Could Richard Jefferson opt out (and would the San Antonio Spurs want him to)?
Heading into the trade deadline this season, Richard Jefferson and his roughly $14-15 million cap figured weighed on the San Antonio Spurs neck like a huge albatross, choking the life out of roster flexibility while counting down to an impending luxury tax payment.
It was a hit Gregg Popovich and RC Buford gladly took last summer (albeit with Peter Holt’s money) to give the team a chance at competing this year. Then, as Timothy Varner pointed out, the science was sound but the execution was lacking.
At the trade deadline, the Spurs might have done anything to remove the contract from their books. But time and circumstance have a way of changing things.
According to an article by Chris Tomasson over at NBA Fanhouse, Richard Jefferson might consider opting out of his contract.
“That’s a situation I think every player will look at at the end of the season,” said Jefferson, making $14.2 million this season and due to earn $15 million in next season’s final year of his deal if he doesn’t opt out. “I probably wouldn’t make 15 (million dollars) some place, but you could somehow recoup some of that over a multi-year deal and get some guaranteed money for the next few years.
“So you figure it out. If you’re able to get four years and 40 (million dollars by opting out) from someone, it’s like, ‘OK, I did lose out on 15 (million dollars). But I’m going to get basically a $25 million extension.’ Those are things that you think of at the end of the season.”
Jefferson obviously will not make anywhere near the money currently on his contract, but should he pick up his option he risks the Spurs not extending him and facing an uncertain collective bargaining agreement after a probable lockout season that will see the athletic small forward on the wrong side of 30.
For the Spurs, such an unlikely event would be a welcome relief from a business standpoint but could have dire basketball effects.
Since the articles chronicling Richard Jefferson’s struggles, two things have happened which have markedly improved his value.
First, Jefferson has become a very useful player, as my colleague pointed out after the recent win over the Los Angeles Lakers:
Jefferson’s rebounding and ability to score in transition are noticeably improved. Richard Jefferson was a must-be-accounted-for offensive threat against the Lakers, and this wasn’t the case earlier in the season. Some of this is Richard Jefferson’s growing understanding of the Spurs’ schemes, but most of it is his coach’s careful consideration of how to play him, and with whom. Richard Jefferson is no longer an offseason bust.
The second-as soon as the trade deadline passed Jefferson’s trade value shifted from Richard Jefferson the player to Richard Jefferson the expiring contract.
For all the money the Spurs would save in luxury tax payments should Jefferson opt out, it’s not like it opens up a trove of salary cap space to enter the LeBron James sweepstakes. With Manu Ginobili’s new deal, he is for all intents and purposes the Spurs big free agent of 2010.
Should the Spurs find themselves wanting in this year’s playoffs, their best asset for improving over the summer will be Jefferson’s expiring contract.
The current-and similarly expiring-collective bargaining agreement precludes the Spurs from signing new players into maxed out salary cap space beyond the league minimum or within the provided exemptions. But a team over the salary cap may improve through trades, provided salaries match up within a certain percentage.
Theoretically, the Spurs could flip Richard Jefferson and smaller assets to a team looking to cut salary (like the 76ers were looking to do with Andre Iguodala at the trade deadline), cashing in on the same economy and circumstances that brought Jefferson into the mix in the first place.
Should the Spurs lose Jefferson for nothing they face the arduous task of replacing a player of his quality, which while overpaid is still significantly better than anything the Spurs could find in the Developmental League or for the league minimum.
Whatever salary cap space the Spurs clear up this summer, or use of the midlevel exception, will (hopefully) be earmarked for Tiago Splitter. Beyond that, the Spurs would be looking to fill Jefferson’s spot in the starting rotation with players like Malik Hairston or Garrett Temple.
Is Richard Jefferson’s current play worth his enormous contract? No. But losing him doesn’t necessarily put the Spurs in position to find a better player or field a better team.