Going Small?

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One of the most important coaching decisions facing Popovich this series is whether or not to play small. Coach Popovich was forced to play small in ’06 because the Mavericks were too fast for that season’s Spurs roster. If you remember, Avery Johnson had Devin Harris, Jason Terry and Josh Howard running down the Spurs’ throats, which made guarding Dirk Nowitzki on the kick out a near impossibility. Back then, only Tony Parker had the speed to keep up with the opposing guards. The Mavericks are not quite as fast as before, but they’re still a menace to contain. Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Josh Howard and J.J. Barea are all capable of hurting San Antonio. The question, then, is should Pop match small for small?

If Pop decides to play small, he’ll likely use Ime Udoka at power forward, with either Tim Duncan or Drew Gooden at center. Ime Udoka is an excellent rebounder for his size and could body Dirk Nowitzki and, say, Brandon Bass on the defensive end. This could provide a reasonably effective line up, but without Manu Ginobili I doubt it will provide enough offense for the Spurs to stick with it for too long. But it’s not a bad line up, and we shouldn’t lurch toward the television if Pop decides to employ it from time to time.

This series, unlike past seasons, Popovich has the option of more post scoring. Because of this-and the Ginobili injury-I expect Popovich to stick with a standard fare 5-man unit. As I mentioned in another post, the Spurs best defense of Dirk Nowitzki is forcing him to defend. Because of this, Pop would be well-served to run Tim Duncan and Drew Gooden together, early and often. If the Spurs employ a 3.5 bigman rotation of Tim Duncan, Drew Gooden and Matt Bonner (and Kurt Thomas, situationally), Dirk Nowitzki will have to defend every minute he’s on the floor. Moreover, a three-headed attack of Duncan-Gooden-Bonner should force the slow-footed Erick Dampier or ill-equipped Ryan Hollins into foul trouble. Attacking Dallas’ interior defense also provides the Spurs opportunity to make up for the loss of Manu Ginobili’s scoring through interior buckets and foul shots.

  • ChillFAN

    Today’s Mavs frontcourt of Dampier, Bass (Diop) and Dirk has essentially not changed, but thanks for mentioning the key differences for “going small” now. While I agree that Manu (now Tony) benefit from space, Gooden, Thomas, and Bonner are so much better offensively than Oberto/Nazr/Rasho that I lean toward a traditional lineup.

    Pop’s gonna play with minutes and rotations like a mad genius, and I can’t wait to read everyone’s thoughts. The question is when, not IF we see JV. Get your drug of choice ready.

    Spurredon, despite ESPN’s hype, the Blazers’ only advantage on LA is their fans. They are a poor man’s version of the Lakers in every single aspect. Brandon, Kobe; Nate, Phil; on and on all the way to Oden, Bynum.

    Dfly, we ARE light years behind the Lakers because of more than just Gasol. Bynum will probably be the most dominant center in the West next year, and Mahinmi? They seem to have found young pieces while ours have aged. Nevermind Gino, Tim’s future is a huge question mark. But your point is well taken, the Lakers/Kobe/Phil were more of a joke than a Manu and Tim-injured Spur team. They picked high in the draft while the Spurs added another championship.

    The Spurs are at their best when the sports world claims its watching 48 minutes of hell. Sorry Dallas, while your coach tolerated mediocrity all season, the Spurs were all-out champions focused on number five all year. We are too old and too stubborn to change now.

  • SpurredOn

    Timothy,

    Though I believe in defense first, I like to imagine where the points are going from once the playoffs start. Much easier to predict rotations and you know that typically the stars play more minutes. With this thought, I too was thinking what did Manu bring that we must duplicate (FTs, forcing opposition into the penalty, 3pt shooting, assists) and what intangibles we likely can not (road assassin, pest, ferocity, key steals, rebounds and shots; basically the “it” factor that can’t be duplicated). The most key stats that Manu provided must now be picked up by Parker (points & assists), Gooden (rebounds & fouls forced), and 3pt FG (Mason).

    I’m imagining a series where our points per game come as such:
    TP & TD= 50-55 / Mason 13-17/ Gooden 12-16 / Finley 8-12 /Udoka & Bonner 15-23 / Kurt & Fab 2-5.

    I’m assuming that any points we get from Bowen or Hill will be gravy as that is harder to predict. I also imagine TP will avg around 30 due to matchups and need. That leaves us at about 100 ppg with obvious potential for more based on pace, FG%, etc. The ascension of TP will help with lost points from Manu, but the overall team potential is in slightly better shape than this time last season. Then we were hoping that the Big-3 would combine for 75+ which left us vulnerable when Manu got hurt, thus the double digit losses in every road loss except two.