Duncan’s Brilliance Continues, but Spurs Trudge Along
Update (1:45 p.m. CT): Tiago Splitter is listed as probable for tonight’s game against the Knicks (calf). Tony Parker (hamstring) is questionable, as are Tim Duncan (rest) and Manu Ginobili (rest), Spurs say.
One dirty little secret in San Antonio: The Spurs were better last season when Tim Duncan was off the floor. By the numbers, at least.
They played faster, shot more efficiently, and defended more stingily — it was a strange dip from the year prior, when the big man recorded one of his best seasons ever in a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year campaign — but in reality we know those numbers lied a little bit, that it had more to do with bench depth and an often clunky starting front-court of Duncan and Tiago Splitter than it did any sort of Duncan decline.
Still, for whatever reason, San Antonio had a worse efficiency rating on both sides of the ball when Timmy was on the court, but this year has been different. As Splitter’s weird, malfunctioning calf crept up on him again over the summer and continued to keep him bench-ridden through the vast majority of the early season, Duncan found himself playing the role of anchor. And he’s been awesome.
The Spurs haven’t been great offensively, which continues to be weird. They’ve improved since the start of the season, but overall they remain just the twelfth most efficient offense in the league, per NBA.com. A top-three defense — which is an amazing achievement without Splitter thus far — has kept them in every game and has aided in what is still a very good point differential. Much of this has to do with what Duncan is accomplishing so far this season.
Only one Spur’s absence has more negatively affected games this season than Duncan’s when he leaves the floor. To no one’s surprise, that player is Kawhi Leonard, but Timmy’s impact this year relative to last season is kind of astounding.
San Antonio is just 3.2 points per 100 possessions better than its opponent this season when Duncan sits — second to Leonard’s .6 net rating; a year ago, whenever the Spurs’ franchise cornerstone hit the bench, the team was 9.8 points per 100 possessions better than the opposition. To put that in perspective, only two players’ absences had less negative impact on games last season: Cory Joseph’s and Austin Daye’s.
Duncan has completely flipped that script so far this season. The Spurs are 11.7 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents when he’s on the floor, and they’re once again suffocating offenses when he’s playing the role of anchor. San Antonio’s defensive rating of 95.2 with Duncan on the floor would be good for second in the league and more than five points better than last season.
But what’s made this iteration of the Spurs so successful has been the steady improvement of the role players around the veterans, and in games like Tuesday’s 100-96 loss in Salt Lake City, lethargy and poor shooting from the supporting cast will kill you.
Utah is never an easy place to play. A big front-court, tons of youthful energy, a home-court atmosphere that’s always made life difficult on the Spurs — that arena can be tricky. And any time you shoot 4-of-20 from deep and miss nine of 23 free-throw attempts, there won’t be much room for error. It’s been a weird week for San Antonio — a loss in Brooklyn, followed by impressive wins in Memphis (hello, Duncan triple-double) and at home against the Timberwolves — and these kinds of losses, especially when the shooting is that terrible (Manu) and three key players are missing with injury, happen from time to time. So there’s not much point in dwelling on it.
But as the days roll by with not even a peep of an update on Splitter’s status, concerns are starting to pop up elsewhere. Duncan was otherworldy again last night, going for 23 points, 14 rebounds, four blocks, and three steals in 36 minutes as he continues to play better in year 18 than he did in year 17. But his off-court splits were once again an issue. The Spurs were 16.3 points per 100 possessions worse when Duncan was on the bench than they were with him on the floor, and they were a train wreck (-11.7 net rating) on both sides of the ball in his absence.
As well as the 38-year-old is playing, losses like this one start to stir more cause for concern should any sort of attrition begin to settle in during the winter months.
Tiago Splitter is not art personified on a basketball court. He can be awkward and goofy, and his presence alongside Duncan in any lineup can, at times, clog up the offense a bit. But he is intelligent. He’s not a shooter but he’s a very good passer, and his ability to create space via screen-and-rolls on the perimeter along with dives and step-ins around the basket makes that a relative non-issue, especially in secondary lineups when Duncan heads to the bench and Boris Diaw slots in at power forward.
Aron Baynes has been a serviceable replacement in the interim. He’s played well, but he’s still like an oversized puppy — or, rhinoceros, maybe — trying to learn on the fly while crashing into walls (I mean, they hold the freaking guy out of practices in order to preserve the health of the OTHER players on the team). And he’s already 28 years old, so it’s not like his ceiling is super high at this point. Without Splitter, the front-court lacks continuity; it also takes away Diaw’s offense off the bench, one of the Spurs’ greatest weapons.
The Splitter topic has been written about ad nauseam, though typically from a defensive perspective. And rightfully so, as it has arguably become his greatest asset. But despite those my-god-what-was-that jump hooks and complete lack of a jump shot, it’s now his offensive contributions that are being appreciated. He affects both sides of the ball and plays a major role in terms of this team’s depth, and San Antonio needs him back. Duncan has been incredible, but the Spurs have spent years building balance so they wouldn’t have to lean too heavily on him; this can only last so long, you’d think.
Without perspective, it’s easy to get bent out of shape over losses like the one on Tuesday. The Spurs played some ugly basketball, and in doing so dropped a game to the team with the second-worst record in the Western Conference. It’s understandably frustrating.
But speaking of perspective: Last February, the Spurs ended the annual Rodeo Road Trip with a blowout loss in Phoenix, dropping their record to 40-16 and a 71.4 winning percentage. They then went on to win 19 straight games on their way to 62 victories.
After last night’s loss, San Antonio is now 15-6 — a winning percentage of 71.4.
The Spurs need to get healthy, but it’s a long season. Sometimes, these ugly December nights make it difficult to remember that.
