How Should the Spurs Spend Their MLE?

by Timothy Varner

L.J. Ellis has written a superb breakdown of the top big men free agents available to the Spurs.  I’m with him, and the majority of our commenters, in naming Rasheed Wallace the most attractive free agent available. I’d rank Antonio McDyess just behind Wallace, but beyond those two I’d think carefully about resourcing a significant chunk of their MLE for another traditional big.  This might come as a surprise to some, but let me explain.

The Consensus

The prevalent assumption is that the Spurs will target a big with their MLE. Looking at their roster, it’s clear that their front court is a big man short after the trade that dealt both Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto for Richard Jefferson. Around the draft, members of the front office indicated that San Antonio would target a big with their exception money. Come Wednesday, we’ll learn what player they have in mind.

The current frontcourt is Tim Duncan, Matt Bonner, Ian Mahinmi, DeJuan Blair and James Gist (not yet signed, only rumored). Or, put differently, one All-Time great, one role player, and three promising, but uncertain young players. The Spurs would benefit by adding a proven veteran to the mix, especially considering that the best teams in the league feature Shaquille O’Neal, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. The best way to attack these players  is to draw them away from the rim, forcing them to chase guys off the arc, or make them run through a gauntlet of screen and rolls.  Clearly Wallace can do those things, and his length and defensive chops match up nicely with the Pau Gasol’s of the world.

The argument in favor of Rasheed Wallace is convincing. If the Spurs are able to land Wallace, they should do it. Let’s call this Plan A.

A Forgotten Consideration

The only drawback to chasing Rasheed Wallace is the question of contract length. In an ideal situation, the Spurs would sign Wallace to the full MLE for only one year. But it’s hard to imagine Sheed agreeing to such an offer. He’ll want a two or three year deal, no doubt. The reason contract length concerns me is Tiago Splitter.

The Spurs have taken gigantic steps forward this offseason transforming into a younger, more athletic version of themselves. They can continue this trend by adding Tiago Splitter next offseason, but he’ll cost a fair chunk of the MLE. He turns 25 next January, so this seems like a more prudent way to tie up their long term money. If the Spurs sign Sheed to a multi-year deal now, it could jeopardize their ability to sign Splitter later. Aside from the difficulty of committing so much money to the front court, the Spurs may not be an attractive option to Splitter if they can’t offer him significant minutes.

If the Spurs simply let Matt Bonner drop at the end of next season, is that enough? I’m not sure.

I understand that the Spurs won’t, and shouldn’t, put championship 5 on hold for the potential of signing Tiago Splitter later, but he’s still an important consideration.

Thinking Outside the Box

Because of this, I’d like to suggest a contingency plan. The Spurs should not commit themselves to a second rate big (read: Nesterovic), especially at the cost of the full MLE. Instead, they should target a combo forward who can split time behind Jefferson or alongside Duncan at the 4.

The combo forwards I have in mind are (in order) Lamar Odom, Marvin Williams, and Charlie Villanueva.  These three players–in their varying degrees of availability–should be more appealing to the Spurs than many of the bigs available. If the Spurs were to follow the contingency route, they’d still need to plug their hole in the middle. I’ll address that in a moment.

Lamar Odom

J.A. Adande recently offered this assessment:

The reality is a team that is looking to spend money could use the midlevel exception of approximately $5.6 million in starting annual salary to make an offer to Ariza, although folks in the league expect the Lakers to retain him. Meanwhile, a Western Conference executive believes “if you’re in position to use the full midlevel for a couple of years, you’ll get [Odom].”

While Odom is more of a 3 than a 4, permanently moving Duncan to the 5 and allowing Odom to start next door is a workable option for San Antonio. The Spurs could play Odom at both forward positions, allowing him his due playing time while providing rest for Richard Jefferson and run for DeJuan Blair and Ian Mahinmi.

Odom is also uniquely interesting because of his ball handling ability. The Spurs could run small or big with as many as four ball handlers on the court at one time. Pop has done this in the past, but always by running an undersized wing at 4. Odom would allow Coach Popovich to run occasional micro ball sets, but with a player who isn’t so micro.

Best of all, Odom in a Spurs uniform is better than Odom in a Lakers uniform. The Spurs get a little bit better, and the Lakers get a little bit worse.

Marvin Williams

Williams is both restricted and less of a star than Odom, but he’s a great player that would fit nicely in San Antonio.  He has a good midrange game, emerging three point range, and isn’t a primadonna who needs the ball. I don’t doubt that he could accept a 5th man role without complaint.

The most intriguing thing about Williams is his age. At 23, he’s still a few years away from his peak, but he’s improved his game with each season in the league. In terms of transitioning to the next generation, Williams has the right game and age to stick in San Antonio for several years. This will sound funny, but he could be groomed as Richard Jefferson’s eventual replacement.

The problem, of course, is that Williams is an above average defender against wings and occasional points, not big forwards. He could guard some power forwards effectively, such as LaMarcus Aldridge, David West, Dirk Nowitzki. But his defense against a more imposing post player would put the Spurs at a disadvantage. The other side of this, however, is that Gregg Popovich could throw all sorts of Nellie-like small ball sets at the opposition by running Williams at the 4. For every unfavorable match up, Pop could create one to the Spurs’ advantage. He could play small and quick with the 6’10” Williams. That beats Mike Finley or Ime Udoka at the 4.

And, it should be noted, despite his thin frame, Williams is an excellent rebounding wing. Spurs fans know that Ime Udoka was effective on the boards, even when playing out of position at the 4. Williams’ per minute board numbers mirror Udoka’s. Plus, Williams is a natural catch and shoot player with tremendous defensive length.  By splitting his time at both forward positions, it would be easy to get him 25 – 30 mpg.

Charlie Villanueva

The downside to Villanueva is three-fold. First, his defense is mediocre. He wants to be offensive option one or two, and the Spurs would want him as a 5th or 6th option. And he’s not nearly as good a three point shooter as he thinks. The upside? He can score from all over the floor and would punish defenses who slacked off him or over committed elsewhere. The opposing defense would have to account for him. This is how L.J. Ellis put it:

If the Spurs want to go after a young player who could blossom into a star, Villanueva is a good choice. Though he’s more of a small forward, he could get away with playing power forward on the Spurs.

At 6-foot-11, Villanueva is a capable rebounder, picks up a decent amount of blocks and steals, and has improved his passing over the last year. However, where he shines is offensively. He put up 16.2 points per game this past season in only 26.9 minutes per game.

Villanueva can shoot from the perimeter, score around the basket and knock down the mid-range jumper. When it comes to scoring, sky is the limit for him.

The Associated Press is reporting that the Bucks will not make an offer Villanueva. He is available.

The Remaining Problem

The combo forward contingency allows the Spurs to add long term talent to their roster . And, in terms of assets, it allows the Spurs to stockpile a bunch of tradable parts in the event their 2009 reload misfires. Good and good. Still, how much can the Spurs reasonably expect from Mahinmi and Blair. They would still need to add an inexpensive but reliable traditional big to the front court.

As a matter of conjecture, here’s my best guess at the coming roster:

Parker/Hill/McClinton;

Ginobili/Mason/Finley;

Jefferson/Hairston/Williams;

MLE/Blair/Gist

Duncan/Mahinmi/Bonner

So, either Hairston, Gist, Williams or McClinton would not make next year’s team.  There is plenty of roster flexibility to add a big, but it would come at the cost of a young prospect. So who would the Spurs target?

Fabricio Oberto is the obvious choice, but represents the last generation not the next. Not all bad. Tim Duncan is last generation too. Oberto knows the system.  After Fab Oberto, I wonder about Dwayne Jones, who stood out last season with the Toros. Jones is a scrappy player. He’s great on the boards and could play if the Spurs were in a pinch.  Robertas Javtokas?

Talent is Talent

Ultimately, I think the Spurs shouldn’t limit themselves to a traditional big, although prioritizing one makes sense. If Wallace or McDyess are not available, making a run at a combo forward and waiting a year on Splitter seems like a prudent back up plan.  That’s my rationale, at least. My free agent wish list is ordered something more along the lines of Wallace, Odom, McDyess, Williams, Varajao, Villanueva, Pachulia, Nesterovic, and Gortat.

The Spurs already have their plan in place. And they’ll unveil it soon enough.