Early season injuries making for weird, unintentional transition season
Injuries have made this a weird first half of the season for the Spurs. They’re still stuck at seventh place in the West, two games behind the Los Angeles Clippers but just three games back of the Houston Rockets for fourth place and home court advantage. At the same they’re 1 1/2 games out of eighth place and both New Orleans and Oklahoma City are five games back, which means missing the playoffs isn’t a completely unreasonable thought.
Don’t get me wrong, barring another major injury, this team is making the playoffs. Somehow we all recognize Kawhi Leonard’s importance and at the same time underestimate his absence every time he misses a string of games. He’s the game changer on defense. Tim Duncan is the anchor and probably the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, but Kawhi is the disruptor. You know how we talk about people like Kevin Durant, LeBron James and now Anthony Davis and Steph Curry as someone who will blow up your defensive strategy? Kawhi’s does that other teams’ offenses. There comes a point however, where injuries might keep this team from even getting home court advantage. How much that matters this season is to be determined. This could be the year three out of four lower seeded teams making it to the second round. The top seven or eight out west are that close to one another.
There’s something else at play here. Right now, the Spurs have the 11th best record in the league. Even if they gain ground in the standings, it seems unlikely they finish with a first round draft pick any lower than say 25 and it’s likely to stay in the low 20’s because the top five teams in the East are probably going to beat up on the rest of the conference. That puts the Spurs in a different place when scouting the NBA Draft, there’s a different talent level in this year’s draft in that 15-23 range than in that end of the first round. Specifically, that mid-first round range has some defensive minded wings that could really bolster the Spurs rotation moving forward. Think about it, with no Kawhi Leonard for nearly the last month, the Spurs have really struggled defensively because they have one above average wing defender in Danny Green. With both Kawhi and Green due big paydays in the offseason, drafting said wing makes the most sense. Don’t get it twisted, Kyle Anderson has a future in the San Antonio Spurs rotation, but he’s not the defender they need.
We can assume Kawhi and Danny are headed for at least a combined $25 million in yearly salary this summer, which is going to leave very little cap space to go after a back up wing defender and re-sign Cory Joseph. The draft is where the upgrade needs to happen. With that in my mind, here are a few ideas.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, F, Arizona: Can guard every wing position on the court and has defended power forwards in a pinch. If he’s not the best perimeter defender in the draft, he’s one of the two or three best perimeter defenders. He’s a good ball handler, especially in the open court and incredibly unselfish. So why isn’t he a lottery pick. He either can’t shoot from outside or really has no interest in trying. The Spurs have fixed one 6’7″ elite defender’s jumper before, they can do it again. The other part about Hollis-Jefferson that teams will love is what a team player he is. Before the season started, head coach Sean Miller decided his starting five’s spacing would be better with RHJ came off the bench to make way for freshman Stanley Johnson. Hollis-Jefferson didn’t complain and willingly became Arizona’s 6th man (he’s now back in the starting line up). DraftExpress has him at 17, ESPN at 27 and CBS Sports has him at 28. Barring an uptick in his offensive performance, he’ll be there for the Spurs in June.
Delon Wright, PG, Utah: Before you scream “another point guard?!” relax. Wright is 6’5″ and has the ability to operate in the offense as well as defend both point guards and shooting guards. He has an improving jump shot and gets to the free throw line. He’s a ball hawk, picking up 2.5 steals a game and he rebounds well for his position. If Manu Ginobili retires, the Spurs could lose one of two wings that consistently get to the free throw line. At 23, Wright would also be as ready to play more than almost every other rookie entering the league. He’s playing so well he might not even be there whenever the Spurs pick. ESPN has bumped him up all the way to 17, so has CBS. DraftExpress still has him at 29, probably because of his age. Coincidentally, CBS’ Sam Vecenie has the Spurs taking Wright in his latest mock. I wouldn’t mind this pick except it doesn’t complete solve the back up small forward issue, but he could back up Danny Green and would provide a Cory Joseph replacement if he proves to expensive to keep.
Sam Dekker, F, Wisconsin: He’s a small forward, but he’s 6’9″ and really reminds me a little bit of Mike Dunleavy, Jr. His reputation a couple of years ago was that he was this 6’7″ marksman who showed some athleticism. Then he had a down sophomore year and chose to return to school. Then he showed up LeBron James’ summer camp two inches taller. He’s now recovered from an early season ankle injury and has looked great in the last month or so. If he adds some strength he should be able to play some power forward, but a 6’9″ wing that can shoot brings some versatility to a line up. One problem, his skill set could conflict with Kyle Anderson’s (he’s more athletic, but not as good a ball handler).
With conference play underway, it’s not too early to look at such things, but of course so much is subject to change in both the NBA and NCAA. We’ll keep you posted on prospects as conference play rolls on into the NCAA tournament.
