Channeling the Popovich Critic: the Search for Answers

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I’ve never been able to bring myself to question Gregg Popovich when it comes to basketball-related decisions. Perhaps I’m being a wimp. Or perhaps it’s because he knows more about the sport and the inner workings of his team than I ever will, without question, and I’m not one to point out small mistakes along the way because everybody makes them. Hell, I had no issues when he put Tim Duncan on the bench just before the Ray Allen 3-pointer — he’d done it successfully all year in late-game situations up to that point, and I never even noticed his Timmy’s absence until all the post-game screaming — so why would I have any now?

Maybe that’s a weakness of mine in the coverage of this team. I don’t know. But I do feel comfortable in saying this: Last night was weird. By the time the game was over, my only rational thought was, the Spurs just freaking blew that game, and I have no idea how. After that, all I had were questions.

If Tony Parker was ready to play, why just 13 minutes and not a single second after halftime? Minutes-restrictions, caution with a big lead — OK, I get that. But then why play him at all? Duncan didn’t have the best game, and he was really struggling against the Pistons’ size, but you took him out with 4:34 remaining in the third quarter only to slip him back in at the last second on a crucial inbound play. Why? And what the hell was that play? How was there a miscommunication out of a timeout? And why did you foul when you were up by three? You NEVER do that? Did all those late-game shots opponents hit in December change your mind after all these years? WHY THE HELL IS YOUR TEAM SHOOTING 65 PERCENT FROM THE FREE-THROW LINE IN CLUTCH SITUATIONS THIS SEASON, PER NBA DOT COM? YES THAT’S CORRECT, I’M YELLING THAT LAST PART.

The thing about last night: You don’t see THAT game from the Spurs. Kawhi Leonard or no, you don’t see THAT team take a 54-36 lead with 3:55 remaining in the second quarter and proceed to TOTALLY BLOW IT over the next 10 minutes and three seconds.

Here are the numbers — and this is fun: San Antonio pushed its lead to 18 points with 3:55 left before halftime. Over the next 15 minutes, the Pistons outscored the defending champs 46-18. FORTY-SIX TO EIGHTEEN. The Spurs had as many turnovers (7) as they did field goals during that stretch, shot 28 percent from the floor and committed eight fouls.

Again, I want to reiterate: San Antonio took a 54-36 lead, then was outscored by nearly 30 points over the next 15 minutes. And you saw how it all ended. It turns out that Pelicans game was just a blip on the late-game-bad-luck radar for the Spurs.

When things go horribly wrong in such a quick, inexplicable fashion, I think the natural tendency is to nitpick — to try and point to specific things that went awry. A few paragraphs ago, I tried to channel the Popovich critic, because, in the moment all this happened, that’s kind of where my mind went. I don’t usually process these things in that way, but my brain didn’t have a logical place to reside at that point.

What happened last night wasn’t Popovich’s fault. After all, whatever game plan they arrived at the AT&T Center ready to execute seemed to work pretty well. But something happened along the way. It wasn’t any one person’s fault, something just happened. Manu Ginobili’s quote after the game basically said it all.

“I don’t have a word,” he told reporters. “I’d like to see exactly what happened. I don’t know if it was turnovers, bad shots, just things that happened.”

There certainly were turnovers — the Spurs committed seven of them during that span — but during that 46-18 run, San Antonio was absolutely murdered inside. The Pistons outrebounded the Spurs 21-10 and outscored them 28-8 in the paint. It was a massacre, and it happened in the blink of an eye.

I’m not sure where else to go beyond that. The funny thing is, this kind of thing happens all the time in the NBA; it just never happens to the Spurs. We’re not accustomed to seeing collapses like that, and while those of you who follow me and/or read my stuff regularly know that I regularly preach patience over panic considering all the circumstances, there is room for concern. The Spurs are not playing well. They’ve had games here and there over the course of the season where they looked like themselves, but it’s been incredibly inconsistent.

Forgive me for continuing to bring this up, but still stand by this: Don’t rush to judgment until Leonard is back on the court and healthy. For a team that still depends so much on Duncan, Ginobili, and Tony Parker, it remains a strange realization that Kawhi is this team’s best player. True, but strange. There are extra bells and whistles and better depth on this roster, but the Spurs without Leonard are just a better version of the team that was ousted by the Grizzlies in the first round of the 2011 Playoffs.

I tweeted last night: The Spurs are a one-and-done playoff team without Kawhi Leonard. With him, they are arguably title favorites.

There was a lot of flack directed toward me on that, from both sides of the argument, of course, because the Internet. There was also agreement, because the Internet. Right now, the Western Conference is a monster. It might be the best it’s ever been. Because of this, you have the right to be concerned by losses like these because of the effect they could have on the standings. San Antonio — fans, players, media — isn’t used to this position, so the feeling of discomfort is understandable.

But the line between elite and really good is razor thin, and the difference between the two classifications, especially in the West, is the difference between a title contender and a wannabe.

Just think about it. Look up and down the conference standings and tell me, with confidence, which teams you would pick the Spurs to beat in a series without Leonard in the lineup. Then, do the same with Leonard in the lineup. Which list is longer?

I realize I sound like a broken record, but I’m going to continue to preach patience as long as the Finals MVP is out of the lineup. Yes, the Spurs have offered legitimate reason for concern, but it’s all relative. You’re concerned because you’re uncomfortable. You’re uncomfortable because you’re not used to feeling basketball-related stress until the postseason. You’re feeling stress in December and early January because you’re spoiled.

Every year, 25 fan-bases around the league have to go through this discomfort, and every single one of their teams would be scrambling for footholds — if not outright free-falling — if their best player was injured and out of the lineup for long stretches. This doesn’t look like the team that won a title, the one you know so well, because it ISN’T the team that beat the Heat in June. It’s missing a pretty crucial piece.

The ups and downs and inconsistencies are maddening right now, and there’s no guarantee that will improve in the coming weeks or even when Leonard returns. But, if there’s anything that comes from this, it’s an appreciation for how slim the margins are in the NBA.

And, in some cases, how one player can make all the difference in the world.


  • Sean

    Good stuff. Every time Greg Monroe or Andre Drummond would push around our bigs, I kept hearing Akeem from Coming to America screaming, “YES, IN THE FACE!” I thought SVG blew it by taking Augustine, who had been carving the Spurs up on the pick and roll all night, out at the end.
    It’s amazing how many things went wrong last night and the Pistons still needed the game gift wrapped for them to win. Hopefully, these one possession games start going the Spurs’ way more.

  • Jordan Hedge

    All good points. Ultimately, Pop isn’t the one out there trying unsuccessfully to grab rebounds, or missing crucial free throws. However, when the Spurs margin for error in winning a game has suddenly been reduced to almost nothing, that small edge in coaching could swing games. Last night Pop had weird rotations, the Parker thing, the decision to foul instead of possibly give up a 3 (why are you fouling a 93% foul shooter regardless?), and his decision to not alter the defense at all as the Spurs got crushed in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

    In the end, I just find all these losses disappointing more than anything else because they keep putting themselves in position to win, but ultimately end up failing, and each loss that piles up puts them further away from good playoff seeding. Yes, the Spurs will be better when Kawhi gets back, but will it be enough to leave them with a good chance of going all the way?

  • Jennifer

    One game we r like wow…. that’s Spurs basketball, an(most) Other games were dumbfounded because they can’t seem to close out these close games. Lastnite Duncan was playing emotionally n would play that way for the rest of the game. Bad calls all….. night. more towards the Spurs. arms being pulled elbows landing on top of r Biggs n not called, travels, Double dribble and still nothing. You can’t c every play but u can’t possibly miss that many bad calls. SPURS NEED TO HAVE A WHOLE DAY OF PRACTICE JUST ON FREE THROWS. It’s absolutely ridiculous they can’t seem to make a free throw, AND IN YOUR OWN HOUSE!!!!! I ❤ my Spurs but this is driving us CRAZZZZZZY!!!!!!! PLEASE WAKE UP. AND POP STOP CHANGING WHAT U DO BEST. GO BACK TO LAST YEARS LINE UPS DURING DA REGULAR SEASON. N GET THE GUYS TO PASS PASS PASS.

  • Tyler

    The probabilities say you should always foul up 3 with less than 10 seconds left if you can, regardless of who the FT shooter is. Pop (and Danny who I think committed the foul) made the right decision. Unfortunately, it just didn’t work out the way they wanted.

  • Jordan Hedge

    Can you please point me to the documentation where this is emphatically proved? I’d also be interested to know how the stats of the FT shooters on each team and the conditions of each game variable (ie: ability lately of Spurs to just inbound the ball) come into play in that calculation.

  • Tyler

    The emprical data is certainly less clear - MUCH less clear than I thought originally. Having said that, given all the things that need to go right for the opponent to tie (or win), I think the probabilities still point to fouling. Oddly enough, SVG is a big proponent of fouling when up 3 with < 6 seconds (as I think most coaches are). The reason most choose not to foul however, isn't b/c they believe it's the wrong strategy, it's the fear of fouling in the act of a 3pt shot.

    Foul:

    http://www.82games.com/lawhorn.htm

    http://www.depauw.edu/ath/mbasket/images/up3.pdf

    Don't foul:

    https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/intentionally-fouling-up-3-points-the-first-comprehensive-cbb-analysis/

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/yet_another_study_about_fouling_when_up_3

    There are arguments both ways though.

  • Jordan Hedge

    I think fouling when up 3 at the end of the game makes sense in certain situations. If there was around 5-6 seconds left instead of 10 when the ball was inbounded, I would have had less of an issue with it, although I still disagree with fouling a great FT shooter like Meeks. He was fouled almost at mid-court.

    The thing I find weird is that Pop all the sudden decided to stray from a strategy he has always used, which is to defend well. Considering Detroit was only 3-19 from 3 at that point, fouling a 93% FT shooter at mid-court with 8 seconds left does not point to a great statistical outcome to me.

  • Graham

    after how much flak he got for NOT doing that in Game 6 of 2013 Finals? I don’t blame him in the least for rolling that out in a relatively meaningless January game just to see if it really would work.

  • Graham

    He’s got an open mind and likes to experiment in the season. We all remember Game 6 and not fouling being one of the subplots. Maybe he just wanted to see if this would work. Sure you’d rather someone else be the FT taker but you can’t always have that luxury when you intentionally foul.

  • Dapimp Ofdayear

    LOL great post, Jennifer.

  • Dapimp Ofdayear

    I respectfully disagree about this Spurs team sans Leonard being better than the one that lost to the Grizzlies in 2011. That Spurs team had the best record in the West that year, and oh yeah, the Big Three were all four years younger (although Duncan didn’t look it) than they are now.

  • Tyler

    Does Pop actually have a set strategy he employs in this situation? From how he normally coaches, he’s pretty fluid in his decision making; he normally plays it by ear as far as I can tell.

    And did any of the beat writers ask him about the foul/not to foul decision post game? Maybe Pop trusted Green to foul if he knew it wasn’t going to be a on a 3pt shot?

    Either way you cut it, SA wins this game 9/10x no matter the strategy employed. Fact is, SA helped out with a missed FT and a turnover.

  • Riotsmoke

    In my opinion, this game was the summation of the entire season so far for the Spurs.. Moderate expectations filled with high hopes, but constant groaning disappointments. It leaves me asking questions like what’s wrong with the starting unit? Are guys EVER gonna get healthy? What’s with all the crazy lineups and strange coaching decisions? Are we line-up tinkering or are we cashing it in trying to give the younger guys some PT? What do we do with Patty, CoJo, AND Tony now? Seriously, are we EVER gonna get healthy? When are we gonna actually play a game with our FULL line-up?

    Look.. I get it.. I honestly had moderate expectations coming into the season knowing that it was going to be an uphill battle if this team wanted to repeat, but it feels like last year was the year we gave it our all and this year feels like we’re playing with whatever gas is left in the tank. The “Meh.. Screw it, we won last year” attitude seems to pervade from the body language of a lot of these guys and, while understandable, it’s hard to be a fan and watch them just throw away games because of lackluster play and not look not even remotely close to the team they were last year.

  • Andrew

    I don’t think you should EVER foul up three, unless you’re able to foul a Rondo or Howard. Someone historically bad at foul shooting. But otherwise, it tells your players “I don’t think you can stop them from scoring”. Plus you increase the margin for error. The worst case scenario when not fouling is a tie game. The worst case scenario when fouling is losing the game: potential 4 point play or you are unable to make your FTs or god forbid inbound the ball.

  • Filemon

    Ill just leave this here again. I was really concern but this is good info:
    https://twitter.com/johnschuhmann/status/552466167906848769

  • Jordan Hedge

    That team did not have the Danny Green, Tiago Splitter, or Boris Diaw it has now, nor did it have a reliable backup PG. the Spurs only won the West that year because it was weaker than it is now, and the Spurs started playing the up-tempo offensive style so many teams have now adapted.

    But I see your point. I’d say the talent is pretty close (without Leonard), but the league was weaker overall that year and the Spurs just got caught playing a good team that was clicking while a few guys (Duncan and Ginobili) were hurting.