC in 6	OKC in 5	OKC in 6	OKC in 5	OKC in 6

This shot is a good shot. (Photo credit: Mark Krynsky on Flickr)

I’m not a huge fan of advanced statistics. I appreciate their value in basketball conversations and know that they have their place, I just haven’t quite figured out my spot in the revolution. Part of it is that I don’t understand many of them and another is that I haven’t figured out how to apply many of the ones I do know. However, one of my favorite aspects of the plethora of basketball data we have at our disposal currently is the shot location information.

Shot locations help tell both micro and macro stories. You can see where a team likes to get shots over a single game or a full season. Coupled with other data, you can see that maybe the reason the Bobcats were so bad is because they took the most shots in the league per game from 16-23 feet, often thought of as the least efficient shot in basketball. It could also be because they played Byron Mullens 22 minutes per game, but I digress.

While many advanced statistics tell you a “what,” shot locations can often give you a “why.”

A lot of times, when you ask Gregg Popovich about playing another team, whether it’s stopping a particular scorer or avoiding a certain shot blocker, he gives the same type of response. Usually, it’s something along the lines of it doesn’t matter as long as we’re able to do what we want to do. To Pop and the Spurs, the game isn’t about making adjustments for every team and countering each little thing a team does, it’s about imposing your will on the game and accomplishing the things you need to do to win. Think less about what the other team is trying to do and more about what you need to do to execute your gameplan. Yes, the other team is trying to prevent you from doing your thing, that’s why you have to be especially sharp.

All of this is why shot locations have become something that I enjoy to look at. They tell the story of how a team was able to control a game and manipulate what the other team wanted to do. Chances are, if the Spurs are able to get the shots they normally take, they’re going to be in good shape. Likewise if they’re able to concede the shots that they want to give up and prevent the opponents from getting their normal looks.

Heading into the Spurs’ second round series against the Los Angeles Clippers, we see some interesting numbers that paint a picture of two very different teams. The Spurs created the most efficient offense in the league during the regular season by getting a number of shots at the rim and open 3-pointers. The Clippers, on the other hand, had the fourth most efficient offense by doing this a far different way.

With names like Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Kenyon Martin, you would expect the Clippers to have a large number of shots at the rim. Then you remember that Los Angeles won the battle for Caron Butler and his jab step-jab step-jab step-pump fake-18 footer-style offense. The Clippers took 22.5 shots per game at the rim, sixth fewest in the NBA. From nine feet and in, Los Angeles totals just 32.5 shots a game. Conversely, the Spurs take over 38 shots per game inside of nine feet.

Where it will be important to watch in this series is how often the Spurs are able to get shots at the rim. The Spurs take over 25 shots per game at the rim, but the Clippers allowed the third fewest shots around the basket in the league during the regular season. This is one of those if we have our way sorts of things.

Where you can expect both teams to be similar is from behind the 3-point line. The Clippers are very similar to the Spurs in how they value the 3-point shot, especially the corner 3. Los Angeles was fifth in the league in the regular season in 3-point attempts. The Spurs were seventh. Both teams like to suck the defenses in and kick out for open 3-pointers. Defensively, the Clippers give up a lot of 3s. They gave up the 8th most attempts per game from behind the arc. It’s not like they just handed the other team 3s, but they sure give up a lot of them.

The Spurs are more interested in running shooters off the 3-point line, forcing them into the middle ground where shots are less efficient. Keep an eye on how many 3-point attempts the Clippers get in this series. If they’re shooting 20+ per game, they’ll be getting their way. Less than 20 and the Spurs are doing a good job of keeping the Clipper offense off its spots.

There are a number of options we have to look at with shot locations. We can look at where a team gets its shots in crunch time situations (Note: Chris Paul teams are usually very good crunch time teams) and we see where individual players are getting their shots in games. Shot location statistics are an important tool in evaluating games and one of my favorite things to come out of the statistical revolution. With the Spurs they help tell the story of who was able to do the things they needed to do to win the game. You can just hope that they tell the story of a Spurs win four times over the next two weeks.

All shot location statistics courtesy of Hoopdata.com

Hey, folks. I’ve been interested in a while in producing a post that examines the evolution of the Spurs’ defense as the season went on. It was one of the least reported (but perhaps most interesting) developments of the 2012 Spurs. In the words of Zach Lowe:

San Antonio’s defense, by the way, has gotten better as the season has gone along, even as offense league-wide has surged. In the last 15 games, the Spurs have allowed just 98.2 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would rank about fifth overall for the season, per NBA.com.

What 15 game stretch is he referring to? Why, the stretch from game 45 to game 60, of course. Our own Tim Varner asked me to confirm if he was telling the truth — the idea that the Spurs defense ranked around top 6 in the league over the last third of the season is rather incredible and, if true, would tend to act against the notion that the Spurs are a defensively pillow-soft squad that can’t shut down a fly.

Let’s look at the numbers, starting with a chart showing an eight-game running average of the Spurs defensive efficiency as the season rolled along. The dark black line represents the Spurs defensive efficiency (numbers from HoopData.com), while the dashed line represents the same eight-game rolling average of the average defensive efficiency among the entire league in those eight games. The number on the X-Axis represents the last game in the average — IE, a 9 represents the average defensive efficiency between games 2-9, a 31 the average between games 23-31, et cetera.

Contrary to popular belief, the Spurs actually haven’t spent the entire season with a below-average defense. While the Spurs were below league average on defense for two long stretches of the season — games 1 to 14 and games 26 to games 40, they produced downright excellent results on the defensive end for a ten-game stretch from games 15 to 25, actually outperforming their solid performance in the last third of the season from a pure “distance from league average” perspective.

In that particularly dominant stretch, the Spurs held the Magic to 83 points in 95 possessions, the Hornets to 81 points in 87 possessions, the Hawks to 83 points in 97 possessions, the Grizzlies to 84 points in 94 possessions, and the Rockets to 91 points in 94 possessions. This is rarely considered for being as good a stretch as it was, primarily due to the Spurs record at the time — from games 15 to 25 the Spurs actually managed to go 6-4, and barely held a lead on the Mavericks or the Grizzlies in the division race at the end of the stretch. Regardless, they did play some decent defense in that span, and we probably should’ve paid it a bit more heed.

This chart does establish a general trend, though — in the last third of the season, from games 40 to 66, the Spurs spent virtually all of that time producing a defense anywhere from 3-4 points per 100 possessions stingier than league average. In terms of rank, how does that fare among playoff teams?

And now, the kicker. Where have the Spurs ranked among playoff teams on defense as the season’s gone onward? Zach Lowe wasn’t kidding, even though you may have thought he was when you first read the paragraph. Among playoff teams, the Spurs were ranked #5 on defense over the last 21 games of the season, a close tie to the #6 team, the Atlanta Hawks. The only teams better over that stretch? The Bulls, the Celtics, the Heat, and the Knicks. In fact, to give you full defensive efficiency numbers over that stretch, here are the defensive efficiency rankings of each team in the 2012 NBA playoffs.

You may notice something. Of the four teams ranked ahead of the Spurs, only two — the Celtics and the Heat – look like good bets to exit their respective first-round series. Better yet? None of them play in the West.

In the playoffs, the Spurs won’t be facing a single Western Conference team that’s defended better down the stretch than they have. Rather incredible, given the overriding media narrative on the modern Spurs is that they’re all-offense and no-defense, to this point.

While the Spurs’ offense is significantly better than their defense, their defense is hardly as bad as most would claim it — indeed, it’s experienced a late-season renaissance that’s allowed the Spurs to survive games where their offense absolutely can’t get going. We’ve seen this in the grind-it-out affair in Boston earlier in our late-season streak, as well as during the final game of our first-round sweep over Utah.

The overall trend is quite positive for the Spurs, as is this one: the Spurs have managed to win six games this season while shooting 40% or lower from the floor (meaning that we shot less than or equal to 40% in 11.1% of our wins). Last season, despite their insane record, the Spurs won only once while shooting that poorly from the floor. This isn’t a matter of luck. The Spurs’ defense this season has played significantly better than last season’s, and while they certainly had their periods of lesser performance akin to last season, the Spurs we’re watching in this year’s playoffs are currently playing better defense than anyone in the Western Conference.

Now, to pour some cold water on everything, three key caveats:

• Late season performance has almost no added correlation to playoff performance, and in fact, early season performance tends to be more influential on who wins any particular title. See the excellent work of the imitable Benjamin Morris for the backing on that.
• The gap between the Spurs and the Grizzlies over the last 20 game is less than a single point, well within the margin of error.
• While the Spurs were able to keep their late season streak going against the Utah Jazz, I’m not certain the results of their first round series are going to be at all replicable going forward. Realize that the Jazz were a relatively weak team — while they sported the 6th best offense among playoff teams over the last 21 games of the season, they languished with the 15th worst defense in that timespan. A defense like that stood very little chance of stopping the Spurs’ attack.

That said, as Benjamin recently pointed out, it’s quite possible that normal trends for the added predictive value of early season performance will be overrated this year — after all, early season results generally come with every team at full health, in the peak of their conditioning, after a long training camp. Absolutely none of that happened this year, and it’s not at all out of the question to argue that mid-to-late season results reflect better on the current status quo for the league’s playoff contenders than they would in a normal 82-game season. And the Grizzlies are currently down 1-3 in their series, at the time of writing.

Add the fact that the Spurs were able to hold the Jazz (which, actually, were a good offensive team having entered the playoffs playing the 6th best offense of anyone in the second season) to the totals they did does speak rather highly of the Spurs’ evolved playoff-level defense. Also, it may be worth noting that the 1999 Spurs ended their regular season on a wild 19-3 tear just as this year’s incarnation ended on a 24-3 streak. (And an unrelated 22-3 streak on the road going back January’s OT loss in Dallas, that I can’t help constantly mentioning because it’s absolutely incredible.)

Really, though, it’s worth taking a step back and admiring the machine that Gregg Popovich has created. The last media narrative about the team — that it couldn’t defend worth a damn — has finally stopped being true. This Spurs team may not be perfect, but, warts and all, it holds the best defense in the West. It holds the best offense in the league. It has home court throughout the playoffs. And best of all? It has good health, for now. So, from my end, I tip a cap and raise a glass to the man who made it all happen, and gave us a title shot that nobody expected we had left in us.

Thanks, Pop. We owe you one.

There was a thought, however fleeting, that the Utah Jazz might be able to trouble the San Antonio Spurs with their massive front line, similar to what the Memphis Grizzlies did in the playoffs a year ago.

There was a time, also fleeting, when the name Devin Harris could cause equal concern in San Antonio.

As this series shifts to Utah, the Jazz find themselves grasping at straws for anything to help change the outlook of this series. If they’re to make even one game competitive it will not be on the backs of their large front line, but on the one who changed the very nature of a series six years ago.

Then with the Mavericks, a young Devin Harris was inserted into the starting lineup and proceeded to run circles around the Spurs while suffocating Tony Parker.

It was enough that when the Mavericks eventually traded Harris to the Nets for Jason Kidd, few were as relieved as Parker.

Harris arrived in New Jersey billed as a quicker, better defensive version of Tony Parker.

Now Harris finds himself down 0-2 to his one-time adversary, and his combined 12 points and three assists through two games seem like something Parker could knock out in his sleep; especially since Parker no longer appears to be losing any over this matchup.

Harris isn’t the first nightmare scenario Parker has overcome. Once bullied by Marbury, Parker eventually worked his way through that. And the hard fouls that the Lakers delivered in 2004? They now ring as empty threats from a hopeless team.

It speaks to the underrated toughness Parker possess, tempered by Popovich’s ire, that he has moved on past both. As to what it says about Harris, who should still be in his prime–that remains a mystery.

Injuries befuddled Harris in New Jersey, stalling a promising first season there. But he’s been relatively healthy in recent seasons and finished this one off on a promising stretch of games to help push Utah into the playoffs.

But unless the jokes about Jersey sucking the life out of everything are true, this matchup should not be so tilted.

After all, Parker and Harris enjoy similar builds and speed. Physically alike, the two represent very contrasting developmental paths.

Parker stripped his game bare, removing extraneous aspects of his game like a three-point shot or exaggerated dribble moves in favor of a repertoire that accentuated his natural gifts. Devin Harris, who once channeled his quickness so superbly on the defensive end, put time into his three-point shot and appears to have tried to accentuate his speed by simply trying to go faster.

Where Harris is able to channel speed, Parker is able to manipulate it. By changing up his speeds, directions, and angles, Parker is able to keep defensive players off balance.

Speed is a gift, but it’s not the end all be all in basketball. Like a Major League pitcher, even the mediocre hitters will eventually catch up to your 95 mph heat if you don’t vary your approach.

The Jazz, it appears, will opt to double down on what got them here. It would be beneficial for Harris to watch film of those old Mavericks games and do the same.

Parker torched Utah in Game 1 for 28 points and eight assists in a Spurs win, but Game 2 was supposed to be different. On Wednesday, Parker was supposed to take some hard fouls and earn his points.

Instead, Tony Parker saw more of the same and finished with 18 points and nine assists as the Spurs cruised to a 114-83 win to take a 2-0 lead over the Jazz in the first round of the playoffs. So lopsided was this contest that Parker and Tim Duncan didn’t even get to the end of the third quarter before Gregg Popovich pulled the plug on his regulars.

“I wanted to keep playing to stay in shape because I did not play a lot,” Parker said after the game. “[Pop] said ‘Okay I will give you two more minutes,’ and it was a quick conversation.

“After the next timeout with two minutes left, I went out.”

Parker started the game aggressive, zooming by Jazz point guard Devin Harris with a nifty stutter step on one play and diving through the heart of the Jazz defense on another. Utah may have actually planned to put a licking on Parker in this one, but we’ll never know because Tony Parker was in a gear so high that the Jazz defense couldn’t touch him.

This game was won in the second quarter, when the Spurs went on a 22-2 run to close the first half that made the possibility of losing Game 2 a Grizzly one.

“I thought we moved the ball great. Shooters were making shots,” Parked said. “Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard played great tonight and when they shoot the ball like that, it helps us a lot.”

Green and Leonard combined for 30 points and shot 6-9 from 3-point range, a significant improvement from Game 1 when the pair contributed eight points. An important next step for the young players is consistently producing performances like this on the road. The old basketball cliche is that role players hit shots at home but struggle on the road.

Although if Parker gets them open shots on the road like they received tonight, it won’t matter what gym in what city they play. They’ll have all the time in the world to knock them down.

The rebounding battle

Just as I mention in our Game 2 preview that I didn’t think the Spurs would win the rebounding battle at all in this series, they go out and sneak a 44-43 advantage in there. Truth be told, it’s a bit of a misleading stat.

The Spurs gave up 18 offensive rebounds to Utah in the game, the Spurs had just five. While San Antonio had a 39-25 advantage on defensive boards, that can be attributed to the Spurs shooting over 57% from the floor. There simply weren’t enough missed shots to go around for the Jazz.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll absolutely live with the Spurs giving up 18 offensive boards if it means the Spurs are going to shoot at least 55% from the floor. Especially when the Jazz only turn those second chances into 16 additional points. And credit goes to Tim Duncan for his 13 rebounds, he was a force on the glass for San Antonio.

Just don’t be fooled by the rebounding numbers.

Messin’ with Big Al

One of the big reasons the Spurs have managed to be an excellent team in terms of defensive efficiency in both games of the Jazz series, other than the inability of Devin Harris to do anything positive for Utah, has been the defense played on Al Jefferson.

Big Al is averaging just 13 points per game in the series and is shooting a hair under 42% from the field, which isn’t good considering the distance Jefferson is usually shooting from. Much of the credit for Jefferson’s struggles go to Tim Duncan, who’s been key to checking the Jazz big man.

“They’re getting him off his sweet spots, sending double teams from different areas where he’s not used to seeing them,” Devin Harris said after Game 2.

In the two games so far this series, Jefferson’s shot locations are all right in line with his season averages. The key must be where he is taking those shots and how he’s being bothered. The Jazz guards aren’t penetrating at will and drawing help defense, so the Spurs big men have for the most part had the luxury of staying at home on defense.

And there’s also the issue of help defense on Jefferson, as Harris referred to. The Spurs are notorious for randomizing their double teams, going all the way back to the Shaq Lakers teams of the early 2000s. Not being able to plan for an additional defender could really hinder a big man like Jefferson, who relies so much on fakes and spins to get his shots off.

“We’re trying to do the best we can on a guy who is very difficult to guard,” Coach Pop said after the game. “He’s one of those herky jerky guys that gets you off your feet and he shoots the midrange jumper very well.

“I just think he had a bad night.”

Utah has to hope the home atmosphere in Games 3 and 4 makes their shooters come alive, otherwise Jefferson may be in for some more bad nights before this season is over.

Coach Pop announced before the game that Tiago Splitter “is available” tonight, but didn’t sound like he wanted to play Splitter. Tiago has some sort of brace on that will allow him to play if need be, but Pop thinks Splitter will be in a better position to play this weekend. DeJuan Blair will slide in and assume Splitter’s minutes tonight as long as everything goes according to plan.

Pop also spoke some about the team’s pace, saying “Pace is very important to us.” Pop said that they still run the same stuff, they simply try to get into their sets faster through longer outlets, pushing the ball up court faster, etc.

Pop also emphasized that the Spurs’ transition defense needs to improve tonight against the Jazz.

1. What do you make of the hard foul comments regarding Tony Parker in Game 2?

Jeff Lind, Salt City Hoops: Nobody, including Devin Harris, meant this in a malicious way. The fact is, Tony Parker torched the Jazz in Game 1, and his effective dribble penetration was one of the primary reasons. If the Jazz are going to hope and make this  series competitive, they’re going to have to let Parker know they’re not going to let him dance down the lane at will. That means harder (not dangerous) fouls. I’m all for it.

Graydon Gordian, 48 Minutes of Hell: If the Jazz want to spend the whole game putting Parker on the line, let them. I don’t believe he will be easily intimidated. He’s taken plenty of hard fouls over the years. It’ll just make him angry. Not every player plays well angry, but I think Parker does.

Andrew McNeill, 48 Minutes of Hell: Eh. The playoffs are always physical and I don’t see Tony Parker as brittle as one Emanuel David Ginobili, so if he takes a few shots I think he’ll be fine. I remember Manu taking some big shots in those Spurs-Nuggets series in the mid-2000s and turned out alright.

2. What adjustments can the Jazz make in Game 2 to try and even the series?

Jeff Lind, Salt City Hoops: The simple answer is more Favors, less Howard. Unfortunately The answer that fans of Utah Jazz basketball want, and those that Ty Corbin want are very different things. Corbin leans heavy on veteran experience, and is opting to start Howard again. In John Hollinger’s playoff preview he said, ”The Jazz spent half the season sabotaging themselves by giving heavy minutes to veteran deadwood like Bell & Howard.” Everyone seems to recognize that playing a vet who is coming off a recent injury is a bad idea. Everyone but Ty Corbin. Start Millsap at the 3, and start Favors.

Graydon Gordian, 48MoH: Whether it’s from the low block or off the dribble, they need to attack the rim and they need to do it incessantly. They’re not a strong enough jump shooting team to get forced into as many tough threes and long twos as the Jazz took in game 1.

Andrew McNeill, 48 MoH: I wonder if the Jazz don’t try and go small to combat the Spurs. Play Josh Howard at the 3 and Gordon Hayward at the 4 in order to stay with the Spurs’ pick-and-roll and get out on shooters. It’s not like the Spurs are really going to punish the Jazz in the post for going small.

3. What do the Spurs need to do to get even on the boards?

Jeff Lind, Salt City Hoops: I don’t think they can, but I also don’t think it matters. The Jazz have a size advantage on the boards, and they clog the paint. The Spurs play a more finesse style. I don’t know if the Spurs will ever have better positioning for consistent rebounds, but with Parker and Ginobli penetrating the lane, their entire team (including bigs) end up with more open looks. And I’d take an easy shot dished to the open man over a rebound all day.

Graydon Gordian, 48MoH: On the defensive end all five guys need to crash the boards. Making sure the Jazz go one-and-done each time down the floor is critical. However, on the offensive end, I’m not terribly concerned about the Spurs rebounding. It’s more important that they be in position to slow the break.

Andrew McNeill, 48MoH: I don’t think they can get even on the boards. I fully expect the Spurs to lose the rebounding battle in every game this series. How much they lose that battle by will reflect the outcome of the game. They had Splitter and the guards crashed hard in Game 1 and the Spurs still lost the boards by six. Can’t imagine they’ll do a lot better in this series.

Pop received 77 first place votes out of a possible 119. Finishing second was Chicago Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau and Indiana Pacers Head Coach Frank Vogel was third. For Pop, it’s his second Coach of the Year award.

The stat that has been thrown around the most since the announcement is that none of the last eight to win COY have won the title. The last one who accomplished that double was Pop back in 2003.

At the press conference, Pop and RC Buford sat at the table and Spurs assistant coaches stood behind them. Pop was more grateful that you would expect from him in instances like this, it wouldn’t be out of line for him to blow it off and say it means nothing, but deflected most of the praise to his assistants and players.

Instead of trying to force something about the job that Coach Pop did this year, I’ll simply implore you to read two things. The first is Varner’s piece on Pop’s season from last weekend. The second is Rob Mahoney’s great post on Coach Pop and what he’s done to deserve the award.

There you go, keeping it under 250 words. Short and sweet, just like Pop would want.