For Kawhi Leonard, It’s Been ‘Max or Bust’ Since Day 1
Things are typically quiet in San Antonio when it comes to contract negotiations between the Spurs and their players, and despite the growing profile of the young Finals MVP, things were no different this summer as Kawhi Leonard gained eligibility for a contract extension many believed would be inked by the Oct. 31 deadline for the 2011 draft class.
But in the wee hours of Monday morning, on the eve of the NBA’s opening night and the champion’s ring ceremony, Yahoo! Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski broke word that the two sides remain far apart in discussions to lock Leonard in as a Spur for the long haul. If there is no deal in place by midnight on deadline day, the small forward would enter restricted free agency following the upcoming season, where he’d almost assuredly demand a maximum contract.
Most NBA observers likely never thought we’d reach this point, as things in Happyville, U.S.A, just seemed too hunky-dory to allow for the possibility of a bump in the road. The Spurs won their fifth title, Tim Duncan opted into the final year of his deal, Tony Parker was extended another three years, Boris Diaw and Patty Mills agreed to return, Manu Ginobili was held out of the FIBA World Cup (which was a win for the Spurs, though perhaps not for Argentina), and Gregg Popovich upgraded his bench with the addition of international legend Ettore Messina and the NBA’s first full-time female assistant coach, Becky Hammon. R.C. Buford and Co. are batting 1.000 since mid-June, but extending Leonard would be the walk-off home run.
These are the Spurs, after all. From the outside perspective, the sentiment they’d end up extending Kawhi at a price less than market value was a prevalent one, but it was never the correct one. Quietly, with the Las Vegas Summer League playing as background noise to the free-agency firework show on full-blast, the feeling from Leonard’s camp was pretty simple.
“Did you see the contract Gordon Hayward just got?”
They may have been small and inconspicuous among all the “What sort of contract does (Player X) deserve?” discussions around the basketball blogosphere, but the signs have all been pointing toward Leonard and his agent seeking max dollars since Day 1. Kawhi is Brian Elfus’ biggest client — and it’s not even close — so it’s not just the player who stands to benefit by asking for the sort of compensation Leonard seems to be worth.
And speaking of the Gordon Hayward situation, it played out in a similar fashion. Last year at this time, the Jazz and the former Butler Bulldog were far apart in negotiations and were unable to reach an agreement by the deadline. But we’ve seen what happened since: the Charlotte Hornets offered Hayward max money — you almost always have to pay more in restricted free agency in order to put pressure on the player’s current team — and Utah decided to match the 4-year, $63-million deal.
Leonard and the Spurs may be headed down a similar path should they not reach an agreement by Friday, which wouldn’t be all that bad, considering they’d still be able to retain a guy who’s repeatedly been called “the future of the franchise.” But if the two sides remain in disagreement, it could make for a tense summer.
San Antonio has long been brilliant in its cap management, and next offseason could come with gobs of cash given the sort of expiring contracts that currently exist on the payroll (remember, this could be it for Manu and Tim, a duo that combines to make more than $17 million). And with the Parker extension in mind, this clearly isn’t a team that’s interested in a rebuild once the Duncan era comes to an end, if that ever freaking happens. It would make sense to ensure the return of a two-way monster for the point guard to run alongside.
And Leonard, despite the relatively pedestrian average statistics he’s accumulated in his first three seasons, is a monster, particularly on defense. The max-contract discussions arrive every summer in intensive fashion when it comes time for teams to hand out contracts to players looking to re-up or sign elsewhere, and the reality is maximum deals are likely offered more liberally than they should be. In relative terms, the percentage of players actually deserving of the largest possible paycheck is lower than the percentage of players who’ve actually inked max deals, but there’s only so much teams can control against an increasingly competitive market.
Regardless of whether or not it would be true in a vacuum, Leonard is a max player in today’s climate, especially considering that sort of salary will likely be great value once the new TV deal kicks in a couple of seasons from now. His numbers don’t scream it — he’s averaged just 28 minutes per game while playing with a very deep, spread-the-ball-around kind of team — but the impact he has on both sides of the floor measures out similarly to that of some of the elite young players in the league.
Of all players taken in the last five NBA drafts that have played actual regular-season minutes (so, the 2014 class excluded, obviously), Leonard falls behind only James Harden, Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis, and Andre Drummond in terms of win shares per 48 minutes at .177 for his career, well ahead of the likes of Paul George, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, and John Wall, according to Basketball-Reference. Five of those guys are already playing on max deals, two aren’t yet eligible (Davis and Drummond), and the best shooter on the planet is playing for the Warriors at a bargain that’s more of a robbery than discount.
There is no such thing as a catch-all statistic, but WS/48 is hardly the only one that reflects Leonard’s on-court value, and furthermore, the absence of positive impact when he’s on the bench. On top of the tangible numbers, Kawhi has quickly become arguably — and it might not even be arguable — the Spurs’ most irreplaceable player. Even on a team as deep as San Antonio’s, Leonard’s size, skill-set, and potential are unmatched at his position on this roster.
Is Kawhi on par with the players listed above? Not all of them, no — not as a polished, first or second option offensively. And he may never reach the point where he is a team’s top offensive threat (though he is developing). But he’s an elite defender already, and that can’t be glossed over. Given the current going rates, where Parsons and Hayward are going for damn near the highest possible dollar, Leonard is worth every bit of the rookie-extension max, especially considering the “Derrick Rose Rule” does not apply here.
So, particularly in advance of the upcoming TV deal that could blow the salary cap ~$15 million skyward, why are the Spurs “balking” at Leonard’s salary demands while teams like the Mavericks (Parsons), Jazz (Hayward), and others are willing to dish out this kind of money, especially for a player of Leonard’s quality? If he hits restricted free agency it would be surprising¹ if there were no takers on a max offer, so why not take care of the situation now, lock him up for the future, and avoid any disasters — like Kawhi taking the one-year qualifying offer next summer and hitting unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2016 — in the mean time while avoiding further uncertainty?
¹There is a potential turn-off for outside teams looking to make an offer in that it’s almost a certainty the Spurs would match any offer sheet extended, so tying up their time and money during a big free-agent period could be less than ideal. Then again, he might be the kind of player that’s worth the effort if timed correctly.
Actually, waiting might make sense. Yes, they run the risk of the previously mentioned disaster scenario — see Greg Monroe in Detroit — as well as an outside team coming in and taking the same approach the Mavs did with Parsons, offering a two-year deal with a third-year player option that could make Leonard an unrestricted free agent in the middle of the salary-cap explosion. That could potentially force the Spurs to pay a price substantially larger on a contract that would expire three years earlier than a max extension would if given now.
Still, the Spurs are in no rush. They’ll always have most of the leverage going forward in their negotiations with Leonard — San Antonio can max him now, they can max him next summer (if they feel he’s worth it, of course), and they can match any offer extended his way should he reach restricted free agency. The only risk Popovich and Buford run is alienating him or creating enough tension that their young star decides to put off a big payday for an extra year in order to reach unrestricted free agency, but this almost never happens unless the player is particularly disgruntled. I doubt that is or ever will be the case with Leonard and the Spurs.
But if you look closely at the situation, there appears to be a clear motive, above all others, for San Antonio to wait until next summer. This franchise is on the precipice of a major organizational change with the possible retirements of two cornerstones in Duncan and Ginobili, and the Spurs have set themselves up to forgo the post-Timmy rebuilding process with a ton of cap space and roster flexibility.
Only five players have guaranteed roster spots heading into next year — Parker, Diaw, Splitter, Mills, and Anderson — and the team could be looking at upwards of $35 million in cap space if all expiring contracts are renounced. Of course, this won’t happen, as the Spurs aren’t simply going to gut the roster (Danny Green is due for a payday) given their recent commitment to Parker. But if San Antonio waits until next summer to re-sign Leonard, it could save around $9 million, even if it offers the same type of deal then that is available to them now.
Here’s how.
If the Spurs offered Leonard a maximum extension today, that number would kick in immediately following the 2014-15 season at a price tag north of $16 million — the estimated worth of a max salary for a player coming off his rookie-scale contract. But, should the front office wait until next summer, they could actually take advantage of a cap hold worth much less than that.
Cap holds don’t normally work this way, where a player’s theoretical value on the open market is significantly higher than it is in terms of actual dollars on the payroll in the form of a cap hold. But Leonard’s hold, should the Spurs hold off on an extension this week, would be just under $7.3 million next summer rather than ~$16.5 million. You can get a lot done in free agency with an extra $9 million in your pocket, but San Antonio would have to act swiftly and deftly to make sure it all goes right.
Should this be the approach they choose, they’ll have to conduct their non-Kawhi free-agent business before attempting to re-sign him. Remember, San Antonio owns Leonard’s Bird Rights, which means it can go over the cap to bring him back. Whatever cap room is available — or however much the Spurs are willing to spend outside of Kawhi — must be used before dealing with Leonard. And that won’t be easy, considering teams will likely be aggressive in their pursuit of the Finals MVP. Would San Antonio be able to convince him to hold off on the pursuit of a contract elsewhere by promising him on the side, “Hey, we’re going to take care of you, but just give us a little time so we can build around you”? Maybe. But an agreement on the side is much different than a sparkly contract sitting on a desk in front of you.
If Leonard signed an offer sheet from another team in this scenario, the Spurs would have three days to sign other free agents before matching, and that’s not a ton of time. Ask Houston how well that went with Parsons over the summer. That situation was a little different, but they tried to take advantage of that same loophole.
It’s all a bit of a stressful situation, especially considering what this young player has already accomplished. Fans of the Spurs are accustomed to seeing pay-cuts and discounts — Parker’s never made more than $12.5 million; Ginobili’s never made more than $14.7 million; Duncan’s taken several well-publicized slashes in his salary over the years — but that’s not really how the NBA works. Leonard is a young player who’s been stuck on a rookie deal at a draft slot that has turned out to be far too low, so it’s totally reasonable for him to want to maximize his earnings while he can.
As the NBA season opens tonight in San Antonio, we’ve certainly got a hell of a side story on our hands. Should the Spurs give in and provide an extra level of security and comfort by re-signing Leonard now, or should the front office bide its time and assume an extra level of risk in order to maximize financial flexibility in the future? That’s a tough question. Also, it should be mentioned, we don’t even know if Duncan and Ginobili are going to retire after the season. Maybe they return, in which case the team probably needs to buy in now with Kawhi, as there wouldn’t be enough cap space next summer to take on that risk anyway. You’re putting the Leonard signing off now in anticipation of cap space that could bring in another max-contract-type player (and perhaps another high-end mid-level player); if Timmy and Manu re-sign, there won’t be that luxury.
The league’s revenue cup is about to runneth over, and the Spurs are looking like they’ll have an ample amount of space to absorb this sort of max contract. It’s not like we’re talking the Carmelo- or LeBron-style supermax here. Regardless, I expect the two sides to agree on a deal at some point, whether that’s now or later. It would be a shame if this blew up in San Antonio’s face, as the trade to bring Leonard to town was possibly the best transaction the Spurs have pulled off under the current regime. His presence has completely transformed the franchise’s trajectory, both in the Duncan era and beyond.
Is Kawhi Leonard really a max-contract player? In today’s climate, absolutely, and I ain’t mad at him for chasing it.
